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ChickenStu
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Joined: 25 Apr 2015
Posts: 31943
Location: Anaheim, CA
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 Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 12:31 am Post subject: |
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| GoldenThroat wrote: | | ChickenStu wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: | | ChickenStu wrote: | | If we don't sign one of the max-type FA's, I can see us going after Deng. I remember the Lakers have liked him for a long time. Just a steady vet who is a good guy and great in the room. I'd prefer somebody a little younger, ideally speaking, but Deng would be light years better than Wes Johnson. Which is kind of the most obvious thing ever lol. |
Ya, I could see that too. Splitting our money between Danny Green & Luol Deng, for example, would give us a good infrastructure for a couple of stars to join in '16 and '17. |
Since it's late and maybe I'm not thinking straight, are we able to spend our $22.2MM in cap space and then go over the cap to retain Lin? If no other backup PG emerges that we can sign, I'd like Lin at a reasonable rate. And my next question would be, what type of contract do you think Lin will command? Is he going to be just a 1-year deal type of guy, or will some team give him a multi-year deal? I'm thinking at least two years, but not sure. |
No. We'd have to renounce Lin's cap hold in order to have the $22.2M in cap space, thusly taking away our Bird Rights for him. |
OK that's what I thought but wasn't sure. Good to know. I guess we had to do the same thing last year with Pau; didn't we renounce his rights to free up cap space to get Lin in the first place? In any event, if we don't spend a ton on a max-type FA, I'd be on board with trying to get Cory Joseph for around $5MM a year, give or take a little bit, as I think he's a gamble worth taking. |
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GoldenThroat
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Joined: 25 Jul 2005
Posts: 37474
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| Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 12:36 am Post subject: |
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Isolation Offense
Gerald Green.........0.98 (9.5%)
Al-Farouq Aminu....0.96 (5.0%)
Monta Ellis............0.94 (10.6%)
Kawhi Leonard.......0.93 (9.3%)
Paul Pierce............0.92 (4.7%)
Khris Middleton......0.92 (5.6%)
Wesley Matthews...0.89 (4.3%)
Arron Afflalo..........0.87 (10.7%)
Gerald Henderson...0.82 (9.2%)
Jimmy Butler..........0.81 (9.1%)
DeMarre Carroll......0.80 (2.5%)
JR Smith...............0.78 (12.8%)
Luol Deng.............0.78 (4.4%)
Jeff Green.............0.77 (5.1%)
Danny Green.........0.71 (1.6%)
Tobias Harris.........0.67 (9.0%)
Draymond Green...0.62 (2.6%)
Wesley Johnson.....0.61 (6.9%)
Marco Belinelli.......0.58 (2.1%)
Jae Crowder..........0.58 (4.6%)
Corey Brewer.........0.38 (1.8%) |
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GoldenThroat
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Joined: 25 Jul 2005
Posts: 37474
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| Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 7:27 am Post subject: |
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This is a composite ranking of 6 statistical models that attempt to predict an college player's success in the NBA. The Top 100 and explanations of each model can be found here.
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RCS926
Franchise Player
Joined: 05 Nov 2003
Posts: 16824
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| Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 7:38 am Post subject: |
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So we're looking at guys with large negative numbers in the right-most column as underrated picks. In other words, DX has them ranked lower than they should be if you believe the composite rankings from the statistical models. |
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GoldenThroat
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Joined: 25 Jul 2005
Posts: 37474
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| Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 7:39 am Post subject: |
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| RCS926 wrote: |
So we're looking at guys with large negative numbers in the right-most column as underrated picks. In other words, DX has them ranked lower than they should be if you believe the composite rankings from the statistical models. |
That's correct. If that composite is to be believed, Tyus Jones or Delon Wright would be the best players that would be potentially available at #27. I actually agree with that. I'm a big fan of both. |
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RCS926
Franchise Player
Joined: 05 Nov 2003
Posts: 16824
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| Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 7:42 am Post subject: |
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| GoldenThroat wrote: | | RCS926 wrote: |
So we're looking at guys with large negative numbers in the right-most column as underrated picks. In other words, DX has them ranked lower than they should be if you believe the composite rankings from the statistical models. |
That's correct. If that composite is to be believed, Tyus Jones or Delon Wright would be the best players that would be potentially available at #27. I actually agree with that. I'm a big fan of both. |
Except Tyus Jones is projected to go #11 according to DX. |
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Omar Little
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Joined: 02 May 2005
Posts: 90307
Location: Formerly Known As 24
