OFFICIAL JEREMY LIN THREAD (***Remember to talk about BASKETBALL and NOT other fans/posters*** See pg.1)
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Anthony Peeler
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 10:50 am    Post subject:

When I think back on early in the season, I don't think "Man, Lin is killing the team." I remember thinking, "Man, Kobe is shooting way too much AND missing most of his shots. And the Lakers interior defense is terrible. And the Lakers in general are slow."
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 10:53 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
We'll see. Lots of NBA teams out there with advanced metrics and if they are true believers in Lin he will get compensated and find a place. If not, like the majority of players in the NBA, he's going to have to embrace and learn how to fit into any team's system.


There's lot of NBA teams out there that have advanced metrics but then ultimately make decisions based on gut instinct or emotions or cognitive biases or political decisions.

There are a FEW NBA teams out there that have advanced metrics as well as the courage to act on them despite the other factors. I'm thinking of teams like the Spurs, Rockets, Hawks, Mavericks.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 10:54 am    Post subject:

Anthony Peeler wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
We'll see. Lots of NBA teams out there with advanced metrics and if they are true believers in Lin he will get compensated and find a place. If not, like the majority of players in the NBA, he's going to have to embrace and learn how to fit into any team's system.


There's lot of NBA teams out there that have advanced metrics but then ultimately make decisions based on gut instinct or emotions or cognitive biases or political decisions.

There are a FEW NBA teams out there that have advanced metrics as well as the courage to act on them despite the other factors. I'm thinking of teams like the Spurs, Rockets, Hawks, Mavericks.


So what's the cognitive biases or political decisions against Lin if the metrics point out otherwise?
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 11:00 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
Anthony Peeler wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
We'll see. Lots of NBA teams out there with advanced metrics and if they are true believers in Lin he will get compensated and find a place. If not, like the majority of players in the NBA, he's going to have to embrace and learn how to fit into any team's system.


There's lot of NBA teams out there that have advanced metrics but then ultimately make decisions based on gut instinct or emotions or cognitive biases or political decisions.

There are a FEW NBA teams out there that have advanced metrics as well as the courage to act on them despite the other factors. I'm thinking of teams like the Spurs, Rockets, Hawks, Mavericks.


So what's the cognitive biases or political decisions against Lin if the metrics point out otherwise?


I don't know what goes on in the heads of GMs and owners but it could be, for example, a political decision to sign a supposed "max" player to assuage the demands of the owner and fans. It could be a gut instinct decision to sign a player who, based on the eye test, is a lock down defender (we need a guy like Beverley or Toney Douglas, guys who waive their hands a lot and look busy).

It could be a bias toward "hard scrabble" players from the inner city rather than eggheads with Harvard degrees. It could be a "recency bias" that discounts Lin's Linsanity days as a fluke in the past and over-emphasizes his last month as a Laker, which were crappy because the team was checked out.

But the few NBA teams that really emphasize the advanced metrics should be able to overcome these biases.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 11:19 am    Post subject:

Anthony Peeler wrote:
When I think back on early in the season, I don't think "Man, Lin is killing the team." I remember thinking, "Man, Kobe is shooting way too much AND missing most of his shots. And the Lakers interior defense is terrible. And the Lakers in general are slow."


Lin was killing the team as a starter because he was a defensive liability, was erratic as a shooter, and was turning the ball over a lot. As a backup he was much better.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 11:32 am    Post subject:

Anthony Peeler wrote:
When I think back on early in the season, I don't think "Man, Lin is killing the team." I remember thinking, "Man, Kobe is shooting way too much AND missing most of his shots. And the Lakers interior defense is terrible. And the Lakers in general are slow."


