Mitch and Byron Do Not agree on Analytics - (Update 7/17: Lakers open Analytics liaison to the Coach - p.8)
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vanexelent
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:29 am    Post subject:

the association wrote:
Voices wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Voices wrote:
lakersken80 wrote:
We don't need no stinking analytics.....










this season


Players with talent win, not analytics. B ball has not changed, just look at the teams that win, L James and Cle are good because they have great talent. Let's see how good the Bulls are without their best player. And they still have talent, but not the superstar talent needed to win the title.


You do realize Lebron, when in Miami, heavily used analytics to change his game. He took a lot of his unnecessary shots and was shown better spots on the floor to utilize his skills.

Also, "analytics" to me isn't some mystical mathematical formula. It's the business of information and learning how to interpret data in CONJUNCTION with normal things like traditional scouting. Of course you need superstar talent to win; I doubt people in the "analytics" field disagree with you.


Oh please, stop with analytics helped LJ, LJ has been a 50% plus shooter his whole career, astounding stats, not to mention his rebounding and assist totals that are way above average.

Just look at the teams that have won titles, they have the best players. Do you really think analytics was part of MJ and Magic's game? Do you think Bird and McHale used analytics?

The beautiful thing about b ball is that teamwork with great talented players just comes naturally, great players have great instincts for the game.

The college game is different, coaching and analytics can have an effect on the "team" because the talent and experience levels are not at the NBA level.

Are you saying that RW uses analytics? He is a basketball machine and is the reason that OKC is still in the running for the playoffs.


2003, 2004, 2011 and 2014 (and perhaps even 2012) are recent examples of how misguided you are when you assert that, and I'm paraphrasing here, "the team with the best talent always prevails when it comes to title match-ups". The mental aspects of the game, which are often amplified by one's relative interest or disinterest in advanced analytics (as far as I'm concerned), are still very, very important factors in these discussions.

I also suspect there's a lot more going on behind the scenes, from a preparedness standpoint, with someone like RW than you might think ... and I completely disagree with the indirect assertion that Bird, Magic, McHale and MJ wouldn't have been voracious consumers of modern AA if it was available during their collective era. I think all four of those guys (incl. Jordan) achieved far beyond what their raw materials might have otherwise suggested was possible ...




I think the silver lining here is all championship teams have good to great players (mostly great) but more importantly have a quality coach with a clearly defined and executed system. Whether that's based heavily on statistical indicators or just great fundamental basketball minds, if the players don't buy into the system, them none of it works.

Eric Spolstra didn't have to tell Chris Bosh that the stats indicate he sucked posting up on the right side, all he had to do was design plays that limited Bosh posting up on the right side.

Now since set plays are often disrupted by a breakdown in movement or an opposing team's defensive success, having individually elite players on your team, who can create and improvise in a dominating fashion, is probably going to be the difference maker. Teams that have both great systems and elite individual players are usually the ones who we find in the Finals year after year.
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GoldenThroat
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:44 am    Post subject:

You either win with talent OR analytics, but it's not possible that teams use analytics to get the most out of their talent, and when they get the most out of great talent, they win championships. If you use analytics, you have to win with bad players or else the analytics are useless.

God, this is the dumbest argument.
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Bard207
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:57 am    Post subject:

A quick glimpse at W/L records of the past with notable acquisitions cited:

________________
1978 - 1979
47 - 35

Drafted Magic Johnson in Summer 1979

1979 - 1980
60 - 22

1980 - 1981
54 - 28

1981 - 1982
57 - 25

Drafted James Worthy in Summer 1982

1982 - 1983
58 - 24

1983 - 1984
54 - 28

1984 - 1985
62 - 20

1985 - 1986
62 - 20

1986 - 1987
65 - 17

1987 - 1988
62 - 20

1988 - 1989
57 - 25

1989 - 1990
63 - 19

1990 - 1991
58 - 24

1991 - 1992
43 - 39

1992 - 1993
39 - 43

1993 - 1994
33 - 49

1994 - 1995
48 - 34

1995 - 1996
53 - 29

Signed Shaq and acquired the rights to Kobe in Summer 1996

1996 - 1997
56 - 26

1997 - 1998
61 - 21

1998 - 1999
31 - 19

1999 - 2000
67 - 15

2000 - 2001
56 - 26

2001 - 2002
58 - 24

2002 - 2003
50 - 32

2003 - 2004
56 - 26

2004 - 2005
34 - 48

2005 - 21006
45 - 37

2006 - 2007
42 - 40

2007 - 2008
Traded for Pau Gasol
57 - 25

2008 - 2009
65 - 17

2009 - 2010
57 - 25

2010 - 2011
57 - 25

2011 - 2012
41 - 25

2012 - 2013
45 - 37

2013 - 2014
27 - 55

________________

Going forward...

