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Vancouver Fan
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 Posted: Wed Jan 27, 2016 6:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | USCandLakers wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: | I don't disagree that Okafor has an elite post and isolation game. My point is that it doesn't matter very much. If you strip away his issues with rebounding, rim protection, hustle, turnovers, etc, and JUST focus on his scoring, which is the thing that he's supposed to be elite at.
Jahlil Okafor's TS% (51.8%) Rankings (min. 20 games played, 10mpg)
228th out of 336 NBA players
121st out of 162 Front Court Players
37th out of 41 Centers
Okafor's game is aesthetically elite. We're not talking about a guy with talent in the post/iso situations that isn't realized yet. He's got the moves right now. It just doesn't actually turn into points for himself or for the other team. Sure, he will improve with experience, but it's not like he's in the middle of the pack on these numbers. He's near the bottom, relative to his position.
I feel like we have this same debate every year, and there's always some reason why bigs of his ilk can't score efficiently, and their teams can't win. There's always some hypothetical scenario, where if only they were used in exactly the right way that no NBA coach has been able to figure out, they would become great weapons. Okafor would not be a great fit in New York. They'd be facing the same problems that Philly does with playing him. It's a fundamental difficulty with a guy like him. There's a reason there are no examples of guys like him on good offensive teams in the NBA. |
Coaches have figured it out, just not the coaches in Philly. You obviously know it takes a certain type of team to take advantage of a post dominant player, can we stop pretending like Philly has that team and Okafor is simply not taking advantage of it? They don't have the shooters, they don't have the system and they don't have the coach. And he's a rookie. Far from a finished product. Just because he has moves right now doesn't mean he wont get significantly better. He'd get better just by having the right team, but he'd also get better with extended range, a better body and more NBA experience.
He wouldn't be better fit in NY? I beg to differ. Perfect system, shooters and playing next to a star.
What problems would NY be facing with Okafor that Philly is facing now?
Imagine for a second that Pop got a hold of Jahlil. What do you think would happen? That system, that coach, that franchise... |
After you visit the alternate reality where Okafor is a Knick, please bring back bball-ref stats and inter-dimensional duty free Crown Royal. I can hypothesize that KP in a frontcourt with Noel and Covington would give the Sixers one of the top defenses in the NBA while the Knicks would be challenging the Lakers for worst defense in the league with Okafor instead of Lopez and Porzingis. But that's counterfactual speculation with no way to win just like your argument to the converse.
How about this: What would Golden State look like with Okafor? What would Golden State look like with Porzingis? |
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USCandLakers
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| Posted: Wed Jan 27, 2016 7:26 pm Post subject: |
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| Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | USCandLakers wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: | I don't disagree that Okafor has an elite post and isolation game. My point is that it doesn't matter very much. If you strip away his issues with rebounding, rim protection, hustle, turnovers, etc, and JUST focus on his scoring, which is the thing that he's supposed to be elite at.
Jahlil Okafor's TS% (51.8%) Rankings (min. 20 games played, 10mpg)
228th out of 336 NBA players
121st out of 162 Front Court Players
37th out of 41 Centers
Okafor's game is aesthetically elite. We're not talking about a guy with talent in the post/iso situations that isn't realized yet. He's got the moves right now. It just doesn't actually turn into points for himself or for the other team. Sure, he will improve with experience, but it's not like he's in the middle of the pack on these numbers. He's near the bottom, relative to his position.
I feel like we have this same debate every year, and there's always some reason why bigs of his ilk can't score efficiently, and their teams can't win. There's always some hypothetical scenario, where if only they were used in exactly the right way that no NBA coach has been able to figure out, they would become great weapons. Okafor would not be a great fit in New York. They'd be facing the same problems that Philly does with playing him. It's a fundamental difficulty with a guy like him. There's a reason there are no examples of guys like him on good offensive teams in the NBA. |
Coaches have figured it out, just not the coaches in Philly. You obviously know it takes a certain type of team to take advantage of a post dominant player, can we stop pretending like Philly has that team and Okafor is simply not taking advantage of it? They don't have the shooters, they don't have the system and they don't have the coach. And he's a rookie. Far from a finished product. Just because he has moves right now doesn't mean he wont get significantly better. He'd get better just by having the right team, but he'd also get better with extended range, a better body and more NBA experience.
