About guarding Kobe: Shane Battier explains analytics using playing against Kobe as example
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Omar Little
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:03 pm    Post subject:

To hoopla's point, I don't think hype is the driver of backlash so much as change, in this case, deep, systemic paradigm shift kind of change.
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:44 pm    Post subject:

hoopla wrote:
Here's the reality i've been saying in that other thread.

Analytics have been around since eye balls have been around. Lets get all the "i love analytics and you better jump on it too" guys to agree here. Because if you dont then thats the real argument. Not acknowledging the fact that this is not NEW. Its an upgrade from the original eyeballs, to guys being called scouts writing something down that they've witnessed and passing it on to the coach or player(s). to now electronically tracking players on the court, while also using eyeballs(scouts) to bring in the information and tracking more and more data(big data). to pass along to the coach, GM, Players.


If this is really how you conceive of analytics, then you've missed the boat. This is like saying that the atomic bomb wasn't really a change because countries had been building bombs for a long time. Modern analytics is a fundamental change in the way that teams operate, evaluate players, and design schemes. If you can't accept that, you're just in denial.
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 3:43 pm    Post subject:

24 wrote:
To hoopla's point, I don't think hype is the driver of backlash so much as change, in this case, deep, systemic paradigm shift kind of change.


Some people saw Skynet for the beast it could become before it took over the world and killed everyone.
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:11 pm    Post subject:

USCandLakers wrote:
24 wrote:
To hoopla's point, I don't think hype is the driver of backlash so much as change, in this case, deep, systemic paradigm shift kind of change.


Some people saw Skynet for the beast it could become before it took over the world and killed everyone.


The (bleep) is this supposed to even mean?
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:50 pm    Post subject:

Greg Popovich on the role of the post game in the current NBA.

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/07/25/gregg-popovich-discusses-three-point-shot-changing-roles-for-bigs-in-nba
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 7:03 pm    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
Watching film isn't analytics at all. It is analysis, but it is not analytics in any way, shape, or form.

Again, as has been said many times by myself among others, this all stems from a misunderstanding around what it is and what it isn't.

Analytics is simply empirical data. And it supplements, not supplants, observational data.

I like how it's the "same principle applied" when the Celtics beat the Lakers but it's not the same principle applied, and failed, when the Lakers beat the Celtics.

It's not an either or issue. It never has been since the time of eyeballs.


analytics is information resulting from the systematic analysis of data or statistics.

When i spoke on eyeballs, etc. i was talking about the WHOLE.
people have been observing things and jotting what they have observed..down for decades when it comes to hoops. that aint new.
that was my point. now we have other methods along with the old methods to gather even more data. but even back then. They just used pen and paper to break down the data they had in front of them. "so mr scout .. you're saying kareem fakes left and shoots right 70% of the time?" So now that we know this, should we tell our defenders dont go for the fake? So do you have any data on players that didnt bite the fake? How often did kareem make a counter move and score or get fouled? Lets compare that to how many times he scored or got fouled making his fake and faking his defender out doing the fake left, shoot right move.

^^^you can only get said data after you've watched a number of Cap's games. Then its on you to see the patterns. after you've seen the patterns. its on you to make a decision based on the patterns you've seen. someone can tell you all day and night player A doesnt such and such. it wont matter if you dont listens and come up with a plan of action based on the data given. All i'm saying is, the data has always been there. it didnt just appear in the times of computer and big data. analysis has always been here. analytics has always been here(on pen and paper with a lot less data but still analytics).


Quote:
Analytics often involves studying past historical data to research potential trends, to analyze the effects of certain decisions or events, or to evaluate the performance of a given tool or scenario. The goal of analytics is to improve the business by gaining knowledge which can be used to make improvements or changes.



everything i said above just walked thru the above definition.


another break down.

the eyeballs(scouts at games, coaches players who pay attention while they're playing vs a team/player and while they're on the bench) would be the collection of data.

Once the scouts, players, and coaches bring the data back and spend hours going over it. They will then realize there are patterns in the data(data mining).


A guy like mike brown and kobe will sit there for hours going over these patterns trying to figure out ways to dismantle a team's/player's defense with their offense or how to dismantle a team's/players offensive with their defense. This portion of it is the analytics stage. its the So now what do we do with all of the information we have and all of the patterns we can see?
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 7:04 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
hoopla wrote:
Here's the reality i've been saying in that other thread.

Analytics have been around since eye balls have been around. Lets get all the "i love analytics and you better jump on it too" guys to agree here. Because if you dont then thats the real argument. Not acknowledging the fact that this is not NEW. Its an upgrade from the original eyeballs, to guys being called scouts writing something down that they've witnessed and passing it on to the coach or player(s). to now electronically tracking players on the court, while also using eyeballs(scouts) to bring in the information and tracking more and more data(big data). to pass along to the coach, GM, Players.


