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13th Man Star Player
Joined: 10 Sep 2014 Posts: 1009
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:55 am Post subject: |
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Lin will be a steal next year for a "good fit" team given how the Lakers have marginalized him this year.
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Lakerbull Starting Rotation
Joined: 23 Oct 2014 Posts: 146
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 9:11 am Post subject: |
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Anthony Peeler wrote: | Buck32 wrote: | kikanga wrote: | Jeremy Lin has Goran Dragic level talent. He just doesn't have his consistency.
From a basketball standpoint, it would be best for him to play elsewhere next year. Maybe he should run backup PG in MIA. They wouldn't have to change their system whether the 1st or 2nd unit is in. |
LMAO. |
I love these knuckledraggers who ignorantly scoff at Lin having Dragic-level talent without any facts.
Let's look at Dragic and Lin's Career Per 36 numbers:
Dragic
6.2FG 13.1FGA .469% FG .362% 3PT .748% FT 3.7REB 6.3AST 1.5STL 0.3BLK 3.0TOV 16.9PTS
Lin
5.4FG 12.3FGA .440% FG .350% 3PT .800% FT 3.5REB 6.4AST 1.7STL 0.5BLK 3.3TOV 15.7PTS
Their numbers are nearly identical except that Dragic is slightly better percentage-wise on FG/3pt% while Lin is a better FT shooter. And Dragic takes a marginal amount of more shots per game, which leads to a higher pt/game.
Someone is going to overpay for Dragic this summer and some other team is going to get a deal in Lin. |
lol Miami will be suckers if they max out Dragic and whoever gets Lin for <5M a year come out gangbusters. _________________ Jeremy Lin: "In terms of my career, the only thing that's really been consistent is the amount of inconsistency that I've had in my life." |
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Yumyumcha Starting Rotation
Joined: 23 Jun 2005 Posts: 751
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 9:14 am Post subject: |
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I don't know if system is that high on Lin's list - I mean most teams have the p&r in their offensive repertoire and some of them like to push the ball. Since the asg, Lin has put up some decent numbers and I don't know if BS finally changed his offensive philosophy or that Lin finally said "fck it, I'm doing it my way". I think higher on the list is more of a fit with the coach. BS is that old school high school coach trying to be Bobby Knight while Lin, with his mind set, prefers a more encouraging coach. People always tolerate different coaching styles as long as it produce results but I think being a hardass makes it easier for the FO to let you go...or for free agents to move on. |
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ice_cold Starting Rotation
Joined: 22 Jul 2014 Posts: 483
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 9:16 am Post subject: |
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ice_cold wrote: | gumblin wrote: | Lorenzomax wrote: | kikanga wrote: | Jeremy Lin has Goran Dragic level talent. He just doesn't have his consistency.
From a basketball standpoint, it would be best for him to play elsewhere next year. Maybe he should run backup PG in MIA. They wouldn't have to change their system whether the 1st or 2nd unit is in. |
After being labeled as a inconsistent player for 3 straight years, D'Antoni revealed the secrets of Lin being inconsistent under multiple inconsistent situations/roles:
"I think Jeremy can fit anywhere as a player," D'Antoni says. "He's that good. But he's not Linsanity if you put him just anywhere. If you close the floor on him" -- that is, if you don't stretch out defenses, if you don't leverage his yearning to attack the rim -- "he's going to look mediocre."
...
He visualizes Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley, who thrives without space, and Bryant, who inspired Lin's "point of emphasis" for this summer: midrange shots. Later, when I relay this plan to D'Antoni, I brace for a spit take. But the jobless coach invokes that PG-as-CEO metaphor. "There's trying to run your own company," D'Antoni says, grinning. "But you've gotta be employed too."
http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12561636/inside-jeremy-lin-life-linsanity-new-york-knicks |
This is really it. Lin is a specialist. In the right system, Lin CAN be as good as Dragic. However, he isn't by mere fact that he needs a certain system to thrive. Good players are going to be good to greater or lesser degrees in any system.