He wouldn't be better fit in NY? I beg to differ. Perfect system, shooters and playing next to a star.
What problems would NY be facing with Okafor that Philly is facing now?
Imagine for a second that Pop got a hold of Jahlil. What do you think would happen? That system, that coach, that franchise... |
After you visit the alternate reality where Okafor is a Knick, please bring back bball-ref stats and inter-dimensional duty free Crown Royal. I can hypothesize that KP in a frontcourt with Noel and Covington would give the Sixers one of the top defenses in the NBA while the Knicks would be challenging the Lakers for worst defense in the league with Okafor instead of Lopez and Porzingis. But that's counterfactual speculation with no way to win just like your argument to the converse.
How about this: What would Golden State look like with Okafor? What would Golden State look like with Porzingis? |
But how would LeBron fare on the 76ers?
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Wed Jan 27, 2016 8:47 pm Post subject: |
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The 76ers wouldn't be smelling the lottery with Lebron.
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Wed Jan 27, 2016 8:57 pm Post subject: |
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| USCandLakers wrote: | | Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | USCandLakers wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: | I don't disagree that Okafor has an elite post and isolation game. My point is that it doesn't matter very much. If you strip away his issues with rebounding, rim protection, hustle, turnovers, etc, and JUST focus on his scoring, which is the thing that he's supposed to be elite at.
Jahlil Okafor's TS% (51.8%) Rankings (min. 20 games played, 10mpg)
228th out of 336 NBA players
121st out of 162 Front Court Players
37th out of 41 Centers
Okafor's game is aesthetically elite. We're not talking about a guy with talent in the post/iso situations that isn't realized yet. He's got the moves right now. It just doesn't actually turn into points for himself or for the other team. Sure, he will improve with experience, but it's not like he's in the middle of the pack on these numbers. He's near the bottom, relative to his position.
I feel like we have this same debate every year, and there's always some reason why bigs of his ilk can't score efficiently, and their teams can't win. There's always some hypothetical scenario, where if only they were used in exactly the right way that no NBA coach has been able to figure out, they would become great weapons. Okafor would not be a great fit in New York. They'd be facing the same problems that Philly does with playing him. It's a fundamental difficulty with a guy like him. There's a reason there are no examples of guys like him on good offensive teams in the NBA. |
Coaches have figured it out, just not the coaches in Philly. You obviously know it takes a certain type of team to take advantage of a post dominant player, can we stop pretending like Philly has that team and Okafor is simply not taking advantage of it? They don't have the shooters, they don't have the system and they don't have the coach. And he's a rookie. Far from a finished product. Just because he has moves right now doesn't mean he wont get significantly better. He'd get better just by having the right team, but he'd also get better with extended range, a better body and more NBA experience.
He wouldn't be better fit in NY? I beg to differ. Perfect system, shooters and playing next to a star.
What problems would NY be facing with Okafor that Philly is facing now?
Imagine for a second that Pop got a hold of Jahlil. What do you think would happen? That system, that coach, that franchise... |
After you visit the alternate reality where Okafor is a Knick, please bring back bball-ref stats and inter-dimensional duty free Crown Royal. I can hypothesize that KP in a frontcourt with Noel and Covington would give the Sixers one of the top defenses in the NBA while the Knicks would be challenging the Lakers for worst defense in the league with Okafor instead of Lopez and Porzingis. But that's counterfactual speculation with no way to win just like your argument to the converse.
How about this: What would Golden State look like with Okafor? What would Golden State look like with Porzingis? |
But how would LeBron fare on the 76ers? |
In all honesty pretty well. With Noel and a bunch of young guys who would do whatever he told them they'd be in the playoffs.
