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Vin
Star Player
Joined: 03 Jan 2013
Posts: 6006
Location: France
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 Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:38 pm Post subject: |
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23.7
42.7%
60 games
1422 points |
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ringfinger
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Joined: 08 Oct 2013
Posts: 29418
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:39 pm Post subject: |
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| automatic wrote: | 25.0 PPG
50 point high game
1250 total points 
Unfortunately I'm worried his total points won't be too high because he'll get carried away dominating and get hurt--hopefully nothing too serious |
You have him pegged to miss 32 games. That's pretty serious! |
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kobe209
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:43 pm Post subject: |
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| ringfinger wrote: | | Hoop_Knowledge wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | I think we need to add MPG estimates to this. Either some people are really bad at math, or, they're expecting offensive efficiency that is beyond what Kobe Bryant has ever done. |
Not sure who is predicting something that Kobe has never done before. Nobody is saying he is going to be averaging 30+ points per game anymore. |
You are. Kobe has never had a 25 PPG season playing less than 33 MPG. So I'm not sure whether you expect him to jack more shots, or become more efficient with age and post-achilles.
| Hoop_Knowledge wrote: | If Kobe can remain healthy (and that is a big if), I have seen nothing from his performance in the preseason that would preclude him from hitting the averages I am predicting. Even with his minutes in the low 30's, he currently has no solid second option, and is operating in an offense that has sets geared toward getting him good open looks from the perimeter. He will also be asked to handle the ball less (if his point guards remain healthy) and should be able to focus more on scoring from the post and defense (in theory).
If anything, I see his rebounds and assists dropping (both to the 4 range), but his scoring effectiveness will remain very good.
Total stats:
25.8 ppg (45.6 fg% in 32 to 33 mpg | 79 games)
34.6 3P%
84.1 FT%
4.1 rebounds
4.6 assists
1.0 spg
0.1 bpg |
I agree his ability to stay healthy will be a big if. I think it's almost impossible that Kobe plays 79 games. But let's put that aside.
I'm going to split the difference on your MPG projection and go with 32.5. For Kobe to score 25.8 PPG on only 32.5 MPG, he would have to score baskets at a rate he has only done ONCE in his career and that was the career 35.4 PPG season in 2005-2006 with the 81-point game outburst in it. Out of his 19 seasons, no other seasons saw him able to score that many points per minute played.
If I remove outlier years ... (1997/1998/1999, 2006, 2014), Kobe averages, for his career, 0.70 points per minute played.
25.8 PPG on 32.5 MPG is 0.78 points per minute played. That's a 12% increase in points for every minute he plays this year. Why are you expecting that kind of increase?
The only way he'll hit your numbers is if he is taking more shots more often for the time he is on the floor, or, he is making a higher percentage of them. What's going to happen, and why? |
kobe hasn't played less than 33mpg since his sophomore season. What's your point?
2010-2011 Kobe scored 25ppg playin 34mpg. Considering this team sucks and has no scoring options, Kobe will be around those numbers with ease.
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AuraStar
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Posts: 657
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:54 pm Post subject: Re: Predict Kobe's points |
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| ringfinger wrote: | | AuraStar wrote: | Predict Kobe Bryant's average per game, single game high, and total points scored for this season?
Here's mine:
23.7 points per game
52 points / single game high
1944 total points
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Are these numbers what you want? Or what you think?
You're projecting he won't miss a game. Why do you think he won't miss a single game?!!!? |
Good point. Even though Coach Scott has said he believes Kobe will play all 82 games this year--and Kobe's competitive nature is such that he'll want to be out there too--I could see a situation where the Black Mamba takes off (at least) the 1st or 2nd game of back-to-back games.
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ringfinger
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:15 pm Post subject: |
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| kobe209 wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | Hoop_Knowledge wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | I think we need to add MPG estimates to this. Either some people are really bad at math, or, they're expecting offensive efficiency that is beyond what Kobe Bryant has ever done. |
Not sure who is predicting something that Kobe has never done before. Nobody is saying he is going to be averaging 30+ points per game anymore. |
You are. Kobe has never had a 25 PPG season playing less than 33 MPG. So I'm not sure whether you expect him to jack more shots, or become more efficient with age and post-achilles.
| Hoop_Knowledge wrote: | If Kobe can remain healthy (and that is a big if), I have seen nothing from his performance in the preseason that would preclude him from hitting the averages I am predicting. Even with his minutes in the low 30's, he currently has no solid second option, and is operating in an offense that has sets geared toward getting him good open looks from the perimeter. He will also be asked to handle the ball less (if his point guards remain healthy) and should be able to focus more on scoring from the post and defense (in theory).