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| Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 8:08 am Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: | | ChickenStu wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: | | ChickenStu wrote: | | If we don't sign one of the max-type FA's, I can see us going after Deng. I remember the Lakers have liked him for a long time. Just a steady vet who is a good guy and great in the room. I'd prefer somebody a little younger, ideally speaking, but Deng would be light years better than Wes Johnson. Which is kind of the most obvious thing ever lol. |
Ya, I could see that too. Splitting our money between Danny Green & Luol Deng, for example, would give us a good infrastructure for a couple of stars to join in '16 and '17. |
Since it's late and maybe I'm not thinking straight, are we able to spend our $22.2MM in cap space and then go over the cap to retain Lin? If no other backup PG emerges that we can sign, I'd like Lin at a reasonable rate. And my next question would be, what type of contract do you think Lin will command? Is he going to be just a 1-year deal type of guy, or will some team give him a multi-year deal? I'm thinking at least two years, but not sure. |
No. We'd have to renounce Lin's cap hold in order to have the $22.2M in cap space, thusly taking away our Bird Rights for him. |
OK that's what I thought but wasn't sure. Good to know. I guess we had to do the same thing last year with Pau; didn't we renounce his rights to free up cap space to get Lin in the first place? In any event, if we don't spend a ton on a max-type FA, I'd be on board with trying to get Cory Joseph for around $5MM a year, give or take a little bit, as I think he's a gamble worth taking. |
What gt said isn't entirely correct. While we would lose the right to sign lin above the cap through bird rights in order to use cap space by renouncing him, we could still use a lower amount of our cap space on him and give him a five year deal. |
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Dave20
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Joined: 15 Jun 2013
Posts: 11333
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| Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 8:26 am Post subject: |
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This was last years CPR ranking
1Jabari Parker
2 Marcus Smart
3 Andrew Wiggins
4 Noah Vonleh
5 Joel Embiid
6 Tyler Ennis
7 Shabazz Napier
8 Kyle Anderson 2
9 Jordan Adams
10 Julius Randle
18Elfrid Payton
51Jordan Clarkson |
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NomisR
Starting Rotation
Joined: 23 Feb 2012
Posts: 471
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| Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 8:34 am Post subject: |
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So, there's a possibility that Minny might actually pick Russell as #1  |
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22
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Joined: 05 Apr 2013
Posts: 17064
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22
Franchise Player
Joined: 05 Apr 2013
Posts: 17064
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| Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 8:35 am Post subject: |
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| Dave20 wrote: | This was last years CPR ranking
1Jabari Parker
2 Marcus Smart
3 Andrew Wiggins
4 Noah Vonleh
5 Joel Embiid
6 Tyler Ennis
7 Shabazz Napier
8 Kyle Anderson 2
9 Jordan Adams
10 Julius Randle
18Elfrid Payton
51Jordan Clarkson |
Thanks for the perspective from last year's |
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DancingBarry
Editor-in-Chief
Joined: 07 Sep 2001
Posts: 40205
Location: O.C.
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| Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 9:13 am Post subject: |
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| GoldenThroat wrote: | | RCS926 wrote: |
So we're looking at guys with large negative numbers in the right-most column as underrated picks. In other words, DX has them ranked lower than they should be if you believe the composite rankings from the statistical models. |
That's correct. If that composite is to be believed, Tyus Jones or Delon Wright would be the best players that would be potentially available at #27. I actually agree with that. I'm a big fan of both. |
Ditto.
Do we have CPR numbers for this year? I didn't see them. |
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DancingBarry
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Joined: 07 Sep 2001
Posts: 40205
Location: O.C.
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GoldenThroat
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Joined: 25 Jul 2005
Posts: 37474
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| Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 9:23 am Post subject: |
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| The CPR ratings are represented in the "SS" column of those composite rankings, FWIW. |
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DancingBarry
Editor-in-Chief
Joined: 07 Sep 2001
Posts: 40205
Location: O.C.
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| Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 9:35 am Post subject: |
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| Yes, I just wanted to see the raw numbers. |
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22
Franchise Player
Joined: 05 Apr 2013
Posts: 17064
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| Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 9:39 am Post subject: |
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Dang they have Devin Booker in our second round pick range lol.
But DX has him at 13 in their latest mock.
