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Omar Little
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 Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 12:34 pm Post subject: By The Numbers ***The Official Analytics Thread*** |
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Thought since it has become quite the topic, people might want a thread to discuss analytics and to post and look for them. Just for starters, I thought i'd post the PPP (points per possession) allowed defensively by our bigs last year. The categories tracked are Post Ups, Pick and Roll Roll Man, Pick and Roll Ballhandler, Isolation, and Spot up. A lower number is better. For each I will post the PPP followed by the league percentile in parentheses. So here goes:
Post Up
Black .68 (87.6)
Hill .77 (69.7)
Kelly .81 (60.1)
Davis .91 (38.2)
Pick and Roll Roll Man
Kelly .74 (75.9)
Black .83 (62.3)
Davis .95 (28.4)
Hill 1.08 (15.4)
Pick and Roll Ball Handler
Davis .64 (84.3)
Kelly .78 (50.6)
Black no data
Hill no data
Isolation
Davis .61 (89.3)
Black .72 (74.5)
Kelly 1.05 (14.2)
Hill 1.24 (3.0)
Spot Up
Kelly .83 (86.5)
Hill .85 (81.7)
Black .85 (81.1)
Davis 1.15 (13.7)
So what are some takeaways from this?
Black is the most solid all around defender, in the post, on the pick and roll, in isolation, and closing out on shooters. He is in the top 38% on his worst listing, and really, surprisingly well rounded overall.
Hill is, as expected, a horrible pick and roll defender, and an even worse isolation defender, but is solid on the block and closing on a shooter. Basically this speaks to his instincts or lack thereof. If the guy is right in front of him he's OK, so long as there isn't a pick or a dribble move.
Kelly is underrated as a defender. He posts very decent numbers across the board on post ups, defending the roll man, and closing out on a shooter (where that 9-2 standing reach comes into play). He is only average picking up the ball handler on pick and roll, and struggles in isolation (though not nearly as much as Hill does). The numbers back up the eye test that he's a four, not a three.
Davis is surprisingly good at defending the ball handler on the pick and roll (probably the shot blocking aspect, although in pretty limited sample size), and defends very well against isolation. He is pretty lousy at defending the post, worse at defending the roll man (perhaps he is too ball handler oriented?), and really not good at all at closing out shooters. |
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lonlyamongus1
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Joined: 28 Apr 2015
Posts: 21
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 1:38 pm Post subject: |
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| Hill was flat out atrocious on both end this year. His shooting chart resembled KG while being the biggest guy on the field. For his position as a c. He took 37% of his shots at 10~16ft. He only took 22% 0~3ft shots. someone need to tell hill his jumper is useless |
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 1:45 pm Post subject: |
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And now for the offensive PPP for the Laker bigs. Categories are post up, putbacks, roll man, cut, spot up, isolation, and transition (percentile again in parentheses):
Post Up
Kelly .90 (67.8)
Davis .88 (60.9)
Black .85 (53.6)
Hill .82 (45.9)
Putbacks
Davis 1.18 (71.1)
Black 1.12 (58.0)
Hill 1.07 (50.7)
Kelly no data (probably have to grab a rebound to get a putback)
Roll Man
Black 1.15 (81.4)
Davis 1.09 (73.8)
Kelly 1.07 (70.9)
Hill .85 (28.1)
Cut
Hill 1.18 (49.7)
Davis 1.15 (46.1)
Black 1.13 (40.6)
Kelly .50 (0.3) 
Spot Up
Hill .76 (22.1)
Kelly .74 (19.3)
Black .71 (15.4)
Davis no data
Isolation
Black 1.08 (93.7)
Kelly 1.00 (88.6)
Hill .73 (35.4)
Davis no data
Transition
Black 1.60 (99.3)
Davis 1.43 (95.7)
Kelly 1.35 (90.0)
Hill 1.10 (49.5)
Takeaways:
Black again shows out as a well rounded guy. His hustle and underrated athleticism show up in the transition, isolation, and roll man areas, where he is not only tops of this group, but in the high end of the league efficiency wise. He's a decent post up, putback, and cut guy, but not muc of a shooter.
