2014 WC Offseason grades (LONG)
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Dennis_D
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:07 pm    Post subject: 2014 WC Offseason grades (LONG)

>>>>>>>>>> Grade Summary <<<<<<<<<<
These are grades only for the teams' offseason beyond drafting the picks they had in hand.
Alphabetical:
Dallas: Incomplete
Denver: B
Golden State: Incomplete
Houston: F
LA Clippers: D
Lakers: A
Memphis: C
Minnesota: Incomplete
New Orleans: B
Oklahoma City: F
Phoenix: D, possibly an F
Portland: B
Sacramento: C
San Antonio: B
Utah: C

A good grade doesn't mean that a team is a good team and a bad grade doesn't imply a team is a bad team. A bad team that has a string of good offseasons will become a good team and a good team that has a string of bad offseasons will become a bad team, but one offseason usually doesn't effect a team very much. And again, this doesn't try to evaluate draft picks. So Cleveland winning the lottery and drafting Wiggins wouldn't be considered, but signing LBJ and trading Wiggins and Bennett for Love would be considered.

By final standings:
San Antonio: B
Oklahoma City: F
LA Clippers: D
Houston: F
Portland: B
Golden State: Incomplete
Memphis: C
Dallas: Incomplete
Phoenix: D, possibly an F
Minnesota: Incomplete
Denver: B
New Orleans: B
Sacramento: C
Lakers: A
Utah: C

>>>>>>>>>> Framework <<<<<<<<<<
I came up with a framework for evaluating offseasons in 2007 and I am dusting it off for this season. First, I assess the situation currently is in and then use what I think a team in that situation as a guide for judging that team's offseason moves. I did grades for most teams in 2009 and then revisited them a year later.

Contender
This is a team that thinks it has a chance to win it all. Normally to be considered in this situation, a team has to have been to at least the conference finals recently. Sometimes a team will consider themselves in this situation right after a major acquisition.

What the team should do
1. Keep their existing core
2. Add a starter or key reserve through FA or trade that can put them over the top
3. Trade picks as necessary for #2, but make your 1st round picks count when you do draft

Young Competitor
This is a team with a young (mostly under 28) roster that has made the playoffs, but is not good enough to be a contender

What the team should do
1. Acquire through trade or FA an All-Star that makes the team a contender
2. Keep the salaries sane so that tradeable players aren't overpaid and/or the team can get under the cap to sign quality FA's
3. Keep the young players who are going to become something and get rid of young players who aren't
4. Don't sign veteran FA's to big contracts unless they are a #1 type player
5. Drafting provides some talent, but player development is the main source of improvement

Veteran Competitor
This is a team with an old (mostly over 27) roster that has made the playoffs, but is not good enough to be a contender

What the team should do
#1 Try to find that magic veteran that makes the team a contender like Chandler did for the '10-'11 Mavericks
OR
#2 Trade their veterans for young talent and/or let their contracts expire and then rebuild
OR
#3 Figure out how to replace all but their franchise player with quality young players

Rebuilding Team
This is a team that has recently dumped most of their roster for young players

What the team should do
1. Making the right draft pick is critical
2. Get rid of and don't acquire expensive veterans
3. Keep what young talent they have
4. Maintain salary cap flexibility so they can soon sign a top-notch FA

Young But Bad Team
Teams that are young, not good enough to make the playoffs but not bad enough to get a great pick to get them over the hump. Classic examples: '02-'06 Warriors, '01-'05 Clippers, '83-'99 Kings, '86-'01 Nets

What the team should do
1. Pray for luck in the lottery
2. Keep their young talent but don't overpay them
3. Trade some of their young talent for an All-Star that can turn the team around
4. Hire an excellent coach who can install a winning attitude

Failed Rebuild
The GM blew up the team, got a high pick, signed some FA's and the team peaks at barely making the playoffs. Now the team is locked into some big dollar long-term contracts and has to re-sign its high draft pick(s). It will take years to undue the damage of the failed rebuild.

What the team should do
1. Fire the GM. He had his big chance and blew it
2. Be patient as it will take a long time to for those big dollar long-term contracts to expire

Bad And Expensive
These team have payrolls well over the salary cap and possibly in the luxury tax, but have few wins to show for it. They have decent young talent which they are overpaying and which no other team wants because they are overpaid. It will take years to get out of this situation.

What the team should do
1. Fire the GM. He had his big chance and blew it
2. Be patient as it will take a long time to for those big dollar long-term contracts to expire

>>>>>>>>>> Grading Methodology <<<<<<<<<<
If a team drafted with the picks they had and made no major moves, then I gave them a "C". If they made a significant move that helped the team outside of drafting with their current picks, then I gave them a "B" (or a "D" if the significant move hurt the team). I gave a team an "A" or an "F" for multiple significant moves that helped or hurt the team. By significant, I mean a rotation player or a first round pick-quality young player.

