Mozgov and Zubac are both susceptible to giving space off the PnR, but at least we have guys like Tarik, Nance, and Randle who can switch or contain off the PnR. Great stuff as usual.
Yeah, if teams exploit Moz/Zub that way, we bring Nance/Black, maybe Randle out to play small ball center.
Is it just me or does Nance Jr. seem like a better small ball center candidate than Jules?
He's more versatile, a better shooter, and generally speaking, a better defender, so he could be. On the other hand, Julius has quick enough feet to be able to make faster switches on defense than Nance if he's willing to do it and properly coached through it. If he could improve that and shooting, I'd say Julius has an edge.
But we're rolling with two/three if's there. I'd roll with Nance for now, but it's not like Julius isn't capable of it if he's groomed properly.
I think you're right on the money here, and I think that Randle should be the coaching staff's #1 priority. Aside from perhaps developing a consistent outside shot, I think Nance is pretty close to what he's going to be. Randle, OTOH, has a lot of "can't teach that" qualities to him that Nance will never have.
It's the coaching staff's job to change Randle from a collection of attributes into a good NBA player. But the clay is there and I think we'd be wise to invest a lot of resources into him. It's a shame that's starting in earnest in his 3rd year.
Yeah, no doubt Jules has a higher ceiling and better talent clay. The question though for me is whether that will be realized into the role that we would need at small ball center. _________________ From 2-10 to the Western Conference Finals
GT can you talk about the mechanical differences between opening up on the roll vs not? I was always taught in HS to open in order to pin the defender, but in watching the video it looks like by not opening you're able to more quickly/explosively enter the roll. What's the decision to make as a coach when teaching to either open up or not?
Joined: 15 Sep 2012 Posts: 29257 Location: La La Land
Posted: Thu Sep 08, 2016 12:47 pm Post subject:
justsomelakerfan wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
The Logo wrote:
Mozgov and Zubac are both susceptible to giving space off the PnR, but at least we have guys like Tarik, Nance, and Randle who can switch or contain off the PnR. Great stuff as usual.
Yeah, if teams exploit Moz/Zub that way, we bring Nance/Black, maybe Randle out to play small ball center.
Is it just me or does Nance Jr. seem like a better small ball center candidate than Jules?
He's more versatile, a better shooter, and generally speaking, a better defender, so he could be. On the other hand, Julius has quick enough feet to be able to make faster switches on defense than Nance if he's willing to do it and properly coached through it. If he could improve that and shooting, I'd say Julius has an edge.
But we're rolling with two/three if's there. I'd roll with Nance for now, but it's not like Julius isn't capable of it if he's groomed properly.
I prefer Randle at the 5 over Nance because he's an elite rebounder. Frustrating watching a team you like go small, get the stop, but then not secure the defensive rebound. But if you play Randle and Nance together they'll both be kind of be a "hybrid 5". Either man could guard the opposing teams 5 depending on matchup. If the opposing 5 is really strong, probably prefer Randle. But if it's a guy like Gobert, maybe prefer Nance. _________________ "Every hurt is a lesson, and every lesson makes you better”
Joined: 02 Jan 2011 Posts: 36081 Location: 502 Bad Gateway
Posted: Thu Sep 08, 2016 1:29 pm Post subject:
GT, the fact that he's great on pick and rolls is good news, but how often is that play really used in the GSW offense? I checked the roll man and ball handler stats and the Warriors were at the bottom of the league.
Last edited by greenfrog on Thu Sep 08, 2016 1:33 pm; edited 2 times in total
Joined: 02 May 2005 Posts: 90304 Location: Formerly Known As 24
Posted: Thu Sep 08, 2016 1:39 pm Post subject:
paolomagma wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
Omar Little wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
dcarter4kobe wrote:
Mozgov was 7th in NBA last season in PPP as the PnR screener (at least 70 attempts). Should help DLo assist #'s go up from about 3.5 to 5
How many times did you scream at the TV when DLO gave a pocket pass to a rolling Hibbert only to see him crumble like a tower being demolished?
