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Chase.button07 Star Player
Joined: 19 Feb 2017 Posts: 4996
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Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 10:30 am Post subject: |
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dam pelton, right on money
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City_Dawg Retired Number
Joined: 14 Jul 2006 Posts: 46878 Location: Coming soon and striking at your borders.
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Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 10:31 am Post subject: |
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I said 27, which is fine considering where the team is at this point. _________________ *sighs*
!... |
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Inspector Gadget Retired Number
Joined: 18 Apr 2016 Posts: 46492
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Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 10:31 am Post subject: |
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Hopefully next year we are more respected by the media and NBA. |
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pjiddy Retired Number
Joined: 12 Dec 2005 Posts: 29017
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Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 10:36 am Post subject: |
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Looking forward to next year's ESPN projection and subsequent "BSPN doesn't know (bleep)" backlash. |
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MickMgl Star Player
Joined: 07 Jan 2013 Posts: 1987
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Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 10:41 am Post subject: Re: ESPN's Kevin Pelton projects Lakers to win 26 games after signings |
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MickMgl wrote: | beastlybp wrote: | http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/16705535/does-luol-deng-deal-make-los-angeles-lakers-playoff-team-nba
This espn insider article projected the amount of wins using real plus minus.
Quote: | In all, the combination projects to be most similar to last year's Brooklyn Nets (who were a bit worse on defense than the Lakers project) or Phoenix Suns (who were a bit worse on offense), and it would yield an expected 26 wins -- the most the Lakers have won since 2013-14, but still a bad investment given how much salary they've committed for the future.
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Question is how many wins do you think we can get with the recent signings? |
26 sounds about right. I would have said 25. Put it in perspective. That's a 50% improvement. |
Good job, Luke. First time in seems-like-forever that I actually under-shot the win total. |
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tox Franchise Player
Joined: 16 Nov 2015 Posts: 17835
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Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:33 am Post subject: |
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tox wrote: | Statistical projections don't give a (bleep) about context. If you believe Scott's system actively hampered player's performances, then you should expect this to understate the effectiveness of every Laker on the roster last year.
In a way this is heartening. It makes me feel less silly for predicting for 30-32. |
30-32 seems about right if we didn't blatantly tank to end the season. |
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Snipes Star Player
Joined: 28 Feb 2005 Posts: 6000
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Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:35 am Post subject: |
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tox wrote: | tox wrote: | Statistical projections don't give a (bleep) about context. If you believe Scott's system actively hampered player's performances, then you should expect this to understate the effectiveness of every Laker on the roster last year.
In a way this is heartening. It makes me feel less silly for predicting for 30-32. |
30-32 seems about right if we didn't blatantly tank to end the season. |
We evened the tank out with a 5 game win streak so no. |
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tox Franchise Player
Joined: 16 Nov 2015 Posts: 17835
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Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:40 am Post subject: |
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Snipes wrote: | tox wrote: | tox wrote: | Statistical projections don't give a (bleep) about context. If you believe Scott's system actively hampered player's performances, then you should expect this to understate the effectiveness of every Laker on the roster last year.
In a way this is heartening. It makes me feel less silly for predicting for 30-32. |
30-32 seems about right if we didn't blatantly tank to end the season. |
We evened the tank out with a 5 game win streak so no. |
If we kept Nick and Lou and didn't tank the final 6 games, we would have won 5 anyways. Your logic makes no sense. |
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lakerfanaticPT Star Player
Joined: 23 Jun 2005 Posts: 1572
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Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 1:09 pm Post subject: |
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Without early season injuries and some tanking towards the end of the season...I think the Lakers should have had 30-35 wins this year but for next year, really depends on the youngsters. I think 35 would be realistic, but if we don't get the top 3 pick, I'm sure we will win less for a top 7 pick. |
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laker4life Star Player
Joined: 26 Nov 2001 Posts: 7317
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Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 2:23 pm Post subject: |
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On target.
Pretty good job by ESPN |
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ElginBaylor Franchise Player
Joined: 05 Nov 2005 Posts: 10772 Location: Hoosier Nation
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Posted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 6:29 am Post subject: |
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If we continue this trend in 3 years we'll be close to a 60 win team and contending for the championship. _________________ Not a legend |
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Omar Little Moderator
Joined: 02 May 2005 Posts: 90299 Location: Formerly Known As 24
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Posted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 7:17 am Post subject: |
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ElginBaylor wrote: | If we continue this trend in 3 years we'll be close to a 60 win team and contending for the championship. |
What do you mean? We already won 64 games over the last three years! _________________ “We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented.” ― Elie Wiesel |
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LakersRGolden Star Player
Joined: 13 Jan 2002 Posts: 7910 Location: Lake Forest
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Posted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 7:21 am Post subject: |
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laker4life wrote: | On target.
Pretty good job by ESPN |
It's amazing they knew we would tank for 30 games. They're really earning their keep. |
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Krispy Kreme Franchise Player
Joined: 30 Mar 2003 Posts: 12252
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Posted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 12:39 pm Post subject: |
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and the same thing will happen next year. if we don't make any significant moves or get that top 3 pick, ESPN will project a 30-35 win season. and all the homers will be offended and call ESPN trash. and ESPN will likely be very close to being right on the win total. _________________ Dominating every day. |
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AC Green's V-Card Star Player
Joined: 09 Aug 2012 Posts: 3063
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Posted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 12:58 pm Post subject: |
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LakersRGolden wrote: | laker4life wrote: | On target.
Pretty good job by ESPN |
It's amazing they knew we would tank for 30 games. They're really earning their keep. |
They probably didn't factor in the unsustainable shooting streak we'd be on for those first 10 wins. Lakers ended up regressing to the mean. Pelton got it right. |
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Jakanzi Starting Rotation
Joined: 10 Jan 2017 Posts: 206
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Posted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 7:08 pm Post subject: |
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LakersRGolden wrote: | laker4life wrote: | On target.
