OFFICIAL D'ANGELO RUSSELL (2yr, $37M, pg. 2749)
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Fastbreak32
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:16 pm    Post subject:

Fastbreak32 wrote:
Dlo in games (n=28) over 30 minutes played (33:17):

20.25 PPG
5.82 AST
4.28 TRB
1.82 STL
0.42 BLK
2.78 TOV


7.28 FG
16.82 FGA
43% FG

2.85 3P
7.75 3PA
36% 3P

2.82 FT
3.64 FTA
77% FT


Yeah there's zero correlation between his per 36 stats and actual production when given minutes.
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GoldenThroat
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:16 pm    Post subject:

crucifixion wrote:
That was part of a larger move that resulted in getting rid of Deng and Moz, so there are ancillary parts here that led to my overall excitement. And quite honestly I'd question your fanaticism towards the Lakers if you weren't happy with getting Brook and Melo while dumping Moz, Deng and keeping Dlo Ingram and top 3.


These seem like wildly unrealistic trade scenarios then.

Quote:
Anyways thank you for acknowledging your misread, that type of acknowledgment sadly doesn't happen on message boards frequently.

But back to Dlo, part of the reason I'm not a fan of per 36 is that the is no correlation that said player will achieve those estimates. So while it appears Dlo is capable of achieving his per 36, what about all the others who are projected with high per 36 but then never realize it when they play 36. So while Russel has achieved it in a small sample of games, there is nothing you can directly point to and say yes this is what he will achieve. In fact the only thing we can really go by is that two coaches in two years questioned his effort. That to me is one sign of immaturity and I don't know if he'll ever change that.


Again, you're misinterpreting the purpose of Per-36 data, which is to normalize for minutes played. Would you prefer Per 100 Possessions, which also normalizes for pace? Would it be better to give you Booker's Per-28 data? Booker plays almost an entire shift per game longer than Russell does, and that is a function of how Luke runs his rotations, with no player playing 30+ minutes.
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tox
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:17 pm    Post subject:

crucifixion wrote:
I disagree. His statistical increase is post ASB. That is a small sample. Let's not forget this guy was putting up single digits and even a 0 in games earlier this year.
He was also putting up 40 points against the defending champs.

Which is kind of the point of averaging out over a full season.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:17 pm    Post subject:

crucifixion wrote:
I disagree. His statistical increase is post ASB. That is a small sample. Let's not forget this guy was putting up single digits and even a 0 in games earlier this year.

He put up one 0 all season and that was in 1:12 before getting injured against Indiana.
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anpherknee
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:18 pm    Post subject:

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GoldenThroat
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:19 pm    Post subject:

crucifixion wrote:
I disagree. His statistical increase is post ASB. That is a small sample. Let's not forget this guy was putting up single digits and even a 0 in games earlier this year.


The rate at which he's scored has barely changed the entire season.
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Fastbreak32
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:22 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
Quote:
But back to Dlo, part of the reason I'm not a fan of per 36 is that the is no correlation that said player will achieve those estimates. So while it appears Dlo is capable of achieving his per 36, what about all the others who are projected with high per 36 but then never realize it when they play 36. So while Russel has achieved it in a small sample of games, there is nothing you can directly point to and say yes this is what he will achieve. In fact the only thing we can really go by is that two coaches in two years questioned his effort. That to me is one sign of immaturity and I don't know if he'll ever change that.


And there lies your problem. At no point can you ever point to anyone and say "he will achieve" this. You can't even say LeBron will score 2 more points in the playoffs for a fact, because he might blow out his knee and just never recover. There are no sure things when it comes to projecting, and we can only speak in likelihoods. And yes, it is very likely LeBron will score 2 more points in the playoffs. Even if we can't say for sure.

Russell has put up consistent per-36 stats all season, including when he actually played 36 minutes. You're right that we can't know that he'll be able to sustain it for 82 games, but at least we can take a step back and acknowledge it's well within the realm of likelihood based on this season. You're just calling it a fluke based on literally no evidence.


