FiveThirtyEight.com: Lebron Most Clutch Shooter, Kobe Least Clutch Shooter
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kikanga
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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 4:02 pm    Post subject: FiveThirtyEight.com: Lebron Most Clutch Shooter, Kobe Least Clutch Shooter

https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/lebron-may-be-the-most-clutch-playoff-shooter-of-his-generation/

I didn't read the article, just looked at the diagram. I knew that would be all that mattered.

Well any list that says Rashard Lewis and Turkoglu are 2 of the 5 most clutch players in the last 15 years must be right.

Immediate problems I see with this "research".

1) Some players have a sample size of 1 or 2 shots. Some have a sample size of 10.
2) If you hit a go ahead basket with 6 seconds or more left on the final clock, it's not clutch. Even if its a game-winner.
3) Free throws don't count as clutch.
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ocho
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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 4:18 pm    Post subject:

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dont_be_a_wuss
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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 4:42 pm    Post subject:

Passing the ball to a scrub who misses at the buzzer because you are afraid to take the shot, also should count as a miss.
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Omar Little
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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 4:51 pm    Post subject:

dont_be_a_wuss wrote:
Passing the ball to a scrub who misses at the buzzer because you are afraid to take the shot, also should count as a miss.


As should passing the ball to a teammate because you are triple teamed and he makes it. How do you think guys like horry, and Fox, and Fisher, and MWP made big shots?
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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 4:57 pm    Post subject:

Kobe had a game winning shot, game winning assist, game winning block and game clinching put back in the biggest series in their sport. At 21. Define clutch? Is it just buzz beaters? How bout 5-2 in the Finals or 2-3? This whole comparison thing is stupid and a waste of life.

Kobe had 7 game winning shots in one freakin season. In 2010. ESPN made a montage of it. Saying he is the least clutch is stupid and you are a (bleep) idiot if you say it.
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Omar Little
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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 4:59 pm    Post subject:

Another line of thought is that Kobe put more teams away more often that he didn't need late buzzer beaters to win?
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KobeBryantCliffordBrown
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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 5:17 pm    Post subject:

ocho wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujuQheviI7U

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lakers0505
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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 6:26 pm    Post subject:

KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
ocho wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujuQheviI7U


winning
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venturalakersfan
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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 6:36 pm    Post subject:

The article made a good point, you don't have to be one of the best players ever to be clutch.
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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 6:41 pm    Post subject:

It's all bogus. We've had like 5 buzzer beaters in 2 rounds of playoffs. Buzzer beaters used to be rare, like in MJ's time. So it makes sense that players now are hitting more clutch shots if the games tend to be closer at the end. MJ didn't hit more clutch shots...NOT because he couldn't...but because those situations were not as common as it is now. but the articles will not bring these things up.
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venturalakersfan
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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 6:43 pm    Post subject:

I think something as simple as reading how many attempts each player had gives one a good idea of how common clutch shots were for each player.
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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 6:47 pm    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
The article made a good point, you don't have to be one of the best players ever to be clutch.


The only point that article made was, you don't have be clutch to be clutch.
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vanexelent
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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 7:08 pm    Post subject:

Clutch is outscoring an entire team by the 3rd quarter, all by yourself and then sitting out the rest of the game.
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dont_be_a_wuss
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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 7:09 pm    Post subject:

I feel like these guys add all the numbers to excel, and then run a goal seek to find the parameters to make LeBron look best and kobe look worst.
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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 7:34 pm    Post subject:

dont_be_a_wuss wrote:
I feel like these guys add all the numbers to excel, and then run a goal seek to find the parameters to make LeBron look best and kobe look worst.


ya, pretty much.

They will find sone random stats like Lebron is 1-0 in clutch situation when play more than 42 minutes and 33 seconds.
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laker4life
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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 7:39 pm    Post subject:

Who cares.

Kobe has 5 rings, including one against the hated Celtics.

Kobe also played in 2 more finals where the Lakers did not win.

Kobe is a winner
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activeverb
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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 7:41 pm    Post subject: Re: FiveThirtyEight.com: Lebron Most Clutch Shooter, Kobe Least Clutch Shooter

kikanga wrote:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/lebron-may-be-the-most-clutch-playoff-shooter-of-his-generation/

I didn't read the article, just looked at the diagram. I knew that would be all that mattered.

