OFFICIAL BRANDON INGRAM THREAD
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tox
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:01 pm    Post subject:

Staccatos wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:

DRPM 2017-18

Brown 0.91
Tatum 1.97
Ingram -0.28


I don't buy any proprietary and hidden stat that ESPN promotes. Real statistics should be transparent and available for cross verification.

I don't know about the Celtics' players, but -0.28 sounds just about right for Ingram defensively. He's pretty average, which as a skinny 20 year old is pretty impressive. But it also speaks to the disappointment that Ingram doesn't really have huge impact; notably he's not disruptive a la Lonzo, which shows both in block/steal numbers and in DRPM.

This all said, I endorse your post about not trusting RPM because there's no transparency in ESPN calculating it.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:05 pm    Post subject:

crucifixion wrote:
I'd be very interested to see Ingram at PG full time. Luckily we have Ball

Fixed. There’s a reason the numbers show he’s poor as a primary creator and great when he’s not. And it’s not that the numbers are bias.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:16 pm    Post subject:

Judah wrote:
crucifixion wrote:
I'd be very interested to see Ingram at PG full time. Problem is we have Ball



That's like saying, 'I wish I didn't have two mansions.'


Well in the Lakers case we have 3 mansions and BI is a double story house.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:23 pm    Post subject:

I wouldn’t necessarily call him average defensively and a guy who doesn’t really have huge Impact, considering we were on our way to winning 40+ games, when he was playing very good during February. before he went down with that dumb injury in Miami, he was playing like a Impact player and will even be more Inpactful next to a great player ala Kyrie Irving.. this year.

Also if his D is average why did he give guys like Durant and Paul George problems defensively?
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tox
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:32 pm    Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:
I wouldn’t necessarily call him average defensively and a guy who doesn’t really have huge Impact, considering we were on our way to winning 40+ games, when he was playing very good during February. before he went down with that dumb injury in Miami, he was playing like a Impact player and will even be more Inpactful next to a great player ala Kyrie Irving.. this year.

Also if his D is average why did he give guys like Durant and Paul George problems defensively?

What a bizarre comment. During his best streak his main impact was on offense, not defense. And basketball is a team sport so it's not like he alone contributed to the Lakers being on a winning pace.

I don't recall him ever giving Durant trouble but even if he did, you can be a good on ball defender and still be meh defensively because most of defense is team defense anyway. That is where being disruptive is so important.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:27 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
I wouldn’t necessarily call him average defensively and a guy who doesn’t really have huge Impact, considering we were on our way to winning 40+ games, when he was playing very good during February. before he went down with that dumb injury in Miami, he was playing like a Impact player and will even be more Inpactful next to a great player ala Kyrie Irving.. this year.

Also if his D is average why did he give guys like Durant and Paul George problems defensively?

What a bizarre comment. During his best streak his main impact was on offense, not defense. And basketball is a team sport so it's not like he alone contributed to the Lakers being on a winning pace.

I don't recall him ever giving Durant trouble but even if he did, you can be a good on ball defender and still be meh defensively because most of defense is team defense anyway. That is where being disruptive is so important.


His Impact was on offense, but also being the guy who was setting the table by making crisp passes and good reads to the players which was one of the reasons why we started to play better during that February stretch...

http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakers/la-sp-lakers-report-20180323-story.html
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2018 11:20 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Staccatos wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:

DRPM 2017-18

Brown 0.91
Tatum 1.97
Ingram -0.28


I don't buy any proprietary and hidden stat that ESPN promotes. Real statistics should be transparent and available for cross verification.

You must really hate Cranjis' stuff then.


Incorrect. I don't hate Cranjis' stuff. Cranjis explains what his stuff says. For example different points per possession based on play type. I'd reckon that he wouldn't mind sharing how he comes up with his numbers if you ask him.

ESPN doesn't really explain what RPM says. They say it "shares a family resemblance with the +/- stat in the box score" and is meant to show who "has been more valuable to his team". What ESPN wants to do is do a one stat rules all ranking of players in a way only they know what they are doing that they can tweak the numbers around until they like the results.

