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Four Decade Bandwagon
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 Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:12 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | Four Decade Bandwagon wrote: | 31 wins by Vegas oddsmakers!
That will splash a bit of cold hard realism to any optimistic Laker predictions. Those guys are not in the business to be wrong or lose money.
Apparently I am still wearing my Laker homer glasses. Because I am seeing a better team then that. I am still sticking with a prediction of a 20 game improvement over last year and competing for the 8th playoff spot because of it.
Consider it a start of a foundation for the future with a new HC and improved player chemistry and buy-in from the players.
So much is going to depend on what Kobe is able to contribute. Obviously Vegas thinks Father Time has won. I am going with revitalized and healthy Kobe. Playing about 32mpg for 75 games at about 80% of what he was a couple years ago. With a different leadership role that befits an aging elite player getting ready to turn over the reins of the Lakers.
No Championship .... this year. But a better team then even Vegas thinks. |
Those guys are not in the business of actually betting their own money at all. The object is to get 50% of betters on each side of the line and profit on fees from the winners. So the line is related to a prediction, but it is their prediction of what casual bettors are going to do along with the hard core guys. |
Yup. A lot of folks don't understand this concept. It's about getting the suckers. |
The odds makers are not going to predict significantly off what they believe the win total will be though. Perhaps a few games one way or the other to entice the bettors.
If they are too far off they will not get that approximate 50/50 split of the bettors. Then the risk kicks in. Vegas does not like risk. I doubt they see the Lakers winning either 20 or 40 games for example.
The good thing is they are wrong at times. Consider they had the Suns at 20 wins last year. Suns ended with 48.
Lets hope the Lakers are the "surprise" team this year. IMO they can be with that uncertain health factor going in their favor. |
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:19 am Post subject: Re: Las Vegas projects the Lakers at only 31 wins this year... :( |
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| Darth Los Angeles wrote: |
If we win 25 games I will be surprised. I just hope Kobe doesn't get seriously hurt fooling around with this team. What a disgrace. |
They won more last season with guys starting who couldn't even make our summer league team. Pessimism without thought.
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:20 am Post subject: |
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| NYClakerguy wrote: | | 31 is generous. we lost pau |
in 2011
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LakersMDGurl
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Joined: 24 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:20 am Post subject: |
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Well then, they guys just have to let their play do the talking. No one is going to give them anything. They are the Lakers, the most hated team in the NBA, suck it up and show them they're wrong.
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:22 am Post subject: Re: Las Vegas projects the Lakers at only 31 wins this year... :( |
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| ringfinger wrote: | | 24 wrote: |
Thats not a prediction. It is where they set the number to induce equal bets on both sides. When the Lakers are good, the number is often high because so many fans bet the over. Conversely, when they are down, the same fans tend to get very pessimistic, and the haters pile on with their emotional bets. |
That's true but money talks. That should be a bit of an awakening for those thinking a 50-win season. |
And the money goes to the casinos, and in their hope half of the fans who bet.
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Vancouver Fan
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:23 am Post subject: |
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Taking the OVER!!!!!!
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:27 am Post subject: |
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| ringfinger wrote: |
Who's word ya taking? Mitch's or mine? |
It depends on where you stand regarding the 31.5 wins.
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:29 am Post subject: |
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| 24 wrote: | | Four Decade Bandwagon wrote: | 31 wins by Vegas oddsmakers!
That will splash a bit of cold hard realism to any optimistic Laker predictions. Those guys are not in the business to be wrong or lose money.
Apparently I am still wearing my Laker homer glasses. Because I am seeing a better team then that. I am still sticking with a prediction of a 20 game improvement over last year and competing for the 8th playoff spot because of it.
Consider it a start of a foundation for the future with a new HC and improved player chemistry and buy-in from the players.
So much is going to depend on what Kobe is able to contribute. Obviously Vegas thinks Father Time has won. I am going with revitalized and healthy Kobe. Playing about 32mpg for 75 games at about 80% of what he was a couple years ago. With a different leadership role that befits an aging elite player getting ready to turn over the reins of the Lakers.
No Championship .... this year. But a better team then even Vegas thinks. |
Those guys are not in the business of actually betting their own money at all. The object is to get 50% of betters on each side of the line and profit on fees from the winners. So the line is related to a prediction, but it is their prediction of what casual bettors are going to do along with the hard core guys. |
Exactly, they get your money no matter if you bet and win or bet and lose.
