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Jim99187 Franchise Player
Joined: 03 Jan 2014 Posts: 22138
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Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 10:59 am Post subject: |
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Wilkes52 wrote: | On paper, the Lakers looks improved compared to last season. I have to wonder whether the Lakers' talent improvements made were actually just enough to remain in lock-step with similar progress eslewhere. Our Western conference fellow lottery level clubs made some changes too:
Sacramento: added Rondo, W-C-S
Minnesota: added Towns, Garnett, Jones (Martin, Rubio healthy)
Denver: added Mudiay, Jokic, Johnson (dumped Lawson)
If Laker player changes net-out to no better than these other bozos, our team may be dog-paddling back into lottery waters next Spring, even if the team is marginally improved. |
this is not the right way to look at things.
Denver and Minny will give tons of mins to their young core to grow. thats their plan.
Garnett was added for the sole purpose of mentoring their young guys. i dont see garnett averaging 15-20mins for 40-50 games
while the lakers will try to win actual games. depending on kobe's health i see then 7-10 range |
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greenfrog Retired Number
Joined: 02 Jan 2011 Posts: 36081 Location: 502 Bad Gateway
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Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 11:22 am Post subject: |
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25 wins.
I'm interested to see what the Vegas line will be. |
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yinoma2001 Retired Number
Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Posts: 119487
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Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 11:48 am Post subject: |
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greenfrog wrote: | 25 wins.
I'm interested to see what the Vegas line will be. |
That's your optimistic number, or worst case scenario?
For me:
Ceiling: 38-40 wins
Floor: 27-28 wins _________________ From 2-10 to the Western Conference Finals |
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greenfrog Retired Number
Joined: 02 Jan 2011 Posts: 36081 Location: 502 Bad Gateway
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Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 11:55 am Post subject: |
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yinoma2001 wrote: | greenfrog wrote: | 25 wins.
I'm interested to see what the Vegas line will be. |
That's your optimistic number, or worst case scenario?
For me:
Ceiling: 38-40 wins
Floor: 27-28 wins |
That's my realistic number...which to answer your question I guess means worst case scenario. |
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LA_Lakers_Rule Franchise Player
Joined: 23 Aug 2004 Posts: 19482 Location: The X-Files
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Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 1:57 pm Post subject: |
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yinoma2001 wrote: | Is this a joke? Hibbert, Lou, bass, a more experienced clarkson and black, and DLO already make them better. |
+1 ... and don't forget Randle.... not to mention Nance is really looking good... _________________ Rule = win titles
Good judgment comes from experience and a lot of that comes from bad judgment. - Will Rogers ... |
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LA_Lakers_Rule Franchise Player
Joined: 23 Aug 2004 Posts: 19482 Location: The X-Files
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Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 1:59 pm Post subject: |
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A reasonably healthy team = no less than 35 wins _________________ Rule = win titles
Good judgment comes from experience and a lot of that comes from bad judgment. - Will Rogers ... |
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lakerjoshua Franchise Player
Joined: 28 Nov 2007 Posts: 11277 Location: Bay Area
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Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 4:00 pm Post subject: |
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They will be for sure more fun to watch so that makes them a better team. |
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textbook Star Player
Joined: 27 Mar 2015 Posts: 2181
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Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 4:31 pm Post subject: |
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price/Lin vs. Dlo/clarkson
Ellington/Clark vs. Clarkson/Williams
Johnson/Young vs. Kobe/Young
Boozer/Davis vs. Bass/Randle
Hill/Sacre vs. Hibbert/Black
IN: Russell, Kobe, Williams, Bass, Hibbert, Randle, Brown, Nance, Upshaw*
OUT: Lin, Price, Ellington, Johnson, Hill, Davis.
Yeah, I think we got a little better. |
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LA_Lakers_Rule Franchise Player
Joined: 23 Aug 2004 Posts: 19482 Location: The X-Files
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Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 6:50 pm Post subject: |
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greenfrog wrote: | yinoma2001 wrote: | greenfrog wrote: | 25 wins.
I'm interested to see what the Vegas line will be. |
That's your optimistic number, or worst case scenario?