What I want from stats is for it to tell me something. Like 4/8 from the 3pt line. I know they made 50% of their 3pt shots. I can go back and watch the game and see it.

If ESPN tells me a player had 1.7 RPM, I can't go look at what the (bleep) that means.

Stats should tell me one thing:

A. What happened

On the other hand, predictive analytics using statistical models should indicate:

B. What should I expect in the future

"RPM is meant to be predictive" according to this article, which puts it in category B:

https://cornerthreehoops.wordpress.com/2014/04/17/explaining-espns-real-plus-minus/

My problem with how people throw around RPM is that "Real Plus-Minus does NOT measure how well a player has performed this season. " If it was supposed to show you what happened this season, then it WOULDN'T USE DATA FROM OTHER SEASONS.

ESPN is truly atrocious at predictions. If you tried gambling based on what ESPN told you, you'd be in a deep dark hole. It kind of leads me to believe that all predictive models for sports are pretty crap. ESPN wants to sell you a narrative of what they want their story to say and RPM is just one of their ways to sell you on their (bleep).
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tox
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2018 12:11 am    Post subject:

RPM does mean something. It is the estimated number of points a team is better with you on the court versus an average player. Whether or not it does a good job in that role is another question, but it's a pretty simple concept.

And note: we are talking about projecting Brandon Ingram's defense going forward, then of course we are going to use a predictive stat, so I'm not sure what the hangup here is.
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tox
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2018 12:15 am    Post subject:

Also, there are reasons to be skeptical about RPM (mostly the way the priors are a black box), but it is so much better of a statistical model than Cranjis's stuff that you really shouldn't even compare the two. Cranjis falls under the Hollinger (i.e. PER) school of "hey I'm just gonna arbitrarily put these stats together that I think make sense." And maybe you trust his expertise enough to believe the numbers he puts out. That is fair.

But RPM (and related stats like RAPM and APM) is constructed more soundly. There is a sensible goal (for every possession in the NBA, predicting whether one group of five players would outscore another group of five players), and a classic statistical technique (ridge regression) is applied. Your criticism of RPM is way too sharp.
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2018 7:42 am    Post subject:

BigGameHames wrote:
crucifixion wrote:
I'd be very interested to see Ingram at PG full time. Luckily we have Ball

Fixed. There’s a reason the numbers show he’s poor as a primary creator and great when he’s not. And it’s not that the numbers are bias.
I guess people are okay with flat out ignoring the fact that Ingram (and the team!) played extremely well when given the opportunity to actually play point
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2018 7:52 am    Post subject:

tox wrote:
Also, there are reasons to be skeptical about RPM (mostly the way the priors are a black box), but it is so much better of a statistical model than Cranjis's stuff that you really shouldn't even compare the two. Cranjis falls under the Hollinger (i.e. PER) school of "hey I'm just gonna arbitrarily put these stats together that I think make sense." And maybe you trust his expertise enough to believe the numbers he puts out. That is fair.

But RPM (and related stats like RAPM and APM) is constructed more soundly. There is a sensible goal (for every possession in the NBA, predicting whether one group of five players would outscore another group of five players), and a classic statistical technique (ridge regression) is applied. Your criticism of RPM is way too sharp.

Have you seen Cranjis' models?
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1ngr4m
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:22 am    Post subject:

All these top 100 lists having Brown around 30 spots higher then Ingram make me (bleep) sick.

What a (bleep) joke
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:32 am    Post subject:

30 spots higher than Ingram? HAHAHAHA I cant wait till people shut up about Brown
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:56 am    Post subject:

tox wrote:
Also, there are reasons to be skeptical about RPM (mostly the way the priors are a black box), but it is so much better of a statistical model than Cranjis's stuff that you really shouldn't even compare the two. Cranjis falls under the Hollinger (i.e. PER) school of "hey I'm just gonna arbitrarily put these stats together that I think make sense." And maybe you trust his expertise enough to believe the numbers he puts out. That is fair.

