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Dennis_D
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 Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 10:21 am Post subject: Lakers current roster position and potential off-season moves |
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The main reason the Lakers are so bad is that they don't have enough talent. If I had drawn up a depth chart at the start of pre-season, I would have had:
PG - Nash / Lin / Price / Clarkson
SG - Bryant / Henry / Ellington
SF - Johnson / Young
PF - Boozer / Randle / Kelly
C - Hill / Davis / Sacre
Nash went down before the first game. Young and Kelly were injured in pre-season. Randle was injured in the first game and out for the season. After the first game, the depth chart assuming no injuries would have been:
PG - Lin / Price / Clarkson
SG - Bryant / Henry / Ellington
SF - Johnson / Young
PF - Boozer / Davis / Kelly
C - Hill / Sacre
Sadly, of the starters on that depth chart, only Kobe played like a starter. After 20 games, Lin and Boozer lost their starting jobs. Hill and Johnson were underwhelming as starters but the alternatives - Sacre and Kelly - were worse. Of the back ups, Price, Henry and Young had injury-shortened seasons (43, 9 and 42 games respectively).
Looking to next season, here is how I would fill out the depth chart with the players we have on contract for next season:
PG - Clarkson / ???
SG - Bryant / ???
SF - ??? / Young
PF - Randle / Kelly
C - ??? / Black / Sacre
This assumes that Randle and Kobe will be up to playing as starters. Clarkson has been playing starting PG quality ball of late and with his work ethic, I think he'll be even better next season.
That leaves four slots to be filled. The rest of this post is going to look at how that can be done.
Draft picks
Getting a top 5 pick is huge for the Lakers. If they get it, then hopefully they will be able to get a player who will be able to fairly quickly fill one of their empty starter slots.
The Lakers will have the Rockets #1 pick (currently #27) and their second round pick (currently #34). It's hard to draft a decent player that late, but the Lakers have shown they can find gems late in the draft. Hopefully, one of those picks will turn out able to fill one of the back up slots.
If the Clippers second round pick falls to 51-55 (it's currently 56), then the Lakers would get it. I wouldn't count on it to produce a useful player, though the Lakers managed to get Sacre in 2012 with a worst pick (#60).
Last year, the Lakers bought the #46 pick and drafted Clarkson. I don't see them buying a pick this year. They are going to have so many young players as it is.
Re-signing players
Re-signing players is the easiest way to fill a hole. The Lakers know the player and how he plays on their team. The player knows the team. Most of the time, a player will re-sign with his team unless he gets a better offer from another team.
Davis
He's the player I'd like to re-sign the most. He's a sold back up big. It depends on the cost and who they draft with their Top 5 pick. If they re-sign him, I'd put him as back up to Randle and slide Kelly down to third string PF.
Lin
Since the All-Star break, he's played much better. He had started developing some chemistry with Clarkson when both of them started. If a Lin-Clarkson backcourt could be successful, then Kobe could move to starting SF to fill that hole. If they could sign him to a reasonable two or three year deal, I think it would be a good signing.
Brown
Re-signing him looks like a no-brainer. He should be cheap and he fills the back up SG spot.
Price
I'd re-sign him if he'll take a one-year minimum deal. It's hard to find vet PG's. If the Lakers draft a PG, then Price can be the back up PG until the rookie is up to playing back up minutes.
The rest
Hill has been the biggest disappointment of the season to me. If the Lakers pick up another C, then there isn't any space on the roster for him.
Johnson has had two years to prove himself and has failed. The minutes and roster spot would be better used on a player with more potential.
Ellington has played well considering the expectations when he was signed, but hopefully the Lakers will have Brown and another young player to take his spot.
Boozer isn't a fit for a young, rebuilding team, particularly if the Lakers re-sign Davis.
Trades
At first blush, the Lakers can't make a trade because they don't have any assets with trade value that they would want to trade. What they do have is cap room. The seven signed players they have take up $37.7M in cap space (link). If the Lakers get the #4 pick, the #27 pick and the #34th pick, that should take them to ~$43M (link). Re-signing Ed Davis will probably cost between $5-8M (link). I'd guess Lin at $4M, Brown at $1M and Price at $1M. If I go with $6M for Davis, that would take the Lakers to $55M. The 2016 salary cap will be around $67.6M (link). If the Lakers don't sign a free agent, they'll have room to absorb a contract that a team wants to get rid of. Last off-season, they got Lin and Houston's #1 pick because they had the cap room to absorb his contract.