For me:
Ceiling: 38-40 wins
Floor: 27-28 wins |
That's my realistic number...which to answer your question I guess means worst case scenario. |
Or maybe rather as a "realistic number" it would be to say in your view 25 wins would be the "mean" number of wins in your opinion ("middle of the road number" so to speak) equivalent of which would be equal to 33-34 wins in the case of using yinoma2001's overall numbers..... I'm comfortable with yinoma2001's numbers, but will still say that a reasonably healthy Lakers roster should not do any worse than 35 wins.... that is considering that Russell, Kobe, Williams, Bass, Hibbert, Randle, Brown, Nance, Upshaw represent players that were not available last year as compared to Lin, Price, Ellington, Johnson, Hill, Davis who are no longer on the team none of which provided very much consistency at all overall last year.... _________________ Rule = win titles
Good judgment comes from experience and a lot of that comes from bad judgment. - Will Rogers ... |
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LakerLanny Retired Number
Joined: 24 Oct 2001 Posts: 47581
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Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:04 pm Post subject: |
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yinoma2001 wrote: | greenfrog wrote: | 25 wins.
I'm interested to see what the Vegas line will be. |
That's your optimistic number, or worst case scenario?
For me:
Ceiling: 38-40 wins
Floor: 27-28 wins |
That sounds about right.
It is really hard to envision better than .500 at best if everything goes well in a tough Western Conference.
There aren't a lot of Eastern Conference walkovers on our schedule unfortunately. _________________ Love, Laker Lanny |
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Liam_x7 Star Player
Joined: 20 Feb 2013 Posts: 1055
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Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:21 pm Post subject: |
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Be lucky to win 30 games with this Roster seriously.
Russell is a rookie and didnt do anything remotely worth anything at the summer league, Clarkson is a nice piece but you need way more to compete in the west, Kobe at the 3 is going to be a complete train wreck IMO, He'l get his shots but that wont amount to Wins, look at last season, Randle + Hibbert wont give you offense at all IMO, Thats a bottom 5 starting team IMO, Absolute garbage, Plus a coach who doesn't believe in 3 point shots
Young + Williams are the only notable names worth mentioning off the bench, Decent players if played in the right system which is run and gun again something our garbage coach doesn't believe in. There's absolutley no chance we make the playoffs. Look at last seasons starting 5 compared with this, Lin, Kobe, Wes, Boozer + Hill, You would think that Lin, Kobe and Boozer would all average close 60 points between them, I mean Lin + Boozer should have been getting 15 a game each.
This Roster is a shambles look back to 2005 with a prime Kobe and decent pieces in Butler and Lamar still only won 34 games and that was a respectable Roster IMO
This Roster wont win 35 games no way in hell _________________ Lakers
Falcons |
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Lakerz113 Star Player
Joined: 15 Mar 2015 Posts: 2445
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Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:26 pm Post subject: |
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Blade wrote: | Be lucky to win 30 games with this Roster seriously.
Russell is a rookie and didnt do anything remotely worth anything at the summer league, Clarkson is a nice piece but you need way more to compete in the west, Kobe at the 3 is going to be a complete train wreck IMO, He'l get his shots but that wont amount to Wins, look at last season, Randle + Hibbert wont give you offense at all IMO, Thats a bottom 5 starting team IMO, Absolute garbage, Plus a coach who doesn't believe in 3 point shots
Young + Williams are the only notable names worth mentioning off the bench, Decent players if played in the right system which is run and gun again something our garbage coach doesn't believe in. There's absolutley no chance we make the playoffs. Look at last seasons starting 5 compared with this, Lin, Kobe, Wes, Boozer + Hill, You would think that Lin, Kobe and Boozer would all average close 60 points between them, I mean Lin + Boozer should have been getting 15 a game each.
This Roster is a shambles look back to 2005 with a prime Kobe and decent pieces in Butler and Lamar still only won 34 games and that was a respectable Roster IMO
This Roster wont win 35 games no way in hell |
My expectations are tapered but to say "no way in hell will they win 35 game" IMO is a little excessive. I think the roster has greatly improved. |
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waterman40 Star Player
Joined: 17 Jun 2003 Posts: 6287 Location: Central Coast
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Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:45 pm Post subject: |
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A lot of it depends on health, especially Kobe plays anywhere close to a full year and Hibbert is healthy, we are a 35-45 win team.