It is possible that the Lakers will get the #1 Draft pick in the upcoming draft. Even if they do, that player will be coming to a team relatively bare in talent and nothing like the 47 - 35 team that Magic joined.


There are still pick obligations to be fulfilled with Phoenix and Orlando, so it will be difficult to have another high pick to duplicate the drafting of James Worthy a few years after drafting Magic Johnson.


Things have changed with the CBA, so signing the equivalent of another dominant player like Shaq in his mid 20's will be much much more difficult.


The eligibility requirements for being drafted have changed.
Having to be out of High School for one year before being drafted gives the rest of the league the ability to scrutinize players in college or international play.

Technology has also changed and Youtube is now a decade old with videos of High School players available for all. Being able to steal a march on the rest of the league by getting another Kobe in the middle of the Draft will be quite difficult.

Duplicating the Summer of 1996 will be nearly impossible to do.



The CBA has changed and shorter contracts will make it less likely that a team will have to make a desperation move and do a Salary Dump of another Pau Gasol.


The large contracts dropping off over the next several years coupled with a rising Salary Cap will make it difficult for the Lakers to use their financial muscle in the near future and spend well into Luxury Tax levels as they did in the past.



After reviewing the above, it is apparent to me that the future will be quite difficult compared to the past and that FO needs to use Everything except the Squeal in regards to improving the team.

The hesitancy to fully plunge in and explore analytics is a mystery to me.


Last edited by Bard207 on Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:44 pm; edited 1 time in total
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vanexelent
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:14 am    Post subject:

Quote:
The hesitancy to fully plunge in and explore analytics is a mystery to me.


Well, if you don't have the talent to execute the system you want in place, then it would be a waste of money and resources, no? The current players on or roster aren't for the long term, thus any attempt to bring in a coach, who would enact a distinct system, would seem futile, especially considering the need for a worse record.
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:25 am    Post subject:

Quote:
The hesitancy to fully plunge in and explore analytics is a mystery to me.


I don't mind them not fully plunging in and surrendering every personnel or coaching decision to an app someone created at MIT, but being openly hostile and dismissive of it is another matter. It's very hard to get a read on what Mitch thinks. Is he just "coming around" to it because that's the thing to say and you're immediately branded an idiot if you don't? They did hire an analytics believer in MDA...
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:31 am    Post subject:

vanexelent wrote:
Quote:
The hesitancy to fully plunge in and explore analytics is a mystery to me.


Well, if you don't have the talent to execute the system you want in place, then it would be a waste of money and resources, no? The current players on or roster aren't for the long term, thus any attempt to bring in a coach, who would enact a distinct system, would seem futile, especially considering the need for a worse record.


We were going to invest in a full fledged analytics team but then that money went towards bidding for Boozer.
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Bard207
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:33 am    Post subject:

vanexelent wrote:
Quote:
The hesitancy to fully plunge in and explore analytics is a mystery to me.


Well, if you don't have the talent to execute the system you want in place, then it would be a waste of money and resources, no? The current players on or roster aren't for the long term, thus any attempt to bring in a coach, who would enact a distinct system, would seem futile, especially considering the need for a worse record.



You are looking at analytics as solely for game preparation.


Basketball Analytics – 2013

Quote:

Basketball analytics tools, which are used off court as well as live during the game, can bring small competitive advantages that can shift games and even playoff series. How can an advanced scouting system help to better prepare an NBA player to defend his opponent? How basketball analytics helps teams become not only more effective but also more efficient? What is the role of sport analytics when making trading decisions and team buildup? And what is the next new initiatives in basketball analytics?


The basketball people on that panel were:

Kevin Pritchard - Pacers
RC Buford - Spurs
Mike Zarren - Celtics
Stan Van Gundy - Pistons



The Future of the Game

Quote:
An all-star cast of seasoned SSAC veterans discuss how analytics has changed the way they view major sports and where we will see changes next. Topics include improvements to rules and formats (e.g., ways to speed up the game), changes to the way coaches and teams need to think about building and employing rosters, what new research needs to be done and what will be the buzz in sports in five years.


