FiveThirtyEight.com: Lebron Most Clutch Shooter, Kobe Least Clutch Shooter
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activeverb
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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2015 9:17 pm    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
activeverb wrote:
Telleris wrote:
activeverb wrote:
ringfinger wrote:


I'm not a huge fan of using formula either. Frankly, it's a case-by-case thing for me. Jerry West's 60-foot prayer was not a clutch shot. It was a made shot by a clutch player yes, but that's different than a clutch shot.

I also think there is a big distinction between being not being clutch and being unclutch.

Maybe the most objective (and interesting) measure for clutchness, is if you could measure the physiological reaction of opposing fans when a particular opposing player has the ball. The more intense the reaction of fear/doubt/worry, the more clutch that player shall be considered. Ha.


It's easy to decide if one particular moment is clutch. However, separating a single "clutch play" from a "clutch player" requires you to analyze the player's performance in every clutch moment.

I don't think there's an objective way to do that. Heck, I don't even think people can define clutch, and if you can't even define something how can you try to measure it?

Your physiological reaction experiment brings up another point: It shows how 'clutch that player shall be considered.' " But that doesn't automatically mean the player is more clutch. That's why measurement is important -- it separates what actually happens from perceptions.


If you isolate down to individual plays, if you move the same play to other points of the game and simply replace the game clock with the shot clock, there's no notable variance in a given shot. Other than the distinction that a bad shot becomes the increasingly better option the closer to the alternative being no shot, the outcome and quality of shot will stay pretty stable (if you can get off a shot with a decent chance to go in, in 2 seconds or less through self creation, you may seem clutch, what you really are is an elite shot creator relative to one's ability to shoot said shot [extreme example - wide open 12 footer for DeAndre Jordan isn't a good shot]).

Most nba players, say over 95% don't really seem to be chokers in that their shot doesn't evaporate based on time, but their ability to create one they can make can plummet under increased defensive attention, that's where the stars really shine. Ergo what we think we're measuring is actually something else entirely.


I agree that being clutch is as much being able to get off a tough shot, as anything else. I just don't know how you realistically measure that. And ultimately, that may not matter. Clutch is one of those things that fall into the category of: I believe it because I believe and that's enough, and to heck with you if you think differently than I do.


Yeah. I actually think there may be two types of clutch. Mathematically clutch (an index of various statistics) and Perceptibly clutch (a measure of the feeling of fear in opponents' fans and a measure of trust and confidence in fans).

The mathematical clutch factor may perhaps, not favor Kobe. He has missed or turned the ball over on many, many an occasion (especially so in recent years). That said, back in his prime, when we needed a bucket, whether it was in a clutch situation or we had simply gone cold, I often remember muttering "just give it to Kobe" because whether it was mathematically justified or not, I held trust and confidence in his ability to get whatever we needed done. And with a number of friends who are not Lakers fans, I can tell you their anxiety went way up with the ball in Kobe's hands on a critical play.

That idea about being able to make "bad shots" actually makes a lot of sense. Many clutch situations have to occur in straight ISO situations (a "bad" offensive set). And sometimes, all you have time for is a catch and shoot (that would ordinarily be considered a "bad" possession since you would never just catch, and then immediately shoot).

Perhaps the math doesn't favor Kobe, and that would make sense because often times he would just take it on his own and take shots you normally wouldn't want any player to make. So maybe, just maybe, we can't say he isn't mathematically clutch, but if there was a way to measure "impossible" shots made, Kobe would have to be up there even mathematically. And maybe it's that, that we're thinking of when we consider Kobe to be clutch. Few people have made as many "impossible" shots as Kobe. Now whether those impossible scenarios were necessary or not is a totally different story.


Kobe certainly takes and makes a lot of tough shots. But then he takes and misses a lot of tough shots too.

Some people will say his just being able to get off a shot in these situations is clutch, even if the shot misses. Others will say that the circus shots are outweighed by the many bad shots that don't go in.

Ultimately, I don't think there is an answer, and a lot of people who bother to engage in his discussion are just those who like to line up on the battle line in support of or against Kobe and Lebron no matter what the topic.

