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GoldenThroat
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 5:07 pm    Post subject:

Here is the Nylon Calculus article for Coach K. This also bodes well for Okafor, as Coach K's bigs generally tend to rebound better in the pros, and are usually good passers.



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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 5:38 pm    Post subject:

Isolation Defense

Draymond Green..........0.58 (14.2%)
Khris Middleton............0.60 (13.2%)
Jared Dudley................0.62 (9.6%)
Danny Green...............0.64 (10.4%)
Mike Dunleavy.............0.67 (12.9%)
Paul Pierce..................0.70 (13.9%)
Arron Afflalo................0.70 (9.7%)
Monta Ellis...................0.70 (9.2%)
Iman Shumpert............0.73 (10.6%)
Al-Farouq Aminu...........0.76 (12.8%)
Jae Crowder.................0.77 (10.5%)
Wesley Matthews..........0.78 (8.2%)
Luol Deng....................0.78 (11.6%)
Gerald Henderson.........0.80 (8.0%)
Jimmy Butler................0.84 (8.6%)
Tobias Harris................0.85 (15.5%)
Demarre Carroll............0.87 (9.2%)
Corey Brewer................0.90 (13.2%)
Gerald Green................0.91 (14.2%)
Jeff Green....................0.95 (10.5%)
Kawhi Leonard..............0.95 (9.0%)
JR Smith......................1.00 (8.1%)
Wesley Johnson............1.09 (10.0%)
Marco Belinelli..............1.10 (13.0%)


Last edited by GoldenThroat on Tue May 26, 2015 11:35 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 5:49 pm    Post subject:

I hear your "better version of who they are" argument, but I do think the AAU and then one and done model leaves a lot of guys with a lot more holes than previously, and I've seen enough guys fill in those holes at the pro level, as they get the coaching and experience. A lot of pretty good defensive bigs now were not when they came in.

Like I said, okafor shows me a combination of lack of understanding of how to position himself (which is not IMO a hoop IQ issue because he shows excellent natural awareness on the other end), and a hesitation to get into the fray, which I attribute to both the lack of knowledge and a desire not to pick up fouls. But when I watch him move offensively, and even run the floor, I see a quicker, more agile guy than his defense would suggest. I am also intrigued that he already looks an inch or two taller than the guy who had a 9-3 standing reach, and the medical opinion that he could reach 7-1 to 7-2. With that wingspan, you could be looking at a quicker, longer version of hibbert. With some training, he could at least learn to be a drop back/zone up anchor. Paired with a quick, show and recover guy that Randle could be, that's enough to build a quality defense around. Show him a lot of tape of hibbert and Marc.

Bottom line is I think both of these guys have a very good shot at being special.
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 5:51 pm    Post subject:

Danny green may be the guy you can get. And he may be the best get of the wings.
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 5:53 pm    Post subject:

Fwiw, okafor has the build to set punishing, hard to fight over screens. He is wide, and strong, and when he gets the technique down, he is going to be hard to go around.
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 6:00 pm    Post subject:

Spot Up Shooting Defense

Draymond Green.........0.79 (22.3%)
Wesley Matthews.........0.81 (22.3%)
Arron Afflalo...............0.83 (24.8%)
Corey Brewer..............0.84 (27.8%)
Jae Crowder................0.84 (36.0%)
Iman Shumpert...........0.85 (27.3%)
Khris Middleton...........0.85 (44.2%)
Danny Green..............0.89 (23.2%)
JR Smith....................0.90 (29.7%)
Demarre Carroll..........0.91 (38.7%)
Paul Pierce..................0.95 (32.3%)
Tobias Harris...............0.96 (34.5%)
Luol Deng...................0.99 (34.6%)
Gerald Henderson........0.99 (27.2%)
Jimmy Butler...............0.99 (17.5%)
Kawhi Leonard.............0.99 (26.1%)
Monta Ellis..................1.00 (33.0%)
Jared Dudley................1.02 (33.8%)
Jeff Green...................1.02 (33.8%)
Wesley Johnson...........1.07 (29.4%)
Marco Belinelli.............1.08 (30.8%)
Al-Farouq Aminu..........1.09 (34.4%)
Gerald Green...............1.15 (25.1%)
Jae Crowder.................1.22 (37.5%)


Last edited by GoldenThroat on Tue May 26, 2015 11:33 pm; edited 1 time in total
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GoldenThroat
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 6:03 pm    Post subject:

24 wrote:
I hear your "better version of who they are" argument, but I do think the AAU and then one and done model leaves a lot of guys with a lot more holes than previously, and I've seen enough guys fill in those holes at the pro level, as they get the coaching and experience. A lot of pretty good defensive bigs now were not when they came in.