RC Buford - Spurs

_____________________

From the previous page in this thread...

LarryCoon wrote:

RC is actually an old-school coach (Kansas, LA Clippers), who uses the input from analytics in player evaluation, but relies a lot on his basketball IQ. But he & Pop use every advantage they can get with the squads they have, and THAT'S where they really put it to use. They were one of the first to use SportsVU (I already shared my funny story about that) and everything else. Their findings permeate directly into drills the team runs at practice. It has permeated the franchise.
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:36 am    Post subject:

Lot of saying the front office is late on analytics. Not so, Jim and Chaz used beer pong for years on players decisions. I'd call that a form of probability analysis and impact assessment and qualifies for analytics.
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Tony Anapolis
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:38 am    Post subject:

Analytics says Kobe Bryant is one of the most overrated players in NBA history. I bet when Abbott was watching grantland and Kobe was talking about analytics being less important in the future as the game changes, Abbott was getting pissed, since it is the only way these no talent analyst can get a job.

All it will take is another dominant post player like a Shaq to come in and we are right back to the post style of player, I give it another three to ten years.

You guys really want to build like the Atlanta Hawks, they are not winning the ship? Do you guys remember the Oakland A's, they went cheap, and still never won anything. The only thing that scares me about the NBA is San Antonio won the finals last year without playing any great defense. Miami actually shot the lights out , but SA shot 60%.

I'm all for taking advantage of analytics, but when people start using it as the end all be all, like in the case of Monroe, I just think these people become too obsessive, and in the longrun the analytics guys never usually pick the winner.


I can't bring myself to say Bryant is overrated, because analytics is not taking into consideration his confidence, leadership, and heart, which I think is unparalleled in this age.
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GoldenThroat
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:41 am    Post subject:

vanexelent wrote:
Quote:
The hesitancy to fully plunge in and explore analytics is a mystery to me.


Well, if you don't have the talent to execute the system you want in place, then it would be a waste of money and resources, no? The current players on or roster aren't for the long term, thus any attempt to bring in a coach, who would enact a distinct system, would seem futile, especially considering the need for a worse record.


None of the current players on the roster are here for the long term? We entered this season under the premise that every single player on this roster was going to be gone? Not even Julius Randle or Jordan Clarkson? Or Nick Young, who's signed for the next 4 years? There's no value in systemic continuity? Julius Randle & Jordan Clarkson being in Year 1 of a system in 2016 has the same value as them being in Year 3?

I'm sorry, but that's just not the case. Furthermore, I'm fairly fluent in terms of the specifics of "systems"...which is an overused and extremely vague term that's thrown around way too often...and I can't think of a single system that requires good talent to implement. Of course how effective it will be certainly hinges on the talent that you have, but there's no reason that we can't implement any system, and at least have some organizational continuity in place when our talent level improves.

"We suck, so what's the point?" is a terrible way to run an organization.
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GoldenThroat
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:45 am    Post subject:

Tony Anapolis wrote:
Analytics says Kobe Bryant is one of the most overrated players in NBA history.


That's not true. Hacks like Abbott have always picked and chosen bits of information to support a pre-conceived notion, but the reality is that analytics have always shown his enormous value in terms of getting his team closer to victories. He's one of the top Win Share/VORP/OBPM guys in NBA history.

http://www.82games.com/pelton13.htm
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lukewaltonsdad
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:49 am    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
vanexelent wrote:
Quote:
The hesitancy to fully plunge in and explore analytics is a mystery to me.


Well, if you don't have the talent to execute the system you want in place, then it would be a waste of money and resources, no? The current players on or roster aren't for the long term, thus any attempt to bring in a coach, who would enact a distinct system, would seem futile, especially considering the need for a worse record.


None of the current players on the roster are here for the long term? We entered this season under the premise that every single player on this roster was going to be gone? Not even Julius Randle or Jordan Clarkson? Or Nick Young, who's signed for the next 4 years? There's no value in systemic continuity? Julius Randle & Jordan Clarkson being in Year 1 of a system in 2016 has the same value as them being in Year 3?

