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LakerLanny
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Joined: 24 Oct 2001
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 Posted: Tue Jul 26, 2016 11:56 pm Post subject: |
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| GreekTrojan wrote: | I agree with ESPN. I've also been right in calling the straight bad seasons of the past few seasons (Bottom 5 roster and bottom 5 coaching will do that). The Lakers have a new coaching staff and still have a bottom 5 roster when you factor out 'upside.' Right now the only teams in the NBA that have objectively worse rosters than the Lakers are The 76ers and the Nets (both in the East and if you really argued for them, you could rank the Nets above the Lakers and I wouldn't think you were insane).
Like all young teams, there is always a chance that players take a leap but its rare for all of the players to do it at the same time (players regress, get injuries, don't improve etc...). The Suns and Nuggets are both just as young and you could argue that their youngsters have shown even more potential than ours (Mudiay, Jokic, Booker etc...). Dallas is on the decline but Carlisle could coach five random posters in this thread to a competitive team. Kings certainly have some combustion potential but they still have Cousins and Gay. Just got to hope we look better (and land a top 3 pick again if were lucky). |
Excellent post and I agree with all of your points except for the last one.
I want top picks as much as the next guy, but I would rather the team finally start to improve...a bottom 3 type season would be frustrating at this point...unless it lead to the much needed changes that need to occur in our basketball operations.
I do think last years team should have been better than 17 wins, they should have been at 22 or 23 minimum, that is why I am trying to tell myself that my prediction of 31 wins for this season is not just being a complete homer.
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Vin
Star Player
Joined: 03 Jan 2013
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:00 am Post subject: |
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| Yeah very good post. Especially the Carlisle's part haha. So true. |
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Vin
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:01 am Post subject: |
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| Goldenwest wrote: | | zePokar wrote: | | dont_be_a_wuss wrote: | | Goldenwest wrote: | 25 wins and last place?  Byron could've done that without really trying
I'm going to resurrect this thread when we're fighting for a playoff spot. |
Could he really? He won 17 games last seasons and he lost the players, they had no respect for him and did not listen. I am not sure he could win 25 games. |
I think he meant he would get you the last place without even trying if it was as easy as to only get 25 wins. |
I think we were a 27 win team last year with some actual coaching. Add another 10 wins to that with the maturation of the young guns and more balanced roster and added vets (+Mozgov > Hibbert) and were pushing 40 and yes we have an outside shot at sneaking into the playoffs, that's the way i see it anyway.
so Byron if he were still here would still get about 7-10 more wins from last year just from the improved roster |
Ok I was wrong then. I don't think we're winning more than 20 games under another year of Byron with players quitting on him. |
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GreekTrojan
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Joined: 10 Jul 2013
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:23 am Post subject: |
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| LakerLanny wrote: | | GreekTrojan wrote: | I agree with ESPN. I've also been right in calling the straight bad seasons of the past few seasons (Bottom 5 roster and bottom 5 coaching will do that). The Lakers have a new coaching staff and still have a bottom 5 roster when you factor out 'upside.' Right now the only teams in the NBA that have objectively worse rosters than the Lakers are The 76ers and the Nets (both in the East and if you really argued for them, you could rank the Nets above the Lakers and I wouldn't think you were insane).
Like all young teams, there is always a chance that players take a leap but its rare for all of the players to do it at the same time (players regress, get injuries, don't improve etc...). The Suns and Nuggets are both just as young and you could argue that their youngsters have shown even more potential than ours (Mudiay, Jokic, Booker etc...). Dallas is on the decline but Carlisle could coach five random posters in this thread to a competitive team. Kings certainly have some combustion potential but they still have Cousins and Gay. Just got to hope we look better (and land a top 3 pick again if were lucky). |
Excellent post and I agree with all of your points except for the last one.
I want top picks as much as the next guy, but I would rather the team finally start to improve...a bottom 3 type season would be frustrating at this point...unless it lead to the much needed changes that need to occur in our basketball operations.