Davis surprisingly ranked behind Black as a P&R finsiher, but is very good, and is also really good in transition and on putbacks. He's decent in the post and as a cutter, and simply doesn't spot p or go ISO (knows his limitations).
Kelly is a better roll man, post up player (best of the 4), isolation, and transition guy than you would think. He doesn't get any offensive rebounds so he doesn't get any putbacks, and his .3 percentile on cuts is awful (although it may be too small a sample size), as is his really poor spot up shooting. Hopefully he bounces back from that, because even average spot up shooting makes him a decent player.
Hill is a guy who ranked above the 50th percentile in only one thing (putbacks), and then only at 50.7%, which is kind of useless since he doesn't go to the boards as much. He's the worst post up, roll man, isolation, and transition guy of the four, and the two things he does the best aren't all that great, as he is a 35.4 percentile spot up shooter and a 49.7 percentile cutter. Completely underwhelming offensive player, and proof that raw numbers can tell big lies. |
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RCS926
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Joined: 05 Nov 2003
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 2:09 pm Post subject: |
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| Great stuff 24. It's clear that Hill shouldn't be on the roster next season. Let's hope the FO doesn't waste another year on him. |
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 2:11 pm Post subject: |
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Top 10 NBA post up men (minimum of 200 possessions):
1. Valanciunas 1.02
2. Love .98
3. Montiejunas .98
4. Aldridge .96
5. M Gasol .95
6. Melo .95
7. Nowitzki .95
8. Griffin .95
9. B Lopez .94
10. Jefferson .93 |
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 2:18 pm Post subject: |
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Top 10 NBA Roll Men (minimum 150 possessions):
1. T Zeller 1.20
2. R Lopez 1.17
3. A Davis 1.16
4. Amir Johnson 1.16
5. Nowitzki 1.11
6. B Lopez 1.08
7. Bosh 1.07
8. Duncan 1.05
9. Vucevic 1.04
10. Bass 1.03 |
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NomisR
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 2:26 pm Post subject: |
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| I'm wondering what Hills numbers were like last year, because this year, he was allowed to play away from the basket and shoot outside where as, last year, he was more efficient when playing cleanup and under the board. |
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 2:27 pm Post subject: |
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Average PPP for post up possessions= .83
Average PPP for roll man possessions= .96
Number of players with 100 post up possessions or more who exceeded average PPP for roll man= 8
Number of players with 100 roll man possessions who exceeded average PPP for post ups= 53 |
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K0BEE 2.0
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 2:31 pm Post subject: |
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| I'm guessing Sacre's post up is something like 0.2.... |
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GoldenThroat
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 2:36 pm Post subject: |
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| 24 wrote: | Average PPP for post up possessions= .83
Average PPP for roll man possessions= .96
Number of players with 100 post up possessions or more who exceeded average PPP for roll man= 8
Number of players with 100 roll man possessions who exceeded average PPP for post ups= 53 |
I feel like you're getting at something here, but I'm not quite sure what it is... |
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 2:40 pm Post subject: |
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| K0BEE 2.0 wrote: | | I'm guessing Sacre's post up is something like 0.2.... |
.83, league average... |
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 2:44 pm Post subject: |
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| GoldenThroat wrote: | | 24 wrote: | Average PPP for post up possessions= .83
Average PPP for roll man possessions= .96
Number of players with 100 post up possessions or more who exceeded average PPP for roll man= 8
Number of players with 100 roll man possessions who exceeded average PPP for post ups= 53 |
I feel like you're getting at something here, but I'm not quite sure what it is... |
Number of roll men with 100 or more possessions who exceeded the PPP of the top post up player with 100 or more possessions= 18 |
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kikanga
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 2:48 pm Post subject: |
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Are there any APP (Assists per possession) stats for post ups vs P&R roll men?
