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VicXLakers
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kobeslaker
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 Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:49 am Post subject: |
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I just want Lakers play hard and play good next season, so that you can attract other players to join us and screw the c's pick at the same time.
I am sick of that the c's fans saying our pick will be higher than Nets pick, and most of them believed us will end up with bottom two in the league. |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 8:00 am Post subject: |
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Noel apparently turned down a 17.5m/year deal. Interesting. Very insightful as this may be a Jules parallel next summer.
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Bard207
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| Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:42 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | Noel apparently turned down a 17.5m/year deal. Interesting. Very insightful as this may be a Jules parallel next summer. |
I think that Noel was expecting a Max or near Max offer. If he takes a one year contract with expectations of hitting it big next summer, he very well could be disappointed again. After the very top guys get Max contracts, it will be mostly scraps for the rest.
The union messed up by not agreeing to the smoothing proposal last year. |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:43 am Post subject: |
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| Bard207 wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Noel apparently turned down a 17.5m/year deal. Interesting. Very insightful as this may be a Jules parallel next summer. |
I think that Noel was expecting a Max or near Max offer. If he takes a one year contract with expectations of hitting it big next summer, he very well could be disappointed again. After the very top guys get Max contracts, it will be mostly scraps for the rest.
The union messed up by not agreeing to the smoothing proposal last year. |
I'm curious (and sort of interested) in the possibility that Jules will elect to take the QO (IIRC something like 5-6m instead of the 12.5m cap hold), stay on the team, and the Lakers sign him over the cap in 2019.
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Bard207
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| Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:01 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | Bard207 wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Noel apparently turned down a 17.5m/year deal. Interesting. Very insightful as this may be a Jules parallel next summer. |
I think that Noel was expecting a Max or near Max offer. If he takes a one year contract with expectations of hitting it big next summer, he very well could be disappointed again. After the very top guys get Max contracts, it will be mostly scraps for the rest.
The union messed up by not agreeing to the smoothing proposal last year. |
I'm curious (and sort of interested) in the possibility that Jules will elect to take the QO (IIRC something like 5-6m instead of the 12.5m cap hold), stay on the team, and the Lakers sign him over the cap in 2019. |
Depending on all the numbers cranked through the spreadsheet, they might be able to pay him a bit more than $5 - 6 million on a one year deal.
Question:
If he would be worth a five year contract for $80 million next summer, would you be okay for a wink deal of a one year $6 million contract so other business can be done and then go overboard in summer 2019 for a four year deal of $75 million to make him whole?
I haven't looked several years into the future, but doing an underpay and then an overpay to compensate might push them into luxury tax sooner. |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:14 am Post subject: |
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If he would be worth a five year contract for $80 million next summer, would you be okay for a wink deal of a one year $6 million contract so other business can be done and then go overboard in summer 2019 for a four year deal of $75 million to make him whole?
I haven't looked several years into the future, but doing an underpay and then an overpay to compensate might push them into luxury tax sooner. |
Assuming he's "worth" it, wouldn't Jules then just hit the market, and get a team to give him that (thus putting the Lakers to the test)?
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:21 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | Noel apparently turned down a 17.5m/year deal. Interesting. Very insightful as this may be a Jules parallel next summer. |
Noel should jump on that, he won't get more.
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Bard207
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| Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:38 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | Quote: |
If he would be worth a five year contract for $80 million next summer, would you be okay for a wink deal of a one year $6 million contract so other business can be done and then go overboard in summer 2019 for a four year deal of $75 million to make him whole?
I haven't looked several years into the future, but doing an underpay and then an overpay to compensate might push them into luxury tax sooner. |
Assuming he's "worth" it, wouldn't Jules then just hit the market, and get a team to give him that (thus putting the Lakers to the test)? |
I agree that would be the logical thing for him to do unless they (Magic & Pelinka) promised that they would give him an above market contract the following summer to makeup for the shortfall in the near term.
One of the key issues for him signing a below market contract with a promise of a future above market contract is the obvious need for him to get catastrophic insurance that would cover him in case of a serious injury that would put obtaining the future above market contract at risk.
That type of coverage could be expensive and make the concept of him cooperating on a promise for the future unlikely to happen. |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:43 am Post subject: |
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| Bard207 wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Quote: |
If he would be worth a five year contract for $80 million next summer, would you be okay for a wink deal of a one year $6 million contract so other business can be done and then go overboard in summer 2019 for a four year deal of $75 million to make him whole?
