Vegas Over/Under Wins
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kikanga
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:48 pm    Post subject:

Tark the Shark wrote:
This is sucker bet. Vegas is smarter than all of us. Take the under. It's actually 25 now so you get an extra half game.


It's crazy to think there is equal action on both sides of the line.
Over 25 seems more likely than not IMO.
But I'm gonna go through the schedule and pick out the 25 individual wins. Maybe some of the beatable teams I'm thinking of are actual losses due to schedule. Like we're playing the Magic the 4th game in 5 nights or something.
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:03 pm    Post subject:

kikanga wrote:
Tark the Shark wrote:
This is sucker bet. Vegas is smarter than all of us. Take the under. It's actually 25 now so you get an extra half game.


It's crazy to think there is equal action on both sides of the line.
Over 25 seems more likely than not IMO.
But I'm gonna go through the schedule and pick out the 25 individual wins. Maybe some of the beatable teams I'm thinking of are actual losses due to schedule. Like we're playing the Magic the 4th game in 5 nights or something.


this year we'll get our fair share of upsets as well - catching some of the upper echelon teams on back to backs, long road trips. younger legs will work in our favor on some nights against the more seasoned teams.
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LakerMindLA
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:34 pm    Post subject:

golaker wrote:
Teams in the west that are better:

Warriors, Spurs, Clippers, Rockets, Thunder, Grizzlies, Jazz, Timberwolves, Pelicans, Blazers

Teams that are equal/beatable:

Nuggets, mavs, kings, suns

Teams in the east that are better:

Cavs, Heat, Pacers, Bulls, Raptors, Celtics, Bucks, Hornets, Pistons, Wizards, Knicks

Teams that are equal/beatable: Magic, 76ers, Hawks, Nets

By my logic, we have 16 wins against the west, and 8 wins against the east, which puts us precisely at 24 wins, which is exactly where vegas has us, coincidentally.

Coaching will be the difference if we're able to overachieve. Hopefully Luke can bring the team together quickly.


I think you have to take home and away into consideration here.

If we won all our home games against the 8 teams listed above, that gives us 12 wins. I would probably add the Pelicans and Bucks to the list. So that is closer to 15 wins.

We will then win a handful of games we shouldn't win and those most likely come at home.

If you look at the Lakers schedule and compare our roster to other teams, it is hard to find 30 wins this year.
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Tark the Shark
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:18 am    Post subject:

kikanga wrote:
Tark the Shark wrote:
This is sucker bet. Vegas is smarter than all of us. Take the under. It's actually 25 now so you get an extra half game.


It's crazy to think there is equal action on both sides of the line.
Over 25 seems more likely than not IMO.
But I'm gonna go through the schedule and pick out the 25 individual wins. Maybe some of the beatable teams I'm thinking of are actual losses due to schedule. Like we're playing the Magic the 4th game in 5 nights or something.



Around 25-27 would be a nice goal. For all the great new things with the team, they still have to have on court chemistry. That's why I think 30 is a great stretch goal. Those saying 35 are being true homers.

The opening line of 24.5 must have had at least a half game baked in on the plus for the home team. More money has come in on the over so it's now 25. The heart says over but the smart money is the under. I also want to see where 538 comes in. They were more accurate than Vegas last season.
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:46 am    Post subject:

golaker wrote:
Teams in the west that are better:

Warriors, Spurs, Clippers, Rockets, Thunder, Grizzlies, Jazz, Timberwolves, Pelicans, Blazers

Teams that are equal/beatable:

Nuggets, mavs, kings, suns

Teams in the east that are better:

Cavs, Heat, Pacers, Bulls, Raptors, Celtics, Bucks, Hornets, Pistons, Wizards, Knicks

Teams that are equal/beatable: Magic, 76ers, Hawks, Nets

By my logic, we have 16 wins against the west, and 8 wins against the east, which puts us precisely at 24 wins, which is exactly where vegas has us, coincidentally.

Coaching will be the difference if we're able to overachieve. Hopefully Luke can bring the team together quickly.