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:32 am Post subject: |
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| Four Decade Bandwagon wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | Four Decade Bandwagon wrote: | 31 wins by Vegas oddsmakers!
That will splash a bit of cold hard realism to any optimistic Laker predictions. Those guys are not in the business to be wrong or lose money.
Apparently I am still wearing my Laker homer glasses. Because I am seeing a better team then that. I am still sticking with a prediction of a 20 game improvement over last year and competing for the 8th playoff spot because of it.
Consider it a start of a foundation for the future with a new HC and improved player chemistry and buy-in from the players.
So much is going to depend on what Kobe is able to contribute. Obviously Vegas thinks Father Time has won. I am going with revitalized and healthy Kobe. Playing about 32mpg for 75 games at about 80% of what he was a couple years ago. With a different leadership role that befits an aging elite player getting ready to turn over the reins of the Lakers.
No Championship .... this year. But a better team then even Vegas thinks. |
Those guys are not in the business of actually betting their own money at all. The object is to get 50% of betters on each side of the line and profit on fees from the winners. So the line is related to a prediction, but it is their prediction of what casual bettors are going to do along with the hard core guys. |
Yup. A lot of folks don't understand this concept. It's about getting the suckers. |
The odds makers are not going to predict significantly off what they believe the win total will be though. Perhaps a few games one way or the other to entice the bettors.
If they are too far off they will not get that approximate 50/50 split of the bettors. Then the risk kicks in. Vegas does not like risk. I doubt they see the Lakers winning either 20 or 40 games for example.
The good thing is they are wrong at times. Consider they had the Suns at 20 wins last year. Suns ended with 48.
Lets hope the Lakers are the "surprise" team this year. IMO they can be with that uncertain health factor going in their favor. |
You don't get it, the number has nothing to do with how many games they think the Lakers will win, it has to do with the number that will generate the most action on both sides.
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ringfinger
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:35 am Post subject: |
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| Four Decade Bandwagon wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | Four Decade Bandwagon wrote: | 31 wins by Vegas oddsmakers!
That will splash a bit of cold hard realism to any optimistic Laker predictions. Those guys are not in the business to be wrong or lose money.
Apparently I am still wearing my Laker homer glasses. Because I am seeing a better team then that. I am still sticking with a prediction of a 20 game improvement over last year and competing for the 8th playoff spot because of it.
Consider it a start of a foundation for the future with a new HC and improved player chemistry and buy-in from the players.
So much is going to depend on what Kobe is able to contribute. Obviously Vegas thinks Father Time has won. I am going with revitalized and healthy Kobe. Playing about 32mpg for 75 games at about 80% of what he was a couple years ago. With a different leadership role that befits an aging elite player getting ready to turn over the reins of the Lakers.
No Championship .... this year. But a better team then even Vegas thinks. |
Those guys are not in the business of actually betting their own money at all. The object is to get 50% of betters on each side of the line and profit on fees from the winners. So the line is related to a prediction, but it is their prediction of what casual bettors are going to do along with the hard core guys. |
Yup. A lot of folks don't understand this concept. It's about getting the suckers. |
The odds makers are not going to predict significantly off what they believe the win total will be though. Perhaps a few games one way or the other to entice the bettors.
If they are too far off they will not get that approximate 50/50 split of the bettors. Then the risk kicks in. Vegas does not like risk. I doubt they see the Lakers winning either 20 or 40 games for example.
The good thing is they are wrong at times. Consider they had the Suns at 20 wins last year. Suns ended with 48.
Lets hope the Lakers are the "surprise" team this year. IMO they can be with that uncertain health factor going in their favor. |
That's right. What they set should, barring unforeseen circumstances, be fairly accurate.
The point that they aren't predicting win totals is correct, that's not their job, but the line that is set is generally a fairly accurate predictor and certainly more accurate in the long term than the predictions that a particular team's fanbase is typically going to have. |
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ringfinger
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:43 am Post subject: |
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| K0BEE 2.0 wrote: | Ringfinger - I would say .. The 10-11 season was more frustrating .. Pau was playing like a MVP.. early in the season. Odom was playing like an all-star and so was Bynum then everything went downhill after the all-star break.
