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Love&Peace
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GoldenThroat
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 Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 9:21 pm Post subject: |
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| 24 wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | In other words, his defense when not involved in the initial action, and recovery rotations are bad. |
Yes. But that is a significant portion of team defense. |
The key to building a defense around love is to do the counterintuitive. You play him at center defensively and simplify his rotational responsibilities. Requires pairing him with a mobile shot blocker. Wcs is the draft pick if you are targeting love. |
That's an interesting thought. The guy that I'd like to pair with Love would be Ibaka. I'd love to see data on this, but I think going 5-out is probably the most offensively efficient set in the NBA. The reason that you don't see more of it is that teams don't have the personnel to do it without getting scorched on defense/rebounding. I think Love/Ibaka could pull it off. And Love could be the post player in 4-out sets.
It's probably a long shot, but I'd like to see if we could swing #4 for Ibaka. I think we'd need to add something else for cap reasons in order to have the space for Love, but I'd explore it. OKC is in a bit of a spot with Kanter as an RFA. |
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 9:59 pm Post subject: |
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| I have a hard time seeing okc parting with ibaka. Wcs works perfectly with love, however. Love's incredible base allows him to root out the post man, and wcs has the speed to cover on the perimeter (and hedge or show on the screens), while having the ability to help at the rim from long distances in the instances where Love needs it. love can simply play ground bound zone up, dropping back, tagging the roll man, and placing his body in the path of the ball handler. On offense love can post up with wcs playing the weak side baseline (or coming out for screens, with love being able to slide out into spot up duty), and they can play some high low because Love has excellent high post ability. Davis is also a workable option, should the Lakers decide to go after a wing marauder like winslow (and maybe upshaw). Oddly, even though they wouldn't have a lot of traditional rim protection, Randle's speed and show/recover aptitude mean he and Love could do some duty at 4 and 5. |
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44TheLogo
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2015 10:16 pm Post subject: |
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| GoldenThroat wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | In other words, his defense when not involved in the initial action, and recovery rotations are bad. |
Yes. But that is a significant portion of team defense. |
The key to building a defense around love is to do the counterintuitive. You play him at center defensively and simplify his rotational responsibilities. Requires pairing him with a mobile shot blocker. Wcs is the draft pick if you are targeting love. |
That's an interesting thought. The guy that I'd like to pair with Love would be Ibaka. I'd love to see data on this, but I think going 5-out is probably the most offensively efficient set in the NBA. The reason that you don't see more of it is that teams don't have the personnel to do it without getting scorched on defense/rebounding. I think Love/Ibaka could pull it off. And Love could be the post player in 4-out sets.
It's probably a long shot, but I'd like to see if we could swing #4 for Ibaka. I think we'd need to add something else for cap reasons in order to have the space for Love, but I'd explore it. OKC is in a bit of a spot with Kanter as an RFA. |
Love's offensive rebounding % has tanked this season because he's being used as a spot up shooter/floor spacer and not getting any post touches, and I think that has for some reason carried over to the defensive end (perhaps psychologically difficult to maintain a "rebounding motor") because he's not grabbing defensive boards ta the same rate he historically has either. He's not an elite rebounder this year for whatever reason. |
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Thu May 07, 2015 1:26 am Post subject: |
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| I've been arguing that getting either Aldridge or Love would be beneficial because they are very good players that would qualify as acquiring another asset for us, and it's nice to see that backed up by the advanced stats. |
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Thu May 07, 2015 8:46 am Post subject: |
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| Gt and I are going to post the offensive and defensive PPP for a bunch of free agents that the Lakers may consider. I'm going to start with the big men and he with the guards. I will post both the PPP and number of possessions for each play type for each guy, so you can see it in context. Knowing that Love has .98 PPP from post ups and Aldridge a .96, for example, is important, but knowing that Aldridge does it over twice as many possessions is also important. I will start with centers on offense, then centers on defense, and then do the same for power forwards. Since the stats are not combined for guys with multiple teams, I will pick the more appropriate team, like using Dallas for brandan wright. |
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stojan1993
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| Posted: Thu May 07, 2015 9:48 am Post subject: |
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| kely's offensive post up numbers really surprise me, i dont remember seing him post up people down low this season with succes, the only time he was posting up was when he had much smaller players on him and even then that would usually result in a turnover or a badly mised turnaround jumper, is it maybe that his sample size is very small or something like that? |
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Thu May 07, 2015 10:29 am Post subject: |
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| 24 wrote: | | venturalakersfan wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | | Are there any APP (Assists per possession) stats for post ups vs P&R roll men? |
Unfortunately, that kind of stuff isn't currently available to the general public. There is, however, a newer stat service Vantage Sports, that is digging really deep into this kind of stuff and is working on a consumer portal, hopefully in the near future.