I would add NY, my reasoning is that Rose's off court issues is gonna cloud the team and there team doesn't Impress me, and they are likely 1-2 injuries from completely falling apart.. Noah is already hurt.
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:59 pm    Post subject:

The clippers impending implosion --> +4 games
No Ben Simmons --> +1 game
Westbrook upcoming suspension (book it) --> +1 game

Sounds like 30 to me!
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:26 pm    Post subject:

Game 2 of pre season and Luke is showing an agenda, starting Lou and MWP. With the right productive people on the court, this team is exciting, impressive, and far from a lame 25-30 win squad. There's too many quality and improved players. Clarkson and Russell are going to be special, while they have good support coming from all over their squad.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 08, 2016 8:02 am    Post subject:

lakersboy wrote:
Game 2 of pre season and Luke is showing an agenda, starting Lou and MWP. With the right productive people on the court, this team is exciting, impressive, and far from a lame 25-30 win squad. There's too many quality and improved players. Clarkson and Russell are going to be special, while they have good support coming from all over their squad.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 09, 2016 9:25 pm    Post subject:

No way O/U should be 24, It should be 35 at least.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2016 8:23 am    Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:
No way O/U should be 24, It should be 35 at least.


Vegas would look like Atlantic City with oddsmaking like that.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2016 9:14 am    Post subject:

Tark the Shark wrote:
This is sucker bet. Vegas is smarter than all of us. Take the under. It's actually 25 now so you get an extra half game.


That's not how it works, Vegas sets the line to get as close to even over and under bets, then makes money on the juice. That is why they are often pretty accurate, if they miss big one way or the other they lose big.
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P.K.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2016 10:38 am    Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:
No way O/U should be 24, It should be 35 at least.

Calm down..
we beat the Nuggets, who are one of the worst teams in the West
and, it was a preseason game
they got a long ways to go yet
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2016 10:42 am    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
Tark the Shark wrote:
This is sucker bet. Vegas is smarter than all of us. Take the under. It's actually 25 now so you get an extra half game.


That's not how it works, Vegas sets the line to get as close to even over and under bets, then makes money on the juice. That is why they are often pretty accurate, if they miss big one way or the other they lose big.

and they move the line so that the money balances out.

vegas only sets the initial line. Once the betting starts, it moves up/down in relation to the bets coming in from the general public.
So, once the initial bets are in, Vegas isn't setting the line anymore - the public is setting it through how they bet.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2016 10:42 am    Post subject:

P.K. wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
No way O/U should be 24, It should be 35 at least.

Calm down..
we beat the Nuggets, who are one of the worst teams in the West
and, it was a preseason game
they got a long ways to go yet
Vegas odds > deuce.
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Inspector Gadget
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2016 11:31 am    Post subject:

Vancouver Fan wrote:
P.K. wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
No way O/U should be 24, It should be 35 at least.

Calm down..
we beat the Nuggets, who are one of the worst teams in the West
and, it was a preseason game
they got a long ways to go yet
Vegas odds > that guy.


Were you crying when you made that post ?
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2016 9:01 pm    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
Tark the Shark wrote:
This is sucker bet. Vegas is smarter than all of us. Take the under. It's actually 25 now so you get an extra half game.


That's not how it works, Vegas sets the line to get as close to even over and under bets, then makes money on the juice. That is why they are often pretty accurate, if they miss big one way or the other they lose big.


I understand that and Vegas takes into consideration that the Lakers are a local team and more money will come in on the over. They need the out of towners to take the under which is the better betting value.

LG thinks the 24.5 is low and some even think 35 is a very realistic number.
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kikanga
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 23, 2016 10:10 am    Post subject:

538 has us winning 25 games as well 3% chance of making the playoffs.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/

They're probably in the right ballpark in terms of projected wins for us this season.
But I think they overrated the Wolves and Jazz. And underrated Memphis a TON.
I agree OKC, POR, AND HOU are playoff teams. But I think Memphis will have a better record than 1 or 2 of those playoff teams this year.
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 23, 2016 10:39 am    Post subject:

The most common answer I've read online is people predicting the Lakers to get 27 wins this season.
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