Does Mozgov have good hands? I think considering he's a good P&R big man the answer will be yes.
He has excellent hands.
Music to my ears.
I can't wait to see the PG's work with a true big man on the roster.
We have had some big man with bad hands in the past, (Kwame, Hill, Hibbert ) so this is a real blessing.
I think it's also one of the biggest reason why Luke prioritized Mozgov over the likes of Biyombo, Ezeli and Mahinmi.
Out of those mentioned, Mozgov is the strongest finisher. Easy baskets will be needed to keep the D honest. That takes off a lot of defensive pressure on our guards.
I really like the Mozgov acquisition but he'll never live up to his contract. Few bigs do. It's just one of those things we literally have to pay for after being awful these past few years.
I think you're mixing a subjective abstract with an objective reality. If most bigs don't live up to their contract, or to put it another way, if the average big doesn't, then it is your interpretation of the value to production ratiof that is off. If a guy is paid in the norm for his position and performs to the normal range, then he is performing to contract. That some guys over perform doesn't set a new norm. _________________ “We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented.” ― Elie Wiesel
Joined: 02 May 2005 Posts: 90304 Location: Formerly Known As 24
Posted: Thu Sep 08, 2016 1:43 pm Post subject:
greenfrog wrote:
GT, the fact that he's great on pick and rolls is good news, but how often is that play really used in the GSW offense? I checked the roll man and ball handler stats and the Warriors were at the bottom of the league.
There are a number of reasons for this, start8ng with the propensity of their guards to pull up off of picks, the other acti9ns that they run looking more for different shots, and the fact that their bigs aren't typical roll guys. But they do use a ton of screen action that Mozgov will excel at, and his ability to read and dive will fit right in. _________________ “We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented.” ― Elie Wiesel
Joined: 02 Jan 2011 Posts: 36081 Location: 502 Bad Gateway
Posted: Thu Sep 08, 2016 2:00 pm Post subject:
Omar Little wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
GT, the fact that he's great on pick and rolls is good news, but how often is that play really used in the GSW offense? I checked the roll man and ball handler stats and the Warriors were at the bottom of the league.
There are a number of reasons for this, start8ng with the propensity of their guards to pull up off of picks, the other acti9ns that they run looking more for different shots, and the fact that their bigs aren't typical roll guys. But they do use a ton of screen action that Mozgov will excel at, and his ability to read and dive will fit right in.
So if they pull up on the screen/roll that doesn't count as ball handler generated offense?
I think you're mixing a subjective abstract with an objective reality. If most bigs don't live up to their contract, or to put it another way, if the average big doesn't, then it is your interpretation of the value to production ratiof that is off. If a guy is paid in the norm for his position and performs to the normal range, then he is performing to contract. That some guys over perform doesn't set a new norm.
I'm not sure this is true. If the 5 position is simply less impactful, you're better off getting a replacement level 5 (which can be found at the vet min) and then allocating that extra money towards one of the other, (presumably) more impactful positions.
The way you phrased it would be true if each position had its own cap. But since that isn't the case, there is the opportunity cost of signing an average center that may make him overpriced.
GT, the fact that he's great on pick and rolls is good news, but how often is that play really used in the GSW offense? I checked the roll man and ball handler stats and the Warriors were at the bottom of the league.
I don't know what the numbers were in 2015-16, but Golden State set the fewest ball screens of any team in the league in 2014-15, according to this very interesting Vantage Sports article, so you're correct in your observation here. On the flip side, they set the 4th most off ball screens.
By contrast, Cleveland set the 2nd fewest off ball screens. It was hard enough getting usable footage of a guy who played 17mpg, and it was even harder to get good footage of him running an action that they barely ran at all. But as I said in the video, the same attributes that make him effective on the pick & roll make him effective as an off ball screener. I think you're correct about how the screening will manifest itself, but the end result should be be about the same as it relates to Mozgov.
Mozgov was 7th in NBA last season in PPP as the PnR screener (at least 70 attempts). Should help DLo assist #'s go up from about 3.5 to 5
How many times did you scream at the TV when DLO gave a pocket pass to a rolling Hibbert only to see him crumble like a tower being demolished?
