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70sdude
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Joined: 05 Feb 2009
Posts: 4567
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 Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 6:01 am Post subject: New record at LG |
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Well, I guess we were all wrong. Pre-season, there were no LGers predicting a worse record in 15/16 then the one experienced in the previous season. Talent seemed improved. Health seemed likely to improve. Carlos Boozer had been essentially swapped out for someone who would occasionally defend, Roy Hibbert. Things just had to get better.
Nope.
I'm gonna bet that there's never been any topic at LG that produced a higher percentage of LG Users to be proven wrong. |
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999
Franchise Player
Joined: 19 Oct 2006
Posts: 20267
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 8:34 am Post subject: |
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| Tell you the truth. I didn't think Byron Scott could be this bad!!! |
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KindCrippler2000
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Joined: 02 May 2003
Posts: 15821
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 8:36 am Post subject: |
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| 999 wrote: | | Tell you the truth. I didn't think Byron Scott could be this bad!!! |
Lakers FO missed all the warning signs. There were plenty of accurate scouting reports on his coaching in Cleveland and New Orleans.
It's hard to blame Byron more than the FO. They unleashed this monster on us. |
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jumpinmp
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Joined: 16 Mar 2004
Posts: 641
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 8:38 am Post subject: |
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| 999 wrote: | | Tell you the truth. I didn't think Byron Scott could be this bad!!! |
Same. Scott got a semi-pass last year. This year the obvious is glaring all us fans in the face. Dude's the worst coach in possibly the history of the NBA, and he hasn't shown any possibility for improvement all year. In fact, he might be worse now than he was 2 months ago as a coach.
I also thought we would have 5-6 more wins than last year, which didn't seem like it was asking THAT much.
I even preached patience to those who wanted Luke before the season started and argued Scott should get to play it out this year  |
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Dr. Funkbot
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Joined: 24 Sep 2001
Posts: 8188
Location: Eagle Rock
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 8:41 am Post subject: |
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FO needs to man up and fire Byron. He is ruining our young players.
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kikanga
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Joined: 15 Sep 2012
Posts: 29337
Location: La La Land
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 8:45 am Post subject: |
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I predicted we'd be the 2nd worst team in the league this year. Page 211 of the Byron P&M thread.
Credit goes to NylonCalculus for being the best advanced stat NBA site around.
| kikanga wrote: | | fiendishoc wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | | fiendishoc wrote: |
Rather than letting someone else classify the roster, do you think we only have 1-2 above average players and everyone else either below average or waste of money? |
The way NC went about their statistical analysis is sound.
LINK
1) Player Ratings: Blend RPM and BPM
2) Adjust player ratings for usage
3) Project Minutes
4) Project pace
5) Adjust for Variance and Project Win probabilities for each game
Here's a explanation to their results for the Lakers.
LINK
| Quote: | | Their young talent look promising, but as I’ve written before – the vast majority of rookies and sophomores don’t contribute positively. Also, the only Laker I project to add net value against a 0.500 lineup is Roy Hibbert (+0.72 per 100). |
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You can't just use what comes out of the black box to support your argument. You have to look at what goes into it in terms of assumptions.
To accept this projection as some sort of unbiased evaluation of the talent on the roster independent of coaching, you have to buy into the following:
1) Roy Hibbert is the only above average player on this roster, which includes Kobe, Randle, Clarkson, Lou Williams, Bass, Huertas, and Russell.
2) The inputs use data from the preceding season, but lets just ignore the fact that Byron was already coaching the returning players on the roster, many of whom had significant declines in efficiency under his watch. The +/- from last year's disastrous unorganized team also play a role as inputs for many of the players, but lets just ignore that too.
3) While the Lakers only have one non-below average player, the Celtics have seven, including Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Amir Johnson, Kelly Olynyk, and Jared Sullinger. (One has to wonder how many of those guys would be classified above average if Byron was coaching that team last season instead of Brad Stevens.)
4) We can't see what he used to project the guys who didn't play in the NBA last season, like Randle and Huertas, and guys who played normal minutes only half the season like Clarkson, but lets just accept that they are below average and Smart is above average. |
It isn't a black box. To say that implies we don't know the stats used in the statistical model.
1) The model doesn't say "Roy Hibbert is the only above average player on this roster". It says "the only Laker I project to add net value against a 0.500 lineup is Roy Hibbert". I'm assuming nobody in this year's rotation did last year. With the exception of maybe Lou (have to look at his defensive numbers).
2) Byron coached Kobe, Young, Clarkson, Kelly, and Black last year. At most 45% of the rotation for this years team. (Sacre, and J. Brown are 3rd string if they make the team this year).
