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Snipes
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2016 9:48 am    Post subject:

Cespedes/Stanton cost way too much for what they give you in return. Zaidi/Friedman are never going to overpay for power bats to appease the fans. That's not how this FO works. If that was the case, Hanley and Kemp might still be here.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:12 pm    Post subject:

^^^

With Stanton there's also the fact that in 5 years, he's averaged 115 games a season. 1 or 2 injury riddled years you can chalk up to bad luck. 5 straight years? That's probably who you are...13 years/352 million, backloaded to boot for a guy that plays 70% of the season? Awful, awful contract.

There's only one guy you empty the coffers to that degree for and he plays in Anaheim.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:26 pm    Post subject:

Snipes wrote:
Cespedes/Stanton cost way too much for what they give you in return. Zaidi/Friedman are never going to overpay for power bats to appease the fans. That's not how this FO works. If that was the case, Hanley and Kemp might still be here.


Hanley, although he played a decent first base for Boston this year, had lost the ability to play the infield for the Dodgers, which was the biggest reason that they made no attempt to re-sign him (and they had A-Gone at first base anyway). Kemp, meanwhile, has become one of the worst defensive outfielders of the past 20 years, and needs to be a DH in the AL. Cespedes adds defensive value, so that's a difference.

That said, I think the smart money is on the Dodgers eschewing a Cespedes signing if they can simply flip Puig for Braun. In a vacuum I prefer Cespedes, but he might get twice as much money and more years. Cespedes is probably going to command at least 5 years and at least $150MM, while Braun only has 4 years and $76MM left on his deal. If Puig is the only thing it costs to get Braun, I'm guessing the Dodgers would rather go that route. In looking at Braun's numbers, his performance has improved in each of the past 3 seasons, following his 2013 season where he missed most of the year. Perhaps as he's gotten further and further away from the steroid stuff, his body has slowly returned to its "normal" form. In any case, his OPS has gone from .777 in 2014 to .854 in '15 to .903 last season. And he doesn't have wild home/road splits like most Colorado hitters; his career home OPS is .925, but he's put up a strong .897 road mark. His defensive WAR has also improved in each of the past 3 seasons, going from -1.6 to -0.8 to 0.0, again suggesting that perhaps his body has recovered from his 2013 self. And while he's missed 27, 22, and 27 games in the past 3 seasons, Cespedes missed 30 games this past season. Braun also out-paced Cespedes in WAR in each of the last 2 seasons, and is only 1 year older.

In short, Braun has a longer track record, might cost half as much in money and less years to commit to, and is only 1 year older.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2016 3:56 pm    Post subject:

A guy that crushes lefties that plays outfield is Trumbo. He's on the market but I think the season he had - his price will be way too high.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2016 3:57 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
Snipes wrote:
Cespedes/Stanton cost way too much for what they give you in return. Zaidi/Friedman are never going to overpay for power bats to appease the fans. That's not how this FO works. If that was the case, Hanley and Kemp might still be here.


Hanley, although he played a decent first base for Boston this year, had lost the ability to play the infield for the Dodgers, which was the biggest reason that they made no attempt to re-sign him (and they had A-Gone at first base anyway). Kemp, meanwhile, has become one of the worst defensive outfielders of the past 20 years, and needs to be a DH in the AL. Cespedes adds defensive value, so that's a difference.

That said, I think the smart money is on the Dodgers eschewing a Cespedes signing if they can simply flip Puig for Braun. In a vacuum I prefer Cespedes, but he might get twice as much money and more years. Cespedes is probably going to command at least 5 years and at least $150MM, while Braun only has 4 years and $76MM left on his deal. If Puig is the only thing it costs to get Braun, I'm guessing the Dodgers would rather go that route. In looking at Braun's numbers, his performance has improved in each of the past 3 seasons, following his 2013 season where he missed most of the year. Perhaps as he's gotten further and further away from the steroid stuff, his body has slowly returned to its "normal" form. In any case, his OPS has gone from .777 in 2014 to .854 in '15 to .903 last season. And he doesn't have wild home/road splits like most Colorado hitters; his career home OPS is .925, but he's put up a strong .897 road mark. His defensive WAR has also improved in each of the past 3 seasons, going from -1.6 to -0.8 to 0.0, again suggesting that perhaps his body has recovered from his 2013 self. And while he's missed 27, 22, and 27 games in the past 3 seasons, Cespedes missed 30 games this past season. Braun also out-paced Cespedes in WAR in each of the last 2 seasons, and is only 1 year older.

In short, Braun has a longer track record, might cost half as much in money and less years to commit to, and is only 1 year older.


I agree with everything you said. I'm not sure if Cespedes will be worth the money, and it's going to take a lot. Braun comes in at a better price but I'm not sure if we can get a direct Puig for Braun swap. IF we can I am all for it even though rooting for Braun is going to be extremely difficult. One thing is for certain - Braun is an excellent hitter - and his spits vs lefties are downright scary.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2016 4:11 pm    Post subject:

Snipes wrote:
A guy that crushes lefties that plays outfield is Trumbo. He's on the market but I think the season he had - his price will be way too high.


