Lakers Rebuild: Case Study of OKC/Warriors Core and Why We Likely Won't Make Playoffs Until 2017 (Update, p.6, comparing Lakers's core stats and OKC/GSW)

yinoma2001 · Retired Number Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Posts: 119487

I thought it would be interesting to examine 2 other teams that went from broke to contenders/champs (Warriors/OKC). Warriors went from 26-56 in 2009-10 to NBA champs in 2014-15. It took them 6 years to get there. While they had some astute free agent signings (Iggy for example), the core of their success was great drafting. In that time period, they drafted 1 likely HOFer (Curry), all-NBA player (Klay), all-NBA defender (Green) and a solid starter (Barnes).

Looking at OKC, from 20-62 in 2007-08 (in Seattle), they reached the NBA Finals in 2011-12 and a peak record of 60-22 in 2012-13. Their team was built mostly via draft picks which includes 3 likely HOFers (Durant, Westbrook, Harden) and an all NBA defender (Ibaka).

Some observations:

1.I think DLO can mirror some of Westbrook’s 3 year stats (which are listed below). If I told you that Westbrook only averaged 15/5/5 his rookie year, folks may say that he was not a likely HOFer based on that trajectory. But look at him now.

2.I think Randle has a chance to be a great #3 guy akin to Ibaka/D.Green/H.Barnes. Of course he doesn’t play defense like them, but I see him being a very versatile player.

3.Clarkson is the wildcard. Can he continue his trajectory from his great rookie year, maybe matching Klay Thompson’s trajectory to be a solid #2 option?

4. What is glaringly missing IMO is the Kevin Durant/Steph Curry transcendent player. I’m high on DLO, and I think he may ultimately get to Curry’s level of impact. I don’t see a Kevin Durant level player in our core.

5. Due to Randle’s injury last season, I have a hard time paralleling the Lakers with the OKC/Warriors trajectory. Is it the 2008-09 OKC team we are currently seeing (23-59)? Or the 2010-11 Warriors (36-46)? This much is certain, I don’t think we are anywhere near the jumps that OKC (23 to 50 wins in 2009-10) and Warriors (from 28 wins (projected) to 47 in 2012-13) had to propel them from young cores to playoff regulars.

6. OKC took 3 seasons to become a playoff regular; Warriors took 4 seasons.

7. Conclusion:

a. Patience with young core: We have to patient with our young core. Looking at Durant/Westbrook/Harden/Ibaka, even these great players had modest beginnings (aside from Durant). Westbrook showed incremental gains and by his 3rd season was putting up 22/5/8. The Warriors young core put up less spectacular numbers, and I do remember echoes of people saying Curry was done due to ankle problems. Look at him now.

b. Coaching: Warriors needed multiple coaching changes to get them to the promised land. (Don Nelson, Keith Smart, Mark Jax, Steve Kerr). OKC has had relative stability going from PJ Carlesimo to Brooks, most recently Donovan. Lakers will likely have gone through Brown, D’Antoni, Scott, before we get “the Coach.”

c. Free agency: Unlike these OKC/GSW, we hopefully have the power of grabbing multiple top free agents in 2016-18. OKC has not been active in free agency and the Warriors have been resourceful in their pursuits.
These powerhouse programs weren’t built in 1 season. I think we are frankly in year 1 of a multi-year rebuild (b/c we now have Clarkson, DLo, Randle all playing together). Based on the OKC/Warriors model, and assuming we don’t get rich via free agency, it may take until 2017 before we are back as playoff regulars. The clock’s ticking as we do not have an unlimited time to take advantage of rookie contracts (we lost 1 year on Randle, Clarkson is up in 2016).

OKC
2007-08 (Seattle): 20-62
2008-09: 23-59
2009-10: 50-32
2010-11: 55-27
2011-12: 47-19 (Lockout, 56-26 projection)
2012-13: 60-22
2013-14: 59-23
2014-15: 45-37

Durant (First 3 seasons)
2007-08: 20/4/2 (ppg/rpg/apg)
2008-09: 25/7/3
2009-10: 30/8/3 (PLAYOFFS)

Westbrook
2008-09: 15/5/5
2009-10: 16/5/8
2010-11: 22/5/8

Harden
2009-10: 10/3/2
2010-11: 12/3/2
2011-12: 17/4/4

Ibaka
2009-10: 6/5
2010-11: 10/8
2011-12: 9/8

Warriors
2009-10: 26-56
2010-11: 36-46
2011-12: 23-43 (lockout, projected 28-54 team)
2012-13: 47-35
2013-14: 51-31
2014-15: 67-15 (CHAMPS)

Curry
2009-10: 18/5/6
2010-11: 19/4/6
2011-12: 15/3/5
2012-13: 23/4/7
2013-14: 24/4/9
2014-15: 24/4/8

Klay
2011-12: 13/2/2
2012-13: 17/4/2
2013-14: 18/3/2
2014-15: 22/3/3

Barnes
2012-13: 9/4/1
2013-14: 10/4/2
2014-15: 10/6/1

Green
2012-13: 3/3/1
2013-14: 6/5/2
2014-15: 12/8/4

Lakers
2013-14: 27-55
2014-15: 21-61

Randle
2014-15: INC

Clarkson:
2014-15: 12/3/4

Russell:
2015-16: INC
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yinoma2001 · Retired Number Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Posts: 119487

Wrapped up a hearing early ergo some time on my hand today. Enjoy.