I do think last years team should have been better than 17 wins, they should have been at 22 or 23 minimum, that is why I am trying to tell myself that my prediction of 31 wins for this season is not just being a complete homer. |
I want a lotto pick because a)this draft is potentially loaded and more importantly b) if we keep our pick this year, we only end up having to give up one future first round pick (next year) rather than 2 (this year, and our first in 2019). |
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:34 am Post subject: |
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| LakerLanny wrote: | | GreekTrojan wrote: | I agree with ESPN. I've also been right in calling the straight bad seasons of the past few seasons (Bottom 5 roster and bottom 5 coaching will do that). The Lakers have a new coaching staff and still have a bottom 5 roster when you factor out 'upside.' Right now the only teams in the NBA that have objectively worse rosters than the Lakers are The 76ers and the Nets (both in the East and if you really argued for them, you could rank the Nets above the Lakers and I wouldn't think you were insane).
Like all young teams, there is always a chance that players take a leap but its rare for all of the players to do it at the same time (players regress, get injuries, don't improve etc...). The Suns and Nuggets are both just as young and you could argue that their youngsters have shown even more potential than ours (Mudiay, Jokic, Booker etc...). Dallas is on the decline but Carlisle could coach five random posters in this thread to a competitive team. Kings certainly have some combustion potential but they still have Cousins and Gay. Just got to hope we look better (and land a top 3 pick again if were lucky). |
Excellent post and I agree with all of your points except for the last one.
I want top picks as much as the next guy, but I would rather the team finally start to improve...a bottom 3 type season would be frustrating at this point...unless it lead to the much needed changes that need to occur in our basketball operations.
I do think last years team should have been better than 17 wins, they should have been at 22 or 23 minimum, that is why I am trying to tell myself that my prediction of 31 wins for this season is not just being a complete homer. |
I always shake my head when I see people say stuff like mudiay and booker showed more potential. I get raw numbers, and mudiay was definitely physically more ready, but neither guy actually was better by any real functional metrics than dlo, and both had much better environments to shine in.
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:38 am Post subject: |
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| Omar Little wrote: | | LakerLanny wrote: | | GreekTrojan wrote: | I agree with ESPN. I've also been right in calling the straight bad seasons of the past few seasons (Bottom 5 roster and bottom 5 coaching will do that). The Lakers have a new coaching staff and still have a bottom 5 roster when you factor out 'upside.' Right now the only teams in the NBA that have objectively worse rosters than the Lakers are The 76ers and the Nets (both in the East and if you really argued for them, you could rank the Nets above the Lakers and I wouldn't think you were insane).
Like all young teams, there is always a chance that players take a leap but its rare for all of the players to do it at the same time (players regress, get injuries, don't improve etc...). The Suns and Nuggets are both just as young and you could argue that their youngsters have shown even more potential than ours (Mudiay, Jokic, Booker etc...). Dallas is on the decline but Carlisle could coach five random posters in this thread to a competitive team. Kings certainly have some combustion potential but they still have Cousins and Gay. Just got to hope we look better (and land a top 3 pick again if were lucky). |
Excellent post and I agree with all of your points except for the last one.
I want top picks as much as the next guy, but I would rather the team finally start to improve...a bottom 3 type season would be frustrating at this point...unless it lead to the much needed changes that need to occur in our basketball operations.
I do think last years team should have been better than 17 wins, they should have been at 22 or 23 minimum, that is why I am trying to tell myself that my prediction of 31 wins for this season is not just being a complete homer. |
I always shake my head when I see people say stuff like mudiay and booker showed more potential. I get raw numbers, and mudiay was definitely physically more ready, but neither guy actually was better by any real functional metrics than dlo, and both had much better environments to shine in. |
Not a fan of that .437 true shooting %, eh? |
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yohanone
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Joined: 13 Oct 2015
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Location: Riverside County
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:12 am Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | | Omar Little wrote: | | LakerLanny wrote: | | GreekTrojan wrote: | I agree with ESPN. I've also been right in calling the straight bad seasons of the past few seasons (Bottom 5 roster and bottom 5 coaching will do that). The Lakers have a new coaching staff and still have a bottom 5 roster when you factor out 'upside.' Right now the only teams in the NBA that have objectively worse rosters than the Lakers are The 76ers and the Nets (both in the East and if you really argued for them, you could rank the Nets above the Lakers and I wouldn't think you were insane).
