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Liam_x7
Star Player
Joined: 20 Feb 2013
Posts: 1055
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 Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2014 6:28 am Post subject: |
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Our Roster is garbage so Im not suprised
Even with a 36yr old Kobe getting 40 wins will be a miracle
We are garbage
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dabask11
Star Player
Joined: 27 Dec 2012
Posts: 1989
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| Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2014 8:30 am Post subject: |
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Forget 31 wins
31 games of full health would be an accomplishment with the way things are looking right now. |
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styleripftw
Star Player
Joined: 29 Nov 2008
Posts: 1721
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| Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2014 8:34 am Post subject: |
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| We have a protected top 5 pick in next year's draft. Please tank. |
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venturalakersfan
Retired Number
Joined: 14 Apr 2001
Posts: 144474
Location: The Gold Coast
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| Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2014 8:56 am Post subject: |
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Dropping to a bottom 2 position is impossible, the team would have to lose at least 67 games. Not possible.
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RIP mom. 11-21-1933 to 6-14-2023. |
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yinoma2001
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Joined: 19 Jun 2010
Posts: 119487
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| Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2014 8:58 am Post subject: |
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| styleripftw wrote: | | We have a protected top 5 pick in next year's draft. Please tank. |
Lakers had their worst season in franchise history and we finished with the 6th worst record. We are incapable of being THAT bad. No thanks.
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From 2-10 to the Western Conference Finals |
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dont_be_a_wuss
Franchise Player
Joined: 29 Mar 2012
Posts: 21499
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| Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2014 9:18 am Post subject: |
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| styleripftw wrote: | | We have a protected top 5 pick in next year's draft. Please tank. |
Then we would have to give away our 2016 pick, and 2018 pick, getting back our 2017 pick. We are giving up those picks either way. Tanking will only delay it. |
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CrackerJax
Starting Rotation
Joined: 29 Mar 2012
Posts: 482
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| Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2014 3:34 pm Post subject: |
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Is it still possible to get Melos and LJB? Maybe Rondo too and Danny Green LJB friend:
Nashy/Rondo
Kobe
Melo/Green
LJB
Randle
That's a 50win teem |
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divncom
Star Player
Joined: 25 Jun 2005
Posts: 1365
Location: Sydney via L.A.
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| Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 12:51 pm Post subject: |
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Only on this website are people so desperate to appear knowledgeable that it takes 9 pages to establish that Vegas usually predicts who will win pretty accurately.
Arguments between overly-literal thinkers, like this one, make the baby jesus cry.
If you want to argue over how it gets to that number, go find a room.
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Chick Hearn was my favorite broadcaster ever - he's the one who taught me to think basketball, how to love basketball. - Bill Walton |
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_#1_
Star Player
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 4752
Location: Next door to 24
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| Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 2:16 pm Post subject: |
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| 24 wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | Treble Clef wrote: | Pretty much. If Vegas really felt like the Lakers were significantly better than a 31 win team, they could slide their over/under a little bit and take the entire pot from the pessimists instead of the little 5-10% cut.
It's true that Vegas is trying to accurately predict popular opinion and not the Lakers win total but in general the two things tend to line up relatively closely. |
Right. If they were way off all the time, they'd be out of business. It's not literally a prediction but it's just as good as one. |
I don't think either of you actually understand how a Vegas sports book works. They don't gamble on sports. They match bettors against each other and rake off fees. They aren't slot machines, they're poker dealers. They don't care how many games LA wins, and they don't care if they get it right. They only care about setting and moving the line until they get equal bets on both sides. |
This is absolutely not correct. You have restated one of the Vegas myths. The books job is not to equalize but to generate maximum profitability. Despite popular belief, bets are rarely split 50/50 on most games, and often the maker looks to profit from lopsided action by playing the sharp. This is especially true with low action when the squares have lesser impact. You can't play 50/50 against sharps every time out. Let along if you just equalize with large line movement and get your head taken off with middling. The daily bread is the vig, but it's not the only play for a maker. |
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Omar Little
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Joined: 02 May 2005
Posts: 90307
Location: Formerly Known As 24
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| Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 3:49 pm Post subject: |
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| _#1_ wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | Treble Clef wrote: | Pretty much. If Vegas really felt like the Lakers were significantly better than a 31 win team, they could slide their over/under a little bit and take the entire pot from the pessimists instead of the little 5-10% cut.