If anything, I see his rebounds and assists dropping (both to the 4 range), but his scoring effectiveness will remain very good.
Total stats:
25.8 ppg (45.6 fg% in 32 to 33 mpg | 79 games)
34.6 3P%
84.1 FT%
4.1 rebounds
4.6 assists
1.0 spg
0.1 bpg |
I agree his ability to stay healthy will be a big if. I think it's almost impossible that Kobe plays 79 games. But let's put that aside.
I'm going to split the difference on your MPG projection and go with 32.5. For Kobe to score 25.8 PPG on only 32.5 MPG, he would have to score baskets at a rate he has only done ONCE in his career and that was the career 35.4 PPG season in 2005-2006 with the 81-point game outburst in it. Out of his 19 seasons, no other seasons saw him able to score that many points per minute played.
If I remove outlier years ... (1997/1998/1999, 2006, 2014), Kobe averages, for his career, 0.70 points per minute played.
25.8 PPG on 32.5 MPG is 0.78 points per minute played. That's a 12% increase in points for every minute he plays this year. Why are you expecting that kind of increase?
The only way he'll hit your numbers is if he is taking more shots more often for the time he is on the floor, or, he is making a higher percentage of them. What's going to happen, and why? |
kobe hasn't played less than 33mpg since his sophomore season. What's your point? |
The only times Kobe has ever scored 25 PPG or more, he had to do it in more than 33 MPG. So for him to go for 25 in 33, the only way to do that will be to make more shots by taking more attempts, or, become more efficient than usual by making more shots on the same or fewer attempts.
| kobe209 wrote: | | 2010-2011 Kobe scored 25ppg playin 34mpg. Considering this team sucks and has no scoring options, Kobe will be around those numbers with ease. |
In 2010-2011, Kobe scored 25.8 PPG on 33.9 MPG. From a scoring per time spent on court perspective, that was Kobe's 3rd best year of all-time. I guess I'm just not sure why anyone would project Kobe to score as much if not more per minute as he did in his very best years with all things considered.
In his last healthy season, Kobe scored 27.3 PPG on 38.6 MPG which is essentially 0.707 points per minute played. Using that as a bench mark, if we lower his projected minutes to 33, he'd score 23.3 PPG. On 32 mins, that's 22.6 PPG. I'm cutting down the efficiency just a little bit because he's older, will need ramp up time over the season before he's "back" if he's back to pre-injury state at all, and I think the impact of his injury is still unclear. That's how I get to 20-22 PPG on 30-32 MPG.
So I'm just confused as to why we would assume, for projection purposes (not wishing purposes), that he'll score like he did in the very best of his years. |
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Hoop_Knowledge
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Joined: 12 Jul 2002
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:16 pm Post subject: |
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| ringfinger wrote: | | Hoop_Knowledge wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | I think we need to add MPG estimates to this. Either some people are really bad at math, or, they're expecting offensive efficiency that is beyond what Kobe Bryant has ever done. |
Not sure who is predicting something that Kobe has never done before. Nobody is saying he is going to be averaging 30+ points per game anymore. |
You are. Kobe has never had a 25 PPG season playing less than 33 MPG. (1) So I'm not sure whether you expect him to jack more shots, or become more efficient with age and post-achilles.
| Hoop_Knowledge wrote: | If Kobe can remain healthy (and that is a big if), I have seen nothing from his performance in the preseason that would preclude him from hitting the averages I am predicting. Even with his minutes in the low 30's, he currently has no solid second option, and is operating in an offense that has sets geared toward getting him good open looks from the perimeter. He will also be asked to handle the ball less (if his point guards remain healthy) and should be able to focus more on scoring from the post and defense (in theory).
If anything, I see his rebounds and assists dropping (both to the 4 range), but his scoring effectiveness will remain very good.
Total stats:
25.8 ppg (45.6 fg% in 32 to 33 mpg | 79 games)
34.6 3P%
84.1 FT%
4.1 rebounds
4.6 assists
1.0 spg
0.1 bpg |
I agree his ability to stay healthy will be a big if. (2) I think it's almost impossible that Kobe plays 79 games. But let's put that aside.
I'm going to split the difference on your MPG projection and go with 32.5. (3) For Kobe to score 25.8 PPG on only 32.5 MPG, he would have to score baskets at a rate he has only done ONCE in his career and that was the career 35.4 PPG season in 2005-2006 with the 81-point game outburst in it. Out of his 19 seasons, no other seasons saw him able to score that many points per minute played.