>>>>>>>>>> Grades <<<<<<<<<<
Dallas: Incomplete
Veteran Competitor - lost in first round
What should have been their goals
#1 Try to find that magic veteran that makes the team a contender like Chandler did for the '10-'11 Mavericks
OR
#2 Trade their veterans for young talent and/or let their contracts expire and then rebuild
OR
#3 Figure out how to replace all but their franchise player with quality young players

Moves summary
* Re-signed UFA's Harris, James, Nowitzki
* Signed UFA's Griffin, Jefferson and Nelson
* Signed RFA Parsons from Rockets
* Acquired Chandler, Felton and Smith for Calderon, Dalembert, two bench warmers and two 2014 second round picks
* S&T'd Blair to Washington for some old sneakers and a TPE
* Lost UFA Carter to Memphis and UFA Marion to Cleveland

Comments
This might be the year the Mavericks playoff hopes die. In terms of minutes played, they lost 4 of their top 6 players and 5 of their top 8. They brought in Parsons, Chandler and a bunch of bad, old players. Four of their starters are good, but there is no depth. In ways, the Mavericks are the unLakers in that the Mavericks are refusing to rebuild while their franchise player is still playing. If their starters carry them to the playoffs, they deserve a C. If the team gets trounced, then a F. They can't keep putting of Father Time for much longer, then they will be a very bad team.

Denver: B
Not sure - 13 games out of the playoffs, ravaged by injuries
What should have been their goals
Not sure

Moves summary
* Acquired Afflalo from Orlando for Fournier
* Drafted Nurkic (16th), Harris (19th) and Jokic (41st)
* Lost UFA Brooks to Chicago
* Let Vesely go

Comments
The Nuggets fell from 57 wins to 36 because of injuries. The Nuggets were almost as injured as the Lakers were. Gallinari (ACL) missed the whole season, McGee (fractured leg) played 5 games, Robinson (ACL) 44, Chandler (injury prone) 60, Lawson (ankle) 62, Hickson (ACL) 69. Gallinari had a botched surgery and will miss more of the coming season. Who knows how those players will play when they come back? So the Nuggets played it safe, making one trade that was a clear winner.

Golden State: Incomplete
Young Competitor - lost in the first round
What should have been their goals
1. Acquire through trade or FA an All-Star that makes the team a contender
2. Keep the salaries sane so that tradeable players aren't overpaid and/or the team can get under the cap to sign quality FA's
3. Keep the young players who are going to become something and get rid of young players who aren't
4. Don't sign veteran FA's to big contracts unless they are a #1 type player
5. Drafting provides some talent, but player development is the main source of improvement

Moves summary
* Fired coach Jackson and hired coach Kerr
* Signed UFA's Barbosa, Rush and Livingston
* Lost UFA Blake to Portland
* Waived Armstrong
* Let Crawford and O'Neal go

Comments
Roster wise, not much happened. The Warriors made a huge gamble in firing Jackson, so the incomplete. I struggled with "Young Competitor" versus "Veteran Competitor" as their two best players - Thompson and Curry - are young, but their other three starters are around 30

Houston: F
Young Competitor - lost in first round
What should have been their goals
1. Acquire through trade or FA an All-Star that makes the team a contender
2. Keep the salaries sane so that tradeable players aren't overpaid and/or the team can get under the cap to sign quality FA's
3. Keep the young players who are going to become something and get rid of young players who aren't
4. Don't sign veteran FA's to big contracts unless they are a #1 type player
5. Drafting provides some talent, but player development is the main source of improvement

Moves summary
* Re-signed UFA's Daniels and Garcia
* Signed UFA's Adrien and Smith
* Acquired Ariza and a 2015 first round pick from New Orleans for Asik and Cassipi
* Acquired Terry, New York's 2015 second round pick, Sacramento's 2015 second round pick (protected for 50-60) for two expiring contracts
* Drafted Capela (25th) and Johnson (42nd)
* Traded Lin, their 2015 first round pick, the Clippers 2015 second round pick (but only if it falls in the 51-55 range) for some old sneakers and a TPE
* Lost RFA Parsons to Dallas, UFA Hamilton to Toronto

Comments
Losing Parsons was a own goal. The Rockets declined to pick up their team option for dirt cheap to make him a RFA and then didn't match Dallas' offer. They traded Asik and Cassipi to get Ariza to replace Parsons. They traded Lin to free up cap room to sign Bosh and then Bosh re-signed with Miami. They lost a starter and three bench players and replaced them with Ariza, the ancient Terry and some no-names

LA Clippers: D
Contender - lost in Semifinals to Thunder
What should have been their goals
1. Keep their existing core
2. Add a starter or key reserve through FA or trade that can put them over the top
3. Trade picks as necessary for #2, but make your 1st round picks count when you do draft

