Analysis of the 4th Quarter in Denver w/ videos

[Lakersneuron]

Yesterday I posted a link in which Kobe tells his teammates to get out of his way in the 4th quarter. Today, I came across a post by reddit user dichloroethane, which analyzes Kobe's 4th quarter possessions to assess if Kobe shot the Lakers out of the game against the Nuggets.

Mods, the only reason I am posting this in the lounge is because I thought it deserved more visibility given the negative post I put forth yesterday. Feel free to merge.

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Let’s take a look at the Lakers 13 half court possession in the fourth quarter last night.

Possession 1 (

): The Lakers went the first 3:15 of the fourth without a field goal before Kobe returned to the game. They go to him on the first possession. He catches in the high post. No double comes, and he gets the easy bucket. Kobe 1

Possession 2 (

): The Lakers go back to Kobe in the post again. No double comes and Kobe draws the foul. Kobe 2

Possession 3 (

): Here the Lakers decide to isolate Wayne Ellington. It doesn’t work. Hill catches in the high post and nobody moves. Lin has taken himself out of the play and Kobe goes to post up again. It’s an ugly shot. This play is just bad for all five men on the court. Dumpster Fire 1, No help 1, Haters 1

Possession 4 (

): Kobe isolates again. This time he draws a triple team. He does not force up a shot but instead kicks the ball out to a wide open Lin for a spot up attempt. Kobe 3 However, Lin hesitates and loses his rhythm. After a missed shot, the Lakers get another wide open 3 in the scramble but Ellington lays another brick. No help 2

Possession 5 (

): The first thing you see is Jordan Hill’s weak ass pick that forces Kobe to establish post position all on his own. Because of this, he has to catch way higher than how the play was designed. Kobe makes a move in the post and the double comes. He stares at Lin who should probably cut to that open space in the corner while his man is helping. Upon seeing that the cut isn’t coming, Kobe jacks up an ugly jumper. No help 3

Possession 6 (

): So the Lakers finally try something else here. Oh, who am I kidding, it’s another Kobe isolation. He beats his man on the dribble but can’t finish over Mozgov. Taking on a guy like Mozgov at the rim when he’s already in position head on is a losing proposition. Swaggy is wide open and in the his line of sight. All five Nuggets players are surrounding him. Pass Kobe Pass! Instead he forces up a miss. Jordan Hill makes a great effort play to get the offensive rebound and give it back to Kobe for the easy bucket. Haters 2

Possession 7 (

): Kobe sets a great screen to free up Lin. Hill mistimes his roll, which allows Lawson to recover while Mozgov shuts down the passing lane. Lin resets and calls for a second pick. Lawson and Mozgov just shut down the pick and roll here stone cold. A wide open Wes is irrelevant because they completely seal the passing lane as well. Kobe throws his arms up in disgust. No help 4

Possession 8 (

): Kobe dribbles the ball up the court, backs his man down, and scores. Kobe 4

Possession 9 (

): After the Lakers defense generates an easy bucket in transition, it’s back to Kobe’s iso-ball. Here we see an ill-advised chuck early in the shot clock. Haters 3

Possession 10 (

): Kobe post up draws the foul, which leads to a Kobe post up and an ugly shot. Haters 4

Possession 11 (

): The Lakers run their second pick and roll. This time, they opt to not use Hill to set the pick. Kobe sets a good pick to get Lin free, makes a nice move into space, and then finds the open man instead of challenging Mozgov head on again. Kobe 5

Possession 12 (

): Kobe beats his man on the dribble again but Wes Johnson is late on his cut to the corner. His eyes are on the corner and there’s a huge passing lane but there’s nobody there. Kobe is forced to challenge Mozgov at the rim again. 36 years isn’t going to win in that situation. No help 5

Possession 13 (

): With under a minute left, both teams know that this is going to be Kobe going one on one for a mid range turn-around jumper. The entire defense keys in on him but it wouldn’t matter if there was weak side motion or not. Hero or zero time, he misses the shot. Haters 5

Results: Kobe justifying himself, his teammates failing to support him, and him chucking away the game all came in tied at 5 a piece. No wonder nobody can agree

Discussion: After looking at the raw data, you see that it’s split fairly evenly. A third of the time Kobe creates for himself or others. A third of the time the Lakers look like four D-league players around him, and a third of the time Kobe plays ill-advised hero ball.
Kobe is quite impressive in that he can still consistently open up a defense at 36. He beat his man off the dribble every time he tried to drive and consistently collapses the defense around him. The modern post up game for guards usually involves one to two screens to create space for the catch but Kobe is able to establish similar court position without any help. It’s astounding that the Lakers utilize him so much on the right block without coming up with better ways to let him catch deeper. He also sets better picks for the other guards than anyone else in the Lakers finishing five. I suppose I need to cut back my ESPN because I was quite surprised to find out that Kobe is the best off ball player out there for the Lakers in terms of motion to open space. I’m also surprised that his eyes are staring down the spot his man is supposed to be cutting and not tunnel visioning the basket on about half of his wasted possessions. That being said, regardless of blame, here’s the problem. The Lakers ran the same play (Kobe posting up in isolation) 85% of the time for an entire quarter. It generated 0.45 points per possession (5 points in the fourth quarter on 11 possessions). Lin historically scores about 0.85 points per possession when coming off the screen. For perspective, giving Lin the green light to chuck off the wheel 11 times in a quarter likely gives you about 9 points and a win so long as the defense doesn’t key in on you running the same play every time. That, regardless of what the play is, probably has a lot to do with the terrible efficiency as much as anything.