Thinking back on early in the season, I remember thinking "why is lin so passive this game". Lin forced Kobe to be much more aggressive than I thought he wanted to be because of how passive he was not attacking the other team. And it showed because he would score something like 18, 19 one game then have like 7 points the next few games. It irritated the hell out of me.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 11:32 am    Post subject:

Anthony Peeler wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Anthony Peeler wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
We'll see. Lots of NBA teams out there with advanced metrics and if they are true believers in Lin he will get compensated and find a place. If not, like the majority of players in the NBA, he's going to have to embrace and learn how to fit into any team's system.


There's lot of NBA teams out there that have advanced metrics but then ultimately make decisions based on gut instinct or emotions or cognitive biases or political decisions.

There are a FEW NBA teams out there that have advanced metrics as well as the courage to act on them despite the other factors. I'm thinking of teams like the Spurs, Rockets, Hawks, Mavericks.


So what's the cognitive biases or political decisions against Lin if the metrics point out otherwise?


I don't know what goes on in the heads of GMs and owners but it could be, for example, a political decision to sign a supposed "max" player to assuage the demands of the owner and fans. It could be a gut instinct decision to sign a player who, based on the eye test, is a lock down defender (we need a guy like Beverley or Toney Douglas, guys who waive their hands a lot and look busy).

It could be a bias toward "hard scrabble" players from the inner city rather than eggheads with Harvard degrees. It could be a "recency bias" that discounts Lin's Linsanity days as a fluke in the past and over-emphasizes his last month as a Laker, which were crappy because the team was checked out.

But the few NBA teams that really emphasize the advanced metrics should be able to overcome these biases.


Sounds like a lot of pre-made potential excuses if Lin is not valued that highly by NBA FOs and not in high demand this season.

The alternative view is that Lin, while he does some good things, has no distinct advantage over other back-up PGs available. And intangible things like attitude when not starting, mental fortitude, ability to adjust to whatever style the team requires, etc. are also valued.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 11:34 am    Post subject:

Anthony Peeler wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Anthony Peeler wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
We'll see. Lots of NBA teams out there with advanced metrics and if they are true believers in Lin he will get compensated and find a place. If not, like the majority of players in the NBA, he's going to have to embrace and learn how to fit into any team's system.


There's lot of NBA teams out there that have advanced metrics but then ultimately make decisions based on gut instinct or emotions or cognitive biases or political decisions.

There are a FEW NBA teams out there that have advanced metrics as well as the courage to act on them despite the other factors. I'm thinking of teams like the Spurs, Rockets, Hawks, Mavericks.


So what's the cognitive biases or political decisions against Lin if the metrics point out otherwise?


I don't know what goes on in the heads of GMs and owners but it could be, for example, a political decision to sign a supposed "max" player to assuage the demands of the owner and fans. It could be a gut instinct decision to sign a player who, based on the eye test, is a lock down defender (we need a guy like Beverley or Toney Douglas, guys who waive their hands a lot and look busy).

It could be a bias toward "hard scrabble" players from the inner city rather than eggheads with Harvard degrees. It could be a "recency bias" that discounts Lin's Linsanity days as a fluke in the past and over-emphasizes his last month as a Laker, which were crappy because the team was checked out.

But the few NBA teams that really emphasize the advanced metrics should be able to overcome these biases.


A bit of paranoia IMO but so be it.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 11:40 am    Post subject:

Lakers2015 wrote:
Anthony Peeler wrote:
When I think back on early in the season, I don't think "Man, Lin is killing the team." I remember thinking, "Man, Kobe is shooting way too much AND missing most of his shots. And the Lakers interior defense is terrible. And the Lakers in general are slow."


Lin was killing the team as a starter because he was a defensive liability, was erratic as a shooter, and was turning the ball over a lot. As a backup he was much better.


Don't disagree with Lin's inconsistency or turnovers but his defense is actually better than what people give him credit for. There's a few articles about his better than eye test d.

http://raining3s.com/2014/07/30/jeremy-lins-defense-far-better/
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 11:50 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
Anthony Peeler wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Anthony Peeler wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
We'll see. Lots of NBA teams out there with advanced metrics and if they are true believers in Lin he will get compensated and find a place. If not, like the majority of players in the NBA, he's going to have to embrace and learn how to fit into any team's system.


