OFFICIAL D'ANGELO RUSSELL THREAD....
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Omar Little
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:44 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
The Nets are the best team in the NBA at "shot location defense": only 57% of opponents shots come from three or the restricted area. For a team without a shotblocking presence outside of rookie Allen, they particularly limit their opponents attempts at the rim.

The whole franchise is analytics focused, and it'll be interesting to see how their approach works long-term.


They are already radically overachieving IMO.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:12 pm    Post subject:

Omar Little wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
The Nets are the best team in the NBA at "shot location defense": only 57% of opponents shots come from three or the restricted area. For a team without a shotblocking presence outside of rookie Allen, they particularly limit their opponents attempts at the rim.

The whole franchise is analytics focused, and it'll be interesting to see how their approach works long-term.


They are already radically overachieving IMO.

True, and it bodes well. But Marks and Atkinson may have gotten their overachieving crew too good too soon - they're going to have to get creative (and lucky) in the next couple years to add a future star and avoid the mediocrity trap.
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saetarubia
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:19 pm    Post subject:

Nets got blown out by the Pistons. Their first bad loss in a while.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:29 pm    Post subject:

saetarubia wrote:
Nets got blown out by the Pistons. Their first bad loss in a while.

Dinwiddie was terrible and the Nets don't have anyone else to take over if he's off.

Their last bad loss was in New Orleans. The Nets league worst center rotation rears its ugly head again.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:50 pm    Post subject:

Looking forward to Ingram passing Porzingis in TS%.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:58 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
Looking forward to Ingram passing Porzingis in TS%.

That -0.6 BPM is shocking.
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tox
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:38 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
Looking forward to Ingram passing Porzingis in TS%.

That -0.6 BPM is shocking.

His RPM is still pretty good: +1.83. I'd put more stock in that.
(BI: -2.74, Dlo: -2.13)
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:53 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
Looking forward to Ingram passing Porzingis in TS%.

That -0.6 BPM is shocking.

His RPM is still pretty good: +1.83. I'd put more stock in that.
(BI: -2.74, Dlo: -2.13)


Have you seen Jacob Goldstein's "luck" adjusted ratings (for things like FT and 3pt %)?

https://fansided.com/2018/01/08/nylon-calculus-calculating-luck-adjusted-ratings/

Quote:
On the flip side, the least lucky player has been D’Angelo Russell. The Nets were in reality 9.3 points per 100 possessions worse with Russell on-court earlier in the year, but have actually been +0.8 points per 100 possessions better after adjusting for luck.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:58 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
Looking forward to Ingram passing Porzingis in TS%.

That -0.6 BPM is shocking.

His RPM is still pretty good: +1.83. I'd put more stock in that.
(BI: -2.74, Dlo: -2.13)

True, and he's a second banana forced to be a primary option on a team that's next best scorer is Michael Beasley. But the PorzinGod narrative that starts every new season before he cools off is a bit tedious.
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tox
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:15 am    Post subject:

fiendishoc wrote:
tox wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
Looking forward to Ingram passing Porzingis in TS%.

That -0.6 BPM is shocking.

His RPM is still pretty good: +1.83. I'd put more stock in that.
(BI: -2.74, Dlo: -2.13)


Have you seen Jacob Goldstein's "luck" adjusted ratings (for things like FT and 3pt %)?

https://fansided.com/2018/01/08/nylon-calculus-calculating-luck-adjusted-ratings/

Quote:
On the flip side, the least lucky player has been D’Angelo Russell. The Nets were in reality 9.3 points per 100 possessions worse with Russell on-court earlier in the year, but have actually been +0.8 points per 100 possessions better after adjusting for luck.

I haven't. That's awesome. Such a simple idea based on some well established facts. Great stuff.

I look forward to Dlo returning then, because we can expect this to regress to the mean (presumably 0).
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BigGameHames
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:29 am    Post subject:

tox wrote:
fiendishoc wrote:
tox wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
Looking forward to Ingram passing Porzingis in TS%.

That -0.6 BPM is shocking.

His RPM is still pretty good: +1.83. I'd put more stock in that.
(BI: -2.74, Dlo: -2.13)


Have you seen Jacob Goldstein's "luck" adjusted ratings (for things like FT and 3pt %)?

https://fansided.com/2018/01/08/nylon-calculus-calculating-luck-adjusted-ratings/

Quote:
On the flip side, the least lucky player has been D’Angelo Russell. The Nets were in reality 9.3 points per 100 possessions worse with Russell on-court earlier in the year, but have actually been +0.8 points per 100 possessions better after adjusting for luck.

I haven't. That's awesome. Such a simple idea based on some well established facts. Great stuff.

I look forward to Dlo returning then, because we can expect this to regress to the mean (presumably 0).


Serious question, how do you adjust for luck? Doesn’t sound like something that can be done fairly IMO.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:21 am    Post subject:

BigGameHames wrote:
tox wrote:
fiendishoc wrote:
tox wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
Looking forward to Ingram passing Porzingis in TS%.

That -0.6 BPM is shocking.

His RPM is still pretty good: +1.83. I'd put more stock in that.
(BI: -2.74, Dlo: -2.13)


Have you seen Jacob Goldstein's "luck" adjusted ratings (for things like FT and 3pt %)?

https://fansided.com/2018/01/08/nylon-calculus-calculating-luck-adjusted-ratings/

Quote:
On the flip side, the least lucky player has been D’Angelo Russell. The Nets were in reality 9.3 points per 100 possessions worse with Russell on-court earlier in the year, but have actually been +0.8 points per 100 possessions better after adjusting for luck.