Moves summary
* Re-signed UFA's Davis and Turkoglu
* Signed UFA's Douglas-Roberts, Farmar, Hawes and Udoh
* Drafted Wilcox (28th)
* Traded Dudley and a conditional 2017 first round pick for Delfino, Radujica and a 2015 second round pick. Delfino and Radujica were waived
* Lost UFA Collison to Sacramento, UFA Granger to Miami, UFA Hollins to Sacramento
* Waived Willie Green

Comments
Lost a significant part of their bench and got only one solid bench player to take their place

Lakers: A
A rebuilding team with a couple of aged former All-Stars that was ravaged by injuries last year
What should have been their goals
1. Making the right draft pick is critical
2. Get rid of and don't acquire expensive veterans
3. Keep what young talent they have
4. Maintain salary cap flexibility so they can soon sign a top-notch FA

Moves summary
* Hired coach Scott
* Re-signed UFA's Henry, Hill, Johnson and RFA Kelly to short contracts
* Re-signed UFA Young to a four-year contract
* Won the amnesty lottery for Boozer
* Signed UFA Davis to vet minimum contract
* Traded rights to Lishchuk to Houston for Lin and Houston's 2015 #1 pick
* Drafted Randle (7th)
* Bought the 46th pick in the draft and used it to draft Clarkson
* Lost Bazemore, Farmar, Gasol, Kaman and Meeks to free agency
* Waived Marshall

Comments
The Lakers accomplished what they wanted to this off-season. The Lakers made a run at a couple of big name free agents (Melo, LBJ), but I don't think they had a chance of signing them as big name free agents don't go to rebuilding teams (LBJ being the big exception, but he was going home)

Note: The grade is based upon doing three significant positive moves (getting Boozer, getting Lin and Houston's #1 pick, getting the 46th pick and getting what looks like a first round quality player with it) while keeping their young talent that they wanted to keep while maintaining salary cap flexibility. Davis could also be a significant move, but too soon to judge. I generally don't like making evaluations of draft picks before they actually play, but I think Clarkson has demonstrated that he should have been drafted in the first round.

Memphis: C
Veteran Competitor - lost in first round
What should have been their goals
#1 Try to find that magic veteran that makes the team a contender like Chandler did for the '10-'11 Mavericks
OR
#2 Trade their veterans for young talent and/or let their contracts expire and then rebuild
OR
#3 Figure out how to replace all but their franchise player with quality young players

Moves summary
* Re-signed UFA's Randolph and Udrih
* Signed UFA Carter
* Drafted Adams (22nd) and Stokes (35th)
* Lost UFA Miller to Cleveland, UFA Davis to Lakers

Comments
Minor roster changes. The window is starting to close on the Grizzlies. With many of the teams above them getting worse, the Grizzlies might luck into being a contender.

Minnesota: Incomplete
Young But Bad Team - 9 games out of the playoffs
What should have been their goals
1. Pray for luck in the lottery
2. Keep their young talent but don't overpay them
3. Trade some of their young talent for an All-Star that can turn the team around
4. Hire an excellent coach who can install a winning attitude

Moves summary
* Signed UFA Williams
* In a three team trade, acquired Wiggins, Bennett and Young for Love, Shved and Mbah a Moute
* Drafted LaVine (13th) and Robinson (40th)
* Waived Price
* Let Cunningham go

Comments
Love forced the T-Wolves to trade him. He was by far the best player on the team. Even with Love, the T-Wolves ceiling seemed to be well short of the playoffs. The T-Wolves managed to get the #1 picks in this year and last year's drafts. Wiggins has a ton of potential - will he let the T-Wolves forget Love in a season or two? Given the radical change in roster, the T-Wolves surprisingly made no moves after the Love trade.

New Orleans: B
Not sure - 15 games out of the playoffs, hit hard by injuries
What should have been their goals
Not sure

Moves summary
* Signed UFA's Fredette and Salmons
* Acquired Asik and Casspi for Ariza, Gee, Hopson, Ely, and their 2015 first round pick (protected). They waived Casspi after the trade
* Drafted Smith (47th)
* Lost UFA Aminu to the Dallas, UFA Morrow to Oklahoma City, UFA Roberts to Charlotte, UFA Smith to New York, UFA Stiemsma to Toronto
* Let Southerland go

Comments
Davis is a stud, but I am not sure of the talent of the rest of the roster. Asik should be a big upgrade for their center position.