And I think that generally happens with the topic of clutch too. I find cery few people have a thought-out definition of clutch, or a way of determining what clutch is beyond "I know it when I see it." They just tend to like or dislike a certain player, and their like or dislike governs whether they think someone is clutch or not.
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Sun May 24, 2015 8:00 pm    Post subject:

Lebron was ridiculous in game 3 ECF today. Struggled early, but kept dishing it until he got his rhythm back and then scored the last 5 pts to win by 3. He is really carrying that team. I used to hate Lebron but I can't deny how ridiculous he is out there. One man machine.
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PostPosted: Sun May 24, 2015 8:24 pm    Post subject:

The Hawks beat themselves today.
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PostPosted: Sun May 24, 2015 8:26 pm    Post subject:

(bleep) lebron hope he gets swept by GSW
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PostPosted: Sun May 24, 2015 10:19 pm    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
Lebron was ridiculous in game 3 ECF today. Struggled early, but kept dishing it until he got his rhythm back and then scored the last 5 pts to win by 3. He is really carrying that team. I used to hate Lebron but I can't deny how ridiculous he is out there. One man machine.



Yeah, he was amazing tonight. He pulled a Kobe on em. When he missed that baseline two and the ball came back to him for the three, I knew it was going to go in, and when he had his man isolated on the perimeter for the game clincher, I knew he was going to score. Great scorers just can't be denied in crunch situations. And he started 0-10 and kept shooting, that's what I loved about his performance.
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PostPosted: Sun May 24, 2015 10:44 pm    Post subject:

KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Lebron was ridiculous in game 3 ECF today. Struggled early, but kept dishing it until he got his rhythm back and then scored the last 5 pts to win by 3. He is really carrying that team. I used to hate Lebron but I can't deny how ridiculous he is out there. One man machine.



Yeah, he was amazing tonight. He pulled a Kobe on em. When he missed that baseline two and the ball came back to him for the three, I knew it was going to go in, and when he had his man isolated on the perimeter for the game clincher, I knew he was going to score. Great scorers just can't be denied in crunch situations. And he started 0-10 and kept shooting, that's what I loved about his performance.


Amen.
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PostPosted: Sun May 24, 2015 10:50 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Lebron was ridiculous in game 3 ECF today. Struggled early, but kept dishing it until he got his rhythm back and then scored the last 5 pts to win by 3. He is really carrying that team. I used to hate Lebron but I can't deny how ridiculous he is out there. One man machine.



Yeah, he was amazing tonight. He pulled a Kobe on em. When he missed that baseline two and the ball came back to him for the three, I knew it was going to go in, and when he had his man isolated on the perimeter for the game clincher, I knew he was going to score. Great scorers just can't be denied in crunch situations. And he started 0-10 and kept shooting, that's what I loved about his performance.


Amen.



And he shot 14-37 in his second most impressive playoff performance ever IMO. He's spent his career worried about shooting 50% and the metric geeks have been all over his FG% being so high, but tonight, he was transcendent despite shooting 38% from the field.
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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2015 11:31 am    Post subject:

KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Lebron was ridiculous in game 3 ECF today. Struggled early, but kept dishing it until he got his rhythm back and then scored the last 5 pts to win by 3. He is really carrying that team. I used to hate Lebron but I can't deny how ridiculous he is out there. One man machine.



Yeah, he was amazing tonight. He pulled a Kobe on em. When he missed that baseline two and the ball came back to him for the three, I knew it was going to go in, and when he had his man isolated on the perimeter for the game clincher, I knew he was going to score. Great scorers just can't be denied in crunch situations. And he started 0-10 and kept shooting, that's what I loved about his performance.


Amen.



And he shot 14-37 in his second most impressive playoff performance ever IMO. He's spent his career worried about shooting 50% and the metric geeks have been all over his FG% being so high, but tonight, he was transcendent despite shooting 38% from the field.


Yes and no. Shooting-wise and gutting it out wise, a similarity. Everything else-wise, not really. Kobe has never recorded a triple double in the post season and never ever one THAT impressive--though to be fair, this was with overtime and ATL had their best player, two starters altogether and a major rotation player not playing.
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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2015 3:12 pm    Post subject:

ribeye wrote:
KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Lebron was ridiculous in game 3 ECF today. Struggled early, but kept dishing it until he got his rhythm back and then scored the last 5 pts to win by 3. He is really carrying that team. I used to hate Lebron but I can't deny how ridiculous he is out there. One man machine.



