OFFICIAL BRANDON INGRAM THREAD!!
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manlisten
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:05 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
manlisten wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
If I can put my extreme hater hat on for a moment...how much is the perception of Ingram's progress shaped by how many minutes he's getting? He's the 5th-leading scorer on the team Per-36, 404th out of 444 players in RPM, still below replacement level in BPM, and the Lakers are scoring 9 points per 100 possessions more when he's off of the court than when he's on...but he's playing 33.7mpg (no one played more than 29.2 last year), so he's now at 16ppg. He's become really good at driving to the basket - which is not insignificant - but has he really grown all that much outside of that? If he got last year's minutes (28.8) he'd be at 13.7ppg right now, scoring at the same rate.


Putting the same hat on, how much of this take is influenced by the fact that you didn't believe he had much potential as a scorer and are sticking to it until he undeniably proves that idea to be wrong?


How about he proves my POV of him as a scorer wrong first, rather than undeniably wrong?

The biggest difference, by far, is his minutes. I expected Ingram to be a 13-14ppg guy based on the types of minutes that guys got last year. At the rate he's scored this year, he'd be averaging 13.7ppg based on the minutes he got last year (28.8). Had you told me before the year that he'd be getting 33.7mpg, I'd have guessed he'd be in the 15-16ppg range.


Do you honestly believe that last year's Brandon given this year's minutes puts up the numbers and games he's been having so far? I don't.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:08 pm    Post subject:

manlisten wrote:
LakerSanity wrote:
manlisten wrote:
LakerSanity wrote:
manlisten wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
If I can put my extreme hater hat on for a moment...how much is the perception of Ingram's progress shaped by how many minutes he's getting? He's the 5th-leading scorer on the team Per-36, 404th out of 444 players in RPM, still below replacement level in BPM, and the Lakers are scoring 9 points per 100 possessions more when he's off of the court than when he's on...but he's playing 33.7mpg (no one played more than 29.2 last year), so he's now at 16ppg. He's become really good at driving to the basket - which is not insignificant - but has he really grown all that much outside of that? If he got last year's minutes (28.8) he'd be at 13.7ppg right now, scoring at the same rate.


Putting the same hat on, how much of this take is influenced by the fact that you didn't believe he had much potential as a scorer and are sticking to it until he undeniably proves that idea to be wrong?


That's uncalled for... and he's a mod by the way, so clearly you have forgotten the rules of this forum. Address the post, not the poster.


I addressed the idea. Never said anything personal.


Your entire post was about how HE didn't believe Ingram had potential and that he is somehow stubbornly sticking to it contrary to proof which undermines his perspective, as if he has some kind of agenda.

That's addressing HIM and HIS perceived biases or perceived agenda, not whether the idea of Ingram still having ways to improve are valid or not.

No, you did not address the post... you addressed the poster. I do hope you get that distinction now (and that everyone else reading this does as well).


It's interesting that there was a post directly above mine clearly addressing a poster's intelligence or lack of that went under the radar.


For some reason that poster gets a pass every single time despite spamming pretty much every thread with his nonsense.
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GoldenThroat
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:11 pm    Post subject:

manlisten wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
manlisten wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
If I can put my extreme hater hat on for a moment...how much is the perception of Ingram's progress shaped by how many minutes he's getting? He's the 5th-leading scorer on the team Per-36, 404th out of 444 players in RPM, still below replacement level in BPM, and the Lakers are scoring 9 points per 100 possessions more when he's off of the court than when he's on...but he's playing 33.7mpg (no one played more than 29.2 last year), so he's now at 16ppg. He's become really good at driving to the basket - which is not insignificant - but has he really grown all that much outside of that? If he got last year's minutes (28.8) he'd be at 13.7ppg right now, scoring at the same rate.


Putting the same hat on, how much of this take is influenced by the fact that you didn't believe he had much potential as a scorer and are sticking to it until he undeniably proves that idea to be wrong?


