ESPN Projected 2016-17 records and standings for every NBA team (Lakers last)
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Deathstroke
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2016 6:06 pm    Post subject:

textbook wrote:
Jeeze...when did we become the clippers.


When Kobe tore his achilles.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2016 6:11 pm    Post subject:

Byron "parking break' Scott to Luke "jet fuel" Walton is going to have a monumental impact. In fact, that having been the succession is important too as these player are probably ready to run through a brick wall for Luke after enduring boot camp.

I see them as a 32 win team +|- two wins. The perimeter defense and conference strength will prevent me from doing much better than that though.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2016 6:12 pm    Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:
ESPN with another baseless projection.

Im willing to bet 100$ that the team wins around 35-40 wins and 45-50 if everything clicks.



I would happily pay you $100 if they did that. But I'd most likely take your $100 instead. Let me know if you really want to bet that.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2016 6:17 pm    Post subject:

I'm willing to bet this is a pessimistic projection for these reasons:

#1) Mozgov was the #10 center in 2014-2015 per RPM. He was #70 in 2015-2016. (For reference, he was about #30 in 2013-2014.) Unless you think Mozgov's knees are done, it's very unlikely he hits his horrendous -4.2 RPM mark again, even if he doesn't get close to his +2 RPM from 2014-2015. I'm not sure what kind of return to form ESPN's projection system has for him (I'm sure they expect him to be better somewhat), but I bet it's pessimistic.

#2) Ingram: Without knowing their methodology, I am willing to bet Ingram (who will probably be a plus defender just due to what his length & IQ afford him) is underrated by RPM. Rookies are almost always bad, but Ingram is an exception, I argue. In a way, he's like Nance last year, who also had great RPM numbers because he was good at the limited responsibilities he had.

#3) Russell: So whatever projection system ESPN is using has to hedge against any single player having a "breakout" season, because so many other players don't have it. I don't know how much the system expects Russell to improve next year. This is my opinion, but I think he will have a huge increase in RPM, and I would even argue he's going to hit positive overall RPM (he was pretty badly negative last year) for '16-'17.

#4) Luke: The other thing, and this is one reason for my belief in Russell, is that if you believe Byron was holding players back and putting them in positions to fail (I do, obviously), then having a better coaching staff will inherently make people better. It's where stats fail, as they can't account for the parking brake being lifted. Defensively this applies to any returning player, and offensively I'd say Randle, Russell, and Clarkson are all going to be much better outside of Byron's ISO-heavy schemes.

I think 28-33 or so is reasonable. I don't see why this team can't be around last year's Nuggets or Wolves.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2016 6:28 pm    Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:
ESPN with another baseless projection.

Im willing to bet 100$ that the team wins around 35-40 wins and 45-50 if everything clicks.


I'll take you up on that bet.
It'll be a nice silver lining to lift me out of the dumps if we have a bad season.

And if we hit 35 wins I'll be so happy. I'll gladly pay you.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2016 6:32 pm    Post subject:

put your money where your mouth is 2.0 you got people willing
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2016 6:57 pm    Post subject:

this model has proven extremely accurate in recent years if my recollection is correct....didn't it project the Blazers at like 47 wins last year when everyone else was projecting them to be very bad?
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2016 6:58 pm    Post subject:

lakersfan32 wrote:
Nets projected wins: 28.8
Suns projected wins: 29.2


With Lopez likely getting traded or injured I don't see the Nets winning that many games. They have the least talented roster in the NBA.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2016 7:11 pm    Post subject:

30. Nets 22 wins
29. Sixers 27 wins
28. Suns 29 wins
27. Lakers 32 wins
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Inspector Gadget
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2016 7:22 pm    Post subject:

0514 wrote:
put your money where your mouth is 2.0 you got people willing


I will.

Why is my projection shocking?

We have a great coach in the making.

A phoenom player in Ingram

We have actual vets who can help you win

We have a great coaching staff

Why is my 35 win prediction shocking? Every year ESPN makes predictions and they get some of them right and some of them wrong.

They were off the mark with the Portland prediction... ESPN needs to see how teams stack up in preseason before doing these projections cause they don't even use analytics...
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:21 pm    Post subject:

textbook wrote:
Jeeze...when did we become the clippers.


You mean a team that won't win a title at its franchise peak - even with the Chris Paul gift? A team that even now isn't the team synonymous with LA at the Lakers' absolute low?

We're still not the Clips.

And why is it that 90% of ESPN NBA articles are Insider articles?? Drives me nuts for a "sports news" site!
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:24 pm    Post subject:

They've been correct the last few years but the team has to prove them wrong. I was hopefully optimistic before. Banking on the coaching staff and modern basketball schemes to improve greatly. I won't put out any predictions but the goal of .500 record. That's what we need to strive for this year. It may not happen but it's my personal goal for the team to achieve. I've seen crazier things happen. GO LAKERS
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:39 pm    Post subject:

textbook wrote:
Jeeze...when did we become the clippers.