The Lakers were able to get Lin last off-season because the Rockets were wanting to clear cap room to sign Bosh. I don't think you can predict that type of thing. One opportunity might be the Warriors, who are facing a massive luxury tax next season with a $83.4M payroll currently for 11 players. Perhaps the Warriors will want to dump Shaun Livingston as someone at $5.5M next season who will cost too much for the value he brings. Or maybe the Wizards will want to exchange the disappointing Otto Porter for the Lakers second round pick.
Free agents
The only position I would look at signing an expensive free agent is center. There will be a lot of quality center free agents this off-season (link):
Mark Gasol (unrestricted)
Brook Lopez (player option)
Roy Hibbert (player option)
DeAndre Jordan (unrestricted)
Al Jefferson (player option)
Nikola Vucevic (restricted)
Omer Asik (unrestricted)
Robin Lopez (unrestricted)
Enes Kanter (restricted)
Tyson Chandler (unrestricted)
Most of those players will take a max contract to sign.
If the Lakers draft a center, then at first glance you would think that they would look to fill their starting SF spot through free agency. However, most of the SF free agents (link) are likely to stay with the current team. The rest are underwhelming.
The Lakers have had good luck with signing players who want to prove that they are better than the offers they are getting and are willing to sign a one year low-cost deal. Ed Davis was that type of player this year. Last year, it was Kaman, Young and Farmar. They may able to do it again this year, but it will be harder as they don't have as many holes in their roster.
Conclusion
It's easy to think there's no light at the end of the tunnel for the Lakers. However, they aren't that far from having a solid, young roster. If they draft Winslow, sign a top-notch center and have good luck in the draft, they should have the talent to compete next season.
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 10:25 am Post subject: |
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Ohh. Love seeing your posts. Will have to review it later. Thanks.
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 10:27 am Post subject: |
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Good post, things aren't as bleak as some seem to think. We have two nice young pieces (at least) going forward, we just need to bring in some vets to play with them. The question is, do we go with one big FA this offseason and one big FA next offseason? Or do we break that salary slot up and get a couple of tier 2 players this offseason and a big FA next? Or a couple now and a couple more in 2016? The name of the game is to have moveable assets that can play, so it will be interesting to see how the FO approaches that.
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 10:30 am Post subject: |
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Dennis, for better or worse, if Love is available and wants to be a Laker, I see that happening. I've vacillated on Love over the past 2 seasons, but I'm at the point where I can understand/accept that move should it occur. The hope is we can draft a big man IMO.
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LAkers 4 Life
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 10:42 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | Ohh. Love seeing your posts. Will have to review it later. Thanks. |
Are you sure it's not to just stare at his animated gif?  |
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activeverb
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 10:43 am Post subject: |
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I see next season as a complete question mark. Will Kobe be healthy? Will the young guys develop? Will the draft picks pan out? What free agents will sign here?
My guess is some things will go our way, some things won't, and the net effect will be a few baby steps forward rather than a huge leap.
I am not expecting us to be genuine competitors as early as next year. If we turn into a 8th seed that gets wiped out 0-4 in the first round that will be a huge improvement.
I don't think we'll be true competitors until the post-Kobe era. I accept that we are still at the start of the rebuilding. |
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LAkers 4 Life
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 10:46 am Post subject: |
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| venturalakersfan wrote: | | Good post, things aren't as bleak as some seem to think. We have two nice young pieces (at least) going forward, we just need to bring in some vets to play with them. The question is, do we go with one big FA this offseason and one big FA next offseason? Or do we break that salary slot up and get a couple of tier 2 players this offseason and a big FA next? Or a couple now and a couple more in 2016? The name of the game is to have moveable assets that can play, so it will be interesting to see how the FO approaches that. |
I think a lot of that strategy may depend on what the 2016 salary cap will be. Best case scenario is to be competitive enough next season to attract big name free agents when the big cap space opens up. |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 10:46 am Post subject: |
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| activeverb wrote: | I see next season as a complete question mark. Will Kobe be healthy? Will the young guys develop? Will the draft picks pan out? What free agents will sign here?