FWIW, I think the assist comparison would be post men to pick and roll ball handlers, since those are the decision makers in those plays. What I really want to see is PPP off of plays, as in, how much does the average pick and roll generate vs the average post up in total. |
I saw you mention that in another post and have already read a few of their articles. I thought of you when I read the one titled "Defenses Can't Find Holes in Clippers Screens". The Clips set less screens than the league average (0.98 set screens per chance) but lead the league in set screen outcome efficiency rate (17.77 compared to the league average of 13.35). Blake Griffin is ranked 4th among PFs and tied for 19th among all screen setters with 0.98. DeAndre Jordan is 7th in the league at 0.11. Big Baby is up there too, so it is no wonder that Paul leads the league in screens received points per chance (0.12).
I know one of the reasons that you support adding DJ is his ability to set solid screens, and that opinion is supported using analytics. |
Yeah, the advantage of a well set screen is that it takes the defense into their next rotation quickly. If the PG can't get over Jordan's screen in time, the Jordan's man either has to show very aggressively, freeing Jordan to roll unmolested, drop back, putting CP3 into a nice shooting pocket, or get help from a third man, opening up all manner of stuff. The Clips also run weak side actions to open cutters and shooters. |
The difference between DJ and Howard setting screens was so abvious last night. I don't think Howard had any actual physical contact on any of his screens.
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AY2043
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| Posted: Thu May 07, 2015 10:39 am Post subject: |
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| venturalakersfan wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | venturalakersfan wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | | Are there any APP (Assists per possession) stats for post ups vs P&R roll men? |
Unfortunately, that kind of stuff isn't currently available to the general public. There is, however, a newer stat service Vantage Sports, that is digging really deep into this kind of stuff and is working on a consumer portal, hopefully in the near future.
FWIW, I think the assist comparison would be post men to pick and roll ball handlers, since those are the decision makers in those plays. What I really want to see is PPP off of plays, as in, how much does the average pick and roll generate vs the average post up in total. |
I saw you mention that in another post and have already read a few of their articles. I thought of you when I read the one titled "Defenses Can't Find Holes in Clippers Screens". The Clips set less screens than the league average (0.98 set screens per chance) but lead the league in set screen outcome efficiency rate (17.77 compared to the league average of 13.35). Blake Griffin is ranked 4th among PFs and tied for 19th among all screen setters with 0.98. DeAndre Jordan is 7th in the league at 0.11. Big Baby is up there too, so it is no wonder that Paul leads the league in screens received points per chance (0.12).
I know one of the reasons that you support adding DJ is his ability to set solid screens, and that opinion is supported using analytics. |
Yeah, the advantage of a well set screen is that it takes the defense into their next rotation quickly. If the PG can't get over Jordan's screen in time, the Jordan's man either has to show very aggressively, freeing Jordan to roll unmolested, drop back, putting CP3 into a nice shooting pocket, or get help from a third man, opening up all manner of stuff. The Clips also run weak side actions to open cutters and shooters. |
The difference between DJ and Howard setting screens was so abvious last night. I don't think Howard had any actual physical contact on any of his screens. |
DJ is everything we wanted Dwight to be while he was here. Defense, rebound, catch lobs, and for the love of god, set a decent screen |
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kikanga
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| Posted: Thu May 07, 2015 10:54 am Post subject: |
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| GoldenThroat wrote: | | 24 wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | | Are there any APP (Assists per possession) stats for post ups vs P&R roll men? |
Unfortunately, that kind of stuff isn't currently available to the general public. There is, however, a newer stat service Vantage Sports, that is digging really deep into this kind of stuff and is working on a consumer portal, hopefully in the near future.
