X's and O's Discussion (With Video)
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... , 19, 20, 21  Next

 
This forum is locked: you cannot post, reply to, or edit topics.    LakersGround.net Forum Index -> Topic HOF This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies.
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
azrael187
Sixth Man
Sixth Man


Joined: 03 Nov 2014
Posts: 42

PostPosted: Wed Feb 25, 2015 7:43 am    Post subject:

fiendishoc wrote:
It doesn't account for certain very important types of help defense within schemes. Goldsberry does mention that good/bad teammates on the court will impact individual defensive performances with these new measurements, but the problem goes beyond that. Let's use pick and roll defense as an example. If your scheme is say have the weakside wing bump the roll man on screen rolls (or help and recover after the pass/drive), then you could have a case where your wing defender is awesome at completely blowing up the opposing team's pick and rolls, but lets his own man shoot slightly above average- then the new metrics might label him a below average defender, because he isn't properly being assigned his share of defensive responsibility. (This could be why you see MKG getting such a bad rating despite being the key defender for one of the better defensive teams)

What would be more useful, albeit more manually intensive, would be to identify and tag both the offensive play and the scheme to defend against it, while outlining the responsibilities of the 5 defenders on the court in defending the play depending on what happens (and where it happens), and then assigning the results of the efficiency of the play type to the individual defenders proportionally. If you get a big enough sample, then the relative effectiveness of the different defenders would be teased out.

Not saying that their method isn't or won't be useful. But that it likely needs quite a bit of fine tuning before we can start quoting the new stats to compare players against each other.


My understanding was that one defender can only guard one offender, but multiple defenders can guard one offender, so pick and rolls, switches and help defense would be captured to some extent. When someone helps, their offender is who they are helping on with what traditionally being their man having no defender. They also broke down the metrics into zones/basis (basis 1 is at the rim, basis 2 is restricted area, basis 3 is midrange, basis 4 is corner threes, basis 5 is center threes and residuals is everything else) and players into categories (group 1 are guards, group 2 are wing players, group 3 are big men). Scheme can shift the between basis, increasing one basis at the extent of the other while teammates can increase or decrease across the board.

For a scheme that does a help and recover from a wing on pick and rolls, I think it would reduce efficacy/frequency in basis 1, but have an increase in basis 3 or 5 as they tried to recover. Re: MKG being rated as a bad defender, if you're talking about table 4/efficiency from the academic paper, he's rated as the best wing defender at the rim, which may match the idea he blows up pick and rolls.

I do wonder about how good a metric frequency reduction is overall as a metric because the shots have to come from somewhere. Some reduced frequency is obviously good: at the rim and from corner threes. If a player is good at reducing the offenders efficiency wouldn't you want to increase the frequency offenders shoot on him?

To your point about manually adding in offensive plays and defensive scheme to the model, Grantland posted an article a while ago about the Raptors really digging into the data and creating ghosts about "ideal" defensive positions.

http://grantland.com/features/the-toronto-raptors-sportvu-cameras-nba-analytical-revolution/
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
fiendishoc
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 7030

PostPosted: Wed Feb 25, 2015 10:42 am    Post subject:

^ Regarding MKG I was referring to the fractional "points against" and volume score that that they list out at the end of part 3 of their Sloan conference paper. They are the same metrics that Goldsberry uses to anoint CP3 the best perimeter defender in the NBA.

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/SSAC15-RP-Finalist-Counterpoints2.pdf

On that table MKG has the second highest points against and also a bad volume score rating. However, according to NBA.com, both that year and this year, he has had the best defensive rating on the team among rotation players and one the best defensive ratings in the entire league.

Keep an eye on #14 for this entire possession:
http://on.nba.com/17yFCOg

MKG has a direct hand in shutting down two pick and rolls and a spot up/ drive attempt, and you could also say that he is responsible for putting Griffin in a bad spot on the 4th Clipper attempt- but based on on-ball matchups is likely only given fair credit on the volume score with shutting down Barnes on his spot-up. Also, because the fractional method for assigning points against is split between the original matchup and pre-shot matchup, he probably picks up a lot of points due to being the help man all the time.

The Raptor piece I did read before, and is also pretty cool. You can see Milwaukee this year playing the sort of aggressive defense that the "ghosts" advocate, either coincidentally or not, and it looks like its working. The Raptors' program already has all the inputs needed to implement what I was talking about with my idea- it categorizes offensive actions and takes into account the defensive scheme, and logs the result of each action, which can then be used compare players in similar help situations, or calculate expected points saved.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
azrael187
Sixth Man
Sixth Man


Joined: 03 Nov 2014
Posts: 42

PostPosted: Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:09 pm    Post subject:

^ I wasn't sure what to make of table 3 of the Sloan conference paper, the top 5 and bottom 5 don't make a whole lot of sense to me. The best wing defender in the league is Mike Dunleavy?! Where is Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, Jimmy Butler? Nick Calathes is a better defender than Tony Allen? Feel like when they aggregated things into a nice number (points against) it added more noise than subtracted it. There has to be a skew there, but without the raw data, I can't figure it out.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
JLinfanJoe
Starting Rotation
Starting Rotation


Joined: 10 Dec 2014
Posts: 253

PostPosted: Sat Feb 28, 2015 7:49 am    Post subject:

Two questions about the second unit team defense recently:

1) How is Wes Johnson doing with defensive rotations? (to me, he looks like he has a new edge to his defense after Byron Scott caught his attention with that recent DNP-CD. Team defense doesn't seem to be suffering with him on second unit now, so have his defensive rotations improved?)