Oklahoma City: F
Contender - lost in Finals to Spurs
What should have been their goals
1. Keep their existing core
2. Add a starter or key reserve through FA or trade that can put them over the top
3. Trade picks as necessary for #2, but make your 1st round picks count when you do draft

Moves summary
* Signed UFA's Morrow and Telfair
* Drafted McGary (21st), Huestis (29th), Christon (55th) Jefferson (60th)
* Traded Thabeet for some old sneakers and a TPE
* S&T'd Sefolosha for some old sneakers and a TPE
* Lost UFA Butler when he signed with Detroit
* Fisher retired

Comments
Lost two of their top 7 players and got almost nothing to replace them

Phoenix: D, possibly an F
Young Competitor - one game out of the playoffs
What should have been their goals
1. Acquire through trade or FA an All-Star that makes the team a contender
2. Keep the salaries sane so that tradeable players aren't overpaid and/or the team can get under the cap to sign quality FA's
3. Keep the young players who are going to become something and get rid of young players who aren't
4. Don't sign veteran FA's to big contracts unless they are a #1 type player
5. Drafting provides some talent, but player development is the main source of improvement

Moves summary
* Re-signed Bledsoe, Tucker
* Signed UFA Tolliver
* Acquired Thomas in a S&T for some old sneakers
* Drafted Warren (14th), Ennis (18th), Bogdanovic (27th), Brown (50th)
* Lost UFA Frye to Orlando after he opted out of his contract
* Waived Smith and Christmas
* Let Okafor go

Comments
* I don't understand the Thomas signing. $27M over four years for a PG when they eventually re-signed Bledsoe? That is a lot of money for someone who is going to get backup minutes. And the signing means Ennis will get zero PT
* Given that Bledsoe is injury-prone, $70M over 5 years is IMHO too much. Who were they negotiating against?
* I think losing Frye is going to hurt as his apparent replacement Tolliver is a journeyman who has played for six teams in six seasons
* I wonder if there will be any bitterness because of the Bledsoe situation
* They have the money for these big contracts this offseason and next, but they may be regretting Thomas and Bledoe's contracts in the 2016 offseason

Portland: B
Young Competitor - lost in the second round
What should have been their goals
1. Acquire through trade or FA an All-Star that makes the team a contender
2. Keep the salaries sane so that tradeable players aren't overpaid and/or the team can get under the cap to sign quality FA's
3. Keep the young players who are going to become something and get rid of young players who aren't
4. Don't sign veteran FA's to big contracts unless they are a #1 type player
5. Drafting provides some talent, but player development is the main source of improvement

Moves summary
* Signed UFA's Blake and Kaman
* Lost UFA Williams to Minnesota
* Let Watson go

Comments
Signed some vets to strengthen their bench

Sacramento: C
Young But Bad Team
What should have been their goals
1. Pray for luck in the lottery
2. Keep their young talent but don't overpay them
3. Trade some of their young talent for an All-Star that can turn the team around
4. Hire an excellent coach who can install a winning attitude

Moves summary
* Signed UFA's Collison and Sessions
* Drafted Stauskas (8th)
* S&T'd RFA Thomas for some old sneakers and a TPE
* Traded Terry, their 2015 second round pick (protected) and New York's 2016 second round pick for two players that they released/waived
* Traded Acy and Outlaw to New York for Ellington and Tyler. Ellington and Tyler were then waived
* Lost UFA Gray to Detroit

Comments
I can see that the Kings thought the Suns were overpaying Thomas and getting Collison and Sessions to take his place make sense. But otherwise, their move make no sense to me. They traded away second round picks instead of gathering them. They got older. They seem quite content with a line up that produced 28 wins.

San Antonio: B
The champions
What should have been their goals
1. Keep their existing core
2. Add a starter or key reserve through FA or trade that can put them over the top
3. Trade picks as necessary for #2, but make your 1st round picks count when you do draft

Moves summary
* Re-signed UFA's Bonner, Diaw, Mills
* Signed Parker to a multi-year extension
* Drafted Anderson (30th), McRae (58th) and Jefferson (60th)

Comments
They kept the championship together and little else

Utah: C
Young But Bad Team
What should have been their goals
1. Pray for luck in the lottery
2. Keep their young talent but don't overpay them
3. Trade some of their young talent for an All-Star that can turn the team around
4. Hire an excellent coach who can install a winning attitude

Moves summary
* Matched Charlotte's offer sheet to RFA Hayward
* Signed UFA Booker
* Acquired Felix and Cleveland's 2015 second round pick from Cleveland for Lucas, Thomas and Murphy
* Acquired Novak and New York's 2017 second round pick from Toronto for Garrett
* Drafted Exum (5th) and Hood (23rd)
* Lost UFA Jefferson to Dallas, UFA Rush to Golden State, UFA Williams to Charlotte

Comments
Another team that seems content with a line up that produced few wins.
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Last edited by Dennis_D on Sat Sep 27, 2014 8:01 am; edited 1 time in total
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:18 pm    Post subject:

So lakers are the only team to get an A.
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:38 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
So lakers are the only team to get an A.

