OFFICIAL 2016 FREE AGENCY (PINCUS states 2017-18 salary cap falling to $102m; Lakers get Calderon, pg.2432; sign Deng 4 yr/$72M; Mozgov 4 yr/$64M; Tarik Black 2 yr/$12.85M)
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Omar Little
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 31, 2015 12:32 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
24 wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
I think Hibbert would take a paycut to stay a Laker, that's just a hunch. I could see him taking less than 20m to stay (assuming he plays reasonably well).

That would give us some room to play around with.

Yeah, seems Livingston has a non-guaranteed slot, but they'll also have to pay Barnes and Ezili. Not sure they would want to pay nearly 6m for a backup PG.

But with 2 max slots, we can be opportunistic in 2016 free agency. Even use 20m slot to do another Hibbert sort of placeholder deal, and there may be some player or two who would be willing to get a large 1 year deal to hit another possible cap rise in 2017.


I've been trying to put a value to Hibbert, and I think in the current cap situation, he's overpaid a bit. I'm guessing that on the open market he would have been a 10-12 mil guy (reason he opted in), with the range based on risk of him staying regressed. If he puts it together this year, I put him around 13-14 million in current dollars, so in theory, he should be a 16-18 mil guy. That could go a bit either way depending upon demand.

I could see him with a deal starting pretty near where he is.


Agreed. Just based on some of his interviews (the most illuminating one was one he had on Doug Gottlieb's show), he sounds like he REALLY wants to stay as a Laker. For the first time in his career he planned to move his training to LA during the summer as opposed to Indy. I think he will find every way to stay in LA, even if it means taking a hometown discount to stay here.

At 16-18m, assuming he plays reasonably well, would be a good deal. Assuming Batum is in the 20m+ range, you still have a big range of money to either throw at a RFA, and/or give to multiple role players or in the form of a large one year expiring chunk so we can pursue better FAs in 2017.


Yup. Continue to add to the core while keeping cap available for star free agents. My gut tells me a likely scenario is re-signing Hibbert, adding a batum level player, and signing Clarkson (assuming Hibbert and Clarkson progress nicely).
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 31, 2015 12:41 pm    Post subject:

Pau could be a free agent in 2016 if he opts out. I'd love to see he and Kobe play one more season together and retire as Lakers.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 31, 2015 12:42 pm    Post subject:

Mini Mamba wrote:
Pau could be a free agent in 2016 if he opts out. I'd love to see he and Kobe play one more season together and retire as Lakers.


the train has left the platform....
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 31, 2015 12:43 pm    Post subject:

Mini Mamba wrote:
Pau could be a free agent in 2016 if he opts out. I'd love to see he and Kobe play one more season together and retire as Lakers.


Aren't we past the nostalgia stage yet? Let's trying winning.
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Jim99187
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 31, 2015 2:28 pm    Post subject:

24 wrote:


Yup. Continue to add to the core while keeping cap available for star free agents. My gut tells me a likely scenario is re-signing Hibbert, adding a batum level player, and signing Clarkson (assuming Hibbert and Clarkson progress nicely).


i am thinking is it possible to have hibbert, batum and clarkson signed and we still have 2 max slots for 2017 with cap going 108.
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Omar Little
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 31, 2015 2:56 pm    Post subject:

Jim99187 wrote:
24 wrote:


Yup. Continue to add to the core while keeping cap available for star free agents. My gut tells me a likely scenario is re-signing Hibbert, adding a batum level player, and signing Clarkson (assuming Hibbert and Clarkson progress nicely).


i am thinking is it possible to have hibbert, batum and clarkson signed and we still have 2 max slots for 2017 with cap going 108.


That would be a little tough. You're talking roughly 78 mil in combined cap space between 16 and 17. Two maxes, even rookie maxes, will eat about 45 mil of that in 2017, meaning you'd have to sign those three for a combined 33 million.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 31, 2015 4:08 pm    Post subject:

24 wrote:
Jim99187 wrote:
24 wrote:


Yup. Continue to add to the core while keeping cap available for star free agents. My gut tells me a likely scenario is re-signing Hibbert, adding a batum level player, and signing Clarkson (assuming Hibbert and Clarkson progress nicely).


i am thinking is it possible to have hibbert, batum and clarkson signed and we still have 2 max slots for 2017 with cap going 108.