It can be argued that any player with significant talent, will do well in the "right" system. But if he's dependant on the right system, that makes him average/above average at best. |
Many players are less dependent on system, sure. But the charts in above article about Dragic's improvement since going to Heat underline how even
Elite players can be affected by system and role. See also Rondo.
The other thing about Lin is that when in right system he is really good - like 2.2 PER since All Star Break good. Not every player is going to see that upside from being in a better system for them. |
..I meant 22.2 PER ! |
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bws94 Star Player
Joined: 28 Oct 2014 Posts: 1563
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 9:25 am Post subject: |
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ice_cold wrote: | iggypop123 wrote: | Purp 32 wrote: | 6.5 mill sound about right for Lin on the open market this off season? |
thats market value but that may not get him where he wants to go. there are different considerations to take. does he want to be a starter no matter what? is is strictly about system? is it about being on a contender? etc. |
Lin wants to be a starter, but I hope he begins to let go of that. Looking around the league I am struck by how weak so many benches are. With the salary cap, often very little is left for the supporting cast. This creates an opportunity for players like Lin who can elevate the game of other players. He didn't always seize the initiate to dominate the second unit at Houston, but he should see that as his role in the future. Not just as a high scoring sixth man; but as the guy who runs the show for the second unit.
The sixth man - bench leader, who closes out games, can be crucial. I am thinking..Ginobli, Igoudala. |
That's fine, really. I don't agree Lin is a backup but I agree he can have an Iggy, Ginobili type of role and excel at that. |
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bws94 Star Player
Joined: 28 Oct 2014 Posts: 1563
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 9:27 am Post subject: |
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kikanga wrote: | Jeremy Lin has Goran Dragic level talent. He just doesn't have his consistency.
From a basketball standpoint, it would be best for him to play elsewhere next year. Maybe he should run backup PG in MIA. They wouldn't have to change their system whether the 1st or 2nd unit is in. |
We'll see. I think he'll always seem a little "sloppy" and maybe not as good a long-range shooter as Dragic, and score less, but he's a big impact player and at age 28/29 may prove to be as good as Dragic if a bit different style of player. |
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yinoma2001 Retired Number
Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Posts: 119487
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 9:29 am Post subject: |
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I'm sure savvy GMs will pay Lin the same as Dragic if he's as good as some say he is. _________________ From 2-10 to the Western Conference Finals |
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Anthony Peeler Starting Rotation
Joined: 26 Oct 2014 Posts: 328
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 9:41 am Post subject: |
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yinoma2001 wrote: | I'm sure savvy GMs will pay Lin the same as Dragic if he's as good as some say he is. |
Well, based on stats alone, Lin should get 95% of Dragic's salary.
But there's other considerations too, including the politics of paying Lin big money (there's more subjective risk -- without knowing Lin and Dragic's stats, Lin just SEEMS via the eye test or stereotype test that he's not as good) and the fact that Dragic did have that one year on Phoenix where he put it all together.
So REAL savvy GMs will know that they can get near equal value of Dragic by signing Lin, while paying only 50% the cost. |
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kikanga Retired Number
Joined: 15 Sep 2012 Posts: 29270 Location: La La Land
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 9:42 am Post subject: |
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yinoma2001 wrote: | I'm sure savvy GMs will pay Lin the same as Dragic if he's as good as some say he is. |
No way Lin gets paid that much. And to be honest, he doesn't deserve it.
All I'm saying is, physically, Lin can do everything Dragic does on the floor. Dragic isn't some stud athlete. In fact Lin prefers playing similarly to Dragic. But he lacks consistency. There are spurts of time where Lin makes you want to pull your hair out due to a lack of aggressiveness or (on the flip side) "forcing things" with over-aggressiveness.