I personally can not give the Lakers an 'A' because of the loss of Pau Gasol after striking out with LeBron and Carmelo. I think they deserve a 'B' also because Mitch said they aren't rebuilding right now. I have a feeling a big trade that will benefit us greatly will occur at the trade deadline. So my 'B' can easily turn into an 'A'.
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2014 8:00 pm    Post subject:

Good write up and I agree with your grades for the most part.
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2014 8:56 pm    Post subject:

I can appreciate the work you put into this... but the Lakers as the only team with an "A" ??? Do you remember what this board was like during the FA frenzy? The aftermath and fallout was epic... and not in a good way.

Don't mean to rain on your parade, dude... but the offseason could have been a lot better.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2014 3:24 am    Post subject:

Thanks for the work. It is an excellent post. I just like the way you layout your article.

Being a Lakers fan, I thought we have a very good off-season but an "A" is better than I expected.

We got lucky with Randle, Boozer, Lin, Clarkson, Young and the whole gang. I honestly believed we are in the range of a B or B+!
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:09 am    Post subject:

I wouldn't give the Lakers an A. Not after what happened in the first week of July. It could best be described as a total vote of no confidence in management by multiple free agents, including our own Pau Gasol.

They went into free agency with no team and no coach, and thought that would convince Melo and LeBron to come here. It was a craven sellout on many levels the pathetic nature of which was only marched by its delusion. A distant observer could have been convinced that the front office brain trust was perhaps operating under the influence of various controlled substances.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2014 7:00 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
So lakers are the only team to get an A.

What teams in the WC had a better offseason than the Lakers? When I was doing this, I was surprised at how few teams improved themselves beyond drafting.

PLATNUM wrote:
I can appreciate the work you put into this... but the Lakers as the only team with an "A" ??? Do you remember what this board was like during the FA frenzy? The aftermath and fallout was epic... and not in a good way.

I didn't want the Lakers to sign Melo as I think it is too early in the rebuild to sign a big name FA.

Last I check, the Lakers won't play 4-on-5 because they didn't sign Melo. They aren't starting 10 games below .500 because the didn't sign Melo. They aren't losing any draft picks because they didn't sign Melo. If anything, I think getting briefly on top of Melo's list when they shouldn't have been in the running is a great sign for the future.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2014 7:12 am    Post subject:

I guess I have questions about the methodology and conclusions.

You rightfully note the tiers of teams (i.e. contenders to rebuilders). However, your grades don't reflect tiers. Meaning, based on your "A" grade, one is led to believe that Lakers > Spurs this season because of an A offseason. Perhaps you intended to say within the tier of "rebuilders" the Lakers had an "A" offseason? But overall, the Lakers are still tiers below OKC and Spurs.

By not differentiating between the tiers, I think that's why the conclusive grade is misleading. As many have posted, I think the vast majority of us agree and appreciate your breakdown of the Lakers' offseason. But I think it was truly a 2 part season; 1 they failed and 1 they did reasonably well. When an "A" grade is assigned (and no other teams in the WCF get one), then the conclusion and methodology in my humble opinion is confusing.

So, for example, within the "rebuilding" tier, the Lakers get a weighted "A" but overall, one cannot reasonably say that because they are an "A" that they have now surmounted the Spurs/OKC/Clips. Then you have the contender tiers where they are graded. I think an overall "where do the teams stand now for the 2014-15 season" would help show this.

Using your breakdown, would the Cavs get an "A" too?

I think your breakdowns are really good, but I would recommend that they be put in an overall context (as well as defining the criteria for success such as emphasizing how the offseason moves translates to actual wins this season, or how it comports to rebuilding).

Just a few suggested tweaks but as usual, appreciate the thoughtfulness and write up.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2014 7:13 am    Post subject:

kray28_ wrote:
I wouldn't give the Lakers an A. Not after what happened in the first week of July. It could best be described as a total vote of no confidence in management by multiple free agents, including our own Pau Gasol.

They went into free agency with no team and no coach, and thought that would convince Melo and LeBron to come here. It was a craven sellout on many levels the pathetic nature of which was only marched by its delusion. A distant observer could have been convinced that the front office brain trust was perhaps operating under the influence of various controlled substances.


Not sure I follow. Melo himself was quite impressed with the pitch. And we've had multiple insiders report on how carefully and intelligently crafted it was. So melo ended up staying in NY for the most basic of reasons. Family and money. Did Chicago screw up too? And we know about LBJ's reasons. Was pat Riley a boob as well for trying to keep him? And failing? And Pau? Really? "Punch me in the chest because I'm not even here for Phil, you tried to trade me, I quit, you made Howard the main post guy so I'm done, oh now I'm the main post guy, sorry, I don't want it" Pau?