2) Is Jordan Hill being deployed kind of like how you mentioned Indiana Pacers deploying Roy Hibbert and David West (both Ed Davis and Jordan Hill stay in the paint in some sort of staggered configuration)? His lack of foot speed recovering from a hard show early on in season isn't there now, I am guessing because Byron Scott is no longer asking him to do something he seems not physically capable of.




Second unit team defense has looked really good to me for several games now. Even though Johnson and Hill are out there on second unit, they don't seem to be the defensive liabilities they were early on in season with starting unit.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
fiendishoc
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 7030

PostPosted: Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:16 am    Post subject:

JLinfanJoe wrote:
Two questions about the second unit team defense recently:

1) How is Wes Johnson doing with defensive rotations? (to me, he looks like he has a new edge to his defense after Byron Scott caught his attention with that recent DNP-CD. Team defense doesn't seem to be suffering with him on second unit now, so have his defensive rotations improved?)

2) Is Jordan Hill being deployed kind of like how you mentioned Indiana Pacers deploying Roy Hibbert and David West (both Ed Davis and Jordan Hill stay in the paint in some sort of staggered configuration)? His lack of foot speed recovering from a hard show early on in season isn't there now, I am guessing because Byron Scott is no longer asking him to do something he seems not physically capable of.




Second unit team defense has looked really good to me for several games now. Even though Johnson and Hill are out there on second unit, they don't seem to be the defensive liabilities they were early on in season with starting unit.


1) Haven't really noticed if he's improved or not. Maybe because he hasn't gone up against prolific shooters recntly. I remember he gave up an open 3 to Hood in the Utah game and got backdoored in the Boston game, both mental lapses. He's better than Kelly though. Both tend to get into help position late and then can get burned when the pass goes back to their man, as they can't change direction fast enough.

2) Hill has been dropping back on the PnR for a while now, maybe for like 30+ games. I think Sacre and Davis should too, but those two are still doing the soft show.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
qiantom
Starting Rotation
Starting Rotation


Joined: 12 Jul 2014
Posts: 612

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2015 6:31 pm    Post subject:

Since All-Star break, they seem to be playing much more PnR with the guards and less so-called "Princeton". Anyone agree?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
Phillycheese
Starting Rotation
Starting Rotation


Joined: 13 Jul 2014
Posts: 332

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2015 7:20 pm    Post subject:

Lin said it in his post game interview today.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
SunshineMan89
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 14 Nov 2010
Posts: 1214

PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2015 7:42 pm    Post subject:

azrael187 wrote:
^ I wasn't sure what to make of table 3 of the Sloan conference paper, the top 5 and bottom 5 don't make a whole lot of sense to me. The best wing defender in the league is Mike Dunleavy?! Where is Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, Jimmy Butler? Nick Calathes is a better defender than Tony Allen? Feel like when they aggregated things into a nice number (points against) it added more noise than subtracted it. There has to be a skew there, but without the raw data, I can't figure it out.


I think in this case, the main problem is with their use of the term 'best.'

The data points they've gathered are very valuable--in particular, the defensive shot charts are awesome. But I think the leaderboard is a bit misleading in that we still need to think about how to adjust for scheme (more likely to be helped vs. be the helper) and offensive player talent.

They already do that somewhat in the sense that the points saved are relative to a counterfactual determined by expected scoring. But the players Dunleavy is guarding are systematically different from those Butler is guarding, and I think breaking up defensive metrics into a set of discrete skills would be better for actually anointing a 'best' defender.

For instance, I would interpret Goldsberry's list to say that Dunleavy and Greivis Vasquez, despite both being perceived as below-average defenders due to mediocre athleticism, are nonetheless effective at preventing their assignments from scoring. Maybe they do an especially good job of closing out on shooters; maybe they just don't gamble for steals. In any case, it's interesting to see the advances being made.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
azrael187
Sixth Man
Sixth Man


Joined: 03 Nov 2014
Posts: 42

PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2015 6:02 am    Post subject:

SunshineMan89 wrote:
azrael187 wrote:
^ I wasn't sure what to make of table 3 of the Sloan conference paper, the top 5 and bottom 5 don't make a whole lot of sense to me. The best wing defender in the league is Mike Dunleavy?! Where is Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, Jimmy Butler? Nick Calathes is a better defender than Tony Allen? Feel like when they aggregated things into a nice number (points against) it added more noise than subtracted it. There has to be a skew there, but without the raw data, I can't figure it out.


