| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
justsomelakerfan
Franchise Player
Joined: 16 Jul 2016
Posts: 10939
|
 Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 7:37 pm Post subject: |
|
|
watch out DLO, there's a new per 36 god in town
_________________
Austin Reaves
Tweeter: @sarah_dotbiz |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
tox
Franchise Player
Joined: 16 Nov 2015
Posts: 17876
|
| Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:45 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | tox wrote: | | justsomelakerfan wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | DocK36 wrote: | | Hey guys, last time we drafted a young, likeable Center from Eastern Europe was this kid named Vlade Divac. How do you guys think Zubac compares to Vlade? I think Zubac will be a better scorer, but probably not as good of a passer. Zubac already looks like he‘ll be a better FT shooter and with time may be a better jump shooter with more range. Mobility wise I think Vlade might be a little quicker in his prime? |
That was my thought on draft night. If he ends up as good as Vlade we got a steal. Love this kid. |
Here's their rookie numbers compared on bball ref. [LINK]. In admittedly less minutes, 19 year old Zubac compares pretty well to 20-21 year old Divac. except for defense. But even then their block numbers are similar. |
I find it weird how much OBPM hates Zub. I should look into why that is, lol. |
It's so odd to see him with a 17.3 PER and a -3.2 OBPM (-2.8 BPM). If you find any answers behind this statistical travesty, please let us know.
Also, if Zu can maintain his current productivity per minute, his 16/10/2 per36 averages would put him in a pretty good group of rookie big men. When adjusting for age regardless of experience, he's in a very small, elite-ish group with Shaq, Anthony Davis, Chris Webber, Shawn Kemp, 2nd year Andrew Bynum, and...Anthony Randolph (?). Of course, Zu has only played about 300 minutes...
BRef
Flat out, teenagers drafted in the 2nd round who spend half the season in the D-League shouldn't be this good this fast. |
Actually, PER and OBPM probably don't correlate all that well with big men. Off the top of my head, Okafor was also ~17 PER but he was like -4 OBPM.
But that doesn't explain Vlade, who has very similar stats, yet has a decent -1.0 (for a center that's not bad). Zub's at an Okaforian -3.2
Key points of differentiation? Vlade got more minutes, steals (remember, a steal means transition so better offense as well), and offensive rebounds. He also gets a boost from playing on the #1 offensive team in the league (the 2017 Lakers are the #22 so Zub's stats like everyone else on the team are depreciated a certain amount).
Those mostly explain the results. Surprisingly, I find this a satisfying answer. Minutes is kind of weird (I think the argument is that the more min you play, the more likely you aren't just playing garbage time min / min against bench scrubs) but otherwise it makes sense. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Baron Von Humongous
Retired Number
Joined: 02 Jul 2015
Posts: 32979
|
| Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 8:15 am Post subject: |
|
|
^Thanks for the thorough explanation. Hopefully it normalizes a bit as he gets more minutes through the end of the season even without a bump in his STL% or ORB%.
It would be awesome if he could get up to the +1-2 OBPM range during his prime, which would put him in Brook Lopez, Al Horford territory. Of course, Nikola Jokic is posting a 6.9 OBPM at age 21, which if it lasted, would be the greatest mark ever posted by a center in modern NBA history. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Fastbreak32
Star Player
Joined: 11 Oct 2011
Posts: 4746
|
| Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 8:37 am Post subject: |
|
|
| pjiddy wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | DocK36 wrote: | | Hey guys, last time we drafted a young, likeable Center from Eastern Europe was this kid named Vlade Divac. How do you guys think Zubac compares to Vlade? I think Zubac will be a better scorer, but probably not as good of a passer. Zubac already looks like he‘ll be a better FT shooter and with time may be a better jump shooter with more range. Mobility wise I think Vlade might be a little quicker in his prime? |
That was my thought on draft night. If he ends up as good as Vlade we got a steal. Love this kid. |
His assist rate (6.5%) is about where Vlade was his rookie year (6.7). Keep in mind Vlade was 21. |
Good point. Zu is really young. Both our rookies look like they're 19 going on 16.
_________________
LeBron, AD, & _________. Stay tuned.
