By The Numbers ***The Official Analytics Thread***
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MJST
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 14, 2015 9:53 pm    Post subject:

This stuff wouldn't go forward without Byron knowing or being ok with it.

He even said during his Summer League interview that he's changed his stance on analytics and style of play because of recent successes in the league.

Dunno why THAT quote isn't brought up at all.

I guess because it would make this a positive story and something Byron might be on board with as well. Can't have that though.. so we'll ignore everything he said in his most recent interview from about a week ago and go with what he said in January. That'll work


Anyway, good to hear.


Funny thing is everyone that said Byron was "behind in the times" all over again also likely mentioned/noticed how the Princeton started changing towards a more modern version in the 2nd half of last season, and referenced how many pick and rolls we ran as opposed to earlier.

And THEN we draft Russell which is an obvious show in the direction this team and style is headed.

But throw in 2 bad summer league performances where the majority of the players NOT named Russell are freezing the ball and iso'ing all the time. and suddenly Byron has no clue what he's doing, his style is caveman, he's an idiot, and all this other dribble.

And the fact he says his opinion's changed on analytics and playstyle has changed a bit (he said this in his most recent interview) gets completely glossed over. Just like our playstyle in the last stretch of the season, just like the reason we drafted D'angelo Russell, just like the obvious direction we're headed.

oh well. Glad there was something positive to talk about for at least 2 minutes.
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22
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:14 am    Post subject:

MJST wrote:

But throw in 2 bad summer league performances where the majority of the players NOT named Russell are freezing the ball and iso'ing all the time. and suddenly Byron has no clue what he's doing, his style is caveman, he's an idiot, and all this other dribble.


We've been calling Byron Blockbuster since last season.

It takes him centuries to make any adjustments. Dude is stubborn and tries to force methods that have earned him a losing record as a head coach.
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MJST
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 1:24 pm    Post subject:

22 wrote:
MJST wrote:

But throw in 2 bad summer league performances where the majority of the players NOT named Russell are freezing the ball and iso'ing all the time. and suddenly Byron has no clue what he's doing, his style is caveman, he's an idiot, and all this other dribble.


We've been calling Byron Blockbuster since last season.

It takes him centuries to make any adjustments. Dude is stubborn and tries to force methods that have earned him a losing record as a head coach.

People forgot that we actually made the best defensive jump post all-star break than any other team right?

The fact we were still ranked so low was an example of how BAD defensively we were prior.

But post all-star break we had the best defensive improvement statistically of all the other teams in the league. That was of course after Scott modernized the offense in the back half of the season. Which he also gets no credit for.
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22
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 1:29 pm    Post subject:

MJST wrote:
22 wrote:
MJST wrote:

But throw in 2 bad summer league performances where the majority of the players NOT named Russell are freezing the ball and iso'ing all the time. and suddenly Byron has no clue what he's doing, his style is caveman, he's an idiot, and all this other dribble.


We've been calling Byron Blockbuster since last season.

It takes him centuries to make any adjustments. Dude is stubborn and tries to force methods that have earned him a losing record as a head coach.

People forgot that we actually made the best defensive jump post all-star break than any other team right?

The fact we were still ranked so low was an example of how BAD defensively we were prior.

But post all-star break we had the best defensive improvement statistically of all the other teams in the league. That was of course after Scott modernized the offense in the back half of the season. Which he also gets no credit for.


Which is a by product of us having the most room to improve as a team. Just the fact that we were a historically bad defense with Byron at the helm should you something. He had guys like Boozer and Hill trying to hedge PnR hard even though move like they're in quicksand.

I don't give him any credit from going from #30 to #29. The mistakes he made were obvious to amateurs like me
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AIRZOOMKOBE2k5
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 4:09 pm    Post subject:

What's worse is that all these analytic naysayers are more ignorant than anything. You can hear it a lot from former players like Byron and chuck. They feel since they've actually played the game, they're above analytics.

And chuck wonders why he didn't get a GM job offer when his TNT contract was up.
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MJST
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 7:05 pm    Post subject:

22 wrote:
MJST wrote:
22 wrote:
MJST wrote:

But throw in 2 bad summer league performances where the majority of the players NOT named Russell are freezing the ball and iso'ing all the time. and suddenly Byron has no clue what he's doing, his style is caveman, he's an idiot, and all this other dribble.


