ESPN's Kevin Pelton projects Lakers to win 26 games after signings
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beastlybp
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:21 pm    Post subject: ESPN's Kevin Pelton projects Lakers to win 26 games after signings

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/16705535/does-luol-deng-deal-make-los-angeles-lakers-playoff-team-nba

This espn insider article projected the amount of wins using real plus minus.

Quote:
In all, the combination projects to be most similar to last year's Brooklyn Nets (who were a bit worse on defense than the Lakers project) or Phoenix Suns (who were a bit worse on offense), and it would yield an expected 26 wins -- the most the Lakers have won since 2013-14, but still a bad investment given how much salary they've committed for the future.


Question is how many wins do you think we can get with the recent signings?


Last edited by beastlybp on Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:25 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:22 pm    Post subject:

32-35
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Future
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:22 pm    Post subject: Re: ESPN's Kevin Pelton projects Lakers to win 26 games

beastlybp wrote:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/16705535/does-luol-deng-deal-make-los-angeles-lakers-playoff-team-nba

This espn insider article projected the amount of wins using real plus minus.

Quote:
In all, the combination projects to be most similar to last year's Brooklyn Nets (who were a bit worse on defense than the Lakers project) or Phoenix Suns (who were a bit worse on offense), and it would yield an expected 26 wins -- the most the Lakers have won since 2013-14, but still a bad investment given how much salary they've committed for the future.


Question is how many wins do you think we can get with the recent signings?


IS this after our signings?
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:23 pm    Post subject:

He's 10 wins off ... we going for 36 wins baby!
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:24 pm    Post subject:

30 something wins. As long as we see development and improvement, as long as we see actual basketball plays and a system being implemented, a culture being fostered, I think most realistic fans will be satisfied.

Last edited by Shaolin's Finest on Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:24 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:24 pm    Post subject:

30-35 wins
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beastlybp
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:24 pm    Post subject: Re: ESPN's Kevin Pelton projects Lakers to win 26 games

Future wrote:
beastlybp wrote:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/16705535/does-luol-deng-deal-make-los-angeles-lakers-playoff-team-nba

This espn insider article projected the amount of wins using real plus minus.

Quote:
In all, the combination projects to be most similar to last year's Brooklyn Nets (who were a bit worse on defense than the Lakers project) or Phoenix Suns (who were a bit worse on offense), and it would yield an expected 26 wins -- the most the Lakers have won since 2013-14, but still a bad investment given how much salary they've committed for the future.


Question is how many wins do you think we can get with the recent signings?


IS this after our signings?


yes
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:25 pm    Post subject:

26 is reasonable. I think around 30 wins would be reasonably optimistic.
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Future
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:25 pm    Post subject: Re: ESPN's Kevin Pelton projects Lakers to win 26 games

beastlybp wrote:
Future wrote:
beastlybp wrote:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/16705535/does-luol-deng-deal-make-los-angeles-lakers-playoff-team-nba

This espn insider article projected the amount of wins using real plus minus.

Quote:
In all, the combination projects to be most similar to last year's Brooklyn Nets (who were a bit worse on defense than the Lakers project) or Phoenix Suns (who were a bit worse on offense), and it would yield an expected 26 wins -- the most the Lakers have won since 2013-14, but still a bad investment given how much salary they've committed for the future.


Question is how many wins do you think we can get with the recent signings?


IS this after our signings?


yes


WHo was bottom four?
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:35 pm    Post subject:

I'd guessed about 30 before Deng
I'll guess 33-38 now

gonna be some growing pains along with them needing to learn a new system and mature in that system - not to mention they're young and will need to grow up some (getting rid of Young would be a huge step in the right direction)
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:37 pm    Post subject:

pfft...
LAL will get 50+ wins
*puts on sunglasses*


Last edited by Anon-kun on Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:37 pm; edited 1 time in total
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sonic the laker
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:37 pm    Post subject:

I think around 30 wins, give or take, is very reasonable.

I disagree with his assessment, that the deals were "bad investments". If there was better to be had, than he would be correct. But, seeing as how there weren't many(any) notable FA's willing to sign with the Lakers...


