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Scoffs
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 Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 6:02 pm Post subject: |
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Paul George's Rookie Season (20 yrs old)
Minutes Played (20.7); FG% (0.453); 3Pt% (0.297); FT% (0.762); TRB(3.7); AST (1.1); STL (1.0); BLK (0.4); PTs (7.8)
Ingram's Stats:
Minutes Played (28.0); FG% (0.375); 3Pt% (0.306); FT% (0.672); TRB(4.1); AST (2.1); STL (0.5); BLK (0.4); PTs (8.4)
Brandon still has 30 plus games to improve that FG%, but he's a better playmaker than a rookie Paul George. I think he's going to be much better than the current Paul George in 3 seasons. |
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dao
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 6:16 pm Post subject: |
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| GoldenThroat wrote: | | dao wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: |
That's an oxymoron. You want objective?
Rookie Year BPM = -1.8 (Ingram = -3.8)
Rookie Year RPM = -3.66 (Ingram = -5.44)
Rookie Year VORP = +0.1 (Ingram = -0.6)
Rookie Year TPA Per Game = -1.07 (Ingram = -2.18)
Yet a staggering difference in how they're treated. Cuz it ain't objective at all. |
Cumulative stats have to be taken with a grain of salt here, because Ingram right now isn't remotely the same player that he was at the start of the season. Not only are his stats better, but he's doing things on the court that he wasn't doing earlier this year. He's attacking the basket effectively, while earlier this year he couldn't attack at all.
Bottom line is that Ingram jumps out as a big time prospect on both sides of the court. You have been criticizing his defense in this thread, which is interesting to say the least. He's a rookie, so consistency is going to be an issue, but he projects as a future elite defender based on the flashes he has shown. You yourself have said that countless times earlier this year. Qnd kikanga posted these stats regarding his defense:
| kikanga wrote: |
First, Defense. Look at this chart for opponent field goal % for this year. http://tinyurl.com/z7fenuc
10-20 feet from the hoop. Ingram is our best defender in terms of opponent FG%. 5-10 feet he's our best defender out of all the young guys. Lou and Black are very close as well in terms of %s from 10-20 feet. But they aren't defending as many shot attempts as Ingram. He can guard 2 players in 1 possession with his length and instincts.
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I think it goes without saying that Ingram projects as a superb defensive player going forward. Now, this month the offense has finally come around. He's playing the point, has a nearly 2.5:1 assist to turnover ratio for the month. The eye test confirms that he's an extremely intelligent player with the ball that rarely makes dumb mistakes. And finally, the scoring efficiency has come around as well. 46.2 fg%, 43.8 3pt% for the month.
Ingram right now is flashing wads and wads of potential. He matched up with Paul George last night, and it doesn't take much imagination to look at that game and envision Ingram being that class of player in the not too distant future. He had a similar game earlier this year matched up against Jimmy Butler. Ingram has shown small glimpses of that potential multiple times throughout the year, which in my opinion is partly why he hasn't gotten as much heat as Russell has gotten despite the poor stats to start the season.
Russell is a fine prospect that projects as one of the top NBA guards going forward. He gets a lot of hate from a vocal minority on this board that wanted Okafor on draft night. It's interesting to see you go out of your way to demean Ingram in response to this however, since I think most would objectively come to the conclusion that he is easily our best prospect going forward, given his recent offensive play combined with the defensive upside he's shown all along. |
I totally agree that Ingram projects to be an elite defender. What I said is that (yesterday aside) he hasn't been playing well on the defensive end recently. Players have ups & downs on that end of the court just as they do on offense, and he's had a fairly bad stretch on that end. There's a difference between playing bad defense and projecting to be a bad defender in the long run.
Cumulative stats are absolutely more worthwhile than a 3 week sample size. If you choose to view him solely through the lens of the most positive stretch of the entire season, that's your prerogative. But progress is rarely linear, and I think it's fairly likely that he'll take a step back in the relatively near future, before taking two steps forward again.