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BigGameHames
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Joined: 24 May 2015
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| Posted: Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:08 pm Post subject: |
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| venturalakersfan wrote: | | USCandLakers wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: | I don't disagree that Okafor has an elite post and isolation game. My point is that it doesn't matter very much. If you strip away his issues with rebounding, rim protection, hustle, turnovers, etc, and JUST focus on his scoring, which is the thing that he's supposed to be elite at.
Jahlil Okafor's TS% (51.8%) Rankings (min. 20 games played, 10mpg)
228th out of 336 NBA players
121st out of 162 Front Court Players
37th out of 41 Centers
Okafor's game is aesthetically elite. We're not talking about a guy with talent in the post/iso situations that isn't realized yet. He's got the moves right now. It just doesn't actually turn into points for himself or for the other team. Sure, he will improve with experience, but it's not like he's in the middle of the pack on these numbers. He's near the bottom, relative to his position.
I feel like we have this same debate every year, and there's always some reason why bigs of his ilk can't score efficiently, and their teams can't win. There's always some hypothetical scenario, where if only they were used in exactly the right way that no NBA coach has been able to figure out, they would become great weapons. Okafor would not be a great fit in New York. They'd be facing the same problems that Philly does with playing him. It's a fundamental difficulty with a guy like him. There's a reason there are no examples of guys like him on good offensive teams in the NBA. |
Coaches have figured it out, just not the coaches in Philly. You obviously know it takes a certain type of team to take advantage of a post dominant player, can we stop pretending like Philly has that team and Okafor is simply not taking advantage of it? They don't have the shooters, they don't have the system and they don't have the coach. And he's a rookie. Far from a finished product. Just because he has moves right now doesn't mean he wont get significantly better. He'd get better just by having the right team, but he'd also get better with extended range, a better body and more NBA experience.
He wouldn't be better fit in NY? I beg to differ. Perfect system, shooters and playing next to a star.
What problems would NY be facing with Okafor that Philly is facing now?
Imagine for a second that Pop got a hold of Jahlil. What do you think would happen? That system, that coach, that franchise... |
What those coaches have figured out is that you don't build your offense around a post player. Phil doesn't, Pop doesn't. |
When they had elite post players that's exactly what they did. Phil had shaq and did it. Pop ran his offense through Duncan for his entire prime. Phil used pau and Bynum in the post at the same time when they were great post players. It's about if your big guy has the talent and oak does. He has a lot of improving to do but with the right coach and system, a team will eventually be able to run an offense through him. |
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fiendishoc
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| Posted: Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:25 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Imagine for a second that Pop got a hold of Jahlil. What do you think would happen? That system, that coach, that franchise...
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You do realize that Brett Brown learned to coach in the NBA under Pop and brought over his system right? |
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USCandLakers
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| Posted: Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:35 pm Post subject: |
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| fiendishoc wrote: | | Quote: | Imagine for a second that Pop got a hold of Jahlil. What do you think would happen? That system, that coach, that franchise...
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You do realize that Brett Brown learned to coach in the NBA under Pop and brought over his system right? |
Too bad he didn't bring Pop, Kwi, Duncan and the entire Spurs organization with him.
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fiendishoc
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| Posted: Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:41 pm Post subject: |
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| USCandLakers wrote: | | fiendishoc wrote: | | Quote: | Imagine for a second that Pop got a hold of Jahlil. What do you think would happen? That system, that coach, that franchise...
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You do realize that Brett Brown learned to coach in the NBA under Pop and brought over his system right? |
Too bad he didn't bring Pop, Kwi, Duncan and the entire Spurs organization with him. |
If that's what it takes... |
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indy_dave000
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| Posted: Wed Jan 27, 2016 10:58 pm Post subject: |
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The Rookie who is starting to rise quickly after missing 6 weeks of the season with a fractured thumb and then brought along slowly is Myles Turner. Off his play in the last 7 games now that he is healthy; 22 minutes per game, 16.7 ppg, 5 rpg, 2 blocks and shooting 63% from the field (49/78) mostly on mid-range jumpers.