I haven't looked several years into the future, but doing an underpay and then an overpay to compensate might push them into luxury tax sooner. |
Assuming he's "worth" it, wouldn't Jules then just hit the market, and get a team to give him that (thus putting the Lakers to the test)? |
I agree that would be the logical thing for him to do unless they (Magic & Pelinka) promised that they would give him an above market contract the following summer to makeup for the shortfall in the near term.
One of the key issues for him signing a below market contract with a promise of a future above market contract is the obvious need for him to get catastrophic insurance that would cover him in case of a serious injury that would put obtaining the future above market contract at risk.
That type of coverage could be expensive and make the concept of him cooperating on a promise for the future unlikely to happen. |
If Jules proved he is worth it, then I can see them trying to trade Deng (get 17m off the books instead of the stretched amount) and trading out JC. that should theoretically give us enough to sign 2 max and meet Jules' cap hold.
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Bard207
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| Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:59 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | Bard207 wrote: |
I agree that would be the logical thing for him to do unless they (Magic & Pelinka) promised that they would give him an above market contract the following summer to makeup for the shortfall in the near term.
One of the key issues for him signing a below market contract with a promise of a future above market contract is the obvious need for him to get catastrophic insurance that would cover him in case of a serious injury that would put obtaining the future above market contract at risk.
That type of coverage could be expensive and make the concept of him cooperating on a promise for the future unlikely to happen. |
If Jules proved he is worth it, then I can see them trying to trade Deng (get 17m off the books instead of the stretched amount) and trading out JC. that should theoretically give us enough to sign 2 max and meet Jules' cap hold. |
The other day, I linked to the story - writeup about limited cap space in 2018 looming just over the horizon. The net cost to move Deng and Clarkson might be two first round picks because of that cap space issue rather than a price gouge the Lakers philosophy by the teams able to do it.
With the 2018 pick already owed, sending out two more first round picks to keep Randle might be more than the FO could stomach. |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:11 pm Post subject: |
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| Bard207 wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Bard207 wrote: |
I agree that would be the logical thing for him to do unless they (Magic & Pelinka) promised that they would give him an above market contract the following summer to makeup for the shortfall in the near term.
One of the key issues for him signing a below market contract with a promise of a future above market contract is the obvious need for him to get catastrophic insurance that would cover him in case of a serious injury that would put obtaining the future above market contract at risk.
That type of coverage could be expensive and make the concept of him cooperating on a promise for the future unlikely to happen. |
If Jules proved he is worth it, then I can see them trying to trade Deng (get 17m off the books instead of the stretched amount) and trading out JC. that should theoretically give us enough to sign 2 max and meet Jules' cap hold. |
The other day, I linked to the story - writeup about limited cap space in 2018 looming just over the horizon. The net cost to move Deng and Clarkson might be two first round picks because of that cap space issue rather than a price gouge the Lakers philosophy by the teams able to do it.
With the 2018 pick already owed, sending out two more first round picks to keep Randle might be more than the FO could stomach. |
I think JC could be moved with a 2nd rounder.
Deng will take at least 1 future 1st, maybe a 2nd 1st rounder (which I would think is costly).
Or, if Jules is balling out, they could elect to move other pieces like Zub/Nance/etc. to carve out space, stretch Deng (if the cost is too high), and trade JC.
Simply put, if Jules is really showing that he's worth keeping, there are several ways to get to his cap hold amount.
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Roon
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| Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:11 pm Post subject: |
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| Bard207 wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Quote: |
If he would be worth a five year contract for $80 million next summer, would you be okay for a wink deal of a one year $6 million contract so other business can be done and then go overboard in summer 2019 for a four year deal of $75 million to make him whole?
I haven't looked several years into the future, but doing an underpay and then an overpay to compensate might push them into luxury tax sooner. |
Assuming he's "worth" it, wouldn't Jules then just hit the market, and get a team to give him that (thus putting the Lakers to the test)? |
I agree that would be the logical thing for him to do unless they (Magic & Pelinka) promised that they would give him an above market contract the following summer to makeup for the shortfall in the near term.
One of the key issues for him signing a below market contract with a promise of a future above market contract is the obvious need for him to get catastrophic insurance that would cover him in case of a serious injury that would put obtaining the future above market contract at risk.
That type of coverage could be expensive and make the concept of him cooperating on a promise for the future unlikely to happen. |
Jules being willing to do the wink wink wink wink wink could be the difference between them being a contender or not.