FWIW, I think the assist comparison would be post men to pick and roll ball handlers, since those are the decision makers in those plays. What I really want to see is PPP off of plays, as in, how much does the average pick and roll generate vs the average post up in total. |
Further to this point, there's only anecdotal evidence about this. Passing off of any play type yields a higher PPP than the actual shot does, with (I believe) the exception of spot up shooting & PnR roll men (basically, the finishers of an action). So a PnR ball-handler yields a higher PPP by passing the ball than shooting the ball himself, and the same is true out of the post.
A couple of findings regarding passing out of the post.
Here are the Top 10 PPP's from passing out of the post from the 2013-14 season.
http://i65.photobucket.com/albums/h231/massinfusion/Screen%20Shot%202015-05-06%20at%204.17.26%20PM_zpsvxzl0sia.png
Then there is this nugget from this article, which was written early in the '13-14 season.
| Quote: | Nene, a willing and skilled passer, produces middling results when moving the ball out of a post-up — he ranks only in the 58th percentile on passes from the post to spot-up shooters.
It’s with players like Nene where the inefficiency of post-ups starts coming to light. Despite ranking worse in the latter category, those passes out to shooters produce a PPP (points per possession) rate of 1.143. In comparison, Nowitzki ranks sixth in the league (minimum of 25 attempts) with a PPP of 1.137, according to the Synergy Sports database. That means Nene, despite a middling effectiveness as a post player, creates better offense simply by passing out of a post-up than the future Hall of Famer does by taking a shot. |
So if Nene's in the 58th percentile with a PPP of 1.143 out of the post, that would mean that the league average would (probably) be in the 1.08-1.10 range on passes out of the post.
That is very solid production. However, passes out of the post don't happen very frequently, because double teams are rarer and rarer. If you'll notice in the picture above (sorry the text is small), the top passers out of the post are only doing it 1-2 times per game. The reason is that simply letting the guy take the shot while staying home with everyone else is a MUCH less productive.
I'll see if I can dig up the passes off of the PnR stats somewhere. These stats are part of the paid services that Synergy and Vantage offer, rather than what's available to the general public. |
Thanks for digging up those stats and sharing.
I've seen PPP being used as proof that post up men are less effective overall than P&R roll men.
That may be the case. But I want to add up the PPP and PPP as passer (APP) of the best post up players and the best P&R roll men. I think that factors in the cumulative value of both play types more accurately.
If I saw stats that showed the PPP + APP of the best P&R roll men are higher than the best post men, I would give up my affinity for post up action.
Other smaller factors that would have to be taken into account as well, is offensive rebounding per play. Do post players have better position to grab offensive rebounds than a P&R roll man? And finally transition defense. Which play type allows for better spacing to stop transition offense if the shot is missed?
Edit: One last thing, Turnovers per possession should be factored in as well for each play type.
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Last edited by kikanga on Thu May 07, 2015 11:05 am; edited 2 times in total |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Thu May 07, 2015 10:57 am Post subject: |
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All this PP and PPP and pee pee, sound like my 3 year old who is potty training for the nighttime.
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kikanga
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| Posted: Thu May 07, 2015 11:04 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | All this PP and PPP and pee pee, sound like my 3 year old who is potty training for the nighttime. |
Didn't you come up with the KKK plan? Was it Kevin Durant, Kevin ollie, and Kevin Love?
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Thu May 07, 2015 11:07 am Post subject: |
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| kikanga wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | All this PP and PPP and pee pee, sound like my 3 year old who is potty training for the nighttime. |
Didn't you come up with the KKK plan? Was it Kevin Durant, Kevin ollie, and Kevin Love? |
Yessir.