We've been calling Byron Blockbuster since last season.

It takes him centuries to make any adjustments. Dude is stubborn and tries to force methods that have earned him a losing record as a head coach.

People forgot that we actually made the best defensive jump post all-star break than any other team right?

The fact we were still ranked so low was an example of how BAD defensively we were prior.

But post all-star break we had the best defensive improvement statistically of all the other teams in the league. That was of course after Scott modernized the offense in the back half of the season. Which he also gets no credit for.


Which is a by product of us having the most room to improve as a team.


yeah, but we always couldn't have improved at all.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:15 pm    Post subject:

I tracked the PnRs involving Russell in the 2nd half, when we ran a lot more two-man game and Horns sets. This is what I found.

Total PnR attempts w/Russell.....18
Shots Attempted......................10
Turnovers.................................2
Points.....................................14
Points Per Possession Used......1.17
Open Shots...............................8

Total PnRs

Russell/Randle.......9
Russell/Black.........7
Russell/Upshaw......1
Russell/Nance........1

Shots Attempted off of PnR Action

Russell/Randle.......5
Russell/Black.........4
Russell/Nance........1
Russell/Upshaw......0

Points Per Possession

Russell/Randle.....1.40
Russell/Black.......1.17
Russell/Nance......0.00
Russell/Upshaw....N/A
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:25 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
I tracked the PnRs involving Russell in the 2nd half, when we ran a lot more two-man game and Horns sets. This is what I found.

Total PnR attempts w/Russell.....18
Shots Attempted......................10
Turnovers.................................2
Points.....................................14
Points Per Possession Used......1.17
Open Shots...............................8

Total PnRs

Russell/Randle.......9
Russell/Black.........7
Russell/Upshaw......1
Russell/Nance........1

Shots Attempted off of PnR Action

Russell/Randle.......5
Russell/Black.........4
Russell/Nance........1
Russell/Upshaw......0

Points Per Possession

Russell/Randle.....1.40
Russell/Black.......1.17
Russell/Nance......0.00
Russell/Upshaw....N/A


That's pretty good, no?
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GoldenThroat
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:28 pm    Post subject:

RG73 wrote:
That's pretty good, no?


Yes. The average half court possession yields around 1.04 PPP. That's lower in the Summer League, I'm sure. We scored 48 points in the 2nd half, BTW.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:31 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
I tracked the PnRs involving Russell in the 2nd half, when we ran a lot more two-man game and Horns sets. This is what I found.

Total PnR attempts w/Russell.....18
Shots Attempted......................10
Turnovers.................................2
Points.....................................14
Points Per Possession Used......1.17
Open Shots...............................8

Total PnRs

Russell/Randle.......9
Russell/Black.........7
Russell/Upshaw......1
Russell/Nance........1

Shots Attempted off of PnR Action

Russell/Randle.......5
Russell/Black.........4
Russell/Nance........1
Russell/Upshaw......0

Points Per Possession

Russell/Randle.....1.40
Russell/Black.......1.17
Russell/Nance......0.00
Russell/Upshaw....N/A


Pretty obvious what Russell's strength is in the half court. Him and Clarkson need to be milking PnR a lot this season. Once Randle learns to set better screens and to roll more often it can be a bread and butter of D-Lo and Jules.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:50 pm    Post subject:

I'd also add that within that 1.17 PPP creation on 12 plays used, Russell's box score stats on those plays were 0 points, 2 assists, & 1 turnover on 0-0 shooting.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2015 9:25 am    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
RG73 wrote:
That's pretty good, no?


Yes. The average half court possession yields around 1.04 PPP. That's lower in the Summer League, I'm sure. We scored 48 points in the 2nd half, BTW.


it's obvious that the Princeton needs to be dropped in favor of a more free flowing, PnR offense that takes every opportunity get out in transition
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2015 11:12 am    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
I tracked the PnRs involving Russell in the 2nd half, when we ran a lot more two-man game and Horns sets. This is what I found.

