ESPN's Kevin Pelton projects Lakers to win 26 games after signings
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... , 9, 10, 11  Next
 
Post new topic    LakersGround.net Forum Index -> LA Lakers Lounge Reply to topic
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
Chase.button07
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 19 Feb 2017
Posts: 4996

PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 10:30 am    Post subject:

dam pelton, right on money

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
City_Dawg
Retired Number
Retired Number


Joined: 14 Jul 2006
Posts: 46878
Location: Coming soon and striking at your borders.

PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 10:31 am    Post subject:

I said 27, which is fine considering where the team is at this point.
_________________
*sighs*

!...
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
Inspector Gadget
Retired Number
Retired Number


Joined: 18 Apr 2016
Posts: 46492

PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 10:31 am    Post subject:

Hopefully next year we are more respected by the media and NBA.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
pjiddy
Retired Number
Retired Number


Joined: 12 Dec 2005
Posts: 29017

PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 10:36 am    Post subject:

Looking forward to next year's ESPN projection and subsequent "BSPN doesn't know (bleep)" backlash.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
MickMgl
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 07 Jan 2013
Posts: 1987

PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 10:41 am    Post subject: Re: ESPN's Kevin Pelton projects Lakers to win 26 games after signings

MickMgl wrote:
beastlybp wrote:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/16705535/does-luol-deng-deal-make-los-angeles-lakers-playoff-team-nba

This espn insider article projected the amount of wins using real plus minus.

Quote:
In all, the combination projects to be most similar to last year's Brooklyn Nets (who were a bit worse on defense than the Lakers project) or Phoenix Suns (who were a bit worse on offense), and it would yield an expected 26 wins -- the most the Lakers have won since 2013-14, but still a bad investment given how much salary they've committed for the future.


Question is how many wins do you think we can get with the recent signings?


26 sounds about right. I would have said 25. Put it in perspective. That's a 50% improvement.


Good job, Luke. First time in seems-like-forever that I actually under-shot the win total.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
tox
Franchise Player
Franchise Player


Joined: 16 Nov 2015
Posts: 17835

PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:33 am    Post subject:

tox wrote:
Statistical projections don't give a (bleep) about context. If you believe Scott's system actively hampered player's performances, then you should expect this to understate the effectiveness of every Laker on the roster last year.

In a way this is heartening. It makes me feel less silly for predicting for 30-32.


30-32 seems about right if we didn't blatantly tank to end the season.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
Snipes
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Posts: 6000

PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:35 am    Post subject:

tox wrote:
tox wrote:
Statistical projections don't give a (bleep) about context. If you believe Scott's system actively hampered player's performances, then you should expect this to understate the effectiveness of every Laker on the roster last year.

In a way this is heartening. It makes me feel less silly for predicting for 30-32.


30-32 seems about right if we didn't blatantly tank to end the season.


We evened the tank out with a 5 game win streak so no.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
tox
Franchise Player
Franchise Player


Joined: 16 Nov 2015
Posts: 17835

PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:40 am    Post subject:

Snipes wrote:
tox wrote:
tox wrote:
Statistical projections don't give a (bleep) about context. If you believe Scott's system actively hampered player's performances, then you should expect this to understate the effectiveness of every Laker on the roster last year.

In a way this is heartening. It makes me feel less silly for predicting for 30-32.


30-32 seems about right if we didn't blatantly tank to end the season.


We evened the tank out with a 5 game win streak so no.


If we kept Nick and Lou and didn't tank the final 6 games, we would have won 5 anyways. Your logic makes no sense.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
lakerfanaticPT
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 1572

PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 1:09 pm    Post subject:

Without early season injuries and some tanking towards the end of the season...I think the Lakers should have had 30-35 wins this year but for next year, really depends on the youngsters. I think 35 would be realistic, but if we don't get the top 3 pick, I'm sure we will win less for a top 7 pick.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
laker4life
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 26 Nov 2001
Posts: 7317

PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 2:23 pm    Post subject:

On target.

