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MJST
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 Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:41 am Post subject: |
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| fiendishoc wrote: | | It was easy to predict that once Ingram started showing some signs, people would start trying to use him to somehow bash DLO. How about we don't go down that path? |
People will praise Ingram's 5 game stretch of 11 points, but conveniently forget Russell's 8 game stretch of over 20 last year.
GT has said it many times, Ingram was someone universally wanted by these fans, and Russell was not. So Ingram will get all the "patience" posts and "he's just 19" posts and the benefits that Russell will never get.
Russell put forth more impressive stretches than Ingram has thus far in his rookie season but the way some people go about it you'd assume it never happened.
But people that have made the decision that they'd rather be 'right' than 'wrong' and will try to latch on to anything negative about Russell to ensure that show where their allegiances lay. It isn't with the Lakers, it's with their own egos and 'need' to be right more so than admitting they're wrong and enjoying having both. |
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anpherknee
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:49 am Post subject: |
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only reason I can think of for the thirst for humbleness in athletes is....jealousy
mans celebrate a good play in the heat of competition or make a few statments asserting unwavering belief in himself and fans start bringing hateration all up in this dancery
https://media.giphy.com/media/l41YkSwy2426hEgOk/giphy.gif
for why tho fam
for whyyyyy
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:52 am Post subject: |
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| MJST wrote: | | fiendishoc wrote: | | It was easy to predict that once Ingram started showing some signs, people would start trying to use him to somehow bash DLO. How about we don't go down that path? |
People will praise Ingram's 5 game stretch of 11 points, but conveniently forget Russell's 8 game stretch of over 20 last year.
GT has said it many times, Ingram was someone universally wanted by these fans, and Russell was not. So Ingram will get all the "patience" posts and "he's just 19" posts and the benefits that Russell will never get.
Russell put forth more impressive stretches than Ingram has thus far in his rookie season but the way some people go about it you'd assume it never happened.
But people that have made the decision that they'd rather be 'right' than 'wrong' and will try to latch on to anything negative about Russell to ensure that show where their allegiances lay. It isn't with the Lakers, it's with their own egos and 'need' to be right more so than admitting they're wrong and enjoying having both. |
Yeah. We should be very happy about the long term prospects of both of these dudes hitting their stride together.
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MJST
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:53 am Post subject: |
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| anpherknee wrote: | only reason I can think of for the thirst for humbleness in athletes is....jealousy
mans celebrate a good play in the heat of competition or make a few statments asserting unwavering belief in himself and fans start bringing hateration all up in this dancery
https://media.giphy.com/media/l41YkSwy2426hEgOk/giphy.gif
for why tho fam
for whyyyyy
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If Ingram shows emotion or yells at Deng for not taking a shot
"I like it! He's showing some emotion or taking initiative!"
Russell does the same thing
"ugh this kid is so full of himself! Back it up first before you try to act like you should take initiative! and why are you even showing emotion!? Earn it first!"
just the spoiled brat nature of how some fans treat the player they wanted and refuse to be wrong about, vs the player they didn't want and refuse to be wrong about. |
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anpherknee
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 12:23 pm Post subject: |
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mans starting at point again
time to get that triple double right quick  |
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dao
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 12:24 pm Post subject: |
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| tox wrote: | | nash wrote: | | tox wrote: | | I think most would agree more with RPM, with the benefit of hindsight |
RPM tell us to keep Nance over any other young asset.
Well, I love Nance so I'm fine, but I really don't believe he is going to be a franchise player. |
First of all, Nance is basically older than every other young player, so no it doesn't.
Anyways, the fundamental argument you are making only works if you don't understand how RPM works and see it as a black box. As it happens to be, I know exactly how RPM works and I understand its limitations. What you are missing is the fact that RPM [essentially] judges how effective a player is in his role.
RPM confirms what we knew from watching Okafor: he might put up numbers, but he does so at the expense of his team. There's a role for him in a team somewhere, but it's not as the centerpiece of the offense as the "eye test" folks were convinced he was.
RPM confirms what most of us see watching Nance: he is efficient on offense, is a great defender, doesn't make mistakes, and makes all the right little plays. The team is just better when he's playing. BUT he doesn't have a big role.