It's true that Vegas is trying to accurately predict popular opinion and not the Lakers win total but in general the two things tend to line up relatively closely. |
Right. If they were way off all the time, they'd be out of business. It's not literally a prediction but it's just as good as one. |
I don't think either of you actually understand how a Vegas sports book works. They don't gamble on sports. They match bettors against each other and rake off fees. They aren't slot machines, they're poker dealers. They don't care how many games LA wins, and they don't care if they get it right. They only care about setting and moving the line until they get equal bets on both sides. |
This is absolutely not correct. You have restated one of the Vegas myths. The books job is not to equalize but to generate maximum profitability. Despite popular belief, bets are rarely split 50/50 on most games, and often the maker looks to profit from lopsided action by playing the sharp. This is especially true with low action when the squares have lesser impact. You can't play 50/50 against sharps every time out. Let along if you just equalize with large line movement and get your head taken off with middling. The daily bread is the vig, but it's not the only play for a maker. |
I'm curious why the guy I know still has a job.
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“We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented.” ― Elie Wiesel |
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P.K.
Retired Number
Joined: 10 Jul 2003
Posts: 29726
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| Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 6:05 pm Post subject: |
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| _#1_ wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | Treble Clef wrote: | Pretty much. If Vegas really felt like the Lakers were significantly better than a 31 win team, they could slide their over/under a little bit and take the entire pot from the pessimists instead of the little 5-10% cut.
It's true that Vegas is trying to accurately predict popular opinion and not the Lakers win total but in general the two things tend to line up relatively closely. |
Right. If they were way off all the time, they'd be out of business. It's not literally a prediction but it's just as good as one. |
I don't think either of you actually understand how a Vegas sports book works. They don't gamble on sports. They match bettors against each other and rake off fees. They aren't slot machines, they're poker dealers. They don't care how many games LA wins, and they don't care if they get it right. They only care about setting and moving the line until they get equal bets on both sides. |
This is absolutely not correct. You have restated one of the Vegas myths. The books job is not to equalize but to generate maximum profitability. Despite popular belief, bets are rarely split 50/50 on most games, and often the maker looks to profit from lopsided action by playing the sharp. This is especially true with low action when the squares have lesser impact. You can't play 50/50 against sharps every time out. Let along if you just equalize with large line movement and get your head taken off with middling. The daily bread is the vig, but it's not the only play for a maker. |
No, you are absolutely wrong.
They had the retired head of one of Vegas' biggest sports books on a Discovery Channel special a while ago, along with guys that were the head of a couple other big casino books
They all explained exactly how the casino's make book, and the exact rules they operate under. All of them (ALL of them) were very clear that the casino books absolutely would not take a position on a bet under any circumstances - the casino can lose their gaming license if they do.
the leading guy was also the guy that was the head of one of only 2 bookmakers that would take bets on the Tyson/Douglas fight, and he was very clear on the fact that they absolutely moved the odds to 42:1 to balance the money. Very, very clear. His exact quote was "we had to reset the odds to make the money on each side match, so the casino didn't have any risk. We made our money off the fees." Now, on that fight they couldn't get to an exact 50/50 split, but he was clear that on one side of the bet they'd make something like $100,000 and on the other they'd make $60,000 - having to pay a little out of the overall take on the Vig to cover one side. But he was also clear that situation was very unusual due to the incredibly lopsided odds of 42:1.
you might find an illegal bookmaker playing the %'s to try to make extra off a game, but none of the big casino based bookmakers will do it because the risk is too great and because they'll lose their gambling license if they do it.
