OFFICIAL IVICA ZUBAC THREAD
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1ngr4m
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 7:42 am    Post subject:

I'm interested to see how Zu develops, right now I see him as someone who can bring instant offense. Just throw him the ball and he'll give you a good percentage shot.

He needs to work on endurance, strength and getting the most athleticism out of his body but all of those are expected to come with time since he's just a 19 year old. I'm stocked to have this kid on the team and I'm hoping he's our Center for a long long time.
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tox
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 8:56 pm    Post subject:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaKhvAmVSD0

OK, I'm watching this game, and there is one thing that pops out to me: Russell and Zubac have INCREDIBLE chemistry on the PnR together. Like holy crap.

Russell is great at getting the ball to Zubac on the short roll, or even a regular roll, where Zubac can use an array of shots to score.

Zub's points per 36 / TS% with Russell: 17.7 on 59.3%
Without Russell: 16.0 on 51.7%

Meanwhile, because they have such great chemistry, Russell doesn't get PnR turnovers like he does with Moz and Tarik.
Russell's assist-to-turnover ratio SKYROCKETS with Zubac: 3.1 ATR, on 26.6% AST% total.
Without Zubac: 1.51, on 26.1% AST%

In addition, Zubac sets MASSIVE screens, which give Russell so much extra room to attack the defense.

Russell's points per 36/ TS% with Zub: 19.6 on 58.7%
Without Zub: 19.2 on 50.9% TS%

Interestingly, the proportion of shots Russell takes as jump shots is steady (83% without Zubac, 85% with him), so it's more that Zubac frees up Russell to get good looks (plus perhaps a matter of some hot shooting that happens to coincide with playing next to Zubac?).

Anyways, it's pretty clear these two have some really good offensive chemistry together.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:45 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaKhvAmVSD0

OK, I'm watching this game, and there is one thing that pops out to me: Russell and Zubac have INCREDIBLE chemistry on the PnR together. Like holy crap.

Russell is great at getting the ball to Zubac on the short roll, or even a regular roll, where Zubac can use an array of shots to score.

Zub's points per 36 / TS% with Russell: 17.7 on 59.3%
Without Russell: 16.0 on 51.7%

Meanwhile, because they have such great chemistry, Russell doesn't get PnR turnovers like he does with Moz and Tarik.
Russell's assist-to-turnover ratio SKYROCKETS with Zubac: 3.1 ATR, on 26.6% AST% total.
Without Zubac: 1.51, on 26.1% AST%

In addition, Zubac sets MASSIVE screens, which give Russell so much extra room to attack the defense.

Russell's points per 36/ TS% with Zub: 19.6 on 58.7%
Without Zub: 19.2 on 50.9% TS%

Interestingly, the proportion of shots Russell takes as jump shots is steady (83% without Zubac, 85% with him), so it's more that Zubac frees up Russell to get good looks (plus perhaps a matter of some hot shooting that happens to coincide with playing next to Zubac?).

Anyways, it's pretty clear these two have some really good offensive chemistry together.

But does Russell ever feed Zu in the post? That's the most pressing issue.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:49 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaKhvAmVSD0

OK, I'm watching this game, and there is one thing that pops out to me: Russell and Zubac have INCREDIBLE chemistry on the PnR together. Like holy crap.

Russell is great at getting the ball to Zubac on the short roll, or even a regular roll, where Zubac can use an array of shots to score.

Zub's points per 36 / TS% with Russell: 17.7 on 59.3%
Without Russell: 16.0 on 51.7%

Meanwhile, because they have such great chemistry, Russell doesn't get PnR turnovers like he does with Moz and Tarik.
Russell's assist-to-turnover ratio SKYROCKETS with Zubac: 3.1 ATR, on 26.6% AST% total.
Without Zubac: 1.51, on 26.1% AST%

In addition, Zubac sets MASSIVE screens, which give Russell so much extra room to attack the defense.

Russell's points per 36/ TS% with Zub: 19.6 on 58.7%
Without Zub: 19.2 on 50.9% TS%

Interestingly, the proportion of shots Russell takes as jump shots is steady (83% without Zubac, 85% with him), so it's more that Zubac frees up Russell to get good looks (plus perhaps a matter of some hot shooting that happens to coincide with playing next to Zubac?).

Anyways, it's pretty clear these two have some really good offensive chemistry together.


Hey, great post. Thanks for the work you put in, these are the types of posts I love seeing around these parts.
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dcarter4kobe
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:56 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaKhvAmVSD0

OK, I'm watching this game, and there is one thing that pops out to me: Russell and Zubac have INCREDIBLE chemistry on the PnR together. Like holy crap.

Russell is great at getting the ball to Zubac on the short roll, or even a regular roll, where Zubac can use an array of shots to score.

Zub's points per 36 / TS% with Russell: 17.7 on 59.3%
Without Russell: 16.0 on 51.7%

Meanwhile, because they have such great chemistry, Russell doesn't get PnR turnovers like he does with Moz and Tarik.
Russell's assist-to-turnover ratio SKYROCKETS with Zubac: 3.1 ATR, on 26.6% AST% total.
Without Zubac: 1.51, on 26.1% AST%

In addition, Zubac sets MASSIVE screens, which give Russell so much extra room to attack the defense.

