Study: Shorter NBA Refs Call More Fouls
Review of 4,000 Games Links Height of Referee Crews to Whistles Per Game; Vantage Point or Napoleon Complex?
NBA referees have been scrutinized over the years for every imaginable bias. Now, though, new research has whistled another trait that may shape how refs call games: their height.
As it turns out, the league’s shorter referee crews call more fouls than its taller officiating teams, according to a Journal of Sports Economics study by Paul Gift and Ryan Rodenberg that examined more than 4,000 regular-season games over four recent NBA seasons.
The study builds on a body of studies that has emerged since the 2007 Tim Donaghy officiating scandal. Before the researchers could do anything, though, they had to calculate each referee’s height. This was trickier than it sounds. The heights of players are meticulously recorded, of course, but referee height isn’t public information.
To gather their data, the authors interviewed a former NBA referee for his recollections, reviewed clips of game film and examined photographs to measure officials when they were standing next to players with known heights.
Then they split NBA crews into three tiers: 6 feet and under, 6 feet to 6 feet 3 and 6 feet 3 and taller. What they found was that each additional inch per crew resulted in .017 fewer personal fouls per 48 minutes. That means the shortest crew, at 8 2/3 inches shorter than the tallest crew, calls .147 fouls more per game, or a 3.6% increase from the league average.
So what could possibly explain this discrepancy? The authors have two theories. The first is that referee vantage points differ by their heights. It’s possible that shorter referee crews are actually calling better games than their taller peers.
The other theory is more speculative—and more exciting to think about. They hypothesize it could have something to do with a so-called Napoleon complex in professional referees. That, they say, is grounds for future research with a different focus: technical fouls. “One’s height vantage point should play no role in technical foul calls,” they write. “But aggressive, controlling behavior via the Napoleon complex may.”
Posted: Mon Nov 03, 2014 6:20 pm Post subject: Re: Study: Shorter NBA refs call more fouls
Basketball Fan wrote:
I'm curious why they started this type of study though
I'm more curious why they would even publish such "results". The difference is so small as to be essentially nil. Someone had too much time on their hands.
Er, what? Aside from fact that the statistical difference is almost nil, the numbers show that it is the tall crews, not the short crews, that were the outliers. Short crews and average crews are almost identical, but tall crews call fewer fouls. But I guess that isn't "exciting to think about."
Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2014 1:15 am Post subject: Re: Study: Shorter NBA refs call more fouls
saacman5033 wrote:
Basketball Fan wrote:
I'm curious why they started this type of study though
I'm more curious why they would even publish such "results". The difference is so small as to be essentially nil. Someone had too much time on their hands.
Do you understand the concept of statistical significance? They wouldn't publish these results without a significant difference to show that the null hypothesis ("height doesn't matter") wasn't valid.
Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2014 6:06 am Post subject: Re: Study: Shorter NBA refs call more fouls
kray28_ wrote:
Do you understand the concept of statistical significance? They wouldn't publish these results without a significant difference to show that the null hypothesis ("height doesn't matter") wasn't valid.
It's not a question of statistical significance. We can assume that the numbers at least marginally establish statistical significance.
Instead, the problem is that the effect, even if statistically significant, is trivial. Look at the numbers quoted in the article. (The study itself is not available for free online.)
Personal fouls per player per 48 minutes:
Short crew 4.13
Average crew 4.09
Tall crew 4.03
That's it? So a short crew will call an extra foul every ten games compared to a tall crew and every twenty-five games compared to an average crew? (As I pointed out earlier, it is actually the tall crews that are the outliers.)
When you have an effect that is so small (statistically significant or not), it would seem more reasonable to assume that we are looking at a mechanical effect instead of a personality difference. In other words, it is more likely that taller refs have a harder time seeing a certain type of foul. If there was the personality difference that the authors were looking for, then (1) short crews wouldn't be so close to average crews, and (2) the effect would be more pronounced than one foul every 25 games.
Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2014 9:05 am Post subject: Re: Study: Shorter NBA refs call more fouls
kray28_ wrote:
saacman5033 wrote:
Basketball Fan wrote:
I'm curious why they started this type of study though
I'm more curious why they would even publish such "results". The difference is so small as to be essentially nil. Someone had too much time on their hands.
Do you understand the concept of statistical significance? They wouldn't publish these results without a significant difference to show that the null hypothesis ("height doesn't matter") wasn't valid.
My college statistics recollections are a bit rusty, but yes I do. But it should be obvious to even someone with no understanding of statistical significance that this data just isn't statistically significant.
The bright flashing clue: They guessed at heights! What do you suppose the margin of error is on wild guesses? 2%, 5%, more? So even without factoring in population and sample size, you've got a margin of error much larger than the supposed difference.
scientific explanation is that air in higher altitudes is thinner... so it's harder to blow the whistle. _________________ "Now, if life is coffee, then the jobs, money & position in society are the cups. They are just tools to hold & contain life, but the quality of life doesn't change. Sometimes, by concentrating only on the cup, we fail to enjoy the coffee in it."
Here's a statistic for you. NBA refs suck no matter what height they are. They call fouls they don't actually see. They show obvious bias toward "star" players. They often call make up calls for their terrible calls. They are extremely inconsistent. They make calls based on perceived reputation. They rarely make the obvious calls like traveling or carrying. I don't expect perfection but they are just bad.
Would be interesting if they opened up the NBA Replay Center to allow them to overturn bad calls from the refs on the court. They would have to be quick enough (maybe only on obvious bad calls) to minimize game delays.
Of course, the objectivity of those in the replay center would certainly come into question. Instead, maybe just "zap" the ref with an electronic prod whenever they uncover a bad call.
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