I haven't. That's awesome. Such a simple idea based on some well established facts. Great stuff.

I look forward to Dlo returning then, because we can expect this to regress to the mean (presumably 0).


Serious question, how do you adjust for luck? Doesn’t sound like something that can be done fairly IMO.

It's all described in the article, but one of the most simple elements is obvious when you think about it - why should a player be penalized if an opposing team just happens to hit more of their FTs when that player is on the floor versus off? Did that player hurt his team's FT defense?
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GoldenThroat
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:33 am    Post subject:

Tox, what's the difference between RPM and RAPM?
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BigGameHames
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:08 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
BigGameHames wrote:
tox wrote:
fiendishoc wrote:
tox wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
Looking forward to Ingram passing Porzingis in TS%.

That -0.6 BPM is shocking.

His RPM is still pretty good: +1.83. I'd put more stock in that.
(BI: -2.74, Dlo: -2.13)


Have you seen Jacob Goldstein's "luck" adjusted ratings (for things like FT and 3pt %)?

https://fansided.com/2018/01/08/nylon-calculus-calculating-luck-adjusted-ratings/

Quote:
On the flip side, the least lucky player has been D’Angelo Russell. The Nets were in reality 9.3 points per 100 possessions worse with Russell on-court earlier in the year, but have actually been +0.8 points per 100 possessions better after adjusting for luck.

I haven't. That's awesome. Such a simple idea based on some well established facts. Great stuff.

I look forward to Dlo returning then, because we can expect this to regress to the mean (presumably 0).


Serious question, how do you adjust for luck? Doesn’t sound like something that can be done fairly IMO.

It's all described in the article, but one of the most simple elements is obvious when you think about it - why should a player be penalized if an opposing team just happens to hit more of their FTs when that player is on the floor versus off? Did that player hurt his team's FT defense?


Interesting I didn’t realize that type of stuff would have that big of an effect.
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tox
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:28 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
Tox, what's the difference between RPM and RAPM?

RAPM is basically the foundation for RPM. RAPM is best thought of as plus/minus, but it adjusts for the teammates and opposition quality. I don't want to clutter this post with how it does that, though I could give you a brief explanation if you're curious. But this is where the "A" in RAPM comes from: adjusted.

The other thing it does it puts a "prior" on players, reasoning that knowing nothing else, a player should be closer to 0.* This is called "regularization" and it's the "R" in RAPM (Regularized Adjusted Plus/Minus). This regularization is what made it a decent stat (there is an APM that is not regularized and no one uses it).

Now, one of the things about regularization is it inherently punishes outliers. That is a good thing in general: it forces the model to avoid extreme solutions where Nance is +13 and Kuzma is -22, instead of +1 and -2. The problem is that if Steph is outlier good on offense (which he probably is), offensive RAPM will underestimate him and instead overestimate his teammates' offensive RAPM. So when he was on the Cavs, Delly used to have a good offensive RAPM partly because he just sort of "stole" credit from LeBron.

So, RPM is built on top of that. It uses box score stats (via a BPM-like stat) as another prior, which helps ameliorate that issue (e.g. LeBron *is* an outlier statistically so it can better assign credit). It also adds information like height as another prior (taller players = better DRPM and, to a lesser extent, shorter players = better ORPM), and I believe it also adds a prior of -2.00 to rookies.

As you might recall, I don't like that RPM uses box score stats. I still don't -- RAPM is my favorite tool for evaluating a box score stuffer with questionable impact like Westbrook, but RPM is worthless because Westbrook's BPM prior buoys his score a lot -- but empirically it does give better results for predicting team records.

Does that help? It was kind of a long explanation so lmk if I lost you anywhere.
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tox
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:32 pm    Post subject:

(From that explanation, it should be clear that neither RAPM nor RPM adjusts for "luck" btw. A luck adjusted RAPM would be interesting but I admit I have no idea how you'd do that.)
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:39 pm    Post subject:

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NetsDaily.com
@NetsDaily
Multiple sources: @Dloading will NOT return vs. Knicks Monday. He has yet to practice 5-on-5 even once. Kenny Atkinson said Saturday he did play well in a 3-on-3. Nets practice again Tuesday. No word on whether DLo will go 5-on-5 then.
1:56 PM · Jan 14, 2018
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:13 am    Post subject:

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Anthony Puccio

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@APOOCH
48m48 minutes ago
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Kenny Atkinson said D’Angelo Russell had a “full-on” practice with the Long Island Nets. This would be his first 5-on-5 practice since the injury. #Nets
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:37 am    Post subject:

I honestly like how their being extra cautious with their guys when it comes to injuries. I think they did the same with Lopez and his foot.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:03 pm    Post subject:

BRK in a bit of a pickle with Russell's contract. He's a core piece going forward so they need to be cautious with bringing him back from knee surgery. At the same time he's extension eligible this July and they probably need more input on what they have with him.

If they decide to wait another year that would put all three of their primary ball handlers (Russell, Lin, Dinwiddie) in contract years. Russell would be looking for the big score, Lin would be coming off of injury and D-winde would be looking for his first NBA pay day.
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