If this is really how you conceive of analytics, then you've missed the boat. This is like saying that the atomic bomb wasn't really a change because countries had been building bombs for a long time. Modern analytics is a fundamental change in the way that teams operate, evaluate players, and design schemes. If you can't accept that, you're just in denial.


explain to me how things have changed. then let me respond to each change you see.
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 7:47 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Greg Popovich on the role of the post game in the current NBA.

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/07/25/gregg-popovich-discusses-three-point-shot-changing-roles-for-bigs-in-nba


Quote:
Phil Jackson isn’t wrong in the sense that teams need to have penetration still to make and offense work, that things need to flow inside out to get good looks at threes. It’s just how you need to get those has evolved; you can’t just throw the rock into Shaq in the post and think he’ll be single-covered by Vlade Divac anymore. It’s an evolution (if you think it’s better or worse,


There it is again. You cant just do the thing that absolutely no one suggested that you try to do.....but let's just go ahead and mention it anyway. That line, if I never have to hear it again...

It's so weird that people think Phil Jackson doesn't know this. Almost as if 2008-2011 didn't happen. Earth to the Phil Jackson doubters, he knows the things you think he doesn't know, he knew them over a decade ago when the rule changes happened. He knew them when he altered his offense for the Kobe/Pau teams, and no matter how much you try to twist his words, in his mind, which is as brilliant as it comes in regards to basketball, he will know.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 12:51 am    Post subject:

Do you like these changes as the viewers? 133 3pt attempts in the all star game? NBA is soon going to lack true superstars or their roles will be reduced to p&r.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 2:28 am    Post subject:

voylash wrote:
Do you like these changes as the viewers? 133 3pt attempts in the all star game? NBA is soon going to lack true superstars or their roles will be reduced to p&r.


I wouldn't really mind if the illegal defense rules were changed back (which is the cause of all this), but i don't see it happening.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 5:36 am    Post subject:

hoopla wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
hoopla wrote:
Here's the reality i've been saying in that other thread.

Analytics have been around since eye balls have been around. Lets get all the "i love analytics and you better jump on it too" guys to agree here. Because if you dont then thats the real argument. Not acknowledging the fact that this is not NEW. Its an upgrade from the original eyeballs, to guys being called scouts writing something down that they've witnessed and passing it on to the coach or player(s). to now electronically tracking players on the court, while also using eyeballs(scouts) to bring in the information and tracking more and more data(big data). to pass along to the coach, GM, Players.


If this is really how you conceive of analytics, then you've missed the boat. This is like saying that the atomic bomb wasn't really a change because countries had been building bombs for a long time. Modern analytics is a fundamental change in the way that teams operate, evaluate players, and design schemes. If you can't accept that, you're just in denial.


explain to me how things have changed. then let me respond to each change you see.


No, I'm not going to play that game. You're in denial. It doesn't matter what I list. You will concoct some way to say that it's really nothing new. That's a pointless exercise. Pretty much everyone involved with the NBA is telling you that analytics is changing everything, but you're the one guy who sees through the illusion. Right. Wake up and smell the coffee.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 5:40 am    Post subject:

voylash wrote:
Do you like these changes as the viewers? 133 3pt attempts in the all star game? NBA is soon going to lack true superstars or their roles will be reduced to p&r.


I'm not thrilled with all of the threes, but I like it better than the slow, defensive game of the '90s. Over time, defenses adjust, so I expect that we'll see further evolution.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 6:07 am    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
voylash wrote:
Do you like these changes as the viewers? 133 3pt attempts in the all star game? NBA is soon going to lack true superstars or their roles will be reduced to p&r.


I'm not thrilled with all of the threes, but I like it better than the slow, defensive game of the '90s. Over time, defenses adjust, so I expect that we'll see further evolution.


Even smaller lineups? Anthony Davis is the future of big men - he can shoot and most importantly he can defend perimiter players.

It's a shame that Embiid is so injury prone, I hope that Okafor stays healthy. The only way for any changes to start are big men who can play in the post. It will force other teams to counter them with their big men.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 6:47 am    Post subject:

The great irony in the analytics and big data movement (which I deal with on a regular basis in my line of work which is marketing), is that the anti-data crowd, who don't believe in the application of empirical data in making decisions, want empirical proof that it works. The analytics crowd, on the other hand, need philosophical buy-in from the anti-data crowd.

At the end of the day, in business, I cannot make a consumer buy a product. And in basketball, I cannot guarantee a made basket or defensive stop. After all, sometimes players make impossible shots and sometimes players miss easy gimmes.

