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yinoma2001
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Joined: 19 Jun 2010
Posts: 119487
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 Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 11:54 am Post subject: |
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We need to shoot for the playoffs. If we miss, I'd rather take the chance the pick is a high lottery pick.
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thejet24
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Joined: 06 Nov 2007
Posts: 3020
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| Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 1:16 pm Post subject: |
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Easy money.
West is due for a year where the top teams become weaker due to the extra playoff minutes.
I'm thinking somewhere around 40 games is the real number.
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Steve007
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Joined: 21 Jul 2006
Posts: 13221
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| Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 4:29 pm Post subject: |
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| ringfinger wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | Again I find myself asking if I'm just being a sucker for the old obtuse routine, but they start where they think it will be, and adjust for expected action, and then adjust again on the actual action as necessary. Given the nature and disposition of Lakers fans, they are almost certainly discounting off expected wins. |
And that's it. They set the line where they think it will be. And it's not just a shot in the dark, these guys do a ton of objective analysis and research to get to this line right?
They're trying to set a line that people who are willing to put their money where their mouth is will bet on. And that's why these guys are generally fairly accurate. |
Ok, i give up. |
LOL. I think I wasn't communicating my point well. When I say "set the line" I'm talking about the initial setting of the line that is necessary in order to start accepting bets.
Oddsmakers don't just set the line initially by pulling a number out of thin air. There is thought, research and analysis conducted on a team that goes in to setting the INITIAL line.
A sportsbook has a vested interest in trying to set an INITIAL line that would never need to move. |
I think you're greatly overestimating the intelligence of the people who bet on sports. Even if people are willing to put money on something, that doesn't mean they know what they are doing. |
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Steve007
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Joined: 21 Jul 2006
Posts: 13221
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| Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 4:33 pm Post subject: |
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| K0BEE 2.0 wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | Have you seen all the people in here who think we're playoff bound? We'd essentially need to be a team that can win 50 games just to sneak in. |
The... Lakers are playoff bound as long as they remain healthy...and I will take Mitch's word over yours anyday.... you are here only to stir arguments that's all. |
You can't assume the team will stay healthy with the long grind of an 82 game season. I'm having a very hard time thinking of Laker teams that have stayed healthy, and I can easily think of seasons that were ruined by injuries. |
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ringfinger
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Joined: 08 Oct 2013
Posts: 29418
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| Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 4:39 pm Post subject: |
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| Steve007 wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | Again I find myself asking if I'm just being a sucker for the old obtuse routine, but they start where they think it will be, and adjust for expected action, and then adjust again on the actual action as necessary. Given the nature and disposition of Lakers fans, they are almost certainly discounting off expected wins. |
And that's it. They set the line where they think it will be. And it's not just a shot in the dark, these guys do a ton of objective analysis and research to get to this line right?
They're trying to set a line that people who are willing to put their money where their mouth is will bet on. And that's why these guys are generally fairly accurate. |
Ok, i give up. |
LOL. I think I wasn't communicating my point well. When I say "set the line" I'm talking about the initial setting of the line that is necessary in order to start accepting bets.
Oddsmakers don't just set the line initially by pulling a number out of thin air. There is thought, research and analysis conducted on a team that goes in to setting the INITIAL line.
A sportsbook has a vested interest in trying to set an INITIAL line that would never need to move. |
I think you're greatly overestimating the intelligence of the people who bet on sports. Even if people are willing to put money on something, that doesn't mean they know what they are doing. |
I was referring to oddsmakers that set the initial line.
I have no insights on the IQ or other intelligence measures of bet placers to know if I am over or underestimating. All I know is that as a collective group, their goal is to make money by identifying the most lucrative opportunities possible. |
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Omar Little
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Joined: 02 May 2005
Posts: 90306
Location: Formerly Known As 24
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| Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 4:57 pm Post subject: |
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Fwiw, there were a ton of tanking teams last year, which fattened the win totals of the playoff teams. The bad news is that LA probably cant count on quite as many easy wins as were out there last year, but the good news is neither can the other teams. I wouldn't be surprised if the win total to get into the eight seed drops by a few.