But RPM (and related stats like RAPM and APM) is constructed more soundly. There is a sensible goal (for every possession in the NBA, predicting whether one group of five players would outscore another group of five players), and a classic statistical technique (ridge regression) is applied. Your criticism of RPM is way too sharp.


That's interesting coming from you. How'd you come to that conclusion?
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:06 am    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:


Dude, I pinch myself every single day. I'm a simple guy, I wear basketball shorts and flip-flops almost all of the time. I don't have a taste for nice clothes, nice cars, a huge mansion, or anything like that. Never have.

The only luxury item I've ever had a burning desire for was Lakers' season tickets. That was seriously a life goal of mine, to be in a position where I could afford season tickets. Now not only do I not have to pay for them, I get paid to go to the games and give my thoughts on them...and then they let me in the locker room and I get to talk to the coach and the players!!!


Happy for you GT!
I have a similar dream involving Puerto Rico's womens indoor volleyball team.
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KeepItRealOrElse
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:07 am    Post subject:

Cranjis said he was influenced by college(? , maybe NBA) coaches on what stats to put together and value for his models
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tox
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:43 am    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
tox wrote:
Also, there are reasons to be skeptical about RPM (mostly the way the priors are a black box), but it is so much better of a statistical model than Cranjis's stuff that you really shouldn't even compare the two. Cranjis falls under the Hollinger (i.e. PER) school of "hey I'm just gonna arbitrarily put these stats together that I think make sense." And maybe you trust his expertise enough to believe the numbers he puts out. That is fair.

But RPM (and related stats like RAPM and APM) is constructed more soundly. There is a sensible goal (for every possession in the NBA, predicting whether one group of five players would outscore another group of five players), and a classic statistical technique (ridge regression) is applied. Your criticism of RPM is way too sharp.


That's interesting coming from you. How'd you come to that conclusion?

OK in total fairness I was thinking about his stats like DPOE and OPOE or whatever -- the one where he blended RPM, per-possession stats, and a few other things? He had some other stats when he launched his bball index or whatever that likewise annoyed me but I can't remember the particulars.

That said, I actually just scanned his twitter and ended up finding this comment on an AMA on reddit:

Quote:
Something we're aware of and have tolerated has been confusion and distrust because we haven't revealed full methodology around the grades. We also made the mistake of sharing sneak peaks of grades while still working on them (which we stated, but was still a bad call on my part). Early ratings and tweets were deleted as methodologies evolved, particularly after consulting with NBA team analytics staff and comparing our data with proprietary data. Since then, we've been getting closer and closer to where we are now, which is good player evaluation. But people will still be mad about a grade they didn't agree with from a couple months ago from a system that's far different from what it is now.


So... can I take back those harsh words? I shouldn't be passing judgement on his work when he has clearly made changes to my original understanding of it. If you're reading this Cranjis, sorry
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:45 am    Post subject:

crucifixion wrote:
I'd be very interested to see Ingram at PG full time. Problem is we have Ball


Well Ball is a PG and Ingram isn’t
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:48 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
awntawn wrote:
crucifixion wrote:
manlisten wrote:
That cranjis chart is a little misleading imo. In his second season at barely 20 years old, BI was an unknown quantity. You're trying to figure out what he's good at and in order to do so you have to find out what he's not good at. He has to be "misused", so to speak, before he can be used properly. Just a necessary part of development.
not only that if you look at that analysis as a whole for all players you'll see that there's about 10 average players with the same stats. So basically they are just on picking and choosing the analytics that fit their narrative

You're misunderstanding their narrative though. They're not trying to say Ingram's ceiling is a role player. If anything, those numbers are an explanation as to why Ingram's advanced stats are bad, and why a lot of stats people who don't watch him play think he's "not a good player right now". The reality is that he is a very good player, he just has a poor impact because he's being asked to do more than he's ready to right now.

