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yinoma2001
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 Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 9:57 am Post subject: |
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| golaker wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | golaker wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | Four Decade Bandwagon wrote: | 31 wins by Vegas oddsmakers!
That will splash a bit of cold hard realism to any optimistic Laker predictions. Those guys are not in the business to be wrong or lose money.
Apparently I am still wearing my Laker homer glasses. Because I am seeing a better team then that. I am still sticking with a prediction of a 20 game improvement over last year and competing for the 8th playoff spot because of it.
Consider it a start of a foundation for the future with a new HC and improved player chemistry and buy-in from the players.
So much is going to depend on what Kobe is able to contribute. Obviously Vegas thinks Father Time has won. I am going with revitalized and healthy Kobe. Playing about 32mpg for 75 games at about 80% of what he was a couple years ago. With a different leadership role that befits an aging elite player getting ready to turn over the reins of the Lakers.
No Championship .... this year. But a better team then even Vegas thinks. |
Those guys are not in the business of actually betting their own money at all. The object is to get 50% of betters on each side of the line and profit on fees from the winners. So the line is related to a prediction, but it is their prediction of what casual bettors are going to do along with the hard core guys. |
Yup. A lot of folks don't understand this concept. It's about getting the suckers. |
No, it's not about getting the "suckers". It's about making the prediction so accurate that the bets coming in produce a 50/50 split. Vegas doesn't want action on the game, they just want the commission they make on the bets placed. Sportsbooks will often times even sell some of their bets to other books in order to bring the balance of bets closer to 50/50. It has nothing to do with "suckers". |
Clearly I don't gamble. I trust other folks to weigh in on the intricacies. |
I gamble, and you weighed in, so I corrected you. Don't worry!! |
So yeah, I defer to you!
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Lakers 4 eva
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Joined: 12 Jan 2008
Posts: 3820
Location: Anaheim, CA
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 10:34 am Post subject: |
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| 24KaratGold wrote: | | The Mavs at 49.5 is tempting too. They won 50 games last year and added Tyson Chandler and Chandler Parsons |
Need to bet on the over on the Lakers along with the Mavs. People sleeping on Dallas. That is a good team. |
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magicdays
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Joined: 18 Dec 2011
Posts: 1907
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 10:52 am Post subject: |
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| 24 wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | NYClakerguy wrote: | | 31 is generous. we lost pau |
I hate to tell you this, but last year, the Lakers did better with Pau off the floor than on. Thats objective, statistical fact. |
For those who want it, the Lakers gave up 9.02 points per 48 minutes more than they scored when Pau was on the floor, vs. 3.78 per 48 fewer without him. On a per minute basis, they were 2.4 times better at point differential without him. Thats a shockingly high difference. It demonstrates the difference between raw statistics and actual value. |
Yeah, I can't wait to see our numbers replacing Pau with Boozer. If you think Pau was bad on defense, wait tip you see Boozer. And there is no comparison on offense between Boozer and Pau.
Now, if you only care about salaries, then Boozer is a steal 
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 10:55 am Post subject: |
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Or if you care about Pau mailing it in for 2 seasons. That isn't Boozer's MO.
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RIP mom. 11-21-1933 to 6-14-2023. |
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magicdays
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 10:57 am Post subject: |
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| Jim99187 wrote: | | NYClakerguy wrote: | | 31 is generous. we lost pau |
pau was a loser & not a leader when his team lost kobe/nash constant pouting instead of rally the troops behind him...
he basically quit on his team instead of showing up to every game like a professional.
I am not surprised Spain lost in Qtr finals...thats what Pau's leaderships are |
I suppose you have selective amnesia because Kobe has also quit on his team in the past but I bet you still think Kobe is a winner, huh?
Pau is a team player, he is not a franchise player like Kobe. As a team player, Pau has done well and he will help the Bulls tremendously this year.
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magicdays
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 10:59 am Post subject: |
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| venturalakersfan wrote: | | Or if you care about Pau mailing it in for 2 seasons. That isn't Boozer's MO. |
Thats because Boozer level of play is already below that of Pau. You just can't tell the difference when Boozer "decides" to quit and when he doesn't
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venturalakersfan
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Location: The Gold Coast
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 11:01 am Post subject: |
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| magicdays wrote: | | Jim99187 wrote: | | NYClakerguy wrote: | | 31 is generous. we lost pau |
pau was a loser & not a leader when his team lost kobe/nash constant pouting instead of rally the troops behind him...
he basically quit on his team instead of showing up to every game like a professional.
