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Jim99187
Franchise Player
Joined: 03 Jan 2014
Posts: 22138
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 Posted: Sat Apr 18, 2015 8:47 pm Post subject: |
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we were so sensitive to this prediction  |
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LakersNewEra
Star Player
Joined: 16 Apr 2014
Posts: 1526
Location: Vancouver BC
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 2:37 am Post subject: |
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Hire some of those guys to the FO. Serious. Just like the Grizzlies hired Hollinger.
We seriously seem to be lacking in the analytical departement. The way the team was run the last few years is nothing short of pitiful.
If they constantly get it right and the Lakers FO gets it wrong all the time and especially considering its such a huge disprecancy in their predictons, these guys have the FO beat at quite simply, the reality.
Bottom line, hire the guys coming up with these predictions. They have a better grasp on reality nowadays, no question about it. A FO as lost as the Lakers FO could definitely use the help from these guys. |
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LeBronte Jest
Star Player
Joined: 24 Nov 2010
Posts: 1236
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 5:38 am Post subject: |
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| Jim99187 wrote: | | we were so sensitive to this prediction |
Some people were flat out delusional, lol. I think someone even made a thread about us being a 3-4 seed. ...  |
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ringfinger
Retired Number
Joined: 08 Oct 2013
Posts: 29418
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 5:51 am Post subject: |
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| LakersNewEra wrote: | Hire some of those guys to the FO. Serious. Just like the Grizzlies hired Hollinger.
We seriously seem to be lacking in the analytical departement. The way the team was run the last few years is nothing short of pitiful.
If they constantly get it right and the Lakers FO gets it wrong all the time and especially considering its such a huge disprecancy in their predictons, these guys have the FO beat at quite simply, the reality.
Bottom line, hire the guys coming up with these predictions. They have a better grasp on reality nowadays, no question about it. A FO as lost as the Lakers FO could definitely use the help from these guys. |
I'm sorry but this makes no sense. What do you mean they get it right and the Lakers get it wrong?
The Lakers never come out and make predictions about how many games they're going to win.
Having a grasp on reality isn't hard. It just means think with your head, not with your heart. |
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Wilkes52
Star Player
Joined: 02 Jun 2009
Posts: 2415
Location: Far from home
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 6:54 am Post subject: |
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Well, returning to a .500 record in 2015-2016 would be a big step forward and yet I doubt another cellar contender effort is the most likely case.
No assets to trade, really. The FA market is tough to gauge. Making one improvement in the draft and perhaps one very complementary FA signing to work with with Randle seems possible. Nah, Lakers won't be very good but they won't be the league's dregs again. |
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GoldenThroat
Moderator
Joined: 25 Jul 2005
Posts: 37474
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 7:53 am Post subject: |
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| ringfinger wrote: | | LakersNewEra wrote: | Hire some of those guys to the FO. Serious. Just like the Grizzlies hired Hollinger.
We seriously seem to be lacking in the analytical departement. The way the team was run the last few years is nothing short of pitiful.
If they constantly get it right and the Lakers FO gets it wrong all the time and especially considering its such a huge disprecancy in their predictons, these guys have the FO beat at quite simply, the reality.
Bottom line, hire the guys coming up with these predictions. They have a better grasp on reality nowadays, no question about it. A FO as lost as the Lakers FO could definitely use the help from these guys. |
I'm sorry but this makes no sense. What do you mean they get it right and the Lakers get it wrong?
The Lakers never come out and make predictions about how many games they're going to win.
Having a grasp on reality isn't hard. It just means think with your head, not with your heart. |
Like this?
| ringfinger wrote: | | I agree with you though. 35-40 has been, and still is, my season win projection for this team (taking injuries in to account). Meaning, if we have a ton of injuries, we could be slightly worse, if we don't have many injuries at all we could be slightly better, but most likely, with a reasonable amount of injuries, 35-39 wins. |
LOL at the retroactive "I knew we were going to be this bad" stuff. Predicting that Kobe & Nash wouldn't be able to stay healthy was reasonable, but we missed a ton of games to injury outside of those two, and played a D-League roster for nearly the last quarter of the season, and still nearly hit this prediction. |
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Ziggy
Franchise Player
Joined: 10 Feb 2005
Posts: 12717
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 8:17 am Post subject: |
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Yeah, no way anyone could've predicted missing 300+ games due to injury. I was only counting on Nash to give us 15-20 mpg. I expected Kobe to come out slow and hopefully become 75% of what he was pre-achilles injury. He showed progression after Byron reduced his minutes and gave him back to backs off. The Randle injury knocked the wind out of the entire fan base.