My spidey senses are tingling with that guy. I don't know, 47 home runs at 30 years of age a season after hitting 22.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2016 4:12 pm    Post subject:

Any potential #2's within the realm of possibility for us?
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2016 4:37 pm    Post subject:

jonnybravo wrote:
Any potential #2's within the realm of possibility for us?


Hill is about it. There is NO starting pitching available this winter since Strasburg re-signed.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2016 4:40 pm    Post subject:

DuncanIdaho wrote:
jonnybravo wrote:
Any potential #2's within the realm of possibility for us?


Hill is about it. There is NO starting pitching available this winter since Strasburg re-signed.


That's right on the money. There is just nothing available on the starting pitching market in terms of frontline pitching, unless Otani gets posted. The trade market could be really active, but then we'd have to give up a lot of prospects and/or a guy like Joc. (Seager and Urias are untouchable. Perhaps De Leon for the right guy coming back.)
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2016 5:08 pm    Post subject:

Otani could probably set not only the highest contract for a Japanese baseball player but also be up there with one of the MLB's richest contracts. Not only is he of the best hitters in Japanese baseball but he also has a hell of an arm. He could easily fetch a 10 year/200+ million contract if he were to decide to go the MLB. I would imagine any team that wins his services will either keep him strictly as a hitter or pitcher. He won't be able to do both as he is right now in Japanese baseball.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2016 5:48 pm    Post subject:

jonnybravo wrote:
Snipes wrote:
A guy that crushes lefties that plays outfield is Trumbo. He's on the market but I think the season he had - his price will be way too high.

My spidey senses are tingling with that guy. I don't know, 47 home runs at 30 years of age a season after hitting 22.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2016 6:49 pm    Post subject:

Didn't see a general MLB thread, but just watched A. Miller on the mound with bases loaded. Guy got out of it unscathed. Pretty incredible.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2016 6:51 pm    Post subject:

leor_77 wrote:
Didn't see a general MLB thread, but just watched A. Miller on the mound with bases loaded. Guy got out of it unscathed. Pretty incredible.


He's about to go 13 scoreless innings in the playoffs. Lights out.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:00 pm    Post subject:

Hmmmm... Ethier to the D-Backs for Greinke + $30 million

Ethier has 1 year left $17.5M and a buyout of $2.5M. Ethier can block pretty much any trade but I think going home to Arizona might interest him, after all he was set to be traded for Montero until the owner didn't sign off.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:33 pm    Post subject:

RIP Cubbies.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:36 pm    Post subject:

lakersken80 wrote:
RIP Cubbies.


They can wait another 100 years!
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2016 10:33 pm    Post subject:

KobeRe-Loaded wrote:
Hmmmm... Ethier to the D-Backs for Greinke + $30 million

Ethier has 1 year left $17.5M and a buyout of $2.5M. Ethier can block pretty much any trade but I think going home to Arizona might interest him, after all he was set to be traded for Montero until the owner didn't sign off.


I don't think Arizona would have much interest in Ethier or Puig, actually. Their outfield is young and pretty set, with Pollock and Tomas and Peralta. Ethier or Puig wouldn't start over any of them. Not unless they had designs of flipping one of their young outfielders for a pitcher. Arizona's hitting really isn't their problem, particularly since they will presumably have a full season of Pollock next season. But they desperately need pitching.
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:27 pm    Post subject:

hopfully RYU gets back healthy. i don't see maeda as a solid #3. he's more of a #4.
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:44 pm    Post subject:

Krispy Kreme wrote:
hopfully RYU gets back healthy. i don't see maeda as a solid #3. he's more of a #4.


Honestly, I think the ship might have sailed on that barring a miracle recovery. 4 innings in two years. Even our young, foreign pitchers can't stay healthy. He'd be a godsend though if he came back in form.
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 27, 2016 10:07 pm    Post subject:

Hopefully the Dodgers can jettison some of these contracts that they have on hand as soon as they open up the wallet for Jansen and Turner. Pitching is always a premium in baseball, yet all the proposed trade rumors surrounding the Dodgers' potential starters always seem to revolve around them eating $$ on the deal, which I think is ludicrous with the market the way it is. I'm hoping they dump some salary on some desperate teams and recoup some good players or prospects that they gave up in the Hill/Reddick trade. Montas is looking good so far now that he's healthy. Holmes and Cotton look to be future contributors.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 28, 2016 2:54 pm    Post subject:

lakersken80 wrote:
If we are going to keep Puig, somebody get him a sports psychologist......doesn't make sense how somebody can go from a hitting machine to a damn scrub in a short period of time.


Except that his "scrub" seasons are basically league average. In four years, he's had two All-Star caliber seasons, one injury-plagued season, and whatever this season was (some injury, some vague off-field reasons for demotion).