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Thu May 07, 2015 11:27 am Post subject: |
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Centers, Offense By Play Type (ranked by PPP)
First number is possessions, second is PPP
Post Up
Brandon Wright 18 1.17
Robin Lopez 63 1.06
Marc Gasol 533 0.95
Brook Lopez 268 0.94
Al Jefferson 659 0.93
Ed Davis 77 0.88
Greg Monroe 478 0.87
Roy Hibbert 418 0.86
Jordan Hill 168 0.82
Chris Kaman 143 0.80
DeAndre Jordan 66 0.74
Cole Aldrich 122 0.70
Kendrick Perkins 63 0.70
Kosta Koufos 75 0.69
Omer Asik 22 0.64
Tyson Chandler No Data
Roll Man
Tyson Chandler 143 1.41
DeAndre Jordan 103 1.36
Robin Lopez 156 1.17
Ed Davis 112 1.09
Brook Lopez 292 1.08
Brandon Wright 66 1.08
Marc Gasol 294 1.02
Al Jefferson 176 0.98
Cole Aldrich 72 0.97
Chris Kaman 138 0.96
Greg Monroe 147 0.93
Omer Asik 109 0.93
Jordan Hill 151 0.85
Kosta Koufos 105 0.84
Roy Hibbert 120 0.81
Kendrick Perkins 59 0.76
Putbacks
Brandon Wright 31 1.32
Marc Gasol 54 1.24
Tyson Chandler 148 1.23
Brook Lopez 167 1.19
Greg Monroe 164 1.19
Ed Davis 153 1.18
Chris Kaman 89 1.18
DeAndre Jordan 232 1.11
Al Jefferson 62 1.11
Cole Aldrich 56 1.11
Jordan Hill 122 1.07
Kosta Koufos 73 0.99
Roy Hibbert 89 0.98
Omer Asik 162 0.94
Robin Lopez 123 0.92
Kendrick Perkins 47 0.83
Cut
DeAndre Jordan 192 1.43
Brook Lopez 194 1.32
Tyson Chandler 164 1.29
Jordan Hill 123 1.18
Greg Monroe 119 1.18
Ed Davis 153 1.15
Marc Gasol 153 1.14
Kosta Koufos 123 1.14
Roy Hibbert 102 1.12
Cole Aldrich 78 1.10
Brandon Wright 61 1.07
Omer Asik 219 1.05
Robin Lopez 134 1.05
Chris Kaman 128 1.05
Al Jefferson 116 0.98
Kendrick Perkins 59 0.88
Spot Up
Roy Hibbert 63 1.05
Robin Lopez 22 1.00
Brandon Wright 16 0.94
Brook Lopez 110 0.89
Marc Gasol 124 0.87
Chris Kaman 93 0.86
Tyson Chandler 12 0.83
Jordan Hill 163 0.76
Kosta Koufos 17 0.71
Greg Monroe 51 0.69
Al Jefferson 57 0.68
Cole Aldrich No Data
DeAndre Jordan No Data
Ed Davis No Data
Kendrick Perkins No Data
Omer Asik No Data
Isolation
Brandon Wright 15 1.07
Marc Gasol 98 0.98
Chris Kaman 21 0.90
Greg Monroe 63 0.86
Brook Lopez 56 0.82
Jordan Hill 99 0.73
Al Jefferson 23 0.57
Roy Hibbert 25 0.32
Cole Aldrich No Data
DeAndre Jordan No Data
Ed Davis No Data
Kendrick Perkins No Data
Kosta Koufos No Data
Omer Asik No Data
Robin Lopez No Data
Tyson Chandler No Data
Transition
Brandon Wright 28 1.50
Ed Davis 53 1.43
DeAndre Jordan 93 1.42
Kosta Koufos 26 1.35
Robin Lopez 17 1.35
Tyson Chandler 73 1.34
Greg Monroe 58 1.33
Al Jefferson 25 1.24
Marc Gasol 68 1.15
Omer Asik 28 1.11
Jordan Hill 50 1.10
Chris Kaman 26 1.04
Roy Hibbert 17 1.00
Cole Aldrich 10 1.00
Kendrick Perkins 12 0.92
Brook Lopez 43 0.86 |
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GoldenThroat
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| Posted: Thu May 07, 2015 11:33 am Post subject: |
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| kikanga wrote: | Thanks for digging up those stats and sharing.
I've seen PPP being used as proof that post up men are less effective overall than P&R roll men.
That may be the case. But I want to add up the PPP and PPP of passer (APP) of the best post up players and the best P&R roll men. I think that factors in the cumulative value of both play types more accurately.
If I saw stats that showed the PPP + APP of the best P&R roll men are higher than the best post men, I would give up my affinity for post up action.