Does Mozgov have good hands? I think considering he's a good P&R big man the answer will be yes.
He has excellent hands.
Music to my ears.
I can't wait to see the PG's work with a true big man on the roster.
We have had some big man with bad hands in the past, (Kwame, Hill, Hibbert ) so this is a real blessing.
I think it's also one of the biggest reason why Luke prioritized Mozgov over the likes of Biyombo, Ezeli and Mahinmi.
Out of those mentioned, Mozgov is the strongest finisher. Easy baskets will be needed to keep the D honest. That takes off a lot of defensive pressure on our guards.
I really like the Mozgov acquisition but he'll never live up to his contract. Few bigs do. It's just one of those things we literally have to pay for after being awful these past few years.
Does Biyom and Ezeli have stone hands? I think we know why we didn't want them fumbling every pass from a PG.
Imo, the Lakers two baseline pairings should be deng with Mozgov and Nance with randle, and then mix in short rotations of other combos. Black will need to find a way to be better with someone than those two combos or will simply end up a short rotation guy (maybe the fact that he's a bit of a tweeter who is better against size than randle or Nance right now while possessing more quickness than Mozgov will carve him a niche), and yi will need to stretch the floor on o and play more hard hedge on d, probably next to a rebounder like Randle and with a guy like Ingram providing a bit of back side rim defense from the 3.
I suspect la will mix and match a lot of situational looks and take some time to establish who can do what, but again, I see those first two combos being their bread and butter. Part of me says that the Lakers may end up moving randle for a wing at some point, unless randle blows up offensively and can rotate better on d. If he can shoot a bit on o and can learn to use his quickness on rotations, he and Mozgov could end up working effectively.
Nice that the Lakers finally have some legit options at center.
Moz (Zubac as understudy): huge centers who will clog the paint on defense.
Black: agile big who can PnR
Nance: small ball 5 (not completely sold on Randle playing small ball 5 as his defense is highly suspect on that end).
Yi: pick and pop threat.
I don't fully trust Nance at small ball 5. As athletic as he is and even with his adequate length, he is poor rebounder and not good enough shot blocker that whatever his mobility and pretty good help defense brings might not be enough to make him a plus defender at 5.
GT can you talk about the mechanical differences between opening up on the roll vs not? I was always taught in HS to open in order to pin the defender, but in watching the video it looks like by not opening you're able to more quickly/explosively enter the roll. What's the decision to make as a coach when teaching to either open up or not?
Sorry, didn't see this until now. Yeah, the purpose of a closed roll (for lack of a better term) is to roll more explosively, and extend the period of time in which the roll man is in the window that's created between the two defenders. When you open up, you cross through that window quicker (by virtue of the reverse pivot covering some of that ground), and without your momentum taking your toward the basket.
A player can extend the time that he's in that window even more by making a "banana" cut, looping around to the basket (in the shape of a banana), rather than cutting straight to the rim. Starting your roll by fading away from the ball handler gives the ball handler more time to deliver the pass. The dunks at 1:15 & 1:27 in the video below are examples of that.
GT, can you tell us more on how Mozgov was used in denver?
he looked good in Cavs cause he played alongside Lebron, Irving and love.
all the spacing he got was because of those 3 guys and having a shooter like JR Smith.
i wonder how it would work with us when we have no player that attracts multiple defenders
As critically as this? No, I can't. He was a 55-58 TS% guy in Denver and a 59-62 TS% guy in Cleveland. Of course the shot creators helped, but he's not entirely dependent on them.
GT, can you tell us more on how Mozgov was used in denver?
he looked good in Cavs cause he played alongside Lebron, Irving and love.
all the spacing he got was because of those 3 guys and having a shooter like JR Smith.
i wonder how it would work with us when we have no player that attracts multiple defenders
As critically as this? No, I can't. He was a 55-58 TS% guy in Denver and a 59-62 TS% guy in Cleveland. Of course the shot creators helped, but he's not entirely dependent on them.
