Joined: 10 Apr 2001 Posts: 65135 Location: Orange County, CA
Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:39 am Post subject:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
To the LG draftniks: any sleeper favorites out there?
Not just guys who you think will out-perform their projected draft position, but who you think have star upside - the Kawhi Leonard, Draymond Green, Nikola Jokic types who make conventional consensus look silly in hindsight.
I'm not going out on much of a limb, but PF/C Robert Williams has the physical tools, the skill foundation, and the mean streak to be a two-way star PF. I'd love an opportunity for the Lakers to pick him up in the late lottery, but Charlotte and Detroit may be the only teams in that range to send out a 1st rounder.
Any other star potential sleepers you see in this draft?
Bam Adebayo - A tier below Stoudemire but higher than Jason Thompson
TJ Leaf - Triple threat PF with a slow release? Still effective
Caleb Swanigan - Just not a fluid athlete, but beating down guys with size/hands and has a perimeter game
Luke Kennard - Better shooting Goran Dragic _________________ Resident Car Nut.
To the LG draftniks: any sleeper favorites out there?
Not just guys who you think will out-perform their projected draft position, but who you think have star upside - the Kawhi Leonard, Draymond Green, Nikola Jokic types who make conventional consensus look silly in hindsight.
I'm not going out on much of a limb, but PF/C Robert Williams has the physical tools, the skill foundation, and the mean streak to be a two-way star PF. I'd love an opportunity for the Lakers to pick him up in the late lottery, but Charlotte and Detroit may be the only teams in that range to send out a 1st rounder.
Any other star potential sleepers you see in this draft?
Bam Adebayo - A tier below Stoudemire but higher than Jason Thompson
TJ Leaf - Triple threat PF with a slow release? Still effective
Caleb Swanigan - Just not a fluid athlete, but beating down guys with size/hands and has a perimeter game
Luke Kennard - Better shooting Goran Dragic
I agree with you on Kennard. I think he's got star potential but is hurt by being white and from duke.
i think a guy we've already talked about in de'anthony melton has potential to be a star as well. already has elite defender profile, good physical profile, and potential on offense.
Joined: 10 Apr 2001 Posts: 65135 Location: Orange County, CA
Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:48 am Post subject:
DangeRuss wrote:
Wow, Tatum is getting a lot of love in here. Surprising. I don't like his game, doesn't look like a top tier prospect to me.. I question how much he will be able to offer in the NBA aside from ISO scoring. He's got great footwork, nice pull up jumper, some skills offensive moves, and an aesthetically pleasing offensive game but I haven't seen much else from him.. Not a creator, defense is meh, doesn't move great without the ball, passes when he must but looks like a last resort for him, good athlete, not great, shot selection is iffy. I wouldn't take him top 3, that's for sure. To me, the top 3 are essentially a lock between Jackson, fultz, and ball in no order with Isaac being the dark horse and outside chance at top 3. Tatum is in the tier with monk, and smith imo and shouldn't garner any real attention with our top 3 pick if we keep it.
My opinion just lines up with Sam Vecenie when it comes to Tatum. Even on today's podcast http://gametheorysam.libsyn.com/ (around 33:30 minute mark), Ricky O'Donnell (don't know who he is) doesn't think as highly of Tatum, but comps him to Harrison Barnes.
Sam, OTOH, noticed the past 4 games that the playmaking is up, the team concept is up.
My thing is, Tatum definitely had a better freshman year than Harrison Barnes and I expect his upside to be even higher than that. Optimistically (Paul George, just judging how they get shots / shot types).
Vecenie thinks higher of his defense and his ability to switch.
But basically, a 20ppg scorer, better Iso footwork, better 3pt shooting and FT% than Barnes? I want a go-to-guy in the draft. That would be the guy. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
Joined: 16 Jun 2005 Posts: 40345 Location: Dirty South
Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 10:03 am Post subject:
44TheLogo wrote:
MJST wrote:
Fultz
Looking more like a 2 at the next level. Which I think he'd excel at, actually have potential to be one of the best in the league at the 2.
