OFFICIAL 2017 FREE AGENCY (Lakers sign Bogut)
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 1:01 pm    Post subject: OFFICIAL 2017 FREE AGENCY (Lakers sign Bogut)

I guess I’ll make this an annual post. 2016 Free Agency is all but over. From initial estimates, it appears the Lakers will have approximately $31-32m in cap space next season according to Basketball Insiders. Of course we can trade pieces, etc., and there’s the possibility we get a top 3 pick too. But operating from that framework, here is what I see:

Projected Salary Cap/Max Contract Tiers: $102m

Edit:

6 years or less: $25.8 mil
7-9 years: $30.1 mil
10+ years: $36.1 mil

(previous estimate)
-22.1m (0-6 years)
-26.5m (7-9 years)
-31m (10+ years)

Projected Lakers Core:

Guards: DLO, JC, Lou (expiring)
Forwards: Ingram, Den, Randle (extension eligible), Nance
Centers: Mozgov, Zubac

Likely leaving the team: Black (non-guaranteed), Yi, Calderon, Huertas, Young (stretch/waive?), Brown.

Needs:

1. Taller combo guard who can defend. While not 3 point shooters, I wouldn’t mind guys like Thabo Sefolosha (age 33 in 2017); Shaun Livingston. Maybe Lakers see MCW as a potential Livingston clone, though he’s a RFA.

2. More shooters. If the Lakers miss out on the premium names, how about a big 1 year deal (2nd year team option which gives the player essentially no-trade powers) to someone like Korver or Reddick.

3. Combo big man who can play small ball center. Black I guess fits this bill, but options like Taj Gibson, Amir Johnson, and a bigger ticket item (Ibaka) may be interesting. Nene may be an option.

BIG NAMES: Curry, KD (Player Option “PO”), CP3 (ETO), Lowry, Blake (ETO), Monroe (PO), Pau (PO), Millsap (PO), Wade (PO), Gallinari (PO), Hayward (PO), Ibaka.

Out of that list, I’m not certain the Lakers have a shot at any of these players. I think they will try to meet with Blake Griffin, and I can see them being interested in Ibaka.

NON BIG-NAMES: Korver, Amir Johnson, Greivis Vasquez, Taj Gibson, Tony Snell (RFA), Andre Iguodala, Nene, CJ Miles (player option), Reddick, MCW (RFA), G.Dieng (RFA), Brandon Rush, Patty Mills, Patrick Patterson, J.Withey

HMM: several interesting players:

-Ibaka: would the Lakers max him out to be our small ball center and/or starting PF (with Randle/Nance still here)? Questions exist about his true age, and his athleticism has been declining.
-Oladipo (RFA): would the Lakers test whether OKC would pay a 22m/year max for Oladipo, not knowing if Westbrook is staying long-term? Likely OKC matches and keeps him so probably a waste of time.
-Hayward: with Ingram’s projected growth, is it wise to dump nearly 27m/year on a non-all star like him?
-MCW (RFA): would the Lakers try to pry him away from the Bucks and make him their Shaun Livingston (albeit more expensive)?

The ultimate question is whether the Lakers will punt cap space into 2018 (Paul George, Boogie, assuming they don't pre-extend). What complicates this equation is that there will be a new CBA in 2017, and we don't know what the rules of the game will be.

Should be a very pivotal and interesting 2017 offseason.

Let's get it on.
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Last edited by yinoma2001 on Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:25 pm; edited 26 times in total
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kikanga
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 1:04 pm    Post subject:

Love for some of the cap experts on LG to explain to me how GS will keep their core together next offseason. Since they signed Durant and didn't sign-and-trade for him, they don't have his bird rights, right?

Will curry and Durant have to take unrealistically large pay cuts?
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 1:08 pm    Post subject:

After Calderon leaves in FA, you throw MCW a RFA offer and see if Milwaukee matches. They are cheap for talented guys that aren't out and out superstars in the making, so they probably won't. If they do not, then you have MCW as your backup 1.

Lou Will can stay on as backup 2 for us.
Luol Deng is our backup 3 as hopefully Ingram makes a leap in the off-season in his game if healthy hopefully

Nance Jr remains backup 4.

Backup 5 remains Zubac or Black if he's earned his second year.

Our depth chart becomes

D'Angelo Russell / Michael Carter-Williams / Marcelo Huertas
Jordan Clarkson / Lou Williams / Anthony Brown
Brandon Ingram / Luol Deng / Nick Young
Julius Randle / Larry Nance Jr
Tomofey Mozgov / Tarik Black / Ivica Zubac

There's our 14 man roster, the only change would be if we moved Young for another 3rd string small forward or a draft pick, but that's about it.