Frank Vogel is doing much like Byron Scott and limiting his minutes, example Tues. vs the Clippers he played only 18 minutes but produced 16 points (7/11 fga's) 6 boards and a block. He had 31 vs the Warriors a week ago when the Warriors did not remove their starters till the last 2 minutes in a 12 point win.
Turner picked 11th in the draft last June in time will be considered the steal of the draft as he develops in the NBA. |
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jonnybravo
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| Posted: Wed Jan 27, 2016 11:15 pm Post subject: |
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| indy_dave000 wrote: | The Rookie who is starting to rise quickly after missing 6 weeks of the season with a fractured thumb and then brought along slowly is Myles Turner. Off his play in the last 7 games now that he is healthy; 22 minutes per game, 16.7 ppg, 5 rpg, 2 blocks and shooting 63% from the field (49/78) mostly on mid-range jumpers.
Frank Vogel is doing much like Byron Scott and limiting his minutes, example Tues. vs the Clippers he played only 18 minutes but produced 16 points (7/11 fga's) 6 boards and a block. He had 31 vs the Warriors a week ago when the Warriors did not remove their starters till the last 2 minutes in a 12 point win.
Turner picked 11th in the draft last June in time will be considered the steal of the draft as he develops in the NBA. |
We've seen plenty of Jordan Hill here. EVery minute he gets should be going to Myles Turner. |
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indy_dave000
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| Posted: Wed Jan 27, 2016 11:50 pm Post subject: |
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I have no problem with Jordan Hill , he's played well here 21minutes a night 9.2ppg and 7 boards.
The big who is taking Myles Turner's minutes is Lavoy Allen. Tuesday vs the Clippers, Turner had 16 points 6 boards in 18 minutes. LaVoy Allen played 28 minutes and had 2 points 5 boards, Jordan Hill only played 14 minutes and Ian Mahinmi played 29.
Vogel is trying to play 4 bigs Mahinmi 24 minutes a night, Allen 22, J Hill 21 and Turner17. When all are healthy. |
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fiendishoc
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| Posted: Thu Jan 28, 2016 1:12 am Post subject: |
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| Under Vogel, Jordan Hill has become a plus player. I guess that's what happens when you have an actual NBA coach. |
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jonnybravo
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| Posted: Thu Jan 28, 2016 2:07 am Post subject: |
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| fiendishoc wrote: | | Under Vogel, Jordan Hill has become a plus player. I guess that's what happens when you have an actual NBA coach. |
Good point. Look what happened to Hibbert/Lou under BS. |
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fiendishoc
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| Posted: Thu Jan 28, 2016 5:48 am Post subject: |
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| indy_dave000 wrote: | I have no problem with Jordan Hill , he's played well here 21minutes a night 9.2ppg and 7 boards.
The big who is taking Myles Turner's minutes is Lavoy Allen. Tuesday vs the Clippers, Turner had 16 points 6 boards in 18 minutes. LaVoy Allen played 28 minutes and had 2 points 5 boards, Jordan Hill only played 14 minutes and Ian Mahinmi played 29.
Vogel is trying to play 4 bigs Mahinmi 24 minutes a night, Allen 22, J Hill 21 and Turner17. When all are healthy. |
I haven't watched the Pacers much at all this year, but going by RPM and RAPM, the unit with Lavoy Allen (Lavoy Allen- Monta Ellis- Paul George- George Hill- Ian Mahinmi) is statistically the best 5 man unit on the Pacers and the best defensive unit in the league. Lavoy is also in the Pacer's second and third best lineups. Turner hasn't played enough minutes for any units though. |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Thu Jan 28, 2016 7:32 am Post subject: |
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Pacers draft very well. With no top 5 picks, they drafted Granger, George, Hibbert, (what could have been Kahwai  ), Turner, etc. Very talented scouting department.