You keep pushing this idea that fultz is a 2, and then say that this highlight vid supports that, yet i watch the video and see no reason for that. i gotta ask what you're seeing that makes you think he should be a 2. have you seen what harden and westbrook do? are they 1s or 2s?
I think wherever Fultz is drafted, he will be designated the PG, and changes will be made around Fultz at the PG.
To the LG draftniks: any sleeper favorites out there?
Not just guys who you think will out-perform their projected draft position, but who you think have star upside - the Kawhi Leonard, Draymond Green, Nikola Jokic types who make conventional consensus look silly in hindsight.
I'm not going out on much of a limb, but PF/C Robert Williams has the physical tools, the skill foundation, and the mean streak to be a two-way star PF. I'd love an opportunity for the Lakers to pick him up in the late lottery, but Charlotte and Detroit may be the only teams in that range to send out a 1st rounder.
Any other star potential sleepers you see in this draft?
Bam Adebayo - A tier below Stoudemire but higher than Jason Thompson
TJ Leaf - Triple threat PF with a slow release? Still effective
Caleb Swanigan - Just not a fluid athlete, but beating down guys with size/hands and has a perimeter game
Luke Kennard - Better shooting Goran Dragic
I can see all of that except for Adebayo who tops out as a bigger Tristan Thompson in my mind. There's a lot of solid PF talent in the draft and betting on the skill/production of Swanigan/Leaf makes sense.
Kennard is the player I really agree with as a potential star sleeper, though I'd be shocked if he ever ends up being the elite driver Dragic is. It'll be interesting to track his career alongside Monk's to see who ends up the better shooter.
Actually that shows 78 made 2 Pointers, and 63 made three pointers.
So yes, he has made more 2s than threes this year.
Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
And Jackson's form on his jumper HAS changed
And like I've said, I've already acknowledged that long ago. the difference is, Tatum is already 85%Ft. It's not like JJ is already 42% 3pt.
No but considering his form changed on his jumper, you'd be able to lay claim it is likely going to change on his free throws as well. Jump shot form is a lot harder to change than free throw form, mainly due to the fact jump shots are very reactionary and it's very easy to go back to what's comfortable especially when facing pressure and lose consistency. With free throws, not so much pressure and it becomes more a mental thing in general as no one is creating the pressure except for yourself. That's something I did take away from learning.
Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
I have, which is why I mentioned him, Kobe, and Derozan, as the most recognizable names where their great free throw percentage didn't mean they were great three point shooters. You'll find plenty of those as well.
Kobe once held a 3pt record for consecutive makes. I absolutely have no trouble with a 35% 3pt shooter but can get occasional fire. Definitely exceptions to the rule.
Yes, there's exceptions with them all, which is why it's not an exact science.
Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
With Exum his problem was also obvious when he got to NBA speed, HE could move as fast as he showed, but bringing the ball with him was the problem. Now 3 seasons in he's catching up to NBA speed and what's been happening? That handle has started working and that speed has started translating because he can now accelerate WITH the ball at NBA speed, when that was a problem his rookie year.
HS speed doesn't always translate to NCAA speed.
Nope, but considering Exum's really only had two years because his sophomore season was lost due to injury, the improvements he's made in terms of keeping the ball with him, which was the biggest problem has made his handles a lot more effective than they were his rookie season.
I always cite back to the time Clarkson dunked on him. After that steal there's no reason Exum should catch up to Clarkson, but he did, enough to be dunked on. I saw that and I was like "wow.. Exum really IS fast." at that point it was just about keeping the ball with him when he uses that speed, and thus because of that it's translated.
And no it doesn't always translate, which is why you can't always bet on it, however you can decipher when you see what the problem is at that next level, if it's a case of basics and game speed catching up to them, or if it's a case of opposition they faced. Dennis Smith Jr is a perfect example of this, his problems don't have to do with keeping the ball with him, but other general things that aren't so easy to fix. Exum's were. So it can really go either way, so you're correct there.
Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
Jason Kidd didn't find his jumper OR three point shot till 4-5 years into his career.
Shane Battier was a 74% free throw shooter but a 38% three point shooter
Jason Richardson shot 77-78% from the free throw line but career wise only 32% from three.
Chandler Parsons a 71% free throw shooter but a 38% three point shooter.
Sasha Pavlovic had multiple seasons where he shot great from three and bad from the free throw, even one season where he shot 40% from the three point line and 40ish% from the free throw line
Chris Webber had seasons where he shot over or at 40% from three and had a free throw percentage in the 50s...
Shows why Pavlovic had a short career.
Also, notice those guys are at least 70% FT.
Josh Jackson is.... roughly 15% below that. That's a huge chunk. I'd even argue those guys listed are closer to 80% from the FT line, than the 55% that Jackson is at.
Yeah, but it's the changed and improvement in his form translating into his free throw shooting that will be the question. The form on his jumper should be fine at the next level, it's more so the free throw form that will matter.
Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
I don't doubt he's going to. I thought the kid would never have his jumper till maybe midway through his 2nd NBA season
It's awesome to see the improvement. It doesn't always stick. Didn't stick for D'Lo. Didn't stick for Ingram. They were WAY hotter behind the arc as well. It's shocking how disappointing DLO's 3pt% in Feb/March compared to earlier in the season. DLO's form actually deconstructed from Ohio St. Now we see poor FG% with mechanics issues. Ingram? He needs a shot doctor now. Jackson? Even getting rid of a hitch on the gather, he still needs one. I find 55%FT pretty inexcusable.
Doesn't always stick, and then at times it does.
Again, we can't look at it from a defeatist perspective where we only focus on when it didn't, because then you pass up on someone it can.
Best we can do is look at the transition in his form and WHY good things are happening. Understand that if he continues to build on it (there's no reason he wouldn't) his free throw percentage will improve.
He would essentially shoot jumpers and free throws the same way, but now his jumper has changed which is what he's worked on, free throws is the next thing to have to come after that.
D'lo's shot to me from what I see the regression is at times rushing the shot and his feet mechanics due to rushing his shot and floating it a bit.
Very easy to see why that is, speed of the game is still catching up to him. It's not going to be something that takes a year to happen. THIS season started and he was still trying to figure out what he could and couldn't get away with when it came to passing the ball. But it's started to evolve and progress as the game continues to slow down for him.
You can assume with his jumper it will be the same way. His last game he was making a concerted effort to plant his feet correctly when he was getting his shot off and they did less 'floating' than they usually do. So that was something nice to see, it was VERY apparent on his makes. Which I was very happy with.
Ingram's problem is his form's starting point altogether, but we could cite in college that it was going to be a problem at the next level because he was a 6'9 guy who was getting his shot interrupted by 6'5 guys and be bailed out by his length.
It's the kind of problems I don't see with Ball, Fultz, or Tatum for that matter when it comes to getting their shot off as I've seen enough of it to know they can. With Ingram it always became a struggle.
The frustrating thing with Ingram is that he DOES have a jumpshot where he brings his shot where it correctly should be, but he does it only in certain situations to prevent it from being blocked, and it goes in.
He should default to that as his shot ALL the time from where he gathers and shoots it from. THAT is what the shot doctor needs to tell Ingram. That he shoots the ball 3 different ways, and only one is gonna bring him consistent success at this level.
Jackson's on the other hand, I don't get that vibe with.
To the LG draftniks: any sleeper favorites out there?
Not just guys who you think will out-perform their projected draft position, but who you think have star upside - the Kawhi Leonard, Draymond Green, Nikola Jokic types who make conventional consensus look silly in hindsight.