"...there was a time when the Israelites were wandering in the desert and all of a sudden, bread came down from heaven,” Pelinka said. “That’s kind of what today feels like for us to have KCP join.” |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
tox
Franchise Player
Joined: 16 Nov 2015
Posts: 17876
|
| Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:37 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Baron Von Humongous wrote: | ^Thanks for the thorough explanation. Hopefully it normalizes a bit as he gets more minutes through the end of the season even without a bump in his STL% or ORB%.
It would be awesome if he could get up to the +1-2 OBPM range during his prime, which would put him in Brook Lopez, Al Horford territory. Of course, Nikola Jokic is posting a 6.9 OBPM at age 21, which if it lasted, would be the greatest mark ever posted by a center in modern NBA history. |
Yeah Jokic puts up stats like a modern guard (high efficiency, tons of assists, shoots 3s) and he's a good rebounder to boot. Pair that up with how good the Nuggets offense is with him playing and it's not a surprise.
But yeah I don't exactly use BPM as a gauge of how effective Zub is. But if he starts shooting and making 3s, that number will rise up pretty quickly. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
bonkers
Star Player
Joined: 25 Apr 2013
Posts: 6071
|
| Posted: Wed Feb 15, 2017 4:26 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Alex Abrines replaces Embiid in the Rising Stars (BOO!), Jokic to replace him in the Skills challenge.
EDIT: DOUBLE BOO (Willy Hernangomez to replace Mudiay in the Rising Stars)
I guess they felt like they needed another guard to replace Mudiay in Abrines, but Zubac can make TREYS TOO FAM [AT] ! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
parsons777
Star Player
Joined: 08 Jul 2005
Posts: 3574
|
| Posted: Wed Feb 15, 2017 4:32 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| bonkers wrote: | Alex Abrines replaces Embiid in the Rising Stars (BOO!), Jokic to replace him in the Skills challenge.
EDIT: DOUBLE BOO (Willy Hernangomez to replace Mudiay in the Rising Stars)
I guess they felt like they needed another guard to replace Mudiay in Abrines, but Zubac can make TREYS TOO FAM @ ! |
Alex is 23! He could be Zu's grandfather |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
dcarter4kobe
Franchise Player
Joined: 30 Jul 2005
Posts: 17674
|
| Posted: Wed Feb 15, 2017 8:30 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Honestly I would rather Zu have that time off so he can focus on his game. Same with Ingram.
_________________
"He's a Zen master, so he can speak to you, and he doesn't need a microphone; you can hear him in your head, 'Ron, don't shoot, don't shoot.' Whatever, pow, three. I love the Zen, though." |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
LakerSD
Franchise Player
Joined: 10 Nov 2016
Posts: 23778
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
cmonkee
Star Player
Joined: 01 Mar 2004
Posts: 5301
Location: Redondo Beach
|
| Posted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:57 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| LakerSD wrote: | | http://www.nba.com/lakers/news/170216-history-future-of-ivica-zubac |
great read! man i really like this kid. i hope we hang onto him and he thrives here  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Baron Von Humongous
Retired Number
Joined: 02 Jul 2015
Posts: 32979
|
| Posted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:19 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| LakerSD wrote: | | http://www.nba.com/lakers/news/170216-history-future-of-ivica-zubac |
He needs to be a Laker for life. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
justsomelakerfan
Franchise Player
Joined: 16 Jul 2016
Posts: 10939
|
| Posted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:22 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: | | Zubac: The first game I really watched closely was Game 7 of the 2010 Finals against Boston when I was 12. That's what got me hooked on the NBA. I started reading everything I could about the NBA and the Lakers. So I bought this Croatian magazine called "Basketball" about the NBA, and I had stacks and stacks of them. It was great. I was collecting them. I loved Kobe … everybody was a Kobe fan. I also liked Lamar Odom a lot. I liked Andrew Bynum's game, and Pau Gasol, of course. Metta. It's crazy to play with Metta! The first thing I told him last summer was that ‘I had your jersey when you were still Ron Artest!' I told him how crazy it was for me. I was so happy! He was like, ‘Why the hell did you buy my jersey!' But after practice we were scrimmaging, and I was playing well in those games, and he said, ‘Where did you learn those hooks!' I said, ‘Europe.' |
He had an Artest jersey! Stay forever!