I'm sorry, but that's just not the case. Furthermore, I'm fairly fluent in terms of the specifics of "systems"...which is an overused and extremely vague term that's thrown around way too often...and I can't think of a single system that requires good talent to implement. Of course how effective it will be certainly hinges on the talent that you have, but there's no reason that we can't implement any system, and at least have some organizational continuity in place when our talent level improves.

"We suck, so what's the point?" is a terrible way to run an organization.


Agreed. I'd cite the Celtics as an example. They took a risk and brought in a rookie coach with a roster that was being torn down and filled with young rookies with potential upside to improve the team. The first year was awful but he was laying the groundwork. Over the course of the off-season, Brad studied what was successful in the NBA; the SAS system. He called it 'space and pace.' The roster continued to be torn down during the season with the departure of Rondo and Green but you seen the Celtics improving incrementally. Presently, their in contention for the 8th spot in the East.
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Tony Anapolis
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:59 am    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
Tony Anapolis wrote:
Analytics says Kobe Bryant is one of the most overrated players in NBA history.


That's not true. Hacks like Abbott have always picked and chosen bits of information to support a pre-conceived notion, but the reality is that analytics have always shown his enormous value in terms of getting his team closer to victories. He's one of the top Win Share/VORP/OBPM guys in NBA history.

http://www.82games.com/pelton13.htm


That's what it is Golden Throat, when you have top analytics guys like Abbot and Hollinger discounting everything this champion has done throughout his career, it will make you question the system they are using.

That said, you have to try and peer into the future the best you can and analytics helps that.
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:07 pm    Post subject:

Tony Anapolis wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
Tony Anapolis wrote:
Analytics says Kobe Bryant is one of the most overrated players in NBA history.


That's not true. Hacks like Abbott have always picked and chosen bits of information to support a pre-conceived notion, but the reality is that analytics have always shown his enormous value in terms of getting his team closer to victories. He's one of the top Win Share/VORP/OBPM guys in NBA history.

http://www.82games.com/pelton13.htm


That's what it is Golden Throat, when you have top analytics guys like Abbot and Hollinger discounting everything this champion has done throughout his career, it will make you question the system they are using.

That said, you have to try and peer into the future the best you can and analytics helps that.


If people manipulate and cherry pick data to buttress their agenda, it speaks poorly of them. Not the data.
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:13 pm    Post subject:

How much "systemic continuity" does a team need exactly? Phil won in his first season here, which a system nobody fully understood, and players who weren't very familiar with each other. The Spurs almost immediately became contenders once they had Duncan. The Celtics went from last place to a championship by adding two HoFers one summer. I just don't buy that what happens in Year 1 of a rebuild has a significant effect on Year 4 or 5. The Lakers singing Sedale Threatt for example did not have a direct impact in them getting Shaq 4 years later or winning a title with him eventually.
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HumanVictoryCigar
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:16 pm    Post subject:

it's a pretty brutal article, regardless of the "talent" we have. The offense is horrible and you have the below besides the B. Scott comments to start the year about his lack of enthusiasm about 3 pointers and Jeremy Lin saying he hasn't seen much use of analytics.
------------------
Indeed, the Lakers are 29th in 3-pointers made this season, attempting fewer per game than three of the past four NBA champions
---
The Lakers rank third in percentage of shots taken from midrange, widely regarded as the least efficient area on the court, and in the bottom five in corner 3-pointers, among the most efficient.
---
Scott said he receives analytics reports on a weekly basis.

"It sits on my desk and I look at it for a little while," he said. "Then I take it to Mark Madsen and we'll talk about it for a minute, and then I say 'OK,' and I take it from there."

Scott was then asked if those meetings have resulted in any major changes this season.

"No."
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:19 pm    Post subject:

Tony Anapolis wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
Tony Anapolis wrote:
Analytics says Kobe Bryant is one of the most overrated players in NBA history.


That's not true. Hacks like Abbott have always picked and chosen bits of information to support a pre-conceived notion, but the reality is that analytics have always shown his enormous value in terms of getting his team closer to victories. He's one of the top Win Share/VORP/OBPM guys in NBA history.

http://www.82games.com/pelton13.htm


That's what it is Golden Throat, when you have top analytics guys like Abbot and Hollinger discounting everything this champion has done throughout his career, it will make you question the system they are using.

That said, you have to try and peer into the future the best you can and analytics helps that.