How about he proves my POV of him as a scorer wrong first, rather than undeniably wrong?

The biggest difference, by far, is his minutes. I expected Ingram to be a 13-14ppg guy based on the types of minutes that guys got last year. At the rate he's scored this year, he'd be averaging 13.7ppg based on the minutes he got last year (28.8). Had you told me before the year that he'd be getting 33.7mpg, I'd have guessed he'd be in the 15-16ppg range.


Do you honestly believe that last year's Brandon given this year's minutes puts up the numbers and games he's been having so far? I don't.


No, which is why he put up 9.4ppg in those minutes.
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manlisten
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:13 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
manlisten wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
manlisten wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
If I can put my extreme hater hat on for a moment...how much is the perception of Ingram's progress shaped by how many minutes he's getting? He's the 5th-leading scorer on the team Per-36, 404th out of 444 players in RPM, still below replacement level in BPM, and the Lakers are scoring 9 points per 100 possessions more when he's off of the court than when he's on...but he's playing 33.7mpg (no one played more than 29.2 last year), so he's now at 16ppg. He's become really good at driving to the basket - which is not insignificant - but has he really grown all that much outside of that? If he got last year's minutes (28.8) he'd be at 13.7ppg right now, scoring at the same rate.


Putting the same hat on, how much of this take is influenced by the fact that you didn't believe he had much potential as a scorer and are sticking to it until he undeniably proves that idea to be wrong?


How about he proves my POV of him as a scorer wrong first, rather than undeniably wrong?

The biggest difference, by far, is his minutes. I expected Ingram to be a 13-14ppg guy based on the types of minutes that guys got last year. At the rate he's scored this year, he'd be averaging 13.7ppg based on the minutes he got last year (28.8). Had you told me before the year that he'd be getting 33.7mpg, I'd have guessed he'd be in the 15-16ppg range.


Do you honestly believe that last year's Brandon given this year's minutes puts up the numbers and games he's been having so far? I don't.


No, which is why he put up 9.4ppg in those minutes.


Lol...sooo the perception of his progress is not just a result of his minutes then?
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:16 pm    Post subject:

manlisten wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
manlisten wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
manlisten wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
If I can put my extreme hater hat on for a moment...how much is the perception of Ingram's progress shaped by how many minutes he's getting? He's the 5th-leading scorer on the team Per-36, 404th out of 444 players in RPM, still below replacement level in BPM, and the Lakers are scoring 9 points per 100 possessions more when he's off of the court than when he's on...but he's playing 33.7mpg (no one played more than 29.2 last year), so he's now at 16ppg. He's become really good at driving to the basket - which is not insignificant - but has he really grown all that much outside of that? If he got last year's minutes (28.8) he'd be at 13.7ppg right now, scoring at the same rate.


Putting the same hat on, how much of this take is influenced by the fact that you didn't believe he had much potential as a scorer and are sticking to it until he undeniably proves that idea to be wrong?


How about he proves my POV of him as a scorer wrong first, rather than undeniably wrong?

The biggest difference, by far, is his minutes. I expected Ingram to be a 13-14ppg guy based on the types of minutes that guys got last year. At the rate he's scored this year, he'd be averaging 13.7ppg based on the minutes he got last year (28.8). Had you told me before the year that he'd be getting 33.7mpg, I'd have guessed he'd be in the 15-16ppg range.


Do you honestly believe that last year's Brandon given this year's minutes puts up the numbers and games he's been having so far? I don't.


No, which is why he put up 9.4ppg in those minutes.


Lol...sooo the perception of his progress is not just a result of his minutes then?


Have I argued that he hasn't progressed?

I'm sorry, let me try that again.

Lollll....sooooo didja read what I said?

