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cvballa
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Joined: 04 Aug 2005
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 Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:27 am Post subject: This year is nothing like last year |
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I see a lot of pessimism about the upcoming season and many people comparing it to last season. They think cuz we won 21 games last year this season can't be much better. Academics call this recency bias. Happens all the time in the investment world.
The fact is that only 2 players from last years rotation will be in the rotation this year. Clarkson and black. And black could be beat out.
This is a completely new and different team. Not saying we will be great or even make the playoffs but people need to stop using last year as a baseline expectation for this year.
Last years stock market is very different than this years. Last years lakers are also very different than this year.
Don't have recency bias. |
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ringfinger
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| Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:59 am Post subject: |
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Recency bias isn't the culprit here.
I haven't seen one person suggest that we'll be a losing team again because we were a losing team last year. (That would be recency bias).
What I have seen is people look at the roster, and make the determination that we won't win many games, just like we weren't able to last year.
That isn't recency bias. It might be a faulty premise, but it isn't recency bias. |
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Legacy
Star Player
Joined: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 7054
Location: So. Californ-I-A
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| Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:00 am Post subject: |
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| What 2 players are you referring to? |
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bucketsandbags
Sixth Man
Joined: 14 Oct 2005
Posts: 93
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| Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:08 am Post subject: |
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| Last year we had a hodgepodge roster and injury issues from losing Randle game 1, Nash ruled out and Kobe later in the season. This year we have a promising, young core and some excited new veterans. I don't know if we'll make the playoffs (even if we were in the east), but I'm personally excited to see this team go out there and compete. Building chemistry in our young core and ending the season as a much improved team from the start is what I'm hoping for. |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:16 am Post subject: |
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The motivations for this year and last year are entirely different.
They aren't tanking this year, and last year it took major injuries to finally convince the Lakers to stealth tank.
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venturalakersfan
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Location: The Gold Coast
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| Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:50 am Post subject: |
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They could have won more games last season if they had wanted to, but chose the draft pick instead. This season they will be putting guys in positions to succeed, unlike last season. Of course it all depends on health, but if they can stay healthy they will pass last season's win total by March.
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70sdude
Star Player
Joined: 05 Feb 2009
Posts: 4567
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| Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:11 am Post subject: |
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You're right. Last season is known and in the books. The upcoming season is a complete unknown: from training camp through playoffs.
All we have to go on is what we think this roster can do. It's OK to voice what each of us think is possible, what's likely, and what level of optimism is held. |
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activeverb
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Joined: 17 Jun 2006
Posts: 37470
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| Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:24 am Post subject: Re: This year is nothing like last year |
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| cvballa wrote: | I see a lot of pessimism about the upcoming season and many people comparing it to last season. They think cuz we won 21 games last year this season can't be much better. Academics call this recency bias. Happens all the time in the investment world.
The fact is that only 2 players from last years rotation will be in the rotation this year. Clarkson and black. And black could be beat out.
This is a completely new and different team. Not saying we will be great or even make the playoffs but people need to stop using last year as a baseline expectation for this year.
Last years stock market is very different than this years. Last years lakers are also very different than this year.
Don't have recency bias. |
I don't think it's recency bias.
We have a bunch of untested rookies. Anyone's guess how Randle and Russell will pan out. Their summer league play didn't excite anyone.
Kobe is 37 and has barely played in two years because of injuries. Hibbert has floundered and you can't be enthralled with his attitude. I don't expect either of them to be around after this year.
The rest of the roster is nothing special journeymen.
If you look at this roster in a vaccuum, it's hard to predict success without putting on the rose colored glasses.
They might well win more games than last year. But I don't expect them to be good. I just hope the rookies start to develop. |
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LakersMDGurl
Franchise Player
Joined: 24 Jun 2005
Posts: 18015
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| Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:29 am Post subject: Re: This year is nothing like last year |
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| activeverb wrote: | | cvballa wrote: | I see a lot of pessimism about the upcoming season and many people comparing it to last season. They think cuz we won 21 games last year this season can't be much better. Academics call this recency bias. Happens all the time in the investment world.