This was just an unreal season. I don't care what ESPN predicted unless they foresaw this amount of injuries. If the prediction was purely based on the roster going into the season, then obviously they were wrong. |
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thedude1977
Star Player
Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1914
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 8:22 am Post subject: |
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| ringfinger wrote: | | LakersNewEra wrote: | Hire some of those guys to the FO. Serious. Just like the Grizzlies hired Hollinger.
We seriously seem to be lacking in the analytical departement. The way the team was run the last few years is nothing short of pitiful.
If they constantly get it right and the Lakers FO gets it wrong all the time and especially considering its such a huge disprecancy in their predictons, these guys have the FO beat at quite simply, the reality.
Bottom line, hire the guys coming up with these predictions. They have a better grasp on reality nowadays, no question about it. A FO as lost as the Lakers FO could definitely use the help from these guys. |
I'm sorry but this makes no sense. What do you mean they get it right and the Lakers get it wrong?
The Lakers never come out and make predictions about how many games they're going to win.
Having a grasp on reality isn't hard. It just means think with your head, not with your heart. |
http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakers/la-sp-lakers-mitch-kupchak-20140927-story.html
While Kupchak doesn't make a prediction of the specific number of games the team anticipated winning last year, he did say that the team's "expectations are to win a championship," a feat that requires at least winning enough games to make the playoffs.
ESPN predicted we'd win 22 games. The GM of the Lakers said the team expected a championship. ESPN was right and the Lakers weren't. |
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greenfrog
Retired Number
Joined: 02 Jan 2011
Posts: 36081
Location: 502 Bad Gateway
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 8:23 am Post subject: |
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| Ziggy wrote: | Yeah, no way anyone could've predicted missing 300+ games due to injury. I was only counting on Nash to give us 15-20 mpg. I expected Kobe to come out slow and hopefully become 75% of what he was pre-achilles injury. He showed progression after Byron reduced his minutes and gave him back to backs off. The Randle injury knocked the wind out of the entire fan base.
This was just an unreal season. I don't care what ESPN predicted unless they foresaw this amount of injuries. If the prediction was purely based on the roster going into the season, then obviously they were wrong. |
Except they were utterly godawful to start the season when relatively healthy (missing Swaggy is always addition by subtraction in my book). I'll admit to not thinking they would be quite that bad because I didn't think Kobe would be quite that bad. The real story is how massively they overachieved the previous season with more substantial injuries and worse players. It's probably why MDA is going to get another job. |
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yinoma2001
Retired Number
Joined: 19 Jun 2010
Posts: 119487
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 9:32 am Post subject: |
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| GoldenThroat wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | LakersNewEra wrote: | Hire some of those guys to the FO. Serious. Just like the Grizzlies hired Hollinger.
We seriously seem to be lacking in the analytical departement. The way the team was run the last few years is nothing short of pitiful.
If they constantly get it right and the Lakers FO gets it wrong all the time and especially considering its such a huge disprecancy in their predictons, these guys have the FO beat at quite simply, the reality.
Bottom line, hire the guys coming up with these predictions. They have a better grasp on reality nowadays, no question about it. A FO as lost as the Lakers FO could definitely use the help from these guys. |
I'm sorry but this makes no sense. What do you mean they get it right and the Lakers get it wrong?
The Lakers never come out and make predictions about how many games they're going to win.
Having a grasp on reality isn't hard. It just means think with your head, not with your heart. |
Like this?
| ringfinger wrote: | | I agree with you though. 35-40 has been, and still is, my season win projection for this team (taking injuries in to account). Meaning, if we have a ton of injuries, we could be slightly worse, if we don't have many injuries at all we could be slightly better, but most likely, with a reasonable amount of injuries, 35-39 wins. |
LOL at the retroactive "I knew we were going to be this bad" stuff. Predicting that Kobe & Nash wouldn't be able to stay healthy was reasonable, but we missed a ton of games to injury outside of those two, and played a D-League roster for nearly the last quarter of the season, and still nearly hit this prediction. |
Ironically ESPN got it closer than everyone here. If healthy (chuckle) I thought they could win 35 games. Sigh.
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From 2-10 to the Western Conference Finals |
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laker4life
Star Player
Joined: 26 Nov 2001
Posts: 7320
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 12:40 pm Post subject: |
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| thedude1977 wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | LakersNewEra wrote: | Hire some of those guys to the FO. Serious. Just like the Grizzlies hired Hollinger.