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 2:50 pm Post subject: |
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Reasons why DeAndre Jordan and Tyson Chandler will get big contract offers:
Ranked one and two in roll men with over 100 possessions in PPP (1.41 for Chandler, 1.36 for Jordan).
Also held opposing roll men to .83 (chandler), and .94 (Jordan).
Held opposing post men to .68 (chandler) and .82 (Jordan) |
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 2:55 pm Post subject: |
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| kikanga wrote: | | Are there any APP (Assists per possession) stats for post ups vs P&R roll men? |
Unfortunately, that kind of stuff isn't currently available to the general public. There is, however, a newer stat service Vantage Sports, that is digging really deep into this kind of stuff and is working on a consumer portal, hopefully in the near future.
FWIW, I think the assist comparison would be post men to pick and roll ball handlers, since those are the decision makers in those plays. What I really want to see is PPP off of plays, as in, how much does the average pick and roll generate vs the average post up in total. |
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kikanga
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 2:59 pm Post subject: |
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| 24 wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | | Are there any APP (Assists per possession) stats for post ups vs P&R roll men? |
Unfortunately, that kind of stuff isn't currently available to the general public. There is, however, a newer stat service Vantage Sports, that is digging really deep into this kind of stuff and is working on a consumer portal, hopefully in the near future.
FWIW, I think the assist comparison would be post men to pick and roll ball handlers, since those are the decision makers in those plays. What I really want to see is PPP off of plays, as in, how much does the average pick and roll generate vs the average post up in total. |
That's interesting. Hopefully we get access to some newer stats in the future.
If the assist comparison would be post men to pick and roll ball handlers, I think the points comparison should be P&R roll man and whoever receives the kickout pass from the post.
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LakerSanity
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 3:05 pm Post subject: |
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Withcraft!....
Actually, pretty awesome.
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GoldenThroat
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 3:08 pm Post subject: |
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| LakerSanity wrote: | Withcraft!....
Actually, pretty awesome. |
Bummer about that lisp, man. |
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 3:12 pm Post subject: |
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| kikanga wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | | Are there any APP (Assists per possession) stats for post ups vs P&R roll men? |
Unfortunately, that kind of stuff isn't currently available to the general public. There is, however, a newer stat service Vantage Sports, that is digging really deep into this kind of stuff and is working on a consumer portal, hopefully in the near future.
FWIW, I think the assist comparison would be post men to pick and roll ball handlers, since those are the decision makers in those plays. What I really want to see is PPP off of plays, as in, how much does the average pick and roll generate vs the average post up in total. |
That's interesting. Hopefully we get access to some newer stats in the future.
If the assist comparison would be post men to pick and roll ball handlers, I think the points comparison should be P&R roll man and whoever receives the kickout pass from the post. |
It is kind of hard to break it down that way since the post man is either going to try and score or kick it out, while both the roll man and ball handler may try to score or pass. The best comparison, apples to apples, would simply be PPP out of the play as a whole. That way you encmpass everything. |
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pjiddy
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 3:13 pm Post subject: |
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| *Shakes cane* back in my day we won by posting up! |
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 3:23 pm Post subject: |
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Reasons why LaMarcus Aldridge is coveted.
Ranked second in post attempts while ranking first in PPP of anyone in the top 15 in possessions (The closest guys to him in possessions who ranked higher in PPP were Valanciuns and Love, who had less post possessions combined than he did), while being top five in the league at drawing doubles.
Was also really good at spotting up (1.00 PPP), cutting (1.21), transition (1.23), and putbacks (1.37), and was above average in isolations (.86). Only weak area was as a roll man (.83, which is an average post possession).