Your mistake is in assuming that this means LNJ is "better" than anyone. No, that's not what it means. If you only played Shaq at point guard and as the lead ballhandler, you better bet he'll have a God awful RPM. That doesn't mean he's a bad player; it means he's ineffective in his role. |
Maybe you can shine some light on this. It seems that real plus minus makes some determination of how good a player is based on his past performance, and uses that assumption to divvy up 'credit' to individual players based on the performance of 5 man units. But in the case of a young player that suddenly improves their play significantly, it seems that their suddenly improved performance would be underestimated by RPM based on their previous assessment of how good they are. I'm asking this based on this article:
| Quote: | For instance, I mentioned earlier that RPM uses data from previous seasons in its priors. If my primary goal is to evaluate how well a player did this season, it wouldn’t make a lot of sense to use data from other seasons. However, if I want to predict what will happen in the future, the older numbers can help me differentiate between players who have been consistently good (and will likely keep being good) and players who are merely going through a hot streak (and will likely regress to their mean).
This has a number of implications. One is that RPM tends to be skeptical of player improvements (or regressions) that exceed what is expected for a player that age. This season, Anthony Davis improved much faster than most 20-21 year old playes. People who watch basketball know that Davis is super talented and accelerated growth is expected from him. However, Real Plus-Minus doesn’t understand this and suspects that Davis’ numbers might be a random blip. As a result, Real Plus-Minus is liable to underestimate Davis’s impact this season9. |
https://cornerthreehoops.wordpress.com/2014/04/17/explaining-espns-real-plus-minus/
So with Ingram starting at such a low level, is it the case that RPM will be skeptical of improvement and make it tough for him to increase his RPM in a way that is consistent with his increase in performance?
Also, I haven't been able to fine a link that gives any significant detail as to how the RPM is calculated. Since they make assumptions on how good a player is, I wonder if assumptions based on stats are also used to determine a player's defensive contribution to 5 man units. Ingram gets very low steal and block numbers, so that made me want to check his DBPM because I got a feeling that they would significantly underestimate his defense based on low steals and blocks.
In order, these are the defensive RPM for everyone on the team:
Nance: 1.56
Black: 1.04
Deng: 0.89
Zubac: 0.35
Metta: 0.26
Randle: 0.22
Mozgov: -0.16
Russell: -0.66
TRob: -0.75
Calderon: -0.98
Huertes: -1.06
Clarkson: -2.05
Young: -2.11
Lou: -2.13
Ingram: -2.85
So RPM tells us that Ingram has been, by far, the worst defender on the team. Obviously this is extremely off base. Please explain this. I can't take this 'worst RPM in the league' talk anymore after looking at this least. There is no way in hell Ingram has been the worst defender on the Lakers! Ingram has the 7th worse DRPM in the entire NBA, out of 438 players. Horse pucky! |
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tox
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 1:29 pm Post subject: |
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-28 in 12 minutes
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GoldenThroat
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 1:31 pm Post subject: |
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| Luke does him a disservice by putting him at PG with the Young/Deng/Randle/Mozgov lineup, IMO. |
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Jakanzi
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 1:45 pm Post subject: |
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| GoldenThroat wrote: | | Luke does him a disservice by putting him at PG with the Young/Deng/Randle/Mozgov lineup, IMO. |
I don't necessarily mind the move. I think Luke had an idea of what to expect when he put Zubac out there to guard Jefferson the other night too. If they do well, great. If not, well then they have some useful film to show. Both have at least a sense of purpose in developing Ingram as a ball handler and Zubac as a post defender. |
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tox
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 1:47 pm Post subject: |
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| dao wrote: |
Maybe you can shine some light on this. It seems that real plus minus makes some determination of how good a player is based on his past performance, and uses that assumption to divvy up 'credit' to individual players based on the performance of 5 man units. But in the case of a young player that suddenly improves their play significantly, it seems that their suddenly improved performance would be underestimated by RPM based on their previous assessment of how good they are. I'm asking this based on this article:
| Quote: | For instance, I mentioned earlier that RPM uses data from previous seasons in its priors. If my primary goal is to evaluate how well a player did this season, it wouldn’t make a lot of sense to use data from other seasons. However, if I want to predict what will happen in the future, the older numbers can help me differentiate between players who have been consistently good (and will likely keep being good) and players who are merely going through a hot streak (and will likely regress to their mean).