If I remove outlier years ... (1997/1998/1999, 2006, 2014), Kobe averages, for his career, 0.70 points per minute played.
(4) 25.8 PPG on 32.5 MPG is 0.78 points per minute played. That's a 12% increase in points for every minute he plays this year. Why are you expecting that kind of increase?
The only way he'll hit your numbers is if he is taking more shots more often for the time he is on the floor, or, he is making a higher percentage of them. What's going to happen, and why? |
1) Yes, I do. These are only predictions, but I do think he will not necessarily take/average more shots (I think he will be in the 19 to 21 shots per game range), but his shot taking frequency will increase to offset the lower minutes. As I have said previously, we still are not certain he will have a solid second option. We may have a rotating set of players who will fill this role; therefore, Kobe will need to be the constant (as far as offense is concerned). I also predict his fg% will remain within the normal range of his career average (44% to 46%).
2) So you think he will be injured at one or multiple points during the season. My prediction is based on my thinking of how he will alter his play in an effort to avoid putting his body in situations that may cause him injury. He will be extremely careful/cautious, more than he has at any point previously. For example, I believe he will drive less to the basket than he ever has and will focus more on efficiently mastering the mid range than ever before. I believe he will not be as active in the rebounds department to avoid the additional jumping activity that may put him in situations that could cause him injury like landing on another player's foot or coming down wrong. Little changes to his game, along with the strategic reduction in minutes, will go a long way to preserve the durability required to play the number of games I am predicting. I have him resting a few games, but if he can remain healthy, I am not even sure he will sit if he can play.
3) I see this as well; I think he will increase his shot frequency. A good example of this was his last two preseason games. He averaged in the 32 to 33 mpg range, along with an average of about 21 shots. This will put him, depending on his efficiency and ability to get fouls, in the range of 22 PPG to about 28 PPG. He will have a good chunk of games where he will score in the teens and he will have a good chunk of games where he will score in the 30's. I split the difference and over the course of a season believe he will average 25 to almost 26 PPG.
You won't see the usual 3 or 4 minutes of game-play without Kobe getting a shot attempt or free throws. I think he will definitely increase the frequency of attempts to offset the reduction in minutes to keep his PPG right at his career average.
4) Like I have mentioned before, we will need his offense (or him to remain actively engaged as an offensive threat) to remain competitive, and Kobe will oblige.
He may take slightly more shots, but I believe he will shoot more frequently (to offset the minutes reduction), all the while maintaining roughly his career FG% (in the range of 44% to 46%)...
Last edited by Hoop_Knowledge on Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:40 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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golaker
Star Player
Joined: 04 Mar 2010
Posts: 2557
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:39 pm Post subject: |
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I predict that those predicting Kobe will average between 20-22 ppg will be wrong and they should be banned once it's established that Kobe is averaging closer to his usual 25ppg, especially considering that they will literally have nothing here to talk about anymore, unless they stay on course all season long telling us all about how they're certain he's going to get injured and miss games at any moment.
Those posters are clearly not trolls!
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Omar Little
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Posts: 90307
Location: Formerly Known As 24
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 4:17 pm Post subject: |
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| golaker wrote: | I predict that those predicting Kobe will average between 20-22 ppg will be wrong and they should be banned once it's established that Kobe is averaging closer to his usual 25ppg, especially considering that they will literally have nothing here to talk about anymore, unless they stay on course all season long telling us all about how they're certain he's going to get injured and miss games at any moment.
Those posters are clearly not trolls! |
I predict that calling out people you disagree with and calling them trolls ahead of time will not help you stay healthy through the entire season, if ya know what i mean...
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venturalakersfan
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Location: The Gold Coast
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 4:19 pm Post subject: |
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Yes, they clearly aren't trolls.
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PICKnPOP
Star Player
Joined: 14 Jul 2014
Posts: 5393
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 4:31 pm Post subject: |
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He was my first pick in our fantasy draft (wade was my second). With that said I need a huge season from him.
30 ppg
6 rebounds
6 assist
45% fg
38% 3p
3 3pm
85%ft
3 steals
2 blocks
79 games
MVP
Most improved player
First player to win the finals MVP without making the playoffs
Defensive player of the year
If not my fantasy team has no chance 😭 |
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pio2u
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Posts: 54628
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 4:44 pm Post subject: |
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| 25 points tomorrow |
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Aussiesuede
Franchise Player
Joined: 27 Jul 2005
Posts: 10964
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 4:58 pm Post subject: |
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Considering the backcourt injury situation, I expect him to avg 27ppg for the first month, then gradually work his way to 24ppg from by Christmas. He'll stay at 24ppg from Christmas til the end of February, then the team get's a case of unexpected playoff fever and his minutes creep up by a couple a game and finishes the season @ 25ppg overall.