_________________
Austin Reaves
Tweeter: @sarah_dotbiz |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
danzag
Franchise Player
Joined: 28 Apr 2013
Posts: 22311
Location: Brazil
|
| Posted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 3:37 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | LakerSD wrote: | | http://www.nba.com/lakers/news/170216-history-future-of-ivica-zubac |
He needs to be a Laker for life. |
This. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Big Game Jeff
Starting Rotation
Joined: 12 Jan 2011
Posts: 387
|
| Posted: Mon Feb 20, 2017 3:35 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Time to take the training wheels off this kid. He has the 'it' factor...
_________________
LAKERS RAIDERS KINGS DODGERS AZTECS MIDSHIPMEN |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Ziggy
Franchise Player
Joined: 10 Feb 2005
Posts: 12712
|
| Posted: Mon Feb 20, 2017 6:00 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| LakerSD wrote: | | http://www.nba.com/lakers/news/170216-history-future-of-ivica-zubac |
| Quote: | MT: OK, to jump back to Cibona, how did you develop as a player?
Zubac: I didn't start well. For my first two years, nobody considered me a talent or anything. I think I was 6'1" when I got there (186 centimeters). Then when I was 15, I grew about eight inches. And I started playing better, but an injury happened. I had a stress fracture in the navicular bone in my left foot, like Joel Embiid had, but he had two surgeries. |
I scared  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
epak
Retired Number
Joined: 30 Aug 2005
Posts: 34147
|
| Posted: Mon Feb 20, 2017 6:37 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Zubac, Larry and BI. Front court of the future. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
AC Green's V-Card
Star Player
Joined: 09 Aug 2012
Posts: 3063
|
| Posted: Mon Feb 20, 2017 6:48 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Baron Von Humongous wrote: | It's so odd to see him with a 17.3 PER and a -3.2 OBPM (-2.8 BPM). If you find any answers behind this statistical travesty, please let us know.
|
I'd have to study it more in-depth but the two things that jump out at me that hurt Zubac with BPM are minutes per game and three-point attempt rate.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html
| Quote: | | There was some debate over whether including minutes per game (MPG) in the regression was reasonable. It was clear from the regression, however, that MPG adds to the accuracy of BPM, and that consideration outweighed the desire to be orthogonal from coaching choices. Essentially, the positive (and sizeable) coefficient for MPG means that coaches can see things that the box score can't and that they, in general, are correct in giving minutes to the players they do, even when they give more minutes than the other box score statistics would suggest. In addition, MPG serves as a proxy for quality of opponents – if a player plays 5 MPG, he's probably playing against scrubs, while a player playing 35 MPG is playing against LeBron. To reduce weird effects from players playing only a couple of games with very high MPG (the last two games of the season for a team resting for the playoffs, for instance), MPG was regressed with 4 games of 0 MPG to create the input term, here called ReMPG. |
| Quote: | | j*(3PAr – Lg3PAr) gives a positive value for spacing and additional offensive rebounds off of 3 pointers. To help the regression work well historically, this is normalized vs. league average. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
dcarter4kobe
Franchise Player
Joined: 30 Jul 2005
Posts: 17674
|
| Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:01 pm Post subject: |
|
|
The best thing Magic said today is he want's to see Zubac playing 25-30 minutes a game for the rest of the season.
_________________
"He's a Zen master, so he can speak to you, and he doesn't need a microphone; you can hear him in your head, 'Ron, don't shoot, don't shoot.' Whatever, pow, three. I love the Zen, though." |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Megaton
Retired Number
Joined: 18 Feb 2015
Posts: 25636
|
| Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:03 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| dcarter4kobe wrote: | | The best thing Magic said today is he want's to see Zubac playing 25-30 minutes a game for the rest of the season. |
Magic is even smarter than I thought if that's the case.
Cut the BS and start the youthcore. The future is here and now and trim the fat for assets.