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LBJ + AD = More rings
Never argue with a fool - listeners can't tell you apart
Wilt's unstoppable fadeaway: www.youtube.com/watch?v=8O9MgNfcGJA
NPZ's Magic Johnson mix: www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8Qbo0WqvOI |
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Treble Clef
Franchise Player
Joined: 20 Nov 2012
Posts: 23913
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| Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 7:31 pm Post subject: |
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| 24 wrote: | | _#1_ wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | Treble Clef wrote: | Pretty much. If Vegas really felt like the Lakers were significantly better than a 31 win team, they could slide their over/under a little bit and take the entire pot from the pessimists instead of the little 5-10% cut.
It's true that Vegas is trying to accurately predict popular opinion and not the Lakers win total but in general the two things tend to line up relatively closely. |
Right. If they were way off all the time, they'd be out of business. It's not literally a prediction but it's just as good as one. |
I don't think either of you actually understand how a Vegas sports book works. They don't gamble on sports. They match bettors against each other and rake off fees. They aren't slot machines, they're poker dealers. They don't care how many games LA wins, and they don't care if they get it right. They only care about setting and moving the line until they get equal bets on both sides. |
This is absolutely not correct. You have restated one of the Vegas myths. The books job is not to equalize but to generate maximum profitability. Despite popular belief, bets are rarely split 50/50 on most games, and often the maker looks to profit from lopsided action by playing the sharp. This is especially true with low action when the squares have lesser impact. You can't play 50/50 against sharps every time out. Let along if you just equalize with large line movement and get your head taken off with middling. The daily bread is the vig, but it's not the only play for a maker. |
I'm curious why the guy I know still has a job. |
As in all forms of business, there are multiple ways of getting it done. Throughout this whole discussion, I don't think people here are really disagreeing with each other, they just think they are.
As much as casinos may strive for a conservative approach where the bets split and they get a guaranteed return, it can't always work that way. The Tyson fight PK has been bringing up is a good example of that. Vegas ended up on one side of it whether they liked it or not.
So while the sportsbook may want an even split, they don't know if they'll get one. Will they get a flurry of bets at the end to even up? Or will they get a flurry of bets at the end to push things further off? In those situations, it would make more sense to err on the side of higher probability when possible. They have every ability to use that to their advantage so why wouldn't they?
To bring it back to the 31 games example, if they were expecting the Lakers to be a 50 win team but were just expecting real soft betting on the Lakers, it wouldn't make any sense to start at 31. If they miscalculated the pessimism, they could expose themselves to a ton of higher probability bids that they wouldn't be able to match later. |
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MickMgl
Star Player
Joined: 07 Jan 2013
Posts: 1987
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| Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 12:48 am Post subject: Re: Las Vegas projects the Lakers at only 31 wins this year... :( |
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I'd bet the under. |
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MickMgl
Star Player
Joined: 07 Jan 2013
Posts: 1987
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| Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 12:50 am Post subject: |
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| NYClakerguy wrote: | | 31 is generous. we lost pau |
This |
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MickMgl
Star Player
Joined: 07 Jan 2013
Posts: 1987
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| Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 12:51 am Post subject: |
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| 24 wrote: | | NYClakerguy wrote: | | 31 is generous. we lost pau |
I hate to tell you this, but last year, the Lakers did better with Pau off the floor than on. Thats objective, statistical fact. |
Of course that's possible. Even a talented player can be ineffective if they're grossly misused.
Still, Gasol played 60 games. They won 21, lost 39. That's a significantly higher win pct than the team had when he didn't play. That's objective, statistical fact.
By contrast, you should check out how Nick Young's teams (every single one, including last year) do when he plays vs when he doesn't play. Yet people love him around here. |
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Telleris
Star Player
Joined: 28 May 2013
Posts: 2371
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| Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 2:48 am Post subject: Re: Las Vegas projects the Lakers at only 31 wins this year... :( |
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| MickMgl wrote: |
I'd bet the under. |
i think under on chicago is probably the safest bet in town, second is probably under on philly 
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I believe everything the media tells me except for anything for which I have direct personal knowledge, which they always get wrong |
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K0BEE 2.0
Franchise Player
Joined: 17 May 2013
Posts: 10949
Location: I wish I knew
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| Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 6:48 am Post subject: |
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| Vegas has no pressure to lose money.... they could have easily put the Lakers winning # at 15 and they still would act like it's nothing... I wouldn't take these gambling websites to seriously.... only the fans benefit from them when they win the money besides that..... these people don't even analyze the roster or anything like that.... and don't lose sleep over losing money because of there mega profit company industry. |
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bandiger
Franchise Player
Joined: 02 Apr 2014
Posts: 12555
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| Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 7:56 am Post subject: |
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| MickMgl wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | NYClakerguy wrote: | | 31 is generous. we lost pau |
I hate to tell you this, but last year, the Lakers did better with Pau off the floor than on. Thats objective, statistical fact. |
Of course that's possible. Even a talented player can be ineffective if they're grossly misused.