The difference between him playing with Ball/Ingram/George/Lebron(Boogie/Westbrook) on the Lakers. Living in Los Angeles, the city his daughter was born, the general area he got married(somewhere in socal) and where him and his now wife have built their adult lives the past 4 years.
http://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/2018/
$75mil +$6mil over 5 years would be $16.2 a year.
Team's can obviously make moves like we plan on, but as of right now only 9 teams besides us have space to offer him more than $16 mil a year contract.
Other teams can make moves to clear up space of course, but I've never heard of anyone doing that for a RFA. I'm at work so I'm not going to go through each team but plenty of the below aren't going to have an interest in Randle.
Philly:
Bulls:
Lakers:
Mavs:
Hawks:
Suns:
Nuggets:
Jazz:
Nets:
Rockets: |
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pmacla
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| Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:16 pm Post subject: |
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| one thing that LA has in favor of Randle giving a discount is that his wife loves the LA lifestyle |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:19 pm Post subject: |
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It's just a tough call for a young player, who has already suffered a season ending injury, to sacrifice the security of a long-term deal. It's one thing for an older player like Brook Lopez who has made 95m already and will be over 100m after next year to take a "wink wink" deal.
Or, the market may not give Jules what he wants, and being a RFA, maybe he elects to gamble on himself so he can be a UFA (like what Greg Monroe did).
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Bard207
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| Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:59 pm Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | Bard207 wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Bard207 wrote: |
I agree that would be the logical thing for him to do unless they (Magic & Pelinka) promised that they would give him an above market contract the following summer to makeup for the shortfall in the near term.
One of the key issues for him signing a below market contract with a promise of a future above market contract is the obvious need for him to get catastrophic insurance that would cover him in case of a serious injury that would put obtaining the future above market contract at risk.
That type of coverage could be expensive and make the concept of him cooperating on a promise for the future unlikely to happen. |
If Jules proved he is worth it, then I can see them trying to trade Deng (get 17m off the books instead of the stretched amount) and trading out JC. that should theoretically give us enough to sign 2 max and meet Jules' cap hold. |
The other day, I linked to the story - writeup about limited cap space in 2018 looming just over the horizon. The net cost to move Deng and Clarkson might be two first round picks because of that cap space issue rather than a price gouge the Lakers philosophy by the teams able to do it.
With the 2018 pick already owed, sending out two more first round picks to keep Randle might be more than the FO could stomach. |
I think JC could be moved with a 2nd rounder.
Deng will take at least 1 future 1st, maybe a 2nd 1st rounder (which I would think is costly).
Or, if Jules is balling out, they could elect to move other pieces like Zub/Nance/etc. to carve out space, stretch Deng (if the cost is too high), and trade JC.
Simply put, if Jules is really showing that he's worth keeping, there are several ways to get to his cap hold amount. |
I tinkered with the numbers and probably so provided LeBron isn't one of the incoming free agents. If he wants to sign and will only discount to 34% instead of 35%, then the numbers are a mess.
Dropping Nance and discounts of not quite 1% from the two Max (30%) free agents should be about there on a $102 million salary cap.
Salary Cap
$102,000,000
$30,000,000......Cousins (1)
$30,000,000......Paul George (2)
$7,461,960........Lonzo Ball (3)
$5,757,120........Brandon Ingram (4)
$12,447,727......Julius Randle - Cap Hold (5)
$1,689,840........Kyle Kuzma (6)
$1,655,160........Josh Hart (7)
$1,544,951........Ivica Zubac (8)
$839,542...........Minimum Salary (9)
$839,542...........Minimum Salary (10)
$839,542...........Minimum Salary (11)
$839,542...........Minimum Salary (12)
$7,362,000.........Luol Deng ($36,810,000/5)
$0......................Brook Lopez
$0......................Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
$0......................Jordan Clarkson
$0......................Corey Brewer
$0......................Tyler Ennis
$0......................Thomas Bryant
$0......................Larry Nance Jr.
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$101,276,926 |
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deal
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| Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Bard207 wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Bard207 wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Bard207 wrote: |
I agree that would be the logical thing for him to do unless they (Magic & Pelinka) promised that they would give him an above market contract the following summer to makeup for the shortfall in the near term.
One of the key issues for him signing a below market contract with a promise of a future above market contract is the obvious need for him to get catastrophic insurance that would cover him in case of a serious injury that would put obtaining the future above market contract at risk.