Even Burning Man didn't have strawmen like this.
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:23 pm    Post subject:

HumanVictoryCigar wrote:
it's a pretty brutal article, regardless of the "talent" we have. The offense is horrible and you have the below besides the B. Scott comments to start the year about his lack of enthusiasm about 3 pointers and Jeremy Lin saying he hasn't seen much use of analytics.
------------------
Indeed, the Lakers are 29th in 3-pointers made this season, attempting fewer per game than three of the past four NBA champions
---
The Lakers rank third in percentage of shots taken from midrange, widely regarded as the least efficient area on the court, and in the bottom five in corner 3-pointers, among the most efficient.
---
Scott said he receives analytics reports on a weekly basis.

"It sits on my desk and I look at it for a little while," he said. "Then I take it to Mark Madsen and we'll talk about it for a minute, and then I say 'OK,' and I take it from there."

Scott was then asked if those meetings have resulted in any major changes this season.

"No."


It is a little bizarre of Byron to posit himself as so resistant to change. Does he think his sub .300 record over his past 4 coaching seasons vindicates his obstinance?
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:30 pm    Post subject:

greenfrog wrote:
How much "systemic continuity" does a team need exactly? Phil won in his first season here, which a system nobody fully understood, and players who weren't very familiar with each other. The Spurs almost immediately became contenders once they had Duncan. The Celtics went from last place to a championship by adding two HoFers. I just don't buy that what happens in Year 1 of a rebuild has a significant effect on Year 4 or 5. The Lakers singing Sedale Threatt for example did not have a direct impact in them getting Shaq for 4 years later or winning a title with him eventually.


What does a signing like Sedale Threatt have to do with systemic continuity? That's personnel.

Doc Rivers was in his 4th year in Boston when they won the title. The scenario that you put forth, where a bad team acquires talent and integrates them in to an already implemented system and succeeds with it, is exactly what I'm talking about.

The Spurs were a team that won 55+ games in 3 consecutive years, then Robinson got hurt and they tanked, and they added an instant all-star to a team that was coached by someone who'd been part of the organization as a coach or in the FO (with a brief hiatus) since 1988.

The Lakers issue prior to Phil wasn't systemic, it was personalities. This is evidenced by the fact that they Lakers were actually less efficient on the offensive end than they were the year before. Yet Phil got some super-sized egos to play together, and their defensive efficiency improved enormously.

OF COURSE talent is the most important thing in the NBA, but continuity absolutely has value. The team that won the title last year was able to do so as a function of it.
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:34 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
Tony Anapolis wrote:
Analytics says Kobe Bryant is one of the most overrated players in NBA history.


That's not true. Hacks like Abbott have always picked and chosen bits of information to support a pre-conceived notion, but the reality is that analytics have always shown his enormous value in terms of getting his team closer to victories. He's one of the top Win Share/VORP/OBPM guys in NBA history.

http://www.82games.com/pelton13.htm


I think the contrarian view (relative to yours) is not that Kobe has been shown through AA to be absolutely overrated (i.e., that he just plain sucks), but rather that he's been shown through AA to be overrated relative to his peer group in the Top 10 (i.e., that he's inferior vs. MJ, Magic, etc.). I don't endorse the former or the latter (especially in the extreme) points of view, but I thought it important to try to understand where you're coming from with this post. The Pelton article from early 2005 (10 years ago) also didn't feel compelling to me.

I briefly reviewed some of the core advanced statistics you alluded to and I don't see meaningful support for your position. Win Shares per 48 minutes, he's almost 50th all-time. VORP, he's 15th. OBPM, he's 28th. What am I missing?


Last edited by the association on Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:38 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:35 pm    Post subject:

pjiddy wrote:
HumanVictoryCigar wrote:
it's a pretty brutal article, regardless of the "talent" we have. The offense is horrible and you have the below besides the B. Scott comments to start the year about his lack of enthusiasm about 3 pointers and Jeremy Lin saying he hasn't seen much use of analytics.
------------------
Indeed, the Lakers are 29th in 3-pointers made this season, attempting fewer per game than three of the past four NBA champions
---
The Lakers rank third in percentage of shots taken from midrange, widely regarded as the least efficient area on the court, and in the bottom five in corner 3-pointers, among the most efficient.
---
Scott said he receives analytics reports on a weekly basis.

"It sits on my desk and I look at it for a little while," he said. "Then I take it to Mark Madsen and we'll talk about it for a minute, and then I say 'OK,' and I take it from there."