But it's a mute point if Lin stays here. Our double post system provides a lack of spacing that even Dragic would struggle slashing lanes with. CP3 makes it look easy playing with two bigs clogging the paint. _________________ "Every hurt is a lesson, and every lesson makes you better” |
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yinoma2001 Retired Number
Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Posts: 119487
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 10:02 am Post subject: |
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Anthony Peeler wrote: | yinoma2001 wrote: | I'm sure savvy GMs will pay Lin the same as Dragic if he's as good as some say he is. |
Well, based on stats alone, Lin should get 95% of Dragic's salary.
But there's other considerations too, including the politics of paying Lin big money (there's more subjective risk -- without knowing Lin and Dragic's stats, Lin just SEEMS via the eye test or stereotype test that he's not as good) and the fact that Dragic did have that one year on Phoenix where he put it all together.
So REAL savvy GMs will know that they can get near equal value of Dragic by signing Lin, while paying only 50% the cost. |
Politics? Please. If Lin is as good as some folks claim, analytically driven teams (which are increasing) could give a damn about Lin's race.
So if Lin is as good as Dragic is, and Lin takes 50%, what does that say about Lin? _________________ From 2-10 to the Western Conference Finals |
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Anthony Peeler Starting Rotation
Joined: 26 Oct 2014 Posts: 328
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 10:22 am Post subject: |
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yinoma2001 wrote: | Anthony Peeler wrote: | yinoma2001 wrote: | I'm sure savvy GMs will pay Lin the same as Dragic if he's as good as some say he is. |
Well, based on stats alone, Lin should get 95% of Dragic's salary.
But there's other considerations too, including the politics of paying Lin big money (there's more subjective risk -- without knowing Lin and Dragic's stats, Lin just SEEMS via the eye test or stereotype test that he's not as good) and the fact that Dragic did have that one year on Phoenix where he put it all together.
So REAL savvy GMs will know that they can get near equal value of Dragic by signing Lin, while paying only 50% the cost. |
Politics? Please. If Lin is as good as some folks claim, analytically driven teams (which are increasing) could give a damn about Lin's race.
So if Lin is as good as Dragic is, and Lin takes 50%, what does that say about Lin? |
Did you just fall off the turnip truck? You know that in the real world, spin, politics, prejudice, bias, gut feelings, branding, marketing, etc., all have an impact, and it doesn't even have to be race-related. Dragic and Lin could have IDENTICAL stats but it will be easier for a GM to sell Dragic to his ownership than Lin.
Lin taking 50% of Dragic money would be recognition on Lin's part that he hasn't put it all together in one season like Dragic did two years ago. And recognition that he should value the right system and playing time over money. And recognition that there's gonna be some backlash against the last poison pill contract. |
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yinoma2001 Retired Number
Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Posts: 119487
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 10:29 am Post subject: |
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Anthony Peeler wrote: | yinoma2001 wrote: | Anthony Peeler wrote: | yinoma2001 wrote: | I'm sure savvy GMs will pay Lin the same as Dragic if he's as good as some say he is. |
Well, based on stats alone, Lin should get 95% of Dragic's salary.
But there's other considerations too, including the politics of paying Lin big money (there's more subjective risk -- without knowing Lin and Dragic's stats, Lin just SEEMS via the eye test or stereotype test that he's not as good) and the fact that Dragic did have that one year on Phoenix where he put it all together.
So REAL savvy GMs will know that they can get near equal value of Dragic by signing Lin, while paying only 50% the cost. |
Politics? Please. If Lin is as good as some folks claim, analytically driven teams (which are increasing) could give a damn about Lin's race.
So if Lin is as good as Dragic is, and Lin takes 50%, what does that say about Lin? |
Did you just fall off the turnip truck? You know that in the real world, spin, politics, prejudice, bias, gut feelings, branding, marketing, etc., all have an impact, and it doesn't even have to be race-related. Dragic and Lin could have IDENTICAL stats but it will be easier for a GM to sell Dragic to his ownership than Lin.