Still, Gasol played 60 games. They won 21, lost 39. That's a significantly higher win pct than the team had when he didn't play. That's objective, statistical fact.
By contrast, you should check out how Nick Young's teams (every single one, including last year) do when he plays vs when he doesn't play. Yet people love him around here. |
I love Byron Scott working on him with hard practices, I get to conclude whether this guy is a two-faced JR Smith or actually committed to be a winner. The regular season will be kinda interesting on which players are worth keeping around. |
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ringfinger
Retired Number
Joined: 08 Oct 2013
Posts: 29418
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| Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:13 am Post subject: |
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| K0BEE 2.0 wrote: | | Vegas has no pressure to lose money.... they could have easily put the Lakers winning # at 15 and they still would act like it's nothing... I wouldn't take these gambling websites to seriously.... only the fans benefit from them when they win the money besides that..... these people don't even analyze the roster or anything like that.... and don't lose sleep over losing money because of there mega profit company industry. |
This is so silly and entirely made up. Why would you say this? |
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K0BEE 2.0
Franchise Player
Joined: 17 May 2013
Posts: 10949
Location: I wish I knew
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| Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:15 am Post subject: |
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| How is it silly? It's proven that Vegas receives billions of dollars every day through out the global companies..... like mentioned... they don't overview the roster or players or anything like that and probably don't even know half of of the players on the Lakers squad... that's just reality. |
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ringfinger
Retired Number
Joined: 08 Oct 2013
Posts: 29418
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| Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:34 am Post subject: |
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| K0BEE 2.0 wrote: | | How is it silly? It's proven that Vegas receives billions of dollars every day through out the global companies..... like mentioned... they don't overview the roster or players or anything like that and probably don't even know half of of the players on the Lakers squad... that's just reality. |
Where did you read this? Just trying to understand if you read this somewhere, or if you're making it up. |
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yinoma2001
Retired Number
Joined: 19 Jun 2010
Posts: 119487
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| Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:35 am Post subject: |
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Oceans 11, 12, and 13?
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From 2-10 to the Western Conference Finals |
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K0BEE 2.0
Franchise Player
Joined: 17 May 2013
Posts: 10949
Location: I wish I knew
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| Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:51 am Post subject: |
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| Which are you talking about? the roster overview or Vegas getting big money from other companies? |
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Krispy Kreme
Franchise Player
Joined: 30 Mar 2003
Posts: 12252
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| Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2014 3:04 pm Post subject: |
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i don't think we'll be that bad. i think we'll get a 7 or 8 seed.
and then we'll see all the 'I BELIEVE!!!' threads, and threads that we'll beat the 7 or 8 seed in the first round. then we'll get dominated and lose in 4 or 5 games in the first round.
call me a hater, but i'll be right.
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Dominating every day. |
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Omar Little
Moderator
Joined: 02 May 2005
Posts: 90307
Location: Formerly Known As 24
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| Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2014 3:06 pm Post subject: |
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| Krispy Kreme wrote: | i don't think we'll be that bad. i think we'll get a 7 or 8 seed.
and then we'll see all the 'I BELIEVE!!!' threads, and threads that we'll beat the 7 or 8 seed in the first round. then we'll get dominated and lose in 4 or 5 games in the first round.
call me a hater, but i'll be right. |
Not to rain on your parade, but if we are the 7 or 8 seed, we won't be playing the 7 or 8 seed in the first round, and thus no one will think we beat them.
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“We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented.” ― Elie Wiesel |
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