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“We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented.” ― Elie Wiesel |
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44TheLogo
Star Player
Joined: 21 Feb 2009
Posts: 6364
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| Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 5:00 pm Post subject: |
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| ringfinger wrote: | | Steve007 wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | Again I find myself asking if I'm just being a sucker for the old obtuse routine, but they start where they think it will be, and adjust for expected action, and then adjust again on the actual action as necessary. Given the nature and disposition of Lakers fans, they are almost certainly discounting off expected wins. |
And that's it. They set the line where they think it will be. And it's not just a shot in the dark, these guys do a ton of objective analysis and research to get to this line right?
They're trying to set a line that people who are willing to put their money where their mouth is will bet on. And that's why these guys are generally fairly accurate. |
Ok, i give up. |
LOL. I think I wasn't communicating my point well. When I say "set the line" I'm talking about the initial setting of the line that is necessary in order to start accepting bets.
Oddsmakers don't just set the line initially by pulling a number out of thin air. There is thought, research and analysis conducted on a team that goes in to setting the INITIAL line.
A sportsbook has a vested interest in trying to set an INITIAL line that would never need to move. |
I think you're greatly overestimating the intelligence of the people who bet on sports. Even if people are willing to put money on something, that doesn't mean they know what they are doing. |
I was referring to oddsmakers that set the initial line.
I have no insights on the IQ or other intelligence measures of bet placers to know if I am over or underestimating. All I know is that as a collective group, their goal is to make money by identifying the most lucrative opportunities possible. |
The point is that even that initial line is set against sports bettors perception to induce equal betting on either side of the line, not on some kind of underlying won/loss projection model that has any accuracy. |
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Steve007
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Joined: 21 Jul 2006
Posts: 13221
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| Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 5:04 pm Post subject: |
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| ringfinger wrote: | | Steve007 wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | Again I find myself asking if I'm just being a sucker for the old obtuse routine, but they start where they think it will be, and adjust for expected action, and then adjust again on the actual action as necessary. Given the nature and disposition of Lakers fans, they are almost certainly discounting off expected wins. |
And that's it. They set the line where they think it will be. And it's not just a shot in the dark, these guys do a ton of objective analysis and research to get to this line right?
They're trying to set a line that people who are willing to put their money where their mouth is will bet on. And that's why these guys are generally fairly accurate. |
Ok, i give up. |
LOL. I think I wasn't communicating my point well. When I say "set the line" I'm talking about the initial setting of the line that is necessary in order to start accepting bets.
Oddsmakers don't just set the line initially by pulling a number out of thin air. There is thought, research and analysis conducted on a team that goes in to setting the INITIAL line.
A sportsbook has a vested interest in trying to set an INITIAL line that would never need to move. |
I think you're greatly overestimating the intelligence of the people who bet on sports. Even if people are willing to put money on something, that doesn't mean they know what they are doing. |
I was referring to oddsmakers that set the initial line.
I have no insights on the IQ or other intelligence measures of bet placers to know if I am over or underestimating. All I know is that as a collective group, their goal is to make money by identifying the most lucrative opportunities possible. |
Maybe I'm nitpicking but I'm not even sure that last statement is accurate. It's accurate for pros but most gamblers are not pros. A lot of people gamble for other reasons besides trying to make money. Also, a lot of people are simply homers or haters and bet with their emotions. |
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ringfinger
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Joined: 08 Oct 2013
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| Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 5:49 pm Post subject: |
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| ^ You may be right. In either case, I'm speaking only to the original setting of the line. The oddsmakers set it evaluating some of the very same factors that are considered in projecting win totals. |
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Treble Clef
Franchise Player
Joined: 20 Nov 2012
Posts: 23899
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| Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 6:30 pm Post subject: |
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| ringfinger wrote: | | ^ You may be right. In either case, I'm speaking only to the original setting of the line. The oddsmakers set it evaluating some of the very same factors that are considered in projecting win totals. |
Yup. I don't know how this is even a debate. |
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pjiddy
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Joined: 12 Dec 2005
Posts: 29060
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| Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 8:12 pm Post subject: |
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| 24 wrote: | | NYClakerguy wrote: | | 31 is generous. we lost pau |
I hate to tell you this, but last year, the Lakers did better with Pau off the floor than on. Thats objective, statistical fact. |
I hate to tell you this, but we signed Carlos Boozer. |
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pjiddy
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Joined: 12 Dec 2005
Posts: 29060
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| Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 8:15 pm Post subject: |
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I think this team, with a healthy Kobe, is a .500 team.