Lin taking 50% of Dragic money would be recognition on Lin's part that he hasn't put it all together in one season like Dragic did two years ago. And recognition that he should value the right system and playing time over money. And recognition that there's gonna be some backlash against the last poison pill contract. |
So you're saying that Dragic/Lin are essentially identical players, but some nefarious dark force is preventing Lin from getting equal contractual considerations. He should hire a lawyer and sue then under Title VII or whatever state anti-discrimination law. Good lord. _________________ From 2-10 to the Western Conference Finals |
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ice_cold Starting Rotation
Joined: 22 Jul 2014 Posts: 483
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 10:39 am Post subject: |
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yinoma2001 wrote: | Anthony Peeler wrote: | yinoma2001 wrote: | Anthony Peeler wrote: | yinoma2001 wrote: | I'm sure savvy GMs will pay Lin the same as Dragic if he's as good as some say he is. |
Well, based on stats alone, Lin should get 95% of Dragic's salary.
But there's other considerations too, including the politics of paying Lin big money (there's more subjective risk -- without knowing Lin and Dragic's stats, Lin just SEEMS via the eye test or stereotype test that he's not as good) and the fact that Dragic did have that one year on Phoenix where he put it all together.
So REAL savvy GMs will know that they can get near equal value of Dragic by signing Lin, while paying only 50% the cost. |
Politics? Please. If Lin is as good as some folks claim, analytically driven teams (which are increasing) could give a damn about Lin's race.
So if Lin is as good as Dragic is, and Lin takes 50%, what does that say about Lin? |
Did you just fall off the turnip truck? You know that in the real world, spin, politics, prejudice, bias, gut feelings, branding, marketing, etc., all have an impact, and it doesn't even have to be race-related. Dragic and Lin could have IDENTICAL stats but it will be easier for a GM to sell Dragic to his ownership than Lin.
Lin taking 50% of Dragic money would be recognition on Lin's part that he hasn't put it all together in one season like Dragic did two years ago. And recognition that he should value the right system and playing time over money. And recognition that there's gonna be some backlash against the last poison pill contract. |
So you're saying that Dragic/Lin are essentially identical players, but some nefarious dark force is preventing Lin from getting equal contractual considerations. He should hire a lawyer and sue then under Title VII or whatever state anti-discrimination law. Good lord. |
I don't want to speak for Anthony, so I won't. But I would counter your argument by saying, the world seldom works according to a strict meritocracy, especially in the NBA. These are the vagaries of contract negotiations.. without needing to get into nefarious dark forces.
What Lin gets paid or does not get paid this summer will be about as good an indication of his real value as a PG is, as his $25 mill contract was 3 years ago. Which is to say, not that much. Contract numbers are the result of such a host of external factors.
Particularly with the year Lin has had in LA, he's probably going to experience the opposite of what he experienced just after Linsanity. He will be lucky to get paid $5-6 million range is my guess. But luckily he doesn't have to worry about that. With his current salary he is living in a 1200 sq foot apartment. Good grief. This is Lin. Plus he has endorsement money. |
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yinoma2001 Retired Number
Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Posts: 119487
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 10:47 am Post subject: |
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Quote: | I don't want to speak for Anthony, so I won't. But I would counter your argument by saying, the world seldom works according to a strict meritocracy, especially in the NBA. These are the vagaries of contract negotiations.. without needing to get into nefarious dark forces. |
Sure. But the NBA is increasingly about analytics and if, as the argument is being repeatedly made here, Lin is as good as Dragic, what prevents the analytically-driven (and less emotionally or gut instinct driven) teams from signing the better player on a friendlier deal, i.e., Lin for 15m instead of Dragic at 20m?
So what folks are saying is that there is feeling that it is racially-driven, or at the least there is enough superficial evidence to show that even the statistically/analytically driven teams are going against their own numbers and resorting to basically racist reasons to not signing Lin to a FMV deal.