Pretty good job by ESPN
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
ElginBaylor
Franchise Player
Franchise Player


Joined: 05 Nov 2005
Posts: 10772
Location: Hoosier Nation

PostPosted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 6:29 am    Post subject:

If we continue this trend in 3 years we'll be close to a 60 win team and contending for the championship.
_________________
Not a legend
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
Omar Little
Moderator
Moderator


Joined: 02 May 2005
Posts: 90299
Location: Formerly Known As 24

PostPosted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 7:17 am    Post subject:

ElginBaylor wrote:
If we continue this trend in 3 years we'll be close to a 60 win team and contending for the championship.


What do you mean? We already won 64 games over the last three years!
_________________
“We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented.” ― Elie Wiesel
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
LakersRGolden
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 13 Jan 2002
Posts: 7910
Location: Lake Forest

PostPosted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 7:21 am    Post subject:

laker4life wrote:
On target.

Pretty good job by ESPN


It's amazing they knew we would tank for 30 games. They're really earning their keep.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
Krispy Kreme
Franchise Player
Franchise Player


Joined: 30 Mar 2003
Posts: 12252

PostPosted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 12:39 pm    Post subject:

and the same thing will happen next year. if we don't make any significant moves or get that top 3 pick, ESPN will project a 30-35 win season. and all the homers will be offended and call ESPN trash. and ESPN will likely be very close to being right on the win total.
_________________
Dominating every day.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
AC Green's V-Card
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 09 Aug 2012
Posts: 3063

PostPosted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 12:58 pm    Post subject:

LakersRGolden wrote:
laker4life wrote:
On target.

Pretty good job by ESPN


It's amazing they knew we would tank for 30 games. They're really earning their keep.


They probably didn't factor in the unsustainable shooting streak we'd be on for those first 10 wins. Lakers ended up regressing to the mean. Pelton got it right.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
Jakanzi
Starting Rotation
Starting Rotation


Joined: 10 Jan 2017
Posts: 206

PostPosted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 7:08 pm    Post subject:

LakersRGolden wrote:
laker4life wrote:
On target.

Pretty good job by ESPN


It's amazing they knew we would tank for 30 games. They're really earning their keep.


The incentives for the Lakers to tank have been known for a while, well before the season started. Seemed like the Luke signing and hot start made people forget about it but it always made sense for the Lakers to tank this season. It didn't factor into a purely statistical projection but it was something that would have been reasonable to predict.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
HOF Rookie
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 09 Jun 2015
Posts: 1717

PostPosted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 8:01 pm    Post subject:

Some people don't realize that these models are numerical.

No model will come close to predicting trades.

If they would have predicted 33 games, the same people would be ripping them for being 7 games off.

Clearly some folks on here will complain no matter what.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
lalakersfan88
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 13 Jun 2008
Posts: 1324

PostPosted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 8:34 pm    Post subject:

a good indicator is checking vegas sportsbook on lakers win total for the upcoming season. "usually" they are nearly correct or close.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
Staccatos
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 16 Jul 2002
Posts: 2416

PostPosted: Sat Apr 15, 2017 12:16 pm    Post subject:

LakersRGolden wrote:
laker4life wrote:
On target.

Pretty good job by ESPN


It's amazing they knew we would tank for 30 games. They're really earning their keep.


From what I've been told, ESPN's parent company, Disney, has given them a copy of the "Back to the Future" Sports Almanac which ESPN occasionally uses for its predictions.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
FerrisVille
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 12 Aug 2003
Posts: 5356

PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 7:43 am    Post subject:

tox wrote:
Snipes wrote:
tox wrote:
tox wrote:
Statistical projections don't give a (bleep) about context. If you believe Scott's system actively hampered player's performances, then you should expect this to understate the effectiveness of every Laker on the roster last year.

In a way this is heartening. It makes me feel less silly for predicting for 30-32.


30-32 seems about right if we didn't blatantly tank to end the season.


We evened the tank out with a 5 game win streak so no.