So you're betting Kobe is healthy enough to play ~60 games.
Would you bet on that? |
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pjiddy
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Joined: 12 Dec 2005
Posts: 29060
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| Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 8:17 pm Post subject: |
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| Steve007 wrote: | | K0BEE 2.0 wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | Have you seen all the people in here who think we're playoff bound? We'd essentially need to be a team that can win 50 games just to sneak in. |
The... Lakers are playoff bound as long as they remain healthy...and I will take Mitch's word over yours anyday.... you are here only to stir arguments that's all. |
You can't assume the team will stay healthy with the long grind of an 82 game season. I'm having a very hard time thinking of Laker teams that have stayed healthy, and I can easily think of seasons that were ruined by injuries. |
I took a little break from the internets, and upon my return, i'm pleased to see that 2.0 has traded confounding comma usage for even more confounding ellipsis usage. He truly is Kobe 2.0. Adding... something... to his game... every year... |
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venturalakersfan
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Joined: 14 Apr 2001
Posts: 144462
Location: The Gold Coast
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| Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 8:18 pm Post subject: |
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| pjiddy wrote: | I think this team, with a healthy Kobe, is a .500 team.
So you're betting Kobe is healthy enough to play ~60 games.
Would you bet on that? |
I did.
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RIP mom. 11-21-1933 to 6-14-2023. |
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dont_be_a_wuss
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Joined: 29 Mar 2012
Posts: 21458
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| Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 8:24 pm Post subject: |
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| pjiddy wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | NYClakerguy wrote: | | 31 is generous. we lost pau |
I hate to tell you this, but last year, the Lakers did better with Pau off the floor than on. Thats objective, statistical fact. |
I hate to tell you this, but we signed Carlos Boozer. |
D'Antoni also made Pau look a lot worse than he might have otherwise. From day one MDA had it out for the Spaniard. With the Bulls he could look a lot better.
How much better was Mike Browns 3rd seed roster than Byrons roster? Its possible the team was made to look a lot worse than it really was, and that 31 wins will be easily obtained. |
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Luca Brasi
Star Player
Joined: 11 Jun 2005
Posts: 4207
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| Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 9:14 pm Post subject: |
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| No mythical narrative can be complete without the Dark Lord of the Sith entering the fray. |
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Bard207
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Joined: 08 Jan 2013
Posts: 7713
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| Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 11:49 pm Post subject: |
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| 24 wrote: | | Fwiw, there were a ton of tanking teams last year, which fattened the win totals of the playoff teams. The bad news is that LA probably cant count on quite as many easy wins as were out there last year, but the good news is neither can the other teams. I wouldn't be surprised if the win total to get into the eight seed drops by a few. |
Hoping that I will make no mistakes on collecting and presenting the information.