The other question is what exactly should the Lakers have been doing? Besides drafting well, possibly stealing a second rounder and getting a guy who could turn out to be the best player in the draft at seven, pillaging another pick for taking on a useful player, and not blowing their was on non all star talent?
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2014 7:29 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
I guess I have questions about the methodology and conclusions.

You rightfully note the tiers of teams (i.e. contenders to rebuilders). However, your grades don't reflect tiers. Meaning, based on your "A" grade, one is led to believe that Lakers > Spurs this season because of an A offseason. Perhaps you intended to say within the tier of "rebuilders" the Lakers had an "A" offseason? But overall, the Lakers are still tiers below OKC and Spurs.

By not differentiating between the tiers, I think that's why the conclusive grade is misleading. As many have posted, I think the vast majority of us agree and appreciate your breakdown of the Lakers' offseason. But I think it was truly a 2 part season; 1 they failed and 1 they did reasonably well. When an "A" grade is assigned (and no other teams in the WCF get one), then the conclusion and methodology in my humble opinion is confusing.

So, for example, within the "rebuilding" tier, the Lakers get a weighted "A" but overall, one cannot reasonably say that because they are an "A" that they have now surmounted the Spurs/OKC/Clips. Then you have the contender tiers where they are graded. I think an overall "where do the teams stand now for the 2014-15 season" would help show this.

Using your breakdown, would the Cavs get an "A" too?

I think your breakdowns are really good, but I would recommend that they be put in an overall context (as well as defining the criteria for success such as emphasizing how the offseason moves translates to actual wins this season, or how it comports to rebuilding).

Just a few suggested tweaks but as usual, appreciate the thoughtfulness and write up.


I have to agree.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2014 7:31 am    Post subject:

24 wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
I guess I have questions about the methodology and conclusions.

You rightfully note the tiers of teams (i.e. contenders to rebuilders). However, your grades don't reflect tiers. Meaning, based on your "A" grade, one is led to believe that Lakers > Spurs this season because of an A offseason. Perhaps you intended to say within the tier of "rebuilders" the Lakers had an "A" offseason? But overall, the Lakers are still tiers below OKC and Spurs.

By not differentiating between the tiers, I think that's why the conclusive grade is misleading. As many have posted, I think the vast majority of us agree and appreciate your breakdown of the Lakers' offseason. But I think it was truly a 2 part season; 1 they failed and 1 they did reasonably well. When an "A" grade is assigned (and no other teams in the WCF get one), then the conclusion and methodology in my humble opinion is confusing.

So, for example, within the "rebuilding" tier, the Lakers get a weighted "A" but overall, one cannot reasonably say that because they are an "A" that they have now surmounted the Spurs/OKC/Clips. Then you have the contender tiers where they are graded. I think an overall "where do the teams stand now for the 2014-15 season" would help show this.

Using your breakdown, would the Cavs get an "A" too?

I think your breakdowns are really good, but I would recommend that they be put in an overall context (as well as defining the criteria for success such as emphasizing how the offseason moves translates to actual wins this season, or how it comports to rebuilding).

Just a few suggested tweaks but as usual, appreciate the thoughtfulness and write up.


I have to agree.


Yeah. If the "A" is in the context of the rebuilding tier, I have absolutely no problems with that assessment at all. But a standalone "A" is a lot more difficult to defend IMO.

I do agree though that we are primed for: 1) trade deadline deals and/or 2) lots of cap room next summer. Hopefully we get an "A" overall then!
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2014 7:40 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
I guess I have questions about the methodology and conclusions.

You rightfully note the tiers of teams (i.e. contenders to rebuilders). However, your grades don't reflect tiers. Meaning, based on your "A" grade, one is led to believe that Lakers > Spurs this season because of an A offseason. Perhaps you intended to say within the tier of "rebuilders" the Lakers had an "A" offseason? But overall, the Lakers are still tiers below OKC and Spurs.

I was grading teams' offseasons, not teams themselves. Houston had an awful offseason, but is still better than the Lakers. A bad team that has a string of good offseasons will become a good team and a good team that has a string of bad offseasons will become a bad team, but one offseason usually doesn't effect a team very much. A compliment to this type of post is one that projects how well the team will do in the upcoming season. It has been my experience that when someone tries to combine that projection with the evaluation of the offseason, the combination usually buries the offseason evaluations. The "evaluations" I have seen of this Lakers' offseason discuss the FA drama and the weakness of the team, but don't actually evaluate the offseason.

yinoma2001 wrote:
Using your breakdown, would the Cavs get an "A" too?

I haven't looked at all of their transactions, but I would guess almost certainly an A.

yinoma2001 wrote:
I think your breakdowns are really good, but I would recommend that they be put in an overall context (as well as defining the criteria for success such as emphasizing how the offseason moves translates to actual wins this season, or how it comports to rebuilding).