Like all young teams, there is always a chance that players take a leap but its rare for all of the players to do it at the same time (players regress, get injuries, don't improve etc...). The Suns and Nuggets are both just as young and you could argue that their youngsters have shown even more potential than ours (Mudiay, Jokic, Booker etc...). Dallas is on the decline but Carlisle could coach five random posters in this thread to a competitive team. Kings certainly have some combustion potential but they still have Cousins and Gay. Just got to hope we look better (and land a top 3 pick again if were lucky). |
Excellent post and I agree with all of your points except for the last one.
I want top picks as much as the next guy, but I would rather the team finally start to improve...a bottom 3 type season would be frustrating at this point...unless it lead to the much needed changes that need to occur in our basketball operations.
I do think last years team should have been better than 17 wins, they should have been at 22 or 23 minimum, that is why I am trying to tell myself that my prediction of 31 wins for this season is not just being a complete homer. |
I always shake my head when I see people say stuff like mudiay and booker showed more potential. I get raw numbers, and mudiay was definitely physically more ready, but neither guy actually was better by any real functional metrics than dlo, and both had much better environments to shine in. |
Not a fan of that .437 true shooting %, eh? |
I cringe just thinking about it. 
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JJin77
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:44 am Post subject: |
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| Omar Little wrote: | | LakerLanny wrote: | | GreekTrojan wrote: | I agree with ESPN. I've also been right in calling the straight bad seasons of the past few seasons (Bottom 5 roster and bottom 5 coaching will do that). The Lakers have a new coaching staff and still have a bottom 5 roster when you factor out 'upside.' Right now the only teams in the NBA that have objectively worse rosters than the Lakers are The 76ers and the Nets (both in the East and if you really argued for them, you could rank the Nets above the Lakers and I wouldn't think you were insane).
Like all young teams, there is always a chance that players take a leap but its rare for all of the players to do it at the same time (players regress, get injuries, don't improve etc...). The Suns and Nuggets are both just as young and you could argue that their youngsters have shown even more potential than ours (Mudiay, Jokic, Booker etc...). Dallas is on the decline but Carlisle could coach five random posters in this thread to a competitive team. Kings certainly have some combustion potential but they still have Cousins and Gay. Just got to hope we look better (and land a top 3 pick again if were lucky). |
Excellent post and I agree with all of your points except for the last one.
I want top picks as much as the next guy, but I would rather the team finally start to improve...a bottom 3 type season would be frustrating at this point...unless it lead to the much needed changes that need to occur in our basketball operations.
I do think last years team should have been better than 17 wins, they should have been at 22 or 23 minimum, that is why I am trying to tell myself that my prediction of 31 wins for this season is not just being a complete homer. |
I always shake my head when I see people say stuff like mudiay and booker showed more potential. I get raw numbers, and mudiay was definitely physically more ready, but neither guy actually was better by any real functional metrics than dlo, and both had much better environments to shine in. |
I agree.
I thought Mudiay improved a lot after all star break and showed plenty of potential to warrant his 6th pick status, but saying Mudiay > Dlo is all kinds of stupidity.
But to be fair, people can make legitimate case that Booker showed more potential than Dlo. Booker was riding pine to start the season, but when he got the green light after all star break, he put up 10.6 ppg to 19.2 ppg though his TS% went .573 to .503. By same barometer, 12.2 ->15.1 ppg on .502 to .514 TS%. Although Dlo was held back by BS, no doubt, its fair to say that you can't bank on Dlo to outperform Booker's output even if Dlo got the green light. I think it is fair to say Booker and M. Turner had better rookie season.
KAT is different animal altogether.
To me, it doesn't really matter too much at this point of their career anyways.
T. Evans had historical rookie year and B. Jennings with 50 pts game for the first time since Wilt(??) as a rookie. only to passed by Harden in his 4th season in Houston. then 3 point chucking injury prone Stephen Curry became back to back MVP. in other words, its way to early to write off some of these young kids already, even Mudiay (I know...I don't really see him becoming better than Dlo, Booker and others but...you know what I mean?)
I might not share same confidence that Dlo will become a super star, but I do think Dlo has shown as much potential to become one (outside of KAT) given his unhealthy circumstances. |
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deal
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 3:10 am Post subject: |
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For a this Rookie team 25 sounds about right. Better things ahead...
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 5:21 am Post subject: |
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| kikanga wrote: | Past few years, LG always complains about ESPNs win total projections for us.
In retrospect, I think they've called our win totals pretty well.
Yinoma, what do you think about the projection? Is 25 wins fair?