My guess is some things will go our way, some things won't, and the net effect will be a few baby steps forward rather than a huge leap.
I am not expecting us to be genuine competitors as early as next year. If we turn into a 8th seed that gets wiped out 0-4 in the first round that will be a huge improvement.
I don't think we'll be true competitors until the post-Kobe era. I accept that we are still at the start of the rebuilding. |
Agreed. If we get a top 5 pick, it'll certainly be an intriguing year seeing Randle, Clarkson, top 5, Kobe's possible final year, etc. Much more entertaining and incremental but forward progress.
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Anthony Peeler
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 11:12 am Post subject: |
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You presented a best case scenario but let me present the more likely scenario, which is pretty dim.
It's likely that Bryant will not play a full season due to injuries. Maybe even worse will be if he DOES play a full season, chucking up shots while shooting 37% FG and playing Harden-like defense. Similarly, a healthy Swaggy P, even at his best, is still a detriment to the team due to his one dimensional ways. Randle, despite his promise, will effectively be a rookie who will experience growing pains. Unless the Lakers get both someone on the level of Gasol AND draft someone like Towns, the Lakers in 2015-16 will still be a lottery team. And don't forget that we still will have BS. So we could even be a TOP 3 lottery team. Philly should be a few games better next year with an improved Noel, the return of Embiid, and another high pick, likely at guard. The Knicks will probably maintain their ineptitude but it's more likely that Melo plays more (thereby increasing their win total) than an older Kobe. Minnesota should get marginally better as Wiggins develops, and they add a high draft pick. As it becomes clear that we suck, there will be more pressure to start tanking early so that we maintain the draft pick since it's only Top 3 protected. Also, it's the Thon Maker draft so there will be added pressure to tank early and hard. |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 11:21 am Post subject: |
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| Anthony Peeler wrote: | You presented a best case scenario but let me present the more likely scenario, which is pretty dim.
It's likely that Bryant will not play a full season due to injuries. Maybe even worse will be if he DOES play a full season, chucking up shots while shooting 37% FG and playing Harden-like defense. Similarly, a healthy Swaggy P, even at his best, is still a detriment to the team due to his one dimensional ways. Randle, despite his promise, will effectively be a rookie who will experience growing pains. Unless the Lakers get both someone on the level of Gasol AND draft someone like Towns, the Lakers in 2015-16 will still be a lottery team. And don't forget that we still will have BS. So we could even be a TOP 3 lottery team. Philly should be a few games better next year with an improved Noel, the return of Embiid, and another high pick, likely at guard. The Knicks will probably maintain their ineptitude but it's more likely that Melo plays more (thereby increasing their win total) than an older Kobe. Minnesota should get marginally better as Wiggins develops, and they add a high draft pick. As it becomes clear that we suck, there will be more pressure to start tanking early so that we maintain the draft pick since it's only Top 3 protected. Also, it's the Thon Maker draft so there will be added pressure to tank early and hard. |
By virtue of a top 3 protection, there is literally no way to guarantee that pick. Not even the worst record is guaranteed a top 3 pick (though the % will remain high). I have a difficult time seeing the Lakers try to tank next year when it took them until nearly mid-January/February to start getting serious about losing games.
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Anthony Peeler
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 11:28 am Post subject: |
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| A Top 3 pick isn't a guarantee but the Lakers can put themselves in the best position to have the highest odds for getting a Top 3 pick. If the Lakers start out next season 3-13, like they did this year, I can see things falling apart pretty quickly. |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 11:29 am Post subject: |
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| Anthony Peeler wrote: | | A Top 3 pick isn't a guarantee but the Lakers can put themselves in the best position to have the highest odds for getting a Top 3 pick. If the Lakers start out next season 3-13, like they did this year, I can see things falling apart pretty quickly. |
Based on their reluctance this year on a much more feasible top 5 pick protection, I doubt they will do a concerted tank job on a more restrictive top 3 pick protection.
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Chronicle
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 11:39 am Post subject: |
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I really don't want Lin to return , and frankly I don't think he wants to return either.
Felt like he knew right from day one that he didn't want to be here. Just a mercenary. Got the exact same vibe from him that I got from Howard during his first interviews. And look where he went.