Source: http://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/2nc7sf/did_kobe_shoot_the_lakers_out_of_the_4th_quarter/
_________________
"I don’t give a [expletive] what you say. If I go out there and miss game winners, and people say, 'Kobe choked, or Kobe is seven for whatever in pressure situations.' Well, [expletive] you. Because I don’t play for your [expletive] approval."

[Bladers]

please stop

[Lakersneuron]

why? its a lakers forum. isn't discussion the point?

The post isn't critical. It is a play by play breakdown. It isn't threatening or divisive. In fact, the conclusion supports both positions regarding Kobe's play that is dividing Lakerland. That is why I found it to be interesting and worth sharing.
_________________
"I don’t give a [expletive] what you say. If I go out there and miss game winners, and people say, 'Kobe choked, or Kobe is seven for whatever in pressure situations.' Well, [expletive] you. Because I don’t play for your [expletive] approval."

[mad55557777]

good analysis, i read an artical saying kobe shoots twice as much when lakers are down by 20, so that means kobe didn't shoot out the lakers out of the game, and he was trying to shoot the lakers back in the game but often fail to do so.
so we need to stop blaming Kobe for the reason the lakers suck, not many teams come back from 20 pt deficits

[DALAKERSRULE]

This is actually a very good breakdown.

not to mention that Kobe was probably fouled on some of the shots or when he took it to the rim, do you not think that guards like James Harden would have gotten the call on some of those drives ?/


how come no one is talking about the offensive rebound we gave up, that resulted in a 4 point play , that is what really put us in trouble.
_________________
LAKER FAN 4-LIFE!!!

[maddprophet]

good information. definitely clarifies a few things.
_________________
Spark the ism, my expertism, is lyracism, my flow will take you over like I was hypnotism...so where's the lighter, to start the cypher....

[meows a lot]

there is one thing important to consider is - we don't know if really kobe instructed his teammates not to cut when posting up - that kobe might prefer the 1on1 to shoot it.

there are plenty of times where lin is wide open or another player is, calling for ball and kobe sees them, but striaght up turn around jumper anyway.

if the case really is players not cutting to help - then shame on them for not trying, but then again can you blame them, since kobe is going to shoot anyway? moral of story is - kobe's style of play demoralizes the teammates - so in the end they just end up standing around because that's what is perceived to be what kobe wants- even if that may not be true.
_________________
“We do have a lot in common.
The same air, the same Earth, the same sky.
Maybe if we started looking at
what's the same instead of
always looking at what's different,

...well, who knows?”

- Meowth

[CaliRyderX]

[appwrangler]

Great analysis. In such a close game it is clear that several things made a crucial difference. Kobe doesn't iso too much, they can win the game. But also if the team doesn't fall into a trance and stand around and watch him, they can win the game.

As several of the players said "Kobe is Kobe", but the basketball players need to be basketball players. They need to stay actively engaged when Kobe is in a potential iso situation so that they can be ready to contribute.

[Spec]

[lakez34]

Great post and interesting outcome. I watched ONLY the 4th quarter of that game, and usually I defend Kobe's shooting, but in that game, I just couldn't. I hadn't seen the prior 3 quarters though, but the 4th, there were shots I just didn't think he should be attempting. With that breakdown, it shows that I likely was biased in my thought thinking of only those where he shouldn't have shot/no help vs those where he should've dumped it off when formulating my opinion. Good analysis and breakout.

[ffsrofll333]

great post, thanks for sharing!

[laker4life]

good analysis.

Send it to one of the assistant coaches or an assistant of the assistant coaches.

[12]

Lack of talent... Lack of IQ... I'm surprised when people say Lin is one of the smartest players because he went to Harvard. During games, all I see him do is turn it over and stand in corners. When he cuts, he gets the ball, a smart player would know to keep cutting. When he dribbles and tries to create, he often turns it over, a smart player would know to stop turning it over.

Then we have the likes of Ellington, Wes, Clarkson and Price who have very unreliable jump shots. As a matter of fact, put Lin in that group too. You can't win in this league with unreliable jump shooters.

Yesterday, GT asked a question and the thread was locked so I couldnt respond. He asked if the other guys are so ineffective that Kobe is forced to take the load on himself? To answer that question, history has proven that Kobe is a closer, and those other guys are bonafide scrubs. After watching this breakdown, I can see why Kobe doesn't trust these guys. I wouldn't trust them either. With the game on the line, I'll go one on 3 before giving these losers the ball.

Kobe is in a shoot out, unfortunately all he has are butterknives.

[22]

^^^ Agreed

The OP did a good breakdown.

People want to pile on Kobe because it's low hanging fruit. Simple as that. 4th quarter against the Nuggets shows it's a shared responsibility.

[meows a lot]

[trunkz08]

[meows a lot]

[trunkz08]

And speaking of un-reliable, Kobe is shooting 37% if anybody should be shooting less, it's Kobe.

[22]

A lot of you have more confidence in Lin than he has in himself.

[meows a lot]

[12]

[22]

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[12]