I don't follow you here. I lay out what I think a team in each situation should do and then use that as the criteria for judging the offseason. Can you give me an example of what you want to use instead?

yinoma2001 wrote:
Just a few suggested tweaks but as usual, appreciate the thoughtfulness and write up.

Thanks.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2014 7:47 am    Post subject:

Dennis_D wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
I guess I have questions about the methodology and conclusions.

You rightfully note the tiers of teams (i.e. contenders to rebuilders). However, your grades don't reflect tiers. Meaning, based on your "A" grade, one is led to believe that Lakers > Spurs this season because of an A offseason. Perhaps you intended to say within the tier of "rebuilders" the Lakers had an "A" offseason? But overall, the Lakers are still tiers below OKC and Spurs.

I was grading teams' offseasons, not teams themselves. Houston had an awful offseason, but are still better than the Lakers. A bad team that has a string of good offseasons will become a good team and a good team that has a string of bad offseasons will become a bad team, but one offseason usually doesn't effect a team very much. A compliment to this type of post is one that projects how well the team will do in the upcoming season. It has been my experience that when someone tries to combine that projection with the evaluation of the offseason, the combination usually buries the offseason evaluations. The "evaluations" I have seen of this Lakers' offseason discuss the FA drama and the weakness of the team, but don't actually evaluate the offseason.

yinoma2001 wrote:
Using your breakdown, would the Cavs get an "A" too?

I haven't looked at all of their transactions, but I would guess almost certainly an A.

yinoma2001 wrote:
I think your breakdowns are really good, but I would recommend that they be put in an overall context (as well as defining the criteria for success such as emphasizing how the offseason moves translates to actual wins this season, or how it comports to rebuilding).

I don't follow you here. I lay out what I think a team in each situation should do and then use that as the criteria for judging the offseason. Can you give me an example of what you want to use instead?

yinoma2001 wrote:
Just a few suggested tweaks but as usual, appreciate the thoughtfulness and write up.

Thanks.


I think if you made this (all you said here) clearer (i.e. it's not evaluative or predictive of the actual upcoming season in terms of wins/losses but a pure analysis of the transactions made) then it would be easier to understand the grades.

When folks see "A" (with no other teams garnering same), then it has the perception of homerism (which I will assume is not the case). If at the beginning of the post it's made clear that it's a standalone, almost in a vacuum analysis of offseason transactions which do not necessarily translate to the upcoming season, then I think it'll be clearer.

I know this wasn't the intent of the post, but if you had something like:

Lakers

offseason grade: A (i.e., young assets, didn't blow the cap and lives fight another day at the trade deadline/2015 free agency).

overall prediction on team standing: C (i.e., young assets to build going forward, but due to a tough WCF, team will be in the X-Y range).

This gives us readers a context to evaluate one data point with another. The Cavs like get an A offseason grade wise and an A overall for the season.

When you read that the Lakers did well in the offseason, but this won't necessarily and immediately translate to wins THIS year, then it gives us a greater context for the work you put into this post.

Kind of like an "emerging markets" analysis which gives the proviso (usually) that investment returns may not be realized this year but possibly in 1-2 years.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2014 7:51 am    Post subject:

BTW, in the age of the internet, it was ridiculously hard to pull together a list of transactions for a team. NBA.com doesn't provide a list of transactions for a team. ESPN has a list of transactions for a team, but is always incomplete (the New Orleans list was blank). NBA.com has a player movement page, but it mixes training camp signings with real signings, provides no links for details on trades and was frequently wrong. Hoopshype has a page for the moves for each GM, but hasn't updated Kupchak's page since 2008. I have probably missed some transactions, particularly the future consideration when teams traded a second round pick.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2014 8:05 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
I think if you made this (all you said here) clearer (i.e. it's not evaluative or predictive of the actual upcoming season in terms of wins/losses but a pure analysis of the transactions made) then it would be easier to understand the grades.

I put some verbiage before the first set of grades then a fuller explanation after the first set. Please took a look at that and let me know if that is clear enough. PM me if you have more suggestions along those lines.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2014 8:27 am    Post subject:

Giving the Lakers an A is a homer view. Drafting Randle was a no brainer going after Boozer was a no brainer and required no giving up of players. In order to pick up players on waivers you have to have a poor record which the Lakers had, so giving management credit for Boozer is not correct.

I do give management credit for not paying Gasol big bucks, Boozer and Gasol stats are almost identical, except Boozer does not require pampering like Gasol.

Hiring Scott was also a no brainer, he was the safe bet, management will not be criticize as much if Scott fails to produce a competitive team.

Drafting Clarkson by buying the 46th pick required Lakers management to give up nothing, it remains to be seen if he pans out, if not, it's not a big deal. I know some think he should of been a 1st round pick, again, remains to be seen if he does pan out, it will be the best move by management because he is a young player.