Scott was then asked if those meetings have resulted in any major changes this season.

"No."


It is a little bizarre of Byron to posit himself as so resistant to change. Does he think his sub .300 record over his past 4 coaching seasons vindicates his obstinance?


I actually get what B. Scott is doing, he's catering to Kobe. Probably the most damaging comment in the article is from Lin who came here from Houston. IF the Lakers did have some internal, hidden system nobody has seen or heard of, it would have showed up with the players in what the coaches are telling them to do but... nope, nothing...

Perhaps this is another stealth recruiting tool the Lakers are using? Trying to get someone like Rondo? The message is pretty clear, we're not micromanaging your every move, unlike your current situation...
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:37 pm    Post subject:

In regards to Kobe and the future...

82 (games) X 48 (minutes) = 3936 minutes

If the reasonable expectation is that Kobe will play 65 games and average 30 MPG next season, then...

65 (games) X 30 (minutes) = 1950 minutes


That leaves almost 2000 minutes that Kobe isn't playing and will be covered by someone else. Perhaps Kobe comes back for the 2016 - 2017 season and perhaps he doesn't.

Earlier in this discussion thread, I listed some of the key acquisitions for the Lakers in recent decades and noted that it will be difficult for the FO to have so many favorable situations going forward as happened in the past.

From April 2011:

Hoops 2.0: Inside the NBA’s Data-Driven Revolution

Quote:
Just one problem: Kopp had to convince NBA teams that it’s a program worth joining. Without team participation, there’d be no data to collect and the effort would be fruitless. And besides, teams have had access to play-by-play data for decades: simple, textual rundowns that efficiently map how a game played out. A brief scan of a one-page printout as you’re running into the locker room at halftime, and a knowledgeable coach can determine intermediate-level metrics like assist-to-field-goal ratio and turnovers-per-minute on the fly.

“You don’t want to come in and say, ‘Look at all this cool technology. Look at all this data it can spit out,'” Kopp says. “People think that’s cool, but teams had one of two reactions. One is, ‘That’s great, but I don’t understand what it means.’ The other was, ‘What am I going to do with that?'”

Kopp set out to approach those teams he felt would be most receptive to new technology: “It’s not like we offered this to all 30 teams.” Those charter members — guinea pigs? — were the Houston Rockets, billionaire Mark Cuban’s Dallas Mavericks, the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder.



Quote:
In mid-October, opening night for the 2010-11 season was still 11 days away when Pat Sund, the team’s basketball operations coordinator and son of Atlanta Hawks general manager Rick Sund, found himself at the Northern California Symposium on Statistics and Operations Research in Sports. While there, taking in all the sports geekery one could expect to encounter at tiny Menlo College, he bumped into Dean Oliver, a former director of quantitative analysis for the NBA’s Denver Nuggets, who’s since become ESPN’s first-ever director of production analytics.

Oliver talked up the system to Sund, who took the info back to Schlenk and Kirk Lacob at Warriors HQ. Within weeks, the Warriors staff had contacted Stats and a technician was flown the 1,850 miles to scope out SportVU’s potential West Coast testing ground.



Some might think that it is just coincidence that the Warriors, Mavericks, Thunder, Spurs and Rocket have done reasonably well in recent years. Others might think that analytics has helped them.



Homegrown Travis Schlenk finds his way around the NBA


Quote:
Schlenk works with several scouts and front-office people, including general manager Bob Myers, to build Golden State’s roster. That staff rejuvenated a franchise, supported by one of the NBA’s most loyal fan bases, with a series of moves.

They do it with frequent-flyer miles, hours in the gym and film study. They also are part of the growing number of NBA teams relying on advanced statistics and analytics to judge players.

“He’s always married technology with the craft, a mixture of art and science,” said Mitch Germann, a former executive with the Sacramento Kings who met Schlenk at Wichita State. “Travis represents that new breed of NBA executive in basketball operations, using big data to make decisions.”

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vanexelent
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:37 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
vanexelent wrote:
Quote:
The hesitancy to fully plunge in and explore analytics is a mystery to me.


Well, if you don't have the talent to execute the system you want in place, then it would be a waste of money and resources, no? The current players on or roster aren't for the long term, thus any attempt to bring in a coach, who would enact a distinct system, would seem futile, especially considering the need for a worse record.