Think of how the narrative on guys like Tatum and Brown on the Celtics are. Their ceilings are projected as super high because they're so young and already have such high statistical impact on games. A lot of people like to say Ingram "isn't close to as good as those guys right now" because his advanced stats aren't as good. That chart is saying that those advanced stats would be significantly higher if he were placed in a similar role as those guys. Instead, he's basically being put in position to fail with a tough role on the court, and his advanced stats suffer because of it.

Whether or not being put in that position is good or bad for development is the question that is up for debate, and even guys like Cranjis wonder the same thing. They're not trying to push a negative narrative on Ingram. They're basically saying that with Lebron on the team, Ingram's role will be more towards what he's good at, and he will be much more effective this year because of it. That's not including how much he got better from training this summer.

DRPM 2017-18

Brown 0.91
Tatum 1.97
Ingram -0.28


I'll be the first to acknowledge that I'm not inclined toward deep analysis of stats as some are, but the emboldened makes complete sense to me. Besides the fact that his stats would significantly improve because of a role change calculated to put him in position to be more effective, there's also the facts that:

1. the Lakers talent level was that of a 35 win team, not a playoff team..that's about to change, and his stats will reflect that.

2. being talented enough to run the point effectively at 6'9, which you would never ask either Brown or Tatum to do, reflects an entirely different and unique skill set. The major difference is that BI can do more things well.

What we're hoping for, and what will make him a "problem" for the league, is when he puts it all together.
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:53 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Staccatos wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:

DRPM 2017-18

Brown 0.91
Tatum 1.97
Ingram -0.28


I don't buy any proprietary and hidden stat that ESPN promotes. Real statistics should be transparent and available for cross verification.

You must really hate Cranjis' stuff then.


It’s not a question of hate, it is a question of value. All advanced stats begin with someone thinking “this is important”. And it might be. I personally find his stats interesting and thought provoking.
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2018 12:30 pm    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
crucifixion wrote:
I'd be very interested to see Ingram at PG full time. Problem is we have Ball


Well Ball is a PG and Ingram isn’t


Are harden, greek freak, simmons PG?

if no, then why did their coach start them at PG

if yes, What makes them PG?
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2018 1:41 pm    Post subject:

watchME wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
crucifixion wrote:
I'd be very interested to see Ingram at PG full time. Problem is we have Ball


Well Ball is a PG and Ingram isn’t


Are harden, greek freak, simmons PG?

if no, then why did their coach start them at PG

if yes, What makes them PG?


So you would rather have Ingram at PG than Lonzo?
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2018 2:18 pm    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
watchME wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
crucifixion wrote:
I'd be very interested to see Ingram at PG full time. Problem is we have Ball


Well Ball is a PG and Ingram isn’t


Are harden, greek freak, simmons PG?

if no, then why did their coach start them at PG

if yes, What makes them PG?


So you would rather have Ingram at PG than Lonzo?

He actually would. He hates Lonzo.
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2018 2:47 pm    Post subject:

I believe Ingram has proven he could be a really good point guard full time.. When you have a potential Jason Kidd already on the squad you should probably roll with the Jason Kidd guy.

If we didn't have Ball I'd consider starting him at the 1 full time. Or if D'Ang was still here.
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2018 4:19 pm    Post subject:

dao wrote:
BigGameHames wrote:
crucifixion wrote:
I'd be very interested to see Ingram at PG full time. Luckily we have Ball

Fixed. There’s a reason the numbers show he’s poor as a primary creator and great when he’s not. And it’s not that the numbers are bias.
I guess people are okay with flat out ignoring the fact that Ingram (and the team!) played extremely well when given the opportunity to actually play point


And you are flat out ignoring the very small sample size. Ingram can be a good player, I don’t get the trend of trying to make players something they aren’t. Ingram was put at point first because he disappeared on offense when he didn’t have the ball and secondly because Lonzo was hurt and we had D League backups. If something happens to Lonzo we now have Rondo and Hart. Now Ingram as a perimeter creator sounds nice. Just as long as he learns not to hold the ball too long.
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