Like I said, okafor shows me a combination of lack of understanding of how to position himself (which is not IMO a hoop IQ issue because he shows excellent natural awareness on the other end), and a hesitation to get into the fray, which I attribute to both the lack of knowledge and a desire not to pick up fouls. But when I watch him move offensively, and even run the floor, I see a quicker, more agile guy than his defense would suggest. I am also intrigued that he already looks an inch or two taller than the guy who had a 9-3 standing reach, and the medical opinion that he could reach 7-1 to 7-2. With that wingspan, you could be looking at a quicker, longer version of hibbert. With some training, he could at least learn to be a drop back/zone up anchor. Paired with a quick, show and recover guy that Randle could be, that's enough to build a quality defense around. Show him a lot of tape of hibbert and Marc.

Bottom line is I think both of these guys have a very good shot at being special.


Okafor has the tools, no doubt. To put it simply, he'd have to convince me that he cares about it. I feel like that would solve the vast majority of his defensive issues. My observation from watching him this year wasn't that he was lost defensively (like Jabari Parker the year before), but that he didn't give the requisite effort. Whatever the reason was, valid or not, that can't continue. I understand the argument about not wanting to get into foul trouble, but most foul trouble is the result of reaching and taking chances on the ball. He could have still been a good defender without risking foul trouble.
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 6:10 pm    Post subject:

I have a friend with duke connections, so I hit him up on okafor. He says k loved him, but purposely sheltered him on d due to a thin front court (which later led to Winslow at 4).
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 6:11 pm    Post subject:

24 wrote:
I hear your "better version of who they are" argument, but I do think the AAU and then one and done model leaves a lot of guys with a lot more holes than previously, and I've seen enough guys fill in those holes at the pro level, as they get the coaching and experience. A lot of pretty good defensive bigs now were not when they came in.

Like I said, okafor shows me a combination of lack of understanding of how to position himself (which is not IMO a hoop IQ issue because he shows excellent natural awareness on the other end), and a hesitation to get into the fray, which I attribute to both the lack of knowledge and a desire not to pick up fouls. But when I watch him move offensively, and even run the floor, I see a quicker, more agile guy than his defense would suggest. I am also intrigued that he already looks an inch or two taller than the guy who had a 9-3 standing reach, and the medical opinion that he could reach 7-1 to 7-2. With that wingspan, you could be looking at a quicker, longer version of hibbert. With some training, he could at least learn to be a drop back/zone up anchor. Paired with a quick, show and recover guy that Randle could be, that's enough to build a quality defense around. Show him a lot of tape of hibbert and Marc.

Bottom line is I think both of these guys have a very good shot at being special.


I'm optimistic about Okafor's defense too. This footage of him switching on Mudiay and locking him down is encouraging

And he's at a higher weight in that video than he is now. How he gets down in a stance and can move his feet. Looks great.
https://instagram.com/p/2_qqCgKvf8/?taken-by=p3sportscience fastforward to today, his new trim-self moves his feet great.

I'd say he has ALL the tools now to be a good defender (buying in to him having quick feet) , then his elite length. I think he should be projected to be a solid defender.
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GoldenThroat
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 6:12 pm    Post subject:

24 wrote:
I have a friend with duke connections, so I hit him up on okafor. He says k loved him, but purposely sheltered him on d due to a thin front court (which later led to Winslow at 4).


Good stuff, thanks. I buy that Coach K wanted to protect him, but that only goes so far. He's not the first big guy to be really important to his team.


Last edited by GoldenThroat on Tue May 26, 2015 6:13 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 6:13 pm    Post subject:

KeepItRealOrElse wrote:
I'm optimistic about Okafor's defense too. This footage of him switching on Mudiay and locking him down is encouraging

And he's at a higher weight in that video than he is now. How he gets down in a stance and can move his feet. Looks great.
https://instagram.com/p/2_qqCgKvf8/?taken-by=p3sportscience fastforward to today, his new trim-self moves his feet great.

I'd say he has ALL the tools now to be a good defender (buying in to him having quick feet) , then his elite length. I think he should be projected to be a solid defender.


It certainly isn't encouraging for Mudiay.
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 6:15 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
KeepItRealOrElse wrote:
I'm optimistic about Okafor's defense too. This footage of him switching on Mudiay and locking him down is encouraging

And he's at a higher weight in that video than he is now. How he gets down in a stance and can move his feet. Looks great.
https://instagram.com/p/2_qqCgKvf8/?taken-by=p3sportscience fastforward to today, his new trim-self moves his feet great.

I'd say he has ALL the tools now to be a good defender (buying in to him having quick feet) , then his elite length. I think he should be projected to be a solid defender.