I can remember you posting in the past that ESPN has actually been generous with our win projections in past years. I think you said they overestimated our win total a couple times. |
I have us in the 28-32 win range this year.
Yeah, with the Lakers they tend to be generous. But there are so many wildcards with this team that make it difficult to predict. Some of these wildcards:
1. how improved will our young core of DLO/JC/Jules/Nance/Black be?
2. Westbrook?
3. how much will Ingram/Zub contribute?
4. what is the net effect of losing Kobe/Hibbert/Bass/Young*** and replacing them with Deng/Moz/Calderon?
I do think we were about a 23-25 win team last year but thanks to the Parking Brake, we won 17 games.
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 5:22 am Post subject: |
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| kikanga wrote: | | dcastillo wrote: | | Inspector Gadget wrote: | | dcarter4kobe wrote: | The only teams in the West we will be competing with are the Suns, Nuggets, and possibly Kings.
Denver
Jokic/Nurkic
Faried/Chandler
Gallo/W.Barton
G.Harris/J.Murrary
Mudiay/Nelson
*Will be getting back a healty Gallo and Chandler+improvement from young guys
Suns
Len/Chandler
Warren/Bender
Dudley/Tucker
Booker/Knight
Bledsoe/Ulis
*Will be getting back a healthy Bledsoe and Knight (and Warren)+improvement from young guys
Kings
WCS/Koufos
Cousins/Casspi
Gay/Barnes
Affalo/McLemore
Collison/Temple
*Cousins is still the best player out of the teams on the bottom
Unlike pass years, I dont think many, if any teams will be going into the season with the idea of tanking. There isnt much parity at the top of the league but there is at the bottom |
I will add Dallas to the list of team the Lakers can potentially be better then. |
Dallas added Barnes and bogut and they were a playoff team last year. Plus Jim Carey is a hell of a coach who knows how to get the best out of vets |
Couple thoughts. Brandon Knight and Bledsoe will be PHX starting backcourt.
Booker has already said he grew an inch this offseason and is preparing to play some SF.
Also I think the Pelicans are a team we can compete against. And I think they'll be worse than PHX. |
I think that Bledsoe/Knight are a hot mess backcourt. They have to trade one and start Booker at SG.
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 5:23 am Post subject: |
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| LakerLanny wrote: | | GreekTrojan wrote: | I agree with ESPN. I've also been right in calling the straight bad seasons of the past few seasons (Bottom 5 roster and bottom 5 coaching will do that). The Lakers have a new coaching staff and still have a bottom 5 roster when you factor out 'upside.' Right now the only teams in the NBA that have objectively worse rosters than the Lakers are The 76ers and the Nets (both in the East and if you really argued for them, you could rank the Nets above the Lakers and I wouldn't think you were insane).
Like all young teams, there is always a chance that players take a leap but its rare for all of the players to do it at the same time (players regress, get injuries, don't improve etc...). The Suns and Nuggets are both just as young and you could argue that their youngsters have shown even more potential than ours (Mudiay, Jokic, Booker etc...). Dallas is on the decline but Carlisle could coach five random posters in this thread to a competitive team. Kings certainly have some combustion potential but they still have Cousins and Gay. Just got to hope we look better (and land a top 3 pick again if were lucky). |
Excellent post and I agree with all of your points except for the last one.
I want top picks as much as the next guy, but I would rather the team finally start to improve...a bottom 3 type season would be frustrating at this point...unless it lead to the much needed changes that need to occur in our basketball operations.
I do think last years team should have been better than 17 wins, they should have been at 22 or 23 minimum, that is why I am trying to tell myself that my prediction of 31 wins for this season is not just being a complete homer. |
This team really needs to show a 30+ win season to be enticing to future FAs in 2017.
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av3773
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 5:32 am Post subject: |
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| Less concerned about wins, more concerned about development and how the team plays together. We're basically the 2015 T wolves, so I think that projection is pretty fair |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 6:18 am Post subject: |
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| av3773 wrote: | | Less concerned about wins, more concerned about development and how the team plays together. We're basically the 2015 T wolves, so I think that projection is pretty fair |
Yeah. If Minny were in Los Angeles, FAs would have flocked there. While I think that KAT/Wiggins/Lavine/Dunn > DLO/JC/Ingram/Jules/Zubac at this moment, I'm hoping that once we start showing progress that top FAs will consider the Lakers.
