Justice Scalia: Dead at 79
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tlim
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 12:33 am    Post subject:

Obama should appoint an a candidate that people can't say no to. The longer the nomination drags on based upon the stupidity that is the GOP stunt, the worse the GOP will look.

Nominate someone and that is 10 more months of suffering if they don't want to drag it out. It will prove on a daily basis that the GOP don't want to govern but instead, just wants power.
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 12:38 am    Post subject:

jodeke wrote:
I'd like to see a Native American appointed.


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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 8:54 am    Post subject:

tlim wrote:
Obama should appoint an a candidate that people can't say no to. The longer the nomination drags on based upon the stupidity that is the GOP stunt, the worse the GOP will look.

Nominate someone and that is 10 more months of suffering if they don't want to drag it out. It will prove on a daily basis that the GOP don't want to govern but instead, just wants power.


It can go any way.
Obama can nominate a moderate who might have a slim chance of actually get approved.
Or he can hold off on the nomination, the Democratic voters get ticked off and all show up to vote for a Democratic president on election day, and as a result nominate a far left liberal judge. The Senate won't be able to hold off that nomination for 4 years.
Of course the Republican tactic is to stall, get a Republican President nominated and then get a Conservative judge to replace the one that recently passed.
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 11:09 am    Post subject:

There is a more immediate issue that a lot of people in the media seem to be missing. Even if the Senate blocks a new appointee, the conservative bloc has only four votes now. Only a small number of cases break on purely ideological lines, but these are often the most highly publicized cases. The conservative bloc no longer has the power to do anything in those cases. The best they can hope for is to affirm a lower court ruling by an evenly divided court, which means that the ruling is not precedential. The same is true for the liberal bloc, of course, but they can win if they get a vote from Kennedy or Roberts (which has happened in recent years).

Ginsburg could throw everyone a lifeline by retiring, so that there are two vacancies instead of one. But if she doesn't, the GOP had best pray for the health of Clarence Thomas.
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 12:46 pm    Post subject:

Judge Lance Allan Ito for the SCOUS.
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 12:58 pm    Post subject:

The logical gop strategy is to leave the seat vacant, even through a democratic next presidency (via lack of majority or filibuster), and hope that the odds of either gins berg or Breyer leaving out weight that of the similarly aged kennedy, or the much younger thomas, thus swinging the court back to them.

In the interim, 9 of the 13 lower courts are blue, and control 13 red or purple states, while the four red circuits control 6 blue or purple states. 31 states would have similar court and government leanings. So 2/3 of states would be blue courted, and 1/3 red.

The idea of recess appointments also comes into play.
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Buck32
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:16 pm    Post subject:

The GOP could stall and hope they win in November, but then again they could also end up with a gay Muslim justice appointed by President Bernie Sanders.
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:40 pm    Post subject:

Buck32 wrote:
The GOP could stall and hope they win in November, but then again they could also end up with a gay Muslim justice appointed by President Bernie Sanders.


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kikanga
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 4:54 pm    Post subject:

Interesting read.
LINK

Just gonna quote the most informative part of the article.

Quote:
After food came glasses of sherry. I gathered my courage and decided to ask the two questions I’d considered in advance.

“Justice Scalia, as we’re coming to the end of Bush’s presidency, I wondered if I could ask your opinion on the president’s leadership qualities.”

I recall Justice Scalia leaned back a little and examined my face. He may have thought I was a plant. Nonetheless, he was completely candid. “I have the utmost respect for the Bush family,” he said. “And I’m not a politician or a political figure. But a lot of my fellow Republicans think the older Bush brother is much brighter. That the wrong Bush brother became president.” There in the Gladstone Room of the historic Oxford Union, Justice Scalia indicated that he shared this opinion.

Flash forward to today: Jeb’s presidential campaign is on life support. It’s clear he does not have his brother’s political or interpersonal instincts. But I have a strong suspicion that Jeb would have had Justice Scalia’s support.

I had practiced my second question several times so that I could get it out easily. “Justice Scalia, if there’s one decision you would like reversed from your tenure on the Court, what would that be?”