First the scores for all wins:
October 29, 2013
Lakers 125
Clippers 117
November 3, 2013
Lakers 105
Hawks 103
November 07, 2013
Lakers 99
Rockets 98
November 12, 2013
Lakers 116
Pelicans 95
November 17, 2013
Lakers 114
Pistons 99
November 22, 2013
Lakers 102
Warriors 95
November 27, 2013
Lakers 99
Nets 94
November 29, 2013
Lakers 106
Pistons 102
December 14, 2013
Lakers 88
Charlotte 85
December 17, 2013
Lakers 96
Grizzlies 92
December 20, 2013
Lakers 104
Timberwolves 91
January 03, 2014
Lakers 110
Jazz 99
January 17, 2014
Lakers 107
Celtics 104
January 19, 2014
Lakers 112
Raptors 106
February 05, 2014
Lakers 119
Cavaliers 108
February 07, 2014
Lakers 112
76ers 98
February 21, 2014
Lakers 101
Celtics 92
February 28, 2014
Lakers 126
Kings 122
March 03, 2014
Lakers 107
Trailblazers 106
March 09, 2014
Lakers 114
Thunder 110
March 23, 2014
Lakers 103
Magic 94
March 25, 2014
Lakers 127
Knicks 96
March 30, 2014
Lakers 115
Suns 99
April 14, 2014
Lakers 119
Jazz 104
April 16, 2014
Lakers 113
Spurs 100
__________________
The same data set after the Playoff teams are dropped:
November 12, 2013
Lakers 116
Pelicans 95
November 17, 2013
Lakers 114
Pistons 99
November 29, 2013
Lakers 106
Pistons 102
December 20, 2013
Lakers 104
Timberwolves 91
January 03, 2014
Lakers 110
Jazz 99
January 17, 2014
Lakers 107
Celtics 104
February 05, 2014
Lakers 119
Cavaliers 108
February 07, 2014
Lakers 112
76ers 98
February 21, 2014
Lakers 101
Celtics 92
February 28, 2014
Lakers 126
Kings 122
March 23, 2014
Lakers 103
Magic 94
March 25, 2014
Lakers 127
Knicks 96
March 30, 2014
Lakers 115
Suns 99
April 14, 2014
Lakers 119
Jazz 104
_________________
It appears to be about 14 victories over non Playoff teams.
It could be argued that the Knicks weren't tanking since they had already traded their pick away and the Suns were still a Playoff candidate in late March and thus not tanking at the time.
If the victories over the Suns and Knicks are dropped, then that leaves 12 wins over teams that were probably focused on the 2014 draft.
____________
Edit
Detroit and New Orleans had already traded their picks with some protection. |
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Goldenwest
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Joined: 28 Nov 2009
Posts: 2801
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| Posted: Sat Oct 04, 2014 11:29 am Post subject: |
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| Who cares, Vegas sees the lakers as a bunch of uknowns (Kobe) has beens (nash and boozer) flawed players (young, Lin, and hill) and rookies, they're naturally being conservative. The lakers really should be viewed as one of those teams that can just as easily go 48 wins as well as 31. I think this is one of the toughest seasons to predict their performance |
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Treble Clef
Franchise Player
Joined: 20 Nov 2012
Posts: 23899
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| Posted: Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:40 pm Post subject: |
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| Goldenwest wrote: | | Who cares, Vegas sees the lakers as a bunch of uknowns (Kobe) has beens (nash and boozer) flawed players (young, Lin, and hill) and rookies, they're naturally being conservative. The lakers really should be viewed as one of those teams that can just as easily go 48 wins as well as 31. I think this is one of the toughest seasons to predict their performance |
They could win 48 but it is much more difficult and much less likely than winning 31 or so. 48 would be a challenge even if everyone was healthy all season. |
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ringfinger
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Joined: 08 Oct 2013
Posts: 29418
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| Posted: Sat Oct 04, 2014 1:19 pm Post subject: |
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| Goldenwest wrote: | | Who cares, Vegas sees the lakers as a bunch of uknowns (Kobe) has beens (nash and boozer) flawed players (young, Lin, and hill) and rookies, they're naturally being conservative. The lakers really should be viewed as one of those teams that can just as easily go 48 wins as well as 31. I think this is one of the toughest seasons to predict their performance |
I don't really see 48 wins being easy for this team at all. Couldn't even get better with Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol and then Kobe playing the best ball he has played in years along with Nash being the healthiest he has been since being a Laker really. (As sad as that is to say).