Other smaller factors that would have to be taken into account as well, is offensive rebounding per play. Do post players have better position to grab offensive rebounds than a P&R roll man. And finally transition defense. Which play type allows for better spacing to stop transition offense if the shot is missed. |
I don't think that's quite the correct way to calculate that, FWIW. Reason being, the roll man doesn't have the ball in his hands the way the post guy does. The PnR guard has it instead. I think the heart of your inquiry is how high of a PPP does a post play create as opposed to how high of a PPP does a PnR create. It's a great question that I want the answers to as well.
Unfortunately, the data that's available to the public for free is doesn't include that, so we can only make inferences based off of the snippets that we do get. The fact that Nene was in the 58th percentile in the league with a PPP of 1.14 on post pass outs suggests that the average PPP on that play is 1.10 or so. There's also the data regarding the Top 10 post passers, and how often they make those passes, which are only 2-3 times per game. So if Dwight Howard is tallying an astronomical 1.654 PPP on 1.6 post passes per game, and 0.75 PPP on 8.1 possessions that he uses per game (defined as either a shot/turnover/foul drawn by him), overall he's generating 0.899 PPP, which is still a well below average play. If you take a guy who's relatively good at both posting up and passing out of the post (Marc Gasol), his overall post production comes out to 0.989 PPP.
To put that in perspective, the average PPP for all play types is 1.056 PPP. In simply terms for every 100 possessions the average team gets, they score 105.6 points. Over 100 possessions, even a good post player/passer like Gasol scores you just 98.9 points, which is well below average. And that's just if you want average offensive production. If you want to be a Top 5 team, you're gonna need to be around 110 points per 100 possessions, or 1.10 PPP.
Perhaps the most compelling evidence that post play is usually an inferior play type is much simpler than that. The people who have invested a ton of money in mining this data (which does include passing out of the post, and much more) are posting up less and less. The more information that teams have, the less they're posting up.
Lastly, turnovers & free throw attempts are accounted for in Points Per Possession. Obviously, a turnover is 0.00 PPP, by definition. |
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USCandLakers
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| Posted: Thu May 07, 2015 11:37 am Post subject: |
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Is Pau considered a PF? Is that why he's not making any of those Center lists?
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GoldenThroat
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| Posted: Thu May 07, 2015 11:45 am Post subject: |
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| USCandLakers wrote: | | Is Pau considered a PF? Is that why he's not making any of those Center lists? |
24 and I are collaborating on putting together a comprehensive list of the PPP's for upcoming Free Agents. That's why Pau isn't on there. |
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AY2043
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| Posted: Thu May 07, 2015 11:47 am Post subject: |
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| GoldenThroat wrote: | | USCandLakers wrote: | | Is Pau considered a PF? Is that why he's not making any of those Center lists? |
24 and I are collaborating on putting together a comprehensive list of the PPP's for upcoming Free Agents. That's why Pau isn't on there. |
Ah, ok, I was about to ask why Dwight wasn't on there at all. |
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kikanga
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| Posted: Thu May 07, 2015 11:49 am Post subject: |
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| GoldenThroat wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | Thanks for digging up those stats and sharing.
I've seen PPP being used as proof that post up men are less effective overall than P&R roll men.
That may be the case. But I want to add up the PPP and PPP of passer (APP) of the best post up players and the best P&R roll men. I think that factors in the cumulative value of both play types more accurately.
If I saw stats that showed the PPP + APP of the best P&R roll men are higher than the best post men, I would give up my affinity for post up action.
Other smaller factors that would have to be taken into account as well, is offensive rebounding per play. Do post players have better position to grab offensive rebounds than a P&R roll man. And finally transition defense. Which play type allows for better spacing to stop transition offense if the shot is missed. |
I don't think that's quite the correct way to calculate that, FWIW. Reason being, the roll man doesn't have the ball in his hands the way the post guy does. The PnR guard has it instead. I think the heart of your inquiry is how high of a PPP does a post play create as opposed to how high of a PPP does a PnR create. It's a great question that I want the answers to as well.