3 -4) "The vast majority of rookies and sophomores don’t contribute positively. " That's a statistical fact. Celtics have 3 1st and 2nd year players in their rotation (Smart, Olynyk, Rozier). I don't think any of them start.
Meanwhile we are expected to start 3 rookies and sophomores this season. Huertas spot at backup is secure (another rookie). And A. Brown could easily break into the rotation as well (another rookie).
*Keep in mind, what conference (and division) you play in determines how many minutes you'll play .500 competition. (See step 5 I posted above: Adjust for Variance and Project Win probabilities for each game).
That plays a role in why Boston has a much higher win total than us. And a higher win total than other, much better teams than us (Chicago for example).
Boston's division (4 games each opponent)
NY, Brooklyn, Philadelphia = projected 70 wins combined
Toronto= projected 47 wins
Chicago's division (4 games each opponent)
Detroit, Milwaukee, Indiana= 38 wins each= projected 114 wins combined
Cleveland = projected 57 wins
Lakers' division (4 games each opponent)
Clippers, Suns, Kings = projected 126 wins combined
GS= projected 64 wins
That just illustrates the difference in divisions. Not even conferences. Not all teams are playing an equal amount of .500 talent. That plays a role in projections.
You've always believed Stevens would coach our team better than Scott. But that isn't a good reason to overlook player stats from last year. That a slippery slope to ignore the validity of a player's stat based on coaching. Projecting our roster's ability against our schedule this year. using how the players performed last year (on our team or another's) makes sense. I can't think of a better mathematically grounded way to project team talent and win totals.
I can understand as a Lakers fan being upset with the notion that Russell, Clarkson, and Randle won't (and normally wouldn't under the average NBA coach) contribute positively against .500 competition. But that's the norm. |
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greenfrog
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Joined: 02 Jan 2011
Posts: 36081
Location: 502 Bad Gateway
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 8:58 am Post subject: |
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I think I predicted 26 wins with an apocalyptic "everyone gives up early and plays selfishly" scenario of 18-21. Not sure if that counts.
The only semi reasonable 30-40 win scenarios required Hibbert having a return to All-Star form, well... |
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dmorans1
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Joined: 11 Sep 2012
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:06 am Post subject: |
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| Did anyone expect Byron to be this bad? |
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fiendishoc
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Joined: 23 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:11 am Post subject: |
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| Process over results. Nylon Calculus didn't explicitly take into account horrific coaching, although some of it was implicit in the RPM inputs. There is no way of attributing the blame between the coach and the players. And a lot of teams in the division / conference are performing way under expectations, which goes against the basis for a lot of the projections. |
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Fastbreak32
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Joined: 11 Oct 2011
Posts: 4746
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:18 am Post subject: |
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| 999 wrote: | | Tell you the truth. I didn't think Byron Scott could be this bad!!! |
I have to admit I'm in the same boat. I knew he wasn't good, but I thought he'd at least be able to hold it down more or less until we got our real coach.
BTW, I like your avi. My teams!
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LeBron, AD, & _________. Stay tuned.
"...there was a time when the Israelites were wandering in the desert and all of a sudden, bread came down from heaven,” Pelinka said. “That’s kind of what today feels like for us to have KCP join.” |
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Vin
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Location: France
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:23 am Post subject: |
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| I knew people thinking playoffs where tripping but I predicted 28 - 35 games. I was tripping aswell. |
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KBH
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Joined: 13 Sep 2008
Posts: 12171
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 10:09 am Post subject: |
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| I expected about 30 wins with 35 wins being the best case scenario. So I certainly didn't expect something like this. Phil Jackson used to say that elite teams won 20 games before they lost 10 and won 40 before they lost 20. We've lost 40 before winning 10. It's astounding how bad we are. |
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KindCrippler2000
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Joined: 02 May 2003
Posts: 15821
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 10:11 am Post subject: |
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| They won 22 games with a worse roster last year. It wasn't unreasonable to think this team could win at least 30 games this year. |
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ringfinger
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Posts: 29418
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 10:24 am Post subject: |
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I tend to view myself as considerably more realistic than the average fan -- and I was still way off.
My prediction factored in injuries and we haven't really had any yet! |
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70sdude
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Joined: 05 Feb 2009
Posts: 4567
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 10:30 am Post subject: |
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I had forecast a ten-plus win improvement, with a probable win ceiling of 34 games. I would not have complained much about that type of improvement.
Thud.
It felt as though dozens of LGers posted thoughts that the squad could be capable of threatening for a playoff berth. Hard to imagine it.