Statistics of probability can't predict things 100%, so they mean nothing.

That's some sound reasoning, huh?

Half the time I don't even think I'm defending Dlo,as much as I am basic statistical knowledge.
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nickuku
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:24 pm    Post subject:

Theres always at least one person....
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justsomelakerfan
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:25 pm    Post subject:

Quote:
So while Russel has achieved it in a small sample of games, there is nothing you can directly point to and say yes this is what he will achieve.


He's achieving it right now post all-star break - I don't think it's a small sample size to do this from mid-Feb through the end of March but let's see how this looks at the end of the season

per 36 agenda numbers
20 ppg
4.5 reb
6.1 ast
1.7 stl
3.4 tov

post all star break in 33 minutes per game
19.8 ppg
2.9 reb
4.9 ast
1.8 stl
2.7 tov

rebounds and assists a little lower, steals and scoring are the same, turnovers are actually lower, and that's still with 3 less minutes per game
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Last edited by justsomelakerfan on Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:27 pm; edited 1 time in total
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crucifixion
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:27 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
Quote:
But back to Dlo, part of the reason I'm not a fan of per 36 is that the is no correlation that said player will achieve those estimates. So while it appears Dlo is capable of achieving his per 36, what about all the others who are projected with high per 36 but then never realize it when they play 36. So while Russel has achieved it in a small sample of games, there is nothing you can directly point to and say yes this is what he will achieve. In fact the only thing we can really go by is that two coaches in two years questioned his effort. That to me is one sign of immaturity and I don't know if he'll ever change that.


And there lies your problem. At no point can you ever point to anyone and say "he will achieve" this. You can't even say LeBron will score 2 more points in the playoffs for a fact, because he might blow out his knee and just never recover. There are no sure things when it comes to projecting, and we can only speak in likelihoods. And yes, it is very likely LeBron will score 2 more points in the playoffs. Even if we can't say for sure.

Russell has put up consistent per-36 stats all season, including when he actually played 36 minutes. You're right that we can't know that he'll be able to sustain it for 82 games, but at least we can take a step back and acknowledge it's well within the realm of likelihood based on this season. You're just calling it a fluke based on literally no evidence.


I agree with what you're saying, it is in the realm of likelyhood. But don't hammer me over the head saying every advanced stat metric says he will be great when that can't possibly be treated as a given. Is Dlo among a pool of players that can be all stars? Sure, but that same pool includes busts and using advanced stats there is no correlation to separate which is which.
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Fastbreak32
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:30 pm    Post subject:

crucifixion wrote:
tox wrote:
Quote:
But back to Dlo, part of the reason I'm not a fan of per 36 is that the is no correlation that said player will achieve those estimates. So while it appears Dlo is capable of achieving his per 36, what about all the others who are projected with high per 36 but then never realize it when they play 36. So while Russel has achieved it in a small sample of games, there is nothing you can directly point to and say yes this is what he will achieve. In fact the only thing we can really go by is that two coaches in two years questioned his effort. That to me is one sign of immaturity and I don't know if he'll ever change that.


And there lies your problem. At no point can you ever point to anyone and say "he will achieve" this. You can't even say LeBron will score 2 more points in the playoffs for a fact, because he might blow out his knee and just never recover. There are no sure things when it comes to projecting, and we can only speak in likelihoods. And yes, it is very likely LeBron will score 2 more points in the playoffs. Even if we can't say for sure.

Russell has put up consistent per-36 stats all season, including when he actually played 36 minutes. You're right that we can't know that he'll be able to sustain it for 82 games, but at least we can take a step back and acknowledge it's well within the realm of likelihood based on this season. You're just calling it a fluke based on literally no evidence.


I agree with what you're saying, it is in the realm of likelyhood. But don't hammer me over the head saying every advanced stat metric says he will be great when that can't possibly be treated as a given. Is Dlo among a pool of players that can be all stars? Sure, but that same pool includes busts and using advanced stats there is no correlation to separate which is which.