(did I do the whole "being unnecessarily snarky" thing right?)
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manlisten
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:20 pm    Post subject:

Did I say that you argued that he hasn't progressed? You better take it down a notch before I get LakerSanity to read you the riot act
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governator
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:24 pm    Post subject:

oh boy
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:24 pm    Post subject:

Quote:

If I can put my extreme hater hat on for a moment...how much is the perception of Ingram's progress shaped by how many minutes he's getting? He's the 5th-leading scorer on the team Per-36, 404th out of 444 players in RPM, still below replacement level in BPM, and the Lakers are scoring 9 points per 100 possessions more when he's off of the court than when he's on...but he's playing 33.7mpg (no one played more than 29.2 last year), so he's now at 16ppg. He's become really good at driving to the basket - which is not insignificant - but has he really grown all that much outside of that? If he got last year's minutes (28.8) he'd be at 13.7ppg right now, scoring at the same rate


Oh, it's not shaped by the minutes. I just figure it's around 30.

But the end of last season into this season, reminds me of Ingram's in-season development at Duke. 4th/5th option guy, more catch and shoot. Became #2 guy (behind Grayson Allen) and more effective on his attacks to the basket, with far more frequency.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:25 pm    Post subject:

governator wrote:
oh boy



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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:33 pm    Post subject:

"If he got last year's minutes (28.8) he'd be at 13.7ppg right now, scoring at the same rate."

"If I can put my extreme hater hat on for a moment...how much is the perception of Ingram's progress shaped by how many minutes he's getting?"

"FWIW, the one-number metrics that I put value in have Lonzo having a better year than Ingram. BPM has Lonzo at -1.0, with Ingram at -2.2. RPM has Lonzo at -1.92, with Ingram at -2.57. Ingram's improved as a scorer, while Lonzo is a grease fire in that respect, but outside of that Lonzo outpaces Ingram in a lot of respects."

Again.. the argument falls apart because an increase in minutes won't improve free throw shooting.. Nor will it improve field goal percentages. Our perceptions of his improvement are based on those key factors.

Then to suggest that Ball is having a better year than Ingram?? I'd love to know how many here actually believes that.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:41 pm    Post subject:

Apart from shooting:

Player A: TRB% 11, AST% 29, STL% 1.9, BLK% 2.0, TOV% 19.3, VORP 0.2
Player B: TRB% 8.5, AST% 13, STL% 1.3, BLK% 1.9, TOV% 14.0, VORP 0.0
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 5:43 pm    Post subject:

epak wrote:
Apart from shooting:

Player A: TRB% 11, AST% 29, STL% 1.9, BLK% 2.0, TOV% 19.3, VORP 0.2
Player B: TRB% 8.5, AST% 13, STL% 1.3, BLK% 1.9, TOV% 14.0, VORP 0.0


I just patted myself on the back for guessing Player A correctly

That block percentage, which nearly threw me off, is crazy.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 5:55 pm    Post subject:

manlisten wrote:
Did I say that you argued that he hasn't progressed? You better take it down a notch before I get LakerSanity to read you the riot act


Posting here is a privilege, not a right. Hopefully you will realize that when you come back from your 3 day suspension.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:03 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
TheBlackMamba wrote:
Is it fair to say that he's improved significantly as an individual scorer from where he was at this point last year, but his lack of a jumpshot and tendency to ISO (without good shooters to kick out to on his drives) are what play into his negative offensive box score plus/minus metrics since both are detrimental to the team's offensive flow and efficiency? I don't think it's just his own shooting that holds back his impact, but the lack of shooting around him, which is obviously a team-wide issue. Put shooters around him and space the floor better, all of a sudden we're much better positioned to play off of his driving ability, which is really his one gift on offense and something that's worked well for him individually even without spacing.


Jeremias Engelmann (the guy who came up with RPM) addressed this the other day. He said that the two main factors in ORPM disliking Ingram are his poor A:TO ratio and the fact that the Lakers score 9 points per 100 possessions more when he's off of the court.


Those explanations amount to the same thing - a TO hurts your team probably more than just about anything you can do. Wastes an offensive possession for your team while giving the other team a statistically enhanced offensive possession. A double whammy.