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venturalakersfan · Posted: Tue Sep 22, 2015 11:07 am Post subject:

I think the Lakers next playoff appearance being in the 2017 playoffs is something I can agree with.
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ocho · Retired Number Joined: 24 May 2005 Posts: 53796

venturalakersfan · Posted: Tue Sep 22, 2015 11:12 am Post subject:

I am thinking 2016/2017
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yinoma2001 · Retired Number Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Posts: 119487

yinoma2001 · Retired Number Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Posts: 119487

kikanga · Posted: Tue Sep 22, 2015 11:29 am Post subject:

I'm surprised yinoma didn't bash Scott.

I haven't seen enough of Russell or Randle to know if they have curry, Westbrook, ibaka, or D. Green upside.
So it's tough to agree or disagree with Yinoma.

But I will say curry, Klay, Westbrook, and Durant are the exception to the rule and not the standard.
Drafting future all-NBA first and second team players is far from a given.
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yinoma2001 · Retired Number Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Posts: 119487

kikanga · Posted: Tue Sep 22, 2015 11:42 am Post subject:

yinoma2001 · Retired Number Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Posts: 119487

But the surprising info was just how humble Westbrook/Harden/Ibaka/Klay/Barnes/Green's beginnings were. Pretty eye opening. This tells me that we need to have patience with someone like Randle, even DLO.
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wolfpaclaker · Retired Number Joined: 29 May 2002 Posts: 58336

Nice writeup, Yin.

My only concern and I've said this elsewhere when the comparison is made. The draftees from OKC/GST showed within 2 years they were going to be all-stars. Lakers have yet to show a single draftee that has shown he will make an all-star team anytime soon. Now I'm judging based on Randle's little PT in SPL and preseason last year, and Russ this SPL. They could be closer than I think, but IMO it's a long shot that we have 2 all-stars drafted. Maybe 1. I hope I'm wrong.

In which case, in case I'm right, Lakers will need to rely heavily on other avenues to get better, such as FA and trades, something GST/OKC didn't have to rely on as much to get into the playoffs.

yinoma2001 · Retired Number Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Posts: 119487

wolfpaclaker · Retired Number Joined: 29 May 2002 Posts: 58336

Perhaps this will come across as being dishonest, but when I saw rookie/sophmore versions of their top 2 drafted guys, I immediately sensed an all-star in all of them, minus Klay. Klay is the one that really surprised me. Curry I didn't expect to be a MVP, but it was clear the ankle injuries were the only thing holding him back from being a franchise point guard/consistent all-star.

Now Randle, Russ and Clarkson have promise as well, but I think they are further away from being there vs rookie/sophmore Durant/Westbrook. IMO, of course.

yinoma2001 · Retired Number Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Posts: 119487

kikanga · Posted: Tue Sep 22, 2015 11:58 am Post subject:

yinoma2001 · Retired Number Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Posts: 119487

Since it doesn't look like we will have a top 3 draft pick next year, and I'm projecting that we will be at worst a borderline playoff team in 2016-17, the "Durant" slot will be via free agency, aka Durant in 2016, Westbrook in 2017, or Paul George/Cousins in 2018. OKC/Warriors never lured a max level star so in a sense we still have that theoretical advantage.
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Voices · Posted: Tue Sep 22, 2015 12:10 pm Post subject:

oldschool32 · Franchise Player Joined: 24 Jun 2005 Posts: 20032

Thanks for posting this!

Biggest problem we're facing right now is finding a Durant/Curry/Westbrook. All 3 our elite go to guys who can give you 24+ppg on any given night. Finding the Thompson's and Ibaka's is slightly easier. I don't see a big turn around for another 2 seasons. Getting anywhere near .500 this year would be huge. The Lakers need Russell to look like a future star player, Clarkson to continue on his curve, and Randle to look like a legit big man(double double machine), and develop a consistent jump shot. I'm hoping that Russell or Clarkson look like a closer. They need a player that can finish games with the ball in his hands, as I don't know if they are going to be able to get that player through free agency (KD/Russ).
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yinoma2001 · Retired Number Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Posts: 119487

What's imperative is the ticking rookie contract time clock. Clarkson is up for an extension in 2016, and then Randle/DLO will come sooner than later. When these guys are getting relative FMV contracts, then the means to get a superstar (assuming they don't turn out to be ones themselves) get tougher and tougher.
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Rivershow · Star Player Joined: 09 Dec 2011 Posts: 6731

I will just say I disagree. As I said, I don't think making the playoffs is impossible this year. Now actually competing for a championship realistically, is where I can agree with your title.

Jim99187 · Franchise Player Joined: 03 Jan 2014 Posts: 22138

1 thing i would say is neither OKC nor GSW had any vet presence like us next yr nor did they had any burning desire to go get FA's with max

if not this yr then i can see them making playoffs next yr with all the vet additions

Rivershow · Star Player Joined: 09 Dec 2011 Posts: 6731

Omar Little · Posted: Tue Sep 22, 2015 1:06 pm Post subject:

It is worth noting that OKC had to go through 4 miserable seasons to put their core together, missing the playoffs 4 straight years, and bottoming out in years 3 and 4 with 20 and 23 wins (and the latter year was WITH Durant AND Westbrook).

Jim99187 · Franchise Player Joined: 03 Jan 2014 Posts: 22138