Pretty good job by ESPN |
It's amazing they knew we would tank for 30 games. They're really earning their keep. |
The incentives for the Lakers to tank have been known for a while, well before the season started. Seemed like the Luke signing and hot start made people forget about it but it always made sense for the Lakers to tank this season. It didn't factor into a purely statistical projection but it was something that would have been reasonable to predict. |
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HOF Rookie Star Player
Joined: 09 Jun 2015 Posts: 1717
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Posted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 8:01 pm Post subject: |
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Some people don't realize that these models are numerical.
No model will come close to predicting trades.
If they would have predicted 33 games, the same people would be ripping them for being 7 games off.
Clearly some folks on here will complain no matter what. |
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lalakersfan88 Star Player
Joined: 13 Jun 2008 Posts: 1324
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Posted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 8:34 pm Post subject: |
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a good indicator is checking vegas sportsbook on lakers win total for the upcoming season. "usually" they are nearly correct or close. |
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Staccatos Star Player
Joined: 16 Jul 2002 Posts: 2416
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Posted: Sat Apr 15, 2017 12:16 pm Post subject: |
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LakersRGolden wrote: | laker4life wrote: | On target.
Pretty good job by ESPN |
It's amazing they knew we would tank for 30 games. They're really earning their keep. |
From what I've been told, ESPN's parent company, Disney, has given them a copy of the "Back to the Future" Sports Almanac which ESPN occasionally uses for its predictions. |
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FerrisVille Star Player
Joined: 12 Aug 2003 Posts: 5356
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Posted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 7:43 am Post subject: |
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tox wrote: | Snipes wrote: | tox wrote: | tox wrote: | Statistical projections don't give a (bleep) about context. If you believe Scott's system actively hampered player's performances, then you should expect this to understate the effectiveness of every Laker on the roster last year.
In a way this is heartening. It makes me feel less silly for predicting for 30-32. |
30-32 seems about right if we didn't blatantly tank to end the season. |
We evened the tank out with a 5 game win streak so no. |
If we kept Nick and Lou and didn't tank the final 6 games, we would have won 5 anyways. Your logic makes no sense. |
Actually your logic doesn't make sense. That's still an unknown, so you cabt claim they would've won since they lost so much when Lou and Nick were playing. |
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tox Franchise Player
Joined: 16 Nov 2015 Posts: 17835
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Posted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:53 am Post subject: |
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FerrisVille wrote: | tox wrote: | Snipes wrote: | tox wrote: | tox wrote: | Statistical projections don't give a (bleep) about context. If you believe Scott's system actively hampered player's performances, then you should expect this to understate the effectiveness of every Laker on the roster last year.
In a way this is heartening. It makes me feel less silly for predicting for 30-32. |
30-32 seems about right if we didn't blatantly tank to end the season. |
We evened the tank out with a 5 game win streak so no. |
If we kept Nick and Lou and didn't tank the final 6 games, we would have won 5 anyways. Your logic makes no sense. |
Actually your logic doesn't make sense. That's still an unknown, so you cabt claim they would've won since they lost so much when Lou and Nick were playing. |
You're right, we'll never know for sure. But then again, we don't know for sure that the Dream Team would have won more than 10 games in an 82-game season ("that's still an unknown") but we can apply our brains and speculate they would have won at least 10 games.
It's an unknown, but we can use our brains and figure out the Lakers most likely (e.g. with probability 95%) would have won more with Lou and Nick, and the same blatantly tanking teams that we beat we would have beaten with Lou and Nick. |
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giordan0 Star Player
Joined: 05 Jan 2016 Posts: 1013
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Posted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 6:59 pm Post subject: |
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I will not doubt ESPN analytics after this prediction. _________________
_____________________________________
#MPLStheoriginallakeshow
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LakerDynasty6.0 Star Player
Joined: 12 Jan 2009 Posts: 4652
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Posted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 9:26 pm Post subject: |
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giordan0 wrote: | I will not doubt ESPN analytics after this prediction. |
And I will attempt to sell you a bridge or two! _________________ Starting Lakers Dynasty6.0! NOW!!
------
....." each year in Lakerland is marked by four seasons: Kobe’s Mad at His Teammates; Kobe’s Shooting Too Much; Kobe Leads the Victory Parade; Kobe Receives His Championship Ring." |
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Telleris Star Player
Joined: 28 May 2013 Posts: 2371
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Posted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 9:55 pm Post subject: |
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tox wrote: | tox wrote: | Statistical projections don't give a (bleep) about context. If you believe Scott's system actively hampered player's performances, then you should expect this to understate the effectiveness of every Laker on the roster last year.
In a way this is heartening. It makes me feel less silly for predicting for 30-32. |
30-32 seems about right if we didn't blatantly tank to end the season. |
when you're approaching the end of the season with <30 wins, tanking is a foregone conclusion, and the previous years tanking would be included in those projections _________________ I believe everything the media tells me except for anything for which I have direct personal knowledge, which they always get wrong |
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tox Franchise Player
Joined: 16 Nov 2015 Posts: 17835
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Posted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 10:10 pm Post subject: |
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Telleris wrote: | tox wrote: | tox wrote: | Statistical projections don't give a (bleep) about context. If you believe Scott's system actively hampered player's performances, then you should expect this to understate the effectiveness of every Laker on the roster last year.
In a way this is heartening. It makes me feel less silly for predicting for 30-32. |
30-32 seems about right if we didn't blatantly tank to end the season. |
when you're approaching the end of the season with <30 wins, tanking is a foregone conclusion, and the previous years tanking would be included in those projections |
Not in a statistical model like Pelton's. |
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