13 season was expected cause there was already whispers about the discontent system the lakers were running then you had obvious health issues like Howard's back.
There is no point 2nd guessing about the upcoming season things change for the better.. So let's sit tight and see what happens. |
Cool.
So now, back to the question you've intentionally avoided twice. You've said emphatically that you believe this team will make the playoffs if healthy. You said nothing then about sitting tight and seeing what happens. When it comes to a championship you suddenly want to ride the fence? That's weak man, that is NOT the Laker or Kobe way. Take a stance!
So which is it?
Are you going to sit tight and see what happens or are you going to make predictions? If it's the former, then you have no basis for arguing my belief that we'll miss the playoffs since you're taking a wait and see approach.
If it's the latter, then brang it. Do you believe the Lakers will win the championship this season or not? |
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Lakersneuron
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:45 am Post subject: |
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where is our over-under thread this year? Last year I predicted under. I want to go on the record and bet over 31.
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Hector the Pup
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:50 am Post subject: |
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| Four Decade Bandwagon wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | Four Decade Bandwagon wrote: | 31 wins by Vegas oddsmakers!
That will splash a bit of cold hard realism to any optimistic Laker predictions. Those guys are not in the business to be wrong or lose money.
Apparently I am still wearing my Laker homer glasses. Because I am seeing a better team then that. I am still sticking with a prediction of a 20 game improvement over last year and competing for the 8th playoff spot because of it.
Consider it a start of a foundation for the future with a new HC and improved player chemistry and buy-in from the players.
So much is going to depend on what Kobe is able to contribute. Obviously Vegas thinks Father Time has won. I am going with revitalized and healthy Kobe. Playing about 32mpg for 75 games at about 80% of what he was a couple years ago. With a different leadership role that befits an aging elite player getting ready to turn over the reins of the Lakers.
No Championship .... this year. But a better team then even Vegas thinks. |
Those guys are not in the business of actually betting their own money at all. The object is to get 50% of betters on each side of the line and profit on fees from the winners. So the line is related to a prediction, but it is their prediction of what casual bettors are going to do along with the hard core guys. |
Yup. A lot of folks don't understand this concept. It's about getting the suckers. |
The odds makers are not going to predict significantly off what they believe the win total will be though. Perhaps a few games one way or the other to entice the bettors.
If they are too far off they will not get that approximate 50/50 split of the bettors. Then the risk kicks in. Vegas does not like risk. I doubt they see the Lakers winning either 20 or 40 games for example.
The good thing is they are wrong at times. Consider they had the Suns at 20 wins last year. Suns ended with 48.
Lets hope the Lakers are the "surprise" team this year. IMO they can be with that uncertain health factor going in their favor. |
The win total is predicted based on past performance. The folks who set the line know as much about the current team as everyone else, be they fans, reporters, coaches, players, whatever, which is to say they know nothing.
It is not a number set in stone and it will change constantly over the course of the season as actual data is accumulated. For example, if the Lakers are sitting on 20 wins halfway through the season, you will not be able to walk into a casino and place a bet on 31.5 wins. If you even ask, you will at the very least get laughed at. |
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Voices
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:52 am Post subject: |
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| 24 wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | NYClakerguy wrote: | | 31 is generous. we lost pau |
I hate to tell you this, but last year, the Lakers did better with Pau off the floor than on. Thats objective, statistical fact. |
For those who want it, the Lakers gave up 9.02 points per 48 minutes more than they scored when Pau was on the floor, vs. 3.78 per 48 fewer without him. On a per minute basis, they were 2.4 times better at point differential without him. Thats a shockingly high difference. It demonstrates the difference between raw statistics and actual value. |
You know how I feel about Gasol. Gasol has not performed up to his capabilities since the championship in 2010 IMO. You have just posted what Gasol truly meant to the Lakers last year, it is a shockingly high difference.
The Bulls play defense every game, Gasol does not, it should be interesting to see how Gasol is accepted by the Bull players, if he is seen as a slacker on defense it could be a major distraction.
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Andre2K
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:52 am Post subject: |
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31 wins sounds about right to be honest. Anything above that would be a surprise. My three wishes for this season is for a healthy Kobe, another Linsanity, and a strong ROY push from Randle. Then I'll call it a successful season.