Or is the more rational reason that Lin isn't as good as Dragic (as the market will show this summer), but is still a very good rotation player/ _________________ From 2-10 to the Western Conference Finals |
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nikeykid Starting Rotation
Joined: 12 Jul 2014 Posts: 157 Location: Oakland, CA
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 10:53 am Post subject: |
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with pat bev out for the season (and really not performing all season), i wonder if morey regrets the trade... |
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PPP Starting Rotation
Joined: 27 Jul 2014 Posts: 124
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 10:59 am Post subject: |
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nikeykid wrote: | with pat bev out for the season (and really not performing all season), i wonder if morey regrets the trade... |
He just said rockets can win a 7 games series against any team and can win the chip this season.
So it doesnt matter they have lin/bev or not. We shall see. |
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Rugbar Starting Rotation
Joined: 14 Nov 2014 Posts: 203
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 10:59 am Post subject: |
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nikeykid wrote: | with pat bev out for the season (and really not performing all season), i wonder if morey regrets the trade... |
He regretted the trade as soon as it turned out he couldn't land Bosh. But he was gambling in the hope that he could assemble a roster that would be one of the favorites for going all the way. He gambled and lost. It happens sometimes. |
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Rugbar Starting Rotation
Joined: 14 Nov 2014 Posts: 203
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 11:00 am Post subject: |
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PPP wrote: | nikeykid wrote: | with pat bev out for the season (and really not performing all season), i wonder if morey regrets the trade... |
He just said rockets can win a 7 games series against any team and can win the chip this season.
So it doesnt matter they have lin/bev or not. We shall see. |
They can win against any team, but several will be favored to beat them. |
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Anthony Peeler Starting Rotation
Joined: 26 Oct 2014 Posts: 328
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 11:01 am Post subject: |
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yinoma2001 wrote: | Anthony Peeler wrote: | yinoma2001 wrote: | Anthony Peeler wrote: | yinoma2001 wrote: | I'm sure savvy GMs will pay Lin the same as Dragic if he's as good as some say he is. |
Well, based on stats alone, Lin should get 95% of Dragic's salary.
But there's other considerations too, including the politics of paying Lin big money (there's more subjective risk -- without knowing Lin and Dragic's stats, Lin just SEEMS via the eye test or stereotype test that he's not as good) and the fact that Dragic did have that one year on Phoenix where he put it all together.
So REAL savvy GMs will know that they can get near equal value of Dragic by signing Lin, while paying only 50% the cost. |
Politics? Please. If Lin is as good as some folks claim, analytically driven teams (which are increasing) could give a damn about Lin's race.
So if Lin is as good as Dragic is, and Lin takes 50%, what does that say about Lin? |
Did you just fall off the turnip truck? You know that in the real world, spin, politics, prejudice, bias, gut feelings, branding, marketing, etc., all have an impact, and it doesn't even have to be race-related. Dragic and Lin could have IDENTICAL stats but it will be easier for a GM to sell Dragic to his ownership than Lin.
Lin taking 50% of Dragic money would be recognition on Lin's part that he hasn't put it all together in one season like Dragic did two years ago. And recognition that he should value the right system and playing time over money. And recognition that there's gonna be some backlash against the last poison pill contract. |
So you're saying that Dragic/Lin are essentially identical players, but some nefarious dark force is preventing Lin from getting equal contractual considerations. He should hire a lawyer and sue then under Title VII or whatever state anti-discrimination law. Good lord. |
No need for hyberbole to make your point. It's not like there's perfect meritocracy on one end and "some nefarious dark force" on the other, and nothing in between.
There are many human biases that affect our decisions. Not nefarious, dark biases, but normal human biases. There's a whole field of social psychology devoted to it. You can find at a list of biases at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases. None of these are bases for discrimination lawsuits but you'll certainly hear psychologists testify in court on these kinds of biases.
If I was an NBA owner, and a GM was trying to sell me on Lin over Dragic for the same price, I could make an argument for paying Lin a lot less based on Dragic having won the NBA Most Improved Player of the Year Award (2014) and being a member of the All-NBA Third Team in 2014. This doesn't negate the fact that Lin and Dragic's career Per 36 are near identical but it's a somewhat compelling argument that Dragic has "proven" more than Lin has -- which is absolutely true.