There's lot of NBA teams out there that have advanced metrics but then ultimately make decisions based on gut instinct or emotions or cognitive biases or political decisions.

There are a FEW NBA teams out there that have advanced metrics as well as the courage to act on them despite the other factors. I'm thinking of teams like the Spurs, Rockets, Hawks, Mavericks.


So what's the cognitive biases or political decisions against Lin if the metrics point out otherwise?


I don't know what goes on in the heads of GMs and owners but it could be, for example, a political decision to sign a supposed "max" player to assuage the demands of the owner and fans. It could be a gut instinct decision to sign a player who, based on the eye test, is a lock down defender (we need a guy like Beverley or Toney Douglas, guys who waive their hands a lot and look busy).

It could be a bias toward "hard scrabble" players from the inner city rather than eggheads with Harvard degrees. It could be a "recency bias" that discounts Lin's Linsanity days as a fluke in the past and over-emphasizes his last month as a Laker, which were crappy because the team was checked out.

But the few NBA teams that really emphasize the advanced metrics should be able to overcome these biases.


A bit of paranoia IMO but so be it.


Not paranoia, YOU asked for examples.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 11:53 am    Post subject:

Lakers2015 wrote:
Anthony Peeler wrote:
When I think back on early in the season, I don't think "Man, Lin is killing the team." I remember thinking, "Man, Kobe is shooting way too much AND missing most of his shots. And the Lakers interior defense is terrible. And the Lakers in general are slow."


Lin was killing the team as a starter because he was a defensive liability, was erratic as a shooter, and was turning the ball over a lot. As a backup he was much better.


Lin averaged 2.6 TOs/game in 31 minutes in November -- use stats, not cloudy recollections. He had a couple clunker games in November, hardly "erratic".

This is another example of a perpetuation of the myth that Lin sucked early in the season, based on faulty perception rather than fact.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 11:54 am    Post subject:

Anthony Peeler wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Anthony Peeler wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Anthony Peeler wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
We'll see. Lots of NBA teams out there with advanced metrics and if they are true believers in Lin he will get compensated and find a place. If not, like the majority of players in the NBA, he's going to have to embrace and learn how to fit into any team's system.


There's lot of NBA teams out there that have advanced metrics but then ultimately make decisions based on gut instinct or emotions or cognitive biases or political decisions.

There are a FEW NBA teams out there that have advanced metrics as well as the courage to act on them despite the other factors. I'm thinking of teams like the Spurs, Rockets, Hawks, Mavericks.


So what's the cognitive biases or political decisions against Lin if the metrics point out otherwise?


I don't know what goes on in the heads of GMs and owners but it could be, for example, a political decision to sign a supposed "max" player to assuage the demands of the owner and fans. It could be a gut instinct decision to sign a player who, based on the eye test, is a lock down defender (we need a guy like Beverley or Toney Douglas, guys who waive their hands a lot and look busy).

It could be a bias toward "hard scrabble" players from the inner city rather than eggheads with Harvard degrees. It could be a "recency bias" that discounts Lin's Linsanity days as a fluke in the past and over-emphasizes his last month as a Laker, which were crappy because the team was checked out.

But the few NBA teams that really emphasize the advanced metrics should be able to overcome these biases.


A bit of paranoia IMO but so be it.


Not paranoia, YOU asked for examples.


Fine, the examples stated are indicia of paranoia. As if having a Harvard degree disqualified him from a team. Come on.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 11:55 am    Post subject:

Rivershow wrote:
Anthony Peeler wrote:
When I think back on early in the season, I don't think "Man, Lin is killing the team." I remember thinking, "Man, Kobe is shooting way too much AND missing most of his shots. And the Lakers interior defense is terrible. And the Lakers in general are slow."