He didn’t hesitate. “McConnell,” he said, referring to McConnell v. FEC. The case upheld the constitutionality of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002. The BCRA, more commonly called the McCain-Feingold Act, had put in place certain campaign finance rules for corporate and union spending in elections. The Court in 2003 upheld those reforms, and Justice Scalia issued a blistering dissent. As we drank sherry in Oxford, Justice Scalia employed one of his classic hyperboles. “If you’re not free to use money in the political process, then the First Amendment is dead.”

Justice Scalia would get his reversal just two years later. That case is huge and infamous – Citizens United v. FEC – which effectively wiped out bipartisan campaign finance reform and led directly to the super PACs and money free-for-all of the contemporary election cycle. Justice Scalia described his victories on the Court as “damned few,” but there’s no doubt Citizens United was a fundamental change.

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 11:46 pm    Post subject:

Buck32 wrote:
The GOP could stall and hope they win in November, but then again they could also end up with a gay Muslim justice appointed by President Bernie Sanders
.


I know you're being humorous, but in reality, the gop is likely to just refuse to confirm even under a new president. Wait it out and see if one of the liberals retires or dies. Then they have 4-3.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2016 2:24 am    Post subject:

24 wrote:
Buck32 wrote:
The GOP could stall and hope they win in November, but then again they could also end up with a gay Muslim justice appointed by President Bernie Sanders
.


I know you're being humorous, but in reality, the gop is likely to just refuse to confirm even under a new president. Wait it out and see if one of the liberals retires or dies. Then they have 4-3.


Or if they retake the Senate (which is possible), the Dems could expand the "nuclear option" and allow Supreme Court appointments to be approved with a simple majority. It could be dangerous in the long term, yes, but if the Republicans continue to stall for many months even after a Democratic president is elected, there might be enough pressure from the Democratic base to change the rule.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2016 3:23 am    Post subject:

He's been mentioned in this thread already, but Obama has to be giving serious thought about nominating Sri Srinivasan. The guy was confirmed by the Senate to the DC Court of Appeals by a 97-0 vote, and it was recent, too (2013). Literally no opposition whatsoever. I realize that a Supreme Court appointment is another step up, but the DC appointment is considered the second-highest court in the country. If he's nominated and the GOP either votes no on him or just delays the vote, perhaps it will hurt them in the general election. How much could have changed since 2013 to where the GOP would think he's no longer qualified? I know what's at stake for them, but it's also possible that independent/undecided voters will see an obstructionist play as hypocritical, given their support of him in 2013.

As best as I can tell, he was a litigator (25 times before SCOTUS, actually) before he was appointed to his current post in 2013, and his history as a litigator shows that he was involved in arguments across party lines. He was on Al Gore's legal team in 2000, for example, but he has also argued for Exxon Mobil (successfully, in a case about human rights violations in Indonesia), as well as former Enron president Jeffrey Skilling (unsuccessfully, in a financial fraud case). Unless his rulings in his current post show a sharp leaning to the left, it might make the GOP look bad to block his nomination.

Obama has a lot to consider, in terms of how he wants to play this. His biggest concern, I'm sure, is that he doesn't want to galvanize voters on the Republican side. And the GOP leadership is going to have to ask itself, if Srinivasan is indeed nominated, if it might be galvanizing Democratic voters if they block President Obama here.
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2016 6:01 am    Post subject:

Here's an analysis of likely nominees:

http://www.scotusblog.com/2016/02/how-the-politics-of-the-next-nomination-will-pay-out/

In my opinion, this guy is really overthinking the political side of the equation. Lynch would be disqualified from any case involving the federal government for the next several years. That makes her an impractical nominee.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2016 6:47 am    Post subject:

The obstructionism by the Republicans, as advertised, will be unprecedented. Again, they will show it is not about country, but party, and how they have further lost their moral compass. By depriving the SCOTUS of its last, and often deciding, member, especially in this FiveFour Court, thus possibly rendering it useless and unable to achieve its constitutional duty, we will not only lack the deciding member to complete the current SCOTUS calendar, but they will likely miss the entire next calendar from Oct-Mar.

This is the Republican version of packing the court.