If I was choosing between Dragic at $16 million vs. Lin at $14 million, I would pay the extra $2 million and take Dragic based on his "proven" excellence (and by proven, I mean that one great year in 2014). But if could take Lin for $8 million, and use the extra $8 million on, say, Ed Davis rather than Dragic at $16 million, and some minimum R. Kelly type player, I'd do the former. |
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yinoma2001 Retired Number
Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Posts: 119487
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 11:04 am Post subject: |
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Anthony Peeler wrote: | yinoma2001 wrote: | Anthony Peeler wrote: | yinoma2001 wrote: | Anthony Peeler wrote: | yinoma2001 wrote: | I'm sure savvy GMs will pay Lin the same as Dragic if he's as good as some say he is. |
Well, based on stats alone, Lin should get 95% of Dragic's salary.
But there's other considerations too, including the politics of paying Lin big money (there's more subjective risk -- without knowing Lin and Dragic's stats, Lin just SEEMS via the eye test or stereotype test that he's not as good) and the fact that Dragic did have that one year on Phoenix where he put it all together.
So REAL savvy GMs will know that they can get near equal value of Dragic by signing Lin, while paying only 50% the cost. |
Politics? Please. If Lin is as good as some folks claim, analytically driven teams (which are increasing) could give a damn about Lin's race.
So if Lin is as good as Dragic is, and Lin takes 50%, what does that say about Lin? |
Did you just fall off the turnip truck? You know that in the real world, spin, politics, prejudice, bias, gut feelings, branding, marketing, etc., all have an impact, and it doesn't even have to be race-related. Dragic and Lin could have IDENTICAL stats but it will be easier for a GM to sell Dragic to his ownership than Lin.
Lin taking 50% of Dragic money would be recognition on Lin's part that he hasn't put it all together in one season like Dragic did two years ago. And recognition that he should value the right system and playing time over money. And recognition that there's gonna be some backlash against the last poison pill contract. |
So you're saying that Dragic/Lin are essentially identical players, but some nefarious dark force is preventing Lin from getting equal contractual considerations. He should hire a lawyer and sue then under Title VII or whatever state anti-discrimination law. Good lord. |
No need for hyberbole to make your point. It's not like there's perfect meritocracy on one end and "some nefarious dark force" on the other, and nothing in between.
There are many human biases that affect our decisions. Not nefarious, dark biases, but normal human biases. There's a whole field of social psychology devoted to it. You can find at a list of biases at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases. None of these are bases for discrimination lawsuits but you'll certainly hear psychologists testify in court on these kinds of biases.
If I was an NBA owner, and a GM was trying to sell me on Lin over Dragic for the same price, I could make an argument for paying Lin a lot less based on Dragic having won the NBA Most Improved Player of the Year Award (2014) and being a member of the All-NBA Third Team in 2014. This doesn't negate the fact that Lin and Dragic's career Per 36 are near identical but it's a somewhat compelling argument that Dragic has "proven" more than Lin has -- which is absolutely true.
If I was choosing between Dragic at $16 million vs. Lin at $14 million, I would pay the extra $2 million and take Dragic based on his "proven" excellence (and by proven, I mean that one great year in 2014). But if could take Lin for $8 million, and use the extra $8 million on, say, Ed Davis rather than Dragic at $16 million, and some minimum R. Kelly type player, I'd do the former. |
Hyperbole? Let's check the rest of this thread...