I'm not going out on much of a limb, but PF/C Robert Williams has the physical tools, the skill foundation, and the mean streak to be a two-way star PF. I'd love an opportunity for the Lakers to pick him up in the late lottery, but Charlotte and Detroit may be the only teams in that range to send out a 1st rounder.
Any other star potential sleepers you see in this draft?
Peter Jok
Peter Jok 29/6/8 vs Purdue
Peter Jok 40 vs Memphis
He hasn't looked the same since coming back from injury after missing a few games. Which may be enough that would allow him to slip in the draft be a sleeper the Lakers could get.
Will say, his shot was very much off vs Michigan State, but I was impressed at the other things he did. The 5 Rebounds the 8 Assists with just 1 TO and the 2 steals.
It tells me that the other aspects of his game aren't attached to whether his jumper is falling or not, and that mentally is a very good thing to see in a player known for his shooting.
Joined: 16 Jun 2005 Posts: 40345 Location: Dirty South
Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 10:45 am Post subject:
MJST wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
To the LG draftniks: any sleeper favorites out there?
Not just guys who you think will out-perform their projected draft position, but who you think have star upside - the Kawhi Leonard, Draymond Green, Nikola Jokic types who make conventional consensus look silly in hindsight.
I'm not going out on much of a limb, but PF/C Robert Williams has the physical tools, the skill foundation, and the mean streak to be a two-way star PF. I'd love an opportunity for the Lakers to pick him up in the late lottery, but Charlotte and Detroit may be the only teams in that range to send out a 1st rounder.
Any other star potential sleepers you see in this draft?
Peter Jok
Peter Jok 29/6/8 vs Purdue
Peter Jok 40 vs Memphis
He hasn't looked the same since coming back from injury after missing a few games. Which may be enough that would allow him to slip in the draft be a sleeper the Lakers could get.
he is not even on many of the draft boards, right? He put up 28 against Minnesota about a week ago. I liked him in the clips I have watched, but he sure does not get much attention. Are you an Iowa fan or something...just recall you mentioning him before....and I think I have only heard his name 1 or 2 other times this season outside of you.
He is Sudanese also, right? I would think Deng would be a great mentor.
Joined: 10 Apr 2001 Posts: 65135 Location: Orange County, CA
Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 10:48 am Post subject:
Quote:
Actually that shows 78 made 2 Pointers, and 63 made three pointers.
So yes, he has made more 2s than threes this year.
Okay. Once again. I have no problem with the efficiency. I do have a problem with his ability to get shots off in the painted area, not once he releases the shots. 57% of total shots are behind the arc.
Quote:
This is huge. Guess how many 2-point jump shots Lonzo Ball has made this season. That means a shot that isn't a 3-pointer, layup or dunk. Go ahead, think about it ... we have time. Alright, that's enough, you'll never get it.
Two.
According to Hoop-Math.com, Ball has made just two shots in 22 games so far this season that weren't 3s or dunks. And he has only attempted 11 of them. Eleven!
While you pick your jaw up off the floor, let's examine what that means. Some might tout the stat as a sign that Ball is ready for the modern NBA, a paragon of the Daryl Morey/Stephen Curry nature of a league where 3s reign supreme and we scoff at low-percentage 2-point jump shots...
And no it doesn't always translate, which is why you can't always bet on it, however you can decipher when you see what the problem is at that next level, if it's a case of basics and game speed catching up to them, or if it's a case of opposition they faced. Dennis Smith Jr is a perfect example of this, his problems don't have to do with keeping the ball with him, but other general things that aren't so easy to fix. Exum's were. So it can really go either way, so you're correct there.
Exum's problem showed during the rookie year. Prior to injury.
Quote:
Very easy to see why that is, speed of the game is still catching up to him
We see a different game. Considering the number of open looks, I don't really see defenders flooding out to him as a shooter with DLO rushing his shot, especially in comparison to Ingram.