The fallacy that often occurs in this debate is the idea that analytics can create desired outcomes. It can't. And no pro-analytics person would tell you that it can (because if they could, your team would win games by something like 300-0 every night).

What they can do, in business, poker, basketball, etc, is give you greater insight in to how to position yourself to have a greater chance for success. But that's going to require that you look at the information analytics can give you, and decide for yourself if it can be of incremental help to you.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 6:52 am    Post subject:

voylash wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
voylash wrote:
Do you like these changes as the viewers? 133 3pt attempts in the all star game? NBA is soon going to lack true superstars or their roles will be reduced to p&r.


I'm not thrilled with all of the threes, but I like it better than the slow, defensive game of the '90s. Over time, defenses adjust, so I expect that we'll see further evolution.


Even smaller lineups? Anthony Davis is the future of big men - he can shoot and most importantly he can defend perimiter players.

It's a shame that Embiid is so injury prone, I hope that Okafor stays healthy. The only way for any changes to start are big men who can play in the post. It will force other teams to counter them with their big men.


Very doubtful that Okafor generates the PPP necessary to force teams into much, personnel-wise, especially when you consider his defensive issues.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 7:42 am    Post subject:

Here's an example of the kind of information analytics can give you. And if you don't feel it is valuable or interesting, then that's fine, but I'd personally love to get my hands on this information just because I find it fascinating.

http://grantland.com/features/expected-value-possession-nba-analytics/

It's a long article, and a couple of years old, but this one speaks to EPV. Expected Possession Value. This is equivalent to EV (Expected Value) in statistics. Basically, what is the value of a particular event, regardless of outcome. Events with more positive EV are ones you want to pursue because the POTENTIAL reward outweighs the risk and over the course of time, you will profit. Here's a simple example:

- If I charge you $1 to guess a number from 1 to 10, and will award you $10 for guessing correctly, then your EV = $0. It doesn't matter what happens on a specific outcome, because over time you will net even so each go around is worth nothing.

- But what if I were to charge you $1 to guess a number from 1 to 10, and would award you $20 for guessing correctly? Then your EV would be +$1.00 and you should take that bet. Regardless of whether you guess right or wrong, your guess alone is essentially earning you $1.00 in profit every time you play.

So in basketball, they can do this but instead of money, they can look at the EV of a particular event (a possession) where the value is points. And what's really cool is that they can freeze a singular moment in time and based on what is happening (who is on the court, where are they standing, what are they doing) they can determine the expected value of that moment in time.

Quote:
"The play begins with the Cavs leading by two points and just under nine seconds remaining in the game. As Parker initiates the offensive sequence, the model estimates that the possession is worth 0.97 points.

After Duncan’s screen frees up Parker to attack Zeller, EPV actually decreases as Parker penetrates through the midrange closely marked by Zeller. But as he gets close to the basket, the EPV surges to 1.36. Parker’s dribble drive has already elevated that value of the possession by 0.39 points — but he’s not done. He increases the value of the play further when he fires that crazy baseline pass to Leonard, standing open in the corner. EPV accounts for both Leonard’s great corner shooting prowess and that he is wide open. As a result, the EPV peaks at 1.75 as Parker throws the game-winning assist. There is a slight decrease in value, to 1.58, as Dion Waiters frantically attempts to close out Leonard, but Waiters is too late."


You can do this for every single in bounds play that you've ever run (since the cameras were put in and data captured of course) and determine which plays give you the greatest likelihood of success.

How could someone refuse that kind of information? You don't have to make your decision based solely on it, but if I could give you a list of plays that shows, mathematically, what your best lineups are, your best set plays, etc, why wouldn't you want it to corroborate it with your observations?
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 8:20 am    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
Here's an example of the kind of information analytics can give you. And if you don't feel it is valuable or interesting, then that's fine, but I'd personally love to get my hands on this information just because I find it fascinating.

http://grantland.com/features/expected-value-possession-nba-analytics/

It's a long article, and a couple of years old, but this one speaks to EPV. Expected Possession Value. This is equivalent to EV (Expected Value) in statistics. Basically, what is the value of a particular event, regardless of outcome. Events with more positive EV are ones you want to pursue because the POTENTIAL reward outweighs the risk and over the course of time, you will profit. Here's a simple example:

- If I charge you $1 to guess a number from 1 to 10, and will award you $10 for guessing correctly, then your EV = $0. It doesn't matter what happens on a specific outcome, because over time you will net even so each go around is worth nothing.

- But what if I were to charge you $1 to guess a number from 1 to 10, and would award you $20 for guessing correctly? Then your EV would be +$1.00 and you should take that bet. Regardless of whether you guess right or wrong, your guess alone is essentially earning you $1.00 in profit every time you play.

