Vegas Over/Under Wins
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TheBlackMamba
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 11:16 am    Post subject: Vegas Over/Under Wins

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http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/vegas-releases-2016-17-nba-season-overunder-win-totals-for-every-team/

24.5 for us. To give some context, that's 2nd worst behind Brooklyn at 20.5, and the Sixers and Suns are at 27.5 and 26.5, respectively.

I think it's a load of BS, TBH, not that it matters much in the grand scheme of things. We've said the same in the last few years, and Vegas/the media turned out to be right in the end. But I do think this year is different (maybe I'm being a naive sports fan?), in that we have SEVERAL factors going in our favor which everyone outside of Laker fans is ignoring.

1) Byron Scott is no longer employed by the team - nuff' said. (isn't this worth 10 wins by itself? )

2) Luke Walton is the new head coach. This doesn't necessarily guarantee wins, but we can reasonably expect that the team will play a more free-flowing, team-oriented style of basketball with the most ball movement we've seen since the Triangle days with Phil (I choose to erase the D'Antoni days from my memory). Going one step further, I think we can also expect the team to play harder for a younger coach who listens to them and can relate. And player development will be a point of emphasis with the new staff, so we're actually going to see the young players get better during the year (what a novel concept!), rather than (bleep) around with, put in the dog house occasionally, and have their growth curves become stagnant by season end.

3) DLo is ready. This is more of my personal expectations now, but from everything we've seen this summer from him, DLo is ready to captain Luke's new offense and assume that lead scorer/playmaker role. The media and general public may be down on him and focus on all the wrong (bleep), but we know how hard he's worked and that he's capable of taking that next step into the upper echelon class of NBA guards.

4) Deng will be a great mentor for the kids. As one of the most underrated FA acquisitions of the summer, I think his fit as a veteran, hard-working, two-way presence is perfect for this young team. Luke's going to tell them how to play winning basketball, but Deng is the one that will lead by example. And outside of his mentorship, the dude can still play ball, too - he's not quite past his prime just yet.

5) Everything else - no more Kobe Bryant farewell tour, Brandon Ingram (I don't think even we know how good this kid is going to be yet, and how soon it may end up happening...), Year 3 for Clarkson/Randle, Nance's unforeseen development into a hyperactive, do-it-all forward/small ball center, Moz, Zublocka, YI...

I can't wait till these guys show everyone what the so-called "analysts" missed - it's going to be so much sweeter with all the doubt and haters getting their last shots in now. 5 DAYS
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venturalakersfan
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:24 pm    Post subject:

That is pretty much where I stand. I think replacing Byron adds 10 wins, losing Kobe subtracts 4 wins, development of the young players adds 3 wins, FA additions add 3 wins.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:26 pm    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
That is pretty much where I stand. I think replacing Byron adds 10 wins, losing Kobe subtracts 4 wins, development of the young players adds 3 wins, FA additions add 3 wins.


You think Kobe was a positive on the court last year?
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:27 pm    Post subject:

O/U should be 35.

But I can live with 24 cause it's more easier not to lose money if you bet the under or over.
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KindCrippler2000
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:29 pm    Post subject:

This is just more bulletin board material for them.

venturalakersfan wrote:
That is pretty much where I stand. I think replacing Byron adds 10 wins, losing Kobe subtracts 4 wins, development of the young players adds 3 wins, FA additions add 3 wins.


You've got it backwards - losing Kobe adds more wins.
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greenfrog
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:29 pm    Post subject:

One thing to remember, Vegas is Laker country. A lot of regular folk will see that line and bet with their hearts on the over.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:37 pm    Post subject:

dcarter4kobe wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
That is pretty much where I stand. I think replacing Byron adds 10 wins, losing Kobe subtracts 4 wins, development of the young players adds 3 wins, FA additions add 3 wins.


You think Kobe was a positive on the court last year?


Kobe won games for us that we wouldn't have won without him.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:40 pm    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
dcarter4kobe wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
That is pretty much where I stand. I think replacing Byron adds 10 wins, losing Kobe subtracts 4 wins, development of the young players adds 3 wins, FA additions add 3 wins.


You think Kobe was a positive on the court last year?


Kobe won games for us that we wouldn't have won without him.


He also cost us games by making dumb mistakes at crunch time.I don't see why you would suggest otherwise.
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tox
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 5:54 pm    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
dcarter4kobe wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
That is pretty much where I stand. I think replacing Byron adds 10 wins, losing Kobe subtracts 4 wins, development of the young players adds 3 wins, FA additions add 3 wins.


You think Kobe was a positive on the court last year?


Kobe won games for us that we wouldn't have won without him.