With Ingram, I was concerned about the action of the forearm to the follow through. It never looked the same speed twice. This is especially why I don't want him looking at the ball, at his own shot, while he's releasing it. Players may adapt/change the shot in mid form. What happens? No muscle memory. No wonder why I'm not surprised about him airballing FTs.
Quote:
Understand that if he continues to build on it (there's no reason he wouldn't) his free throw percentage will improve.
Funny. That's exactly how I feel about Tatum's playmaking. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
Joined: 16 Jun 2005 Posts: 40345 Location: Dirty South
Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 10:54 am Post subject:
Mike, I recall asking you who would slip the most OG Anunoby or Giles, and you thought OG Anunoby....and even if I didn't say at the time, I agreed with you. I see the most recent DX projections now has Giles behind OG Anunoby for the first time. If Giles falls to the 20's, that would be a smart risk for a team.
Joined: 10 Apr 2001 Posts: 65135 Location: Orange County, CA
Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:00 am Post subject:
adkindo wrote:
Mike, I recall asking you who would slip the most OG Anunoby or Giles, and you thought OG Anunoby....and even if I didn't say at the time, I agreed with you. I see the most recent DX projections now has Giles behind OG Anunoby for the first time. If Giles falls to the 20's, that would be a smart risk for a team.
I don't know. As good as Giles looks now, he looks 3/4 of the guy he was in HS. Just a plethora of injury risk. Giles is the guy that playoff teams want because they don't need to rely on production for 1-2 years and he can focus on physical and skills development.
Joined: 16 Jun 2005 Posts: 40345 Location: Dirty South
Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:05 am Post subject:
Mike@LG wrote:
adkindo wrote:
Mike, I recall asking you who would slip the most OG Anunoby or Giles, and you thought OG Anunoby....and even if I didn't say at the time, I agreed with you. I see the most recent DX projections now has Giles behind OG Anunoby for the first time. If Giles falls to the 20's, that would be a smart risk for a team.
I don't know. As good as Giles looks now, he looks 3/4 of the guy he was in HS. Just a plethora of injury risk. Giles is the guy that playoff teams want because they don't need to rely on production for 1-2 years and he can focus on physical and skills development.
about what I meant in the 20's....huge reward if he gets back to form in a year. I still think he is very uncomfortable mentally from the injury. I have played with guys in football that come back from knee injury that go back to full tilt, and others come back and can run a similar 40, but terrified to plant and make a hard cut for a while.
Joined: 10 Apr 2001 Posts: 65135 Location: Orange County, CA
Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:11 am Post subject:
adkindo wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
adkindo wrote:
Mike, I recall asking you who would slip the most OG Anunoby or Giles, and you thought OG Anunoby....and even if I didn't say at the time, I agreed with you. I see the most recent DX projections now has Giles behind OG Anunoby for the first time. If Giles falls to the 20's, that would be a smart risk for a team.
I don't know. As good as Giles looks now, he looks 3/4 of the guy he was in HS. Just a plethora of injury risk. Giles is the guy that playoff teams want because they don't need to rely on production for 1-2 years and he can focus on physical and skills development.
about what I meant in the 20's....huge reward if he gets back to form in a year. I still think he is very uncomfortable mentally from the injury. I have played with guys in football that come back from knee injury that go back to full tilt, and others come back and can run a similar 40, but terrified to plant and make a hard cut for a while.
It's not just that. Can he stay healthy? Even Embiid is out again, and he had years to recover. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
To the LG draftniks: any sleeper favorites out there?
Not just guys who you think will out-perform their projected draft position, but who you think have star upside - the Kawhi Leonard, Draymond Green, Nikola Jokic types who make conventional consensus look silly in hindsight.
I'm not going out on much of a limb, but PF/C Robert Williams has the physical tools, the skill foundation, and the mean streak to be a two-way star PF. I'd love an opportunity for the Lakers to pick him up in the late lottery, but Charlotte and Detroit may be the only teams in that range to send out a 1st rounder.
Any other star potential sleepers you see in this draft?