Total PnR attempts w/Russell.....18
Shots Attempted......................10
Turnovers.................................2
Points.....................................14
Points Per Possession Used......1.17
Open Shots...............................8

Total PnRs

Russell/Randle.......9
Russell/Black.........7
Russell/Upshaw......1
Russell/Nance........1

Shots Attempted off of PnR Action

Russell/Randle.......5
Russell/Black.........4
Russell/Nance........1
Russell/Upshaw......0

Points Per Possession

Russell/Randle.....1.40
Russell/Black.......1.17
Russell/Nance......0.00
Russell/Upshaw....N/A


there was a beautiful play that developed from a russell/randle PnR with clarkson spacing in the corner (https://youtu.be/DZgQgyjVXsM?t=1m21s) - that sequence made me salivate at the possibility of watching these three kids grow together as a group.

I'm also a LOT more impressed with Upshaw this summer than I thought I would be and would like to see some Russell/Upshaw pick and pop - Upshaw's stroke from range is nice. He also sets strong screens, and most importantly, is running the court HARD which makes me want to reward him and involve him in the offense more (his motor was was my primary concern). I remember a particular sequence where he sprinted back on defense to try and slow a dallas transition opportunity, then as soon as possession changed hands he sprinted back the other way and beat everyone down the court to the low block. Was very happy with that.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2015 12:09 pm    Post subject:

44TheLogo wrote:
there was a beautiful play that developed from a russell/randle PnR with clarkson spacing in the corner (https://youtu.be/DZgQgyjVXsM?t=1m21s) - that sequence made me salivate at the possibility of watching these three kids grow together as a group.

I'm also a LOT more impressed with Upshaw this summer than I thought I would be and would like to see some Russell/Upshaw pick and pop - Upshaw's stroke from range is nice. He also sets strong screens, and most importantly, is running the court HARD which makes me want to reward him and involve him in the offense more (his motor was was my primary concern). I remember a particular sequence where he sprinted back on defense to try and slow a dallas transition opportunity, then as soon as possession changed hands he sprinted back the other way and beat everyone down the court to the low block. Was very happy with that.


I was also impressed with Upshaw's hustle. He sprints to his screens, which is an underrated skill that gets guys open due to the separation he gets from his defender. That pick & pop is there if we want it, and if he can knock that shot down. Haven't seen them go to it yet though.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2015 12:16 pm    Post subject:

22 wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
RG73 wrote:
That's pretty good, no?


Yes. The average half court possession yields around 1.04 PPP. That's lower in the Summer League, I'm sure. We scored 48 points in the 2nd half, BTW.


it's obvious that the Princeton needs to be dropped in favor of a more free flowing, PnR offense that takes every opportunity get out in transition


Hopefully our coaching staff is adept enough to recognize this.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 17, 2015 6:50 am    Post subject:

Potential defensive concerns for SAS and Aldridge

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/07/17/do-the-pieces-fit-lets-not-crown-the-san-antonio-spurs-prematurely/
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 17, 2015 6:58 am    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
RG73 wrote:
That's pretty good, no?


Yes. The average half court possession yields around 1.04 PPP. That's lower in the Summer League, I'm sure. We scored 48 points in the 2nd half, BTW.


That average 1.04 PPP in the half court sounds kind of high to me, when you figure that transition should be a lot higher. Where did you see that figure from?
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 17, 2015 7:05 am    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
I'd also add that within that 1.17 PPP creation on 12 plays used, Russell's box score stats on those plays were 0 points, 2 assists, & 1 turnover on 0-0 shooting.


Glad someone broke this down. That Randle/Russell combo looked especially potent. Could have been even better than the 1.40 had Randle finished some easy And-1s.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 17, 2015 9:31 am    Post subject:

fiendishoc wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
RG73 wrote:
That's pretty good, no?


Yes. The average half court possession yields around 1.04 PPP. That's lower in the Summer League, I'm sure. We scored 48 points in the 2nd half, BTW.


That average 1.04 PPP in the half court sounds kind of high to me, when you figure that transition should be a lot higher. Where did you see that figure from?