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indy_dave000
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| Posted: Thu Jan 28, 2016 8:23 pm Post subject: |
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Tonight's 1st career start vs the Hawks can be considered a success. After the Hawks grabbed a 90-88 lead with the 5:48 to go with Turner in the game playing well they outscored the Hawks 23-2 to win 111-92.
Turner for his part played 26 minutes at power forward ending up with 20 points, 6 boards and a block. |
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Snipes
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| Posted: Thu Jan 28, 2016 10:23 pm Post subject: |
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| indy_dave000 wrote: | Tonight's 1st career start vs the Hawks can be considered a success. After the Hawks grabbed a 90-88 lead with the 5:48 to go with Turner in the game playing well they outscored the Hawks 23-2 to win 111-92.
Turner for his part played 26 minutes at power forward ending up with 20 points, 6 boards and a block. |
He's a beast. Congrats Dave. |
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Snipes
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| Posted: Thu Jan 28, 2016 10:24 pm Post subject: |
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| I am the unicorn 4 that Jah seeks. Come find me Jah. |
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Baron Von Humongous
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| Posted: Fri Jan 29, 2016 8:42 am Post subject: |
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For those who understand BPM better than I do (probably most posters here), what do you make of Okafor, who has improved, having a BPM of -4.1?
It's only oe data point, but looking at 1st and 2nd year players over the past 25 years with more than 500 minutes and usage rate greater than 23% (which is DLo's USG%), Okafor's BPM places him in company with guys like Harold Minor, Tyler Hansborough, and Michael Beasley when they first entered the league. Some guys in his current BPM ranking cohort were serviceable NBA players like Lamond Murray, and Ced Ceballos - who was terri-bad his first two seasons in the league - made one All-Star team. But the only really good player in the group was Rip Hamilton, who looked like he really struggled during his first two seasons in DC.
Again, it's just one data point, but I'm trying to reconcile a 20 year old putting up 17/7 with such a mediocre BPM (and RPM for that matter). Because if Okafor continues his current pace and finishes with more than 1800 minutes and a 27 USG%, he and Michael Beasley would be the two lowest ranked young players by BPM in the past 25 years. But he does have 35 games left to improve. |
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fiendishoc
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| Posted: Fri Jan 29, 2016 9:15 am Post subject: |
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| Baron Von Humongous wrote: | For those who understand BPM better than I do (probably most posters here), what do you make of Okafor, who has improved, having a BPM of -4.1?
It's only oe data point, but looking at 1st and 2nd year players over the past 25 years with more than 500 minutes and usage rate greater than 23% (which is DLo's USG%), Okafor's BPM places him in company with guys like Harold Minor, Tyler Hansborough, and Michael Beasley when they first entered the league. Some guys in his current BPM ranking cohort were serviceable NBA players like Lamond Murray, and Ced Ceballos - who was terri-bad his first two seasons in the league - made one All-Star team. But the only really good player in the group was Rip Hamilton, who looked like he really struggled during his first two seasons in DC.
Again, it's just one data point, but I'm trying to reconcile a 20 year old putting up 17/7 with such a mediocre BPM (and RPM for that matter). Because if Okafor continues his current pace and finishes with more than 1800 minutes and a 27 USG%, he and Michael Beasley would be the two lowest ranked young players by BPM in the past 25 years. But he does have 35 games left to improve. |
I'm not a big fan of BPM, primarily because of the team adjustment that goes into it. The team performance moves the BPM number of everyone on the team equally, so it's kind of a blunt instrument. That said, that's just one part of why Oak and Beasley's ratings are so low. I think the overall number tends to reward efficiency and versatility (stuffing the box score in multiple categories) rather than usage. So if you're not putting up a lot of assists, steals, blocks, etc while turning it over and shooting a low TS%, you're not going to look great even if your point average is pretty good. The worry is that for front court players, its not that easy to improve these categories dramatically.