The fact is that only 2 players from last years rotation will be in the rotation this year. Clarkson and black. And black could be beat out.
This is a completely new and different team. Not saying we will be great or even make the playoffs but people need to stop using last year as a baseline expectation for this year.
Last years stock market is very different than this years. Last years lakers are also very different than this year.
Don't have recency bias. |
I don't think it's recency bias.
We have a bunch of untested rookies. Anyone's guess how Randle and Russell will pan out. Their summer league play didn't excite anyone.
Kobe is 37 and has barely played in two years because of injuries. Hibbert has floundered and you can't be enthralled with his attitude. I don't expect either of them to be around after this year.
The rest of the roster is nothing special journeymen.
If you look at this roster in a vaccuum, it's hard to predict success without putting on the rose colored glasses.
They might well win more games than last year. But I don't expect them to be good. I just hope the rookies start to develop. |
We good on paper
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DLaker
Star Player
Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1539
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| Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:34 am Post subject: |
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100% agree. New Team. There is not one player that we lost did we not get a better player for this year. Hibbert presence alone should change the outlook of this team.
Hibbert & Bass > Hill, Ed & Boozer (only wish Ed stayed)
Williams > Lin & Wayne
Both offensively and defensively IMO
Very Optimistic this season, but realistic that our only chance to make the playoff is if our young make a big leap this season.
Rk Player Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% eFG% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Wesley Johnson 27 76 59 2245 286 691 .414 91 259 .351 195 432 .451 .480 90 112 .804 67 252 319 124 59 45 87 162 753
2 Jeremy Lin 26 74 30 1907 277 654 .424 65 176 .369 212 478 .444 .473 213 268 .795 26 170 196 339 82 32 166 189 832
3 Jordan Hill 27 70 57 1874 357 777 .459 3 11 .273 354 766 .462 .461 124 168 .738 174 382 556 103 34 52 106 164 841
4 Ed Davis 25 79 24 1840 282 469 .601 0 0 282 469 .601 .601 92 189 .487 230 370 600 94 49 98 58 202 656
5 Carlos Boozer 33 71 26 1692 371 743 .499 0 0 371 743 .499 .499 94 150 .627 111 371 482 95 41 12 92 184 836
6 Wayne Ellington 27 65 36 1675 254 617 .412 90 243 .370 164 374 .439 .485 52 64 .813 31 179 210 105 33 2 50 77 650
7 Jordan Clarkson 22 59 38 1476 267 596 .448 38 121 .314 229 475 .482 .480 131 158 .829 56 135 191 206 51 12 96 109 703
8 Ryan Kelly 23 52 34 1233 104 309 .337 45 134 .336 59 175 .337 .409 79 95 .832 13 133 146 92 30 24 37 118 332
9 Kobe Bryant 36 35 35 1207 266 713 .373 54 184 .293 212 529 .401 .411 196 241 .813 26 173 199 197 47 7 128 65 782
10 Robert Sacre 25 67 18 1133 126 306 .412 0 1 .000 126 305 .413 .412 55 82 .671 89 144 233 55 28 43 36 121 307
11 Nick Young 29 42 0 1000 174 476 .366 83 225 .369 91 251 .363 .453 132 148 .892 17 79 96 41 23 11 44 83 563
12 Ronnie Price 31 43 20 982 77 223 .345 31 109 .284 46 114 .404 .415 36 45 .800 19 50 69 165 67 4 52 118 221
13 Tarik Black 23 38 27 803 112 190 .589 0 0 112 190 .589 .589 50 89 .562 84 157 241 34 13 22 29 102 274
14 Jabari Brown 22 19 5 568 70 170 .412 23 62 .371 47 108 .435 .479 64 85 .753 3 33 36 40 12 2 32 33 227
15 Dwight Buycks 25 6 0 123 18 40 .450 7 11 .636 11 29 .379 .538 9 10 .900 2 10 12 14 3 0 12 3 52
16 Xavier Henry 23 9 0 86 3 13 .231 0 0 3 13 .231 .231 14 24 .583 2 2 4 3 3 0 3 6 20
17 Vander Blue 22 2 1 74 9 30 .300 2 10 .200 7 20 .350 .333 2 5 .400 2 7 9 8 3 0 6 4 22
18 Julius Randle 20 1 0 14 1 3 .333 0 0 1 3 .333 .333 0 2 .000 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2
Team Totals 82 19930 3054 7020 .435 532 1546 .344 2522 5474 .461 .473 1433 1935 .741 952 2647 3599 1715 578 366 1086 1741 8073 |
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ringfinger
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Joined: 08 Oct 2013
Posts: 29418
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| Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:42 am Post subject: Re: This year is nothing like last year |
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| activeverb wrote: | | cvballa wrote: | I see a lot of pessimism about the upcoming season and many people comparing it to last season. They think cuz we won 21 games last year this season can't be much better. Academics call this recency bias. Happens all the time in the investment world.