He's only 25, and still has MVP-level potential. I think it's too soon to give up on him, although I think the writing is on the wall. His demotion had nothing to do with how he was playing, because he was one of their hottest hitters. Why they stubbornly refused to use him more often in the playoffs, in favor of far inferior players, is beyond me. It sounds like they just don't like his personality. They don't want fun guys. They want grinders. That's too bad. I'm sure the Dodgers will get a huge haul from any trade that he's involved in. I also have a hunch that the other team will still get the better of the deal.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 28, 2016 3:13 pm    Post subject:

Shalashaska wrote:
Gatekeeper wrote:
lakersken80 wrote:
If we are going to keep Puig, somebody get him a sports psychologist......doesn't make sense how somebody can go from a hitting machine to a damn scrub in a short period of time.


At least he'll keep base-runners honest with his arm. I've learned to give up on him offensively, FO needs to build the lineup with Puig in the bottom third of the order. Get some productive bats elsewhere. I'd leave out Joc if it means acquiring another all-star caliber outfielder.


Puig had a bit of a renaissance after his demotion.


His renaissance started long before the demotion. OPS .850 the second half of the season. That demotion was clearly about something else. Playing music too loud after losses? Not acting serious enough? I don't know.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 29, 2016 5:25 am    Post subject:

MickMgl wrote:
Shalashaska wrote:
Gatekeeper wrote:
lakersken80 wrote:
If we are going to keep Puig, somebody get him a sports psychologist......doesn't make sense how somebody can go from a hitting machine to a damn scrub in a short period of time.


At least he'll keep base-runners honest with his arm. I've learned to give up on him offensively, FO needs to build the lineup with Puig in the bottom third of the order. Get some productive bats elsewhere. I'd leave out Joc if it means acquiring another all-star caliber outfielder.


Puig had a bit of a renaissance after his demotion.


His renaissance started long before the demotion. OPS .850 the second half of the season. That demotion was clearly about something else. Playing music too loud after losses? Not acting serious enough? I don't know.


Yes, he was hitting pretty well immediately preceding his demotion, but that was for about two weeks or something like that. Then when he came back, they were only playing him against lefties. In other words, he still hasn't put together a stretch of sustained excellence as an everyday player since the middle of the 2014 season. Now, if you believe that he is still young and can absolutely still be a difference-maker, I'm not going to tell you that that would be an impossible scenario. What I am telling you, though, is that I think this FO is done with him, for various reasons.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 29, 2016 4:40 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
MickMgl wrote:
Shalashaska wrote:
Gatekeeper wrote:
lakersken80 wrote:
If we are going to keep Puig, somebody get him a sports psychologist......doesn't make sense how somebody can go from a hitting machine to a damn scrub in a short period of time.


At least he'll keep base-runners honest with his arm. I've learned to give up on him offensively, FO needs to build the lineup with Puig in the bottom third of the order. Get some productive bats elsewhere. I'd leave out Joc if it means acquiring another all-star caliber outfielder.


Puig had a bit of a renaissance after his demotion.


His renaissance started long before the demotion. OPS .850 the second half of the season. That demotion was clearly about something else. Playing music too loud after losses? Not acting serious enough? I don't know.


Yes, he was hitting pretty well immediately preceding his demotion, but that was for about two weeks or something like that. Then when he came back, they were only playing him against lefties. In other words, he still hasn't put together a stretch of sustained excellence as an everyday player since the middle of the 2014 season.


After he came back from the disabled list in June, through July, and when he returned in September, he was hitting well. Now, as to why they insisted on platooning him with lesser players, and in general marginalizing his role in the playoffs, that just felt like stubbornness and a need to justify their deadline trade. He does not have platoon splits. Over his career, he actually hits righties better than Reddick.

Maybe they wanted to rub his nose in it the rest of the season. Maybe he needed to be knocked down a peg. No guarantee that it would have changed the outcome, but it surely hurt their chances of reaching the World Series to make their point.


Quote:
Now, if you believe that he is still young and can absolutely still be a difference-maker, I'm not going to tell you that that would be an impossible scenario. What I am telling you, though, is that I think this FO is done with him, for various reasons.


I agree, although I want to be wrong.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 29, 2016 7:12 pm    Post subject:

MickMgl wrote:
lakersken80 wrote:
If we are going to keep Puig, somebody get him a sports psychologist......doesn't make sense how somebody can go from a hitting machine to a damn scrub in a short period of time.


Except that his "scrub" seasons are basically league average. In four years, he's had two All-Star caliber seasons, one injury-plagued season, and whatever this season was (some injury, some vague off-field reasons for demotion).

He's only 25, and still has MVP-level potential. I think it's too soon to give up on him, although I think the writing is on the wall. His demotion had nothing to do with how he was playing, because he was one of their hottest hitters. Why they stubbornly refused to use him more often in the playoffs, in favor of far inferior players, is beyond me. It sounds like they just don't like his personality. They don't want fun guys. They want grinders. That's too bad. I'm sure the Dodgers will get a huge haul from any trade that he's involved in. I also have a hunch that the other team will still get the better of the deal.


My feeling is that another manager or organization will probably somehow get him to play his best. I'm not sure what happened with Puig and this team but its gone downhill and he hasn't recovered. His contract is cheap considering how much potential he has. Would be kinda hilarious if he ends up on the Giants and has an MVP type season....
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