I believe 1.04 is the overall average, including transition.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 17, 2015 9:51 am    Post subject:

PhoenixForce wrote:

Pretty obvious what Russell's strength is in the half court. Him and Clarkson need to be milking PnR a lot this season. Once Randle learns to set better screens and to roll more often it can be a bread and butter of D-Lo and Jules.


Actually, watching the DAL game, there were 2 or 3 JR/DLo P/R instances where Russell went too soon. Randle was still coming over to set the pick, but Russell went before Randle was set. If Randle tries to make up for that extra space by forcing the contact with DLo's defender, he'd get called for a moving screen.

DLo's gotta be more patient on those screens and wait for Jules to be set before he goes.
But with DLo's IQ, that should be an easy adjustment for him.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 17, 2015 9:53 am    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
there was a beautiful play that developed from a russell/randle PnR with clarkson spacing in the corner (https://youtu.be/DZgQgyjVXsM?t=1m21s) - that sequence made me salivate at the possibility of watching these three kids grow together as a group.

I'm also a LOT more impressed with Upshaw this summer than I thought I would be and would like to see some Russell/Upshaw pick and pop - Upshaw's stroke from range is nice. He also sets strong screens, and most importantly, is running the court HARD which makes me want to reward him and involve him in the offense more (his motor was was my primary concern). I remember a particular sequence where he sprinted back on defense to try and slow a dallas transition opportunity, then as soon as possession changed hands he sprinted back the other way and beat everyone down the court to the low block. Was very happy with that.


I was also impressed with Upshaw's hustle. He sprints to his screens, which is an underrated skill that gets guys open due to the separation he gets from his defender. That pick & pop is there if we want it, and if he can knock that shot down. Haven't seen them go to it yet though.


Upshaw usually sets a pretty good screen, and I see Randle improving in that area as well.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 17, 2015 10:13 am    Post subject:

24 wrote:
fiendishoc wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
RG73 wrote:
That's pretty good, no?


Yes. The average half court possession yields around 1.04 PPP. That's lower in the Summer League, I'm sure. We scored 48 points in the 2nd half, BTW.


That average 1.04 PPP in the half court sounds kind of high to me, when you figure that transition should be a lot higher. Where did you see that figure from?


I believe 1.04 is the overall average, including transition.


It is my mistake. I took it from this article, which states that the Clippers' average PPP in the half court is 1.04, which is higher than your average team. I misread it as being the league average. My mistake.

The league average PPP on all plays is 1.056, per basketball-reference.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 17, 2015 11:49 am    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
I'd also add that within that 1.17 PPP creation on 12 plays used, Russell's box score stats on those plays were 0 points, 2 assists, & 1 turnover on 0-0 shooting.


Is there any way to track how many P&R's Clarkson was in too? He has a killer mid-range jumper and I'm wondering if P&R is as lethal when he's involved.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 17, 2015 11:51 am    Post subject:

Nothing taken alone is magic... You need to combine a solid scheme with good coaching, analytics, non-analytics (), training, practice, etc. But you need to use whatever that can help you... And extra information will never ever hurt.

I think Scott is just too stubborn. He wants to win his way as opposed to just win, however that may be. Heck, I'm old school but I'm educating myself with the analytics after gt and 24 slapped me around and we drafted Russell... Change is change. Nobody cares if you like it or not. But you better keep up or it will leave you behind.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 17, 2015 11:53 am    Post subject:

DzLaker wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
I'd also add that within that 1.17 PPP creation on 12 plays used, Russell's box score stats on those plays were 0 points, 2 assists, & 1 turnover on 0-0 shooting.


Is there any way to track how many P&R's Clarkson was in too? He has a killer mid-range jumper and I'm wondering if P&R is as lethal when he's involved.


I'll do some play tracking during the regular season. I thought Clarkson was better in the PnR last year than he was during the SL, but the SL is a totally different animal so I don't worry about that.

I'm gonna try to use this upcoming NBA season to try out some play/player tracking techniques that I can apply to High School ball when I get back into that the following year, so I plan on doing some fairly extensive stuff with tracking the Lakers. This is pretty much my only hobby.
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