We seriously seem to be lacking in the analytical departement. The way the team was run the last few years is nothing short of pitiful.
If they constantly get it right and the Lakers FO gets it wrong all the time and especially considering its such a huge disprecancy in their predictons, these guys have the FO beat at quite simply, the reality.
Bottom line, hire the guys coming up with these predictions. They have a better grasp on reality nowadays, no question about it. A FO as lost as the Lakers FO could definitely use the help from these guys. |
I'm sorry but this makes no sense. What do you mean they get it right and the Lakers get it wrong?
The Lakers never come out and make predictions about how many games they're going to win.
Having a grasp on reality isn't hard. It just means think with your head, not with your heart. |
http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakers/la-sp-lakers-mitch-kupchak-20140927-story.html
While Kupchak doesn't make a prediction of the specific number of games the team anticipated winning last year, he did say that the team's "expectations are to win a championship," a feat that requires at least winning enough games to make the playoffs.
ESPN predicted we'd win 22 games. The GM of the Lakers said the team expected a championship. ESPN was right and the Lakers weren't. |
There is going to come a time that Mitch has to wake up from his laker's fantasy land statement of "expectation are to win a championship"
We are so far behind the eight ball that it is ridiculous and somewhat disingenuous to make these statements. |
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panamaniac
Franchise Player
Joined: 28 May 2011
Posts: 11239
Location: PTY
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 1:02 pm Post subject: |
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| I think many of us here have just had a hard time letting go of our pride the last few years. We expected better things from this team, there's nothing wrong with that. Reality is tho, we have been grounded by some ungodly circumstances coupled with some iffy FO decisions here and there. ESPN realized that and tried to pile on it, and some of us here had a tough time admitting it. That's ok, as a fan I'd rather aim high and fall than be a perennial loser like {insert pathetic NBA franchise here}. These last few years have been a by product of the inevitable cycle of all good things coming to an end. Now it's team time to reset and reload. And even as we continue to get better, ESPN will still probably slot us to miss the playoffs and we will prove them wrong and it'll be fun. |
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doughboy90650
Franchise Player
Joined: 20 Apr 2006
Posts: 15294
Location: Southern California
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 1:25 pm Post subject: |
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| hell, I thought we'd win around 30 games ....... just an ugly year. Hopefully next year will be a little better. Damn shame the draft doesn't have franchise changing players on a regular. In the 80s and 90s, you could literally pluck you a franchise type player within the first 7-10 picks. Now, you'll be happy to get 10 and 7 from the 10th pick. |
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greenfrog
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Joined: 02 Jan 2011
Posts: 36081
Location: 502 Bad Gateway
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 1:34 pm Post subject: |
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| If Byron was the coach the previous season you'd probably be looking at a 15-18 game win total. Only MDA's smoke & mirror job gets it to 27, so from that perspective you could say it wasn't that big a catastrophe this season. They essentially played to their talent level. |
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laker4life
Star Player
Joined: 26 Nov 2001
Posts: 7320
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 1:56 pm Post subject: |
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| greenfrog wrote: | | If Byron was the coach the previous season you'd probably be looking at a 15-18 game win total. Only MDA's smoke & mirror job gets it to 27, so from that perspective you could say it wasn't that big a catastrophe this season. They essentially played to their talent level. |
Pressures falls one hundred percent on the FO now. They already screwed up already on numerous situations but they would blame others.
Now it will fall on Jimbo with his three years deadline. |
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Treble Clef
Franchise Player
Joined: 20 Nov 2012
Posts: 23913
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 2:51 pm Post subject: |
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| Lakers2015 wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | greenfrog wrote: | | laker4life wrote: | | It looks like they were on point. Cannot be too critical if they are close to be on point. |
Wait until they have Kobe out the top 100 in their player rankings next season. Flame on! |
Oh my. His rankings this and last year ended up being quite generous given the fact he's only played 25% of the total games. |
Not really. Kobe is still a top 20 player.
Yes he shot terribly, but any 36 year old guard would if his coach ran him into the ground and there was no floor spacing to allow him to get better quality looks and the coach not unleashing the only true point guard until he went down. |
Byron is horrible for Kobe and a complete enabler / yes man for Kobe's wishes but what we saw from Kobe is all on Kobe. He played the way he is used to playing and I think that is exactly how he wanted to play. It was evident to most of us that Kobe can no longer play that way and it's no fault of his teammates. Kobe and Byron should have been wise enough to see it and tried to age more gracefully. |
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Frank The Tank
Starting Rotation
Joined: 25 Dec 2013
Posts: 113
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 5:10 pm Post subject: |
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| MJST wrote: | | We probably aren't if Kobe and Randle don't go down if Clarkson still has his emergence. But these things happen in basketball, and you need to role with it. |
We can't have it both ways- the injuries that devastated the team also gave Clarkson the space to emerge. If everybody was healthy, Clarkson wouldn't have gotten his chance. |
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ringfinger
Retired Number
Joined: 08 Oct 2013
Posts: 29418
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 6:25 pm Post subject: |
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| GoldenThroat wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | LakersNewEra wrote: | Hire some of those guys to the FO. Serious. Just like the Grizzlies hired Hollinger.