I would give Lakers management a B
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2014 8:46 am    Post subject:

Voices wrote:
Giving the Lakers an A is a homer view. Drafting Randle was a no brainer going after Boozer was a no brainer and required no giving up of players. In order to pick up players on waivers you have to have a poor record which the Lakers had, so giving management credit for Boozer is not correct.

I do give management credit for not paying Gasol big bucks, Boozer and Gasol stats are almost identical, except Boozer does not require pampering like Gasol.

Hiring Scott was also a no brainer, he was the safe bet, management will not be criticize as much if Scott fails to produce a competitive team.

Drafting Clarkson by buying the 46th pick required Lakers management to give up nothing, it remains to be seen if he pans out, if not, it's not a big deal. I know some think he should of been a 1st round pick, again, remains to be seen if he does pan out, it will be the best move by management because he is a young player.

I would give Lakers management a B


Agreed. If Clarkson does pan out, (which we won't know for a couple of years at least) then this off-season would go up to an A for me; also, considering how we use that 1st round pick of Houston is still yet to be determined.

Overall, though, a good job by the FO, IMO...I think we'll be competitive on most nights, play hard, and while the wins and losses might not be there, we'll have at least have the flexibility moving forward to draft improve the team by the trade deadline this year if an opportunity comes up, be drafting next summer with Houston's pick, and have cap space to add an impact FA.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2014 8:54 am    Post subject:

You could argue that we basically traded Pau for Boozer. Just like we traded Ariza for Artest.

Management doesn't really deserve credit for "not paying Gasol big bucks". They tried to pay him, but he said no, and they settled for Boozer (a lucky outcome in itself.

The trade is not an upgrade, and I think it's arguable if it's even a lateral move. I think we are worse with Booz in place of Pau....but it could have been worse if we had gotten nothing in return.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:00 am    Post subject:

Stopped reading at "The Lakers accomplished what they wanted to this off-season."

I guess if offering players contracts and getting turned down is what they wanted then ok then.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:05 am    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
Stopped reading at "The Lakers accomplished what they wanted to this off-season."

I guess if offering players contracts and getting turned down is what they wanted then ok then.




Yeah, the FO had to go into plan B, C & D; lol.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:09 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
So lakers are the only team to get an A.


Seriously... I just scanned the grades and knew I didn't have to read the other 90% of the post.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:30 am    Post subject:

Let me preface my comments by commending Denis for the effort. I'm sure it took a serious block of time. That said, I saw the "A" for the Lakers then only skimmed some team analysis. Lakers don't get an "A" for faltering into plan B. Nobody should especially when plan B is several levels below plan A. I concur with Yinoma's assessment that perspective matters.

IMO While every team strives for theoretical goal, how close they come to this goal should be graded. For the Lakers, they went after Lebron/Carmelo in hopes of building a super team. They failed. F. How they recovered from that failure should earn them a C-. After all, the product is still a borderline playoff team. A not so bright kid getting a C- in calculus is an achievement.

Another issue I had was with the "incomplete" assessment. Every team should be technically be incomplete because off season is "almost" over. But for all intended purposes, Outside of trades, there's no game changers left, the off-season is over. What should be incomplete is how the future assets teams acquire affect their goals. Lakers could be in this category because their roster is structured to be a place holder for 2015-16.

Another "incomplete" team is OKC. They got TPE of 4 mil and 1.25 mil. As we know TPE aren't trivial. But for a present grade I'd give them a B-. They replaced Fisher with Telfair (an upgrade) They replaced Sefolosha with Morrow (lateral move) OKC has a decent record of drafting. #21 McGary and #29 Huestis could turn out to be rotational players down the road. Valuable Reggie jackson was a 24th overall 3 years ago.

For me, in order for OKC to get an "A" they had to move overlapping talent. For instance, move Perkins and their #29 to get 9 mil cap space. And use that 9 mil toward getting Deng who eventually signed for 10 mil. Deng would put them over SA in the West. Perkins is expendable because Adams has stepped up - or at least go scoreless just as well as Perkins.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:44 am    Post subject:

^ For me, only way OKC could get an A is if they landed an impact player that seriously puts them in to contender status.

They did have some nice moves though.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:55 am    Post subject:

we should get an A soley for drafting Julius Randle, who was the number 2 ranked player in the nation last year.

Carlos Boozer @ 3 mill >>> Pau Gasol @ 10 mill

Jordan Clarkson = possible steal of the draft

Signing Wes Johnson, Xavier Henry, Ed Davis at minimum short term contracts = excellent

Bringing back Jordan Hill & Nick Young = good

Acquiring Jeremy Lin + Rockets 1st round pick = great

Wayne Ellington & Ronnie Price signings = filling voids

Byron Scott coaching hire = wonderful




if losing out on Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James is what you're basing your pessimism on, then you need to dead that, because they were unrealistic options to begin with. we did as good as we possibly could.
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