Russell's points per 36/ TS% with Zub: 19.6 on 58.7%
Without Zub: 19.2 on 50.9% TS%

Interestingly, the proportion of shots Russell takes as jump shots is steady (83% without Zubac, 85% with him), so it's more that Zubac frees up Russell to get good looks (plus perhaps a matter of some hot shooting that happens to coincide with playing next to Zubac?).

Anyways, it's pretty clear these two have some really good offensive chemistry together.


Great post.

All about the other side with Zu. He's so young & so much better on offense than Moz, I'm almost ready to say he should be starting at C going into next season.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:27 pm    Post subject:

if zu can become more ripped and explosive, look out. could be our starting C for the next decade plus.
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tox
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:36 pm    Post subject:

DangeRuss wrote:

Hey, great post. Thanks for the work you put in, these are the types of posts I love seeing around these parts.



dcarter4kobe wrote:

Great post.

All about the other side with Zu. He's so young & so much better on offense than Moz, I'm almost ready to say he should be starting at C going into next season.


Yep, with regard to our conversation on the Tarik thread, it really comes down to defense & rebounding. If that 35th percentile ppp is an accurate representation of his defense, and he comes back much improved on defense like I hope he will, those offensive advantages should earn him a starting spot. Rebounding is the other concern, as his on/off splits are staggeringly bad when it comes to rebounding (to say nothing of his individual numbers).

As I said before, I wish we got to see the Russell/ Young/ Deng/ Randle/ Zubac lineup play for >100 min, because that was Moz's best lineup and I wonder how replaceable he is in that unit.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:29 am    Post subject:

Zu has a great feel for the game. At this age it is very encouraging. He is only going to get better.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:19 am    Post subject:

Dr. Funkbot wrote:
Zu has a great feel for the game. At this age it is very encouraging. He is only going to get better.


He is a naturally gifted offensive player. A player like DeAndre would probably brick the shots he made at the start of the video. He looks almost like a guard finishing those.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:26 am    Post subject:

Everytime I log in and I see this thread, it looks like it says
"MCA ZUBAC THREAD"
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dcarter4kobe
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:32 am    Post subject:

Would be nice if we could have all of Zu's synergy stats in comparisons to Mozgov's.
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:34 am    Post subject:

I'm not concerned about his offense; defense is what will determine if he's a starter or role player.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:39 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
I'm not concerned about his offense; defense is what will determine if he's a starter or role player.


Having a great feel for offense helps a lot in determining if you are a starter or not. IMO Zubac is already our best shot blocker.

Kid has a huge wingspan and he has a high BBall IQ, so I think he will end up being a good defender despite his slower foot speed.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:40 am    Post subject:

dcarter4kobe wrote:
Would be nice if we could have all of Zu's synergy stats in comparisons to Mozgov's.


He's so raw it wouldn't illuminate much for me, just as I don't think Ingram's advanced stats mean a lot. It really does come down to the often mocked eye test (at this stage at least). Do you think he has "it"? "It", in this case, being a higher ceiling next season than Moz. I'm kind of amazed that some people are on the fence about it.
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dcarter4kobe
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:46 am    Post subject:

greenfrog wrote:
dcarter4kobe wrote:
Would be nice if we could have all of Zu's synergy stats in comparisons to Mozgov's.


He's so raw it wouldn't illuminate much for me, just as I don't think Ingram's advanced stats mean a lot. It really does come to the often mocked eye test. Do you think he has "it"? "It", in this case, being a higher ceiling next season than Moz. I'm kind of amazed that some people are on the fence about it.


More interested in the defensive numbers. In the latest GT podcast, it was said Zu was in the 35th percentile,I believe, for overall defense PPP (similar to Ingram), which isnt nearly as bad as some think, especially for a 19 year old adjusting to the modern NBA game.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:00 am    Post subject:

dcarter4kobe wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
dcarter4kobe wrote:
Would be nice if we could have all of Zu's synergy stats in comparisons to Mozgov's.


He's so raw it wouldn't illuminate much for me, just as I don't think Ingram's advanced stats mean a lot. It really does come to the often mocked eye test. Do you think he has "it"? "It", in this case, being a higher ceiling next season than Moz. I'm kind of amazed that some people are on the fence about it.


More interested in the defensive numbers. In the latest GT podcast, it was said Zu was in the 35th percentile,I believe, for overall defense PPP (similar to Ingram), which isnt nearly as bad as some think, especially for a 19 year old adjusting to the modern NBA game.


Sure.