Something I've thought about as well. I'm not sure how many games we'd have won replacing him with a Wes Johnson type player. I can think of the Philly game after he announced his retirement, but that's it off the top of my head.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:15 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
dcarter4kobe wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
That is pretty much where I stand. I think replacing Byron adds 10 wins, losing Kobe subtracts 4 wins, development of the young players adds 3 wins, FA additions add 3 wins.


You think Kobe was a positive on the court last year?


Kobe won games for us that we wouldn't have won without him.


Something I've thought about as well. I'm not sure how many games we'd have won replacing him with a Wes Johnson type player. I can think of the Philly game after he announced his retirement, but that's it off the top of my head.

there was this one game in april he went nuts in the 4th quarter to bring us back too
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:18 pm    Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
dcarter4kobe wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
That is pretty much where I stand. I think replacing Byron adds 10 wins, losing Kobe subtracts 4 wins, development of the young players adds 3 wins, FA additions add 3 wins.


You think Kobe was a positive on the court last year?


Kobe won games for us that we wouldn't have won without him.


He also cost us games by making dumb mistakes at crunch time.I don't see why you would suggest otherwise.

First time I'm agreeing with Deuces.
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:39 pm    Post subject:

Sounds about right, they play in the western conference.....now if they play in the east the win total would probably be in the high 20's, low 30's.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:54 pm    Post subject:

frenchbullcho wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
dcarter4kobe wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
That is pretty much where I stand. I think replacing Byron adds 10 wins, losing Kobe subtracts 4 wins, development of the young players adds 3 wins, FA additions add 3 wins.


You think Kobe was a positive on the court last year?


Kobe won games for us that we wouldn't have won without him.


He also cost us games by making dumb mistakes at crunch time.I don't see why you would suggest otherwise.

First time I'm agreeing with Deuces.


We are slowly building that chemistry.
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defense
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 9:05 pm    Post subject:

I would bet over and collect easy money
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 9:14 pm    Post subject:

frenchbullcho wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
dcarter4kobe wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
That is pretty much where I stand. I think replacing Byron adds 10 wins, losing Kobe subtracts 4 wins, development of the young players adds 3 wins, FA additions add 3 wins.


You think Kobe was a positive on the court last year?


Kobe won games for us that we wouldn't have won without him.


He also cost us games by making dumb mistakes at crunch time.I don't see why you would suggest otherwise.

First time I'm agreeing with Deuces.


Wow. Deuces keeping it real!

I dont think it was the crunch time thing. More so on the defensive end, and the poor offensive efficiencies. Plus, the constant iso ball to keep him fed. He was a plus in terms of working with our guys but the rest of it plus overall KFT distraction was a net negative for the young guys.

I think its a weight off the young guys shoulders for sure so we'll see how they respond this year.
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dcarter4kobe
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 9:31 pm    Post subject:

I went back and looked at Kobe game logs. He was a plus in maybe 6 or 7 in the Lakers 17 wins
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 9:35 pm    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
frenchbullcho wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
dcarter4kobe wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
That is pretty much where I stand. I think replacing Byron adds 10 wins, losing Kobe subtracts 4 wins, development of the young players adds 3 wins, FA additions add 3 wins.


You think Kobe was a positive on the court last year?


Kobe won games for us that we wouldn't have won without him.


He also cost us games by making dumb mistakes at crunch time.I don't see why you would suggest otherwise.

First time I'm agreeing with Deuces.


Wow. Deuces keeping it real!

I dont think it was the crunch time thing. More so on the defensive end, and the poor offensive efficiencies. Plus, the constant iso ball to keep him fed. He was a plus in terms of working with our guys but the rest of it plus overall KFT distraction was a net negative for the young guys.

I think its a weight off the young guys shoulders for sure so we'll see how they respond this year.


Good post.

ISO offense was a major problem more so then defense.... I mean it's hard winning games at the end when the ball is on the hands of 1 player. And a broken down player no less.
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tox
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 10:15 pm    Post subject:

cKPayasoLoco wrote:
tox wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
dcarter4kobe wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
That is pretty much where I stand. I think replacing Byron adds 10 wins, losing Kobe subtracts 4 wins, development of the young players adds 3 wins, FA additions add 3 wins.


You think Kobe was a positive on the court last year?


Kobe won games for us that we wouldn't have won without him.


Something I've thought about as well. I'm not sure how many games we'd have won replacing him with a Wes Johnson type player. I can think of the Philly game after he announced his retirement, but that's it off the top of my head.

there was this one game in april he went nuts in the 4th quarter to bring us back too

No, you misunderstand me. He had several games where he was good and got us wins when we shouldn't have. His finale is a particularly notable example.

The question is, how many losses did he get us in games we should have won? Because we sucked regardless, Kobe's 6-19 shooting might not have really made a difference even though it is a negative. So those games don't count. However, in Philly we should have won except Kobe kept jacking up (and missing) 3 after 3, so we lost to an 0-28 team (or whatever they were). How many games like that Philly game were there?