So in basketball, they can do this but instead of money, they can look at the EV of a particular event (a possession) where the value is points. And what's really cool is that they can freeze a singular moment in time and based on what is happening (who is on the court, where are they standing, what are they doing) they can determine the expected value of that moment in time.

Quote:
"The play begins with the Cavs leading by two points and just under nine seconds remaining in the game. As Parker initiates the offensive sequence, the model estimates that the possession is worth 0.97 points.

After Duncan’s screen frees up Parker to attack Zeller, EPV actually decreases as Parker penetrates through the midrange closely marked by Zeller. But as he gets close to the basket, the EPV surges to 1.36. Parker’s dribble drive has already elevated that value of the possession by 0.39 points — but he’s not done. He increases the value of the play further when he fires that crazy baseline pass to Leonard, standing open in the corner. EPV accounts for both Leonard’s great corner shooting prowess and that he is wide open. As a result, the EPV peaks at 1.75 as Parker throws the game-winning assist. There is a slight decrease in value, to 1.58, as Dion Waiters frantically attempts to close out Leonard, but Waiters is too late."


You can do this for every single in bounds play that you've ever run (since the cameras were put in and data captured of course) and determine which plays give you the greatest likelihood of success.

How could someone refuse that kind of information? You don't have to make your decision based solely on it, but if I could give you a list of plays that shows, mathematically, what your best lineups are, your best set plays, etc, why wouldn't you want it to corroborate it with your observations?


That was both amazing and depressing. We're in the midst of an informational gold rush, and the Lakers are late to the party.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 11:55 am    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
Here's an example of the kind of information analytics can give you. And if you don't feel it is valuable or interesting, then that's fine, but I'd personally love to get my hands on this information just because I find it fascinating.

http://grantland.com/features/expected-value-possession-nba-analytics/

It's a long article, and a couple of years old, but this one speaks to EPV. Expected Possession Value. This is equivalent to EV (Expected Value) in statistics. Basically, what is the value of a particular event, regardless of outcome. Events with more positive EV are ones you want to pursue because the POTENTIAL reward outweighs the risk and over the course of time, you will profit. Here's a simple example:

- If I charge you $1 to guess a number from 1 to 10, and will award you $10 for guessing correctly, then your EV = $0. It doesn't matter what happens on a specific outcome, because over time you will net even so each go around is worth nothing.

- But what if I were to charge you $1 to guess a number from 1 to 10, and would award you $20 for guessing correctly? Then your EV would be +$1.00 and you should take that bet. Regardless of whether you guess right or wrong, your guess alone is essentially earning you $1.00 in profit every time you play.

So in basketball, they can do this but instead of money, they can look at the EV of a particular event (a possession) where the value is points. And what's really cool is that they can freeze a singular moment in time and based on what is happening (who is on the court, where are they standing, what are they doing) they can determine the expected value of that moment in time.

Quote:
"The play begins with the Cavs leading by two points and just under nine seconds remaining in the game. As Parker initiates the offensive sequence, the model estimates that the possession is worth 0.97 points.

After Duncan’s screen frees up Parker to attack Zeller, EPV actually decreases as Parker penetrates through the midrange closely marked by Zeller. But as he gets close to the basket, the EPV surges to 1.36. Parker’s dribble drive has already elevated that value of the possession by 0.39 points — but he’s not done. He increases the value of the play further when he fires that crazy baseline pass to Leonard, standing open in the corner. EPV accounts for both Leonard’s great corner shooting prowess and that he is wide open. As a result, the EPV peaks at 1.75 as Parker throws the game-winning assist. There is a slight decrease in value, to 1.58, as Dion Waiters frantically attempts to close out Leonard, but Waiters is too late."


You can do this for every single in bounds play that you've ever run (since the cameras were put in and data captured of course) and determine which plays give you the greatest likelihood of success.

How could someone refuse that kind of information? You don't have to make your decision based solely on it, but if I could give you a list of plays that shows, mathematically, what your best lineups are, your best set plays, etc, why wouldn't you want it to corroborate it with your observations?

Amazing isn't it? We see the same thing and both think is supports our point. I'd say impasse reached.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 12:30 pm    Post subject:

KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Here's an example of the kind of information analytics can give you. And if you don't feel it is valuable or interesting, then that's fine, but I'd personally love to get my hands on this information just because I find it fascinating.

http://grantland.com/features/expected-value-possession-nba-analytics/

It's a long article, and a couple of years old, but this one speaks to EPV. Expected Possession Value. This is equivalent to EV (Expected Value) in statistics. Basically, what is the value of a particular event, regardless of outcome. Events with more positive EV are ones you want to pursue because the POTENTIAL reward outweighs the risk and over the course of time, you will profit. Here's a simple example:

- If I charge you $1 to guess a number from 1 to 10, and will award you $10 for guessing correctly, then your EV = $0. It doesn't matter what happens on a specific outcome, because over time you will net even so each go around is worth nothing.