If we kept Nick and Lou and didn't tank the final 6 games, we would have won 5 anyways. Your logic makes no sense.



Actually your logic doesn't make sense. That's still an unknown, so you cabt claim they would've won since they lost so much when Lou and Nick were playing.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
tox
Franchise Player
Franchise Player


Joined: 16 Nov 2015
Posts: 17835

PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:53 am    Post subject:

FerrisVille wrote:
tox wrote:
Snipes wrote:
tox wrote:
tox wrote:
Statistical projections don't give a (bleep) about context. If you believe Scott's system actively hampered player's performances, then you should expect this to understate the effectiveness of every Laker on the roster last year.

In a way this is heartening. It makes me feel less silly for predicting for 30-32.


30-32 seems about right if we didn't blatantly tank to end the season.


We evened the tank out with a 5 game win streak so no.


If we kept Nick and Lou and didn't tank the final 6 games, we would have won 5 anyways. Your logic makes no sense.



Actually your logic doesn't make sense. That's still an unknown, so you cabt claim they would've won since they lost so much when Lou and Nick were playing.


You're right, we'll never know for sure. But then again, we don't know for sure that the Dream Team would have won more than 10 games in an 82-game season ("that's still an unknown") but we can apply our brains and speculate they would have won at least 10 games.

It's an unknown, but we can use our brains and figure out the Lakers most likely (e.g. with probability 95%) would have won more with Lou and Nick, and the same blatantly tanking teams that we beat we would have beaten with Lou and Nick.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
giordan0
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 05 Jan 2016
Posts: 1013

PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 6:59 pm    Post subject:

I will not doubt ESPN analytics after this prediction.
_________________

_____________________________________
#MPLStheoriginallakeshow
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
LakerDynasty6.0
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 12 Jan 2009
Posts: 4652

PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 9:26 pm    Post subject:

giordan0 wrote:
I will not doubt ESPN analytics after this prediction.


And I will attempt to sell you a bridge or two!
_________________
Starting Lakers Dynasty6.0! NOW!!
------
....." each year in Lakerland is marked by four seasons: Kobe’s Mad at His Teammates; Kobe’s Shooting Too Much; Kobe Leads the Victory Parade; Kobe Receives His Championship Ring."
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
Telleris
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 28 May 2013
Posts: 2371

PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 9:55 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
tox wrote:
Statistical projections don't give a (bleep) about context. If you believe Scott's system actively hampered player's performances, then you should expect this to understate the effectiveness of every Laker on the roster last year.

In a way this is heartening. It makes me feel less silly for predicting for 30-32.


30-32 seems about right if we didn't blatantly tank to end the season.


when you're approaching the end of the season with <30 wins, tanking is a foregone conclusion, and the previous years tanking would be included in those projections
_________________
I believe everything the media tells me except for anything for which I have direct personal knowledge, which they always get wrong
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
tox
Franchise Player
Franchise Player


Joined: 16 Nov 2015
Posts: 17835

PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 10:10 pm    Post subject:

Telleris wrote:
tox wrote:
tox wrote:
Statistical projections don't give a (bleep) about context. If you believe Scott's system actively hampered player's performances, then you should expect this to understate the effectiveness of every Laker on the roster last year.

In a way this is heartening. It makes me feel less silly for predicting for 30-32.


30-32 seems about right if we didn't blatantly tank to end the season.


when you're approaching the end of the season with <30 wins, tanking is a foregone conclusion, and the previous years tanking would be included in those projections


Not in a statistical model like Pelton's.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic    LakersGround.net Forum Index -> LA Lakers Lounge All times are GMT - 8 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... , 9, 10, 11  Next
Page 10 of 11
Jump to:  

 
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum






Graphics by uberzev
© 1995-2018 LakersGround.net. All Rights Reserved. Privacy Policy. Terms of Use.
LakersGround is an unofficial news source serving the fan community since 1995.
We are in no way associated with the Los Angeles Lakers or the National Basketball Association.


Powered by phpBB