A few years ago.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:00 pm    Post subject:

Markelle Fultz! Dennis Smith! Harry Giles! I wouldnt complain if we finish bottom 2 again as long as we see improvement and player development. I think 2017-2018 is our year to make a run for the playoffs.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:34 pm    Post subject:

Just for fun, here's ESPN's predictions of the Lakers 07-08 season

J.A. Adande wrote:
PACIFIC: 3 | WEST: 9 Right now they're the wildest card in the deck. With Kobe Bryant they could squeeze into one of the last playoff spots. Without him they're lottery bound. Lamar Odom would become their best player by default, and he's played more than 64 games only once in three years as a Laker.


Greg Anthony wrote:
PACIFIC: 3 | WEST: 8 The cloud hangs over L.A. no matter what happens with Kobe. If he leaves, there's an adjustment period for the new players. If he stays, the question of if, and when, he will be traded will linger. Tough times.


Jon Barry wrote:
PACIFIC: 3 | WEST: 10 Quite miraculous they made playoffs last year. Kobe Bryant and Lamar Odom are not a good tandem -- both are terrific individually -- but sometimes it just doesn't work together. I saw no improvement with Andrew Bynum throughout the year.


Chris Broussard wrote:
PACIFIC: 3 | WEST: 9 If Kobe remains, he still won't be enough to get this crew into the playoffs. Injuries are a problem again, and team chemistry is -- and always will be -- horrible. The good news? Maybe a "to-heck-with-it'' Kobe will entertain us with another 81, or more.


Ric Bucher wrote:
PACIFIC: 3 | WEST: 8 It hurts to see such a proud franchise be reactive, not proactive. Patching it up with Kobe was never going to happen, making the draft the time to trade him. Now they have to make a face-saving deal. Meanwhile, a season is wasted.


Chad Ford wrote:
PACIFIC: 2 | WEST: 9 If Kobe is happy and motivated, the Lakers are probably in line for the seventh seed. But if the melancholy Kobe we've seen in the preseason shows up, the Lakers will be in trouble. Kobe being halfhearted might be the final straw that gets him traded.


Jemele Hill wrote:
PACIFIC: 2 | WEST: 7 Assuming Kobe is still there, the Lakers will be wonderfully mediocre. Thankfully the Smush Parker era is over, but their frontcourt is still an eyesore. Let's see if Kobe makes it to midseason without taking out his frustration on someone.


John Hollinger wrote:
PACIFIC: 2 | WEST: 7 This prediction obviously assumes Kobe stays here all season, which is still where the smart money lies in my estimation. If not, revise this downward by 15 wins or so.


Chris Sheridan wrote:
PACIFIC: 2 | WEST: 9 With or without Kobe, they're no better than a 44-win team. They should be a terrific soap opera, however, so don't fall asleep on them. The clock is ticking on the next Kobe eruption.


Marc Stein wrote:
PACIFIC: 3 | WEST: 8 You have to believe that Kobe, after everything that was said in the offseason, is going to play with a chip on his shoulder so big that every other Laker can hop aboard. But it takes some serious faith to believe that Kobe and his chip will be Laker property for the whole season.


Obviously all the "experts" were wrong - the Lakers ended up going 57-25 that season, ending up as the #1 seed in both the Pacific Division as well as the Western Conference, beat the Carmelo/Iverson Nuggets, the Williams/Boozer Jazz, and the Duncan/Ginobili/Parker Spurs, and made it to the NBA Finals (unfortunately losing to the Celtics in their 1st year of their KG/Pierce/Allen big 3). Everyone remembers that we were able to trade for Pau Gasol, but I think what a lot of people forget is that we were at the top of the West BEFORE the Gasol trade - due in part to the development of the younger players like Bynum, Walton, Vujacic, and Farmar.

This upcoming season certainly is much different from that team. 07-08 was the continuation of Kobe & Odom under Phil Jackson, winning 42 games the year before (and just 34 wins in 2004-05, which at the time felt like rock bottom for the Lakers). The young guys this year are switching to a brand new coach, the loss of the superstar franchise cornerstone, and won just 17 wins last season. However, the fan in me hopes that our young guys will gel and surprise the ESPN "experts" once again...
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:37 pm    Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:
0514 wrote:
put your money where your mouth is 2.0 you got people willing


I will.

Why is my projection shocking?

We have a great coach in the making.

A phoenom player in Ingram

We have actual vets who can help you win

We have a great coaching staff

Why is my 35 win prediction shocking? Every year ESPN makes predictions and they get some of them right and some of them wrong.

They were off the mark with the Portland prediction... ESPN needs to see how teams stack up in preseason before doing these projections cause they don't even use analytics...


I think 35 is a successful and attainable goal.
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Inspector Gadget
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:50 pm    Post subject:

Gomur wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
0514 wrote:
put your money where your mouth is 2.0 you got people willing


I will.

Why is my projection shocking?

We have a great coach in the making.

A phoenom player in Ingram

We have actual vets who can help you win

We have a great coaching staff

Why is my 35 win prediction shocking? Every year ESPN makes predictions and they get some of them right and some of them wrong.