That type of coverage could be expensive and make the concept of him cooperating on a promise for the future unlikely to happen. |
If Jules proved he is worth it, then I can see them trying to trade Deng (get 17m off the books instead of the stretched amount) and trading out JC. that should theoretically give us enough to sign 2 max and meet Jules' cap hold. |
The other day, I linked to the story - writeup about limited cap space in 2018 looming just over the horizon. The net cost to move Deng and Clarkson might be two first round picks because of that cap space issue rather than a price gouge the Lakers philosophy by the teams able to do it.
With the 2018 pick already owed, sending out two more first round picks to keep Randle might be more than the FO could stomach. |
I think JC could be moved with a 2nd rounder.
Deng will take at least 1 future 1st, maybe a 2nd 1st rounder (which I would think is costly).
Or, if Jules is balling out, they could elect to move other pieces like Zub/Nance/etc. to carve out space, stretch Deng (if the cost is too high), and trade JC.
Simply put, if Jules is really showing that he's worth keeping, there are several ways to get to his cap hold amount. |
I tinkered with the numbers and probably so provided LeBron isn't one of the incoming free agents. If he wants to sign and will only discount to 34% instead of 35%, then the numbers are a mess.
Dropping Nance and discounts of not quite 1% from the two Max (30%) free agents should be about there on a $102 million salary cap.
Salary Cap
$102,000,000
$30,000,000......Cousins (1)
$30,000,000......Paul George (2)
$7,461,960........Lonzo Ball (3)
$5,757,120........Brandon Ingram (4)
$12,447,727......Julius Randle - Cap Hold (5)
$1,689,840........Kyle Kuzma (6)
$1,655,160........Josh Hart (7)
$1,544,951........Ivica Zubac (8)
$839,542...........Minimum Salary (9)
$839,542...........Minimum Salary (10)
$839,542...........Minimum Salary (11)
$839,542...........Minimum Salary (12)
$7,362,000.........Luol Deng ($36,810,000/5)
$0......................Brook Lopez
$0......................Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
$0......................Jordan Clarkson
$0......................Corey Brewer
$0......................Tyler Ennis
$0......................Thomas Bryant
$0......................Larry Nance Jr.
___________________
$101,276,926 |
Or place a bet on George, Lonzo, Ingram & Randle while keeping some solid pieces around the core...
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governator
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| Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:11 pm Post subject: |
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| deal wrote: | | Bard207 wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Bard207 wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Bard207 wrote: |
I agree that would be the logical thing for him to do unless they (Magic & Pelinka) promised that they would give him an above market contract the following summer to makeup for the shortfall in the near term.
One of the key issues for him signing a below market contract with a promise of a future above market contract is the obvious need for him to get catastrophic insurance that would cover him in case of a serious injury that would put obtaining the future above market contract at risk.
That type of coverage could be expensive and make the concept of him cooperating on a promise for the future unlikely to happen. |
If Jules proved he is worth it, then I can see them trying to trade Deng (get 17m off the books instead of the stretched amount) and trading out JC. that should theoretically give us enough to sign 2 max and meet Jules' cap hold. |
The other day, I linked to the story - writeup about limited cap space in 2018 looming just over the horizon. The net cost to move Deng and Clarkson might be two first round picks because of that cap space issue rather than a price gouge the Lakers philosophy by the teams able to do it.
With the 2018 pick already owed, sending out two more first round picks to keep Randle might be more than the FO could stomach. |
I think JC could be moved with a 2nd rounder.
Deng will take at least 1 future 1st, maybe a 2nd 1st rounder (which I would think is costly).
Or, if Jules is balling out, they could elect to move other pieces like Zub/Nance/etc. to carve out space, stretch Deng (if the cost is too high), and trade JC.
Simply put, if Jules is really showing that he's worth keeping, there are several ways to get to his cap hold amount. |
I tinkered with the numbers and probably so provided LeBron isn't one of the incoming free agents. If he wants to sign and will only discount to 34% instead of 35%, then the numbers are a mess.
Dropping Nance and discounts of not quite 1% from the two Max (30%) free agents should be about there on a $102 million salary cap.
Salary Cap
$102,000,000
$30,000,000......Cousins (1)
$30,000,000......Paul George (2)
$7,461,960........Lonzo Ball (3)
$5,757,120........Brandon Ingram (4)
$12,447,727......Julius Randle - Cap Hold (5)
$1,689,840........Kyle Kuzma (6)
$1,655,160........Josh Hart (7)
$1,544,951........Ivica Zubac (8)
$839,542...........Minimum Salary (9)
$839,542...........Minimum Salary (10)
$839,542...........Minimum Salary (11)
$839,542...........Minimum Salary (12)
$7,362,000.........Luol Deng ($36,810,000/5)
$0......................Brook Lopez
$0......................Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
$0......................Jordan Clarkson
$0......................Corey Brewer
$0......................Tyler Ennis
$0......................Thomas Bryant
$0......................Larry Nance Jr.