Hibbert over Davis
Bass over very old Boozer
Lou Williams over Wesley Johnson
Healthier Kobe vs. last year Kobe
Clarkson = Clarkson
Russell over Lin, at least in the long term
We improved virtually everywhere, and this allows us to bring in Randle slowly, which long term is a big plus for him. We did really good for not landing a big free agent. Of course we are going to try and play Clarkson-Russell a lot, and this will likely cost us some games in the learning phase, but should pay off in the following year.
We are not making the playoffs, but we should be better than last year. That's about all you can ask for. |
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venturalakersfan Retired Number
Joined: 14 Apr 2001 Posts: 144469 Location: The Gold Coast
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Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:11 am Post subject: |
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Lakerz113 wrote: | Blade wrote: | Be lucky to win 30 games with this Roster seriously.
Russell is a rookie and didnt do anything remotely worth anything at the summer league, Clarkson is a nice piece but you need way more to compete in the west, Kobe at the 3 is going to be a complete train wreck IMO, He'l get his shots but that wont amount to Wins, look at last season, Randle + Hibbert wont give you offense at all IMO, Thats a bottom 5 starting team IMO, Absolute garbage, Plus a coach who doesn't believe in 3 point shots
Young + Williams are the only notable names worth mentioning off the bench, Decent players if played in the right system which is run and gun again something our garbage coach doesn't believe in. There's absolutley no chance we make the playoffs. Look at last seasons starting 5 compared with this, Lin, Kobe, Wes, Boozer + Hill, You would think that Lin, Kobe and Boozer would all average close 60 points between them, I mean Lin + Boozer should have been getting 15 a game each.
This Roster is a shambles look back to 2005 with a prime Kobe and decent pieces in Butler and Lamar still only won 34 games and that was a respectable Roster IMO
This Roster wont win 35 games no way in hell |
My expectations are tapered but to say "no way in hell will they win 35 game" IMO is a little excessive. I think the roster has greatly improved. |
Not to mention that last season's starting 5 that he listed wasn't even last season's starting 5 for the majority of the season. _________________ RIP mom. 11-21-1933 to 6-14-2023. |
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70sdude Star Player
Joined: 05 Feb 2009 Posts: 4567
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Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:16 am Post subject: |
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Expected value for total wins: 35
Equates to slightly worse than the Suns last season.
40 wins or more ~ 10% chance
30 wins or less ~ 10% chance |
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greenfrog Retired Number
Joined: 02 Jan 2011 Posts: 36081 Location: 502 Bad Gateway
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Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 11:41 am Post subject: |
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LA_Lakers_Rule wrote: | greenfrog wrote: | yinoma2001 wrote: | greenfrog wrote: | 25 wins.
I'm interested to see what the Vegas line will be. |
That's your optimistic number, or worst case scenario?
For me:
Ceiling: 38-40 wins
Floor: 27-28 wins |
That's my realistic number...which to answer your question I guess means worst case scenario. |
Or maybe rather as a "realistic number" it would be to say in your view 25 wins would be the "mean" number of wins in your opinion ("middle of the road number" so to speak) equivalent of which would be equal to 33-34 wins in the case of using yinoma2001's overall numbers..... I'm comfortable with yinoma2001's numbers, but will still say that a reasonably healthy Lakers roster should not do any worse than 35 wins.... that is considering that Russell, Kobe, Williams, Bass, Hibbert, Randle, Brown, Nance, Upshaw represent players that were not available last year as compared to Lin, Price, Ellington, Johnson, Hill, Davis who are no longer on the team none of which provided very much consistency at all overall last year.... |
I can think of a couple scenarios where it could be worse than 25. Sure, the talent has increased, but so have possibly the personal agendas and selfishness. The Summer league was not encouraging on that front, and that wasn't even including whatever will be going on in Kobe and Swaggy's minds.
Last edited by greenfrog on Thu Jul 30, 2015 12:39 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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King Randle Star Player
Joined: 21 Jul 2014 Posts: 7313
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Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 12:23 pm Post subject: |
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This is a much better team that can win 35 games. If we added another decent player, preferably a SF, we can maybe get to .500. |
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WeDidItReddit Star Player
Joined: 10 May 2015 Posts: 1087
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Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 12:27 pm Post subject: |
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My guess is 33 games, plus or minus about 5 depending on development from our young guys and health. We will probably be at around 9-10 in the lottery |
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yinoma2001 Retired Number
Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Posts: 119487
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Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 12:34 pm Post subject: |
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I'm just happy that the talent level will be better. The talent may not be anywhere near its apex, but it'll be easier to root for guys we know will be here longer than 1 year (DLO, Randle, Clarkson, Nance, Brown, Lou Will, etc.).