The fact is that only 2 players from last years rotation will be in the rotation this year. Clarkson and black. And black could be beat out.
This is a completely new and different team. Not saying we will be great or even make the playoffs but people need to stop using last year as a baseline expectation for this year.
Last years stock market is very different than this years. Last years lakers are also very different than this year.
Don't have recency bias. |
I don't think it's recency bias.
We have a bunch of untested rookies. Anyone's guess how Randle and Russell will pan out. Their summer league play didn't excite anyone.
Kobe is 37 and has barely played in two years because of injuries. Hibbert has floundered and you can't be enthralled with his attitude. I don't expect either of them to be around after this year.
The rest of the roster is nothing special journeymen.
If you look at this roster in a vaccuum, it's hard to predict success without putting on the rose colored glasses.
They might well win more games than last year. But I don't expect them to be good. I just hope the rookies start to develop. |
Yeah. The irony is that his claim regarding recency bias is the result of attribution bias! |
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activeverb
Retired Number
Joined: 17 Jun 2006
Posts: 37470
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| Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 12:35 pm Post subject: Re: This year is nothing like last year |
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| LakersMDGurl wrote: | | activeverb wrote: | | cvballa wrote: | I see a lot of pessimism about the upcoming season and many people comparing it to last season. They think cuz we won 21 games last year this season can't be much better. Academics call this recency bias. Happens all the time in the investment world.
The fact is that only 2 players from last years rotation will be in the rotation this year. Clarkson and black. And black could be beat out.
This is a completely new and different team. Not saying we will be great or even make the playoffs but people need to stop using last year as a baseline expectation for this year.
Last years stock market is very different than this years. Last years lakers are also very different than this year.
Don't have recency bias. |
I don't think it's recency bias.
We have a bunch of untested rookies. Anyone's guess how Randle and Russell will pan out. Their summer league play didn't excite anyone.
Kobe is 37 and has barely played in two years because of injuries. Hibbert has floundered and you can't be enthralled with his attitude. I don't expect either of them to be around after this year.
The rest of the roster is nothing special journeymen.
If you look at this roster in a vaccuum, it's hard to predict success without putting on the rose colored glasses.
They might well win more games than last year. But I don't expect them to be good. I just hope the rookies start to develop. |
We good on paper |
Don't know what you mean by that. |
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cvballa
Starting Rotation
Joined: 04 Aug 2005
Posts: 565
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| Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 5:30 pm Post subject: Re: This year is nothing like last year |
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| ringfinger wrote: | | activeverb wrote: | | cvballa wrote: | I see a lot of pessimism about the upcoming season and many people comparing it to last season. They think cuz we won 21 games last year this season can't be much better. Academics call this recency bias. Happens all the time in the investment world.
The fact is that only 2 players from last years rotation will be in the rotation this year. Clarkson and black. And black could be beat out.
This is a completely new and different team. Not saying we will be great or even make the playoffs but people need to stop using last year as a baseline expectation for this year.
Last years stock market is very different than this years. Last years lakers are also very different than this year.
Don't have recency bias. |
I don't think it's recency bias.
We have a bunch of untested rookies. Anyone's guess how Randle and Russell will pan out. Their summer league play didn't excite anyone.