Peter Jok
Peter Jok 29/6/8 vs Purdue
Peter Jok 40 vs Memphis
He hasn't looked the same since coming back from injury after missing a few games. Which may be enough that would allow him to slip in the draft be a sleeper the Lakers could get.
he is not even on many of the draft boards, right? He put up 28 against Minnesota about a week ago. I liked him in the clips I have watched, but he sure does not get much attention. Are you an Iowa fan or something...just recall you mentioning him before....and I think I have only heard his name 1 or 2 other times this season outside of you.
He is Sudanese also, right? I would think Deng would be a great mentor.
Wow, he's not even on some of the draft boards? That guy looks like a baller to me.. Don't know what else you want from a second round prospect. Shot making ability is there in spades, looks like a potentially elite 3 pt shooter (only 37 % but on high volume/difficulty), looks like he has a solid handle and good vision. Honestly reminded me a bit of Kobe-lite.
I know he's a senior, but that guy can play. I'd love to buy another 2nd in the 40-50 range to get him.
Joined: 16 Jun 2005 Posts: 40345 Location: Dirty South
Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:23 am Post subject:
Mike@LG wrote:
It's not just that. Can he stay healthy? Even Embiid is out again, and he had years to recover.
who knows, and Embiid's time frame was complicated more than it should have been....I get there is a risk, but if it works in your favor, you look like a genius...because I think we all recognize there is top half lottery talent in there if his body cooperates
Joined: 16 Jun 2005 Posts: 40345 Location: Dirty South
Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:26 am Post subject:
AY2043 wrote:
adkindo wrote:
MJST wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
To the LG draftniks: any sleeper favorites out there?
Not just guys who you think will out-perform their projected draft position, but who you think have star upside - the Kawhi Leonard, Draymond Green, Nikola Jokic types who make conventional consensus look silly in hindsight.
I'm not going out on much of a limb, but PF/C Robert Williams has the physical tools, the skill foundation, and the mean streak to be a two-way star PF. I'd love an opportunity for the Lakers to pick him up in the late lottery, but Charlotte and Detroit may be the only teams in that range to send out a 1st rounder.
Any other star potential sleepers you see in this draft?
Peter Jok
Peter Jok 29/6/8 vs Purdue
Peter Jok 40 vs Memphis
He hasn't looked the same since coming back from injury after missing a few games. Which may be enough that would allow him to slip in the draft be a sleeper the Lakers could get.
he is not even on many of the draft boards, right? He put up 28 against Minnesota about a week ago. I liked him in the clips I have watched, but he sure does not get much attention. Are you an Iowa fan or something...just recall you mentioning him before....and I think I have only heard his name 1 or 2 other times this season outside of you.
He is Sudanese also, right? I would think Deng would be a great mentor.
Wow, he's not even on some of the draft boards? That guy looks like a baller to me.. Don't know what else you want from a second round prospect. Shot making ability is there in spades, looks like a potentially elite 3 pt shooter (only 37 % but on high volume/difficulty), looks like he has a solid handle and good vision. Honestly reminded me a bit of Kobe-lite.
I know he's a senior, but that guy can play. I'd love to buy another 2nd in the 40-50 range to get him.
he got a DUI a while back at Iowa....but he was on a moped! I mean if your going to get a DUI, a moped has to be the most responsible way to get one....your really only putting yourself at risk on a moped.
Joined: 10 Apr 2001 Posts: 65135 Location: Orange County, CA
Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:38 am Post subject:
adkindo wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
It's not just that. Can he stay healthy? Even Embiid is out again, and he had years to recover.
who knows, and Embiid's time frame was complicated more than it should have been....I get there is a risk, but if it works in your favor, you look like a genius...because I think we all recognize there is top half lottery talent in there if his body cooperates
In June 2013, Giles suffered a torn ACL, MCL and meniscus in his left knee. Two years later, the 18-year-old partially tore his right ACL shortly after the 2015-16 season tipped off.
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