I'm also not set on Brown. And I'm very iffy on the FO. I feel like they've been two steps behind for a few seasons now.
Yes they got Clarkson. But that's a small part of the FO. One of the scouts convinced them to offer cash for a second rounder. Very very low risk move. I am not convinced any other facet of the FO knows what they're doing.
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ice_cold
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 11:39 am Post subject: |
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| Great post Dennis_D |
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Anthony Peeler
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 11:46 am Post subject: |
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| Chronicle wrote: | I really don't want Lin to return , and frankly I don't think he wants to return either.
Felt like he knew right from day one that he didn't want to be here. Just a mercenary. Got the exact same vibe from him that I got from Howard during his first interviews. And look where he went.
I'm also not set on Brown. And I'm very iffy on the FO. I feel like they've been two steps behind for a few seasons now.
Yes they got Clarkson. But that's a small part of the FO. One of the scouts convinced them to offer cash for a second rounder. Very very low risk move. I am not convinced any other facet of the FO knows what they're doing. |
Of course, Lin had no say in the matter since he was traded to LA but I think he was very excited to come to LA, despite the one-year situation. He felt like he was being disrespected in Houston and he knew that he was likely going to be traded. To end up, of all places, in Los Angeles where he has friends and relatives, a very large Taiwanese and Asian American population, and a GM who expressed interest in signing him from the very beginning -- I think LA was probably in his Top 3 of places he could have ended up. The only negative is probably that he didn't anticipate how hard-headed BS would be. |
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:19 pm Post subject: |
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The two fundamental pieces that have to be sorted out are if the Lakers have the pick, and where it falls. Everything flows out of that. The next layer would be what if any high value/impact free agents are available.
My assumption is that LA has Kobe, young, Randle, Kelly, clarkson, and the Houston pick. Those are all pretty set except clarkson's non guaranteed deal, but he isn't getting cut to save .35 mil. Sacre and black are both non guaranteed, and cost the Lakers about 800k over minimum cap holds, but both can be cut any time should that money be needed. So at a cap of 67.4 mil, LA has between 26.5 (both sacre and black on the roster) and 27.3. (Neither kept) mil in cap room, or about 27 even if they keep black but not sacre. This is without the pick, and for one player. An extra half mil is added for each additional player that cap room is used on (replacing a minimum cap hold with an actual player).
The draft pick comes out of that, which leaves them between around 24.3 on the high end (no black or sacre and the fifth pick), or 21.5 ish on the low end (top pick, both kept).
The odds are very low that they exercise the option on hill, because they have to do so before free agency, and even without the pick would leave them short of a full max in cap room. If they do exercise it, it would be a punt move, deliberately taking themselves out of the max, and pushing more cap room into 2016. Possible, but not likely.
Pick or no pick, they likely look at a max if available (a Kevin love or even a deandre Jordan), which would leave them enough room to sign one or two five mil guys (if they have the pick, one, if not, two), or a ten mil guy with no pick.
The top level scenario is a pick and a max, leaving 3.5 to 5.5 in cap room and a room exception. A pick and no max leaves 22-24 mil in cap, and a max and no pick leaves 9-10 mil.
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:25 pm Post subject: |
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My guess is barring a max signing (or with a max and no pick), Lin and Davis are options at deals in the five mil range. On the extreme no pick no high dollar free agent front, youncoukd see something in the ballpark of Lin, Davis, koufos, Danny green. Go for depth and trade assets.
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jonnybravo
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:26 pm Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | activeverb wrote: | I see next season as a complete question mark. Will Kobe be healthy? Will the young guys develop? Will the draft picks pan out? What free agents will sign here?
My guess is some things will go our way, some things won't, and the net effect will be a few baby steps forward rather than a huge leap.
I am not expecting us to be genuine competitors as early as next year. If we turn into a 8th seed that gets wiped out 0-4 in the first round that will be a huge improvement.