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Four Decade Bandwagon
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 9:07 am Post subject: |
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| venturalakersfan wrote: | | Four Decade Bandwagon wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | Four Decade Bandwagon wrote: | 31 wins by Vegas oddsmakers!
That will splash a bit of cold hard realism to any optimistic Laker predictions. Those guys are not in the business to be wrong or lose money.
Apparently I am still wearing my Laker homer glasses. Because I am seeing a better team then that. I am still sticking with a prediction of a 20 game improvement over last year and competing for the 8th playoff spot because of it.
Consider it a start of a foundation for the future with a new HC and improved player chemistry and buy-in from the players.
So much is going to depend on what Kobe is able to contribute. Obviously Vegas thinks Father Time has won. I am going with revitalized and healthy Kobe. Playing about 32mpg for 75 games at about 80% of what he was a couple years ago. With a different leadership role that befits an aging elite player getting ready to turn over the reins of the Lakers.
No Championship .... this year. But a better team then even Vegas thinks. |
Those guys are not in the business of actually betting their own money at all. The object is to get 50% of betters on each side of the line and profit on fees from the winners. So the line is related to a prediction, but it is their prediction of what casual bettors are going to do along with the hard core guys. |
Yup. A lot of folks don't understand this concept. It's about getting the suckers. |
The odds makers are not going to predict significantly off what they believe the win total will be though. Perhaps a few games one way or the other to entice the bettors.
If they are too far off they will not get that approximate 50/50 split of the bettors. Then the risk kicks in. Vegas does not like risk. I doubt they see the Lakers winning either 20 or 40 games for example.
The good thing is they are wrong at times. Consider they had the Suns at 20 wins last year. Suns ended with 48.
Lets hope the Lakers are the "surprise" team this year. IMO they can be with that uncertain health factor going in their favor. |
You don't get it, the number has nothing to do with how many games they think the Lakers will win, it has to do with the number that will generate the most action on both sides. |
I do get it. Perhaps we are just quibbling over the phrasing.
Let me re-phrase. Oddsmakers have a prediction of a base number of wins/losses for the Lakers then adjust the prediction to set the betting line for over/under on wins to bring in the betting on both sides. Ideally as close to 50/50 on each side to reduce risk.
They would never generate action on both sides if their initial win prediction was unrealistically too low or high. For the simple purposes of this thread I am guessing the oddsmakers believe the win/loss total to be within a few games of the 31 games. Not 10 or more just to promote betting.
As I stated before I am going to be a fan and predict the over. By about 15-18 games. Just an opinion not betting the kid's college fund. |
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 9:11 am Post subject: |
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I already put $20 on the over at 30 wins in Laughlin.
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golaker
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 9:13 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | Four Decade Bandwagon wrote: | 31 wins by Vegas oddsmakers!
That will splash a bit of cold hard realism to any optimistic Laker predictions. Those guys are not in the business to be wrong or lose money.
Apparently I am still wearing my Laker homer glasses. Because I am seeing a better team then that. I am still sticking with a prediction of a 20 game improvement over last year and competing for the 8th playoff spot because of it.
Consider it a start of a foundation for the future with a new HC and improved player chemistry and buy-in from the players.
So much is going to depend on what Kobe is able to contribute. Obviously Vegas thinks Father Time has won. I am going with revitalized and healthy Kobe. Playing about 32mpg for 75 games at about 80% of what he was a couple years ago. With a different leadership role that befits an aging elite player getting ready to turn over the reins of the Lakers.
No Championship .... this year. But a better team then even Vegas thinks. |
Those guys are not in the business of actually betting their own money at all. The object is to get 50% of betters on each side of the line and profit on fees from the winners. So the line is related to a prediction, but it is their prediction of what casual bettors are going to do along with the hard core guys. |
Yup. A lot of folks don't understand this concept. It's about getting the suckers. |
No, it's not about getting the "suckers". It's about making the prediction so accurate that the bets coming in produce a 50/50 split. Vegas doesn't want action on the game, they just want the commission they make on the bets placed. Sportsbooks will often times even sell some of their bets to other books in order to bring the balance of bets closer to 50/50. It has nothing to do with "suckers".
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Four Decade Bandwagon
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Joined: 18 Jul 2014
Posts: 8149
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 9:14 am Post subject: |
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| venturalakersfan wrote: | | I already put $20 on the over at 30 wins in Laughlin. |
Good luck!