- But what if I were to charge you $1 to guess a number from 1 to 10, and would award you $20 for guessing correctly? Then your EV would be +$1.00 and you should take that bet. Regardless of whether you guess right or wrong, your guess alone is essentially earning you $1.00 in profit every time you play.

So in basketball, they can do this but instead of money, they can look at the EV of a particular event (a possession) where the value is points. And what's really cool is that they can freeze a singular moment in time and based on what is happening (who is on the court, where are they standing, what are they doing) they can determine the expected value of that moment in time.

Quote:
"The play begins with the Cavs leading by two points and just under nine seconds remaining in the game. As Parker initiates the offensive sequence, the model estimates that the possession is worth 0.97 points.

After Duncan’s screen frees up Parker to attack Zeller, EPV actually decreases as Parker penetrates through the midrange closely marked by Zeller. But as he gets close to the basket, the EPV surges to 1.36. Parker’s dribble drive has already elevated that value of the possession by 0.39 points — but he’s not done. He increases the value of the play further when he fires that crazy baseline pass to Leonard, standing open in the corner. EPV accounts for both Leonard’s great corner shooting prowess and that he is wide open. As a result, the EPV peaks at 1.75 as Parker throws the game-winning assist. There is a slight decrease in value, to 1.58, as Dion Waiters frantically attempts to close out Leonard, but Waiters is too late."


You can do this for every single in bounds play that you've ever run (since the cameras were put in and data captured of course) and determine which plays give you the greatest likelihood of success.

How could someone refuse that kind of information? You don't have to make your decision based solely on it, but if I could give you a list of plays that shows, mathematically, what your best lineups are, your best set plays, etc, why wouldn't you want it to corroborate it with your observations?

Amazing isn't it? We see the same thing and both think is supports our point. I'd say impasse reached.


I don't understand this response relative to the post that you're quoting.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 2:09 pm    Post subject:

hoopla wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
hoopla wrote:
Here's the reality i've been saying in that other thread.

Analytics have been around since eye balls have been around. Lets get all the "i love analytics and you better jump on it too" guys to agree here. Because if you dont then thats the real argument. Not acknowledging the fact that this is not NEW. Its an upgrade from the original eyeballs, to guys being called scouts writing something down that they've witnessed and passing it on to the coach or player(s). to now electronically tracking players on the court, while also using eyeballs(scouts) to bring in the information and tracking more and more data(big data). to pass along to the coach, GM, Players.


If this is really how you conceive of analytics, then you've missed the boat. This is like saying that the atomic bomb wasn't really a change because countries had been building bombs for a long time. Modern analytics is a fundamental change in the way that teams operate, evaluate players, and design schemes. If you can't accept that, you're just in denial.


explain to me how things have changed. then let me respond to each change you see.


I will give this a shot:

In every human endeavor, technology and experience have given us better methods to measure those activities. This is true in basketball as well. When i first started watching basketball, teams did little film study, limited scouting, and had very little data to work with. technology progressed and teams had more and more specific detail to work with. Could watch more film and see more than even an army of scouts could digest. Further technological advancements allowed the compression and sorting of even more film (digitally), to the point that an average nba team has the ability to pull, for example, every single tony parker initiated set for individual games, seasons, vs different opponents and situations, and you can break it down to specific actions, like, "let's see every high screen and roll by oarker broken down by what he does off of it". Thats powerful. There are a half dozen cameras taking 25-30 frames per second every single second of every single nba game, from multiple angles. And then we get to the fact that beyond that, the technology allows us to break every single play down by type and result. A team can know every single result of every parker pick and roll, and account for it numerically. The outflow of this knowledge is rather than by feel (which is important), they can know exactly what works to what degree in any scenario they can hink to plug into the computer, and compare it to every other scenario. This allows you to in macro and micro know what works better than something else, and why (because you can evaluate vs defensive reactions and sets). Or how to maximize a particular thing, or conversely, how best to defend it. That is a huge change. The average fan with access to nba.com (which only has tip of the iceberg levels of the stuff available) can know more about what does and doesn't work and to what degree than the best talent evaluators only a generation ago. Empirically. Mate that data with basketball knowledge and talent, and the information becomes exponentially more valuable. It is why, for example, Greg Popovich admits he runs stuff he doesnt like (and didnt run before having this knowledge, despite being one of the best basketball minds around), because it works.

And then there are the illegal defense rules changes, designed specifically to minimize the value of two specific things: the post and wing isolation plays. Anyone who honestly tells you they don't see how the rules changes affect the post up simply doesn't know how and why the post up was an effective play to begin with.