It's certainly within the realm of possibility that he overall contributed more wins, just because he won us games we shouldn't have won and then sucked in games we'd have lost anyways.

Personally I still think he cost us wins even factoring this logic. But that's just a baseless speculation.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 10:31 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
cKPayasoLoco wrote:
tox wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
dcarter4kobe wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
That is pretty much where I stand. I think replacing Byron adds 10 wins, losing Kobe subtracts 4 wins, development of the young players adds 3 wins, FA additions add 3 wins.


You think Kobe was a positive on the court last year?


Kobe won games for us that we wouldn't have won without him.


Something I've thought about as well. I'm not sure how many games we'd have won replacing him with a Wes Johnson type player. I can think of the Philly game after he announced his retirement, but that's it off the top of my head.

there was this one game in april he went nuts in the 4th quarter to bring us back too

No, you misunderstand me. He had several games where he was good and got us wins when we shouldn't have. His finale is a particularly notable example.

The question is, how many losses did he get us in games we should have won? Because we sucked regardless, Kobe's 6-19 shooting might not have really made a difference even though it is a negative. So those games don't count. However, in Philly we should have won except Kobe kept jacking up (and missing) 3 after 3, so we lost to an 0-28 team (or whatever they were). How many games like that Philly game were there?

It's certainly within the realm of possibility that he overall contributed more wins, just because he won us games we shouldn't have won and then sucked in games we'd have lost anyways.

Personally I still think he cost us wins even factoring this logic. But that's just a baseless speculation.


This post is pure logic.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 11:44 pm    Post subject: Vegas wins help please

I have never gambled before. I see that vegas has the Lakers at 24.5. I would put money on the "over"... But how much do I win depending on what I put up?.are there also odds attached to the prediction?

Please let me know how this works, I cant find anything online! Thank you all!!
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 22, 2016 12:11 am    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
dcarter4kobe wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
That is pretty much where I stand. I think replacing Byron adds 10 wins, losing Kobe subtracts 4 wins, development of the young players adds 3 wins, FA additions add 3 wins.


You think Kobe was a positive on the court last year?


Kobe won games for us that we wouldn't have won without him.

Kobe was one of the worst players in the league last year. Obviously not in terms of talent but when you have someone with the vomit-inducing efficiency he had taking up a HUGE portion of your offense; that causes a lot more harm to your team than some scrub waving towels at the end of the bench.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 22, 2016 6:08 am    Post subject:

I'm running with 24.5! that's an easy bet.
I've seen 30 as the number. Now that would be a little tougher, but I'd still take the over!
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 22, 2016 6:36 am    Post subject:

Free_Kobe wrote:
I'm running with 24.5! that's an easy bet.
I've seen 30 as the number. Now that would be a little tougher, but I'd still take the over!


Where did you see the 30 O/U? I think the real O/U for the Lakers is 35. But 24 is more on the safer side.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:09 am    Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:
tox wrote:
cKPayasoLoco wrote:
tox wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
dcarter4kobe wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
That is pretty much where I stand. I think replacing Byron adds 10 wins, losing Kobe subtracts 4 wins, development of the young players adds 3 wins, FA additions add 3 wins.


You think Kobe was a positive on the court last year?


Kobe won games for us that we wouldn't have won without him.


Something I've thought about as well. I'm not sure how many games we'd have won replacing him with a Wes Johnson type player. I can think of the Philly game after he announced his retirement, but that's it off the top of my head.

there was this one game in april he went nuts in the 4th quarter to bring us back too

No, you misunderstand me. He had several games where he was good and got us wins when we shouldn't have. His finale is a particularly notable example.

The question is, how many losses did he get us in games we should have won? Because we sucked regardless, Kobe's 6-19 shooting might not have really made a difference even though it is a negative. So those games don't count. However, in Philly we should have won except Kobe kept jacking up (and missing) 3 after 3, so we lost to an 0-28 team (or whatever they were). How many games like that Philly game were there?

It's certainly within the realm of possibility that he overall contributed more wins, just because he won us games we shouldn't have won and then sucked in games we'd have lost anyways.

Personally I still think he cost us wins even factoring this logic. But that's just a baseless speculation.


This post is pure logic.


And it disagrees with what you posted.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 22, 2016 10:04 am    Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
dcarter4kobe wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
That is pretty much where I stand. I think replacing Byron adds 10 wins, losing Kobe subtracts 4 wins, development of the young players adds 3 wins, FA additions add 3 wins.


You think Kobe was a positive on the court last year?


Kobe won games for us that we wouldn't have won without him.


He also cost us games by making dumb mistakes at crunch time.I don't see why you would suggest otherwise.


Kobe helped us more than hurt us.
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