The notion that I go out of my way to "demean" Ingram really highlights the spectacular difference in how differently these two players are treated. I reference certain numbers...which I do for everyone...contextualize them by age and position...which I do for everyone...and make my observations from watching a ton of game footage, giving short term vs. long term caveats and qualifiers along the way. The fact that that's what qualifies as "going out of my way to demean him" is staggering. All I've asked is that other guys get the same treatment that he does, but again, I know that's never gonna happen. |
Russell got plenty of praise last year, people here we're comparing him to Curry. He has a vocal minority of haters, that I agree with. But plenty of people were very high on him.
The ice in my veins game is a snapshot of his potential upside. He can get his shot off whenever he wants it, the pull up from 30 gene...he's got it. My only concern though is that his shooting efficiency hasn't improved at all from year 1 to 2. Coupled to his below average free throw shooting, I wonder what his shooting upside is. If he can become a truly elite shooter, and play 'locked in' high IQ D, he will probably be a top 10 player one day. But this year he hasn't taken as big of a step forward as I expected. He still has time obviously. |
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augus7
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 6:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Scoffs wrote: | Paul George's Rookie Season (20 yrs old)
Minutes Played (20.7); FG% (0.453); 3Pt% (0.297); FT% (0.762); TRB(3.7); AST (1.1); STL (1.0); BLK (0.4); PTs (7.8)
Ingram's Stats:
Minutes Played (28.0); FG% (0.375); 3Pt% (0.306); FT% (0.672); TRB(4.1); AST (2.1); STL (0.5); BLK (0.4); PTs (8.4)
Brandon still has 30 plus games to improve that FG%, but he's a better playmaker than a rookie Paul George. I think he's going to be much better than the current Paul George in 3 seasons. |
It's tough to guess how different he'll be in a few years athletically but I'm aiming high and hoping he can become the second coming of Pippen.  |
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jonnybravo
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 6:23 pm Post subject: |
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| tox wrote: | | jonnybravo wrote: | | I think some of the comparisons to Durant (including from myself) were wildly off base but man, if he turns into a reasonable facsimile of Giannis. |
I don't think he really reminds me of Giannis either. Way less explosive, doesn't get to the rim nearly as much. Better jump shot though. Better playmaking by age? Not sure since Giannis had a higher assist percentage, but better halfcourt shotmaking IMO.
I think he'll be a blend of all these really good 2-way players, but these kinds of comparisons are pretty limiting. |
No doubt, but it's fun.
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GoldenThroat
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 6:38 pm Post subject: |
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I don't think there's a great 1-to-1 comparison for Ingram, personally.
I think you have to start with his ball handling, which separates him from a good deal of wing prospects with his build. Guys like PG13 & Giannis fit the bill, but they're in a different class athletically, IMO. And Ingram projects to be a much better shooter than Giannis.
The one guy who was his frame, a similar caliber athlete, could handle the ball, and could shoot a bit that comes to mind is Tayshaun Prince, but that's significantly underselling Ingram's potential. (although I think we forget that Prince was pretty good) I would buy "Rich Man's Tayshaun Prince" in that they're stylistically similar, but I think Ingram's gonna be a much better player.
IDK, there isn't a comp that I really love, and I don't think it matters. I don't know why we're so obsessed with doing that. (myself included) |
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parsons777
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GoldenThroat
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 7:27 pm Post subject: |
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His points per minute ranks 47th amongst rookies. |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 7:33 pm Post subject: |
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His 3% is above 30%!
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From 2-10 to the Western Conference Finals |
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TheBlackMamba
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 7:58 pm Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | His 3% is above 30%! |
Now to get his overall FG% above 40%...
and it wouldn't hurt to get that damn FT% over 70%, at least. |
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parsons777
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 8:40 pm Post subject: |
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| GoldenThroat wrote: |
His points per minute ranks 47th amongst rookies. |
GT, I am more interested in his PPS trendline:
Month Min Pts FGA PPS
Nov 27 8 7.5 1.07
Dec 30 7 8.0 0.88
Jan 30 11.5 8.3 1.39
Just because his teammates take/took more shots should not impact the fact that he has become a very efficient scorer over 11 games in Jan.
And some comps for context:
JR
Month Min Pts FGA PPS
Nov 27 13 10 1.30
Dec 30 13.6 11.3 1.20
Jan 30 13 10.5 1.24
DLo
Month Min Pts FGA PPS
Nov 26 16 12.9 1.24
Dec 26 12.6 12.3 1.02
Jan 26 13.8 12.3 1.12
^these are, of course, their soph numbers.
