Predict Kobe's points
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AuraStar
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 11:37 am    Post subject: Predict Kobe's points

Predict Kobe Bryant's average per game, single game high, and total points scored for this season?


Here's mine:

23.7 points per game

52 points / single game high

1944 total points


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defense
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 11:39 am    Post subject:

24 ppg
39 season high
don't feel like doing total points for season
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silkwilkes
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 11:39 am    Post subject:

27,5 pts per game
High of 64 pts in a game

Plays all 82... so 2255 points for the season.
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:13 pm    Post subject:

20-22 PPG but if I have to pick one number .... 21.5 PPG.

But it depends on how many games he plays also. The more he plays, the lower the number (IMO).

I'm at 31 MPG.


Last edited by ringfinger on Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:27 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Hoop_Knowledge
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:16 pm    Post subject:

25.8 ppg (45.6 fg% in 32.4 mpg)

51 single game high (vs. New Orleans)

79 games

2040 total points
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venturalakersfan
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:21 pm    Post subject:

24 ppg
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:25 pm    Post subject:

I think we need to add MPG estimates to this. Either some people are really bad at math, or, they're expecting offensive efficiency that is beyond what Kobe Bryant has ever done.
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venturalakersfan
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:25 pm    Post subject:

36 mpg
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KobeDunk
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:30 pm    Post subject:

25 pts per game
48 game high
1750 ttl points (will play roughly 70 games. Byron will probably rest him on some back to backs)

35 MIN per game ave
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anpherknee
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:34 pm    Post subject:

http://i.imgur.com/MkbJFP3.jpg
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EddieJonesss
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:37 pm    Post subject:

23 PPG
42 game high
1610 points (assuming 70 games played at the 23 ppg average and 12 DNPs)
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:40 pm    Post subject:

Only stats kobe has cared about are rings. Sadly he will stay at 5 this year.
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DSF_27
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:40 pm    Post subject:

Better quesiton would be the number of games (over/under).

I think around 65 would probably be right.
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Hoop_Knowledge
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:46 pm    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
I think we need to add MPG estimates to this. Either some people are really bad at math, or, they're expecting offensive efficiency that is beyond what Kobe Bryant has ever done.


Not sure who is predicting something that Kobe has never done before. Nobody is saying he is going to be averaging 30+ points per game anymore.

If Kobe can remain healthy (and that is a big if), I have seen nothing from his performance in the preseason that would preclude him from hitting the averages I am predicting. Even with his minutes in the low 30's, he currently has no solid second option, and is operating in an offense that has sets geared toward getting him good open looks from the perimeter. He will also be asked to handle the ball less (if his point guards remain healthy) and should be able to focus more on scoring from the post and defense (in theory).

If anything, I see his rebounds and assists dropping (both to the 4 range), but his scoring effectiveness will remain very good.

Total stats:
25.8 ppg (45.6 fg% in 32 to 33 mpg | 79 games)
34.6 3P%
84.1 FT%
4.1 rebounds
4.6 assists
1.0 spg
0.1 bpg
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Who Takes The Blame
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:53 pm    Post subject:

20-23 ppg

5.3 Rebs

4.6 ast

45%
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BigBallerBrand
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:04 pm    Post subject:

27.5 PPG on 40% FG. Book it. Welcome to 2005 Lakers
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J.C. Smith
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:16 pm    Post subject:

21 points on 44% shooting. I don't think he'll get heavy enough minutes to score much higher.
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Lakers 4 eva
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:23 pm    Post subject:

24 pts on 43%
4 rebs
4 asst
3 TO's
35 mpg

He'll have his highest scoring game (39) against the Knicks at the Garden with the Lakers losing.


Last edited by Lakers 4 eva on Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:14 pm; edited 2 times in total
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dmorans1
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:30 pm    Post subject:

50 ppg
105 in one game
4100 in total

Book It.
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Lakers95
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:46 pm    Post subject:

25 PPG

Highest scoring game: 45-ish.

Total points: ~1750 total points.
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Firelord_Rag
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:49 pm    Post subject:

At least 25 ppg normalized per 36 mins, for Mr. Bryant

Last edited by Firelord_Rag on Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:15 pm; edited 1 time in total
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:06 pm    Post subject:

Hoop_Knowledge wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
I think we need to add MPG estimates to this. Either some people are really bad at math, or, they're expecting offensive efficiency that is beyond what Kobe Bryant has ever done.


Not sure who is predicting something that Kobe has never done before. Nobody is saying he is going to be averaging 30+ points per game anymore.


You are. Kobe has never had a 25 PPG season playing less than 33 MPG. So I'm not sure whether you expect him to jack more shots, or become more efficient with age and post-achilles.

Hoop_Knowledge wrote:
If Kobe can remain healthy (and that is a big if), I have seen nothing from his performance in the preseason that would preclude him from hitting the averages I am predicting. Even with his minutes in the low 30's, he currently has no solid second option, and is operating in an offense that has sets geared toward getting him good open looks from the perimeter. He will also be asked to handle the ball less (if his point guards remain healthy) and should be able to focus more on scoring from the post and defense (in theory).

If anything, I see his rebounds and assists dropping (both to the 4 range), but his scoring effectiveness will remain very good.

Total stats:
25.8 ppg (45.6 fg% in 32 to 33 mpg | 79 games)
34.6 3P%
84.1 FT%
4.1 rebounds
4.6 assists
1.0 spg
0.1 bpg


I agree his ability to stay healthy will be a big if. I think it's almost impossible that Kobe plays 79 games. But let's put that aside.

I'm going to split the difference on your MPG projection and go with 32.5. For Kobe to score 25.8 PPG on only 32.5 MPG, he would have to score baskets at a rate he has only done ONCE in his career and that was the career 35.4 PPG season in 2005-2006 with the 81-point game outburst in it. Out of his 19 seasons, no other seasons saw him able to score that many points per minute played.

If I remove outlier years ... (1997/1998/1999, 2006, 2014), Kobe averages, for his career, 0.70 points per minute played.

25.8 PPG on 32.5 MPG is 0.78 points per minute played. That's a 12% increase in points for every minute he plays this year. Why are you expecting that kind of increase?

The only way he'll hit your numbers is if he is taking more shots more often for the time he is on the floor, or, he is making a higher percentage of them. What's going to happen, and why?
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:24 pm    Post subject:

25 5 5.
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:28 pm    Post subject: Re: Predict Kobe's points

AuraStar wrote:
Predict Kobe Bryant's average per game, single game high, and total points scored for this season?


Here's mine:

23.7 points per game

52 points / single game high

1944 total points



Are these numbers what you want? Or what you think?

You're projecting he won't miss a game. Why do you think he won't miss a single game?!!!?
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:35 pm    Post subject:

25.0 PPG
50 point high game
1250 total points

Unfortunately I'm worried his total points won't be too high because he'll get carried away dominating and get hurt--hopefully nothing too serious
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