Also, I think we keep the major trade angle in our pocket until we develop our core first. Could see us getting a top FA in 2017, and with a bunch of young assets, testing the trade market for another star while keeping a few of the young assets around.
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Jim99187
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 6:25 am Post subject: |
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Mine has always been around 25-30 range. Best case scenario win whatever # games and win lottery.
Heck I even dreamed about it, so we are going to win lottery next summer |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 6:53 am Post subject: |
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| Jim99187 wrote: | Mine has always been around 25-30 range. Best case scenario win whatever # games and win lottery.
Heck I even dreamed about it, so we are going to win lottery next summer |
I'm ok with the notion that due to growing pains, new coaching, but overall positive development and team growth, we end up in the lottery and winning it.
I just don't see the team/FO/Luke trying to tank the season. We may end up with 25-30 wins, but there are actually different ways to get there (i.e. playoff team that falters like Pelicans, really good developing team like the TWolves, or straight tanker like the 76ers).
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dcastillo
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 6:54 am Post subject: |
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| Jim99187 wrote: | Mine has always been around 25-30 range. Best case scenario win whatever # games and win lottery.
Heck I even dreamed about it, so we are going to win lottery next summer |
Yea that will do. And draft jayson Tatum 😉 |
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Wilkes52
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 6:57 am Post subject: |
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I've estimated the Laker ceiling myself this year at 31 wins. That's the best possible, as I see it. That's possibly the bottom of the Pacific division anyway.
Not gonna get in a twist about how deep in the cellar our favorite team will finish. It's gonna be better than last year, but guys, this is gonna be a slog all year. Cheer up, it will get better - starting this season.
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ringfinger
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 7:25 am Post subject: |
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30-35 wins. We won't be last IMO, but ESPN has been favorable in their projections on our win totals for years.
Can we just prove them wrong for once on that front? I hope so. |
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2019
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Joined: 03 Dec 2014
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 7:33 am Post subject: |
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| Mozgov and Deng will carry us to 46 wins and a playoff birth. |
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Jim99187
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Joined: 03 Jan 2014
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 7:40 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | Jim99187 wrote: | Mine has always been around 25-30 range. Best case scenario win whatever # games and win lottery.
Heck I even dreamed about it, so we are going to win lottery next summer |
I'm ok with the notion that due to growing pains, new coaching, but overall positive development and team growth, we end up in the lottery and winning it.
I just don't see the team/FO/Luke trying to tank the season. We may end up with 25-30 wins, but there are actually different ways to get there (i.e. playoff team that falters like Pelicans, really good developing team like the TWolves, or straight tanker like the 76ers). |
Oh no, no tanking. |
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Dr. Funkbot
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 7:43 am Post subject: |
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We could get 30 wins and luck out in the Lotto.
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epak
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 7:43 am Post subject: |
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| 2019 wrote: | | Mozgov and Deng will carry us to 46 wins and a playoff birth. |
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GreekTrojan
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:14 am Post subject: |
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| JJin77 wrote: |
I agree.
I thought Mudiay improved a lot after all star break and showed plenty of potential to warrant his 6th pick status, but saying Mudiay > Dlo is all kinds of stupidity.
But to be fair, people can make legitimate case that Booker showed more potential than Dlo. Booker was riding pine to start the season, but when he got the green light after all star break, he put up 10.6 ppg to 19.2 ppg though his TS% went .573 to .503. By same barometer, 12.2 ->15.1 ppg on .502 to .514 TS%. Although Dlo was held back by BS, no doubt, its fair to say that you can't bank on Dlo to outperform Booker's output even if Dlo got the green light. I think it is fair to say Booker and M. Turner had better rookie season.
KAT is different animal altogether. |
People misread my point. My point isn't that Mudiay/Booker/Turner/whoever are better than DLo its that from a neutral perspective there is no compelling reason to think that any of them are more likely to take the leap than the other ones. A lot of the Lakers' optimism is that all of our young guys will improve while everyone else's young guys are overrated/won't improve as much. So while Lakers' fans maybe optimistic about our chances given the circumstances, from a neutral outside perspective it makes since for ESPN to rank the Lakers where they have. |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:16 am Post subject: |
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It'll be an interesting fight at the bottom 5 of the West. A few nascent teams indeed.
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