Fortunately, turnovers also are an indication of youth and one of those things that tend to improve the most as one ages/gains more experience. Ingram has played more aggressively both as a scorer and a facility. He's exploring that role while also still trying to develop physically - those two factors explain a lot of turnovers. I don't see this problem being part of his long-term projection.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:11 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
epak wrote:
Per 36:

Year 1: 11.7 pts, 5 rebs, 2.6 asst, 40% fg, 29% 3pt, 62% ft
Year 2: 17.1 pts, 5.8 rebs, 3.1 asst, 46% fg, 30% 3pt, 68% ft

That's pretty good. The thing that I thought would push him over to the Magic Johnson expectation was an increase in ftr. He's at .405 (5.6 fta per 36) compared to .312 (3.4 fta per 36) last year.

Just as a barometer, James Harden has a ftr of .43 this year; has been over .500 the last 7 years. I think the league cracking down on BS foul calls at the 3 point line is dropping his attempts.


That's elite development. It's so rare that it gets that good from year 1 to year 2.



Agreed. I don't understand the argument that the perception of his progress is due to his increase in minutes. The fact that his FG%, FT% and FTR have increased by approx 15%, 10% and 60% respectively tell me that he is indeed improving at a great clip given his age, and that lines up with eye test. Last time I looked at his other counting stats, they were all up substantially as well- far more than his increase in minutes.


The Lakers getting outscored by 9 points per 100 when he's on the court would seem to be at least partially because he spends a lot of time with Lonzo, Nance and Lopez. That starting lineup is brutal and is going to hurt anyone's numbers who is a part of it.

Isn't RPM also influenced by the players on the court with him ? Ingram may still very well be a net negative player, but I think being in the starting lineup plays a large part in that. Not surprising that he's part of our best lineup with JR, Kuz, KCP and Zo.


I don't think there's any doubt that he's progressing, regardless of minutes.



Edit- thinking about it some more, I do think one thing that is shaping our perceptions about BI's progress is that the in area he has grown the most (driving), he is converting at an elite rate (second only to Lebron the last time I looked), and he's been doing it consistently against some of the best defensive bigs in the NBA. It's also a very noticeable part of any game, and it leaves a vivid impression. And when contrasted with last year, when he wasn't strong enough or skilled enough to attack successfully in the same way he is this year, it makes his progress feel very real and tangible.


Last edited by babyskyhook on Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:25 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:17 pm    Post subject:

dao wrote:
the growth rate Ingram had at the end of last season has carried over to this season. He keeps getting better and better.



His numbers in the last 9 games:

19.1 ppg
6.4 rebounds
3.7 assists
56.0 TS%

That's the best stretch of his young career. These are outstanding numbers for a player his age, and he has so much more room for growth.


He seems to have taken it to another level lately. Hopefully he makes another couple of jumps before the end of the year, as I'm still hoping that BI can make my prediction from last spring of him winning the MIP this year come true.

Either way, I'm very happy with the consistent progress he keeps showing. If you put his career averages on a chart, it would look like a staircase, as he hits a level for a period of time, then moves up another level and stays there for a bit, then does it again. Keep climbing those stairs young man.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:25 pm    Post subject:

babyskyhook wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
epak wrote:
Per 36:

Year 1: 11.7 pts, 5 rebs, 2.6 asst, 40% fg, 29% 3pt, 62% ft
Year 2: 17.1 pts, 5.8 rebs, 3.1 asst, 46% fg, 30% 3pt, 68% ft

That's pretty good. The thing that I thought would push him over to the Magic Johnson expectation was an increase in ftr. He's at .405 (5.6 fta per 36) compared to .312 (3.4 fta per 36) last year.

Just as a barometer, James Harden has a ftr of .43 this year; has been over .500 the last 7 years. I think the league cracking down on BS foul calls at the 3 point line is dropping his attempts.


That's elite development. It's so rare that it gets that good from year 1 to year 2.