___________________
$101,276,926 |
Or place a bet on George, Lonzo, Ingram & Randle while keeping some solid pieces around the core... |
Boogie/min/min vs Lopez/JC/Nance |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:12 pm Post subject: |
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Man, would rather not lose Nance though.
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Bard207
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| Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:14 pm Post subject: |
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| deal wrote: |
Or place a bet on George, Lonzo, Ingram & Randle while keeping some solid pieces around the core... |
Yes, but the premise that I am operating under is that they will be going for two incoming Max free agents based on their statements and actions over the past few months. |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:17 pm Post subject: |
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| Bard207 wrote: | | deal wrote: |
Or place a bet on George, Lonzo, Ingram & Randle while keeping some solid pieces around the core... |
Yes, but the premise that I am operating under is that they will be going for two incoming Max free agents based on their statements and actions over the past few months. |
Agreed. We're likely getting a tampering fine soon too. They're going 2 max or bust IMO. Thankfully there are at least 4-5 max targets this summer that are plausible.
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deal
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| Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:39 pm Post subject: |
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| Bard207 wrote: | | deal wrote: |
Or place a bet on George, Lonzo, Ingram & Randle while keeping some solid pieces around the core... |
Yes, but the premise that I am operating under is that they will be going for two incoming Max free agents based on their statements and actions over the past few months. |
Thanks, yep, got it.
I was wondering whats best; force the 2 Max players plus the absolute core Vs having one Max, plus a strong core and bench...
but I now get the premise....tks
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Bard207
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| Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:45 pm Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | Man, would rather not lose Nance though. |
In a scenario with Cousins & Paul George, the depth chart looks funky if they keep Nance.
Something similar to this:
Cousins, Zubac, Randle
Randle, Kuzma, Nance
Ingram, Kuzma, Paul George
Paul George, ?
Ball, ?
Paul George, youngsters and Minimum Salary players at SF, SG and PG.
Not that Hart has demonstrated anything yet, but they are going to have a huge learning curve to overcome at the wing positions.
They will be lacking a decent veteran SG/SF 3&D coming off the bench. The backup PG is likely to be on a bargain contract. Even with a Room Exception to use, experienced quality depth on the wings is going to be a problem.
Rande and Cousins? are going to need to jump another level on defense because expect some breakdowns on perimeter defense because of the limited experience for the wings beyond Paul George. |
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Roon
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Posts: 1816
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| Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Bard207 wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Man, would rather not lose Nance though. |
In a scenario with Cousins & Paul George, the depth chart looks funky if they keep Nance.
Something similar to this:
Cousins, Zubac, Randle
Randle, Kuzma, Nance
Ingram, Kuzma, Paul George
Paul George, ?
Ball, ?
Paul George, youngsters and Minimum Salary players at SF, SG and PG.
Not that Hart has demonstrated anything yet, but they are going to have a huge learning curve to overcome at the wing positions.
They will be lacking a decent veteran SG/SF 3&D coming off the bench. The backup PG is likely to be on a bargain contract. Even with a Room Exception to use, experienced quality depth on the wings is going to be a problem.
Rande and Cousins? are going to need to jump another level on defense because expect some breakdowns on perimeter defense because of the limited experience for the wings beyond Paul George. |
Lol Deng would be in there somewhere if we stretch him yes? |
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Bard207
Star Player
Joined: 08 Jan 2013
Posts: 7713
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| Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:56 pm Post subject: |
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| deal wrote: | | Bard207 wrote: | | deal wrote: |
Or place a bet on George, Lonzo, Ingram & Randle while keeping some solid pieces around the core... |
Yes, but the premise that I am operating under is that they will be going for two incoming Max free agents based on their statements and actions over the past few months. |
Thanks, yep, got it.
I was wondering whats best; force the 2 Max players plus the absolute core Vs having one Max, plus a strong core and bench...
but I now get the premise....tks |
I understand the pros and cons of:
1. Bringing in two Max players in their late 20's - early 30's
2. Bringing in one Max player and taking a slower path via internal growth.
Based on various factors such as statements, actions and temperament/makeup of the people at the top of the org chart, I think that #1 is the path that is going to be taken. If the winds start blowing in a different direction, I will adjust and start posting to be in synch with the new Plan which would be #2 or similar. |
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