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Kobe2Clark Star Player
Joined: 15 Feb 2004 Posts: 6047
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Posted: Thu Nov 27, 2014 10:58 pm Post subject: A reality check for folks who blame Byron or the players |
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The Lakers are favored to win for the FIRST time all season vs. Minnesota. In other words, Vegas thinks our roster is a joke and the 3-12 record is overachievement _________________ "My thirst for domination is fed only by the game. I refuse to get distracted by outside forces." - Kobe Bryant |
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GoldenThroat Moderator
Joined: 25 Jul 2005 Posts: 37474
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Posted: Thu Nov 27, 2014 11:17 pm Post subject: |
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The Vegas line for Laker victories was 31.5 games. In other words, a little better than 3 wins in every 8 games. We're at a pace for a little less than half of that. In order to "overachieve" and win 32, we'd have to go 29-38 the rest of the way. http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/story.cfm/story/1596205
We are not overachieving according to Vegas. What happened was that this roster appeared to be halfway passable, and then the team demonstrated very early on that it would be worse than they were expected to be prior to the season. |
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Unstable Starting Rotation
Joined: 11 Jul 2014 Posts: 147
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Posted: Thu Nov 27, 2014 11:27 pm Post subject: |
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kobe2clark - you've gotta learn to trust them vegas guys - they've been in the business of gaming for ages. Trust them to work out their statistics and sums.
I think our team is due for a win too - let's hope it's tonight. I'd like Lakers to get to 0.5 if possible (but that might be overly optimistic according to the guys from Vegas - who cares, I'm naturally bias |
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Treble Clef Franchise Player
Joined: 20 Nov 2012 Posts: 23745
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Posted: Thu Nov 27, 2014 11:44 pm Post subject: |
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They were the underdog in every game but that's far from being a prediction that they'd be 0-15. Statistically speaking, underdogs are still expected to win at least some of the time. |
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ringfinger Retired Number
Joined: 08 Oct 2013 Posts: 29418
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Posted: Thu Nov 27, 2014 11:49 pm Post subject: |
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Also, just because we were favored to lose in all of our previous games doesn't mean it would stand that Vegas "thinks" we'd lose all those games.
For instance, who do you favor if we play the Spurs? Spurs right? Now, if we play them 100 times do you pick the Spurs all 100 times then? No, on any individual game you'd expect us to lose but over the course of a hundred you'd expect we'd win a couple. |
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ringfinger Retired Number
Joined: 08 Oct 2013 Posts: 29418
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Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2014 12:00 am Post subject: |
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Treble Clef wrote: | They were the underdog in every game but that's far from being a prediction that they'd be 0-15. Statistically speaking, underdogs are still expected to win at least some of the time. |
Yep. I'm going to oversimplify here but imagine we are favored to lose by 90% in every game. Predicting your record after 100 games would be 10-90. Not 0-100. That's over simplifying it but hopefully shows why even if you're FAVORED to lose every game, that doesn't mean they predict you will definitely lose every game. |
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Goldenwest Star Player
Joined: 28 Nov 2009 Posts: 2801
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Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2014 12:06 am Post subject: |
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GoldenThroat wrote: | The Vegas line for Laker victories was 31.5 games. In other words, a little better than 3 wins in every 8 games. We're at a pace for a little less than half of that. In order to "overachieve" and win 32, we'd have to go 29-38 the rest of the way. http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/story.cfm/story/1596205
We are not overachieving according to Vegas. What happened was that this roster appeared to be halfway passable, and then the team demonstrated very early on that it would be worse than they were expected to be prior to the season. |
Nash and Randle going down for the season, as well as Lin performing more inconsistently than was previously thought has I think a lot to do with the drop in expectations, its certainly not Kobe. |
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fiendishoc Star Player
Joined: 23 Jun 2005 Posts: 8488 Location: The (real) short corner
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Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2014 12:16 am Post subject: |
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Not sure what the OP's point is here. Vegas takes into account the players, coach, schedule, everything. |
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Kobe2Clark Star Player
Joined: 15 Feb 2004 Posts: 6047
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Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2014 12:40 am Post subject: |
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fiendishoc wrote: | Not sure what the OP's point is here. Vegas takes into account the players, coach, schedule, everything. |
I would bet that no team except maybe the Sixers have been underdogs every game.
My point is that our roster is not up to par and we've had a pretty tough schedule on top of that _________________ "My thirst for domination is fed only by the game. I refuse to get distracted by outside forces." - Kobe Bryant |
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fiendishoc Star Player
Joined: 23 Jun 2005 Posts: 8488 Location: The (real) short corner
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Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2014 1:14 am Post subject: |
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But you can't say just that Vegas doesn't favor them only because of the roster and/or schedule. You could as easily say Vegas doesn't favor them because of the coach. The reality is that they take all these things into account.