Fwiw, the anti analytics pushback is coming from three predominant groups:

Active executives, coaches, and players who came up before the advent and implementation of this technology, for the simple reason of survival. If they aren't making decisions and implementing actions based on current information, they risk both perceptual and actual irrelevance, either of which can cost them their job. And there is also the fear of whether or not they can assimilate and use the new information to a level that retains the advantages they had previously.

Then there are the former players and coaches who see the new school as a threat to their legacy, and even more prevalent, to their efficacy as media commentators. Hard for charles barkley to comment in the spurs offense with any degree of insight when he doesn't understand the underlying data and impetus for it. Sonhe poo poos it, because at the very least, that gives him some emotional credibility with the next group.

Fans are notoriously poor at understanding even basic nuances of the game. Their knowledge is shallow and dogmatic, and suddenly having to compare basic canon with new info is problematic. Plus, like with most human things, tradition is very important. New ways of thinking attack tradition. Render basic truths obsolete. So humans tend to reject change. It is why, for example, large segments of the population reject evolution, not because it hasn't been empirically proved beyond even a credible doubt, but because it would make them change a comfortable world view. The earth is flat and six thousand years old (fwiw, that second assertion is every bit as indefensible as the first, and was defended every bit as vigorously for a very long time).
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KobeBryantCliffordBrown
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 3:43 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Here's an example of the kind of information analytics can give you. And if you don't feel it is valuable or interesting, then that's fine, but I'd personally love to get my hands on this information just because I find it fascinating.

http://grantland.com/features/expected-value-possession-nba-analytics/

It's a long article, and a couple of years old, but this one speaks to EPV. Expected Possession Value. This is equivalent to EV (Expected Value) in statistics. Basically, what is the value of a particular event, regardless of outcome. Events with more positive EV are ones you want to pursue because the POTENTIAL reward outweighs the risk and over the course of time, you will profit. Here's a simple example:

- If I charge you $1 to guess a number from 1 to 10, and will award you $10 for guessing correctly, then your EV = $0. It doesn't matter what happens on a specific outcome, because over time you will net even so each go around is worth nothing.

- But what if I were to charge you $1 to guess a number from 1 to 10, and would award you $20 for guessing correctly? Then your EV would be +$1.00 and you should take that bet. Regardless of whether you guess right or wrong, your guess alone is essentially earning you $1.00 in profit every time you play.

So in basketball, they can do this but instead of money, they can look at the EV of a particular event (a possession) where the value is points. And what's really cool is that they can freeze a singular moment in time and based on what is happening (who is on the court, where are they standing, what are they doing) they can determine the expected value of that moment in time.

Quote:
"The play begins with the Cavs leading by two points and just under nine seconds remaining in the game. As Parker initiates the offensive sequence, the model estimates that the possession is worth 0.97 points.

After Duncan’s screen frees up Parker to attack Zeller, EPV actually decreases as Parker penetrates through the midrange closely marked by Zeller. But as he gets close to the basket, the EPV surges to 1.36. Parker’s dribble drive has already elevated that value of the possession by 0.39 points — but he’s not done. He increases the value of the play further when he fires that crazy baseline pass to Leonard, standing open in the corner. EPV accounts for both Leonard’s great corner shooting prowess and that he is wide open. As a result, the EPV peaks at 1.75 as Parker throws the game-winning assist. There is a slight decrease in value, to 1.58, as Dion Waiters frantically attempts to close out Leonard, but Waiters is too late."


You can do this for every single in bounds play that you've ever run (since the cameras were put in and data captured of course) and determine which plays give you the greatest likelihood of success.

How could someone refuse that kind of information? You don't have to make your decision based solely on it, but if I could give you a list of plays that shows, mathematically, what your best lineups are, your best set plays, etc, why wouldn't you want it to corroborate it with your observations?

Amazing isn't it? We see the same thing and both think is supports our point. I'd say impasse reached.


I don't understand this response relative to the post that you're quoting.



Yes, I get that.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 4:29 pm    Post subject:

KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
Amazing isn't it? We see the same thing and both think is supports our point. I'd say impasse reached.


What do you mean see the same thing? Last year, you "saw" (and even punctuated your observation by stating it was one made by a medical doctor) no reason Kobe should need to play reduced minutes when he was averaging 35+ MPG. A couple of weeks later, Kobe was skipping back to backs, playing reduced minutes, and was shortly thereafter out for the season. It shall be noted the analytics suggested to Byron Scott that Kobe should be playing fewer minutes, a suggestion he ignored until January-ish to which Scott replied.... "better late than never". So no, you didn't see the same thing as what the analytics were suggesting.