We seriously seem to be lacking in the analytical departement. The way the team was run the last few years is nothing short of pitiful.
If they constantly get it right and the Lakers FO gets it wrong all the time and especially considering its such a huge disprecancy in their predictons, these guys have the FO beat at quite simply, the reality.
Bottom line, hire the guys coming up with these predictions. They have a better grasp on reality nowadays, no question about it. A FO as lost as the Lakers FO could definitely use the help from these guys. |
I'm sorry but this makes no sense. What do you mean they get it right and the Lakers get it wrong?
The Lakers never come out and make predictions about how many games they're going to win.
Having a grasp on reality isn't hard. It just means think with your head, not with your heart. |
Like this?
| ringfinger wrote: | | I agree with you though. 35-40 has been, and still is, my season win projection for this team (taking injuries in to account). Meaning, if we have a ton of injuries, we could be slightly worse, if we don't have many injuries at all we could be slightly better, but most likely, with a reasonable amount of injuries, 35-39 wins. |
LOL at the retroactive "I knew we were going to be this bad" stuff. Predicting that Kobe & Nash wouldn't be able to stay healthy was reasonable, but we missed a ton of games to injury outside of those two, and played a D-League roster for nearly the last quarter of the season, and still nearly hit this prediction. |
Yes. Exactly like that. Thinking with your head doesn't mean you're always going to get it right. Like I said, not that hard.
You break it down, be realistic about things, and form a projection accordingly. I severely overestimated Kobe's efficiency, impact and health. I overestimated the team's ability to play defense. The rash of injuries and there's the discrepancy.
The poster I was replying to said the Lakers got it wrong so they should hire ESPN analysts. How exactly does that make any sense whatsoever? |
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LA_Lakers_Rule
Franchise Player
Joined: 23 Aug 2004
Posts: 19482
Location: The X-Files
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 8:36 pm Post subject: |
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| Megaton wrote: | | Kobe Jocker wrote: | Who cares, The author doesn't even get LA's issues right. he says they'll have a decent offense, but horrible defense, when O is their biggest worry.
Lakers will win 50+ games, and be one of the Top 5 defenses. Kobe will be a 25/5/5 player, and possible MVP. This team reminds me of the Net teams Scott had in NJ. Not alot of size, but gutty, and a star to lead. |
Oh man. I wish I was posting on the forum around this time.
Talk about reality hitting you like a ton of bricks. |
Wait, when you said you wished you were "around this time"..... In my curiosity as to when you joined LG I couldn't help noticing over 2K posts in two months? WOW I'm not sure I've seen that before, is Feb 18, 2015 REALLY when you joined LG?
_________________
Rule = win titles  
Good judgment comes from experience and a lot of that comes from bad judgment. - Will Rogers ...  |
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LA_Lakers_Rule
Franchise Player
Joined: 23 Aug 2004
Posts: 19482
Location: The X-Files
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 8:45 pm Post subject: |
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Well, if you think about it.... IF we had Kobe, Randle, Nash and Young all season long the record this year WOULD HAVE been MUCH BETTER!!!
Kobe is Kobe, Randle was really starting to come around, Nash would have shored up the back-court a whole lot and Young would have been a huge lift off the bench ALL of which were missing most if not the entire year.....
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Rule = win titles
Good judgment comes from experience and a lot of that comes from bad judgment. - Will Rogers ... |
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P.K.
Retired Number
Joined: 10 Jul 2003
Posts: 29726
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 8:52 pm Post subject: |
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| Jim99187 wrote: | | we were so sensitive to this prediction |
Not even close to how sensitive they were to ESPN rating Kobe #40
Next season will be interesting too.