Yeah, he was amazing tonight. He pulled a Kobe on em. When he missed that baseline two and the ball came back to him for the three, I knew it was going to go in, and when he had his man isolated on the perimeter for the game clincher, I knew he was going to score. Great scorers just can't be denied in crunch situations. And he started 0-10 and kept shooting, that's what I loved about his performance.


Amen.



And he shot 14-37 in his second most impressive playoff performance ever IMO. He's spent his career worried about shooting 50% and the metric geeks have been all over his FG% being so high, but tonight, he was transcendent despite shooting 38% from the field.


Yes and no. Shooting-wise and gutting it out wise, a similarity. Everything else-wise, not really. Kobe has never recorded a triple double in the post season and never ever one THAT impressive--though to be fair, this was with overtime and ATL had their best player, two starters altogether and a major rotation player not playing.


The Eastern Conference playoffs are the JV tournament. We're watching two teams who would have likely been knocked out in the 1st Round in the West. I give LeBron his due, but he basically gets to wait until the Finals every year before he plays a really good team.
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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2015 8:49 pm    Post subject:

ribeye wrote:
KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Lebron was ridiculous in game 3 ECF today. Struggled early, but kept dishing it until he got his rhythm back and then scored the last 5 pts to win by 3. He is really carrying that team. I used to hate Lebron but I can't deny how ridiculous he is out there. One man machine.



Yeah, he was amazing tonight. He pulled a Kobe on em. When he missed that baseline two and the ball came back to him for the three, I knew it was going to go in, and when he had his man isolated on the perimeter for the game clincher, I knew he was going to score. Great scorers just can't be denied in crunch situations. And he started 0-10 and kept shooting, that's what I loved about his performance.


Amen.



And he shot 14-37 in his second most impressive playoff performance ever IMO. He's spent his career worried about shooting 50% and the metric geeks have been all over his FG% being so high, but tonight, he was transcendent despite shooting 38% from the field.


Yes and no. Shooting-wise and gutting it out wise, a similarity. Everything else-wise, not really. Kobe has never recorded a triple double in the post season and never ever one THAT impressive--though to be fair, this was with overtime and ATL had their best player, two starters altogether and a major rotation player not playing.



Oh come on man. I was speaking to LBJ's willingness to shoot and exert his will on the other team despite a poor start. And then, the seeming inevitable ending of the great player transcending the game.

But the implication that Kobe has never had a playoff game that impressive is just Bunk.





Followed immediately by this game.....





And those games were against legit contenders.

And let's not forget......











etc, etc, etc......


LBJ yesterday stepped for the second time in his career, the first being when he scored 25 straight against the Pistons, where he was not afraid of being the man and not afraid to hurt his FG% lest ESPN take note. But he's no Kobe Bryant, never has been, never will be.
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 7:52 am    Post subject:

KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
ribeye wrote:
KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Lebron was ridiculous in game 3 ECF today. Struggled early, but kept dishing it until he got his rhythm back and then scored the last 5 pts to win by 3. He is really carrying that team. I used to hate Lebron but I can't deny how ridiculous he is out there. One man machine.



Yeah, he was amazing tonight. He pulled a Kobe on em. When he missed that baseline two and the ball came back to him for the three, I knew it was going to go in, and when he had his man isolated on the perimeter for the game clincher, I knew he was going to score. Great scorers just can't be denied in crunch situations. And he started 0-10 and kept shooting, that's what I loved about his performance.


Amen.



And he shot 14-37 in his second most impressive playoff performance ever IMO. He's spent his career worried about shooting 50% and the metric geeks have been all over his FG% being so high, but tonight, he was transcendent despite shooting 38% from the field.


Yes and no. Shooting-wise and gutting it out wise, a similarity. Everything else-wise, not really. Kobe has never recorded a triple double in the post season and never ever one THAT impressive--though to be fair, this was with overtime and ATL had their best player, two starters altogether and a major rotation player not playing.