They were off the mark with the Portland prediction... ESPN needs to see how teams stack up in preseason before doing these projections cause they don't even use analytics...


I think 35 is a successful and attainable goal.


Thanks.

I think 35 wins should be our goal but 50 wins as our Mark.

Even if we end up with 25-27 wins... I just want the young guys to tap there potential.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2016 11:12 pm    Post subject:

No way we're worst than the sixers. They will be tanking again to get josh Jackson as they should (or snith) lol

I honestly wouldn't mind tanking again for him as well
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:56 am    Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:
0514 wrote:
put your money where your mouth is 2.0 you got people willing


I will.

Why is my projection shocking?

We have a great coach in the making.

A phoenom player in Ingram

We have actual vets who can help you win

We have a great coaching staff

Why is my 35 win prediction shocking? Every year ESPN makes predictions and they get some of them right and some of them wrong.

They were off the mark with the Portland prediction... ESPN needs to see how teams stack up in preseason before doing these projections cause they don't even use analytics...


So you and I have a bet then?
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 25, 2016 2:27 am    Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:
Gomur wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
0514 wrote:
put your money where your mouth is 2.0 you got people willing


I will.

Why is my projection shocking?

We have a great coach in the making.

A phoenom player in Ingram

We have actual vets who can help you win

We have a great coaching staff

Why is my 35 win prediction shocking? Every year ESPN makes predictions and they get some of them right and some of them wrong.

They were off the mark with the Portland prediction... ESPN needs to see how teams stack up in preseason before doing these projections cause they don't even use analytics...


I think 35 is a successful and attainable goal.


Thanks.

I think 35 wins should be our goal but 50 wins as our Mark.

Even if we end up with 25-27 wins... I just want the young guys to tap there potential.



If the young guys move forward towards the potential most laker fans hope for them down the road, move up a stepping stone this season, and we win 32, it is a very nice push forward. The team gets the new system, and grow into the new culture this season it will be a successful season.

Winning 35 is not out of the realm of possibility, but is reaching I think, but one can hope. 32 is tops as of now IMO...
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 25, 2016 2:36 am    Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:
ESPN with another baseless projection.

Im willing to bet 100$ that the team wins around 35-40 wins and 45-50 if everything clicks.


I'm in the 40-45 win camp myself.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 25, 2016 5:23 am    Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:
ESPN with another baseless projection.

Im willing to bet 100$ that the team wins around 35-40 wins and 45-50 if everything clicks.


How's this, you bet 50 bucks to win 100 of the Lakers win 47 games.

I bet 100 bucks to win 50 if they win less than 47..

Since you already got takers in 35-40 wins I'll leave that one alone.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 25, 2016 5:26 am    Post subject:

cmonkee wrote:


Obviously all the "experts" were wrong - the Lakers ended up going 57-25 that season, ending up as the #1 seed in both the Pacific Division as well as the Western Conference, beat the Carmelo/Iverson Nuggets, the Williams/Boozer Jazz, and the Duncan/Ginobili/Parker Spurs, and made it to the NBA Finals (unfortunately losing to the Celtics in their 1st year of their KG/Pierce/Allen big 3). Everyone remembers that we were able to trade for Pau Gasol, but I think what a lot of people forget is that we were at the top of the West BEFORE the Gasol trade - due in part to the development of the younger players like Bynum, Walton, Vujacic, and Farmar.

This upcoming season certainly is much different from that team. 07-08 was the continuation of Kobe & Odom under Phil Jackson, winning 42 games the year before (and just 34 wins in 2004-05, which at the time felt like rock bottom for the Lakers). The young guys this year are switching to a brand new coach, the loss of the superstar franchise cornerstone, and won just 17 wins last season. However, the fan in me hopes that our young guys will gel and surprise the ESPN "experts" once again...


The difference is the RPM is not the opinions of "talking heads", but a computer model. The only "human" input was in the model design. That being said, everyday a very accurate model predicts sunshine on a rainy day somewhere.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 25, 2016 6:14 am    Post subject:

The issue I have with computer projection s is it does not take into account the human element or intangibles. The player/coach chemistry.

IMO the most significant change this off-season has been the coaching staff. Walton and the rest all seem to be great communicators and have player development strengths.

And from all accounts the players are listening.

Not sure how that element is accounted for with raw stats.

The roster has young players ready to learn and develop and some added vets that are leaders and solid professionals. The roster is much deeper and more versatile then past years and in Walton a HC ready and willing to use it.

I may be way too optimistic but I think the Lakers will be competitive and win over 30 games. IMO 40 games is a long shot possibility if all the "intangibles" fall into place early in the season as I hope they do.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 25, 2016 6:44 am    Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:
ESPN with another baseless projection.

Im willing to bet 100$ that the team wins around 35-40 wins and 45-50 if everything clicks.


ESPN has been overly optimistic in their win total projections for us though.

And $100? Now that's when you know someone really believes. One hondo whole dollars! Haha.

35-40 is our ceiling IMO.
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