Last edited by parsons777 on Sat Jan 21, 2017 8:49 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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dood23
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 8:47 pm Post subject: |
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IT'S
TIME
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"There's only 2 dudes better than me, and I'm BOTH OF THEM." |
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ch3cky0selff00
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 8:52 pm Post subject: |
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He had such a slow start to the season that of course it's not going to look favorable.
The month of January he's been pretty good.
12 PPG, 4 RPG, 3 APG on 46% FG and 43% 3PM
Dario Saric:
10 PPG, 6 RPG, 2 APG on 35% FG and 36% 3PM
Buddy Hield:
10 PPG, 4 RPG, 2 APG on 39% FG and 43% 3PM
Jaylen Brown:
5 PPG, 3 RPG, 1 APG on 42% FG and 25% 3PM
Jamal Murray:
6 PPG, 2 RPG, 1 APG on 33% FG and 19% 3PM
Kris Dunn:
3 PPG, 2 RPG, 2 APG on 38% FG and 17% 3PM |
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AY2043
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 8:55 pm Post subject: |
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| ch3cky0selff00 wrote: | He had such a slow start to the season that of course it's not going to look favorable.
The month of January he's been pretty good.
12 PPG, 4 RPG, 3 APG on 46% FG and 43% 3PM
Dario Saric:
10 PPG, 6 RPG, 2 APG on 35% FG and 36% 3PM
Buddy Hield:
10 PPG, 4 RPG, 2 APG on 39% FG and 43% 3PM
Jaylen Brown:
5 PPG, 3 RPG, 1 APG on 42% FG and 25% 3PM
Jamal Murray:
6 PPG, 2 RPG, 1 APG on 33% FG and 19% 3PM
Kris Dunn:
3 PPG, 2 RPG, 2 APG on 38% FG and 17% 3PM |
Man, the 2016 class is really off to a slow start. Simmons still yet to play tho.
Hopefully Brandon keeps up this level of production for the rest of the year. He can make a big jump next year and an even bigger jump in year 3. |
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Batguano
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ch3cky0selff00
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:17 pm Post subject: |
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For comparisons sake regarding the rest of the team.. and this is just the month of January.
Julius Randle:
13 PPG, 9 RPG, 5 APG on 43% FG and 50% 3PM
D'Angelo Russell:
14 PPG, 5 RPG, 4 APG on 41% FG and 30% 3PM
Jordan Clarkson:
13 PPG, 3 RPG, 2 APG on 49% FG and 37% 3PM |
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augus7
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:17 pm Post subject: |
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| AY2043 wrote: | | ch3cky0selff00 wrote: | He had such a slow start to the season that of course it's not going to look favorable.
The month of January he's been pretty good.
12 PPG, 4 RPG, 3 APG on 46% FG and 43% 3PM
Dario Saric:
10 PPG, 6 RPG, 2 APG on 35% FG and 36% 3PM
Buddy Hield:
10 PPG, 4 RPG, 2 APG on 39% FG and 43% 3PM
Jaylen Brown:
5 PPG, 3 RPG, 1 APG on 42% FG and 25% 3PM
Jamal Murray:
6 PPG, 2 RPG, 1 APG on 33% FG and 19% 3PM
Kris Dunn:
3 PPG, 2 RPG, 2 APG on 38% FG and 17% 3PM |
Man, the 2016 class is really off to a slow start. Simmons still yet to play tho.
Hopefully Brandon keeps up this level of production for the rest of the year. He can make a big jump next year and an even bigger jump in year 3. |
Wow, a horrible season so far from Ingram's draft class. 
It's comparable to the 2000s draft class (one of the worst of all time)
In comparison, here are the rookie season of the top picks of that class.