This has a number of implications. One is that RPM tends to be skeptical of player improvements (or regressions) that exceed what is expected for a player that age. This season, Anthony Davis improved much faster than most 20-21 year old playes. People who watch basketball know that Davis is super talented and accelerated growth is expected from him. However, Real Plus-Minus doesn’t understand this and suspects that Davis’ numbers might be a random blip. As a result, Real Plus-Minus is liable to underestimate Davis’s impact this season9. |
https://cornerthreehoops.wordpress.com/2014/04/17/explaining-espns-real-plus-minus/
So with Ingram starting at such a low level, is it the case that RPM will be skeptical of improvement and make it tough for him to increase his RPM in a way that is consistent with his increase in performance?
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So the analysis you quoted from that blog is accurate. When it comes to Ingram, there obviously isn't any past data for it to set its priors on (it just assumes Ingram will be bad because he's a rookie), so it's not an issue for Ingram right now. If Ingram started to play really well this season, it wouldn't be like RPM would stay skeptical of him, if that makes sense? The prior only applies to past seasons.
Going forward, yes, it is the case that Ingram's poor rookie showing (in terms of RPM) will probably underestimate how well he's played in the future. But it's presumably only one year of suckitude. So you can expect that by Year 3 or 4, Ingram's poor rookie showing will be erased, and its ratings will be more dependent on his 2nd and 3rd year campaigns.
Finally, your interpretation of the analysis is a little bit off. It's not that it uses priors to decide how to divide credit. Rather, it uses priors just as a baseline of "This is how good I expect him to be." (Bayesian) stats require a prior. It mostly divides credit based on understanding lineup data and quality of opposition. One reason why Russell is well-liked by RPM is because the starting lineup just falls apart without him. So RPM looks at that and says, "Hmm he must be pretty valuable if this unit goes from +7 Net Rating with Russell to -25 without him."
| Quote: | | Also, I haven't been able to fine a link that gives any significant detail as to how the RPM is calculated. Since they make assumptions on how good a player is, I wonder if assumptions based on stats are also used to determine a player's defensive contribution to 5 man units. |
Watch this video.
This isn't RPM but RAPM; unfortunately RPM is ESPN's proprietary version of RAPM, and they keep it as a black box. That's one reason I'm not a big fan of RAPM versus RPM... but they're both good stats. This video is pretty technical and I have no idea how digestible it is, though.
The bottom line is that DRPM does not base its evaluation of a player's defense on blocks & steals for the most part. Like with past years' data (as described in that blog post), the model uses box scores as part of its prior. So to an extent it matters.
To better understand why Ingram's DRPM score is so bad, you should look at lineup data. Part of it is he's just not quite as good a defender as people think as a rookie. But RPM has him bottom-10 in the league, which is silly. I'll just say... wait a week or so and I promise I'll get you a breakdown on his DRPM numbers 
| Quote: | | Ingram gets very low steal and block numbers, so that made me want to check his DBPM because I got a feeling that they would significantly underestimate his defense based on low steals and blocks. |
Absolutely, you are right. DBPM will underrate guys who don't put up big steals and blocks numbers. But DBPM is a weird stat and a pretty bad one. A really big part of DBPM is just this "rebound x assist" term: if you get a lot of rebounds and a lot of assists, it'll boost your DBPM score a lot. This is why DBPM thinks Westbrook is such a good defender when he's blatantly not, and it's also a big reason LeBron's DBPM spikes to a ridiculous amount in the playoffs (he gets a (bleep) ton of assists, and he starts getting more uncontested rebounds so that he can start a one man break... obviously he plays better defense and gets more blocks & steals as well).
| Quote: |
In order, these are the defensive RPM for everyone on the team:
[truncated]
So RPM tells us that Ingram has been, by far, the worst defender on the team. Obviously this is extremely off base. Please explain this. I can't take this 'worst RPM in the league' talk anymore after looking at this least. There is no way in hell Ingram has been the worst defender on the Lakers! Ingram has the 7th worse DRPM in the entire NBA, out of 438 players. Horse pucky! |
Like I said, give it some time and I'll go over this in detail. There's some truth in the stat, but a lot of it is circumstantial.
Last edited by tox on Sun Jan 22, 2017 1:51 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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justsomelakerfan
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 1:49 pm Post subject: |
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| GoldenThroat wrote: | | Luke does him a disservice by putting him at PG with the Young/Deng/Randle/Mozgov lineup, IMO. |
Yeeeeeaah.
But Brandon didn't really play a lot of point guard, at least in the first quarter? I saw Julius bringing up the ball more, then Calderon was brought in pretty quickly after that Mozgov turnover. I started to tune out the 2nd quarter.