As for RPM, for most of the season, Oak made almost every unit he was a part of worse. That's partially because of fit, especially with Noel, but also because of his defensive issues and the ball stickiness and space hogging nature of his offensive tendencies. These have improved recently, as the team as a whole has improved. Maybe they're starting to figure out the best way to use him or have him adapt to a more effective style. It's still so early that I would hesitate to make projections based heavily on the numbers. |
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PROPHET
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| Posted: Fri Jan 29, 2016 9:58 am Post subject: |
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| jonnybravo wrote: | | fiendishoc wrote: | | Under Vogel, Jordan Hill has become a plus player. I guess that's what happens when you have an actual NBA coach. |
Good point. Look what happened to Hibbert/Lou under BS. |
You're not lying, we can hire a brick and it would coach this team better. |
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GoldenThroat
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| Posted: Fri Jan 29, 2016 10:03 am Post subject: |
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| fiendishoc wrote: | | Baron Von Humongous wrote: | For those who understand BPM better than I do (probably most posters here), what do you make of Okafor, who has improved, having a BPM of -4.1?
It's only oe data point, but looking at 1st and 2nd year players over the past 25 years with more than 500 minutes and usage rate greater than 23% (which is DLo's USG%), Okafor's BPM places him in company with guys like Harold Minor, Tyler Hansborough, and Michael Beasley when they first entered the league. Some guys in his current BPM ranking cohort were serviceable NBA players like Lamond Murray, and Ced Ceballos - who was terri-bad his first two seasons in the league - made one All-Star team. But the only really good player in the group was Rip Hamilton, who looked like he really struggled during his first two seasons in DC.
Again, it's just one data point, but I'm trying to reconcile a 20 year old putting up 17/7 with such a mediocre BPM (and RPM for that matter). Because if Okafor continues his current pace and finishes with more than 1800 minutes and a 27 USG%, he and Michael Beasley would be the two lowest ranked young players by BPM in the past 25 years. But he does have 35 games left to improve. |
I'm not a big fan of BPM, primarily because of the team adjustment that goes into it. The team performance moves the BPM number of everyone on the team equally, so it's kind of a blunt instrument. That said, that's just one part of why Oak and Beasley's ratings are so low. I think the overall number tends to reward efficiency and versatility (stuffing the box score in multiple categories) rather than usage. So if you're not putting up a lot of assists, steals, blocks, etc while turning it over and shooting a low TS%, you're not going to look great even if your point average is pretty good. The worry is that for front court players, its not that easy to improve these categories dramatically.
As for RPM, for most of the season, Oak made almost every unit he was a part of worse. That's partially because of fit, especially with Noel, but also because of his defensive issues and the ball stickiness and space hogging nature of his offensive tendencies. These have improved recently, as the team as a whole has improved. Maybe they're starting to figure out the best way to use him or have him adapt to a more effective style. It's still so early that I would hesitate to make projections based heavily on the numbers. |
I disagree. The Team Adjustment is normalized by a 120% multiplier for the purpose of translating them to a league average team.
| Quote: | The team's efficiency differential, adjusted for strength of schedule, is known. It is, by definition, the true sum of all players' contributions. BPM is adjusted such that the minute-weighted sum of individual players' BPM ratings on a team equals the team's rating times 120%. The team adjustment is simply a constant added to each player's raw BPM and is the same for every player on the team. The constant does 3 things: it adds the intercept to the BPM equation, it adjusts roughly at the team level for things that cannot be captured by the box score (primarily defense), and it also adjusts for strength of schedule. The formula for this adjustment looks like this:
BPM_Team_Adjustment = [Team_Rating*120% - S(Player_%Min*Player_RawBPM)]/5
So if a team has a rating of +8, and the player BPM terms sum to +7, the team adjustment, applied equally to all players on the team, would bump their rating by [(8)*120%-7]/5=+0.52.
Where did the 120% come from? Jeremias Engelmann has done extensive work on how lineups behave, and he discovered that lineups that are ahead in a game play worse, while lineups are behind play better – even if the exact same players are playing. Perhaps it's an effort thing? While the source is unclear, the effect is both significant and linear. He incorporates that effect into his RPM model, adjusting to a neutral environment, and BPM does the same. At the team level, a team that is always ahead is actually better than its final results indicate by about 20%, and a team that is usually behind is worse by 20%. Therefore, the team adjustment accounts for this effect.