Good analysis as usual GT.
With Mozgov being our true main focal point big man, He's gonna have a lot of freedom to show off his skills and offensive moves, he's finally gonna get touches for the first time in his NBA career.
Joined: 02 May 2005 Posts: 90304 Location: Formerly Known As 24
Posted: Thu Sep 08, 2016 11:23 pm Post subject:
tox wrote:
Omar Little wrote:
I think you're mixing a subjective abstract with an objective reality. If most bigs don't live up to their contract, or to put it another way, if the average big doesn't, then it is your interpretation of the value to production ratiof that is off. If a guy is paid in the norm for his position and performs to the normal range, then he is performing to contract. That some guys over perform doesn't set a new norm.
I'm not sure this is true. If the 5 position is simply less impactful, you're better off getting a replacement level 5 (which can be found at the vet min) and then allocating that extra money towards one of the other, (presumably) more impactful positions.
The way you phrased it would be true if each position had its own cap. But since that isn't the case, there is the opportunity cost of signing an average center that may make him overpriced.
If you introduce the variable that the average center is less impactful than the average at another position, and you show that you can both get what you need with a replacement center at the position, and by spending the money elsewhere, then I would agree. But I don't think that's true, which is why even basic centers are expensive. _________________ “We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented.” ― Elie Wiesel
If Moz can retain his above-the-rim explosiveness, you can tell that if you throw the lob near the vicinity of the rim he's catching it. It's not like other lumbering bigs who need to catch and then spring themselves up. _________________ From 2-10 to the Western Conference Finals
I will always say, people assume the center position is done or unneeded or miniscule for 2 reasons
1) The best center in the league is on a team going nowhere.
2) They consider back to the basket dominance and meaningless art, because the dominant back to the basket centers don't / can't play defense.
I guarantee you if Okafor played defense like Drummond he'd be seen as the soon to be heir to the throne that KAT already is being proclaimed as.
You are ignoring the PPP element that shows that other shots are more efficient.
Guarantee you a dominant post player that could play defense would put the kibosh on small ball teams, or at the very least slow them down in the half court set.
Cause no matter who you are, 25/12 is 27/12 be it via 3s or 2s.
If the Thunder had a healthy Marc Gasol they'd have beaten the Warriors in 5 games. Enes and Kanter gave the Warriors nightmares, so a dominant post up center that can play defense would be the bane of what they want to run.
I think KAT/Healthy ADavis will be the look of a 2 way big man going forward.
Post up threats who can't shoot, are terrible FT shooters, constantly exploited on PnRs will be consigned to a lesser role IMO. _________________ From 2-10 to the Western Conference Finals
I will always say, people assume the center position is done or unneeded or miniscule for 2 reasons
1) The best center in the league is on a team going nowhere.
2) They consider back to the basket dominance and meaningless art, because the dominant back to the basket centers don't / can't play defense.
I guarantee you if Okafor played defense like Drummond he'd be seen as the soon to be heir to the throne that KAT already is being proclaimed as.
You are ignoring the PPP element that shows that other shots are more efficient.
Guarantee you a dominant post player that could play defense would put the kibosh on small ball teams, or at the very least slow them down in the half court set.
Cause no matter who you are, 25/12 is 27/12 be it via 3s or 2s.
If the Thunder had a healthy Marc Gasol they'd have beaten the Warriors in 5 games. Enes and Kanter gave the Warriors nightmares, so a dominant post up center that can play defense would be the bane of what they want to run.
DeMarcus Cousins puts up 27/12 and is a good defender. It doesn't mean much.
And if the Thunder had Marc Gasol they wouldn't have been able to switch pick & rolls the way that they did with Adams & Ibaka. Post up bigs aren't the bane of what they want to run, it's bigs who can switch on pick & rolls and do a respectable job on their guards, like Adams & Tristan Thompson did.
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But as I said in the video, the same attributes that make him effective on the pick & roll make him effective as an off ball screener. I think you're correct about how the screening will manifest itself, but the end result should be be about the same as it relates to Mozgov.