Kobe is 37 and has barely played in two years because of injuries. Hibbert has floundered and you can't be enthralled with his attitude. I don't expect either of them to be around after this year.
The rest of the roster is nothing special journeymen.
If you look at this roster in a vaccuum, it's hard to predict success without putting on the rose colored glasses.
They might well win more games than last year. But I don't expect them to be good. I just hope the rookies start to develop. |
Yeah. The irony is that his claim regarding recency bias is the result of attribution bias! |
I'm not optimistic or pessimistic about this Lakers team. I fully admit it can go either way. Huge range of possibilities. From 20-45 wins.
I just hate when people even think about last season as a starting point to think about this season. Its fresh and new! Hard to know anything until about 20-25 games into the season. |
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EmoDias
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Joined: 15 Aug 2010
Posts: 266
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| Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 5:34 pm Post subject: |
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What people are doing is looking at the Lakers without looking at their counter-parts. Don't be so adamant about writing the Lakers off just yet. There is no argument that the first six playoff spots will be occupied but after that the last two remaining spots are wide open. This is also not taking into account for injuries that can happen to any team, which can open up an additional spot or two. As I see it, the other 8 teams remaining aren't that much better on paper than the Lakers. It will be up to a combination of chemistry, coaching, and determination of each team, barring talent alone, to determine who will make it into the postseason. If you look it this way, I like the Lakers' chances. I'm not saying they are guaranteed to make it, I'm just saying they have a definite chance.
1.Warriors
2.Spurs
3.Thunders
4.Clippers
5.Grizzlies
6.Rockets
7.
8.
Lakers, Pelicans, Suns, Mavs, Jazz, Kings, Nuggets, Wolves, Blazers |
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pio2u
Retired Number
Joined: 26 Dec 2012
Posts: 54574
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| Posted: Fri Jul 31, 2015 3:08 am Post subject: |
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| EmoDias wrote: | What people are doing is looking at the Lakers without looking at their counter-parts. Don't be so adamant about writing the Lakers off just yet. There is no argument that the first six playoff spots will be occupied but after that the last two remaining spots are wide open. This is also not taking into account for injuries that can happen to any team, which can open up an additional spot or two. As I see it, the other 8 teams remaining aren't that much better on paper than the Lakers. It will be up to a combination of chemistry, coaching, and determination of each team, barring talent alone, to determine who will make it into the postseason. If you look it this way, I like the Lakers' chances. I'm not saying they are guaranteed to make it, I'm just saying they have a definite chance.
1.Warriors
2.Spurs
3.Thunders
4.Clippers
5.Grizzlies
6.Rockets
7.
8.
Lakers, Pelicans, Suns, Mavs, Jazz, Kings, Nuggets, Wolves, Blazers |
The West will, once again, be BRUTAL. |
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Shaber
Star Player
Joined: 12 Mar 2006
Posts: 3732
Location: The other side
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| Posted: Fri Jul 31, 2015 4:35 am Post subject: |
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Lakers need a much better coach to have success.
And we improved significantly only at the C spot. While giving back at the PG (Lin was much better than a rooky Russell will be).
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Lakers depth chart
PG Johnson / Goodrich
SG Bryant / West / Scott
SF Baylor / Worthy / Cooper
PF Mikkelsen / Hairston / McAdoo / Gasol
C Chamberlain / Abdul-Jabbar / O'Neal / Mikan |
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laker4life
Star Player
Joined: 26 Nov 2001
Posts: 7317
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| Posted: Fri Jul 31, 2015 5:54 am Post subject: |
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| EmoDias wrote: | What people are doing is looking at the Lakers without looking at their counter-parts. Don't be so adamant about writing the Lakers off just yet. There is no argument that the first six playoff spots will be occupied but after that the last two remaining spots are wide open. This is also not taking into account for injuries that can happen to any team, which can open up an additional spot or two. As I see it, the other 8 teams remaining aren't that much better on paper than the Lakers. It will be up to a combination of chemistry, coaching, and determination of each team, barring talent alone, to determine who will make it into the postseason. If you look it this way, I like the Lakers' chances. I'm not saying they are guaranteed to make it, I'm just saying they have a definite chance.