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:37 pm    Post subject:

30 for sure...30+ if we add two more players like Gerald Henderson and Ian Clark.
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:38 pm    Post subject:

How do you come up with the "real" plus minus of a group of rookies entering the their 2nd and 3rd years?

How does a "real" plus minus factor in a better coach that will be running a real offense?

What sort of math is needed for a "real" plus minus to come up with the fact that we will no longer be on a season long Kobe farewell tour?

Analytics can only do so much. It obviously fails in this regard. I guess we're just going to have to play all 82 games to find out how many wins we will end up with next season...
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:38 pm    Post subject:

I'd rather the Lakers get another lottery pick than be mediocre.
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:40 pm    Post subject:

Def over 30. Gonna be a homer and say 32-35 wins. I see DLO/Ingram/JC/Randle balling out. F the rest of the league.
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:43 pm    Post subject:

Thats about where I think they'll be, still in the hunt for top 3, but at least the young players will get to develop. They could be nice complementary pieces for when they actually find the Hall of Famer to build the team around...

Last edited by JUST-MING on Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:43 pm; edited 1 time in total
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epak
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:43 pm    Post subject:

Interesting comparing us to Phoenix who was dealing with EB missing over half the season and a late season coaching change.
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:46 pm    Post subject:

Anon-kun wrote:
pfft...
LAL will get 50+ wins
*puts on sunglasses*


Pffft. Yeah right. More like 48-49 wins, if we're being realistic.
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:46 pm    Post subject:

Big Game James wrote:
How do you come up with the "real" plus minus of a group of rookies entering the their 2nd and 3rd years?

How does a "real" plus minus factor in a better coach that will be running a real offense?

What sort of math is needed for a "real" plus minus to come up with the fact that we will no longer be on a season long Kobe farewell tour?

Analytics can only do so much. It obviously fails in this regard. I guess we're just going to have to play all 82 games to find out how many wins we will end up with next season...


Off the top of my head, you'd probably do a regression analysis of change in +/- for 2nd and 3rd year players and then estimate based on their previous year +/- where they'd fall on the regression line. It's really hand wavy statistics though, and I actually doubt Pelton even did that much work. You'd really need to do more digging--like how many first year players were held back by coaches their first season and then got a new coach who encouraged them and how their developmental trajectory looks. Also, projecting college-to-pros first year is all guesswork. Ingram could be a total stud, he could be a dud, he could be average....who knows. There is also the point that this kind of analysis is idiotic before rosters are even set.

You could flip the argument and say that assuming no great improvement from the younger players and no coaching effect, just adding Deng and Mozgov add 9 wins. Add another veteran and that's probably +10-11 wins. If you factor in that Byron probably cost the team say 10 wins, the projections in here of mid-30s seem plausible. Of course, this is all guess work, even with the "math."
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:48 pm    Post subject:

25 Wins. This team is sub mediocre as hell
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:49 pm    Post subject: Re: ESPN's Kevin Pelton projects Lakers to win 26 games after signings

beastlybp wrote:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/16705535/does-luol-deng-deal-make-los-angeles-lakers-playoff-team-nba

This espn insider article projected the amount of wins using real plus minus.


On a related note, has ESPN become almost entirely "Insider"? Pretty much every article on there seems to be behind the pay wall now. They don't seem to be run by very bright bulbs if they think most people are going to pay for their drivel.....
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:49 pm    Post subject:

Under 30 games, we lack talent and are loaded with rookies...it'll be a tough season yet again...
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:50 pm    Post subject:

Black20Ice wrote:
I'd rather the Lakers get another lottery pick than be mediocre.



Those days are done, I believe. The last few seasons were abysmal, partly due to roster, partly due to purposely putting the team in position to lose, to have a better chance with lottery picks.

This team may not be much better than those past teams, but I think the mentality has changed. The Lakers don't want to be the 76ers of the West. Pinkie's "Trust the Process" sucked all life out of Philadelphia. They got Ben Simmons, and some other nice young pieces. But, wasn't worth all that, imo.

Lakers will focus on improving, and putting their young guys in positions to win. If they do lose, it won't be for trying.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 5:52 pm    Post subject:

Better than 17.
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