Unfortunately, the data that's available to the public for free is doesn't include that, so we can only make inferences based off of the snippets that we do get. The fact that Nene was in the 58th percentile in the league with a PPP of 1.14 on post pass outs suggests that the average PPP on that play is 1.10 or so. There's also the data regarding the Top 10 post passers, and how often they make those passes, which are only 2-3 times per game. So if Dwight Howard is tallying an astronomical 1.654 PPP on 1.6 post passes per game, and 0.75 PPP on 8.1 possessions that he uses per game (defined as either a shot/turnover/foul drawn by him), overall he's generating 0.899 PPP, which is still a well below average play. If you take a guy who's relatively good at both posting up and passing out of the post (Marc Gasol), his overall post production comes out to 0.989 PPP.
To put that in perspective, the average PPP for all play types is 1.056 PPP. In simply terms for every 100 possessions the average team gets, they score 105.6 points. Over 100 possessions, even a good post player/passer like Gasol scores you just 98.9 points, which is well below average. And that's just if you want average offensive production. If you want to be a Top 5 team, you're gonna need to be around 110 points per 100 possessions, or 1.10 PPP.
Perhaps the most compelling evidence that post play is usually an inferior play type is much simpler than that. The people who have invested a ton of money in mining this data (which does include passing out of the post, and much more) are posting up less and less. The more information that teams have, the less they're posting up.
Lastly, turnovers & free throw attempts are accounted for in Points Per Possession. Obviously, a turnover is 0.00 PPP, by definition. |
I have no qualms with your first 3 paragraphs.
The 4th paragraph which correlates usage of play types after analytic research to overall value of the play type itself doesn't quite convince me. I think there is an undeniable analytics wave going throughout the league, but I don't think that in itself proves it is working. I have to see success. A GS, ATL, or HOU championship this year would definitely open my mind. But if CHI, MEM, or WAS wins it, I would have to give credit to their use of post ups in their offense. They "zigged" when it was cool to "zag", and had success doing it.
If a turnover happens during a play type and it directly results in 2-3 points for the other team, it hurts more than just missing the shot (which I assume is 0.00 PPP as well). But I guess that's where defensive metrics come into play. Wonder if defensive stops when analyzed take into account the offensive play ran before playing defense. Oh well.
Offensive rebounds present another dimension as well. If a play type catalyzes more offensive rebounds than another play type. That should be factored in when analyzing effectiveness.
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Thu May 07, 2015 11:54 am Post subject: |
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| 24 wrote: | Centers, Offense By Play Type (ranked by PPP)
First number is possessions, second is PPP
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Robin Lopez shows up much more effective offensively using these numbers than I would have expected.
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kikanga
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| Posted: Thu May 07, 2015 11:55 am Post subject: |
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I got to get access to these in depth analytical stats the league uses but the common man doesn't get to see.
I have a feeling if I was able to see them, most of the things I bring up have already been taken into account. And I'd have a whole different set of questions/factors that I would be wondering about.
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"Every hurt is a lesson, and every lesson makes you better” |
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22
Franchise Player
Joined: 05 Apr 2013
Posts: 17064
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| Posted: Thu May 07, 2015 11:58 am Post subject: |
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Thanks for the numbers on the center FAs guys.
Confirms what I thought about Wright and Davis. |
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yinoma2001
Retired Number
Joined: 19 Jun 2010
Posts: 119487
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| Posted: Thu May 07, 2015 12:00 pm Post subject: |
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| 22 wrote: | Thanks for the numbers on the center FAs guys.
Confirms what I thought about Wright and Davis. |
I guess. But for example, Wright is #1 on PPP on post ups. Only problem? 18 attempts vs. someone like MGasol who had over 500.
As stated, I'll take 1 of them, but wouldn't spend 12m+ for 2 of them.
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From 2-10 to the Western Conference Finals |
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pjiddy
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Joined: 12 Dec 2005
Posts: 29078
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| Posted: Thu May 07, 2015 12:04 pm Post subject: |
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| This is my favorite thread in a while, possibly ever. Thanks for all the great info/write-ups, 24 and GT! |
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kikanga
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Joined: 15 Sep 2012
Posts: 29380
Location: La La Land
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| Posted: Thu May 07, 2015 12:06 pm Post subject: |
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^ Agreed. Great thread 24 and GT.
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