I am not surprised Spain lost in Qtr finals...thats what Pau's leaderships are |
I suppose you have selective amnesia because Kobe has also quit on his team in the past but I bet you still think Kobe is a winner, huh?
Pau is a team player, he is not a franchise player like Kobe. As a team player, Pau has done well and he will help the Bulls tremendously this year. |
True, they all quit against the Celtics in the Finals. Pau is a #2, it remains to see if he will give the defensive effort expected in Chicago or not. I loved Pau as a Laker, but thought his time here lasted about a year too long.
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RIP mom. 11-21-1933 to 6-14-2023. |
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22
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Posts: 17063
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 11:29 am Post subject: |
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| 24KaratGold wrote: | | How do I bet online on this? Can't seem to find anything |
Can somebody anwser this? I wanna know too. |
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StatCoach
Sixth Man
Joined: 30 Jul 2010
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 11:39 am Post subject: |
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| I believe the Lakers will win more than 31. The total number of victories is a tough one to predict with this squad as there are a lot of unknowns. Combine that with all the media outlet's low expectations and it is not too difficult to see why the opening line is at 31.5. |
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golaker
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 11:42 am Post subject: |
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| 22 wrote: | | 24KaratGold wrote: | | How do I bet online on this? Can't seem to find anything |
Can somebody anwser this? I wanna know too. |
Don't bet online, half the time they won't pay you your winnings.
Grab a friend or two and drive/fly to vegas. You'll even have the excuse to go back if you win. Make a day trip out of it, it's worth it.
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ringfinger
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 11:53 am Post subject: |
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| venturalakersfan wrote: | | Or if you care about Pau mailing it in for 2 seasons. That isn't Boozer's MO. |
To be fair to Pau, the Lakers clearly gave up on him 2 yrs ago so I totally understand his challenges with motivation.
For all the talk about taking care of our own, we did a poor job of that with Pau. |
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kwase
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 11:58 am Post subject: |
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| The Lakers will have a better record than last season...now that's not saying much considering how bad we sucked last year, but MDA is gone and Kobe is back...that's 10-15 more wins easily! Still not good enough to get into the playoffs, but at least we won't be giving up 140pts. in games and with Kobe back we'll have something worth watching! |
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lakersken80
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 11:58 am Post subject: |
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| With that being said, Vegas isn't dumb either. In the end the house usually wins. There will be fans hoping to take that bet hoping they are the lucky ones to beat the odds. |
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kwase
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 12:05 pm Post subject: |
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| ringfinger wrote: | | venturalakersfan wrote: | | Or if you care about Pau mailing it in for 2 seasons. That isn't Boozer's MO. |
To be fair to Pau, the Lakers clearly gave up on him 2 yrs ago so I totally understand his challenges with motivation.
For all the talk about taking care of our own, we did a poor job of that with Pau. |
Amen! For somebody that helped us win 2 titles, the Lakers org, and some fans, didn't give Pau the credit he deserves. I completely understand why he left, and as often as the org publicly used him as trade bait, when they made me that offer I would have told them to shove it too. I wish him the best in Chicago TBH. Since we know with certainty that the Lakers aren't winning a championship this year, I will secretly root for guys that I feel weren't treated properly by this org and should still be here in some capacity...and that includes D. Fish & Phil. |
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venturalakersfan
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Joined: 14 Apr 2001
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Location: The Gold Coast
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 12:27 pm Post subject: |
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| kwase wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | venturalakersfan wrote: | | Or if you care about Pau mailing it in for 2 seasons. That isn't Boozer's MO. |
To be fair to Pau, the Lakers clearly gave up on him 2 yrs ago so I totally understand his challenges with motivation.
For all the talk about taking care of our own, we did a poor job of that with Pau. |
Amen! For somebody that helped us win 2 titles, the Lakers org, and some fans, didn't give Pau the credit he deserves. I completely understand why he left, and as often as the org publicly used him as trade bait, when they made me that offer I would have told them to shove it too. I wish him the best in Chicago TBH. Since we know with certainty that the Lakers aren't winning a championship this year, I will secretly root for guys that I feel weren't treated properly by this org and should still be here in some capacity...and that includes D. Fish & Phil. |
You shouldn't base your opinion on something that didn't happen. The Lakers never publicly used him as trade bait. In fact, they reportedly turned down deals for him because they wanted to keep him as a Laker.