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tox
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 1:49 pm Post subject: |
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| GoldenThroat wrote: | | Luke does him a disservice by putting him at PG with the Young/Deng/Randle/Mozgov lineup, IMO. |
I was hoping for Clarkson/ Young/ Ingram/ Randle/ Mozgov myself. Let Deng off the bench for the purposes of fit. |
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greenfrog
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 1:50 pm Post subject: |
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| tox wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: | | Luke does him a disservice by putting him at PG with the Young/Deng/Randle/Mozgov lineup, IMO. |
I was hoping for Clarkson/ Young/ Ingram/ Randle/ Mozgov myself. Let Deng off the bench for the purposes of fit. |
I don't know what he's thinking asking him to be the sole creator out there. He protects that bench lineup like it's Fort Knox. |
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GoldenThroat
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 1:58 pm Post subject: |
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| Jakanzi wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: | | Luke does him a disservice by putting him at PG with the Young/Deng/Randle/Mozgov lineup, IMO. |
I don't necessarily mind the move. I think Luke had an idea of what to expect when he put Zubac out there to guard Jefferson the other night too. If they do well, great. If not, well then they have some useful film to show. Both have at least a sense of purpose in developing Ingram as a ball handler and Zubac as a post defender. |
I think there's always useful film to show, but I might be biased.  |
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Jakanzi
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 2:31 pm Post subject: |
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| tox wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: | | Luke does him a disservice by putting him at PG with the Young/Deng/Randle/Mozgov lineup, IMO. |
I was hoping for Clarkson/ Young/ Ingram/ Randle/ Mozgov myself. Let Deng off the bench for the purposes of fit. |
What's kinda weird is that it's pretty clear Ingram isn't really ready to run point full time but Luke throws him out there in that role for development purposes. But he won't do the same with Clarkson, who I don't think has gotten any minutes there all season. Wonder why that is. |
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Sina
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 2:38 pm Post subject: |
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| Our team are full of young players. They are still learning the NBA games. When asked to play out of their position or their teammates, it always has a big problem and our offense will be collapsed. It's just another game. So Luke prefer to insert Calderon for Russell only. Hi |
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greenfrog
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 2:46 pm Post subject: |
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| Jakanzi wrote: | | tox wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: | | Luke does him a disservice by putting him at PG with the Young/Deng/Randle/Mozgov lineup, IMO. |
I was hoping for Clarkson/ Young/ Ingram/ Randle/ Mozgov myself. Let Deng off the bench for the purposes of fit. |
What's kinda weird is that it's pretty clear Ingram isn't really ready to run point full time but Luke throws him out there in that role for development purposes. But he won't do the same with Clarkson, who I don't think has gotten any minutes there all season. Wonder why that is. |
The bench has been his crutch all season. Even if it's essentially a selfish brand of basketball that he abhors he's not messing with it. So you get a 12th man like Calderon starting or (today) a 19-year old who never even played the position in college. It's one of the most bizarre backasswards things I've ever seen in basketball.
Last edited by greenfrog on Sun Jan 22, 2017 2:47 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Andre2K
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 2:46 pm Post subject: |
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| Jakanzi wrote: | | tox wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: | | Luke does him a disservice by putting him at PG with the Young/Deng/Randle/Mozgov lineup, IMO. |
I was hoping for Clarkson/ Young/ Ingram/ Randle/ Mozgov myself. Let Deng off the bench for the purposes of fit. |
What's kinda weird is that it's pretty clear Ingram isn't really ready to run point full time but Luke throws him out there in that role for development purposes. But he won't do the same with Clarkson, who I don't think has gotten any minutes there all season. Wonder why that is. |
Honestly, I think Luke has made questionable decisions all season while benefitting from the invisibility cloak of being a better coach that Byron Scott. I wonder how long that will last.
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Dave20
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 2:48 pm Post subject: |
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| He was bad but I'm not going to blame any players for this game. There's a much bigger problem with this team. |
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Jakanzi
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 2:51 pm Post subject: |
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| Andre2K wrote: | | Jakanzi wrote: | | tox wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: | | Luke does him a disservice by putting him at PG with the Young/Deng/Randle/Mozgov lineup, IMO. |
I was hoping for Clarkson/ Young/ Ingram/ Randle/ Mozgov myself. Let Deng off the bench for the purposes of fit. |
What's kinda weird is that it's pretty clear Ingram isn't really ready to run point full time but Luke throws him out there in that role for development purposes. But he won't do the same with Clarkson, who I don't think has gotten any minutes there all season. Wonder why that is. |
Honestly, I think Luke has made questionable decisions all season while benefitting from the invisibility cloak of being a better coach that Byron Scott. I wonder how long that will last. |
I think he's been fine but one of the funnier things to me about all the Luke love is that he wasn't loved nearly this much as a player. Remember people hating his contract. |
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GoldenThroat
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 2:53 pm Post subject: |
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| justsomelakerfan wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: | | Luke does him a disservice by putting him at PG with the Young/Deng/Randle/Mozgov lineup, IMO. |
Yeeeeeaah.