Defensively he was .67 against the post up, .88 against the pick and roll, .76 vs the ISO, and .87 vs the spot up, all very good to great numbers. |
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GoldenThroat
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 3:26 pm Post subject: |
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| 24 wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | | Are there any APP (Assists per possession) stats for post ups vs P&R roll men? |
Unfortunately, that kind of stuff isn't currently available to the general public. There is, however, a newer stat service Vantage Sports, that is digging really deep into this kind of stuff and is working on a consumer portal, hopefully in the near future.
FWIW, I think the assist comparison would be post men to pick and roll ball handlers, since those are the decision makers in those plays. What I really want to see is PPP off of plays, as in, how much does the average pick and roll generate vs the average post up in total. |
Further to this point, there's only anecdotal evidence about this. Passing off of any play type yields a higher PPP than the actual shot does, with (I believe) the exception of spot up shooting & PnR roll men (basically, the finishers of an action). So a PnR ball-handler yields a higher PPP by passing the ball than shooting the ball himself, and the same is true out of the post.
A couple of findings regarding passing out of the post.
Here are the Top 10 PPP's from passing out of the post from the 2013-14 season.
Then there is this nugget from this article, which was written early in the '13-14 season.
| Quote: | Nene, a willing and skilled passer, produces middling results when moving the ball out of a post-up — he ranks only in the 58th percentile on passes from the post to spot-up shooters.
It’s with players like Nene where the inefficiency of post-ups starts coming to light. Despite ranking worse in the latter category, those passes out to shooters produce a PPP (points per possession) rate of 1.143. In comparison, Nowitzki ranks sixth in the league (minimum of 25 attempts) with a PPP of 1.137, according to the Synergy Sports database. That means Nene, despite a middling effectiveness as a post player, creates better offense simply by passing out of a post-up than the future Hall of Famer does by taking a shot. |
So if Nene's in the 58th percentile with a PPP of 1.143 out of the post, that would mean that the league average would (probably) be in the 1.08-1.10 range on passes out of the post.
That is very solid production. However, passes out of the post don't happen very frequently, because double teams are rarer and rarer. If you'll notice in the picture above (sorry the text is small), the top passers out of the post are only doing it 1-2 times per game. The reason is that simply letting the guy take the shot while staying home with everyone else is a MUCH less productive.
I'll see if I can dig up the passes off of the PnR stats somewhere. These stats are part of the paid services that Synergy and Vantage offer, rather than what's available to the general public.
Last edited by GoldenThroat on Wed May 06, 2015 3:27 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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kikanga
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 3:27 pm Post subject: |
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| 24 wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | | Are there any APP (Assists per possession) stats for post ups vs P&R roll men? |
Unfortunately, that kind of stuff isn't currently available to the general public. There is, however, a newer stat service Vantage Sports, that is digging really deep into this kind of stuff and is working on a consumer portal, hopefully in the near future.
FWIW, I think the assist comparison would be post men to pick and roll ball handlers, since those are the decision makers in those plays. What I really want to see is PPP off of plays, as in, how much does the average pick and roll generate vs the average post up in total. |
That's interesting. Hopefully we get access to some newer stats in the future.
If the assist comparison would be post men to pick and roll ball handlers, I think the points comparison should be P&R roll man and whoever receives the kickout pass from the post. |
It is kind of hard to break it down that way since the post man is either going to try and score or kick it out, while both the roll man and ball handler may try to score or pass. The best comparison, apples to apples, would simply be PPP out of the play as a whole. That way you encmpass everything. |
Agreed
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44TheLogo
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 3:30 pm Post subject: |
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| As a Dukie and longtime Ryan Kelly supporter, it's nice to see the stats back up what I've long believed about him - that he's a decent NBA 4, and that he is severely underrated defensively. |
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Mike@LG
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 3:48 pm Post subject: |
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Understand that PnR is the new wave NBA, but I still like Okafor in the post, especially when he shows ability to pass effectively out of it.
Then again, I still love the triangle offense, princeton offense, and having an apex to the triangle for penetrating the defense by position.
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