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ringfinger
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Joined: 08 Oct 2013
Posts: 29418
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 12:28 pm Post subject: |
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| venturalakersfan wrote: | | kwase wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | venturalakersfan wrote: | | Or if you care about Pau mailing it in for 2 seasons. That isn't Boozer's MO. |
To be fair to Pau, the Lakers clearly gave up on him 2 yrs ago so I totally understand his challenges with motivation.
For all the talk about taking care of our own, we did a poor job of that with Pau. |
Amen! For somebody that helped us win 2 titles, the Lakers org, and some fans, didn't give Pau the credit he deserves. I completely understand why he left, and as often as the org publicly used him as trade bait, when they made me that offer I would have told them to shove it too. I wish him the best in Chicago TBH. Since we know with certainty that the Lakers aren't winning a championship this year, I will secretly root for guys that I feel weren't treated properly by this org and should still be here in some capacity...and that includes D. Fish & Phil. |
You shouldn't base your opinion on something that didn't happen. The Lakers never publicly used him as trade bait. In fact, they reportedly turned down deals for him because they wanted to keep him as a Laker. |
Oh it was the Lakers that turned down the CP3 deal? I KNEW there was more to this story! |
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 12:29 pm Post subject: |
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I fail to see how you spouting untruthful things advance the conversation.
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RIP mom. 11-21-1933 to 6-14-2023. |
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ringfinger
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 12:51 pm Post subject: |
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| venturalakersfan wrote: | | I fail to see how you spouting untruthful things advance the conversation. |
Then why do you keep saying the Lakers were the ones that turned down the Pau/Odom for CP3 deal when everyone knows that was Stern, not the Lakers? |
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P.K.
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 12:53 pm Post subject: |
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| 22 wrote: | | 24KaratGold wrote: | | How do I bet online on this? Can't seem to find anything |
Can somebody answer this? I wanna know too. |
It's a violation of federal law for any US company to accept bets that cross state lines either through the web or by phone. It's also a violation of US law for any bank or credit card company to process any transaction to any online gambling company...
because of these 2 laws, all online gambling that US residents engage in is with companies that have legal presence in a so called "safe haven" - ie. Caracao, Belize, Gibraltar, certain native indian reservations in Canada, etc.
This includes when you're doing online gambling with Harrahs, Ballys Casino's, etc - you're actually gambling with a separate entity that's based in one of the safe haven's.
Because of this, when you gamble with one of the online companies, it's pretty hit & miss whether they're real or whether they're scams and will take you money and not pay your winnings. Even worse, a lot of them will rack up huge charges on your credit cards or sell the #'s to organized criminal rings
better to either fly/drive to Vegas or NJ and place the bet in person, unless you know someone who's successfully used a online company multiple times.
After I retired from the dotcom biz in the early 2000's, I was co-founder & CTO of a startup that was going to be in the casino & online poker arena....in 2003 or 2004 George Bush pushed through that law regarding no credit card companies being allowed to process transactions for any online gaming establishment - which kind of pulled the rug out from under us
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LBJ + AD = More rings
Never argue with a fool - listeners can't tell you apart
Wilt's unstoppable fadeaway: www.youtube.com/watch?v=8O9MgNfcGJA
NPZ's Magic Johnson mix: www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8Qbo0WqvOI |
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magicdays
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Joined: 18 Dec 2011
Posts: 1907
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:01 pm Post subject: |
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| ringfinger wrote: | | venturalakersfan wrote: | | kwase wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | venturalakersfan wrote: | | Or if you care about Pau mailing it in for 2 seasons. That isn't Boozer's MO. |
To be fair to Pau, the Lakers clearly gave up on him 2 yrs ago so I totally understand his challenges with motivation.
For all the talk about taking care of our own, we did a poor job of that with Pau. |
Amen! For somebody that helped us win 2 titles, the Lakers org, and some fans, didn't give Pau the credit he deserves. I completely understand why he left, and as often as the org publicly used him as trade bait, when they made me that offer I would have told them to shove it too. I wish him the best in Chicago TBH. Since we know with certainty that the Lakers aren't winning a championship this year, I will secretly root for guys that I feel weren't treated properly by this org and should still be here in some capacity...and that includes D. Fish & Phil. |
You shouldn't base your opinion on something that didn't happen. The Lakers never publicly used him as trade bait. In fact, they reportedly turned down deals for him because they wanted to keep him as a Laker. |
Oh it was the Lakers that turned down the CP3 deal? I KNEW there was more to this story! |
OUCH
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venturalakersfan
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Joined: 14 Apr 2001
Posts: 144461
Location: The Gold Coast
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:06 pm Post subject: |
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| ringfinger wrote: | | venturalakersfan wrote: | | I fail to see how you spouting untruthful things advance the conversation. |
Then why do you keep saying the Lakers were the ones that turned down the Pau/Odom for CP3 deal when everyone knows that was Stern, not the Lakers? |
I have never said that, another thing you made up.