That would be a little tough. You're talking roughly 78 mil in combined cap space between 16 and 17. Two maxes, even rookie maxes, will eat about 45 mil of that in 2017, meaning you'd have to sign those three for a combined 33 million.


So u think hibbert at 28 & declining is worth the 18-20mil he wants on long term contract? Or a guy like Festus at 15mil?
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 31, 2015 4:15 pm    Post subject:

Jim99187 wrote:
24 wrote:
Jim99187 wrote:
24 wrote:


Yup. Continue to add to the core while keeping cap available for star free agents. My gut tells me a likely scenario is re-signing Hibbert, adding a batum level player, and signing Clarkson (assuming Hibbert and Clarkson progress nicely).


i am thinking is it possible to have hibbert, batum and clarkson signed and we still have 2 max slots for 2017 with cap going 108.


That would be a little tough. You're talking roughly 78 mil in combined cap space between 16 and 17. Two maxes, even rookie maxes, will eat about 45 mil of that in 2017, meaning you'd have to sign those three for a combined 33 million.


So u think hibbert at 28 & declining is worth the 18-20mil he wants on long term contract? Or a guy like Festus at 15mil?


I want to see what Hibbert brings to the table this year.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2015 1:58 pm    Post subject:

I think if we miss out on the big names, we will certainly be players in the tier 2 and even 3 markets. Lots of names out there we can use 60m in cap space to fill out the rotation and leave another max in 2017 to chase Westbrook.

I'm very curious about RFAs such as Harrison Barnes, DMontajuneius in Houston, etc. Wish we could sabotage their pursuit of FAs but unfortunately the long moratorium allows them to conduct business while waiting a few days for RFA after the moratorium is lifted. Even so, I could see us pursuing a few lower tier RFAs too since we have so much cap space.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:26 pm    Post subject:

Mini Mamba wrote:
Pau could be a free agent in 2016 if he opts out. I'd love to see he and Kobe play one more season together and retire as Lakers.


I would rather look toward the future than the past.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:34 pm    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
Mini Mamba wrote:
Pau could be a free agent in 2016 if he opts out. I'd love to see he and Kobe play one more season together and retire as Lakers.


I would rather look toward the future than the past.


Yeah, time to let go of Pau.

The real question for me is that assuming Kobe plays 60-65 games reasonably healthy and at a good clip (say 19/5/5), and he wants to come back, how much will the Lakers be willing to pay him? It puts the rebuild on hold a bit. Could use him as an expiring placeholder for 2017, but not sure Kobe will want to hang around after the Lakers hit/miss on everyone first.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:57 pm    Post subject:

in 2016 offseason

max out
Plan A: Durant
Plan B: Harrison Barnes- young emerging SF

Fallback pay derozan.. isn't a franchise player but an all star and good quality option

then sign a defense big
Hibbert, Whiteside, Noah, Hortford, Mozgov, John Hensen

2017
Russell Westbrook comes home!
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2015 3:50 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
Mini Mamba wrote:
Pau could be a free agent in 2016 if he opts out. I'd love to see he and Kobe play one more season together and retire as Lakers.


I would rather look toward the future than the past.


Yeah, time to let go of Pau.

The real question for me is that assuming Kobe plays 60-65 games reasonably healthy and at a good clip (say 19/5/5), and he wants to come back, how much will the Lakers be willing to pay him? It puts the rebuild on hold a bit. Could use him as an expiring placeholder for 2017, but not sure Kobe will want to hang around after the Lakers hit/miss on everyone first.


I have wondered about that as well.

To get a fairly concrete idea of how much money can be offered to the Free Agents of other teams, getting a fairly good grasp of a salary number for Kobe and probably for Hibbert will be the initial steps in the process.