Last year was a team of mercenaries, and Clarkson was the lone bright star. _________________ From 2-10 to the Western Conference Finals |
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greenfrog Retired Number
Joined: 02 Jan 2011 Posts: 36081 Location: 502 Bad Gateway
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Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 12:40 pm Post subject: |
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Ed Davis (last season), or Randle (this season)... which will be better? |
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Sina Star Player
Joined: 12 Jul 2015 Posts: 1812
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Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 1:56 pm Post subject: |
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Hibbert, Black, Sacre vs Davis, Black, Sacre
Bass, Randle, Nance vs Hill, Boozer, (Randle)
ABrown, Young vs Johnson, Young
Kobe, Clarkson vs (Kobe), Ellington, Lin
Russell, Williams vs Clarkson, Price
Comparing with last year:
C: Basically it's Hibbert vs Davis. Davis is more consistent and reliable. However, hisceiling is a serviceable backup at best. Hibbert was an all star center. Edge: This year. But it really depends on whether Hibbert can return to his all star self
PF: Bass is as good as Hill or Boozer. Randle and Nance are plus. Especially Randle, he could make a difference. Edge: this year. But it really depends on whether Randle can live up to expectation
SF: Basically, Johnson isn't an impact player. And Kobe may move to SF. Edge: This year. But it really depends on if Kobe can stay healthy
SG: If Kobe move to SF, it becomes Clarkson, JBrown vs Lin, Ellington. Last year's Clarkson is like Lin at Knicks' days. Edge: Even.
PG: Given Clarkson's performance, I expect Russell couldn't be better. But Lo is much for Price. Edge: This year.
To sum up, this year should be a team on paper. But it really depends on if Hibbert can recover, If Randle can live up to expectation, if Kobe can stay heathy... Obviously, this year's team have a higher ceiling.
However, when comparing with other western conference teams, I don't think we've edge over Utah, Kings, Timberwolves etc. 30-40 wins is likely and making playoff should be consider overachieve. |
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ice_cold Starting Rotation
Joined: 22 Jul 2014 Posts: 483
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Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:17 pm Post subject: |
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You have to hand it to OP he got some interesting discussion going on a slow week.
I really enjoyed all observations - especially 24's - about how this roster is more talented and better on many objective indicia.
I just wanted to say something about the separate question of how well they will fare this year. Like last year there will be a whole lotta new faces. Plus the important of those new players will be rookies.
The Thunder (as Seattle Supersonics) drafted Kevin Durant in 2007. How many games did they win in 2007-2008 season? 20.
In 2008, they drafted Russell Westbrook. How many games did they win that season? 23.
In 2009, they drafted James Harden. Finally they made the playoffs. They won 50 games - most in second half of sas |
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ice_cold Starting Rotation
Joined: 22 Jul 2014 Posts: 483
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Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:30 pm Post subject: |
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. season. But Thunder were bounced in the first round of playoffs in 2010. You might remember that - they lost to the Lakers.
n the 2010-2011 season OKC had 55 wins. They were dominant and reached Western Conference Finals. after that season they never looked back.
What does this history say about the Lakers' chances this year?
We shouldn't expect too much.
A good year might involve a really bad record but a lot of playing time for youngsters
I know I know /Lakers this year are a lot better than Thunder were the first two seasons they had Durant . . (We have Hibbert!). But still. It would be good to temper expectations
And just enjoy the development of Clarky, Julius, and the one they call Brown Sugar - D Lo - and I like to call the anointed one. Lakers are blessed to have such a great crop of rookies - let's just give them some space and time to grow |
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ice_cold Starting Rotation
Joined: 22 Jul 2014 Posts: 483
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Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:34 pm Post subject: |
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Small correction- in 2008 Thunder drafted both Westbrook AND Ibaka. They already had Durant. Think about that - they had these 3 players and were only able to win 23 games. |
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ice_cold Starting Rotation
Joined: 22 Jul 2014 Posts: 483
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Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:43 pm Post subject: |
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I also forget for these first three years they also had Jeff Green - when he was playing really well. Good enough to make NBA All-Rookie First Team along with Durant |
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