Would be nice if he slipped. I haven't watched him much though. I wonder how his D is |
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GoldenThroat
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Joined: 25 Jul 2005
Posts: 37474
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| Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 12:01 pm Post subject: |
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Pick & Roll Ball Handler
Mike Dunleavy.........1.03 (5.2%)
Kawhi Leonard........0.90 (10.1%)
Jimmy Butler...........0.89 (15.1%)
Wesley Matthews.....0.86 (7.3%)
Tobias Harris...........0.85 (12.8%)
Gerald Green...........0.84 (18.5%)
Monta Ellis..............0.83 (43.7%)
Gerald Henderson....0.82 (23.7%)
JR Smith................0.82 (18.1%)
Luol Deng...............0.78 (5.8%)
Jeff Green...............0.72 (16.0%)
Marco Belinelli.........0.72 (15.4%)
Corey Brewer...........0.70 (3.7%)
Wesley Johnson.......0.70 (12.6%)
Danny Green...........0.70 (6.5%)
DeMarre Carroll.......0.70 (7.5%)
Khris Middleton.......0.65 (9.0%)
Arron Afflalo...........0.62 (6.6%)
Paul Pierce.............0.60 (9.5%)
Iman Shumpert......0.60 (19.4%)
Al-Farouq Aminu.....0.57 (3.0%)
Jae Crowder...........0.55 (5.1%)
Draymond Green....N/A
Jared Dudley..........N/A |
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greenfrog
Retired Number
Joined: 02 Jan 2011
Posts: 36081
Location: 502 Bad Gateway
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| Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 12:19 pm Post subject: |
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| I was interested in Dunleavy already, this just heightens it. I'm guessing 3's as the trailer on the fastbreak is why he's tops in transition offense. Although who knew the Bulls had fastbreaks. |
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GoldenThroat
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Joined: 25 Jul 2005
Posts: 37474
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| Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 12:32 pm Post subject: |
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| greenfrog wrote: | | I was interested in Dunleavy already, this just heightens it. I'm guessing 3's as the trailer on the fastbreak is why he's tops in transition offense. Although who knew the Bulls had fastbreaks. |
Ya, that has to be it. He just wasn't exactly the first name I was expecting. |
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GoldenThroat
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Joined: 25 Jul 2005
Posts: 37474
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| Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 12:55 pm Post subject: |
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Offensive Box Plus/Minus
Jimmy Butler..............4.1
Wesley Matthews........3.8
Danny Green..............2.8
Kawhi Leonard............2.6
DeMarre Carroll..........2.4
Paul Pierce.................1.7
JR Smith....................1.7
Luol Deng..................1.1
Draymond Green.........1.0
Khris Middleton...........0.9
Gerald Green..............0.8
Monta Ellis.................0.7
Mike Dunleavy............0.6
Marco Belinelli............0.6
Tobias Harris..............0.4
Jeff Green..................0.1
Jared Dudley...............0.1
Jae Crowder...............-0.2
Al-Farouq Aminu.........-0.5
Arron Afflalo..............-0.5
Iman Shumpert..........-0.7
Corey Brewer.............-0.8
Wesley Johnson.........-0.9
Gerald Henderson......-1.2 |
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NomisR
Starting Rotation
Joined: 23 Feb 2012
Posts: 471
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| Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 12:55 pm Post subject: |
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| GoldenThroat wrote: | | greenfrog wrote: | | I was interested in Dunleavy already, this just heightens it. I'm guessing 3's as the trailer on the fastbreak is why he's tops in transition offense. Although who knew the Bulls had fastbreaks. |
Ya, that has to be it. He just wasn't exactly the first name I was expecting. |
I don't think Mitch would be into that.. especially if we pick up Okafor.. he would be drafting 2 Duke players and then picking another one up in FA...
But problem is still age though.. rather get a young core together for the long term.. |
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lkjhf
Star Player
Joined: 01 Jun 2012
Posts: 1166
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GoldenThroat
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Joined: 25 Jul 2005
Posts: 37474
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| Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 2:42 pm Post subject: |
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| lkjhf wrote: | http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Analytics-Models-and-the-NBA-Draft-5021
came here to post this but GT was too fast. looks like russell is hot fiyah.
tyus jones+okafor package deal, procure it Mitchell |
YES!  |
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Mini Mamba
Star Player
Joined: 06 May 2013
Posts: 6006
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| Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 2:46 pm Post subject: |
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| NomisR wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: | | greenfrog wrote: | | I was interested in Dunleavy already, this just heightens it. I'm guessing 3's as the trailer on the fastbreak is why he's tops in transition offense. Although who knew the Bulls had fastbreaks. |
Ya, that has to be it. He just wasn't exactly the first name I was expecting. |
I don't think Mitch would be into that.. especially if we pick up Okafor.. he would be drafting 2 Duke players and then picking another one up in FA...
But problem is still age though.. rather get a young core together for the long term.. |
I like Dunleavy. We have to have some veterans on the team. It can't be just Kobe and a bunch of kids. |
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fiendishoc
Star Player
Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 8488
Location: The (real) short corner
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| Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 10:56 pm Post subject: |
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Vantage put out a scouting comparison between Okafor and Towns with some of their custom stats:
http://www.vantagesports.com/story/VWAbmiYAAMkY3uq0/vantage-scouting-report-okafor-vs.-towns
| Quote: | OKAFOR: 1.38 POINTS PER SHOT, 38.3 CONTEST+ FG%, -5.4 DRIBBLE FACTOR
TOWNS: 1.87 POINTS PER SHOT, 44.4 CONTEST+ FG%, +6.2 DRIBBLE FACTOR |
| Quote: | OKAFOR: 10.24 TURNOVERS PER 100 TOUCHES
TOWNS: 5.87 TURNOVERS PER 100 TOUCHES |
| Quote: | OKAFOR: 3.38 ASSIST+ PER 100 CHANCES
TOWNS: 4.24 ASSIST+ PER 100 CHANCES |
| Quote: | OKAFOR: 0.92 POINTS AGAINST PER SHOT, 42.0 OVERALL FG% AGAINST, 2.07 BLOCKS PER 100 CHANCES
TOWNS: 0.74 POINTS AGAINST PER SHOT, 33.2 OVERALL FG% AGAINST, 4.05 BLOCKS PER 100 CHANCES |
| Quote: | OKAFOR: 6.1 POINTS ALLOWED PER 100 HELPS, 30.6 EFFECTIVE HELP RATE
TOWNS: 16.7 POINTS ALLOWED PER 100 HELPS, 19.4 EFFECTIVE HELP RATE |
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