None of the current players on the roster are here for the long term? We entered this season under the premise that every single player on this roster was going to be gone? Not even Julius Randle or Jordan Clarkson? Or Nick Young, who's signed for the next 4 years? There's no value in systemic continuity? Julius Randle & Jordan Clarkson being in Year 1 of a system in 2016 has the same value as them being in Year 3?

I'm sorry, but that's just not the case. Furthermore, I'm fairly fluent in terms of the specifics of "systems"...which is an overused and extremely vague term that's thrown around way too often...and I can't think of a single system that requires good talent to implement. Of course how effective it will be certainly hinges on the talent that you have, but there's no reason that we can't implement any system, and at least have some organizational continuity in place when our talent level improves.

"We suck, so what's the point?" is a terrible way to run an organization.


Randle, Clackson, nor Younge will be the center of any team that's to compete for a title. Having role players in place, running an unproven system and just waiting to implant "Elite Player X" here, doesn't seem like a good model.

As someone pointed out above, all it took for the Celtics and Heat to win a title was to get 2 All-Stars to join their current All-Star. The role players were then built around them.

Same with PHil's 2nd time around in LA. The team he inherited was a work-in-progress, but at least had it's core start player to build around. They added Gasol (another All-Star) and go to 3-straight Finals.

So, a system ran well, without 2 All-Stars meant 1st round exit from playoffs. A system ran well with 2 All-Stars meant 3 straight Finals.
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Tony Anapolis
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:42 pm    Post subject:

the association wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
Tony Anapolis wrote:
Analytics says Kobe Bryant is one of the most overrated players in NBA history.


That's not true. Hacks like Abbott have always picked and chosen bits of information to support a pre-conceived notion, but the reality is that analytics have always shown his enormous value in terms of getting his team closer to victories. He's one of the top Win Share/VORP/OBPM guys in NBA history.

http://www.82games.com/pelton13.htm


I think the contrarian view (relative to yours) is not that Kobe has been shown through AA to be absolutely overrated (i.e., that he just plain sucks), but rather that he's been shown through AA to be overrated relative to his peer group in the Top 10 (i.e., that he's inferior vs. MJ, Magic, etc.). I don't endorse the former or the latter (especially in the extreme) points of view, but I thought it important to try to understand where you're coming from with this post. The Pelton article from early 2005 (10 years ago) also didn't feel compelling to me.

I briefly reviewed some of the core advanced statistics you alluded to and I don't see meaningful support for your position. Win Shares per 48 minutes, he's almost 50th all-time. VORP, he's 15th. OBPM, he's 28th. What am I missing?


Exactly, it is hard for any analytics dude to say Kobe is a top 10 player of all time. Only people who say he is top 5 or 6 are the ones who played the game, and don't study analytics.
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greenfrog
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:42 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
How much "systemic continuity" does a team need exactly? Phil won in his first season here, which a system nobody fully understood, and players who weren't very familiar with each other. The Spurs almost immediately became contenders once they had Duncan. The Celtics went from last place to a championship by adding two HoFers. I just don't buy that what happens in Year 1 of a rebuild has a significant effect on Year 4 or 5. The Lakers singing Sedale Threatt for example did not have a direct impact in them getting Shaq for 4 years later or winning a title with him eventually.


What does a signing like Sedale Threatt have to do with systemic continuity? That's personnel.

Doc Rivers was in his 4th year in Boston when they won the title. The scenario that you put forth, where a bad team acquires talent and integrates them in to an already implemented system and succeeds with it, is exactly what I'm talking about.

The Spurs were a team that won 55+ games in 3 consecutive years, then Robinson got hurt and they tanked, and they added an instant all-star to a team that was coached by someone who'd been part of the organization as a coach or in the FO (with a brief hiatus) since 1988.

The Lakers issue prior to Phil wasn't systemic, it was personalities. This is evidenced by the fact that they Lakers were actually less efficient on the offensive end than they were the year before. Yet Phil got some super-sized egos to play together, and their defensive efficiency improved enormously.

OF COURSE talent is the most important thing in the NBA, but continuity absolutely has value. The team that won the title last year was able to do so as a function of it.


So what Boston and Doc experienced in those years in the cellar had a direct correlation to them winning a championship? The Utah Jazz were the poster children for system continuity and they never won a championship or were even a serious contender until the top talent in the West had diminished enough. We just disagree.

And to answer my own question, I think one or two training camps is enough.
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