Thinking back on early in the season, I remember thinking "why is lin so passive this game". Lin forced Kobe to be much more aggressive than I thought he wanted to be because of how passive he was not attacking the other team. And it showed because he would score something like 18, 19 one game then have like 7 points the next few games. It irritated the hell out of me.


Actually, good point. I remember that Lin seemed passive too, but also that there were many times when Lin called for the ball but Kobe took the shot anyways, even though he was double and triple teamed. Ultimately, I think Lin didn't know how to step up to Kobe. Nevertheless, Lin's November stats were still good.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 12:00 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
Anthony Peeler wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Anthony Peeler wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Anthony Peeler wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
We'll see. Lots of NBA teams out there with advanced metrics and if they are true believers in Lin he will get compensated and find a place. If not, like the majority of players in the NBA, he's going to have to embrace and learn how to fit into any team's system.


There's lot of NBA teams out there that have advanced metrics but then ultimately make decisions based on gut instinct or emotions or cognitive biases or political decisions.

There are a FEW NBA teams out there that have advanced metrics as well as the courage to act on them despite the other factors. I'm thinking of teams like the Spurs, Rockets, Hawks, Mavericks.


So what's the cognitive biases or political decisions against Lin if the metrics point out otherwise?


I don't know what goes on in the heads of GMs and owners but it could be, for example, a political decision to sign a supposed "max" player to assuage the demands of the owner and fans. It could be a gut instinct decision to sign a player who, based on the eye test, is a lock down defender (we need a guy like Beverley or Toney Douglas, guys who waive their hands a lot and look busy).

It could be a bias toward "hard scrabble" players from the inner city rather than eggheads with Harvard degrees. It could be a "recency bias" that discounts Lin's Linsanity days as a fluke in the past and over-emphasizes his last month as a Laker, which were crappy because the team was checked out.

But the few NBA teams that really emphasize the advanced metrics should be able to overcome these biases.


A bit of paranoia IMO but so be it.


Not paranoia, YOU asked for examples.


Fine, the examples stated are indicia of paranoia. As if having a Harvard degree disqualified him from a team. Come on.


We've already gone over this. There's a whole field of social psychology that covers cognitive and social biases. Here's a list from Wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases

No one is saying that having a Harvard degree disqualifies someone from a team -- that is an exaggerated straw man argument. My point is that everything else being equal, people use cognitive biases sometimes to make decisions. So if Player X and Player Y have the same stats, but Player X is from UNC and Player Y is from Harvard, it is not outside the realm of possibility that General Manager Z would pick Player X based on a gut instinct bias toward a reputable NCAA conference.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 12:02 pm    Post subject:

So you're saying every person has a cognitive bias? Of course. That's not in dispute at all. The fact that the "Harvard vs. inner city" angle, or the other ones you listed just don't pass the sniff test to me. But it apparently does for you. So that's why I think it's a ridiculous excuse. The "max argument" is really a strawman since there is no reason to believe a team is offering him the max.

If he is a baller, he will have a spot in the NBA. Guys who run afoul of the law, abuse drugs, etc. tend to have a harder time sticking opposed to clean-cut, well-spoken and educated players.

Again, if he can ball, he will get paid.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 12:40 pm    Post subject:

SweetP wrote:
Anthony Peeler wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Anthony Peeler wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
We'll see. Lots of NBA teams out there with advanced metrics and if they are true believers in Lin he will get compensated and find a place. If not, like the majority of players in the NBA, he's going to have to embrace and learn how to fit into any team's system.


There's lot of NBA teams out there that have advanced metrics but then ultimately make decisions based on gut instinct or emotions or cognitive biases or political decisions.

There are a FEW NBA teams out there that have advanced metrics as well as the courage to act on them despite the other factors. I'm thinking of teams like the Spurs, Rockets, Hawks, Mavericks.


So what's the cognitive biases or political decisions against Lin if the metrics point out otherwise?