Agreed. I don't understand the argument that the perception of his progress is due to his increase in minutes. The fact that his FG%, FT% and FTR have increased by approx 15%, 10% and 60% respectively tell me that he is indeed improving at a great clip given his age, and that lines up with eye test. Last time I looked at his other counting stats, they were all up substantially as well- far more than his increase in minutes.


The Lakers getting outscored by 9 points per 100 when he's on the court would seem to be at least partially because he spends a lot of time with Lonzo, Nance and Lopez. That starting lineup is brutal and is going to hurt anyone's numbers who is a part of it.

Isn't RPM also influenced by the players on the court with him ? Ingram may still very well be a net negative player, but I think being in the starting lineup plays a large part in that. Not surprising that he's part of our best lineup with JR, Kuz, KCP and Zo.


I don't think there's any doubt that he's progressing, regardless of minutes.



I should have added this in the initial post:

year1: usg%: 16.8, fga per36: 10.8
year2: usg%: 21.8, fga per36: 13.8
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:44 pm    Post subject:

Look man... you can't disrespect a person who makes an argument based on analysis... which is how GT approaches things. You may disagree with his conclusion, which is fine. But to say that the data is wrong is just silly. The data is the data. What you interpolate from it is another thing.

As far as BI... he's fascinating because he instinctively wants to play within the flow of a team. But he does that to such an extreme extent where he doesn't exert his will on the game enough. In order to combat that, he's taken it to another extreme where he literally attacks in ISO now... and he's freakin effective at it. The result however, is that while his individual stats have gone through the roof, he's not impacting his team's effectiveness like say Kobe could. He never will. You would need to become a dominant 1v1 player to be able to do that.

So the next stage of evolution for him is to marry that individualism he's developed with the team concept so that is maximizes its impact on the team... and then you'll see all the analytics suddenly look very impressive.

I can't remember a young kid that went from one extreme to another like BI has lol.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:37 pm    Post subject:

silkwilkes wrote:
Look man... you can't disrespect a person who makes an argument based on analysis... which is how GT approaches things. You may disagree with his conclusion, which is fine. But to say that the data is wrong is just silly. The data is the data. What you interpolate from it is another thing.

As far as BI... he's fascinating because he instinctively wants to play within the flow of a team. But he does that to such an extreme extent where he doesn't exert his will on the game enough. In order to combat that, he's taken it to another extreme where he literally attacks in ISO now... and he's freakin effective at it. The result however, is that while his individual stats have gone through the roof, he's not impacting his team's effectiveness like say Kobe could. He never will. You would need to become a dominant 1v1 player to be able to do that.

So the next stage of evolution for him is to marry that individualism he's developed with the team concept so that is maximizes its impact on the team... and then you'll see all the analytics suddenly look very impressive.

I can't remember a young kid that went from one extreme to another like BI has lol.


Agreed on all of this.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:43 pm    Post subject:

I wouldn't blame Ingram for his perceived occasional lack of tenacity offensively. I've seen the same thing with Kuz, where he's now passing up opportunities to create and score because Luke might be in their heads a little bit.

Ball move, and look for teammates is what he preaches. I think they're trying to find balance. Of the two I'm more comfortable with Kuz taking a higher volume and being a bit more selfish. I actually like where Ingram is right now with just letting the game come to him. As his ability increases so will his assertiveness.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:09 pm    Post subject:

he is a 25 pts, 10 rbs, 5 as player. Give him some time, desing and
execute 3 offensive systems around him and he ll deliver, this is
your cornerstone player, once he establishes a 3 pt consistently, everything else including max players will come.
After all, you know what? Indiana did manage to turn this bs thing with pg
in its favour, its unacceptable to sabotage your own players lonzo, BI, Kuzma
like we do.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:18 pm    Post subject:

epak wrote:
The Juggernaut wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
defense wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
epak wrote:
I wouldn't have guessed at the start of the season that we'd have 4 guys: KCP, BI, Lonzo and Kuzma all averaging over 30 mpg.