I don't think we'll be true competitors until the post-Kobe era. I accept that we are still at the start of the rebuilding. |
Agreed. If we get a top 5 pick, it'll certainly be an intriguing year seeing Randle, Clarkson, top 5, Kobe's possible final year, etc. Much more entertaining and incremental but forward progress. |
The top 5 pick is the biggest question mark imo. I've pretty much penciled in Kobester as ineffectual at this point. Another year older... |
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lukewaltonsdad
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:26 pm Post subject: |
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| 24 wrote: | | My guess is barring a max signing (or with a max and no pick), Lin and Davis are options at deals in the five mil range. On the extreme no pick no high dollar free agent front, youncoukd see something in the ballpark of Lin, Davis, koufos, Danny green. Go for depth and trade assets. |
Thanks 24. You always make a ton of sense to me. Thanks for keeping me level-headed with your commentary. |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:27 pm Post subject: |
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| 24 wrote: | | My guess is barring a max signing (or with a max and no pick), Lin and Davis are options at deals in the five mil range. On the extreme no pick no high dollar free agent front, youncoukd see something in the ballpark of Lin, Davis, koufos, Danny green. Go for depth and trade assets. |
Not that the Lakers have had this much cap space in a while, but would be an interesting change of direction for a team that has usually tried the home-run or strike out approach. I agree that the cap money will be spent this summer regardless. But if they went for the 4 1-carat diamonds instead of the 3-4 carat diamond, that would be an interesting shift in that strategy (the home run strategy would likely be employed in 2016 again).
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lukewaltonsdad
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:30 pm Post subject: |
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| Acquiring Love this off-season is their goal, IMO. |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:35 pm Post subject: |
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| 24 wrote: | | My guess is barring a max signing (or with a max and no pick), Lin and Davis are options at deals in the five mil range. On the extreme no pick no high dollar free agent front, youncoukd see something in the ballpark of Lin, Davis, koufos, Danny green. Go for depth and trade assets. |
I think their prices will be something like:
Lin: 6-7
Davis: 6-7
Green: 7-8
Koufous: 6m.
Would Kofous and/or Ed Davis sign with the Lakers though knowing that their PT may be reduced b/c of the other player? This was sort of the problem at Memphis (though if we don't draft a big man like Towns/Okafor/WCS Koufous may start).
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scoobs
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:40 pm Post subject: |
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Draft
#4 Deangelo Russell- Best player available on their board. Knicks take Okafor, Wolves take Towns and Sixers suprise everyone and take Mudiay.
#27 Devin Booker- The sharp shooter from Kentucky slides to #27, best player available
#34 Robert Upshaw- Lakers gamble on the shot blocking big
Free Agency
Kevin Love - Thursday got so bad in Cle, he decides to cut his losses and start over in L.A. Would be some what of a homecoming got him and he would have celebrity status in a town of stars. 4years/85million? Whatever max is. The extra 4-5 million that is left could be used on somebody like Ed Davis, Kuofos, Antic or Kevin Serapin. Then, the room exception could be used on a vet small forward type, like Jared Dudley or Shawn Marion.
I would bring back Jabari Brown and Tarik Black, maybe Wes to a minimum deal. Maybe a decent vet pg too.
PF-Love, Randle
SF-Dudley, Young, Johnson
C-Serapin, Upshaw, Black
PG-Russell, Clarkson,vet
SG-Bryant, Booker, Brown
At this point, we have a decent roster. Russell putting up roy numbers, Clarkson and Randle putting up redicuolous per 36 minute numbers, Kobe getting 20ppg, Love putting up 25 and 13. So, by the trade deadline maybe Westbrook demands a trade to the Lakers? We could put together a pretty good package of Russell, Randle, Young and maybe free agents like Dudley/Serapin to balance out contracts.
We then would have a nucleus of
Westbrook
Love
Bryant
And still have young players like
Clarkson
Booker
Upshaw |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:42 pm Post subject: |
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Westbrook AND Kobe on the same team? YOLO. 
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32
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| Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:55 pm Post subject: |
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Lakers need to play it cool this off season, be patient and don't do anything stupid with free agent contracts even if it means missing the playoffs again. The real opportunity will be for the 2016-17 season when Kobe comes off the books and the salary cap will sky rocket to an estimated $90 million. I don't know all of the free agents that will be available but they should have a ton of cash to spend (multiple max salaries). Just in time before a possible nasty CBA lockout for the 2017-18 season.
Historic salary cap increase set for 2016-17 (Lakers related discussion)
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