And you also can't tell me which Spurs set yields the greatest likelihood of success at any given moment of a game. (Of course, you'll probably disingenuously say you can, but everyone knows you can't). If you watch enough tape, you might be able to tell me plays are likely to convert in general, but you won't reasonably be able to tell me which singular set play gives you the absolute greatest likelihood to convert given all of the variables on the court at that precise moment in time.

Conceivably, I could have a tablet in hand, and in seconds on a timeout, determine say, the top 5 set plays in terms of EPV given current game conditions (i.e. home/road, teammates, time on clock, opponents, referees, fatigue factor of both team and opponents, injury status, trends, pressure performance, crowd noise factor, temperature, etc) and then lean on my experience and gut instinct as a coach to select the one I feel most comfortable with.

At worst, you can use the data to confirm your gut instincts because no one's gut is right 100% of the time. Not even yours KBCB.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 5:07 pm    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
Amazing isn't it? We see the same thing and both think is supports our point. I'd say impasse reached.


What do you mean see the same thing? Last year, you "saw" (and even punctuated your observation by stating it was one made by a medical doctor) no reason Kobe should need to play reduced minutes when he was averaging 35+ MPG. A couple of weeks later, Kobe was skipping back to backs, playing reduced minutes, and was shortly thereafter out for the season. It shall be noted the analytics suggested to Byron Scott that Kobe should be playing fewer minutes, a suggestion he ignored until January-ish to which Scott replied.... "better late than never". So no, you didn't see the same thing as what the analytics were suggesting.

And you also can't tell me which Spurs set yields the greatest likelihood of success at any given moment of a game. (Of course, you'll probably disingenuously say you can, but everyone knows you can't). If you watch enough tape, you might be able to tell me plays are likely to convert in general, but you won't reasonably be able to tell me which singular set play gives you the absolute greatest likelihood to convert given all of the variables on the court at that precise moment in time.

Conceivably, I could have a tablet in hand, and in seconds on a timeout, determine say, the top 5 set plays in terms of EPV given current game conditions (i.e. home/road, teammates, time on clock, opponents, referees, fatigue factor of both team and opponents, injury status, trends, pressure performance, crowd noise factor, temperature, etc) and then lean on my experience and gut instinct as a coach to select the one I feel most comfortable with.

At worst, you can use the data to confirm your gut instincts because no one's gut is right 100% of the time. Not even yours KBCB.



Your post proves nor suggests nothing. But I will say that we have no idea what happened with Kobe last season. He has obviously been less than forthcoming about his physical ailments. That he dropped off doesn't prove anything but that I was wrong about my prediction about what kind of season he'd have. It says nothing about cause.
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GoldenThroat
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 5:09 pm    Post subject:

KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Here's an example of the kind of information analytics can give you. And if you don't feel it is valuable or interesting, then that's fine, but I'd personally love to get my hands on this information just because I find it fascinating.

http://grantland.com/features/expected-value-possession-nba-analytics/

It's a long article, and a couple of years old, but this one speaks to EPV. Expected Possession Value. This is equivalent to EV (Expected Value) in statistics. Basically, what is the value of a particular event, regardless of outcome. Events with more positive EV are ones you want to pursue because the POTENTIAL reward outweighs the risk and over the course of time, you will profit. Here's a simple example:

- If I charge you $1 to guess a number from 1 to 10, and will award you $10 for guessing correctly, then your EV = $0. It doesn't matter what happens on a specific outcome, because over time you will net even so each go around is worth nothing.

- But what if I were to charge you $1 to guess a number from 1 to 10, and would award you $20 for guessing correctly? Then your EV would be +$1.00 and you should take that bet. Regardless of whether you guess right or wrong, your guess alone is essentially earning you $1.00 in profit every time you play.

So in basketball, they can do this but instead of money, they can look at the EV of a particular event (a possession) where the value is points. And what's really cool is that they can freeze a singular moment in time and based on what is happening (who is on the court, where are they standing, what are they doing) they can determine the expected value of that moment in time.

Quote:
"The play begins with the Cavs leading by two points and just under nine seconds remaining in the game. As Parker initiates the offensive sequence, the model estimates that the possession is worth 0.97 points.

After Duncan’s screen frees up Parker to attack Zeller, EPV actually decreases as Parker penetrates through the midrange closely marked by Zeller. But as he gets close to the basket, the EPV surges to 1.36. Parker’s dribble drive has already elevated that value of the possession by 0.39 points — but he’s not done. He increases the value of the play further when he fires that crazy baseline pass to Leonard, standing open in the corner. EPV accounts for both Leonard’s great corner shooting prowess and that he is wide open. As a result, the EPV peaks at 1.75 as Parker throws the game-winning assist. There is a slight decrease in value, to 1.58, as Dion Waiters frantically attempts to close out Leonard, but Waiters is too late."