It is also not fair to single out the rookie defense when players starting in front of him are also defensive liabilities.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 12:07 pm    Post subject:

TOX

Stat request. Could you show the impact that Zu/DLO have on Jules game (or vice-versa)? Trying to see how well he would work with them/what the stats show about whatever time they've spent on the court together? Promise I'm not being lazy -- you just seem to have the goods, so I'm heading straight to the source
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tox
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 1:15 pm    Post subject:

Cutheon wrote:
TOX

Stat request. Could you show the impact that Zu/DLO have on Jules game (or vice-versa)? Trying to see how well he would work with them/what the stats show about whatever time they've spent on the court together? Promise I'm not being lazy -- you just seem to have the goods, so I'm heading straight to the source

Sure. For the record, I recommend you play around with NBAwowy.com since that's where I get most of the stats. It's a pretty ugly and glitchy site, but it's also intuitive to use I think. Teach a man to fish, etc. etc.

But to answer your question:
Randle w/ Zubac (per-36):
16.6 points (57% TS%), 9.5 rebounds (2.4 offensive), 4 assists (1.75 assist-to-turnover ratio)
Zubac w/Randle (per-36):
17.4 points (58% TS%), 8.8 rebounds (2.0 offensive), 1.6 blocks

Side note, most of the Randle/Zubac min are with Russell & Clarkson late in the season. So you can argue that Russell and/or Clarkson affect these stats as well, and you can also argue these stats are bloated by them playing teams that don't really care.

Randle w/o Zubac (per-36):
16.2 points (54% TS%), 10.7 rebounds (2.5 offensive), 4.5 assists (1.5 assist-to-turnover ratio)
Zubac w/o Randle (per-36):
16.2 points (52.6% TS%), 9.7 rebounds (2.7 offensive), 2.3 blocks

It doesn't seem like Randle played any better with Zubac, but Zubac played better with Randle?

(Also, I should point out that of the 255 minutes that they played together, Clarkson played in 192 of them -- and was terrible, TS% of 49.7. Russell played in 186 of them was good, TS% of 58%.)

I'll do the breakdown for Randle/ Russell on the next post.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 1:30 pm    Post subject:

Randle & Russell together (per-36)
Russell: 19.6 points (52.7% TS%), 4.4 reb, 5.7 assist (1.7 ATR)
Randle: 16.3 points (55.2% TS%), 10.4 reb, 4.6 assists (1.8 ATR)

Randle w/o Russell (per-36):
16.2 (52.3% TS%), 10.7 reb, 4.0 assist (1.2 ATR)

Russell w/o Randle (per-36):
18.0 points (48.6% TS%), 4.3 reb, 6.5 assist (1.8 ATR)

So it seems like they both benefit each other, especially when it comes to being efficient. I'd take a grain of salt with these stats, though. Because, if I do Russell w/o Randle AND Clarkson, I get, in smaller minutes (213):
19.8 points (54.7% TS%), 4.7 reb, 7.8 assist (2.4 ATR)

c.f. Russell w/Randle AND w/o Clarkson
21.2 points (54.8% TS%), 4.7 reb, 6.5 assist (1.8 ATR)

So they're pretty comparable overall. So in reality, though it seems Russell plays worse without Randle, it's probably not a statement on how Randle affects Russell. Instead, it's simply letting us know that when Russell is playing w/o Randle, he's playing a lot with Clarkson, with whom he's mostly been terrible all season.

That's the tricky part of these kinds of analyses. If you didn't suspect Clarkson to be the lurking factor, you'd just happily accept that Randle is benefiting Russell and vice-versa. Even the above post with Zubac... you can't say for sure it's really Randle helping him as opposed to something lurking like Clarkson here.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 1:36 pm    Post subject:

So basically what you are saying Tox, everyone typically performs worse with JC on the court
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 1:49 pm    Post subject:

dcarter4kobe wrote:
So basically what you are saying Tox, everyone typically performs worse with JC on the court

Nah, that's unfair to JC. Deng & Russell do absolutely without a doubt. Randle maybe, but I wonder if there's something else lurking... like that Randle sucked in small ball and JC & Randle played together mostly in small ball lineups?

But Zubac is pretty good with JC, for example. Or BI's TS% post-ASB was 54% next to JC, 47% without him. Turns out that he needs both JC and Russell (60% with them both, 47% with just JC and 42% with just DLO)... but the point remains that JC didn't hurt BI post-ASB like he did DLO & Deng.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 1:59 pm    Post subject:

dcarter4kobe wrote:
So basically what you are saying Tox, everyone typically performs worse with JC on the court


One thing is individual performance other thing is lineup success. Clarkson is present in 66% of our lineups with a positive net rating (outscoring opponents). If you want to win games there are more lineups you can use with him than without him.

I'm I pretending we should build around Clarkson?

No, I'm not.

It is a signal about how poorly out roster is constructed.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:46 pm    Post subject:

Zubac needs to be the 1st or 2nd option on offense. He needs to post up a lot more; he's too good to be just setting screens.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:55 pm    Post subject:

Scoffs wrote:
Zubac needs to be the 1st or 2nd option on offense. He needs to post up a lot more; he's too good to be just setting screens.


No he doesn't.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:56 pm    Post subject:

I want the best shooters taking the most shots.
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