It certainly isn't encouraging for Mudiay.


haha that video is awesome
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jonnybravo
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 6:19 pm    Post subject:

KeepItRealOrElse wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
KeepItRealOrElse wrote:
I'm optimistic about Okafor's defense too. This footage of him switching on Mudiay and locking him down is encouraging

And he's at a higher weight in that video than he is now. How he gets down in a stance and can move his feet. Looks great.
https://instagram.com/p/2_qqCgKvf8/?taken-by=p3sportscience fastforward to today, his new trim-self moves his feet great.

I'd say he has ALL the tools now to be a good defender (buying in to him having quick feet) , then his elite length. I think he should be projected to be a solid defender.


It certainly isn't encouraging for Mudiay.


haha that video is awesome


Lol, can't blow pass a 270 pound, 6'11" player on a clear out. Ouch.
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 6:19 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
Spot Up Shooting Defense

Draymond Green.........0.79 (22.3%)
Wesley Matthews.........0.81 (22.3%)
Arron Afflalo...............0.83 (24.8%)
Corey Brewer..............0.84 (27.8%)
Jae Crowder................0.84 (36.0%)
Iman Shumpert...........0.85 (27.3%)
Khris Middleton...........0.85 (44.2%)
Danny Green..............0.89 (23.2%)
JR Smith....................0.90 (29.7%)
Demarre Carroll..........0.91 (38.7%)
Paul Pierce..................0.95 (32.3%)
Tobias Harris...............0.96 (34.5%)
Luol Deng...................0.99 (34.6%)
Gerald Henderson........0.99 (27.2%)
Jimmy Butler...............0.99 (17.5%)
Kawhi Leonard.............0.99 (26.1%)
Jared Dudley................1.02 (33.8%)
Jeff Green...................1.02 (33.8%)
Wesley Johnson...........1.07 (29.4%)
Marco Belinelli.............1.08 (30.8%)
Al-Farouq Aminu..........1.09 (34.4%)
Gerald Green...............1.15 (25.1%)
Jae Crowder.................1.22 (37.5%)


I really wish Wes Mathews didn't tear his achilles, he would have been my #1 tier 2 FA target above Middleton and Danny Green
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GoldenThroat
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 6:26 pm    Post subject:

jonnybravo wrote:
KeepItRealOrElse wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
KeepItRealOrElse wrote:
I'm optimistic about Okafor's defense too. This footage of him switching on Mudiay and locking him down is encouraging

And he's at a higher weight in that video than he is now. How he gets down in a stance and can move his feet. Looks great.
https://instagram.com/p/2_qqCgKvf8/?taken-by=p3sportscience fastforward to today, his new trim-self moves his feet great.

I'd say he has ALL the tools now to be a good defender (buying in to him having quick feet) , then his elite length. I think he should be projected to be a solid defender.


It certainly isn't encouraging for Mudiay.


haha that video is awesome


Lol, can't blow pass a 270 pound, 6'11" player on a clear out. Ouch.


Imagine Okafor on Westbrook or Wall.
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 10:56 pm    Post subject:

Transition Offense

Mike Dunleavy.........1.38 (15.0%) the (bleep)?
Jimmy Butler...........1.35 (16.0%)
Corey Brewer...........1.28 (34.7%)
Al-Farouq Aminu......1.26 (21.0%)
JR Smith.................1.26 (15.8%)
Jared Dudley............1.23 (18.4%)
Luol Deng................1.22 (12.9%)
Khris Middleton.........1.21 (16.9%)
Gerald Henderson.....1.20 (12.3%)
Kawhi Leonard..........1.18 (19.6%)
DeMarre Carroll........1.15 (25.0%)
Draymond Green......1.14 (18.2%)
Jeff Green................1.13 (13.7%)
Iman Shumpert.........1.13 (14.7%)
Danny Green............1.13 (19.0%)
Wesley Matthews.......1.12 (17.1%)
Paul Pierce................1.12 (19.0%)
Wesley Johnson.........1.07 (15.0%)
Tobias Harris.............1.07 (12.9%)
Monta Ellis................1.04 (14.6%)
Gerald Green.............1.02 (18.9%)
Jae Crowder...............0.99 (19.5%)
Arron Afflalo..............0.90 (15.8%)
Marco Belinelli...........0.87 (9.1%)


Last edited by GoldenThroat on Tue May 26, 2015 11:30 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 11:26 pm    Post subject:

Wins Above Replacement

Draymond Green.......14.74
Kawhi Leonard...........12.67
Khris Middleton..........12.44
Danny Green.............10.98
Jimmy Butler..............10.29
Luol Deng....................8.41
Wesley Matthews..........7.55
Monta Ellis...................7.34
Mike Dunleavy..............6.36
Jared Dudley................5.03
JR Smith......................4.35
Al-Farouq Aminu...........4.29
Iman Shumpert............4.04
Gerald Henderson.........3.87
DeMarre Carroll............3.82
Paul Pierce...................3.16
Wesley Johnson............2.15
Jae Crowder.................1.98
Tobias Harris...............-0.26
Marco Belinelli.............-0.65
Arron Afflalo................-0.79
Jeff Green...................-1.88