But Brandon didn't really play a lot of point guard, at least in the first quarter? I saw Julius bringing up the ball more, then Calderon was brought in pretty quickly after that Mozgov turnover. I started to tune out the 2nd quarter. |
It's more of a matter of complimentary skill sets than who brings the ball up court. He's not capable of staying with PGs defensively, and he's not much of a shot creator himself. Randle's the only guy in that group that can create looks for others, and that's really only in transition. |
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anpherknee
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 3:08 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Zach Harper @talkhoops 21m21 minutes ago
Brandon Ingram was a -45 in 36 minutes against the Mavs today.
Zach Harper @talkhoops 3m3 minutes ago
Kevin Durant had a -35 game as a rookie so Brandon Ingram is already doing more. |
#silverlinings |
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Andre2K
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 3:09 pm Post subject: |
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| Jakanzi wrote: | | Andre2K wrote: | | Jakanzi wrote: | | tox wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: | | Luke does him a disservice by putting him at PG with the Young/Deng/Randle/Mozgov lineup, IMO. |
I was hoping for Clarkson/ Young/ Ingram/ Randle/ Mozgov myself. Let Deng off the bench for the purposes of fit. |
What's kinda weird is that it's pretty clear Ingram isn't really ready to run point full time but Luke throws him out there in that role for development purposes. But he won't do the same with Clarkson, who I don't think has gotten any minutes there all season. Wonder why that is. |
Honestly, I think Luke has made questionable decisions all season while benefitting from the invisibility cloak of being a better coach that Byron Scott. I wonder how long that will last. |
I think he's been fine but one of the funnier things to me about all the Luke love is that he wasn't loved nearly this much as a player. Remember people hating his contract. |
"Not loved nearly this much" is putting it nicely lol, laker fans were brutal. Some even nicknamed him puke But yeah sometimes he just needs to stick to conventional lineups instead of trying so hard to come up with mad scientist ones. He's overthinking it
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levon
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 3:10 pm Post subject: |
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| anpherknee wrote: | | Quote: | Zach Harper @talkhoops 21m21 minutes ago
Brandon Ingram was a -45 in 36 minutes against the Mavs today.
Zach Harper @talkhoops 3m3 minutes ago
Kevin Durant had a -35 game as a rookie so Brandon Ingram is already doing more. |
#silverlinings |
it's unhealthy to be so snide, Mr. Harper |
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tox
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| Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 3:12 pm Post subject: |
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| Andre2K wrote: | | Jakanzi wrote: | | Andre2K wrote: | | Jakanzi wrote: | | tox wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: | | Luke does him a disservice by putting him at PG with the Young/Deng/Randle/Mozgov lineup, IMO. |
I was hoping for Clarkson/ Young/ Ingram/ Randle/ Mozgov myself. Let Deng off the bench for the purposes of fit. |
What's kinda weird is that it's pretty clear Ingram isn't really ready to run point full time but Luke throws him out there in that role for development purposes. But he won't do the same with Clarkson, who I don't think has gotten any minutes there all season. Wonder why that is. |
Honestly, I think Luke has made questionable decisions all season while benefitting from the invisibility cloak of being a better coach that Byron Scott. I wonder how long that will last. |
I think he's been fine but one of the funnier things to me about all the Luke love is that he wasn't loved nearly this much as a player. Remember people hating his contract. |
"Not loved nearly this much" is putting it nicely lol, laker fans were brutal. Some even nicknamed him puke But yeah sometimes he just needs to stick to conventional lineups instead of trying so hard to come up with mad scientist ones. He's overthinking it |
The worst was that abomination of MWP in the starting lineup
It's fine. It's like people forget he's young too. He's done a great job focusing on the right kind of basketball and he's clearly teaching the young guys stuff, even if it isn't immediate yet.
His rotations need a lot of work, and I agree with greenfrog that he has been relying on his bench too much. Especially given they hardly run a structured offense. That's fine though... he's a rookie! |
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