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King beef
Starting Rotation
Joined: 03 Jan 2014
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:07 pm Post subject: |
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| Vegas got it about right. I could see the Lakers being worse this year than last. |
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ringfinger
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Joined: 08 Oct 2013
Posts: 29418
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:08 pm Post subject: |
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| venturalakersfan wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | venturalakersfan wrote: | | I fail to see how you spouting untruthful things advance the conversation. |
Then why do you keep saying the Lakers were the ones that turned down the Pau/Odom for CP3 deal when everyone knows that was Stern, not the Lakers? |
I have never said that, another thing you made up. |
I fail to see how you spouting untruthful things advance the conversation.
You said: "In fact, they reportedly turned down deals for him because they wanted to keep him as a Laker."
NOT TRUE. They did NOT turn down the Pau/Odom for CP3 deal. |
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venturalakersfan
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Joined: 14 Apr 2001
Posts: 144461
Location: The Gold Coast
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:09 pm Post subject: |
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| P.K. wrote: | | 22 wrote: | | 24KaratGold wrote: | | How do I bet online on this? Can't seem to find anything |
Can somebody answer this? I wanna know too. |
It's a violation of federal law for any US company to accept bets that cross state lines either through the web or by phone. It's also a violation of US law for any bank or credit card company to process any transaction to any online gambling company...
because of these 2 laws, all online gambling that US residents engage in is with companies that have legal presence in a so called "safe haven" - ie. Caracao, Belize, Gibraltar, certain native indian reservations in Canada, etc.
This includes when you're doing online gambling with Harrahs, Ballys Casino's, etc - you're actually gambling with a separate entity that's based in one of the safe haven's.
Because of this, when you gamble with one of the online companies, it's pretty hit & miss whether they're real or whether they're scams and will take you money and not pay your winnings. Even worse, a lot of them will rack up huge charges on your credit cards or sell the #'s to organized criminal rings
better to either fly/drive to Vegas or NJ and place the bet in person, unless you know someone who's successfully used a online company multiple times.
After I retired from the dotcom biz in the early 2000's, I was co-founder & CTO of a startup that was going to be in the casino & online poker arena....in 2003 or 2004 George Bush pushed through that law regarding no credit card companies being allowed to process transactions for any online gaming establishment - which kind of pulled the rug out from under us |
I think the only exception is MSG and paramutual horse racing wagering.
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RIP mom. 11-21-1933 to 6-14-2023. |
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P.K.
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Joined: 10 Jul 2003
Posts: 29713
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| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:09 pm Post subject: |
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| lakersken80 wrote: | | With that being said, Vegas isn't dumb either. In the end the house usually wins. There will be fans hoping to take that bet hoping they are the lucky ones to beat the odds. |
Someone already explained this, but to cover it again
WRT sports betting, in Vegas the house neither wins nor losses - they TIE, and they want it that way. They want to put the odds or the over/under line at exactly the point where they will totally balance the bets coming in from the public. in other words, they want the total $$ bet on OVER to exactly equal the total $$ bet on UNDER - so the house neither wins nor loses.
The house makes a commission on every single bet placed - this is where they make their money. They make the same commission % on a OVER bet as they do on an UNDER bet.
so, the house gets paid regardless of who wins or losses - and they make every effort to place the line so that the money bet exactly evens out so they have no exposure on this
this is why you'll see the line on sports bets moving over time- the house set the line too high or too low for public sentiment, and too much money is coming in on one side of it and now the house has exposure that they'd have to cover...so, they move the line to balance out the betting and cover their risk
_________________
LBJ + AD = More rings
Never argue with a fool - listeners can't tell you apart
Wilt's unstoppable fadeaway: www.youtube.com/watch?v=8O9MgNfcGJA
NPZ's Magic Johnson mix: www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8Qbo0WqvOI |
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