Unless they pull off some major trade, the Lakers will probably still be rated last or 2nd to last in the West, and Kobe probably won't even be in the top 60 and may be a lot lower than that
_________________
LBJ + AD = More rings
Never argue with a fool - listeners can't tell you apart
Wilt's unstoppable fadeaway: www.youtube.com/watch?v=8O9MgNfcGJA
NPZ's Magic Johnson mix: www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8Qbo0WqvOI |
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ringfinger
Retired Number
Joined: 08 Oct 2013
Posts: 29418
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 8:55 pm Post subject: |
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| thedude1977 wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | LakersNewEra wrote: | Hire some of those guys to the FO. Serious. Just like the Grizzlies hired Hollinger.
We seriously seem to be lacking in the analytical departement. The way the team was run the last few years is nothing short of pitiful.
If they constantly get it right and the Lakers FO gets it wrong all the time and especially considering its such a huge disprecancy in their predictons, these guys have the FO beat at quite simply, the reality.
Bottom line, hire the guys coming up with these predictions. They have a better grasp on reality nowadays, no question about it. A FO as lost as the Lakers FO could definitely use the help from these guys. |
I'm sorry but this makes no sense. What do you mean they get it right and the Lakers get it wrong?
The Lakers never come out and make predictions about how many games they're going to win.
Having a grasp on reality isn't hard. It just means think with your head, not with your heart. |
http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakers/la-sp-lakers-mitch-kupchak-20140927-story.html
While Kupchak doesn't make a prediction of the specific number of games the team anticipated winning last year, he did say that the team's "expectations are to win a championship," a feat that requires at least winning enough games to make the playoffs.
ESPN predicted we'd win 22 games. The GM of the Lakers said the team expected a championship. ESPN was right and the Lakers weren't. |
Yes, I remember that. Have you ever heard a GM ever say that he expects to win 22 games? I haven't. Mitch does that all the time. They don't expect any imminent signings, etc.
In your best ability to read between the lines -- do you think Mitch was citing his prediction? Or posturing as GM of this team? |
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P.K.
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Joined: 10 Jul 2003
Posts: 29726
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 9:03 pm Post subject: |
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| ringfinger wrote: |
You break it down, be realistic about things, and form a projection accordingly. I severely overestimated Kobe's efficiency, impact and health. I overestimated the team's ability to play defense. The rash of injuries and there's the discrepancy.
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I expected them to win more games then they did..I even put $2k down in Vegas when the line was 30.5 wins.
I'd predicted Kobe wouldn't be able to play the whole season, but I did expect him to play about 1/2, and didn't think he'd look like my grandpa with a walker for the 1/2 season I expected him to play. I also expected Nash to be able to play 15 minutes or so per game for at least 1/2 the season. Adding those things together, 31 wins seemed easily doable considering there were 30 games against the East, and some pretty weak teams in the west. Did not believe for 1 second that they'd be able to win enough to make the playoffs.
oh, well..
_________________
LBJ + AD = More rings
Never argue with a fool - listeners can't tell you apart
Wilt's unstoppable fadeaway: www.youtube.com/watch?v=8O9MgNfcGJA
NPZ's Magic Johnson mix: www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8Qbo0WqvOI |
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ringfinger
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Joined: 08 Oct 2013
Posts: 29418
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 9:18 pm Post subject: |
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| P.K. wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: |
You break it down, be realistic about things, and form a projection accordingly. I severely overestimated Kobe's efficiency, impact and health. I overestimated the team's ability to play defense. The rash of injuries and there's the discrepancy.
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I expected them to win more games then they did..I even put $2k down in Vegas when the line was 30.5 wins.
I'd predicted Kobe wouldn't be able to play the whole season, but I did expect him to play about 1/2, and didn't think he'd look like my grandpa with a walker for the 1/2 season I expected him to play. I also expected Nash to be able to play 15 minutes or so per game for at least 1/2 the season. Adding those things together, 31 wins seemed easily doable considering there were 30 games against the East, and some pretty weak teams in the west. Did not believe for 1 second that they'd be able to win enough to make the playoffs.
oh, well.. |
Yep. I think I also may have underestimated MDA but the biggest factors for my 35-39 wins being off are similar to yours. Kobe looking a lot worse than even I thought (and I'm considered a hater round these parts), as many injuries as last year which I did not expect to continue, and our defense. I really thought that moving on from MDA to a more defensive minded coach would at least have put us around middle of pack or slightly worse but it was a lot worse than that. |
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Goldenwest
Star Player
Joined: 28 Nov 2009
Posts: 2802
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| Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 9:46 pm Post subject: |
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That was pure luck. No one could've predicted that Randle would go down. As well as Kobe missing more than half the season. Not to mention Nick Young or X.
Reasonably intact, that team still would've won a lot more than 21 games. |
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