I think in this case, the main problem is with their use of the term 'best.'

The data points they've gathered are very valuable--in particular, the defensive shot charts are awesome. But I think the leaderboard is a bit misleading in that we still need to think about how to adjust for scheme (more likely to be helped vs. be the helper) and offensive player talent.

They already do that somewhat in the sense that the points saved are relative to a counterfactual determined by expected scoring. But the players Dunleavy is guarding are systematically different from those Butler is guarding, and I think breaking up defensive metrics into a set of discrete skills would be better for actually anointing a 'best' defender.

For instance, I would interpret Goldsberry's list to say that Dunleavy and Greivis Vasquez, despite both being perceived as below-average defenders due to mediocre athleticism, are nonetheless effective at preventing their assignments from scoring. Maybe they do an especially good job of closing out on shooters; maybe they just don't gamble for steals. In any case, it's interesting to see the advances being made.


The study definitely added new defensive metrics to the general public and has lots of value. I just had issue with that one table because I thought they made a single number that could compare players to be sexy for Sloan. Looking at the top 5, the guards and wings are considered to be solid-ish defensive players (they won't hurt you on defense, but won't lock somebody down either) that are all on strong defensive teams with multiple plus defenders on the court, so it could be the influence of teammates. In table 2 Steph Curry was listed as the number 6 best defensive point guard, when that season (I think, this was the 2013-2014 season) he was hidden on the weakest offensive player. The authors themselves mention that they need to figure out ways to remove the confounding factors of scheme and teammates, which may be impossible given how interconnected basketball is.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
fiendishoc
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 7030

PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:39 am    Post subject:

qiantom wrote:
Since All-Star break, they seem to be playing much more PnR with the guards and less so-called "Princeton". Anyone agree?


They never ran much Princeton derived sets to begin with, and they did run quite a lot of pick and roll in the past as well. What there was less of was that walk-up horns elbow set, although it's still there.

The difference I think has been the pace being picked up significantly these past few games, which lets them get into early offense opportunities, and opens up the floor. You see them inbound the ball quickly after made baskets and everyone's running down.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
fiendishoc
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 7030

PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:43 am    Post subject:

azrael187 wrote:
SunshineMan89 wrote:
azrael187 wrote:
^ I wasn't sure what to make of table 3 of the Sloan conference paper, the top 5 and bottom 5 don't make a whole lot of sense to me. The best wing defender in the league is Mike Dunleavy?! Where is Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, Jimmy Butler? Nick Calathes is a better defender than Tony Allen? Feel like when they aggregated things into a nice number (points against) it added more noise than subtracted it. There has to be a skew there, but without the raw data, I can't figure it out.


I think in this case, the main problem is with their use of the term 'best.'

The data points they've gathered are very valuable--in particular, the defensive shot charts are awesome. But I think the leaderboard is a bit misleading in that we still need to think about how to adjust for scheme (more likely to be helped vs. be the helper) and offensive player talent.

They already do that somewhat in the sense that the points saved are relative to a counterfactual determined by expected scoring. But the players Dunleavy is guarding are systematically different from those Butler is guarding, and I think breaking up defensive metrics into a set of discrete skills would be better for actually anointing a 'best' defender.

For instance, I would interpret Goldsberry's list to say that Dunleavy and Greivis Vasquez, despite both being perceived as below-average defenders due to mediocre athleticism, are nonetheless effective at preventing their assignments from scoring. Maybe they do an especially good job of closing out on shooters; maybe they just don't gamble for steals. In any case, it's interesting to see the advances being made.


The study definitely added new defensive metrics to the general public and has lots of value. I just had issue with that one table because I thought they made a single number that could compare players to be sexy for Sloan. Looking at the top 5, the guards and wings are considered to be solid-ish defensive players (they won't hurt you on defense, but won't lock somebody down either) that are all on strong defensive teams with multiple plus defenders on the court, so it could be the influence of teammates. In table 2 Steph Curry was listed as the number 6 best defensive point guard, when that season (I think, this was the 2013-2014 season) he was hidden on the weakest offensive player. The authors themselves mention that they need to figure out ways to remove the confounding factors of scheme and teammates, which may be impossible given how interconnected basketball is.


The issue with the defensive matchup due to help defense schemes is not only on the points scored on metric, but all the other ones as well, including the efficiency & volume stats, and therefore the defensive shot charts as well.

Like you guys noted, it matters more in ranking the players (within play type rankings would make more sense), and the authors did leave it up to future adjustment.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
JLinfanJoe
Starting Rotation
Starting Rotation


Joined: 10 Dec 2014
Posts: 253

PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:52 pm    Post subject:

Lakers Early Offense*?: http://youtu.be/lbhYCFX-of4?t=5m59s (looks like a bit of a scrambled mess to me there)


Nets Early Offense: http://www.hoopsplaybook.ca/fast_breaks/nets_early_offence.html

Drag Screen: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/5-signature-sets-of-the-nba-title-contending-teams/





* Hard to tell if Ed Davis was about to intentionally set a drag screen for Lin, or just turning to read what Lin was going to do there, but seems like it could be a good option if Lakers can get more stops and really start to push the ball in transition aggressively (Coach Dave mentioned drag screen in pre-season and said he thought it would be part of Lakers offense this year).