You can tell from my stated opinion that I think you made a smart bet. Just not my nature to bet. Too cheap! I do not even buy lottery tickets. |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 9:15 am Post subject: |
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| golaker wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | Four Decade Bandwagon wrote: | 31 wins by Vegas oddsmakers!
That will splash a bit of cold hard realism to any optimistic Laker predictions. Those guys are not in the business to be wrong or lose money.
Apparently I am still wearing my Laker homer glasses. Because I am seeing a better team then that. I am still sticking with a prediction of a 20 game improvement over last year and competing for the 8th playoff spot because of it.
Consider it a start of a foundation for the future with a new HC and improved player chemistry and buy-in from the players.
So much is going to depend on what Kobe is able to contribute. Obviously Vegas thinks Father Time has won. I am going with revitalized and healthy Kobe. Playing about 32mpg for 75 games at about 80% of what he was a couple years ago. With a different leadership role that befits an aging elite player getting ready to turn over the reins of the Lakers.
No Championship .... this year. But a better team then even Vegas thinks. |
Those guys are not in the business of actually betting their own money at all. The object is to get 50% of betters on each side of the line and profit on fees from the winners. So the line is related to a prediction, but it is their prediction of what casual bettors are going to do along with the hard core guys. |
Yup. A lot of folks don't understand this concept. It's about getting the suckers. |
No, it's not about getting the "suckers". It's about making the prediction so accurate that the bets coming in produce a 50/50 split. Vegas doesn't want action on the game, they just want the commission they make on the bets placed. Sportsbooks will often times even sell some of their bets to other books in order to bring the balance of bets closer to 50/50. It has nothing to do with "suckers". |
Clearly I don't gamble. I trust other folks to weigh in on the intricacies.
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24KaratGold
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 9:29 am Post subject: |
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Betting on the over
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24KaratGold
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 9:30 am Post subject: |
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The Mavs at 49.5 is tempting too. They won 50 games last year and added Tyson Chandler and Chandler Parsons
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ringfinger
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 9:31 am Post subject: |
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| venturalakersfan wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: |
Who's word ya taking? Mitch's or mine? |
It depends on where you stand regarding the 31.5 wins. |
Well Mitch is championship. I'm at 37.5 wins give or take a few. |
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24KaratGold
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 9:39 am Post subject: |
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How do I bet online on this? Can't seem to find anything
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golaker
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 9:56 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | golaker wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | Four Decade Bandwagon wrote: | 31 wins by Vegas oddsmakers!
That will splash a bit of cold hard realism to any optimistic Laker predictions. Those guys are not in the business to be wrong or lose money.
Apparently I am still wearing my Laker homer glasses. Because I am seeing a better team then that. I am still sticking with a prediction of a 20 game improvement over last year and competing for the 8th playoff spot because of it.
Consider it a start of a foundation for the future with a new HC and improved player chemistry and buy-in from the players.
So much is going to depend on what Kobe is able to contribute. Obviously Vegas thinks Father Time has won. I am going with revitalized and healthy Kobe. Playing about 32mpg for 75 games at about 80% of what he was a couple years ago. With a different leadership role that befits an aging elite player getting ready to turn over the reins of the Lakers.
No Championship .... this year. But a better team then even Vegas thinks. |
Those guys are not in the business of actually betting their own money at all. The object is to get 50% of betters on each side of the line and profit on fees from the winners. So the line is related to a prediction, but it is their prediction of what casual bettors are going to do along with the hard core guys. |
Yup. A lot of folks don't understand this concept. It's about getting the suckers. |
No, it's not about getting the "suckers". It's about making the prediction so accurate that the bets coming in produce a 50/50 split. Vegas doesn't want action on the game, they just want the commission they make on the bets placed. Sportsbooks will often times even sell some of their bets to other books in order to bring the balance of bets closer to 50/50. It has nothing to do with "suckers". |
Clearly I don't gamble. I trust other folks to weigh in on the intricacies. |
I gamble, and you weighed in, so I corrected you. Don't worry!!
_________________
Maybe you think it's completely innocent. Maybe you don't. But there's no denying that what the rule book says means a lot less than what the NBA wants at any given moment. -Tim Donaghy |
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