I don't know what goes on in the heads of GMs and owners but it could be, for example, a political decision to sign a supposed "max" player to assuage the demands of the owner and fans. It could be a gut instinct decision to sign a player who, based on the eye test, is a lock down defender (we need a guy like Beverley or Toney Douglas, guys who waive their hands a lot and look busy).

It could be a bias toward "hard scrabble" players from the inner city rather than eggheads with Harvard degrees. It could be a "recency bias" that discounts Lin's Linsanity days as a fluke in the past and over-emphasizes his last month as a Laker, which were crappy because the team was checked out.

But the few NBA teams that really emphasize the advanced metrics should be able to overcome these biases.


Sounds like a lot of pre-made potential excuses if Lin is not valued that highly by NBA FOs and not in high demand this season.

The alternative view is that Lin, while he does some good things, has no distinct advantage over other back-up PGs available. And intangible things like attitude when not starting, mental fortitude, ability to adjust to whatever style the team requires, etc. are also valued.


Not excuses -- just a simple statement of fact that no human being makes judgments based on stats and facts alone. We are all fallible and susceptible to cognitive and social biases.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 12:42 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
So you're saying every person has a cognitive bias? Of course. That's not in dispute at all. The fact that the "Harvard vs. inner city" angle, or the other ones you listed just don't pass the sniff test to me. But it apparently does for you. So that's why I think it's a ridiculous excuse. The "max argument" is really a strawman since there is no reason to believe a team is offering him the max.

If he is a baller, he will have a spot in the NBA. Guys who run afoul of the law, abuse drugs, etc. tend to have a harder time sticking opposed to clean-cut, well-spoken and educated players.

Again, if he can ball, he will get paid.


The bottom line is that there are teams out there at use advanced metrics and actually believe them, and that's why Lin will ultimately get paid a good amount.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 12:44 pm    Post subject:

Anthony Peeler wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
So you're saying every person has a cognitive bias? Of course. That's not in dispute at all. The fact that the "Harvard vs. inner city" angle, or the other ones you listed just don't pass the sniff test to me. But it apparently does for you. So that's why I think it's a ridiculous excuse. The "max argument" is really a strawman since there is no reason to believe a team is offering him the max.

If he is a baller, he will have a spot in the NBA. Guys who run afoul of the law, abuse drugs, etc. tend to have a harder time sticking opposed to clean-cut, well-spoken and educated players.

Again, if he can ball, he will get paid.


The bottom line is that there are teams out there at use advanced metrics and actually believe them, and that's why Lin will ultimately get paid a good amount.


And we all agree that fans of Lin too would have cognitive biases...we all do.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:05 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
Anthony Peeler wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
So you're saying every person has a cognitive bias? Of course. That's not in dispute at all. The fact that the "Harvard vs. inner city" angle, or the other ones you listed just don't pass the sniff test to me. But it apparently does for you. So that's why I think it's a ridiculous excuse. The "max argument" is really a strawman since there is no reason to believe a team is offering him the max.

If he is a baller, he will have a spot in the NBA. Guys who run afoul of the law, abuse drugs, etc. tend to have a harder time sticking opposed to clean-cut, well-spoken and educated players.

Again, if he can ball, he will get paid.


The bottom line is that there are teams out there at use advanced metrics and actually believe them, and that's why Lin will ultimately get paid a good amount.


And we all agree that fans of Lin too would have cognitive biases...we all do.