Busts don't really produce. He's already producing, and has been prior to the all star break when given minutes. I don't think many of us are claiming he's destined for greatness, but many of us are excited by the possibilities.
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"...there was a time when the Israelites were wandering in the desert and all of a sudden, bread came down from heaven,” Pelinka said. “That’s kind of what today feels like for us to have KCP join.”
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Omar Little
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:37 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
And the Per-36 thing is especially funny because his Per-36 averages have barely moved an inch since he started actually getting close to 36 minutes.


In fairness, his in 36 minute stats are better than his per 36 minute stats. He gets better per minute with more minutes.
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Omar Little
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:40 pm    Post subject:

Just my .02, but the problem with people espousing the eye test is that in order to do that all you have to have are eyes and a mouth, and pretty much every fool has those.
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DancingBarry
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:40 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
DancingBarry wrote:
Meanwhile in another universe, this thread is discussing what a great game Russell put together last night. SMH.


You own the site and yet it's like you've never visited LG before.


I don't know why I was a little surprised. I usually assume the worst. I just didn't see the angle the topic would spin off to today.
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crucifixion
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:41 pm    Post subject:

Fastbreak32 wrote:
crucifixion wrote:
tox wrote:
Quote:
But back to Dlo, part of the reason I'm not a fan of per 36 is that the is no correlation that said player will achieve those estimates. So while it appears Dlo is capable of achieving his per 36, what about all the others who are projected with high per 36 but then never realize it when they play 36. So while Russel has achieved it in a small sample of games, there is nothing you can directly point to and say yes this is what he will achieve. In fact the only thing we can really go by is that two coaches in two years questioned his effort. That to me is one sign of immaturity and I don't know if he'll ever change that.


And there lies your problem. At no point can you ever point to anyone and say "he will achieve" this. You can't even say LeBron will score 2 more points in the playoffs for a fact, because he might blow out his knee and just never recover. There are no sure things when it comes to projecting, and we can only speak in likelihoods. And yes, it is very likely LeBron will score 2 more points in the playoffs. Even if we can't say for sure.

Russell has put up consistent per-36 stats all season, including when he actually played 36 minutes. You're right that we can't know that he'll be able to sustain it for 82 games, but at least we can take a step back and acknowledge it's well within the realm of likelihood based on this season. You're just calling it a fluke based on literally no evidence.


I agree with what you're saying, it is in the realm of likelyhood. But don't hammer me over the head saying every advanced stat metric says he will be great when that can't possibly be treated as a given. Is Dlo among a pool of players that can be all stars? Sure, but that same pool includes busts and using advanced stats there is no correlation to separate which is which.


Busts don't really produce. He's already producing, and has been prior to the all star break when given minutes. I don't think many of us are claiming he's destined for greatness, but many of us are excited by the possibilities.


And while on the surface it may seem on the contrary, but I too am excited about the possibilities. But I do think he has a long way to go.
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Omar Little
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:43 pm    Post subject:

crucifixion wrote:
tox wrote:
Quote:
But back to Dlo, part of the reason I'm not a fan of per 36 is that the is no correlation that said player will achieve those estimates. So while it appears Dlo is capable of achieving his per 36, what about all the others who are projected with high per 36 but then never realize it when they play 36. So while Russel has achieved it in a small sample of games, there is nothing you can directly point to and say yes this is what he will achieve. In fact the only thing we can really go by is that two coaches in two years questioned his effort. That to me is one sign of immaturity and I don't know if he'll ever change that.


And there lies your problem. At no point can you ever point to anyone and say "he will achieve" this. You can't even say LeBron will score 2 more points in the playoffs for a fact, because he might blow out his knee and just never recover. There are no sure things when it comes to projecting, and we can only speak in likelihoods. And yes, it is very likely LeBron will score 2 more points in the playoffs. Even if we can't say for sure.