Your thoughts?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
cheesysapien
Starting Rotation
Starting Rotation


Joined: 15 Oct 2014
Posts: 357

PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:51 pm    Post subject:

Slightly off topic, but related ... Shane Battier on analytics and guarding Kobe. http://bigthink.com/videos/big-data-and-basketball-with-shane-battier
_________________
"We have a lot of guys that have been kinda discarded ... Myself with the injury and the age. Jeremy ... a bunch of players who other teams really felt they had no use for. So we have that kind of attitude built into ourselves" -- Kobe Bryant
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
fiendishoc
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 7030

PostPosted: Wed Mar 04, 2015 5:54 am    Post subject:

JLinfanJoe wrote:
Lakers Early Offense*?: http://youtu.be/lbhYCFX-of4?t=5m59s (looks like a bit of a scrambled mess to me there)

Nets Early Offense: http://www.hoopsplaybook.ca/fast_breaks/nets_early_offence.html

Drag Screen: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/5-signature-sets-of-the-nba-title-contending-teams/

* Hard to tell if Ed Davis was about to intentionally set a drag screen for Lin, or just turning to read what Lin was going to do there, but seems like it could be a good option if Lakers can get more stops and really start to push the ball in transition aggressively (Coach Dave mentioned drag screen in pre-season and said he thought it would be part of Lakers offense this year).

Your thoughts?


The Lakers do set drag screens. Just not on that particular possession- Davis looked like he was just trying to get into position.

Sometimes they will set it, but one of our big's defenders would get down the court before them to act as an extra defender in the paint. You can't have anyone lagging behind on getting up the floor on offense. Though I thought they ran drag screens successfully a couple times during the win streak.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
fiendishoc
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 7030

PostPosted: Fri Mar 06, 2015 1:19 am    Post subject: Lakers try to go at Whiteside and get rejected.

The Lakers offense went cold during a stretch starting about 3 minutes into in the 3rd quarter against the Heat, which led to transition opportunities and pretty much cost the Lakers the game.

The Laker bigs (Boozer #5, Sacre #50, and then Davis #21) repeatedly posted up on driving/cutting plays, letting their defenders clog the lanes. The Heat would let them receive the ball with their shotblocker Whiteside in position to contest:

Here, Boozer sets a pindown for Kelly and then posts up. Gets the ball and gets stuffed by Whiteside.
Video http://on.nba.com/1wLc1Ns
Movement http://on.nba.com/1wKXr8W

The next offensive possession, Boozer sets a high screen for Clarkson who drives middle. Sacre posts up on the strong side, pushing up Ellington a little further up the 3 pt line, and giving Ellington's man an easier opportunity to help cut off penetration. Clarkson has to pull back and give it up to Sacre in the post. Sacre tries a hook on Whiteside and gets stuffed.
Video http://on.nba.com/1wLdbst
Movement http://on.nba.com/1wKWKfF

Sacre gets subbed out for Davis, but the Lakers again go right at Whiteside. The Lakers run their Horns Elbow play with Boozer with the ball in the high post, and Davis on the weak side high post. Ellington cuts to the basket, but Whiteside sags off Davis to help on the cut. Boozer throws to Davis, who posts up on Whiteside and hits a difficult hook over the tall shotblocker.
Video http://on.nba.com/1Be8YMl
Movement http://on.nba.com/1wKX8L5

On the next possession Davis sets a screen for Ellington, who also drives middle. But this time Boozer is posting up on the weak side, and man is able to run into the paint, cutting off Wayne's penetration. Boozer is also in the way of Davis' roll so he's forced to spot up at the freethrow line, where Wayne throws it to him. He's not a threat there, but Whiteside blocks his shot anyway, because he didn't have to help on the ballhandler as much.
Video http://on.nba.com/1wKXgdM
Movement http://on.nba.com/1wKXhOE

These were part of a stretch where the Lakers had a 5 point lead slip into a six point deficit. If the bigs were in a position to pull the help out of the paint, or on the short corner baseline to threaten the basket when the shotblocker helped, then they may not have to had to deal with Whiteside's freakish wingspan on so many possessions in a row.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
JLinfanJoe
Starting Rotation
Starting Rotation


Joined: 10 Dec 2014
Posts: 253

PostPosted: Fri Mar 06, 2015 11:03 am    Post subject:

With Grizzlies game tonight, any idea if Grizzlies still overplay their pnr defense like this article says they did a few seasons ago?:

Quote:
"All season, the Memphis Grizzlies' defense was the league's best at being the actor. Led by Marc Gasol's unbelievable defensive intelligence, the Grizzlies overplayed teams to the point where they couldn't do anything they wanted to do offensively. When you force any team out of its first option, it is going to struggle.