Kenyon Martin:
12 PPG, 7 RPG, 1 APG on 44% FG, 33MPG
Stromile Swift:
5 PPG, 4 RPG, 0.4 APG on 45% FG, 16MPG
Darius Miles:
9 PPG, 6 RPG, 1 APG on 50% FG, 26MPG
Marcus Fizer:
9 PPG, 4 RPG, 1 APG on 43% FG, 22MPG
Mike Miller:
12 PPG, 4 RPG, 1.7 APG on 43% FG, 29MPG
DerMarr Johnson:
5 PPG, 2 RPG, 1 APG on 37% FG, 17MPG
Chris Mihm:
7 PPG, 4 RPG, 0 APG on 44% FG, 19MPG
Jamal Crawford:
4 PPG, 1 RPG, 2 APG on 35% FG, 17MPG |
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parsons777
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:33 pm Post subject: |
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| ch3cky0selff00 wrote: | For comparisons sake regarding the rest of the team.. and this is just the month of January.
Julius Randle:
13 PPG, 9 RPG, 5 APG on 43% FG and 50% 3PM
D'Angelo Russell:
14 PPG, 5 RPG, 4 APG on 41% FG and 30% 3PM
Jordan Clarkson:
13 PPG, 3 RPG, 2 APG on 49% FG and 37% 3PM |
I would point out though that JR is 1 out of 2 from 3 for Jan. JR is a turrible 3 pt shooter. Across 100 NBA games he is a woeful 15/58, 26%. This was one of the major knocks on him coming out of college - no range, along with being a tweener, not fast enough to be an SF or big enough to be a PF. |
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GoldenThroat
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:00 pm Post subject: |
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| parsons777 wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: |
His points per minute ranks 47th amongst rookies. |
GT, I am more interested in his PPS trendline:
Month Min Pts FGA PPS
Nov 27 8 7.5 1.07
Dec 30 7 8.0 0.88
Jan 30 11.5 8.3 1.39
Just because his teammates take/took more shots should not impact the fact that he has become a very efficient scorer over 11 games in Jan.
And some comps for context:
JR
Month Min Pts FGA PPS
Nov 27 13 10 1.30
Dec 30 13.6 11.3 1.20
Jan 30 13 10.5 1.24
DLo
Month Min Pts FGA PPS
Nov 26 16 12.9 1.24
Dec 26 12.6 12.3 1.02
Jan 26 13.8 12.3 1.12
^these are, of course, their soph numbers. |
I agree with you on trendlines, although not on PPS, which I think it's a pretty poor stat. Although Ingram's certainly trending in the right direction no matter how you slice it. There's also a correlation between usage & efficiency. |
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tox
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Joined: 16 Nov 2015
Posts: 17880
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:52 pm Post subject: |
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| AY2043 wrote: | | ch3cky0selff00 wrote: | He had such a slow start to the season that of course it's not going to look favorable.
The month of January he's been pretty good.
12 PPG, 4 RPG, 3 APG on 46% FG and 43% 3PM
Dario Saric:
10 PPG, 6 RPG, 2 APG on 35% FG and 36% 3PM
Buddy Hield:
10 PPG, 4 RPG, 2 APG on 39% FG and 43% 3PM
Jaylen Brown:
5 PPG, 3 RPG, 1 APG on 42% FG and 25% 3PM
Jamal Murray:
6 PPG, 2 RPG, 1 APG on 33% FG and 19% 3PM
Kris Dunn:
3 PPG, 2 RPG, 2 APG on 38% FG and 17% 3PM |
Man, the 2016 class is really off to a slow start. Simmons still yet to play tho.
Hopefully Brandon keeps up this level of production for the rest of the year. He can make a big jump next year and an even bigger jump in year 3. |
I imagine his percentages will drop a little bit, but as long as his TS% stays above 54% or so and his assist-to-turnover ratio above 2.0 or so, I'd say that's a very successful rookie year. Especially given where he began. |
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mj32
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 11:11 pm Post subject: |
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| Advanced metric guys are smarter than everyone else. Please don't argue with them. |
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 11:14 pm Post subject: |
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| mj32 wrote: | | Advanced metric guys are smarter than everyone else. Please don't argue with them. |
That's a crap argument. Do better. |
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mj32
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 11:38 pm Post subject: |
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| Omar Little wrote: | | mj32 wrote: | | Advanced metric guys are smarter than everyone else. Please don't argue with them. |
That's a crap argument. Do better. |
Ok, it's simple. I've coached AAU and High school in centinela valley off and on for a long time. I know many people that are in the business and 90% of them think BI is the best prospect on the Lakers regardless of what stat geeks think. If you've played or watched ball for some time, you don't need to Look at "advanced metrics" to know who has value and has the potential to be a great player.