Republicans just love to talk of the desires of the founders and framers, of constitutionality, but I hardly doubt the framers goal was create a system of checks and balances where one of the checks, the highest court in land, was possibly unable to reach a consensus and perform its essential duty for over a year, and likely for over twenty months.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2016 7:45 am    Post subject:

Not really. It's a political process. The GOP would be entitled to schedule a vote on every nominee, and then vote them down. The Senate has no obligation -- constitutional or otherwise -- to confirm a nominee. Anyone who tells you otherwise is just plain wrong. Do not forget Robert Bork.

The GOP controls the Senate, and it does not have to accept a liberal majority on the Supreme Court. Anyone who tells you otherwise is just plain wrong. Again, do not forget Robert Bork.

The GOP would tell you that this is about country and how they are refusing to allow the country to lose its moral compass. The GOP is under no obligation to confirm a justice who would create a majority that favors a constitutional and moral agenda that the GOP considers to be repugnant.

If you think that the Supreme Court cannot do its duty with just eight members, then you are mistaken. It is the GOP that has lost its fifth vote, not the country. Only a small number of cases each year are actually decided by 5-4 margins.

Bottom line: If it makes you feel good to be outraged, that's cool. However, this is all about politics, just as it has always been. Historically, about one in five Supreme Court nominees have been denied confirmation. The Senate is not a rubber stamp.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2016 8:22 am    Post subject:

If there has to be outrage, it should be directed at the millions of liberals who don't show up to vote in midterm elections, which has allowed the GOP to control the Senate and win seats even in otherwise "blue" states.
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ribeye
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2016 11:31 am    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Not really. It's a political process. The GOP would be entitled to schedule a vote on every nominee, and then vote them down. The Senate has no obligation -- constitutional or otherwise -- to confirm a nominee. Anyone who tells you otherwise is just plain wrong. Do not forget Robert Bork.

The GOP controls the Senate, and it does not have to accept a liberal majority on the Supreme Court. Anyone who tells you otherwise is just plain wrong. Again, do not forget Robert Bork.

The GOP would tell you that this is about country and how they are refusing to allow the country to lose its moral compass. The GOP is under no obligation to confirm a justice who would create a majority that favors a constitutional and moral agenda that the GOP considers to be repugnant.

If you think that the Supreme Court cannot do its duty with just eight members, then you are mistaken. It is the GOP that has lost its fifth vote, not the country. Only a small number of cases each year are actually decided by 5-4 margins.

Bottom line: If it makes you feel good to be outraged, that's cool. However, this is all about politics, just as it has always been. Historically, about one in five Supreme Court nominees have been denied confirmation. The Senate is not a rubber stamp.


You are confusing the confirmation process of an individual, or denial as you present with Bork, as being the same a stating in advance, before any singular nomination, that they will not confirm anyone, leaving the court one member shy for effectively 20 months.

And yes, many of the major decisions by the Roberts court and the Rehnquist court before him, were 5-4 decisions.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2016 11:43 am    Post subject:

ribeye wrote:
You are confusing the confirmation process of an individual, or denial as you present with Bork, as being the same a stating in advance, before any singular nomination, that they will not confirm anyone, leaving the court one member shy for effectively 20 months.


I'm not sure where you are coming up with 20 months, but never mind. More importantly, what is the difference? Obama will nominate people. The Senate can either vote them down or just refuse to vote. So what? If Obama chooses to nominate a conservative darling, the Senate will probably confirm him or her.

The Senate has no obligation to confirm a nominee, and there is nothing out of bounds about refusing to confirm a nominee on purely political grounds.
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ribeye
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2016 11:58 am    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
ribeye wrote:
You are confusing the confirmation process of an individual, or denial as you present with Bork, as being the same a stating in advance, before any singular nomination, that they will not confirm anyone, leaving the court one member shy for effectively 20 months.


I'm not sure where you are coming up with 20 months, but never mind. More importantly, what is the difference? Obama will nominate people. The Senate can either vote them down or just refuse to vote. So what? If Obama chooses to nominate a conservative darling, the Senate will probably confirm him or her.

The Senate has no obligation to confirm a nominee, and there is nothing out of bounds about refusing to confirm a nominee on purely political grounds.