Well any list that says Rashard Lewis and Turkoglu are 2 of the 5 most clutch players in the last 15 years must be right.

Immediate problems I see with this "research".

1) Some players have a sample size of 1 or 2 shots. Some have a sample size of 10.
2) If you hit a go ahead basket with 6 seconds or more left on the final clock, it's not clutch. Even if its a game-winner.
3) Free throws don't count as clutch.


People have trouble agreeing what "clutch" means; I've never seen any statistical formula that captures clutch in a compelling way.

The stats are what they way: a compilation of go-ahead shots in the last 5 seconds of playoff games. I just think the writer of the article went overboard in giving the stats a significance they don't possess.

dont_be_a_wuss wrote:
I feel like these guys add all the numbers to excel, and then run a goal seek to find the parameters to make LeBron look best and kobe look worst.


I think these guys come up with a formula they think is good, and then the results are whatever the results are. I don't think this formula was created with any agenda to produce a certain outcome. I
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venturalakersfan
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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 7:45 pm    Post subject:

Jackobe wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
The article made a good point, you don't have to be one of the best players ever to be clutch.


The only point that article made was, you don't have be clutch to be clutch.


It gives more weight to being clutch in bigger games compared to being clutch in lesser games. That is where some ambiguity comes in, how much weight on a game 7 over a game 1?
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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 7:55 pm    Post subject:

lol @ all these clutch talks.

such a stupid discussion.
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dont_be_a_wuss
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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 8:06 pm    Post subject: Re: FiveThirtyEight.com: Lebron Most Clutch Shooter, Kobe Least Clutch Shooter

activeverb wrote:
dont_be_a_wuss wrote:
I feel like these guys add all the numbers to excel, and then run a goal seek to find the parameters to make LeBron look best and kobe look worst.


I think these guys come up with a formula they think is good, and then the results are whatever the results are. I don't think this formula was created with any agenda to produce a certain outcome. I


Its only human. We are doing it now in this thread, trying to figure out the formula to really show Kobe is clutch.

How do they decide the formula should use 6 seconds? Maybe thats one of the variables they adjusted to see how the results looked under different conditions.
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activeverb
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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 8:13 pm    Post subject: Re: FiveThirtyEight.com: Lebron Most Clutch Shooter, Kobe Least Clutch Shooter

dont_be_a_wuss wrote:
activeverb wrote:
dont_be_a_wuss wrote:
I feel like these guys add all the numbers to excel, and then run a goal seek to find the parameters to make LeBron look best and kobe look worst.


I think these guys come up with a formula they think is good, and then the results are whatever the results are. I don't think this formula was created with any agenda to produce a certain outcome. I


Its only human. We are doing it now in this thread, trying to figure out the formula to really show Kobe is clutch.

How do they decide the formula should use 6 seconds? Maybe thats one of the variables they adjusted to see how the results looked under different conditions.



The formula used 5 seconds. I suspect he used it because his formula was about end-of-game shots, not clutch per se. And 5 seconds is a tidy number to put into a formula like this.

I don't have your belief that he tinkered with different seconds to make some players look better and some look worst.
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Treble Clef
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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 8:33 pm    Post subject:

Two things immediately jump out about this.

The stats in this were strangely assembled.

Kobe's late game shot selection is horrible so of course the percentage wont be high. There is never any imagination to the plays, it is get Kobe the ball and get out of his way. That is the hardest shot in basketball.
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PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2015 9:08 pm    Post subject:

lakers0505 wrote:
KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
ocho wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujuQheviI7U


winning


Damn, that's a fantastic find. Glad it was recorded.
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PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 5:48 am    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
The article made a good point, you don't have to be one of the best players ever to be clutch.


There's a difference between being lucky and being clutch.

Making a couple of game winners in your career doesn't make you clutch.
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boykins52
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PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 9:57 pm    Post subject:

What's Kobe's percentage on game winners? Like 20%? He jacks up the stupidest shots, man. Pisses me off.
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