He'll hit his season high of 46 points during their visit to MSG going up against Phil & Fish.
He'll play in 76 games, with the off nights due to rest as opposed to injury.
He'll teabag Dwight for old times sake during their 3rd meeting of the season after Harden lays out a yellow brick road to the basket in that "I can't even be bothered to guard a 90 year old gimp" style of defense he's mastered.
There will only be a sum total of 2 Mamba stares on the season, and 6 "Mama There Goes That Man" moments.
He'll be the number one vote getter to the ASG, which he'll net another ASG MVP, irking Barkley into another mini-fued.
He'll nail only 3 game winners for the season and LG will go ballistic with half excited and the other half complaining about his holding back the young "stars in waiting" yet again. The Lakers will ink him to yet another mid season extension for a sum total of $4.59, and LG will lose it's collective mind about his Happy Meal Salary preventing the Lakers from signing the top 5 lottery picks in next seasons draft. He'll decline to build a guest house in his back yard for Kevin Durant and get blamed when Durant instead signs with the Wizards.
There is a recap of you 2014-15 Kobe's (aka Lakers) season. 
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The_Dynasty24
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Joined: 12 Jun 2013
Posts: 2840
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 5:00 pm Post subject: |
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| PICKnPOP wrote: | He was my first pick in our fantasy draft (wade was my second). With that said I need a huge season from him.
30 ppg
6 rebounds
6 assist
45% fg
38% 3p
3 3pm
85%ft
3 steals
2 blocks
79 games
MVP
Most improved player
First player to win the finals MVP without making the playoffs
Defensive player of the year
If not my fantasy team has no chance 😭 |
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automatic
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Posts: 103
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 5:19 pm Post subject: |
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| ringfinger wrote: | | automatic wrote: | 25.0 PPG
50 point high game
1250 total points
Unfortunately I'm worried his total points won't be too high because he'll get carried away dominating and get hurt--hopefully nothing too serious |
You have him pegged to miss 32 games. That's pretty serious! |
I'm going for the "reverse-jinx."  Actually I have him skipping the back end of a few back-to-backs and having a few nagging things that take him out for a few games here and there. |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 5:44 pm Post subject: |
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Give me 65-70 healthy games and I'll be happy.
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Dave20
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 5:44 pm Post subject: |
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24/6/4 43% FG 30% 3PT
42 season high |
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madsen35
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BruceLeroy1985
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:03 pm Post subject: |
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| Anyone predicting 24 points or under are just clueless. |
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Treble Clef
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Joined: 20 Nov 2012
Posts: 23924
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 8:38 pm Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | Only stats kobe has cared about are rings. Sadly he will stay at 5 this year. |
I think he likes his numbers too, especially in a year like this one where people are loudly doubting his ability to get them. |
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hollandog
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Posts: 27
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 8:47 pm Post subject: |
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20.8ppt
43%fg
36%3pt
5.3reb
3.8 asst
1 stl
34mpg |
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lakerfan4life
Star Player
Joined: 12 Jan 2005
Posts: 4921
Location: Sactown California
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:20 pm Post subject: |
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23.5 ppg
4 assist
4 rebounds
44 percent shooting
70 games
_________________
14 till 17 |
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FreakofNature
Star Player
Joined: 28 Sep 2007
Posts: 9187
Location: Maui ...
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:35 pm Post subject: |
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.........
24.5 PPG
5.7 RPG
5.1 APG
35 MPG
1911 total points in 78 games.... 45% FG, 85% FT |
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GonzagaAlum
Star Player
Joined: 09 Dec 2005
Posts: 3021
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:37 pm Post subject: |
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21.4 ppg
42%
Season High 48
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Nightwalker
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Joined: 09 May 2013
Posts: 2739
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:39 pm Post subject: |
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26 ppg (44 fg% in 34 mpg)
5 assist
4 rebounds
51 single game high (vs. New York Knicks)
74 games |
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ReaListik
Star Player
Joined: 08 Jun 2008
Posts: 6573
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 11:14 pm Post subject: |
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| Nightwalker wrote: | 26 ppg (44 fg% in 34 mpg)
5 assist
4 rebounds
51 single game high (vs. New York Knicks)
74 games |
I could see this.
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