But in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, the San Antonio Spurs turned the actor vs. reactor concept on its head. How? By disguising their plays."



http://www.sbnation.com/2013/5/20/4347076/spurs-grizzlies-nba-playoffs-2013-breakdown/
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
TTNN4
Sixth Man
Sixth Man


Joined: 21 Jul 2014
Posts: 42

PostPosted: Fri Mar 06, 2015 11:54 am    Post subject: Re: Lakers try to go at Whiteside and get rejected.

fiendishoc wrote:
The Lakers offense went cold during a stretch starting about 3 minutes into in the 3rd quarter against the Heat, which led to transition opportunities and pretty much cost the Lakers the game.

The Laker bigs (Boozer #5, Sacre #50, and then Davis #21) repeatedly posted up on driving/cutting plays, letting their defenders clog the lanes. The Heat would let them receive the ball with their shotblocker Whiteside in position to contest:

Here, Boozer sets a pindown for Kelly and then posts up. Gets the ball and gets stuffed by Whiteside.
Video http://on.nba.com/1wLc1Ns
Movement http://on.nba.com/1wKXr8W

The next offensive possession, Boozer sets a high screen for Clarkson who drives middle. Sacre posts up on the strong side, pushing up Ellington a little further up the 3 pt line, and giving Ellington's man an easier opportunity to help cut off penetration. Clarkson has to pull back and give it up to Sacre in the post. Sacre tries a hook on Whiteside and gets stuffed.
Video http://on.nba.com/1wLdbst
Movement http://on.nba.com/1wKWKfF

Sacre gets subbed out for Davis, but the Lakers again go right at Whiteside. The Lakers run their Horns Elbow play with Boozer with the ball in the high post, and Davis on the weak side high post. Ellington cuts to the basket, but Whiteside sags off Davis to help on the cut. Boozer throws to Davis, who posts up on Whiteside and hits a difficult hook over the tall shotblocker.
Video http://on.nba.com/1Be8YMl
Movement http://on.nba.com/1wKX8L5

On the next possession Davis sets a screen for Ellington, who also drives middle. But this time Boozer is posting up on the weak side, and man is able to run into the paint, cutting off Wayne's penetration. Boozer is also in the way of Davis' roll so he's forced to spot up at the freethrow line, where Wayne throws it to him. He's not a threat there, but Whiteside blocks his shot anyway, because he didn't have to help on the ballhandler as much.
Video http://on.nba.com/1wKXgdM
Movement http://on.nba.com/1wKXhOE

These were part of a stretch where the Lakers had a 5 point lead slip into a six point deficit. If the bigs were in a position to pull the help out of the paint, or on the short corner baseline to threaten the basket when the shotblocker helped, then they may not have to had to deal with Whiteside's freakish wingspan on so many possessions in a row.


Thanks, nice analysis. I also feels that in Heat game, there was less space compare to previous couple of games. Not sure why Byron make this change though, is he up to test something out? Or the previous couple of games were only some tests, and he is going back to his old sets?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
fiendishoc
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 7030

PostPosted: Fri Mar 06, 2015 10:08 pm    Post subject:

^ I don't know for sure, but I think Scott leaves the positioning up to individual players, outside the basic play call. So it will vary from game to game, and also depend on the lineups.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
fiendishoc
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 7030

PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2015 3:24 am    Post subject:

Haven't updated this in a while. The two new periods are I: post- ASB (8 games), and then J: Hill and Black returning to the starting lineup (5 games). I anticipate that this current lineup runs six more games before Scott changes it again.

Lakers Advanced Stats by Season Split
Code:
Section   GP   Record       OffRtg         DefRtg        NetRtg         AST%          AST/TO        AST Ratio   OREB%         DREB%          TO Ratio      eFG%          TS%      PACE
A         10   1-9          103.6          114.7         -11.1          53.3          1.52          15          28.6          72.6          13.2          46.2          51.7     97.88
B          6   2-4          106.3          112.6          -6.4          50.8          1.66          15.7          28          74.8          12.6          49.7          53.2     96.17
C          4   2-2          104.9          105.2          -0.3          50.3          1.61          15          20.3          73.2          12.1          49.7          53.6     100.68
D          7   3-4          100.3          105.6          -5.3          58.8          2             16.3          24          74.4          10.9          45.5          49.8     96.85
E          9   3-6          102.9          108            -5.1          57.6          1.64          17          23.3          74.4          13.8          50.1          53.3     97.36
F          7   1-6           95.3          101.7          -6.5          59.2          1.22          15.6        25.1          79.1          16.9          45.8          50.4     95.64
G          5   1-4           95.1          102.3          -7.1          53            1.39          14.9        24.2          74.4          14.1          44.4          48.8     94.63
H          5   0-5           99.4          113.6          -14.2         58.4          1.79          16.3        31.3          79.3          12.6          44.9          48       93.19
I          8   3-5           102           103.2          -1.2          55.6          1.89          17          19.4          75.7          11.8          49.4          52.6     98.37
J          5   1-4           98.4          102.6           -4.2         60.2          1.31          16.6        32.5          83.3          17.3          46.4          50.7     95.1