Maybe I'm too old and out of touch, I don't know, but when I see stats that indicate BI is the worst player in the league, I just shake my head and laugh. If only he just played 10 minutes a game...
Based on my experience BI and DLO are both fantastic prospects. I hope they both succeed. It's not rocket science folks |
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GoldenThroat
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Joined: 25 Jul 2005
Posts: 37474
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 11:43 pm Post subject: |
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| mj32 wrote: | | Omar Little wrote: | | mj32 wrote: | | Advanced metric guys are smarter than everyone else. Please don't argue with them. |
That's a crap argument. Do better. |
Ok, it's simple. I've coached AAU and High school in centinela valley off and on for a long time. I know many people that are in the business and 90% of them think BI is the best prospect on the Lakers regardless of what stat geeks think. If you've played or watched ball for some time, you don't need to Look at "advanced metrics" to know who has value and has the potential to be a great player.
Maybe I'm too old and out of touch, I don't know, but when I see stats that indicate BI is the worst player in the league, I just shake my head and laugh. If only he just played 10 minutes a game...
Based on my experience BI and DLO are both fantastic prospects. I hope they both succeed. It's not rocket science folks |
Then why do NBA people do exactly that? |
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mrand
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Location: Germany
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 11:53 pm Post subject: |
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The majority of Ingram's minutes came with JC and Lou on the floor. I guess even a guy like Kobe would have trouble scoring the ball next to these guys
I love Ingram. I feel like he already showed us that there's not gonna be a hole in his game once he gets fully confortable in the nba. He not only got all the tools, but the right mindset, bball iq etc as well. Sky's the limit! |
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tox
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Joined: 16 Nov 2015
Posts: 17880
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 11:56 pm Post subject: |
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| mj32 wrote: | | Omar Little wrote: | | mj32 wrote: | | Advanced metric guys are smarter than everyone else. Please don't argue with them. |
That's a crap argument. Do better. |
Ok, it's simple. I've coached AAU and High school in centinela valley off and on for a long time. I know many people that are in the business and 90% of them think BI is the best prospect on the Lakers regardless of what stat geeks think. If you've played or watched ball for some time, you don't need to Look at "advanced metrics" to know who has value and has the potential to be a great player.
Maybe I'm too old and out of touch, I don't know, but when I see stats that indicate BI is the worst player in the league, I just shake my head and laugh. If only he just played 10 minutes a game...
Based on my experience BI and DLO are both fantastic prospects. I hope they both succeed. It's not rocket science folks |
Or -- and here's a radical idea -- both are useful? Basketball is not baseball, and anyone who tells you stats are the objective truth is selling you snake oil. OTOH, several "eye test experts" were convinced that Jahlil Okafor was a great player last year, whereas many advanced stats (like RPM) said he was the worst. I think most would agree more with RPM, with the benefit of hindsight. Especially now that we can see what a real star center is doing with that team.
I honestly don't understand how you are confused that stats said BI was the worst player in the league. The dude couldn't drop a pea in the ocean, he didn't create offense for teammates, and he didn't even provide spacing for his teammates. It's not like he was notable for doing dirty work on the boards or setting screens. And on defense, he blew assignments and got backdoored regularly (which is fine, he's a rookie), and frankly he gets abused by bigger players (players score 1.08 ppp isolating against Ingram, because they get to the paint so easily). It was pretty clear where his shortcomings were, in my opinion.
Now let me make this clear: I unequivocally do not think that is an indicator of his future potential. He was "the worst player in the league" not because he's a talentless scrub but because he was adjusting to the NBA (without his jump shot) and Luke kind of put him in trial by fire by giving him more point guard duties in December with Russell injured when he can't handle that much offensive playmaking burden yet.
But at the end of the day, he was not producing at all and basically every lineup was better with Deng (who himself is having a subpar season) in than with Ingram in. Why wouldn't you think he was among the worst players in the league in terms of on-court impact... even if that has little bearing on how good you think he'll be down the line?
Last edited by tox on Sat Jan 21, 2017 11:57 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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