What the 120% does, effectively, is to translate players from the team they are on onto a league average team, a team that is ahead and behind equal amounts during the season. Because of this adjustment, though, team-level analysis will need to divide that 120% back out – if a particular team would sum to +15 via adding up the BPM values, we would expect that team to actually perform at a +12.5 level – since they would usually be ahead in games. At the lineup level things are more tricky, since it is hard to predict how far ahead or behind a lineup typically is in normal game situations.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html |
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GoldenThroat
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Joined: 25 Jul 2005
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| Posted: Fri Jan 29, 2016 10:04 am Post subject: |
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| ^This is why Nerlens Noel can be a +0.1 BPM guy, while Jahlil Okafor can be a -4.1 BPM guy and be on the same team. |
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22
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Joined: 05 Apr 2013
Posts: 17063
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| Posted: Fri Jan 29, 2016 10:39 am Post subject: |
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GT imma need your opinion on one Myles Turner sir.
And additionally if you'd be willing to trade a top 3 pick for him in Indy was interested. |
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GoldenThroat
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Joined: 25 Jul 2005
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| Posted: Fri Jan 29, 2016 10:43 am Post subject: |
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| Baron Von Humongous wrote: | For those who understand BPM better than I do (probably most posters here), what do you make of Okafor, who has improved, having a BPM of -4.1?
It's only oe data point, but looking at 1st and 2nd year players over the past 25 years with more than 500 minutes and usage rate greater than 23% (which is DLo's USG%), Okafor's BPM places him in company with guys like Harold Minor, Tyler Hansborough, and Michael Beasley when they first entered the league. Some guys in his current BPM ranking cohort were serviceable NBA players like Lamond Murray, and Ced Ceballos - who was terri-bad his first two seasons in the league - made one All-Star team. But the only really good player in the group was Rip Hamilton, who looked like he really struggled during his first two seasons in DC.
Again, it's just one data point, but I'm trying to reconcile a 20 year old putting up 17/7 with such a mediocre BPM (and RPM for that matter). Because if Okafor continues his current pace and finishes with more than 1800 minutes and a 27 USG%, he and Michael Beasley would be the two lowest ranked young players by BPM in the past 25 years. But he does have 35 games left to improve. |
Here is the formula for raw BPM, for the purposes of the rest of my post. Raw BPM is a player's BPM before the Team Adjustment:
Raw BPM = *ReMPG + *ORB% + *DRB% + *STL% + *BLK% + *AST% - *USG%*TO% +
*USG%*(1-TO%)*[2*(TS% - TmTS%) + *AST% + *(3PAr - Lg3PAr) - k] + *sqrt(AST%*TRB%)
Okafor doesn't do well in BPM because he doesn't score efficiently (51.8%, when the league average is 53.7%), that scoring inefficiency is exacerbated by high usage, he doesn't get assists or steals at a high rate (few bigs do), and that isn't compensated for by high rebound or block rates, which most bigs have. Okafor is just a bit over the league average in categories where bigs usually have a significant advantage over wings and guards.
When people say he's going to 17/7 on the year as a way of advocating for him, my first thought is that the "7" is a mark against him.
Okafor's rankings amongst the 41 qualifying centers (20 games played, 10mpg) in the NBA:
True Shooting Percentage........37th
Rebound Rate........................37th
Assist Rate............................23rd
Steal Rate.............................35th
Block Rate.............................31st
Turnover Rate..........................9th
Aside from Turnover Rate (I didn't realize he had improved this much in this area), what does he do better than other bigs? Not in an aesthetic, "look at those post moves" sort of way, but in a tangible one. This is why his VORP (-0.7) is so low.
Last edited by GoldenThroat on Fri Jan 29, 2016 10:45 am; edited 1 time in total |
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