Oh come on man. I was speaking to LBJ's willingness to shoot and exert his will on the other team despite a poor start. And then, the seeming inevitable ending of the great player transcending the game.

But the implication that Kobe has never had a playoff game that impressive is just Bunk.





Followed immediately by this game.....





And those games were against legit contenders.

And let's not forget......











etc, etc, etc......


LBJ yesterday stepped for the second time in his career, the first being when he scored 25 straight against the Pistons, where he was not afraid of being the man and not afraid to hurt his FG% lest ESPN take note. But he's no Kobe Bryant, never has been, never will be.


Cool your jets. All I said was that Kobe never had a triple double that impressive. I didn't go and check every game as I'm sure there are some that were at this level such as his 50 point game.

As for who has more dominated during their careers, I think we'll just have to disagree.
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 9:06 am    Post subject:

KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
ribeye wrote:
KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Lebron was ridiculous in game 3 ECF today. Struggled early, but kept dishing it until he got his rhythm back and then scored the last 5 pts to win by 3. He is really carrying that team. I used to hate Lebron but I can't deny how ridiculous he is out there. One man machine.



Yeah, he was amazing tonight. He pulled a Kobe on em. When he missed that baseline two and the ball came back to him for the three, I knew it was going to go in, and when he had his man isolated on the perimeter for the game clincher, I knew he was going to score. Great scorers just can't be denied in crunch situations. And he started 0-10 and kept shooting, that's what I loved about his performance.


Amen.



And he shot 14-37 in his second most impressive playoff performance ever IMO. He's spent his career worried about shooting 50% and the metric geeks have been all over his FG% being so high, but tonight, he was transcendent despite shooting 38% from the field.


Yes and no. Shooting-wise and gutting it out wise, a similarity. Everything else-wise, not really. Kobe has never recorded a triple double in the post season and never ever one THAT impressive--though to be fair, this was with overtime and ATL had their best player, two starters altogether and a major rotation player not playing.



Oh come on man. I was speaking to LBJ's willingness to shoot and exert his will on the other team despite a poor start. And then, the seeming inevitable ending of the great player transcending the game.

But the implication that Kobe has never had a playoff game that impressive is just Bunk.





Followed immediately by this game.....





And those games were against legit contenders.

And let's not forget......











etc, etc, etc......


LBJ yesterday stepped for the second time in his career, the first being when he scored 25 straight against the Pistons, where he was not afraid of being the man and not afraid to hurt his FG% lest ESPN take note. But he's no Kobe Bryant, never has been, never will be.


Kawahi, I don't think Kobe has ever had a 37/18/13 game. I'm not sure anyone in NBA history has had that combination of points/rebounds/assists. I think that's all he meant by that.
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 10:53 am    Post subject:

Just for fun - List of someone's best NBA triple doubles. Some amazing stats there. Some of it, like Denver's Fat Lever, are not easily comparable because they just used to score more in those days so all the stats, even rebounds were just more.

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-pm-triple-double-kings/

Look at freakin' Dream mentioned several times. It's why I consider it an argument that he was the best player of all time. A losing argument, but a discussionable argument. Scoring, defense, rebounds, steals, moves, jumpers, blocked shots, passing. Those who watched, was there any big flaw in his game?

Kareem's stands out. And Shaq whoa! Interesting Magic's not here, as the king of triple doubles. Wouldnt be surprised if Stockton had a 25 assist, 20 point triple double somewhere.
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 12:23 pm    Post subject:

all this stats and arguing....

there was one time when both of them were on the same team in a non all star situation. The olympics. Gold medal game. When it mattered and when the game was close in the 4th, Coach K gave the ball to Kobe. Every time. Lebron was there, he was more "prime" than Kobe. Kobe got the ball, delivered on play after play, including the famous 4 point play.

So all these stats, this and that, all this defending of Lebron, etc. That was the only time it mattered and that's what happened.

the stats favor lebron because he plays for them. stats are useful for some of these discussions (even though they are not used correctly in the academic sense), but the bottom line is that the stats will not make Coach K hand you the ball during the clutch moments of a gold medal game.
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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 12:29 pm    Post subject:

It really didn't matter then, it was an exhibition.
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