Fair enough. But you're making a point that is separate from some here. While you're making an understandable argument premised on production, others are saying that GMs are basically discriminating (not on the basis of "proven") but racism, that they would willingly not take a player b/c of his race. I don't see that. Your argument is certainly better stated than some of the others here. _________________ From 2-10 to the Western Conference Finals |
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Anthony Peeler Starting Rotation
Joined: 26 Oct 2014 Posts: 328
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 11:04 am Post subject: |
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yinoma2001 wrote: | Quote: | I don't want to speak for Anthony, so I won't. But I would counter your argument by saying, the world seldom works according to a strict meritocracy, especially in the NBA. These are the vagaries of contract negotiations.. without needing to get into nefarious dark forces. |
Sure. But the NBA is increasingly about analytics and if, as the argument is being repeatedly made here, Lin is as good as Dragic, what prevents the analytically-driven (and less emotionally or gut instinct driven) teams from signing the better player on a friendlier deal, i.e., Lin for 15m instead of Dragic at 20m?
So what folks are saying is that there is feeling that it is racially-driven, or at the least there is enough superficial evidence to show that even the statistically/analytically driven teams are going against their own numbers and resorting to basically racist reasons to not signing Lin to a FMV deal.
Or is the more rational reason that Lin isn't as good as Dragic (as the market will show this summer), but is still a very good rotation player/ |
Yes, the league is increasingly about analytics but people like Hinkie and Morey are still the exception rather than the rule. You seem to believe in a perfect market as if psychology has no effects on the market. Any person who invests in stock would know that there is no perfect market with perfect information. |
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yinoma2001 Retired Number
Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Posts: 119487
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 11:05 am Post subject: |
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Anthony Peeler wrote: | yinoma2001 wrote: | Quote: | I don't want to speak for Anthony, so I won't. But I would counter your argument by saying, the world seldom works according to a strict meritocracy, especially in the NBA. These are the vagaries of contract negotiations.. without needing to get into nefarious dark forces. |
Sure. But the NBA is increasingly about analytics and if, as the argument is being repeatedly made here, Lin is as good as Dragic, what prevents the analytically-driven (and less emotionally or gut instinct driven) teams from signing the better player on a friendlier deal, i.e., Lin for 15m instead of Dragic at 20m?
So what folks are saying is that there is feeling that it is racially-driven, or at the least there is enough superficial evidence to show that even the statistically/analytically driven teams are going against their own numbers and resorting to basically racist reasons to not signing Lin to a FMV deal.
Or is the more rational reason that Lin isn't as good as Dragic (as the market will show this summer), but is still a very good rotation player/ |
Yes, the league is increasingly about analytics but people like Hinkie and Morey are still the exception rather than the rule. You seem to believe in a perfect market as if psychology has no effects on the market. Any person who invests in stock would know that there is no perfect market with perfect information. |
You ascribe that to a better theory (i.e. proven vs. inconsistent), which I can understand. Others are saying racism or "racism," which I don't buy. _________________ From 2-10 to the Western Conference Finals |
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Reflexx Franchise Player
Joined: 25 Jun 2005 Posts: 11163
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 11:16 am Post subject: |
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yinoma2001 wrote: | Quote: | I don't want to speak for Anthony, so I won't. But I would counter your argument by saying, the world seldom works according to a strict meritocracy, especially in the NBA. These are the vagaries of contract negotiations.. without needing to get into nefarious dark forces. |
Sure. But the NBA is increasingly about analytics and if, as the argument is being repeatedly made here, Lin is as good as Dragic, what prevents the analytically-driven (and less emotionally or gut instinct driven) teams from signing the better player on a friendlier deal, i.e., Lin for 15m instead of Dragic at 20m?
So what folks are saying is that there is feeling that it is racially-driven, or at the least there is enough superficial evidence to show that even the statistically/analytically driven teams are going against their own numbers and resorting to basically racist reasons to not signing Lin to a FMV deal.
Or is the more rational reason that Lin isn't as good as Dragic (as the market will show this summer), but is still a very good rotation player/ |
I think you're trying too hard to make this a bigger deal than it really is.
There is no salary standard associated with statistics. While analytics are playing a larger and larger role, there are other factors that will always weigh in. One big factor will always be recent performance. After all, this is a negotiation. If a team can get a great bang per buck, then awesome.
The knock on Lin will be about consistency and how he adapts to different styles.