Russell has put up consistent per-36 stats all season, including when he actually played 36 minutes. You're right that we can't know that he'll be able to sustain it for 82 games, but at least we can take a step back and acknowledge it's well within the realm of likelihood based on this season. You're just calling it a fluke based on literally no evidence.


I agree with what you're saying, it is in the realm of likelyhood. But don't hammer me over the head saying every advanced stat metric says he will be great when that can't possibly be treated as a given. Is Dlo among a pool of players that can be all stars? Sure, but that same pool includes busts and using advanced stats there is no correlation to separate which is which.


Saying something nonsensical doesn't make it sensical.
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Fastbreak32
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:44 pm    Post subject:

^ Sure he has some work to do, but to me that's actually encouraging that he's already producing when he can improve in different areas of the game.
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pjiddy
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:44 pm    Post subject:

List of guards 22 or younger, with a PER of 15 or higher:

1. Russell (21): 16.08


Meanwhile, the All Eye Test Team:

Lavine (22): 14.78
Booker (20): 14.28
Smart (23): 11.86
Mudiay (21): 10.28
Exum (21): 9.21
Dunn (23): 8.57

And with maybe the exception of Booker, no one could argue Russell has superior teammates to anyone on that Eye Test team.
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Fastbreak32
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:48 pm    Post subject:

pjiddy wrote:
List of guards 22 or younger, with a PER of 15 or higher:

1. Russell (21): 16.08


Meanwhile, the All Eye Test Team:

Lavine (22): 14.78
Booker (20): 14.28
Smart (23): 11.86
Mudiay (21): 10.28
Exum (21): 9.21
Dunn (23): 8.57

And with maybe the exception of Booker, no one could argue Russell has superior teammates to anyone on that Eye Test team.


And Dunn was marketed as the guy ready to make an immediate impact.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:57 pm    Post subject:

Reminder: objectively Anthony Bennett was a bust (1st pick). Hasheem Thabeet (2nd pick) was a bust. We are way beyond ever worrying about Dlo being a bust.
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Chase.button07
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:01 pm    Post subject:

my expectation is for him to drive and pick up some easy 5/6ft's in the process. Like harden/Demar
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Inverse
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:04 pm    Post subject:

Are people really still complaining about DLO?

The kid just turned 21. He has 5 years BEFORE he enters his prime. Give me a break. Kids gonna be a perennial all star in this league
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:14 pm    Post subject:

Chase.button07 wrote:
my expectation is for him to drive and pick up some easy 5/6ft's in the process. Like harden/Demar


He's only begun developing his strength. If he can maintain a hefty build as he matures he'll be a handful in the lane and on post ups.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:25 pm    Post subject:

Mdstgreen wrote:
Chase.button07 wrote:
my expectation is for him to drive and pick up some easy 5/6ft's in the process. Like harden/Demar


He's only begun developing his strength. If he can maintain a hefty build as he matures he'll be a handful in the lane and on post ups.


His best attribute is how good he'll be once the lakers are a playoff team. Backbreaking 3's, he knows how to cut off the ball in the halfcourt, good pick and roll player who will only get better, and his post ups will increase with age.

The postups are where he will generate many of his free throws. Then as he gets stronger in his legs and more confident he will get to the rim and FT line more.

In a halfcourt, slow it down game he will be a great asset like a Jason kidd (later years), ginobli, Chauncey Billups type that are proven winners. However, people want him to be an explosive up and down scorer which is not who he is. He would be amazing in the Spurs system.

If he plays with a guy like Lonzo Ball or another great passer he will score an extra 4ppg off cuts and he will get 2-3 more clean catch and shoot threes per game. People are really tough on this kid given the terrible circumstances he has had the past two years.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:47 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
Saw someone ask a few pages back. Russell needs to average 18.1 ppg over the last 8 games to get to 16 ppg on the year, and 6.6 apg to get to 5.0 apg.


Ah perfect! Thanks GT.

If they let him run show like last night I can see that. Something fun to root for the final games coming up.
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