Average Opponent Ratings & Lakers Off/Def performance vs Avg Opponent Ratings
Code:
    Bet   Off   Def   Net   Off+-   Def+-   Net+-
A    +9   105   101   4.0      2      10      -7
B    +6   103   103   0.8      4      9      -5
C    +5   103   103   0.4      2      2       0
D    +4   102   104   -1.8    -4      3      -7
E    +8   105   102   3.3      1      3      -2
F    +5   104   104    0.3    -8     -2      -6
G    +9   103   102    1      -7      0      -7
H    +8   103   103    0      -3     11      -14
I    +7   101   102    -0.3    0      2      -2
J    +6   104   102    2      -4     -2      -2


Reference
Code:
Section A: Start of the season, before Nick Young returned
Section B: Nick Young returns from injury
Section C: Team adopts a more conservative defensive philosophy
Section D: Boozer and Lin moved to the bench, Davis and Price become starters
Section E: Kobe begins to sit out nights, and plays the facilitator role when he returns
Section F: Tarik Black plays his first meaningful minutes for the team
Section G: Kobe ruled out for the season with shoulder injury.  Kelly, Sacre, Clarkson, and Ellington enter starting lineup.
Section H: Hill injured, replaced by Black at PF
Section I: Post All Star Break
Section J: Hill and Black re-enter starting lineup

OffRtg: Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg: Points allowed per 100 possessions
PACE:   Possessions per 48 minutes

Off+-:  Lakers offensive rating minus average opponent defensive rating
Def+-:  Lakers defensive rating minus average opponent offensive rating
Net+-:  Off+- minus Def+- (Net Rtg adjusted for strength of schedule)
Bet:    Avg betting spread from Teamrankings
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
JLinfanJoe
Starting Rotation
Starting Rotation


Joined: 10 Dec 2014
Posts: 253

PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2015 7:17 am    Post subject:

Hi fiendishoc:

May I ask for your take on this Lin "turnover" late in Q4 against Warriors yesterday?:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0dru1Kp-eA&feature=youtu.be&t=7m28s





(reviewing it closely and freeze framing it, it looks to me that Lin threw the ball to where he thought Boozer would be (cutting aggressively to the basket for layup), and if he had completed that cut like Lin anticipated, Bogut would not have been to come around him and deflect it for a turnover. Rim may have also protected Boozer's layup from Bogut block (?)

Looking at the offensive configuration to start play and lineup of players out there (it is same lineup that started season except Ellington is on floor instead of Kobe), vs. wins against Celtics and Bucks, seems like Lakers offense is in a no man's land between the type of offense Byron Scott envisioned at beginning of season and the true spread pick and roll (Lin and Ed Davis at end of Bucks game: https://youtu.be/ZCgb_kj73vo?t=3m59s ) or drag screen / spread pick and pop (Lin and Boozer at end of Celtics game: https://youtu.be/TKVHXxfaHCM?t=7m00s ) that actually led to Lakers victories earlier this year). Looks like Lakers were running a mismash offense late in Warriors game (again, Byron Scott seems like he keeps wanting to gravitate back to same starting lineup as beginning of year with Boozer and Hill on floor together on offense and defense).

To me, Lin rarely makes mistakes with his reads or passes when 1) he is purely instinctive read and react, and 2) he has defense off balance. His issues seem to be when he tries to deliberately manufacture a pass like that (consciously forcing the issue, so to speak), and also when defense isn't already off balance and is waiting, locked in, and reading to pick off any pass he makes (that they also know is coming because his role on team seems often to just be distribute the ball and get out of the way; they often don't have to come charging out at him to contest his own individual offense because of how Byron Scott chooses to deploy him). That turnover Lin threw right to Knicks on that 5 on 1 break recent game I thought was Lin being selfish in that seemed he wanted to push on a show early on in game for Knicks fans who may have been watching MSG feed (see the mistake Dolan made no look pass being deliberately manufactured by Lin).

Lin's second turnover right after that haven't reviewed on YouTube yet, but I suspect it was yet another one of his shaky handle when he allows defense to play him very physically type turnovers (e. g. pushing defender away with one hand and then dribbling the ball way out from his body with other hand, which I am guessing is a trick he learned at lower levels of basketball but perhaps can no longer get away with against NBA caliber athletes (?): e. g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJ72PMfAUZw&feature=youtu.be&t=3m & https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLf9JOKzkCQ&feature=youtu.be&t=4m3s )

Second turnover I thought was Lin's fault (handle becomes shaky when he allows defender to muscle him up like that); first "turnover" may have been receiver not making cut quarterback thought he was going to make.


And as always thanks for continuing to update the starting lineup stats above! (any data on how good, or bad, Boozer and Hill are when they are both on court together on defense, like whole start of season, and now for a few minutes in first and third quarter when Lakers start transition from full starting unit to full second unit?)