Side note: Zach Lavine finished with the worst WAR in the league with a -5.36. The second worst WAR in the league belonged to Derrick Williams, at -2.88. That means that there was a bigger gap between #473-474 than there was between #384-473.
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 11:34 pm    Post subject:

If we don't sign one of the max-type FA's, I can see us going after Deng. I remember the Lakers have liked him for a long time. Just a steady vet who is a good guy and great in the room. I'd prefer somebody a little younger, ideally speaking, but Deng would be light years better than Wes Johnson. Which is kind of the most obvious thing ever lol.
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 11:43 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
If we don't sign one of the max-type FA's, I can see us going after Deng. I remember the Lakers have liked him for a long time. Just a steady vet who is a good guy and great in the room. I'd prefer somebody a little younger, ideally speaking, but Deng would be light years better than Wes Johnson. Which is kind of the most obvious thing ever lol.


Ya, I could see that too. Splitting our money between Danny Green & Luol Deng, for example, would give us a good infrastructure for a couple of stars to join in '16 and '17.
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 11:55 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
If we don't sign one of the max-type FA's, I can see us going after Deng. I remember the Lakers have liked him for a long time. Just a steady vet who is a good guy and great in the room. I'd prefer somebody a little younger, ideally speaking, but Deng would be light years better than Wes Johnson. Which is kind of the most obvious thing ever lol.


Ya, I could see that too. Splitting our money between Danny Green & Luol Deng, for example, would give us a good infrastructure for a couple of stars to join in '16 and '17.


Since it's late and maybe I'm not thinking straight, are we able to spend our $22.2MM in cap space and then go over the cap to retain Lin? If no other backup PG emerges that we can sign, I'd like Lin at a reasonable rate. And my next question would be, what type of contract do you think Lin will command? Is he going to be just a 1-year deal type of guy, or will some team give him a multi-year deal? I'm thinking at least two years, but not sure.
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 11:57 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
If we don't sign one of the max-type FA's, I can see us going after Deng. I remember the Lakers have liked him for a long time. Just a steady vet who is a good guy and great in the room. I'd prefer somebody a little younger, ideally speaking, but Deng would be light years better than Wes Johnson. Which is kind of the most obvious thing ever lol.


Ya, I could see that too. Splitting our money between Danny Green & Luol Deng, for example, would give us a good infrastructure for a couple of stars to join in '16 and '17.


Hmm. I really like this idea. Aside from determining who the PG backup will be, such a move would balance out the roster and, as you say, set the table for a pair of big stars to join up in 2016-17.

Clarkson/Vet. minimum signing/Rookie?
Bryant/Young/Brown
Deng/Green
Randle/Kelly
Towns-Okafor/Black/Sacre
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PostPosted: Wed May 27, 2015 12:14 am    Post subject:

Deng would probably start ahead of Randle
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PostPosted: Wed May 27, 2015 12:16 am    Post subject:

Chronicle wrote:
Deng would probably start ahead of Randle


Well, Julius is a 4, and even if you experimented with him being a 3, yeah, Deng would definitely start if he were signed.
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PostPosted: Wed May 27, 2015 12:17 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
If we don't sign one of the max-type FA's, I can see us going after Deng. I remember the Lakers have liked him for a long time. Just a steady vet who is a good guy and great in the room. I'd prefer somebody a little younger, ideally speaking, but Deng would be light years better than Wes Johnson. Which is kind of the most obvious thing ever lol.


Ya, I could see that too. Splitting our money between Danny Green & Luol Deng, for example, would give us a good infrastructure for a couple of stars to join in '16 and '17.


Since it's late and maybe I'm not thinking straight, are we able to spend our $22.2MM in cap space and then go over the cap to retain Lin? If no other backup PG emerges that we can sign, I'd like Lin at a reasonable rate. And my next question would be, what type of contract do you think Lin will command? Is he going to be just a 1-year deal type of guy, or will some team give him a multi-year deal? I'm thinking at least two years, but not sure.


No. We'd have to renounce Lin's cap hold in order to have the $22.2M in cap space, thusly taking away our Bird Rights for him.
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PostPosted: Wed May 27, 2015 12:30 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
Chronicle wrote:
Deng would probably start ahead of Randle


Well, Julius is a 4, and even if you experimented with him being a 3, yeah, Deng would definitely start if he were signed.


Nah I mean if we signed both Deng and Green, they would start at the forward positions and Randle would come off the bench, probably
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