Not to quibble with Mindripper, but it appears they won only 21 games last year. dead:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/2015.html |
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venturalakersfan
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Location: The Gold Coast
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:14 am Post subject: |
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One would think that more talent would result in more wins. I guess that isn't the case.
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RIP mom. 11-21-1933 to 6-14-2023. |
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rwongega
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jonnybravo
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 1:08 pm Post subject: |
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I think the vast majority pegged us right around 30 wins or so with a possibly 35 if the rookies proved to be gold. This is a disaster...we're on pace for 14/15 wins.
A month or so back, I was saying things would get REALLY ugly in here when we hit the meat of our schedule. We were a disaster to start the season and we had a cupcake schedule back then. We can be looking at a 20 game losing streak if we don't beat the Twolves. |
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greenfrog
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Location: 502 Bad Gateway
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 1:24 pm Post subject: |
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| jonnybravo wrote: | I think the vast majority pegged us right around 30 wins or so with a possibly 35 if the rookies proved to be gold. This is a disaster...we're on pace for 14/15 wins.
A month or so back, I was saying things would get REALLY ugly in here when we hit the meat of our schedule. We were a disaster to start the season and we had a cupcake schedule back then. We can be looking at a 20 game losing streak if we don't beat the Twolves. |
I didn't expect 35 but thought it was somewhat possible IF Hibbert had a career resurgence. Instead he's been a complete bust, which probably should have been expected. A smart team like Indiana wasn't going to give anything that good away. |
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Wilkes52
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 1:46 pm Post subject: |
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I was wrong too. I'd hoped for (expected) better play this year too. Had some inkling the team wouldn't be good but this is an all-time worst for the franchise, two seasons in a row.
Though Byron Scott alone incurs fan's wrath these days for the season's problems, I don't feel he's possibly even half of the problem. He's the front office's tool, the puppet whose main job is designed to absorb public criticism without comment.
The front office could have sacked Byron before long before now, if franchise priority had been set upon "winning" or "player development". But it has not been, evidenced by the inaction of the front office. It's team tank all the way from the men who wear ties. The double-talk in the media can't cover it up.
There are a number of players who've had quite the opportunity to carry this team to greater accomplishment, night in and night out. They have become either complicit with the goals of the men with ties or enough of them have simply given up trying to improve play as a team.
The duality is undeniable: sell tickets to a laughingstock team while scratching their heads proclaiming "we're trying." I didn't think that would happen.
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Vancouver Fan
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Joined: 17 Apr 2006
Posts: 17740
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 1:49 pm Post subject: |
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| zePokar wrote: | | I knew people thinking playoffs where tripping but I predicted 28 - 35 games. I was tripping aswell. |
That's where I thought we were going to be. Actually, more between 30 - 40 games. I was even looking forward to seeing scott with a better roster. Who knew he'd do worse and lose most of the support from fans willing to give him some time and leeway.
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cycl0nus
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:10 pm Post subject: |
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| Wilkes52 wrote: | I was wrong too. I'd hoped for (expected) better play this year too. Had some inkling the team wouldn't be good but this is an all-time worst for the franchise, two seasons in a row.
Though Byron Scott alone incurs fan's wrath these days for the season's problems, I don't feel he's possibly even half of the problem. He's the front office's tool, the puppet whose main job is designed to absorb public criticism without comment.
The front office could have sacked Byron before long before now, if franchise priority had been set upon "winning" or "player development". But it has not been, evidenced by the inaction of the front office. It's team tank all the way from the men who wear ties. The double-talk in the media can't cover it up.
There are a number of players who've had quite the opportunity to carry this team to greater accomplishment, night in and night out. They have become either complicit with the goals of the men with ties or enough of them have simply given up trying to improve play as a team.
The duality is undeniable: sell tickets to a laughingstock team while scratching their heads proclaiming "we're trying." I didn't think that would happen. |
and we think kd and rb would leave okc for this mess...  |
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FreakofNature
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Joined: 28 Sep 2007
Posts: 9187
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:17 pm Post subject: |
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I predicted 18 wins. I wanted Porzingis over DLO ( I Like DLO), just at #3, but Porzingis was a close 2nd to Towns for me.
A coach that is totally counter-productive does not help either. |
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Arbitrary
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Joined: 01 Feb 2009
Posts: 5788
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| Posted: Tue Feb 02, 2016 12:05 am Post subject: |
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Guys, we just have to man up.  |
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BigBallerBrand
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Joined: 23 Dec 2008
Posts: 5802
Location: LA
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| Posted: Tue Feb 02, 2016 1:33 am Post subject: |
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I don't know why people r mad. Besides getting a ring, getting a top draft pick is 2nd best outcome in an nba season
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