If Kobe + Hibbert = $30 million, then that leaves roughly $30 million to offer Free Agents without some moves to clear more Cap Space.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:35 pm    Post subject:

Although Jim Buss left the door open for Kobe to play beyond this season, he also appeared to make it clear that they will have a defined role for Kobe (considering his age and mileage) that he would have to accept. I imagine his salary would reflect a reduced role and I think Kobe accepting that salary would indicate a willingness to defer on the court as well. I'm not holding my breath but maybe the FO is counting on those two issues going hand-in-hand.

That being said, I don't offer Kobe more than 1-year at $10 million. That leaves the team with $50-55 million to juggle 2 major free agents (which may include Hibbert), a potential raise for Jordan, and another impact big (which may be Bass). By my calculations, that leaves open the possibility of a MAX slot for Westbrook in 2017.
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2015 2:43 pm    Post subject:

One consideration. If we miss out on the big names what about trading for Channing Frye with cap space. Iirc around 7m for 2 years. Could stretch the floor and be a decent backup center.
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2015 7:01 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
One consideration. If we miss out on the big names what about trading for Channing Frye with cap space. Iirc around 7m for 2 years. Could stretch the floor and be a decent backup center.


Not worth it unless a Swaggy for Frye swap. I know the Magic fans want him gone.
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2015 7:39 pm    Post subject:

If I had to choose between giving Batum the max and just leaving open cap space for the future, it would take me a long time to decide.
I don't think he's worth the max now, and chances are, he'll decline over a multi year contract.
Maybe give him a short deal for max money? Is that possible?
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2015 7:48 pm    Post subject:

Has a player outside the top 30 in PER for his position ever got max money before?
Batum doesn't even have the highest PER at his position for his team.
Dorrell Wright beat him out.
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2015 8:26 pm    Post subject:

kikanga wrote:
Has a player outside the top 30 in PER for his position ever got max money before?
Batum doesn't even have the highest PER at his position for his team.
Dorrell Wright beat him out.


Are you counting on Batum being injured again in 2016?
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2015 8:28 pm    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
kikanga wrote:
Has a player outside the top 30 in PER for his position ever got max money before?
Batum doesn't even have the highest PER at his position for his team.
Dorrell Wright beat him out.


Are you counting on Batum being injured again in 2016?


Dorrell Wright was injured as well.

I'm just not betting on him having a bounce back year.
But if he does, maybe he's worth the max?
The year before last he was 17th in PER for his position.
Thats slightly below league average among starting small forwards.
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Last edited by kikanga on Sun Sep 06, 2015 8:33 pm; edited 2 times in total
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2015 8:30 pm    Post subject:

With a healthy wrist I pretty much guarantee he will improve shooting the ball.
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2015 8:36 pm    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
With a healthy wrist I pretty much guarantee he will improve shooting the ball.


I'm sure. Even with his injured wrist last year his TS% wasn't bad.
It's not his efficiency that gives me reservations. It's his low usage.
I don't like the idea of paying a premium price for a role player. Even if they are a great shooter.
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 07, 2015 5:52 am    Post subject:

Well the 2016 cap rise will be A bit unprecedented. So many teams will have tons of cap space and not enough quality players available. People will get laid. I mean paid.
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 07, 2015 7:30 am    Post subject:

kikanga wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
With a healthy wrist I pretty much guarantee he will improve shooting the ball.


I'm sure. Even with his injured wrist last year his TS% wasn't bad.
It's not his efficiency that gives me reservations. It's his low usage.
I don't like the idea of paying a premium price for a role player. Even if they are a great shooter.


JMO but I think you are focusing too much on Batum as a scorer. His value on the court is as a complete player, not a scorer.

Plays xlnt defense, passes and rebounds well for his position. A consistent all-around play is more valuable then a scorer IMO. Lakers have some offensive players, now its time to think about improving the perimeter defense. Lakers will be lucky if they can get Batum for $20M a year.
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 07, 2015 8:32 am    Post subject:

12-13m in next year's market gets you a 31 y.o. deng. That's how inflated the prices will be come.
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