1.Warriors
2.Spurs
3.Thunders
4.Clippers
5.Grizzlies
6.Rockets
7.
8.
Lakers, Pelicans, Suns, Mavs, Jazz, Kings, Nuggets, Wolves, Blazers |
The Pelicans are in.
The last spot should go to the Suns. The Kings and Jazzs are next in line. |
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AshesToAshes
Star Player
Joined: 20 Jun 2009
Posts: 4837
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| Posted: Fri Jul 31, 2015 6:13 am Post subject: |
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Next season will be "fun".
Mainly because outside of a franchise player 1 year from retirement, a hopeful comeback for a defensive big...
we're putting out a wanna-be 2nd all-ncaa team into an nba regular season.
what should happen is they get smoked.
anything outside of that will be awesome to watch. If we sniff the playoffs i will lmao.. half our team wouldn't have seen more than garbage minutes in the 80s / 90's.
league is a joke.. good luck to fake superstars and small ball.
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EmoDias
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Joined: 15 Aug 2010
Posts: 266
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| Posted: Fri Jul 31, 2015 6:30 am Post subject: |
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| laker4life wrote: | | EmoDias wrote: | What people are doing is looking at the Lakers without looking at their counter-parts. Don't be so adamant about writing the Lakers off just yet. There is no argument that the first six playoff spots will be occupied but after that the last two remaining spots are wide open. This is also not taking into account for injuries that can happen to any team, which can open up an additional spot or two. As I see it, the other 8 teams remaining aren't that much better on paper than the Lakers. It will be up to a combination of chemistry, coaching, and determination of each team, barring talent alone, to determine who will make it into the postseason. If you look it this way, I like the Lakers' chances. I'm not saying they are guaranteed to make it, I'm just saying they have a definite chance.
1.Warriors
2.Spurs
3.Thunders
4.Clippers
5.Grizzlies
6.Rockets
7.
8.
Lakers, Pelicans, Suns, Mavs, Jazz, Kings, Nuggets, Wolves, Blazers |
The Pelicans are in.
The last spot should go to the Suns. The Kings and Jazzs are next in line. |
The Pelicans are pretty good but any team that barely made it last year should not be penciled in this year. Only the first 6 teams should get a pass. The Suns couldn't get in with Dragic, Bledsoe, and Thomas playing small ball. I'm not so sure they got better. If they would have landed Aldridge then it would have been a given. |
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yinoma2001
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Joined: 19 Jun 2010
Posts: 119487
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| Posted: Fri Jul 31, 2015 6:35 am Post subject: |
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As for teams that I have better than the Lakers as of now:
7-9
Utah, Suns, Pelicans
Next tier: 10-13
Lakers, Mavs, Kings
Next tier:
Nuggs, Wolves, Blazers.
Anthony Davis is going to have an MVP level season, and Holiday should be back as well. Their new coach is going to do wonders for them. I have them in the playoffs.
Utah IIRC had the best record post all-star break. They will be a formidable group and have a young core. Lyles should help and Exum will be improved.
PHX is a bit of a wildcard, but Chandler will help them a lot. They may be hovering at the 8-9 range all season.
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lakerMark
Starting Rotation
Joined: 22 Sep 2005
Posts: 478
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| Posted: Fri Jul 31, 2015 6:41 am Post subject: |
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| s_habe wrote: | Lakers need a much better coach to have success.
And we improved significantly only at the C spot. While giving back at the PG (Lin was much better than a rooky Russell will be). |
Lin much better than Russell put down that pipe!!! Boozer is better than Randle too I guess. |
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EmoDias
Starting Rotation
Joined: 15 Aug 2010
Posts: 266
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| Posted: Fri Jul 31, 2015 6:48 am Post subject: |
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| pio2u wrote: | | EmoDias wrote: | What people are doing is looking at the Lakers without looking at their counter-parts. Don't be so adamant about writing the Lakers off just yet. There is no argument that the first six playoff spots will be occupied but after that the last two remaining spots are wide open. This is also not taking into account for injuries that can happen to any team, which can open up an additional spot or two. As I see it, the other 8 teams remaining aren't that much better on paper than the Lakers. It will be up to a combination of chemistry, coaching, and determination of each team, barring talent alone, to determine who will make it into the postseason. If you look it this way, I like the Lakers' chances. I'm not saying they are guaranteed to make it, I'm just saying they have a definite chance.