_________________
Darvin Scam: https://media.tenor.com/images/3c15249955860a4b16b59e8ae035fb75/tenor.gif |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
lakersfever714
Franchise Player
Joined: 05 Jan 2016
Posts: 11753
|
| Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:10 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| dcarter4kobe wrote: | | The best thing Magic said today is he want's to see Zubac playing 25-30 minutes a game for the rest of the season. |
I concur. I love it when executives think like I do. I think things will finally turn around slowly but surely.
_________________
LeGoat! LeMazing! LeGend! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
justsomelakerfan
Franchise Player
Joined: 16 Jul 2016
Posts: 10939
|
| Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:13 pm Post subject: |
|
|
YOUTHCORE
_________________
Austin Reaves
Tweeter: @sarah_dotbiz |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Megaton
Retired Number
Joined: 18 Feb 2015
Posts: 25636
|
| Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:14 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| lakersfever714 wrote: | | dcarter4kobe wrote: | | The best thing Magic said today is he want's to see Zubac playing 25-30 minutes a game for the rest of the season. |
I concur. I love it when executives think like I do. I think things will finally turn around slowly but surely. |
Same.
It's nice to hear people in the job think logically and without the frustration of making those logical moves.
Hopefully Magic really is all in on the youth movement going forward.
_________________
Darvin Scam: https://media.tenor.com/images/3c15249955860a4b16b59e8ae035fb75/tenor.gif |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
KindCrippler2000
Franchise Player
Joined: 02 May 2003
Posts: 15821
|
| Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:23 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| dcarter4kobe wrote: | | The best thing Magic said today is he want's to see Zubac playing 25-30 minutes a game for the rest of the season. |
I'm not against him starting, although I'd like to see how Black does first. Just trying to guess Mozgov's role on the team now. Chief Advisor to Zubac? Practice player? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
dcarter4kobe
Franchise Player
Joined: 30 Jul 2005
Posts: 17674
|
| Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:24 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| KindCrippler2000 wrote: | | dcarter4kobe wrote: | | The best thing Magic said today is he want's to see Zubac playing 25-30 minutes a game for the rest of the season. |
I'm not against him starting, although I'd like to see how Black does first. Just trying to guess Mozgov's role on the team now. Chief Advisor to Zubac? Practice player? |
Should be a buy out candidate to be honest.
_________________
"He's a Zen master, so he can speak to you, and he doesn't need a microphone; you can hear him in your head, 'Ron, don't shoot, don't shoot.' Whatever, pow, three. I love the Zen, though." |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
fiendishoc
Star Player
Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 8488
Location: The (real) short corner
|
| Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:27 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| AC Green's V-Card wrote: | | Baron Von Humongous wrote: | It's so odd to see him with a 17.3 PER and a -3.2 OBPM (-2.8 BPM). If you find any answers behind this statistical travesty, please let us know.
|
I'd have to study it more in-depth but the two things that jump out at me that hurt Zubac with BPM are minutes per game and three-point attempt rate.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html
| Quote: | | There was some debate over whether including minutes per game (MPG) in the regression was reasonable. It was clear from the regression, however, that MPG adds to the accuracy of BPM, and that consideration outweighed the desire to be orthogonal from coaching choices. Essentially, the positive (and sizeable) coefficient for MPG means that coaches can see things that the box score can't and that they, in general, are correct in giving minutes to the players they do, even when they give more minutes than the other box score statistics would suggest. In addition, MPG serves as a proxy for quality of opponents – if a player plays 5 MPG, he's probably playing against scrubs, while a player playing 35 MPG is playing against LeBron. To reduce weird effects from players playing only a couple of games with very high MPG (the last two games of the season for a team resting for the playoffs, for instance), MPG was regressed with 4 games of 0 MPG to create the input term, here called ReMPG. |
| Quote: | | j*(3PAr – Lg3PAr) gives a positive value for spacing and additional offensive rebounds off of 3 pointers. To help the regression work well historically, this is normalized vs. league average. |
|
There's quite a bit of "editorializing" in BPM in the name of trying to squeeze in more predictive ability, moreso than other popular statistical measures (outside from RPM). Team adjustment is another thing that's in there that's not in measures like PER. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