Low/Mid 40s at absolute best, Mid/High 30s most likely, Low 30s at worst. (My projections include a normal volume of injury). |
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jonnybravo
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Joined: 21 Sep 2007
Posts: 30680
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| Posted: Sat Oct 04, 2014 2:52 pm Post subject: |
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| ringfinger wrote: | | Goldenwest wrote: | | Who cares, Vegas sees the lakers as a bunch of uknowns (Kobe) has beens (nash and boozer) flawed players (young, Lin, and hill) and rookies, they're naturally being conservative. The lakers really should be viewed as one of those teams that can just as easily go 48 wins as well as 31. I think this is one of the toughest seasons to predict their performance |
I don't really see 48 wins being easy for this team at all. Couldn't even get better with Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol and then Kobe playing the best ball he has played in years along with Nash being the healthiest he has been since being a Laker really. (As sad as that is to say).
Low/Mid 40s at absolute best, Mid/High 30s most likely, Low 30s at worst. (My projections include a normal volume of injury). |
Is Vegas the only place to put down money? Those are the numbers I'm seeing too. I can't conceive this team winning below 31 unless we're talking wholesale injuries to the extent that we saw LAST season. Even that team was able to eke out 27 wins and it was quite possibly the worse collection of talent I've seen in decades in the PnG. |
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Goldenwest
Star Player
Joined: 28 Nov 2009
Posts: 2801
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| Posted: Sat Oct 04, 2014 5:05 pm Post subject: |
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^i see 31 as the lower bound from Vegas, 48 I see as an upper bound. Makes sense that a median between the two is more likely than either. However, I wouldn't scoff at 48 wins; Kobe can very well put up 22-24 ppg, we've all seen more than a few big games from Young, Lin, and Hill and Even Boozer not too long ago. There is even a very realistic chance of Nash making a moderate comeback. Add in Randle and Clarksons very real potential. It's not that far fetched to see most if not all of this coming together. It's at least as likely as having another 30ish win disaster season like last year, where nothing went right.
Last edited by Goldenwest on Sat Oct 04, 2014 5:08 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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golaker
Star Player
Joined: 04 Mar 2010
Posts: 2557
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| Posted: Sat Oct 04, 2014 5:08 pm Post subject: |
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| venturalakersfan wrote: | | pjiddy wrote: | I think this team, with a healthy Kobe, is a .500 team.
So you're betting Kobe is healthy enough to play ~60 games.
Would you bet on that? |
I did. |
I'll be taking that bet as well.
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Maybe you think it's completely innocent. Maybe you don't. But there's no denying that what the rule book says means a lot less than what the NBA wants at any given moment. -Tim Donaghy |
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13th Man
Star Player
Joined: 10 Sep 2014
Posts: 1009
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| Posted: Sat Oct 04, 2014 5:35 pm Post subject: |
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| Any of these sites take bitcoin? I'm willing to put down a couple of BTCs on the over. |
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P.K.
Retired Number
Joined: 10 Jul 2003
Posts: 29713
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| Posted: Sat Oct 04, 2014 7:07 pm Post subject: |
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| jonnybravo wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | Goldenwest wrote: | | Who cares, Vegas sees the lakers as a bunch of uknowns (Kobe) has beens (nash and boozer) flawed players (young, Lin, and hill) and rookies, they're naturally being conservative. The lakers really should be viewed as one of those teams that can just as easily go 48 wins as well as 31. I think this is one of the toughest seasons to predict their performance |
I don't really see 48 wins being easy for this team at all. Couldn't even get better with Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol and then Kobe playing the best ball he has played in years along with Nash being the healthiest he has been since being a Laker really. (As sad as that is to say).
Low/Mid 40s at absolute best, Mid/High 30s most likely, Low 30s at worst. (My projections include a normal volume of injury). |
Is Vegas the only place to put down money? Those are the numbers I'm seeing too. I can't conceive this team winning below 31 unless we're talking wholesale injuries to the extent that we saw LAST season. Even that team was able to eke out 27 wins and it was quite possibly the worse collection of talent I've seen in decades in the PnG. |
As far as I know, Vegas is the only place to legally bet on NBA games. Some other states allow betting on NFL games & horses, but as far as I know NBA is limited to Vegas.
I could be wrong - I haven't looked into it since 2004 when I was doing a online casino startup.
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Wilt's unstoppable fadeaway: www.youtube.com/watch?v=8O9MgNfcGJA
NPZ's Magic Johnson mix: www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8Qbo0WqvOI |
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