I don't see Dragic as that much better a player than Lin. He's mainly been in better situations for showcasing himself. Three years ago, nobody was talking about him.
I can see Lin being underpaid a bit, and Dragic being overpaid significantly this offseason. |
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Anthony Peeler Starting Rotation
Joined: 26 Oct 2014 Posts: 328
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 11:17 am Post subject: |
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I think Hinkie will still be in tank mode but I can see Cuban or Morey champing at the bit to sign Lin for a discount, say around $7million per. |
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Reflexx Franchise Player
Joined: 25 Jun 2005 Posts: 11163
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 11:19 am Post subject: |
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yinoma2001 wrote: | Anthony Peeler wrote: | yinoma2001 wrote: | Anthony Peeler wrote: | yinoma2001 wrote: | Anthony Peeler wrote: | yinoma2001 wrote: | I'm sure savvy GMs will pay Lin the same as Dragic if he's as good as some say he is. |
Well, based on stats alone, Lin should get 95% of Dragic's salary.
But there's other considerations too, including the politics of paying Lin big money (there's more subjective risk -- without knowing Lin and Dragic's stats, Lin just SEEMS via the eye test or stereotype test that he's not as good) and the fact that Dragic did have that one year on Phoenix where he put it all together.
So REAL savvy GMs will know that they can get near equal value of Dragic by signing Lin, while paying only 50% the cost. |
Politics? Please. If Lin is as good as some folks claim, analytically driven teams (which are increasing) could give a damn about Lin's race.
So if Lin is as good as Dragic is, and Lin takes 50%, what does that say about Lin? |
Did you just fall off the turnip truck? You know that in the real world, spin, politics, prejudice, bias, gut feelings, branding, marketing, etc., all have an impact, and it doesn't even have to be race-related. Dragic and Lin could have IDENTICAL stats but it will be easier for a GM to sell Dragic to his ownership than Lin.
Lin taking 50% of Dragic money would be recognition on Lin's part that he hasn't put it all together in one season like Dragic did two years ago. And recognition that he should value the right system and playing time over money. And recognition that there's gonna be some backlash against the last poison pill contract. |
So you're saying that Dragic/Lin are essentially identical players, but some nefarious dark force is preventing Lin from getting equal contractual considerations. He should hire a lawyer and sue then under Title VII or whatever state anti-discrimination law. Good lord. |
No need for hyberbole to make your point. It's not like there's perfect meritocracy on one end and "some nefarious dark force" on the other, and nothing in between.
There are many human biases that affect our decisions. Not nefarious, dark biases, but normal human biases. There's a whole field of social psychology devoted to it. You can find at a list of biases at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases. None of these are bases for discrimination lawsuits but you'll certainly hear psychologists testify in court on these kinds of biases.
If I was an NBA owner, and a GM was trying to sell me on Lin over Dragic for the same price, I could make an argument for paying Lin a lot less based on Dragic having won the NBA Most Improved Player of the Year Award (2014) and being a member of the All-NBA Third Team in 2014. This doesn't negate the fact that Lin and Dragic's career Per 36 are near identical but it's a somewhat compelling argument that Dragic has "proven" more than Lin has -- which is absolutely true.
If I was choosing between Dragic at $16 million vs. Lin at $14 million, I would pay the extra $2 million and take Dragic based on his "proven" excellence (and by proven, I mean that one great year in 2014). But if could take Lin for $8 million, and use the extra $8 million on, say, Ed Davis rather than Dragic at $16 million, and some minimum R. Kelly type player, I'd do the former. |
Hyperbole? Let's check the rest of this thread...
Fair enough. But you're making a point that is separate from some here. While you're making an understandable argument premised on production, others are saying that GMs are basically discriminating (not on the basis of "proven") but racism, that they would willingly not take a player b/c of his race. I don't see that. Your argument is certainly better stated than some of the others here. |
Who is making that argument? And if someone is, clearly stating that you're just addressing that person may help alleviate some confusion. |
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