Last edited by JLinfanJoe on Tue Mar 17, 2015 8:10 am; edited 1 time in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
fiendishoc
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 7030

PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2015 8:10 am    Post subject:

^ The videos are blocked but I know which ones you're talking about. You're overthinking the first one. Lin simply shouldn't have jumped before he made that pass. Boozer was in the right spot and pass was on target- unfortunately it was an easy read for Bogut once Lin was in the air.

Another problem with that play is that the reason Bogut was comfortable hanging out in the paint was because he didn't think Hill was a threat to shoot a 3 from the corner- note that Hill was just inside the line. Unfortunately it seems that Byron does not approve of Hill taking the corner three (from the end of 1st quarter interview), even though he's shown that he can knock it down.

In the second one, given the way that they were spaced - Boozer in the opposite high post- Lin shouldn't have gone back in the direction of the screen as he turned the corner, as he dribbled right into the help. Instead, once he decided not go strong side against Bogut, he probably should have kicked it back out to Boozer early for the team to try to find another opening.

Those plays were a bit forced, and the Warriors were aggressive enough to capitalize.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
JLinfanJoe
Starting Rotation
Starting Rotation


Joined: 10 Dec 2014
Posts: 253

PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2015 8:14 am    Post subject:

Quote:
"Another problem with that play is that the reason Bogut was comfortable hanging out in the paint was because he didn't think Hill was a threat to shoot a 3 from the corner."


Had the same thought.

Byron Scott was kind of running a spread pick and roll for Lin, but not really.

Disconcerting that Byron Scott seems like he keeps want to go back to what looked so ugly at beginning of season.

Was looking forward to Lin starting the last 10 games of season, but gotta worry about what lineup of players Byron Scott will put him out there with (e. g. suddenly Ed Davis back to bench unit again?)
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
fiendishoc
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 7030

PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2015 8:15 am    Post subject:

Quote:
And as always thanks for continuing to update the starting lineup stats above! (any data on how good, or bad, Boozer and Hill are when they are both on court together on defense, like whole start of season, and now for a few minutes in first and third quarter when Lakers start transition from full starting unit to full second unit?)


They give up 117.1 points per 100 possessions when they're on the floor together. It's basically the worst two man lineup on defense for the entire season. Technically Sacre + Tariq are a tiny bit worse (117.2), but their sample size is a lot smaller (131 vs 527 minutes).
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
JLinfanJoe
Starting Rotation
Starting Rotation


Joined: 10 Dec 2014
Posts: 253

PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2015 8:21 am    Post subject:

^ LOL, immediately after I saw the lineup on floor at end of first and third quarters (transition from full first unit to full second unit) after the J lineup you added above, I started to chuckle and think "what a great stealth tank lineup."

Second unit doesn't seem to have potency and effectiveness it had before lineup change, and I think it is because they lose so much ground last few minutes of first and third quarter when Boozer and Hill on floor on defense together. Lin and Clarkson not meshing well on defense has surprised me, but I kind of think part of that is because Clarkson is asked to guard smaller framed point guards and his large frame would be better suited to matching up against bulkier shooting guards and let Lin try and defend more nimble point guards. Clarkson looks like he has a bit of inertia getting up to speed, but then is almost a blur in transition once he gets up to his top sustained speed in the open court.

Mismashed offensive schemes, and mismashed defensive lineups; no wonder Lakers don't look so good recently.


Lin's second turnover in Q4 (defense was locked in on Lin, but spacing on floor for Lakers didn't look very good, either; three Warriors converged on Lin, and looks like Curry may have knocked the ball loose as Lin was going to pass the ball back out to Boozer):

https://youtu.be/0B08s9cB_Yc?t=8m12s


Lineup on floor then: http://popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20150316&game=LALGSW (Lin, Ellington, Johnson, Boozer & Hill)

Really have to wonder how much fault for those two turnovers by Lin really belong to lineup Byron Scott chose to deploy then, not giving Lin the space he described as having after Celtics and Bucks victories.








Other thing that came to mind after Lin has had alot of his passes deflected by Hawks then Warriors was this article about how Manu Ginobilli kept the Miami Heat guessing so much in finals because of the trickery and deception he employed with his passes (right now the extent of Lin's disguise, deception, misdirection, or trickery in his game consists solely of the no look pass; other than that, Lin seems to play offense and defense so honestly that opposing player or team knows what they will get if Lin does this or they do that; never any hesitation or uncertainy about what will happen):
Quote:
Manu Ginobili:

"In Game 1 of the NBA Finals, Manu Ginobili was his most magnificent (or Manuficent if you prefer): 16 points, five rebounds, three steals and just two turnovers for a team that bled turnovers all night. But it was his 11 assists that made him the most deadly. The Heat's aggressive trap out of pick and rolls is supposed to stall the ball, which allows them to lag off of shooters or the roll man. The Heat's length and strength is supposed to deter lob entry passes and quick-strike perimeter swings to shooters.

Ginobili rendered that element largely irrelevant.