1.Warriors
2.Spurs
3.Thunders
4.Clippers
5.Grizzlies
6.Rockets
7.
8.
Lakers, Pelicans, Suns, Mavs, Jazz, Kings, Nuggets, Wolves, Blazers |
The West will, once again, be BRUTAL. |
Yes you're right the West is always brutal but the landscape of the west has changed dramatically this year. A lot of decent teams have altered their lineup dramatically and that can only bold well for the younger teams trying to break through.
Even though the Lakers were dead awful last year and it's almost unfathomable that can make a jump to the playoffs in just one year's time, they are one of those young teams that might have enough of a mixture of talent and veterans to make some noise. Remember that this team has way more talent than last year's and we were also tanking so that in itself makes this team a lot better.
The games against the other teams after the top 6 should be very competitive. A fun and hopeful season indeed! |
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yinoma2001
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Joined: 19 Jun 2010
Posts: 119487
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| Posted: Fri Jul 31, 2015 6:52 am Post subject: |
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I think 2017 is when we will make the quantum leap from that 7-9 pocket to the 3-5 pocket. Spurs will lose Duncan/Manu, have an aging TP (though they will have cap space to reload), OKC could implode if Durant leaves, Grizz will get older with Gasol/Randolph.
Then again other teams may also move ahead too but we will have a good chance to get back up there by 2017 IMO.
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EmoDias
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Joined: 15 Aug 2010
Posts: 266
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| Posted: Fri Jul 31, 2015 6:58 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | As for teams that I have better than the Lakers as of now:
7-9
Utah, Suns, Pelicans
Next tier: 10-13
Lakers, Mavs, Kings
Next tier:
Nuggs, Wolves, Blazers.
Anthony Davis is going to have an MVP level season, and Holiday should be back as well. Their new coach is going to do wonders for them. I have them in the playoffs.
Utah IIRC had the best record post all-star break. They will be a formidable group and have a young core. Lyles should help and Exum will be improved.
PHX is a bit of a wildcard, but Chandler will help them a lot. They may be hovering at the 8-9 range all season. |
There's always a fight for the last two spots. Davis is awesome but I think he still needs more help. Utah is a very young team just like us, anything could happen to them just like us. Phx is a wildcard, just like us. We were an injury riddled team last year, let's see what we could do this year with more talent and a healthy team. |
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yinoma2001
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Joined: 19 Jun 2010
Posts: 119487
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| Posted: Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:02 am Post subject: |
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| EmoDias wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | As for teams that I have better than the Lakers as of now:
7-9
Utah, Suns, Pelicans
Next tier: 10-13
Lakers, Mavs, Kings
Next tier:
Nuggs, Wolves, Blazers.
Anthony Davis is going to have an MVP level season, and Holiday should be back as well. Their new coach is going to do wonders for them. I have them in the playoffs.
Utah IIRC had the best record post all-star break. They will be a formidable group and have a young core. Lyles should help and Exum will be improved.
PHX is a bit of a wildcard, but Chandler will help them a lot. They may be hovering at the 8-9 range all season. |
There's always a fight for the last two spots. Davis is awesome but I think he still needs more help. Utah is a very young team just like us, anything could happen to them just like us. Phx is a wildcard, just like us. We were an injury riddled team last year, let's see what we could do this year with more talent and a healthy team. |
Davis does have help, most importantly, Alvin Gentry. Monty Williams was just killing that team. I'd be very surprised if they didn't make the playoffs.
Utah is rolling right now, best record after the all-star break. Great continuity going there with a good coach. Notice the emphasis on coach.
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