2 rookies and a 1 year player at 30+ mpg.
That's insane. Rare to find a team with that recipe w/o a superstar going to the playoffs. But I still believe! hahah.


Yeah, it's quite a shift for Luke. JC led the team last year with 29.2mpg, and that'd be 5th most on the team this year.


Not sure where to go with this question so I'll just ask here. Quite a few people on LG believe the Lakers are a better team if Randle and Kuzma start next the Lonzo/KCP/Ingram. You mind giving me your opinion on this projected line up? I'm trying to figure out if I'm missing something because I think that line up wouldn't make us any better, maybe even worse.

Also can you give us your preferred starting line up?


I think that's our best lineup, and the numbers reflect that. That particular grouping has gotten the 4th most minutes of any 5-man unit. And I think you of all people would appreciate a particular stat category here.

https://i.imgur.com/Xa7FOzj.png

I think it alleviates some of the playmaking burden off of Lonzo, and allows the first unit to effectively switch everything, at least in most cases.


Ball/KCP/BI/JR/Kuz lineup is our best lineup by far. I don't know why Luke won't give them more burn let alone start them.



Seriously. Just start them, so we can know if that lineup is for real or not. I want to see if Jules can handle the workload at his high impact rate.


👍 And GT giving the stat approval to our eyeball test sealed the deal for me.

I think it was last week I was lamenting bad times ahead with Luke forcing what he wishes to be the starting lineup versus what should be (and unfortunately so far I've been right). Eyeball test also tells me a lineup with kuz gives BI more operating room to dissect a defense on his drives, and with randle on d allows better switching (caveat: randle v embiid not good)
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DrDent
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:20 pm    Post subject:

Omar Little wrote:
silkwilkes wrote:
Look man... you can't disrespect a person who makes an argument based on analysis... which is how GT approaches things. You may disagree with his conclusion, which is fine. But to say that the data is wrong is just silly. The data is the data. What you interpolate from it is another thing.

As far as BI... he's fascinating because he instinctively wants to play within the flow of a team. But he does that to such an extreme extent where he doesn't exert his will on the game enough. In order to combat that, he's taken it to another extreme where he literally attacks in ISO now... and he's freakin effective at it. The result however, is that while his individual stats have gone through the roof, he's not impacting his team's effectiveness like say Kobe could. He never will. You would need to become a dominant 1v1 player to be able to do that.

So the next stage of evolution for him is to marry that individualism he's developed with the team concept so that is maximizes its impact on the team... and then you'll see all the analytics suddenly look very impressive.

I can't remember a young kid that went from one extreme to another like BI has lol.


Agreed on all of this.


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MJST
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:48 am    Post subject:

Brandon Ingram vs Andrew Wiggins Comparison Stats this year

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=cwaep
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:28 am    Post subject:

babyskyhook wrote:
dao wrote:
the growth rate Ingram had at the end of last season has carried over to this season. He keeps getting better and better.



His numbers in the last 9 games:

19.1 ppg
6.4 rebounds
3.7 assists
56.0 TS%

That's the best stretch of his young career. These are outstanding numbers for a player his age, and he has so much more room for growth.


He seems to have taken it to another level lately. Hopefully he makes another couple of jumps before the end of the year, as I'm still hoping that BI can make my prediction from last spring of him winning the MIP this year come true.

Either way, I'm very happy with the consistent progress he keeps showing. If you put his career averages on a chart, it would look like a staircase, as he hits a level for a period of time, then moves up another level and stays there for a bit, then does it again. Keep climbing those stairs young man.
I would love to see a graph like that for Ingram, starting post all star break last year. Last year, his skeptics said that his vast improvements in the second half of the season were due to 1) him starting at such a low level and 2) decreased level of competition toward the end of the year as tanking teams hit the final tank stretch and as good teams rested starters, etc.


Well, the growth chart has continued into this season. He's on a 9 game stretch where he's putting up 19.1 ppg, on good shooting efficiency, while playing solid defense. For a 20 year old wing, that's fantastic. Point blank period.
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