You can do this for every single in bounds play that you've ever run (since the cameras were put in and data captured of course) and determine which plays give you the greatest likelihood of success.

How could someone refuse that kind of information? You don't have to make your decision based solely on it, but if I could give you a list of plays that shows, mathematically, what your best lineups are, your best set plays, etc, why wouldn't you want it to corroborate it with your observations?

Amazing isn't it? We see the same thing and both think is supports our point. I'd say impasse reached.


I don't understand this response relative to the post that you're quoting.



Yes, I get that.


Spare me this garbage, like I'm somehow unable to see some salient point that you're making. You consistently resort to glib condescension when you can't argue a point coherently.

Here's a quote of yours from earlier in the thread, in reference to analytics.

KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
It's a joke because it can't possible account for a game as dynamic as basketball.


Here is the first damn sentence/synopsis of that article.

Quote:
With an ocean of new statistical information available, the NBA could be on the verge of understanding the value of every single movement on the court.


Not only does this article not support your point, it blatantly contradicts it.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 5:16 pm    Post subject:

KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Here's an example of the kind of information analytics can give you. And if you don't feel it is valuable or interesting, then that's fine, but I'd personally love to get my hands on this information just because I find it fascinating.

http://grantland.com/features/expected-value-possession-nba-analytics/

It's a long article, and a couple of years old, but this one speaks to EPV. Expected Possession Value. This is equivalent to EV (Expected Value) in statistics. Basically, what is the value of a particular event, regardless of outcome. Events with more positive EV are ones you want to pursue because the POTENTIAL reward outweighs the risk and over the course of time, you will profit. Here's a simple example:

- If I charge you $1 to guess a number from 1 to 10, and will award you $10 for guessing correctly, then your EV = $0. It doesn't matter what happens on a specific outcome, because over time you will net even so each go around is worth nothing.

- But what if I were to charge you $1 to guess a number from 1 to 10, and would award you $20 for guessing correctly? Then your EV would be +$1.00 and you should take that bet. Regardless of whether you guess right or wrong, your guess alone is essentially earning you $1.00 in profit every time you play.

So in basketball, they can do this but instead of money, they can look at the EV of a particular event (a possession) where the value is points. And what's really cool is that they can freeze a singular moment in time and based on what is happening (who is on the court, where are they standing, what are they doing) they can determine the expected value of that moment in time.

Quote:
"The play begins with the Cavs leading by two points and just under nine seconds remaining in the game. As Parker initiates the offensive sequence, the model estimates that the possession is worth 0.97 points.

After Duncan’s screen frees up Parker to attack Zeller, EPV actually decreases as Parker penetrates through the midrange closely marked by Zeller. But as he gets close to the basket, the EPV surges to 1.36. Parker’s dribble drive has already elevated that value of the possession by 0.39 points — but he’s not done. He increases the value of the play further when he fires that crazy baseline pass to Leonard, standing open in the corner. EPV accounts for both Leonard’s great corner shooting prowess and that he is wide open. As a result, the EPV peaks at 1.75 as Parker throws the game-winning assist. There is a slight decrease in value, to 1.58, as Dion Waiters frantically attempts to close out Leonard, but Waiters is too late."


You can do this for every single in bounds play that you've ever run (since the cameras were put in and data captured of course) and determine which plays give you the greatest likelihood of success.

How could someone refuse that kind of information? You don't have to make your decision based solely on it, but if I could give you a list of plays that shows, mathematically, what your best lineups are, your best set plays, etc, why wouldn't you want it to corroborate it with your observations?

Amazing isn't it? We see the same thing and both think is supports our point. I'd say impasse reached.


I don't understand this response relative to the post that you're quoting.



Yes, I get that.


No, actually you don't. If you did, you'd realize that GT was actually gently implying something that he isn't saying outright, because he is polite and prefers socratic inquiry to calling someone out (not to mention the fact that he knows more about basketball at a technical level than you and i combined, and then some).

To put it in clear and direct terms (something i have an advantage on gt in ), what he's saying is that you're completely and deliberately full of it. He's saying that your clear and demonstrated belief in Kobe's supremecy, and your belief that analytics somehow diminish that (ironically, analytics confirm two important things about Kobe: that his innate talent and developed skill allow him to efficiently do things that are on average inefficient, and that because of this and his ability to draw hordes of defenders, he creates analytically friendly shots for teammates).

He's saying that you are playing semantics and obfuscation here, which goes along with deliberately prevaricating the FACT that in your profession, the drugs and treatments and diagnostics you use are all developed on an analytical basis, and verified through them, and that your use of them is guided by the analytical information gathered over years and millions of cases, and that your attempt to say they aren't is both spectacularly transparent and specious.
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