Ginobili's passing isn't the laser-sharp precision instrument of Chris Paul, or the wide, sweeping tank rotation of LeBron James. His passing, which helped the Spurs win 110-95 in Game 1, is a brush stroke of creativity mixed with what Boris Diaw calls "craziness."

"It's really a bit of everything," Diaw said at practice Friday. "You can't define one quality in a passer like Manu. He's definitely got the vision, because he knows what's going to happen. It's the skill, to be able to make the pass and deliver the ball wherever you see somebody's free. Some guys have the [vision] but it's harder to efficiently, quickly make the pass to the right place. And he's got a little bit of craziness because he takes some risks sometimes by making passes others wouldn't if they're a little more conservative."


http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/24582262/manu-ginobilis-passing-craziness-opens-up-the-spurs-offense
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
Alloy
Starting Rotation
Starting Rotation


Joined: 28 Aug 2014
Posts: 132

PostPosted: Wed Mar 18, 2015 7:41 am    Post subject:

Lin was forcing the first play and he could have easily passed the ball before jumping in the air. That was mainly his fault. On the other hand, Lakers were not spacing the floor enough for the PG to have many options. So everything resets if the first option does not work ouT. I think the beauty of Spurs offense is that they have many options after the play started.



JLinfanJoe wrote:
^ LOL, immediately after I saw the lineup on floor at end of first and third quarters (transition from full first unit to full second unit) after the J lineup you added above, I started to chuckle and think "what a great stealth tank lineup."

Second unit doesn't seem to have potency and effectiveness it had before lineup change, and I think it is because they lose so much ground last few minutes of first and third quarter when Boozer and Hill on floor on defense together. Lin and Clarkson not meshing well on defense has surprised me, but I kind of think part of that is because Clarkson is asked to guard smaller framed point guards and his large frame would be better suited to matching up against bulkier shooting guards and let Lin try and defend more nimble point guards. Clarkson looks like he has a bit of inertia getting up to speed, but then is almost a blur in transition once he gets up to his top sustained speed in the open court.

Mismashed offensive schemes, and mismashed defensive lineups; no wonder Lakers don't look so good recently.


Lin's second turnover in Q4 (defense was locked in on Lin, but spacing on floor for Lakers didn't look very good, either; three Warriors converged on Lin, and looks like Curry may have knocked the ball loose as Lin was going to pass the ball back out to Boozer):

https://youtu.be/0B08s9cB_Yc?t=8m12s


Lineup on floor then: http://popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20150316&game=LALGSW (Lin, Ellington, Johnson, Boozer & Hill)

Really have to wonder how much fault for those two turnovers by Lin really belong to lineup Byron Scott chose to deploy then, not giving Lin the space he described as having after Celtics and Bucks victories.








Other thing that came to mind after Lin has had alot of his passes deflected by Hawks then Warriors was this article about how Manu Ginobilli kept the Miami Heat guessing so much in finals because of the trickery and deception he employed with his passes (right now the extent of Lin's disguise, deception, misdirection, or trickery in his game consists solely of the no look pass; other than that, Lin seems to play offense and defense so honestly that opposing player or team knows what they will get if Lin does this or they do that; never any hesitation or uncertainy about what will happen):
Quote:
Manu Ginobili:

"In Game 1 of the NBA Finals, Manu Ginobili was his most magnificent (or Manuficent if you prefer): 16 points, five rebounds, three steals and just two turnovers for a team that bled turnovers all night. But it was his 11 assists that made him the most deadly. The Heat's aggressive trap out of pick and rolls is supposed to stall the ball, which allows them to lag off of shooters or the roll man. The Heat's length and strength is supposed to deter lob entry passes and quick-strike perimeter swings to shooters.

Ginobili rendered that element largely irrelevant.

Ginobili's passing isn't the laser-sharp precision instrument of Chris Paul, or the wide, sweeping tank rotation of LeBron James. His passing, which helped the Spurs win 110-95 in Game 1, is a brush stroke of creativity mixed with what Boris Diaw calls "craziness."

"It's really a bit of everything," Diaw said at practice Friday. "You can't define one quality in a passer like Manu. He's definitely got the vision, because he knows what's going to happen. It's the skill, to be able to make the pass and deliver the ball wherever you see somebody's free. Some guys have the [vision] but it's harder to efficiently, quickly make the pass to the right place. And he's got a little bit of craziness because he takes some risks sometimes by making passes others wouldn't if they're a little more conservative."


http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/24582262/manu-ginobilis-passing-craziness-opens-up-the-spurs-offense
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
Display posts from previous:   
This forum is locked: you cannot post, reply to, or edit topics.    LakersGround.net Forum Index -> Topic HOF All times are GMT - 8 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... , 19, 20, 21  Next
Page 20 of 21
Jump to:  

 
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum






Graphics by uberzev
© 1995-2010 LakersGround.net. All Rights Reserved. Privacy Policy. Terms of Use.
LakersGround is an unofficial news source serving the fan community since 1995.
We are in no way associated with the Los Angeles Lakers or the National Basketball Association.


Powered by phpBB