And you also can't use their record to say they are under or overachieving. Like ringfinger is saying, if all opponents were the same and had a 55% chance of beating them, you would expect them to win 45 games rather than zero after 100 games. |
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kobe209 Starting Rotation
Joined: 10 Dec 2012 Posts: 922
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Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2014 1:32 am Post subject: |
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Anyone blaming the coach for this teams crappy performance is just too lazy to give blame to all the people that should be given blame lol This team sucks, plain and simple. I highly doubt the front office had any real expectations for this year besides developing Randle and working Kobe back into game shape. The Lakers made moves for the future, while sacrificing the present. Scott can not realistically be properly assessed as a coach until after next season at the earliest. Give the guy a break. Its barely 10 games in during his 1st year with one of the worst rosters in the nba lol _________________
IG: wywsabaywb |
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Hydro21 Star Player
Joined: 20 May 2005 Posts: 2392 Location: NYC
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Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2014 2:20 am Post subject: |
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the team is just bad.. theres no need to blame anyone especially not Scott..
just gotta give mitch time to work his magic in replenishing the roster |
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Vin Star Player
Joined: 03 Jan 2013 Posts: 6005 Location: France
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Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2014 4:08 am Post subject: Re: A reality check for folks who blame Byron or the players |
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Kobe2Clark wrote: | In other words, Vegas thinks the 3-12 record is overachievement |
Nope they don't.
And btw there is lacking talent, and there is playing bad. Most teams play better basketball than we do regardless of their roster.
It's not much of a reality check either, we all know this team is terrible and even if I want them to tank I still would like to see them display some sound basketball in their loss. If that makes any sense lol. |
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Mustaine Starting Rotation
Joined: 01 Feb 2012 Posts: 289 Location: Portugal
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Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2014 4:45 am Post subject: |
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Mitch is one of the worst GM in the league. He's the real responsible for what is happening. Even when we were good, he sucked. Ok, he traded KW for Gasol, but... thank you Jerry. |
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deal Franchise Player
Joined: 17 Aug 2008 Posts: 14900 Location: Earth
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Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2014 5:41 am Post subject: |
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Goldenwest wrote: | GoldenThroat wrote: | The Vegas line for Laker victories was 31.5 games. In other words, a little better than 3 wins in every 8 games. We're at a pace for a little less than half of that. In order to "overachieve" and win 32, we'd have to go 29-38 the rest of the way. http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/story.cfm/story/1596205
We are not overachieving according to Vegas. What happened was that this roster appeared to be halfway passable, and then the team demonstrated very early on that it would be worse than they were expected to be prior to the season. |
Nash and Randle going down for the season, as well as Lin performing more inconsistently than was previously thought has I think a lot to do with the drop in expectations, its certainly not Kobe. |
I think the fact the Lakers have no real starting Center or SF along with the fact that its the first time many of these guys plays together and under a new system; does not help either.... _________________ Lakers need to build a freaking team ! |
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nashftw Starting Rotation
Joined: 19 Jul 2014 Posts: 177
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Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2014 6:01 am Post subject: |
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yeah, the team is really bad, can't blame Scott for that and for being dealt a bad hand, but.... if he were a bit more flexible and adaptable, the team could be a little bit better than bad, and still won't be good enough |
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japanesebeef1 Star Player
Joined: 11 Jul 2005 Posts: 1473 Location: Colton, CA
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Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2014 8:09 am Post subject: |
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Vegas? Reality check? They only mirror betting patterns. What this shows is that even betters have figured out the Laker challenges this year. |
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venturalakersfan Retired Number
Joined: 14 Apr 2001 Posts: 144432 Location: The Gold Coast
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Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2014 9:01 am Post subject: |
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Mustaine wrote: | Mitch is one of the worst GM in the league. He's the real responsible for what is happening. Even when we were good, he sucked. Ok, he traded KW for Gasol, but... thank you Jerry. |
Always good to hear from the clueless crowd. _________________ RIP mom. 11-21-1933 to 6-14-2023. |
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ringfinger Retired Number
Joined: 08 Oct 2013 Posts: 29418
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Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2014 9:06 am Post subject: |
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japanesebeef1 wrote: | Vegas? Reality check? They only mirror betting patterns. What this shows is that even betters have figured out the Laker challenges this year. |
Although, I will say, the lines will typically be closer to reality. Reality is usually closer to those with money on the line instead of pride =) |
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