20 months would in October 2017, that would be, in all likelihood, the next session of hearings when a new member would be able to participate.

By your way of thinking, the Senate would never have to confirm anyone if the opposite party had control--why not two years or three or more?

This is clearly not the intention of the framers and goes to show how our system of democracy--with the threats of not paying our bills (the debt limit increases); with constant filibusters or cloture votes; with threats to never compromise; with threats to never raise taxes--has been perverted. I won't say it is failing, but it is far from healthy either.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2016 12:17 pm    Post subject:

Supreme Court Short List? Deep bench of potential nominees to succeed Scalia

LINK
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2016 12:34 pm    Post subject:

ribeye wrote:
20 months would in October 2017, that would be, in all likelihood, the next session of hearings when a new member would be able to participate.


Incorrect. It doesn't work that way.

ribeye wrote:
By your way of thinking, the Senate would never have to confirm anyone if the opposite party had control--why not two years or three or more?


Exactly.

ribeye wrote:
This is clearly not the intention of the framers


The Framers required advice and consent of the Senate. The Framers may not have envisioned the current gridlock, but likewise the Framers did not give the President the power to just appoint judges at his/her discretion.
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ribeye
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2016 1:02 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
ribeye wrote:
20 months would in October 2017, that would be, in all likelihood, the next session of hearings when a new member would be able to participate.


Incorrect. It doesn't work that way.

ribeye wrote:
By your way of thinking, the Senate would never have to confirm anyone if the opposite party had control--why not two years or three or more?


Exactly.

ribeye wrote:
This is clearly not the intention of the framers


The Framers required advice and consent of the Senate. The Framers may not have envisioned the current gridlock, but likewise the Framers did not give the President the power to just appoint judges at his/her discretion.


Do explain why a new member of the court would be able to participate in a new hearing, due to the time required for the vetting and confirmation process, before the beginning (for the 2017/2018 calendar) of October 2017--unless, by some unexpected unrealistic expeditious acceleration of the vetting and confirmation process, at the very hectic beginning of the next president's and congress's next term with everything else new going on, that would confirm a new judge before the end of March 2016, when the previous (2016/2017 calendar) SCOTUS hearing calendar is completed.

And I don't believe anyone is saying, I'm certainly not, that the president should appoint at his discretion. His appointees should get a fair hearing, is what I, and I suspect most objective people as well, believe to be the intention of the framers, what has worked, and what must be for the process to be productive.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2016 2:03 pm    Post subject:

A new justice is a member of the court from the moment of confirmation. If the justice was not confirmed at the time of oral argument, and if the new justice's vote would make a difference, it is customary to reargue the case. However, I don't believe that this is actually required. Oral argument is mostly ceremonial anyway.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2016 2:51 pm    Post subject:

I don't remember most of Scalia's writings. I'll always remember him causing the freedom of Rubin Hurricane Jackson.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2016 4:24 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Not really. It's a political process. The GOP would be entitled to schedule a vote on every nominee, and then vote them down. The Senate has no obligation -- constitutional or otherwise -- to confirm a nominee. Anyone who tells you otherwise is just plain wrong. Do not forget Robert Bork.

The GOP controls the Senate, and it does not have to accept a liberal majority on the Supreme Court. Anyone who tells you otherwise is just plain wrong. Again, do not forget Robert Bork.

The GOP would tell you that this is about country and how they are refusing to allow the country to lose its moral compass. The GOP is under no obligation to confirm a justice who would create a majority that favors a constitutional and moral agenda that the GOP considers to be repugnant.

If you think that the Supreme Court cannot do its duty with just eight members, then you are mistaken. It is the GOP that has lost its fifth vote, not the country. Only a small number of cases each year are actually decided by 5-4 margins.

Bottom line: If it makes you feel good to be outraged, that's cool. However, this is all about politics, just as it has always been. Historically, about one in five Supreme Court nominees have been denied confirmation. The Senate is not a rubber stamp.


That's a fair critique, although advise and consent is not quite the same as leverage and reject ad infinitum. And one in five isn't a bad precedent. It means that in general, the body has done its job, which is to fill the seat.
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