At that point, the Lakers just sit tight, and wait for the 2018 free agency, and they hope that their team progresses the next season to be a playoff team or very close to it, so that they can make their offers/pitches to Cousins and Westbrook whom will only sit down with us if we're a playoff team or close to it, otherwise they'll cold shoulder us just like Whiteside and KD did this off-season.


Last edited by MJST on Tue Sep 20, 2016 1:10 pm; edited 1 time in total
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 1:08 pm    Post subject:

kikanga wrote:
Love for some of the cap experts on LG to explain to me how GS will keep their core together next offseason. Since they signed Durant and didn't sign-and-trade for him, they don't have his bird rights, right?

Will curry and Durant have to take unrealistically large pay cuts?


Not sure of the minutiae but IIRC they will have to use actual cap space to re-sign KD, and Curry's cap hold is less than his max for 2017. The possible casualties are Iggy, Livingston. I wouldn't mind capitalizing on Livingston (as Iggy would be pretty expensive and he would be older).
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 1:09 pm    Post subject:

kikanga wrote:
Love for some of the cap experts on LG to explain to me how GS will keep their core together next offseason. Since they signed Durant and didn't sign-and-trade for him, they don't have his bird rights, right?

Will curry and Durant have to take unrealistically large pay cuts?


You sir, are the first poster on a thread that will probably hit 65k posts and 3.5m views.
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 1:10 pm    Post subject:

MJST wrote:
After Calderon leaves in FA, you throw MCW a RFA offer and see if Milwaukee matches. They are cheap for talented guys that aren't out and out superstars in the making, so they probably won't. If they do not, then you have MCW as your backup 1.

Lou Will can stay on as backup 2 for us.
Luol Deng is our backup 3 as hopefully Ingram makes a leap in the off-season in his game if healthy hopefully

Nance Jr remains backup 4.

Backup 5 remains Zubac or Black if he's earned his second year.



At that point, the Lakers just sit tight, and wait for the 2018 free agency, and they hope that their team progresses the next season to be a playoff team or very close to it, so that they can make their offers/pitches to Cousins and Westbrook whom will only sit down with us if we're a playoff team or close to it, otherwise they'll cold shoulder us just like Whiteside and KD did this off-season.


I'm sort of intrigued with MCW as our Livingston. Can play both guard spots though he's atrocious as a shooter.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 1:11 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
MJST wrote:
After Calderon leaves in FA, you throw MCW a RFA offer and see if Milwaukee matches. They are cheap for talented guys that aren't out and out superstars in the making, so they probably won't. If they do not, then you have MCW as your backup 1.

Lou Will can stay on as backup 2 for us.
Luol Deng is our backup 3 as hopefully Ingram makes a leap in the off-season in his game if healthy hopefully

Nance Jr remains backup 4.

Backup 5 remains Zubac or Black if he's earned his second year.



At that point, the Lakers just sit tight, and wait for the 2018 free agency, and they hope that their team progresses the next season to be a playoff team or very close to it, so that they can make their offers/pitches to Cousins and Westbrook whom will only sit down with us if we're a playoff team or close to it, otherwise they'll cold shoulder us just like Whiteside and KD did this off-season.


I'm sort of intrigued with MCW as our Livingston. Can play both guard spots though he's atrocious as a shooter.


That would be fine, as Livingston can't shoot either, he's effective with his mid range, his getting to the basket and his defense, 3 things MCW does have in spades.

Our depth chart becomes

D'Angelo Russell / Michael Carter-Williams / Marcelo Huertas
Jordan Clarkson / Lou Williams / Anthony Brown
Brandon Ingram / Luol Deng / Nick Young
Julius Randle / Larry Nance Jr
Tomofey Mozgov / Tarik Black / Ivica Zubac

Our bench unit has the potential for both running AND suffocating defense

With MCW, Deng, Nance Jr in it, and potentially Zubac depending on how he progresses, and Black isn't bad either (block of the year for us last season). So that's a potentially deadly 2nd unit.

There's our 14 man roster, the only change would be if we moved Young for another 3rd string small forward or a draft pick, but that's about it.
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kikanga
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 1:16 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
kikanga wrote:
Love for some of the cap experts on LG to explain to me how GS will keep their core together next offseason. Since they signed Durant and didn't sign-and-trade for him, they don't have his bird rights, right?

Will curry and Durant have to take unrealistically large pay cuts?


You sir, are the first poster on a thread that will probably hit 65k posts and 3.5m views.