ABSOLUTELY
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 2:35 pm    Post subject:

Also I think we can all agree Lin got a lot more comfortable/confident as a Laker as the season went on because (not saying he was bad at the start of the season) he was playing at a whole different level by the end of the season and that was good to see. I'm still not convinced Kobe and him can succeed together and that's part of the reason I feel like he may not return but I hope he does because I like Lin as a Laker
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 3:10 pm    Post subject:

Captain America wrote:
Also I think we can all agree Lin got a lot more comfortable/confident as a Laker as the season went on because (not saying he was bad at the start of the season) he was playing at a whole different level by the end of the season and that was good to see. I'm still not convinced Kobe and him can succeed together and that's part of the reason I feel like he may not return but I hope he does because I like Lin as a Laker


Be honest, if Kobe keep playing like this year, it will be hard to success with anyone. The success is playoff not like passing MJ. So Kobe and Lin both need to change. They did have good game together like vs Hornets.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 6:03 pm    Post subject:

Lakers2015 wrote:
Anthony Peeler wrote:
When I think back on early in the season, I don't think "Man, Lin is killing the team." I remember thinking, "Man, Kobe is shooting way too much AND missing most of his shots. And the Lakers interior defense is terrible. And the Lakers in general are slow."


Lin was killing the team as a starter because he was a defensive liability, was erratic as a shooter, and was turning the ball over a lot. As a backup he was much better.


Our problems were in the middle. Nobody on the team was able to make up for that.

Blaming it on Lin is just due to a personal bias against him for some reason.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 6:45 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
We'll see. Lots of NBA teams out there with advanced metrics and if they are true believers in Lin he will get compensated and find a place. If not, like the majority of players in the NBA, he's going to have to embrace and learn how to fit into any team's system.


You keep saying that but that's what he did. He tried to play in Byron's system and adjusted his game. He played slower ball with Kobe, Hill and Boozer. He played off-ball as a Rocket, he played off-ball some as a Laker. It's not like he didn't learn to play in whatever system was there. It's just he played better with the spacing and PnR player (Davis, sometimes Black) that exploited his strengths as a basketball player.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 7:00 pm    Post subject:

bws94 wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
We'll see. Lots of NBA teams out there with advanced metrics and if they are true believers in Lin he will get compensated and find a place. If not, like the majority of players in the NBA, he's going to have to embrace and learn how to fit into any team's system.


You keep saying that but that's what he did. He tried to play in Byron's system and adjusted his game. He played slower ball with Kobe, Hill and Boozer. He played off-ball as a Rocket, he played off-ball some as a Laker. It's not like he didn't learn to play in whatever system was there. It's just he played better with the spacing and PnR player (Davis, sometimes Black) that exploited his strengths as a basketball player.

So why are folks saying that he needs the right "system."
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 7:21 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
bws94 wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
We'll see. Lots of NBA teams out there with advanced metrics and if they are true believers in Lin he will get compensated and find a place. If not, like the majority of players in the NBA, he's going to have to embrace and learn how to fit into any team's system.


You keep saying that but that's what he did. He tried to play in Byron's system and adjusted his game. He played slower ball with Kobe, Hill and Boozer. He played off-ball as a Rocket, he played off-ball some as a Laker. It's not like he didn't learn to play in whatever system was there. It's just he played better with the spacing and PnR player (Davis, sometimes Black) that exploited his strengths as a basketball player.

So why are folks saying that he needs the right "system."


None of the top 40 point guards could have flourished with aging, chucking ballhog Kobe this year. He's like the diva #1 rotation pitcher in baseball that demands the team keep an extra catcher on the roster just so he can catch every fifth game... except in his case he needs a deferent PG like Fish to keep him happy. It would have been fascinating to see if CP3 would have seamlessly blended with Kobe but my guess is that eventually they would have butted heads... especially if Chris became equally popular.

Who knows, nothing would make me happier than to see Kobe end up thriving with a dominant PG like Westbrook or Rondo... but if this happens it defies every empirical example of evidence we've seen up to this point. I kept saying to myself for the last three years... Kobe's gonna be different than Mike and learn to defer to the youngsters so he can win that 6th ring... but I don't think it's in his DNA to ever play second fiddle to anyone. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Kobe should have taken a back seat to the inconsistent Lin of the first half of the season... but Kobe almost completely froze him out... Therefore, it's impossible to judge Lin based on how badly he blended with Kobe during the first half.
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