Yaaaaaay!
You sir, almost have 65K posts yourself. Congrats!
I see what you're doing. You're coming for VLF's crown!
Watch out VLF!
I think you've passed 24 and GT.
1 day Inspector Gadget will pass you, and the circle of life will continue
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MJST
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 1:18 pm    Post subject:

kikanga wrote:
Love for some of the cap experts on LG to explain to me how GS will keep their core together next offseason. Since they signed Durant and didn't sign-and-trade for him, they don't have his bird rights, right?

Will curry and Durant have to take unrealistically large pay cuts?


KD accepts his player option for a 2nd year, and they re-sign Steph with Bird's Rights.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 1:19 pm    Post subject:

can we have the 2017 season start first?
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 1:21 pm    Post subject:

22 wrote:
can we have the 2017 season start first?


I did this around the same time last year. I guess it'll be my annual tradition.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 1:26 pm    Post subject:

MJST wrote:
kikanga wrote:
Love for some of the cap experts on LG to explain to me how GS will keep their core together next offseason. Since they signed Durant and didn't sign-and-trade for him, they don't have his bird rights, right?

Will curry and Durant have to take unrealistically large pay cuts?


KD accepts his player option for a 2nd year, and they re-sign Steph with Bird's Rights.


So it's all on KD. Damn. He'd probably be missing out on a ton of $ taking that option since the cap is going up. Also he's risking getting injured and missing out on years and years of more guaranteed money than he'd have otherwise.

I feel like the main reason why he got the option is so he could cash in.
Hope he at least makes GS sweat. Best case scenario, he makes them pay heavy dough. Lock up that cap space for years to come.
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Last edited by kikanga on Tue Sep 20, 2016 2:11 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 1:27 pm    Post subject:

32M in cap?

I will use it to get Patty Mills and Ibaka.

8M per for Mills and 15M per for Ibaka.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 1:32 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
22 wrote:
can we have the 2017 season start first?


I did this around the same time last year. I guess it'll be my annual tradition.


I think I gave you crap then too, I guess I'll keep the tradition going!
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 1:33 pm    Post subject:

Already? My heart...
I can't wait till the season opener when we beat the Rox.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 3:01 pm    Post subject:

I will be happy with 1 of each from each group

Amir Johson, Taj Gibson
Tony Allen, Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston, Michael Carter Williams

Both on 2y~35M type deals (last year unguaranteed). If Zubac proves to be ready, Zubac/Gibson would be a solid tandem at C.

That's if we want to keep a max slot for 2018. If not Ibaka, JJ Reddick, Gallo, and Hayward would be interesting options if they have interest in us.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 3:03 pm    Post subject:

I would try to trade for MCW with a deal around Lou now.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 3:04 pm    Post subject:

kikanga wrote:
Love for some of the cap experts on LG to explain to me how GS will keep their core together next offseason. Since they signed Durant and didn't sign-and-trade for him, they don't have his bird rights, right?

Will curry and Durant have to take unrealistically large pay cuts?


I am not an expert by any measure, but I think worst case scenario they can use their Non-Bird Exception which is 120% increase (@4 Years) which I dont think will be much less than his max would be under the new cap. Please correct me if I am mistaken on the exception rules.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 3:11 pm    Post subject:

Looking at the Warriors books, they actually wont have any problems at all keeping everyone

KD-31.0M max
Steph-18.2M (cap hold)
Klay 17.8M
Green 16.4M
K.Looney 1.2M
D.James 1.2M
J.McAdoo 1.2M (QO)
Ian Clark 1.0M (cap hold)
J.Thompson-0.9M (stretched)
P.McCaw 0.9M
3 cap holds-1.6M
Total-91.4M

Still 10-11M to find a center or bring back Livingston or Iggy.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 3:23 pm    Post subject:

Make some bench acquisitions and punt for 2018.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 3:33 pm    Post subject:

dcarter4kobe wrote:
I would try to trade for MCW with a deal around Lou now.


What do you think they'd want?
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 3:37 pm    Post subject:

22 wrote:
dcarter4kobe wrote:
I would try to trade for MCW with a deal around Lou now.


What do you think they'd want?


No idea but him and Monroe have been rumored to be on the trading block
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 3:37 pm    Post subject:

Two words: Rudy Gay.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 3:51 pm    Post subject:

Cochese wrote:
Two words: Rudy Gay.


We agree those are two words.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 3:51 pm    Post subject:

dcarter4kobe wrote:
22 wrote:
dcarter4kobe wrote:
I would try to trade for MCW with a deal around Lou now.


What do you think they'd want?


No idea but him and Monroe have been rumored to be on the trading block


And for very good reason. Hard, hard pass on both.
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